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Parting Ways – The Strategy

The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified see...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2425/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary

News came overnight that China booked two-three cargoes of soybeans from the U.S. PNW, despite yesterday’s indications that the Chinese government wa...

PM Post - Down Means Up

THE OPEN July beans: 4 1/2 higher July meal:  1.00 higher July soyoil:  23 higher July corn:  1 higher July wheat:  2 lower Prices were...

Parallels 52 Years Later

Over fifty years separate 1968 and 2020 yet there are parallels. Both years have involved contentious U.S. national elections, political turbulence, violen...

Technical Views - Bouncing Along

SPREADS August crush trades higher to 88.88% with oilshare firmer at 32.93%.  July contracts are beginning to get rolled forward which tightens up the...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, west of Karachi, has received its first vessel of wheat and fer...

AM Outlook - Mostly Higher

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to begin the morning with funds purchasing soyoil futures on the back of sharply higher palm oil.   Beans are firm...

Market Commentary

The most significant development in today’s CBOT trade is that soybeans finished with only quarter-cent losses despite rumors of a cessation in Chine...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Phase One Trade Deal in the Middle of U.S. China Tensions

As protests turn to urban riots in a number of U.S. cities, the social media rhetoric from China has been ratcheted up a notch trolling the U.S., including...

China on Imports from U.S.; Hogan’s Hero

China on Imports from U.S. The trade is said to be confused. There are conflicting reports with one stating that Beijing has ordered state-owned enterprise...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics The macro situation in Argentina is really complicated. The quarantine started on 19 March and since then almost 60-70 percent of the indust...

PM Post - Not Completely Bearish

THE OPEN July beans:  1/2 lower July meal:  .80 higher July soyoil:  3 lower July corn:  4 1/2 lower July wheat:  8 1/4 lower Pric...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  After an amazingly dry spring, rains are forecast to return to Europe this week and next. The GFS model projects meaningful rainfall fo...

Different Year for Commodities

The final May HRW futures price was down just 3 cents from a year earlier and though the value of corn closed out the month slightly higher, it was down ne...

Technical Views - Inverting Low Meal/High Oil

SPREADS August crush trades to 88.53c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.44%.  Jul/Dec corn trades from 12 1/4c out to 13 3/4c, while July/Sep trades from...

AM Outlook - Hong Kong Implications

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning after President Trump said he would halt special status for China's handling of Hong Kong.   Reported...

Transatlantic Split on China

The U.S. was joined by Canada, the UK and Australia in condemning China’s accession of Hong Kong, but not the EU. President Trump charged Beijing wit...

Market Commentary

The two biggest impacts on commodity prices right now are politics and the weather, with the latter oddly being more predictable. U.S. President Donald Tru...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2575/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...

PM Post - Politics and Weather

THE OPEN July beans:  6 lower July meal:  .90 lower July soyoil:  13 lower July corn:  3/4 lower July wheat:  3/4 lower Prices ope...

2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up

EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 209,800 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 19 percent from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...

Technical Views - Mixed and Sideways

SPREADS August crush trades to 86.89c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.52%.  Corn spreads remain firm as traders begin to spread July contracts forward...

AM Outlook - Mixed Against Beans/For Grains

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with firmer grains vs. weaker beans and meal.  Beans continue to find a lack of buying interest with tensi...

Governance Challenges

The EU may reach agreement on a €750 billion package of grants and loans that boasts of a “green component” to further the bloc’s co...

Ag Review - May 2020

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the COVID-19 impact on workers in the f...

Market Commentary

Chicago and Wall Street both seemed to mostly ignore the geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington. Chicago traded as called with spreads revers...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close.  Jul...

Livestock Round Up: Meat Industry Facing World of Confusion

Yesterday’s daily cattle slaughter was 110,000 head, up 9 percent from the prior Wednesday’s kill of 101,000 head but down 17 percent from the...

PM Post - The Day Spent Spreading

THE OPEN July beans:  4 lower July meal:  steady July soyoil:  35 lower July corn:  1/2 higher July wheat:  1/2 higher The feature...

Stories Told by Bulls

Grain and soy futures markets have generally been quiet and dull during the past few weeks as most attention has understandably been focused on the impact...

Technical Views - Sell Oil Buy Grain

SPREADS August crush trades to 82.17c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.56%.  July/Dec corn trades into 13c from 14c, while July/Sep trades from 3 3/4c o...

AM Outlook - Highly Technical Corn Risk

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with profit-taking in oilshare and grains firmer vs. lower beans and soyoil.  Corn trades firmer on more p...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, how...

Hong Kong is Trouble; EU Mugs the FAANG’s; Kenya’s Burdens

Hong Kong is Trouble Under a requirement from Congress, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notified that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China. Th...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.205/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.045/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Dalian Futures Market Analysis

Monthly Summary April Activity Shows Market Volatility Easing Post Shutdown The novel coronavirus outbreak and lengthy shutdown across China sent the futur...

Inside the Food and Ag Economy

Seaboard, a relatively smaller meat processor, reported that 22 percent of its employees tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. That is not too far behind...

PM Post - China Fears and Nearing a Correction

THE OPEN July beans:  3 higher July meal:  .40 higher July soyoil:  21 higher July corn:  1 1/2 higher July wheat:  1 higher The m...

China In-Country Analysis

Politics Turning a Pandemic Into a Man-Made Political Disaster With global novel coronavirus cases surpassing 5.6 million and total deaths rising to just o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18 - 22 May 2020 Prices on the domestic grain market moved in different directions and changed differently in different regions. One...

