GOOD MORNING, Macro markets are front and center stage again, with the big story that of sharply lower crude oil, which sinks to $27.34/barrel in the PM se...
Articles
Policy Shorts – Because its Friday
EU Sensibilities: The European Academies Science Advisory Council doesn’t have the credibility of Greenpeace with European media, but its message car...
Market Commentary
The CBOT shrugged off rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. sorghum and DDGS for summer shipment as risk-off and position liquidation trade developed quickly...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.76/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.1575/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nb...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
BDI is Fishy
As fear of the coronavirus causes money to rush out of equities and commodities, why are bulk shipping rates rising? The transportation segment is complex...
Coronavirus Complicated Economy
On Wednesday 4 March, USDA Secretary Perdue testified before the House Agriculture Committee on the state of the farm economy, following are a few highligh...
PM Post - Finding Value Levels
THE OPEN May beans: 3 1/2 lower May meal: 1.10 higher May soyoil: 44 lower May corn: 1 1/2 lower May wheat; 3 3/4 lower The m...
Technical Views - Lower Despite Fundamentals
SPREADS May crush trades top 96.55c/bu, lower than the spike high trade above 1.00c/bu this week. Oilshare falls to 32.18% as prices respond to lower...
AM Outlook - Testing the Bottom
GOOD MORNING, Another Friday after a turbulent week of trade. Today, Ags are once again following the macro markets, where world stocks are lower with rumo...
Livestock Round Up
Challenges for Chickens It’s not easy being in the chicken business these days. The chart below shows our estimated gross feeding margin...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a day in the red as coronavirus anxiety continues to haunt investors. Fear of betting against calamity is understandable since a story of out...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: China Allows U.S. Soybeans; Argentine Export Taxes; U.S. Soy Export Sales
China Grants Crushers Authority to Buy and Import U.S. Soybeans at Low Tariff Rate AgriCensus today reported the government of China has authorized several...
Party’s Trade Soul
The Democratic presidential primary fight is now down to Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden and the outcome will reflect the Party’s true soul on issues li...
PM Post - Playing the Ranges
THE OPEN May beans: 6 1/2 lower May meal: 2.80 lower May soyoil: 14 lower May corn: 4 1/4 lower May wheat: 2 lower The market...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 542,400 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 42 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sal...
Technical Views - Weakness All Around
SPREADS May crush falls to 97.88c/bu while oilshare strengthens to 32.57%. March/May corn trades to 2c inverse from 1 1/2c while July/Dec inverts to...
AM Outlook - Risk Off, Again
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning with outside markets not offering any help as the impact of the virus on the economy continues. On...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with wheat leading to the downside and bull spreading between corn/soybeans and wheat unfolding. Soyoil futures were stronger in light of a...
Extremists Target Biden; Good Pesticides; Happy Farmers
Extremists Target Biden U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden scored big on Super Tuesday not because he wants to radically change the economy b...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.85/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...
Folly of Oats
In the 1500’s, it was considered folly to plant oats in lieu of “good” grain. Unlike wheat and other crops, oats are deficient in phytase...
PM Post - Rumors
THE OPEN May beans: 3 higher May meal: .60 lower May soyoil; 61 higher May corn: 3/4 lower May wheat: 4 1/2 lower The m...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Covid-19 Surges Overseas, China Slow to Return to Normalcy In the past week, new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in China have...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 February 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic Russian market grew slightly in ruble expression but decreased in dollar expression...
Technical Views - Sideways or Higher
SPREADS May crush trades top 1.01c/bu, while oilshare is firmer at 32.41% as soyoil gains this morning. March / May corn trades to a 1c inverse...
AM Outlook - Adjustments Ahead of WASDE
GOOD MORNING, Volatility continues to play out in the macro markets as uncertainty leads the Fed to implement an emergency meeting to lower rates, on...
Market Commentary
The trading day started with a notable lack of deliveries against March corn and Chicago wheat futures, while the soy complex received a moderate number of...