Technical Views - Another Bullish Day

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare moves to 32.60%.   Spreads are slightly firmer with July/Dec corn trading into 14 1/4c from 14...

AM Outlook - Short-covering Tone Continues

GOOD MORNING, Prices remain firm with beans and soyoil in the lead while grains are firmer as well.  The short-covering tone that started Tues. contin...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened higher Monday night and continued that trend into Tuesday morning with export rumors and macroeconomic developments supporting values. Corn...

China Speared Then Perhaps Retaliates; Comeback Economy

China Speared Then Perhaps Retaliates Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s accusation that his rival, President Trump, has been to...

CFAP Confusion and Disarray Making Headlines

Today is the day when farmers can start applying for the $16 billion in Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) direct payments. FSA has announced that...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.19/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

Facebook Meat Math

A meme circulating on the internet, likely started by R-CALF, goes like this: Ok, a 1300-pound animal is bought for $0.95 per pound by the packers and 40 p...

PM Post - Lots of Upward Influences

THE OPEN July beans: 6 higher July meal:  1.10 higher July soyoil:  37 higher July corn:  2 1/4 higher July wheat:  1 1/2 lower The mar...

CFTC Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Gemcorp Commodities is reportedly supplying 200,000 MT of Russian wheat to Ethiopia with the...

Technical Views - Mostly Higher

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 92c/bu while oilshare is at 32.0%.  July/Dec corn firms to 13 3/4c from 15c, while July/Sep. narrows into 4 1/2c from 5c...

AM Outlook - Weather Improvements

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with weakness emerging in wheat but supported elsewhere on the board.    More talk of China buying an...

Meat Policy Necessity

Wuhan confirms that in addition to the national ban on wild animal trade, the city of Wuhan reportedly has banned hunting wild animals and their trade on o...

Cattle on Feed Report Shows Processing Bottleneck

USDA released its cattle on feed report today and as expected marketings were at an historic low (since records began in 1996) at 1.46 million head. Placem...

Memorial Day Holiday

Monday, 25 May is a U.S. holiday, and the markets and our office are closed that day. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on 26 May...

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT and CME markets will be closed on Monday, 25 May and WPI’s offices will be similarly shutdown.  The CBOT finished the week with s...

Cattle on Feed

USDA reports that U.S. Cattle on Feed is down 5 percent from 2019 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more – totaling 11.2 million head on May...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.18/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.0875/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...

April Cold Storage Report

The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and intrepretation for the latest Cold Storage report, published 21 May 2020 by the USDA. Briefly,...

Let Them Have Meat

Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australi...

Market Commentary

The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the p...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.1775/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.16/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...

WTO Foil; Small and Dangerous

WTO Foil Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) added arguments to his call for a U.S. withdrawal from the WTO but they are not necessarily good ones. Hawley wil...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 175,800 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 14 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:...

PM Post - Weakness Except in Wheat

Note: There will be no Technical Perspectives reports on Friday, 22 May. Markets are closed on Monday, 25 May. THE OPEN July beans: 2 1/2 lower July meal:&...

Self-Quarantine Thoughts

We are sheltering in place during The Attack of Covid-19, listening to health experts and politicians debate responses to the spread of the disease. We are...

Technical Perspectives - Lower Except Wheat

Note: There will be no Technical Perspectives reports on Friday, 22 May. SPREADS July crush trades to 83.50c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.43%.  July...

AM Outlook - Firmer Soyoil and Wheat

Note: There will be no Technical Perspectives reports on Friday, 22 May. GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to drive into trading range territory as the markets...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with wheat leading the way higher, soybeans firming with support from soyoil and short covering in soymeal while corn established itself as...

EU’s F2F Moonshot

Europe’s new Farm to Fork strategy includes ambitious targets to reduce fertilizer and pesticide use, which should yield some skepticism. The goal is...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1375/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Drought in Europe

The current hot, dry conditions affecting Europe are raising concern about the impact on crop conditions. The area of concern includes northwestern France,...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 May 2020 Milling and feed wheat prices as well as corn prices kept growing in the domestic grain market while feed barley pric...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock New Study Points to Steady Recovery in China’s Hog Herd The Rural Development Research Institute of the China Academy of Social Sciences, a...

PM Post - Corn Sell, Wheat Buy

THE OPEN July beans:  4 higher July meal:  1.90 higher July soyoil: 10 higher July corn:  1 1/2 lower July wheat:  4 1/2 higher The mar...

Technical Views - Separate Directions

SPREADS July crush trades at 85.55c/bu while oilshare weakens to 32.15%.   July/Nov beans trades from 7 1/2c out to 8 1/4c.  July/Sep corn t...

AM Outlook - Business and Weather

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher this morning with corn returning as the weaker leg.   Wheat is seeing a bounce courtesy of a weaker US dol...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened mixed with soybeans coming under pressure from reversal of old long soybeans/short corn/wheat trades and from new contract lows in soymeal...

CFAP Direct Payment Details

As previewed yesterday, the Administration announced the details of the $16 billion COVID-19 relief direct payment program – the Coronavirus Food Ass...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2125/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Falling Out of Favor

The EU is the largest consumer of rapeseed, followed by China, Canada and India. Its use in number three Canada and number four India has been rising, but...

PM Post - Firmer Heading out the Door

THE OPEN July beans:  2 higher July meal;  .10 lower July soyoil:  10 higher July corn:  3 1/2 higher July wheat:  2 1/2 higher Th...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shi...

Technical Views - The Day and Trend Diverge

SPREADS July crush trades down to 84.40c/bu while oilshare firms to 32.49%.   Corn spreads are firmer on short-covering, with July/Sep trading fr...

AM Outlook - Constructive Conditions

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher as traders wait to see if there is follow-through buying activity from China.  Crop ratings were a bit construc...

Direct Payments Coming, Purchases Creating Milk Bubble

The new $16 billion Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) direct payments from USDA will be unveiled tomorrow. Payments are targeted to be made in lat...

Market Commentary

A rally in crude oil and rumors of Chinese crushers needing to book soybeans and soyoil helped the CBOT open firmer. Corn and soybeans traded higher for th...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2075/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $4.97/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

WTO Strategy; COVID Changes What?; Caretakers Not Farmers

WTO Strategy U.S. Ambassador to the WTO Dennis Shea told Friday’s General Council meeting that addressing the organization’s future should wait...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn The corn harvest is still moving at a slow pace as farmers are focused on soybeans. Farmers harvested 1.8 percent of the area last week (versus almost...

PM Post - As Called and Steady Path

THE OPEN July beans:  6 1/2 higher July meal:  .40 lower July soyoil:  48 higher July corn:  2 1/4 higher July wheat:  3 1/2 lower...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  In Monday’s Crop Monitoring bulletin, the European Commission noted that spring weather, which predominantly featured above-avera...

Recession Impact on Meat Consumption

As noted in the analysis on recession impacts on grain demand, the Great Recession is an imperfect proxy for predicting the impacts on the current global e...

Technical Views - Buy Bean/Sell Wheat; Buy Soyoil/Sell Meal

SPREADS July crush trades to 87.59c/bu while oilshare firms to 32.0%.  Jly/Dec corn trades from 12c to 12 1/2c, while July/Sep trades from 3 1/2c out...

AM Outlook - Risk on for the Day

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, lower wheat and higher elsewhere.  Outside markets are sharply higher with US stocks up over 600 pts, ind...

Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments

As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.1925/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary

The CBOT ended the week mixed on lackluster volume with encouraging near-term demand developments being outweighed by the May WASDE’s large supply fo...

Faux Pas; Naturally Wrong

Faux Pas Technical level EU trade officials were meeting today to discuss how to put transatlantic trade relations back on a better course. The success of...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

  The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...

Recession Impacts on Consumption

The economic impact on agriculture from the global coronavirus pandemic is still unknown but it cannot be good. Some speculate that recovery from a policy...

PM Post - Different Stories

THE OPEN July beans:  3 higher July meal:  .50 higher July osyoil:  15 higher July corn:  1 1/4 higher July wheat:  3 1/2 higher T...

Technical Views - Mixed Day of Testing

SPREADS July crush trades to 87.42c/bu while oilshare trades firmer at 31.36%.   July/Sep corn trades from 4c to 4 1/4c, while July /Dec firms in...

AM Outlook - Friday Bounce

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher this morning on short-covering as we head into the growing season and begin to get the Good/Excellent rating category for c...

Market Commentary

Some of the bearish pressure on the market is said to be coming from the uncertainties associated with COVID-19, though there are now more knowns than a fe...

Livestock Round Up: COVID Policy Prescriptions for Ag

Cattle and hog slaughter is starting to rebound as plants reopen. Last week’s export sales reflect the state of the packing industry; net beef sales...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.175/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Fake Crisis in Food; Where’s the Beef

Fake Crisis in Food Politicians and populists groups issued a letter to international organizations demanding a “well-organized global effort”...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 203,500 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 17 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:...

A World of Grain

USDA released its May WASDE Tuesday. The May WASDE is always interesting since it includes USDA’s updated projections on U.S. and world supplies and...

PM Post - Defensive Tone Today

THE OPEN July beans:  2 1/2 lower July meal:  1.20 lower July soyoil:  3 higher July corn:  3/4 higher July wheat:  3 lower Prices...

Technical News - No Bull

SPREADS July crush trades higher from lows of 75c/bu to 85c/bu with oilshare just under 31.0% to 30.91%.  July /Dec corn trades into 13 1/2c from 14c...

AM Outlook - Seeking Bottom of the Range

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower on technical downside activity from yesterday's trade.  Negative trade rhetoric continues between the US/China over the...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened mixed but quickly found solid selling pressure as wheat futures tumbled lower under pressure from yesterday’s WASDE that forecast lar...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.1825/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.0175/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&...

Takes Time to Work Off Surpluses

USDA’s forecast for U.S. corn use in 2020/21 may be as over-optimistic as its prediction for 2019/20 corn exports, but at this juncture prices have n...

PM Post - Waiting for Something

THE OPEN July beans:  1 1/4 lower July meal:   .10 lower July soyoil:  7 higher July corn:  1 3/4 lower July wheat:  5 1/2 lo...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls Below 15 Percent in April Average food prices for April increased year-on-year by 14.8 percent, down from 18.3 percent...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 May 2020 Prices continued to grow in the Asian part of the domestic grain market and moved in different directions in the Europe...

Technical Views - Post-report Meandering

SPREADS July crush firms to 81.74c/bu while oilshare is steady at 31.14%.  July /Dec corn trades into 13 3/4c from 14 1/4c, and values that were out t...

AM Outlook - Onus is on the Market

GOOD MORNING, The May WASDE has come and gone, and technically the markets did not break down.  Quite the contrary, as the focus of the report was hug...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Estimates – U.S. soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents from 2019/20...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA Estimates - U.S. soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $10.00 from 2019/20.  ...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Estimates - outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks in 2020/21.  The soybean crop is projected...