British Chutzpah; Dems and Tariffs; Viral Excuses
British Chutzpah The UK government released its negotiating objectives in a trade deal with the U.S. and reportedly Trade Secretary Liz Truss said Washingt...
Biofuels Waiting on EPA’s Decision on SREs
Last Thursday at a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the EPA Administrator said that a decision on how EPA would review and grant small r...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Locust in East Africa
While most of the world is narrowly focused on COVID-19, East Africa faces the same prospects for that human disease while also battling the fall army worm...
PM Post - Shock and Awe
THE OPEN May beans: 2 1/2 higher May meal: 1.30 lower May soyoil; 40 higher May corn: 4 1/2 higher May wheat: 5 higher Commodity pr...
Technical Views - Volume Indicator
SPREADS May crush trades to 96.30c/bu while oilshare firms back over 32.0% to 32.18%. March/May beans trades back out to 12 1/4c from 10 1/2c o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has said that wheat production for 2020 should reach about 9.5 MMT with between 3.0...
AM Outlook - Cautious Rebound
GOOD MORNING, As prices near the March 10 WASDE and Prospective Planting Intentions report, funds may do a bit of re-balancing. Helping in this balan...
Grain Glitch Talks to Start Over
More than two years after the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 the so-called Grain Glitch problem is still a hotly debated provision exp...
Market Commentary
The weekend was apparently good therapy for markets around the world as equities opened higher this morning and traded to strong gains. The Dow closed 5.1...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.755/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Remaking a Food System; Turnaround Tuesday
Remaking a Food System The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was crafted in the late 1950s to respond to chronic food shortages in Europe following WWII. Sp...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Chinese buyers were not very active last week and the Brazilian real depreciated strongly against the U.S. dollar, falling from 4...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Last week’s commodity trade was executed under the duress of global market selloffs driven by the spreading coronavirus. This week&rsqu...
PM Post - Bounce and a Stretch
THE OPEN May beans: 7 1/2 higher May meal: 3.00 higher May soyoil; 20 higher May corn: 4 higher May wheat: 4 lower The mornin...
Outside Influences
Agricultural commodities comprise a very small share of the futures market, and derivatives are dwarfed by the $92 trillion capitalized in the equity marke...
Technical Views - Stabilization from the Outside
SPREADS May crush trades to 94.77c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.08%. July/Dec corn trades from 3c to 4 1/4c, while March/May trades from 1/2c...
AM Outlook - Trying to Stabilize
GOOD MORNING, The Coronavirus continues to impact markets across the board creating more liquidation. The death toll passed 3,000 today, after more p...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.6825/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Virus Geopolitics; Process Tariffs
Virus Geopolitics The trade war had already caused changes in supply chains and now COVID-19 is adding to the reconsiderations. However, globalization invo...
Market Commentary
Typically, the month of March comes in like a lion, but that metaphor started early as February went out like a lion hellbent on destroying global stock ma...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beati...
Biofuels: SREs and Renewable Diesel Trends
The RINs market reacted to a news story that EPA was planning on being stingy with future small refinery exemptions (SREs). That speculation was addressed...
PM Post - Seeking Cover Amidst the Panic
THE OPEN May beans: 7 1/2 lower May meal: .10 lower May soyoil: 49 lower May corn: 1/4 higher May wheat: 6 lower Prices...
Technical Views - New Positions
SPREADS May crush trades up to 95c/bu while oilshare moves lower trading to 32.12%. There were no corn, bean, or wheat deliveries. March/May co...
AM Outlook - How Low Can You Go?
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board today as commodities and equities continues a risk-off trade. The steep trajectory of equities to the...
Livestock Round Up
Brazilian Beef: Show Me the Science Last week, USDA announced that it will permit the import of Brazilian beef into the U.S. The product...
Foibles of the Sustainability Agenda
The Trump Administration announced last week its Agriculture Innovation Agenda, which included the target of a 50 percent reduction in the sector’s e...