WASDE Corn

USDA Estimates – U.S. corn crop is projected at a record 16.0 billion bushels, up from last year on increased area and a return to trend yield. ...

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks.  The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent fr...

Dairy Glut Problem

Unlike other animal protein products, dairy was in trouble before the COVID-19 crisis. The problem has been a failure to grow demand as fast as production...

Market Commentary

CBOT markets opened on the defensive with traders cautious ahead of the May WASDE. The market was expecting a bearish report and that pressured the soybean...

Bearish WASDE for Livestock and Poultry

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast down 5.6 percent from the March WASDE estimates, but only 1.5 percent lowe...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...

PM Post - Win for the Bull

THE OPEN July beans: 1 higher July meal:  .40 higher July soyoil:  2 lower July corn:  1 1/4 lower July wheat:  5 1/2 lower The board o...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Morocco has announced that the suspension of duty on common wheat will be extended beyond 15...

Technical Views - Choppy Day Ahead

SPREADS July crush trades to 75.17c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.25%.   Corn spreads weaken this AM with July /Dec trading back out to 16 1/2c...

AM Outlook - WASDE Expectations versus Reality

GOOD MORNING, The May WASDE report will be released at 11:00 central time.  The advertised estimates include higher 20/21 ending stocks for corn with...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a higher note with soybeans finding solid support on technical buying as well as rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. product. Soymeal an...

China Plays Offense; EU Plays Offense

China Plays Offense We discussed on Friday the worsening outlook for U.S. – China relations and today Beijing one-upped the Trump Administration. Pre...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.185/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close...

Wildly Fluctuating Peas

Alternative proteins have become the rage in food processing, though there is now an argument that Americans have switched back to more traditional foods a...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Flat prices are low and are even lower for deferred positions. Grain sales are liquidated in Argentine pesos at the official exchange rate of about 65...

PM Post - Higher Ahead of Bearish Report

THE OPEN July beans:  6 3/4 higher July meal:  1.70 higher July soyoil:  11 higher July corn:  2 3/4 higher July wheat:  1 1/4 hig...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The weather across Europe has shifted from an extremely dry pattern earlier this spring to a wetter, more normal pattern in the past tw...

Technical Views - Higher in Range

SPREADS July crush trades to 80.92c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.23%.    July/Dec corn trades from 15 1/2c out to 16 1/4.  July/Dec wheat...

AM Outlook - Position Evening Ahead of tomorrow

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly firmer, with beans reaching a one month high overnight and wheat prices turning mixed from higher.  Prices are higher...

Fed Cattle Set Aside Program?

As we have discussed in the past, livestock production has little wiggle room to cope with the processing shutdowns and the demand destruction and volatili...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with funds covering part of their short positions ahead of the May WASDE. Cold weather forecast for most of the Midwest and...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

  The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...

Favorites’ Punishment

The impact of the coronavirus on most national economies is blunt and harmful but especially to those countries that were already poorly structured. Like m...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.1925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Firmer Heading into the Weekend

THE OPEN: July beans: 7 higher July meal: 1.20 higher July soyoil: 35 higher July corn: 2 3/4 higher July wheat: 1/2 higher Prices opened as expected wit...

Technical Views - Upside Constructive

SPREADS July crush trades to 79c/bu, while oilshare firms to 31.44%.  Spreads are firmer with July/Dec corn narrowing into 15c from 16 1/4c, (and valu...

AM Outlook - Look for Furthering Strength

GOOD MORNING,  Prices continue to rebound this week on the back of more Chinese purchases of US goods, as an announced conference call next week betwe...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 244,800 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...

Ambitious F2F; COVID Ironies

Ambitious F2F The EU is getting closer to releasing its Farm to Fork plan for completely remaking its food system and it is ambitious. So ambitious that it...

Market Commentary

It was a technical runup today that will correct lower but there is a Chinese curveball in play. The fundamentals remain weak – look at today’s...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.18/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  J...

PM Post - Temporary Highs

THE OPEN July beans: 4 1/2 higher July meal:  .40 higher July soyoil:  29 higher July corn:  3 1/2 higher July wheat:  6 higher The mar...

China to the Rescue?

It is commonly accepted that without a major crop production disaster in the Northern and/or Southern Hemisphere, the fundamental outlook for U.S. corn, wh...

Technical Views - Firming Trend

SPREADS Spreads are firmer with all deliveries gone.  May/July corn trades into 2 1/2c from 3c, bringing some strength to July/Dec which trades into 1...

AM Outlook - Moving Up Channel

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to congest in trading ranges looking for different data, weather, or macro events to move them one way or the other.  Th...

China In-Country Analysis

Politics The Danger of Hot Rhetoric and Conspiracy Theories With President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo continuing to place blame on China for...

Market Commentary

Low volume trade left CBOT grain markets to trade lower with little to encourage buyers to make purchases, despite prices being near contract lows. Improvi...

Dis-integrating Global Economy; Airplane War Update

Dis-integrating Global Economy Economists warn that protectionism will slow the global recovery but both governments and companies now view the retreat fro...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.1425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.175/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close...

Dollar versus Exportable Stocks

Chicago futures have major agricultural commodities at some of their weakest prices in years and yet exports do not seem to be responding to their appeal...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-30 April 2020 Prices on the domestic grain market continued to grow. Meanwhile on the export market, milling wheat average price...

PM Post - Mostly Lower on a Soft Bottom

THE OPEN July beans: down 1 1/2  July meal:   .90 higher July soyoil:  38 lower July corn:  1 1/4 lower July wheat:   4...

Technical Views - Mostly Sideways

SPREADS May/July beans continues to be supported by the lack of deliveries against the May.  July/Nov bean spread chops around supported by recent dem...

AM Outlook - Bouncing Along

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with corn gaining on wheat, and meal on soyoil.  Soyoil futures were supported yesterday by the news of $1...

Market Commentary

CBOT trade was slow and mixed for most of Tuesday, with a slight uptick in commercial pricing interest supporting corn, soybean, and SRW wheat values. Fund...

U.S. Ag Trade Deficit and Meat Outlook

According to USDA’s latest agricultural trade data, the overall ag trade balance in March was negative. The U.S. ran a trade deficit of $502 million...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.17/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...

Meat Fight on the Election Menu

Meat packing has now become part of the 2020 U.S. presidential campaign. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden declared worker conditions in these plant...

India Hurts its Own Dairy Market

There is a global abundance of grain and oilseeds and while meat animals are being euthanized due to a lack of slaughter capacity and total production is d...

PM Post - Macros Lead Turnaround

THE OPEN July beans:  3 3/4 lower July meal:  .50 higher July soyoil;  23 higher July corn: 2 1/2 higher July wheat: 3 1/2 lower Stocks and...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Egypt reports that local wheat purchases by the government are now at 1 MMT well on the way t...

Technical Views - Shorts and Small Bounces

SPREADS July crush trades to 86.35c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.46%.  July /Dec corn narrows into 17 1/4c from 18c, and vs. values that reached 19c...

AM Outlook - Mixed Trying to Define Value

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today as higher energies add support to corn and soyoil.  Soyoil futures are higher, but the basis is falling apart, as...

Wrong Negotiations; ROO Trumps Substantial Transformation

Wrong Negotiations Washington and London kick off two weeks of videoconference trade negotiations this week, hoping to reach an agreement this year. The ga...

Market Commentary

The CBOT was called to open weaker after a weekend of favorable weather and expected planting progress in the U.S., combined with welcome rains across Euro...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.155/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

WHO Guidance Effectiveness

The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats suc...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Heavy rains that fell across a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural area last week slowed the arrival of trucks to export ports. The number...

PM Post - Down but with some Small Bounces

THE OPEN July beans:  12 3/4 lower July meal:  3.20 lower July soyoil:  57 lower July corn:  5 lower July wheat:  7 1/4 lower Pric...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Last week, Europe was facing widespread drought conditions and one of the driest 60-day springtime periods since the 1970’s. That...

Technical Views - Multiple Lows

SPREADS July crush trades to 87c/bu while oilshare moves back below 31.0% to 30.85%.  July /Dec corn trades to 18 3/4c from 18 1/4c, while May/July tr...

AM Outlook - Under Pressure

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower as the end of month short-covering is over and good weekend weather probably saw crops going into the ground in a big way.&n...

Market Commentary

One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on di...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.185/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&n...

Worker Welfare Battle

Now that some political jurisdictions are beginning to open with varying interpretations of safety, it has elevated the question of when is it safe to go b...

Policy Fallout from COVID-19

The Senate will return to session on Monday. Though the House will not return, debate on a fourth COVID-19 relief package will begin. This likely will be t...

PM Post - Done for the Week

THE OPEN July beans:  5 3/4 lower July meal:  1.00 lower July soyoil:  30 lower July corn:  2 lower July wheat:  4 lower Prices st...

Technical Views - Risk Off

SPREADS July crush trades to 85.54c/bu while oilsahre is slightly weaker trading down to 30.93%.  July /Dec corn firms to 17c from 17 1/2c, while May/...

AM Outlook - Slight Reversal

GOOD MORNING, The markets remain thin as countries are out for holiday.   Argentina is closed today and China is out for a week-long holiday.&nbs...

Lopsided WTO Proposal; Never Again

Lopsided WTO Proposal A new proposal for WTO disciplines on agriculture subsidies is correct in one respect but lopsided in other ways. The International I...

Market Commentary

The market opened mixed but ended mostly in the green. Prices were boosted by decent export sales, especially in wheat, very few deliveries against expirin...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Round Up

Re-Opening, but Slower Operating Meat Plants As we reported on Tuesday, the President issued an executive order under the Defense Production Act to keep me...

PM Post - Temporary Lows

THE OPEN July beans: 4 3/4 higher July meal: .20 higher July soyoil:  23 higher July corn:  3/4 lower July wheat:  5 1/2 lower Prices opened...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 467,400 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 91 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Corn...

Corn Market Challenge

We have commented before about the broad negative impact that the worldwide coronavirus pandemic is having on demand for raw materials ranging from copper...

Technical Views - Different Directions

SPREADS The May/July Chicago wheat spread is beginning to invert once more, trading from 3-4c.  July/Dec corn trades out to 19c from 18 1/4c.  Ju...

AM Outlook - Up and Down

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to begin the session with wheat contracts lower against the other markets.  Bean and corn prices are steady on the uptu...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with short covering that lifted corn and soybeans higher early in the day. Firmer crude oil prices were supportive initially. Row crops end...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.145/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Oil and Food

The price of petroleum has plummeted, putting countries that are highly dependent on its export earnings into deep fiscal trouble. This should hinder their...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog and Pork Prices Face Pressure, Inventories Up On 28 April, China’s State Council hosted a press conference about the...