Market Commentary
The market opened lower across the board as called with coronavirus on the brain. It has now spread to 30 countries but the WHO has yet to call it a pandem...
Summary of Futures
May 20 Corn closed at $3.68/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Argentine Export Taxes; Russia Oilseeds; Argentine Soy
Disappointing U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 20 February was not a positive one for expor...
PM Post - Closer to Competitive Prices
THE OPEN May beans: 8 1/2 lower May meal: 2.70 lower May soyoil: 13 lower May corn: 4 lower May wheat: 6 lower Prices opened lower...
The Art of Forecasting
If there is a constant in the world of agriculture, it is the countless attempts by participants to forecast the future. In a sense, individual farme...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 381,800 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. C...
Technical Views - The Challenges
SPREADS Volumes in spread trade remain heavy as first notice day arrives Friday. The March/May corn spread trades from 3 3/4c to 4 1/4c, while July/D...
AM Outlook - Big Test Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices weakened further during the night session as major trends continue downward into the end of the month. Given the unknowns of the...
EU Budget Quandary; Votes and Viruses
EU Budget Quandary The EU is in a quandary about how to square its budget following the exit of the UK, which was a net positive contributor to the balance...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets opened on a mixed note this morning with some buying interest emerging after the two-day selloff. Soymeal started the day with a strong rally...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.705/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Covid-19 Under Control in Hubei, Hidden Costs Rise China’s drastic response after the initial delay in shutting down the city of Wuhan...
PM Post - Meal Range Revealed
THE OPEN May beans: 1/2 higher May meal: .10 higher May soyoil; steady May corn: steady May wheat: 1 lower Prices opened on a mixed...
Dollar Value Depresses Exports
The commodity weighted value of the dollar had been expected to decline in 2020 but instead the U.S. dollar index has risen nearly 4 percent, reaching its...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market Overview: 17-21 February 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic Russian market started to decrease in the European part of Russia under pre...
Technical Views - Challenged Markets
SPREADS May crush moves down to the lowest point so far at 81c/bu, while oilshare weakens to 33.55%. July/Dec corn remains a 2c-2 3/4c carry, w...
AM Outlook - Highs = Selling Points
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with grains slightly lower and oilshare continuing to leak. The markets are the weakest where remai...
Market Commentary
The coronavirus-driven market rout continued today with global stock markets failing in their attempted recovery and falling sharply again as investor &ldq...
COVID-19 Calculations; Trade Policy Shorts
COVID-19 Calculations Equities have now plunged two days in a row over the coronavirus, but commodities fought back today rather than overreact. The COVID-...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 20 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
January Cold Storage Report
The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and intrepretation for the latest Cold Storage report published 24 February 2020 by the USDA. Brief...
Stocks of Pork and Chicken Hanging Over the Market
The combined inventory of red meat and poultry in cold storage at the end of January was 2.374 billion pounds, that’s 102.4 percent of a year earlier...
PM Post - Short-covering Bounce
THE OPEN May beans: 3 1/2 higher May meal: 1.40 higher May soyoil: 24 lower May corn: 1 1/2 higher May wheat: 4 lower Prices...
Ag Review - February 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering trade war policies, the challen...
Competition in Africa Heats-up
There is now broad recognition of the economic awakening of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the geopolitical race is on to be its preeminent partner. Each of...
Technical Views: Major Direction is Lower
SPREADS May crush takes a big hit, falling to 84c/bu, while oilshare trades lower to 33.48%. July/Nov beans trades from 10c to 11 1/4c. July/Dec corn trade...
AM Outlook: Possible Turnaround Tuesday?
GOOD MORNING, Ag prices were sharply lower yesterday setting up the perfect scenario for a turn-around Tuesday day of trade. Prices are mixed this morning,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt reports holding strategic wheat reserves covering 4.7 months consumption. Officials...
Election Year Farm Payments and Formulas
Shortly after USDA announced the final tranche of Market Facilitation Payments (MFP) and noted that would almost certainly be the last of the federal check...