PM Post - Weak Day for Grains

THE OPEN July beans:  5 higher July meal:  .50 lower  July soyoil:  35 higher July corn:  2 3/4 higher July wheat:  6 1/4 low...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 April 2020 Prices on the domestic grain market continued to grow. Meanwhile, on the export market milling wheat average price...

Ag Review - April 2020

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the economic downturn and its impact on a...

Technical Views - Mixed Opportunities

SPREADS July crush trades to 84.79c/bu while oilshare is higher trading up to 31.11%.  May/July corn narrows into 8 3/4c from 9 1/2c, while July /Dec...

AM Outlook - Meat Bounce

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed as we head into first notice day on Thursday, lower for wheat and higher elsewhere.  Wheat is lower on rains in Europe...

Market Commentary

The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund...

When Pigs Fly… Which is Happening

China is starting to repopulate its swine herd, flying in, via charter planes, live breeding animals from the EU. According to reports, more than 4,000 hea...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.12/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...

Corona News; Localization and Ag Needs

Corona News Topics of note for today: Trade Agreements: The African Continental Free Trade Area originally scheduled to be implemented on 1 July has been d...

PM Post - Continued Weakness

THE OPEN July beans: 1 1/2 higher July meal:  .20 lower July soyoil:  .12 higher July corn:  3/4 lower July wheat:  2 higher A higher-t...

New Model Risks

Many respondents to a recent WPI poll said that one impact of the COVID-19 crisis would be increased localization in the food supply. Indeed, there was alr...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Arabia’s SAGO purchased 60,000 MT of Ukraine wheat from SALIC (Saudi Agricultural...

Technical Views - Resistance Holds

SPREADS July crush trades firmer to 85.77c/bu, while oilshare trades to 30.55%.   Corn spreads widen with July/Dec out to 16 3/4c from 15 3/4c.&n...

AM Outlook - Short Covering Start

GOOD MORNING, Prices are slightly firmer to begin the morning despite the fact that crude is once again falling to new lows.  Much of the negative new...

Market Commentary

CBOT trade was mostly a continuation of last week with corn falling lower amid declining ethanol demand and expectations for aggressive planting over the w...

Comfortable and Safe; Adjusting Risk-Benefit; Miscellany

Comfortable and Safe Food processors are reporting brisk sales of their processed products. Nestlé’s Hot Pockets are selling lot hot cakes; Ni...

Lower Fuel Use Reignites RFS Fight

As of last week, according to the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), 73 of the nation’s 200 ethanol plants are idled and 70 percent are operating at r...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.1325/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn So far, 35 percent of Argentina’s planted area is harvested with a weekly progress of just 2 percent. Farmers are still focused on the soybean h...

PM Post - New Lows Being Set

THE OPEN July beans:  3 lower July meal:  .30 lower July soyoil:  34 lower July corn:  5 1/2 lower July wheat:  4 1/4 lower Prices...

Clobbered by Currency

The change in the exchange rate relative to the dollar is currently greatest for the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso. The only other currency that co...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Warm, moderately dry conditions were featured across Europe this week with southern parts of the continent receiving better precipitati...

Technical Views - Test and Cover

SPREADS July crush trades to 83.21c/bu, while oilshare trades to 30.19%.  Jul/Dec corn weakens back out to 15 1/4c from 13 1/2c, and levels that were...

AM Outlook - Looking for Value Points

GOOD MORNING, Trading ranges continue as the mission of the market is to now establish value levels that make sense given the bearish environment brought o...

Cattle on Feed; Restaurants Not Feeding; Slaughter Bottlenecks

USDA released its cattle on feed report today; as expected placements were down dramatically to 1.56 million head, the lowest total for March on record. To...

Gaming 2020

The U.S. primary system may need revision based on the recent voting in Wisconsin, but the national election will and must occur on 3 November. The questio...

Future of EU Wheat

Parts of Europe are again too dry this spring raising worries that the wheat crop will be suboptimal. Indeed, some forecasters say this is the new normal i...

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mixed/slightly lower overnight with soybeans finding some support from this week’s Chinese purchases while corn sagged under the weight...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.23/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Cattle on Feed

• USDA Estimates – U.S. Cattle on Feed 5 percent below April 1, 2019 • Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United Sta...

PM Post - It was a Dead Cat Bounce

THE OPEN July beans:  2 3/4 lower July meal:  .50 lower July soyoil:  7 lower July corn:  3/4 lower July wheat:  1/4 lower Prices...

Technical Views - Chopping Along

SPREADS July crush trades down to 86c/bu while oilshare dips back below 31.0% to 31.71%.   July/Dec corn trades weaker from 12 1/2c to 13 1/2c.&n...

AM Outlook - Retrenchment

GOOD MORNING, Prices are slightly lower to begin the session after reaching temporary highs on a market bounce off contract lows.   Seasonally co...

Enforcing WTO Limits; Notifying the WTO

Enforcing WTO Limits  In this extraordinary time of global market turbulence, governments are taking measures to protect industry sectors including ag...

Market Commentary

The market bounced off new contract lows from earlier this week and while it usually would buy on a rumor it took reports of Chinese buying interest with a...

Summary of Futures

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.4475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Largely a Technical Day

THE OPEN July beans:  12 higher July meal:  1.40 higher July soyoil:  50 higher July corn:  5 higher July wheat:  5 higher The mar...

The Wild and Crazy Crude Oil Market

Can commodities actually be worth less than $0.00? After Monday’s wild trade in the CME May Crude Oil futures contract, we guess they can. As anyone...

Technical Views - Sideways Bounce

SPREADS July crush trades to 87.93c/bu, while oilshare trades to 30.96%.   Spreads firm with July/Dec narrowing into 11 1/4c from 12 3/4c, and vs...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 244,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 37 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. C...

AM Outlook - Higher Despite Export Sales

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher this morning led by beans and soyoil.  Soyoil follows higher palm and firmer energies. China has been buying beans thi...

Market Commentary

With yesterday’s trade showing reversal signals in soybeans and soymeal, the CBOT was called to open higher this morning, which is largely what happe...

March Cold Storage Report

The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and intrepretation for the latest Cold Storage report, published 22 April 2020 by the USDA. Briefly...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.175/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.4375/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Green Dream

Proponents of stark structural changes are trying to use the current COVID-19 crisis as leverage to achieve their policy goals, but it is unlikely to succe...

Biblical Proportions

International organizations are warning that COVID-19 and the associated economic recession will increase hunger in poorer countries. To quote World Food P...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health  Recurring Cases, Unanswered Questions Continue to Linger With China gradually returning to a state of normalcy, questions about recurri...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 April 2020 Two factors influenced development of prices on the domestic market: sales from Public Intervention Fund were pushi...

PM Post - As Called

THE OPEN July beans:  4 1/2 higher July meal:  .50 higher July soyoil:  25 higher July corn:  5 1/2 higher July wheat:  1 3/4 lowe...

Technical Views - Higher Trade

SPREADS July crush is lower at 89.12c/bu, while oilshare trades at 30.45%.  Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov narrowing into 5 1/2c from 8 1/2c, w...

AM Outlook - Key Reversals

GOOD MORNING, After placing new contract lows or low -end prices for ranges, prices are firmer this morning, (except for wheat), on a combination of bargai...

Similar Transatlantic COVID-19 Impacts

According to the latest Short-term Outlook from the European Commission, the agrifood sector on the Continent has been impacted by the economic shock, lock...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.0925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&...

Market Commentary

Trade at the CBOT was marked by early steep declines that eventually gave way to a short covering/profit taking bounce. Corn, soybeans, and soymeal all pos...

Farmer Friendly Trump; Farmer Friendly GI’s

Farmer Friendly Trump There is no industry hurt more by President Donald Trump than agriculture, and there is no modern president that has embraced agricul...

Packing Plant Hot Spots; Post COVID-19 Marco Outlook

Packing Plant Hot Spots As Matt Herrington reported last night, meat packing plants are the new COVID-19 hotspots. The CDC is expected to issue its report...

PM Post - Blow-off Low

THE OPEN July beans:  11 1/4 lower July meal:  2.70 lower July soyoil:  77 lower July corn:  8 lower July wheat:  1/4 higher The c...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins 24 April. Business is always more difficul...

Technical Views - Testing New Bottoms

SPREADS July crush trades down to 91.78c/bu while oilshare falls to 30.69%.  Spreads are weaker with July/Dec trading out to 17c from 14 1/2c, and val...

AM Outlook - It's Wheat Again

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board to begin the morning as funds continue to put on new short positions in lieu of weaker macros, lack of dema...

Market Commentary

The biggest news of the day is the fact that May crude oil futures traded to negative prices, posting a daily low of negative $40.34 (-$40.32) before settl...

Imperfect Petroleum Relationship; CFTC’s Missed Opportunity

Imperfect Petroleum Relationship The assertion has been that petroleum is a finite resource whereas agricultural commodity production can always increase t...

Brazil – USA Trade Impacts

Washington and Brasilia have agreed to expedite negotiations under the Brazil-U.S. Commission on Economic and Trade Relations with the goal of completing a...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.1425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Despite the fact that farmers are still primarily focused on the soybean harvest, the corn harvest advanced 6 percent last week. The progress was larg...

PM Post - Notable for Wheat Only

THE OPEN July beans:  5 3/4 lower July meal:  1.00 lower July soyoil:  31 lower July corn:  3 1/2 lower July wheat:  18 higher The...

European Market Analysis

Regional News The dryness across Europe is easing with showers falling across Spain, western France, and Eastern Europe last week. For most of Europe, the...

Details on the New Coronavirus Food Assistance Program

On Friday as part of the daily White House COVID19 briefing, Secretary Perdue announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP).  It will come...

Technical Views - Only Wheat Has Strength

SPREADS July crush trades top 96.08c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.09%.  Corn spreads are weaker with July/Dec trading out to 15c from 13 1/2c. ...

AM Outlook - Mixed; Going Short

GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed this morning as wheat is sharply higher against lower prices elsewhere on the board.   Wheat prices are highe...

Market Commentary

CBOT grains and livestock markets were mostly higher today with short covering the dominant theme in corn. Wheat futures sold off early in the day but foun...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.2225/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Meat of the Matter

Coming out of the food shortages of WWII, Roger Waters asks in the Pink Floyd album Another Brick in the Wall, “How can you have any pudding if you d...

Agricultural Demand Crisis

Macroeconomic trends have always had some impact on agricultural production, demand, trade and values, but usually much less so than on other commodities s...

Dollars versus Disease; Long-term Impacts of COVID-19

Dollars versus Disease Part of the debate over action against the coronavirus has always been health versus economics. The decision to err on the side of h...

PM Post - Profit-taking

THE OPEN  July beans:  1 3/4 higher July meal:  1.10 higher July soyoil;  2 higher July corn:  2 higher July wheat:  1 lower...