Market Commentary
Every major CBOT/CME agricultural futures contract posted significant losses in a day dominated by “risk off” trade. Over the weekend, news bro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close...
Tax Tech Divide; Low Leverage on India
Tech Tax Divide G-20 finance ministers failed to make headway on the issue of high-tech company taxation and the prognosis is not good. The Czech Republic...
PM Post - Not as Spooked as Equities
THE OPEN May beans: 13 1/2 lower May meal: 3.20 lower May soyoil: 69 lower May corn: 4 1/2 lower May wheat: 10 1/2 lower The market...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Global commodity markets are reacting to weekend news of the coronavirus’ spread to countries in the Middle East and Europe, as well as...
Dissecting Spanish Olives
The U.S. is a major market for Spanish olive producers, and they are currently reeling from a 35 percent antidumping/countervailing duty plus a 25 percent...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Stories are circulating that the Argentine government will increase the soybean export tax from 30 percent to 33 percent in the next few days. Th...
Technical Views - Down and Out
SPREADS May crush trades at 91.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.35%, as meal prices hit new ctr lows. July /Dec corn narrows into 2 1/2c from 3 1/2...
AM Outlook - Lower We Go
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board this morning as a risk-off sentiment pervades trade due to the spread of the Coronavirus. A WHO...
Cattle on Feed
Feb 1, 2020 U.S. Cattle on Feed is up 2 percent from 2019. Placements in feedlots during January were 1 percent below 2019. Marketings during J...
Not Quite Bullish Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report on Friday. The report was neutral, with inventory, marketings and placements all coming in right at t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.77/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.51/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a high note with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex moving strongly into positive territory. By afternoon, however, lackluster repo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Do versus Say I; Do versus Say II; EU Week in Geneva
Do versus Say I Likely echoing the government’s Office of Management and Budget and an earlier interagency agreement, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue and...
2020 Outlook for Cow/Calf Producers
The year 2019 was difficult for cow-calf producers as a series of unexpected weather events, heavy winter snowstorms that reduced calf survival rates and m...
PM Post - Mixed Instead
THE OPEN May beans: 2 1/2 higher May meal: steady May soyoil: 11 higher May corn: 3/4 higher May wheat: 6 higher The markets opened...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS May crush trades at 89c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.0% as correcting lower this week. July/Dec corn trades into 2 1/2c from 3 1/4c.&nbs...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 346,300 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average...
AM Outlook - The Long and the Short of it.
GOOD MORNING, Prices remain steady today as the Agricultural Outlook Forum presents its full Supply and Demand tables and acreage numbers. &nb...
Market Commentary
There were several reasons to be bearish today and not much countering the mood. USDA’s Outlook released this morning framed the year ahead as fundam...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total numb...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.6/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. ...
Dollar Drives U.S. Exports
Chicago futures reacted today to a record spread between the value of the dollar and the Brazilian real, each at three-year highs and lows, respectively. T...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be red...
PM Post - Strong Dollar and No Support
THE OPEN May beans: 3 lower March meal: 1.00 lower March soyoil: steady May corn: 2 lower May wheat: 3 lower Prices were lowe...
Technical Views - Mixed But Some Action
SPREADS May crush is lower at 89.53c/bu while oilshare values congest just under 34.0% at 33.98%. Jly/Dec corn trades from 2 1/4c to 3c while March/M...
AM Open - New Business Rumors
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today as trading ranges continue. Currency markets remain a feature as a two year high US dollar squares off against a...
Canadian Crop Production Trend
A few years ago, Canada was expected to become a larger producer of soybeans. A warming climate together with improved seed traits, including Roundup-Ready...
Market Commentary
Technical trading ruled the day at the CBOT/CME with overnight weakness in palm oil sending soyoil lower at the open. That set the stage for support in soy...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.805/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.6525/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...