Technical Views - Sideways to Mostly Lower

SPREADS Crush firms to 99.91c/bu, while oilshare trades to 31.0%.  Spreads are generally firmer with July/Dec corn narrowing into 13 3/4c from 15c.&nb...

AM Outlook - Low Volume Bear Market

GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed as we head into the weekend, mostly higher on short-covering, wheat lower on long liquidation.  Higher markets nee...

Rare Policy Initiatives

Extraordinary policy initiatives are being deployed in these rarest of times. New York City has reportedly sought charitable contributions toward keeping i...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.1975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 20 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary

Markets are rational and amid all the uncertainty the current bearishness is reasonable. There are also fundamental reasons for the current selloff. It mak...

PM Post - New Lows Set

THE OPEN July beans:  2 lower        July meal:  steady July soyoil:  16 lower July corn:  1/4 lower July wheat:&nb...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 178,300 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...

Technical Views - Meal to Bounce

SPREADS July crush firms again to 98c/bu, while oilshare tests 31.0%.   May/July meal widens out to $4.60 from $3.80, while July/Dec trades from...

AM Outlook - New Lows

GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed this morning and haven't moved much from yesterday's settlement.   Theme of the markets is continued selling...

Market Commentary

Today’s CBOT trade was dominated by poor retail sales and the weekly EIA ethanol and gasoline production/stocks report that proved bearish for both m...

Covid Recovery; Independent Dependence

Covid Recovery About one-tenth of American workers have lost their jobs including at least 475,000 in New York City alone. Some believe the actual number i...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.1925/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  May 20 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close...

4-5 Million Fewer Corn Acres

Today’s U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) report verified the downward direction of ethanol production and thus corn demand in the wake of COVID-1...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health  Routine Temperature Checks, Social Monitoring Define New Normal Life in China’s mega coastal cities continues to inch back to a n...

PM Post - Needing a Weather Shock

THE OPEN July beans:  1 3/4 lower July meal:  2.90 higher July soyoil:  22 lower July corn:  1 3/4 lower July wheat:  11 3/4 lower...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 April 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic Russian market increased in the European part of Russia but decreased in Siberia. Meanw...

Technical Views - Mostly Lower

SPREADS Crush is firmer this morning with July trading up to 94c/bu, and oilshare correcting down to 31.23%.  July/Nov beans trades out to 10 1/4c fro...

AM Outlook - Mixed, with Notables

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with a larger break in wheat, and a bounce in meal as traders unwind previous buy soyoil/sell meal spread trade...

Market Commentary

Weakness in soymeal and the soy complex was the major feature at the CBOT today. The soy complex is increasingly worried about the demand implications of t...

Pandemic Predictions on Food

Many are calling for paradigm shifts in most societal functions and a lot of changes are already happening, but government will slow farming’s abilit...

FAPRI Farm Income Forecast

Yesterday we wrote about the forthcoming relief funds for COVID-19; today’s press stories are laying out the same scenario based on reports of what i...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.26/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  May 20 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&n...

PM Post - No Turnaround Tuesday

THE OPEN July beans:  1 lower July meal:  1.60 lower July soyoil:  5 lower July corn:  1/4 higher July wheat:  6 1/4 lower The fea...

Recession and Farm Income

The Purdue University/CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers in March showed their economic sentiment dropping 47 points (28 percent), th...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Corn and wheat imports in the region could find sourcing more difficult with Romania banning...

Technical Views - Corn Solo

SPREADS July crush trades to 83c/bu, while oilshare is a steady 31.59% item.  Corn spreads are slightly firmer, with July /Dec trading into 13 1/2c fr...

AM Outlook - Taking Out Bottoms

GOOD MORNING,  Prices are mixed this morning with some short-covering activity in corn, and continued long liquidation in beans and meal.  Weathe...

Market Commentary

The markets were called mostly lower after the long holiday weekend with funds continuing to be net sellers and coronavirus news remaining bearish for comm...

Future of Ag Trade

There have been plenty of concerns voiced over the future of the global trading system post-COVID-19. The Trump Administration receives plenty of ink for s...

Summary of Futures

May 20 Corn closed at $3.315/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 20 Wheat closed at $5.55/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Logistics Truck movements have normalized since the first few weeks of the quarantine when uncertainty and divergent local regulations slowed the arrival o...

COVID-19: Pork Plant and Policy Uncertainties Continue

The responses and repercussions of the COVID-19 spread continue at a breakneck speed, one of the latest being the indefinite shut down of the JBS pork plan...

Dreaming of Shortfalls

The stay at home orders and fear of a pandemic caused a run on groceries. Several countries-imposed food export restrictions and collectively this elicited...

PM Post - Setup for Turnaround

THE OPEN July beans:  1 1/2 lower July meal:  1.40 lower July soyoil:  30 lower July corn:  2 1/2 lower July wheat:  5 higher Pric...

European Market Analysis

Regional News Food security continues to be the primary market driver for Europe and most other regions around the world. Efforts to increase (at least per...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Technical Views - Mostly Lower

SPREADS July crush falls to 84.65c/bu while oilshare remains a firm 31.73%.  July/Nov bean spread is slightly weaker trading from 4 1/4c to 5 1/2c car...

AM Outlook - All to Think About

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to begin the morning.   Wheat is higher this morning with the USDA reporting a sale last Friday of 165,000 mt of H...

Good Friday

Tomorrow, 10 April is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspec...

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