Unilateral Everything; Not So Very Big; Ugly Bailout
Unilateral Everything U.S. President Trump gets blamed for “America First” unilateralism but in fact it is practiced equally by all count...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Coronavirus Criteria Adjusted, Recoveries Outpace Deaths The day after last week’s report, China adjusted its criteria for coronavirus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market: 10-14 February 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market grew due to active demand from both exporters and processors. Meanwhi...
PM Post: Trading Tomorrow's Expectations
THE OPEN May beans: 4 1/4 lower March meal: .20 lower March soyoil: 49 lower May corn: 1 1/2 lower May wheat: 5 lower The markets opened lower as c...
Technical Views - The Details
SPREADS May crush trades to 91.22c/bu, while oilshare is weaker, trading back below 34.0% to 33.87%. Corn spreads weaken with July/Dec trading out to...
AM Outlook - Mostly Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Futures are lower this morning led by soyoil, followed by wheat. Soyoil is lower following a sharp break in palm, as traders are...
Market Commentary
Overnight news that Australia’s 2019/20 wheat crop will be smaller than expected set the stage for a sharp rally in the CBOT wheat markets. Morning c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.83/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.24 from yesterday's close. ...
China's Tariff Reductions
China announced this morning a list of 696 U.S. products for which importers may apply for a tariff exemption. Importers must apply for the exemption by 2...
Partial Analysis; WTO Repeated Error; China’s Virus Problem
Partial Analysis The EU undergoes a WTO trade policy review this week in Geneva and Maria Cipollina and Luca Salvatici write in the European Review of Agri...
PM Post: Notables
THE OPEN March beans: 2 lower March meal: .40 lower March soyoil: 2 higher March corn: 3 higher March wheat: 13 higher Prices ope...
Change in Major Philippine Crops
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is a controversial leader and some critics complain that he has hurt the country’s agriculture by allowing incre...
Technical Views: Wheat Higher, Corn Sideways, Soy Weaker
SPREADS Spread trade consumed most of the volume in the last session. March corn was down 36,104 contracts with May up 23,638 contracts. March open i...
AM Outlook: Wheat Leading Grains Higher
GOOD MORNING, The board is mixed this morning with wheat leading grains higher and weaker soy values. Heading into this week, all eyes will be the January...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has announced that the population of the country has just reached 100 million people...
President's Day Holiday
Monday, 17 February 2020 is the President's Day holiday in the U.S. Financial markets will be closed and conseqiuently, WPI will not issue an Ag Perspectiv...
Market Commentary
Note: CBOT and CME ag futures markets will be closed on Monday, 17 February for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. WPI offices will be closed as well...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
India Offer to U.S.; Coronavirus and Super Tuesday; Concrete AB
India Offer to U.S. New Delhi and Washington would both like to have a trade deal by the time President Trump visits India on 24-25 February and India is m...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7775/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close...
Fed Report: More Growth, Less Leverage
This week, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the first of his twice-per-year reports to Congress in testimony before the House and Sen...
PM Post - Short-covering
THE OPEN March beans: 1/2 lower March meal: 1.40 lower March soyoil: 19 higher March corn: 1/4 higher March wheat: 4 higher P...
Technical Views - Sideways or Corrective
SPREADS May crush trades to 90.61c/bu while oilshare trades at 34.52%, slightly firmer today. July/Nov beans trades from 4 1/2c to 6 1/4c, while Marc...
AM Outlook - Bear Spread Opportunity
GOOD MORNING, Bean prices led the way higher yesterday as products put in congestive trade, with today's price action mixed. Meal is lower vs. soyoil...
Market Commentary
It’s back! Coronavirus was peaking and then suddenly it was not due to a new testing procedure and that largely defined the day. It remains a questio...
Livestock Roundup
Fake Meat Fight The arguments over labeling regulations for plant-based alternatives to meat continue. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCB...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.795/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...
Regulated Competition; Market Disoriented; Hugging Ecuador
Regulated Competition The global pig meat surplus has been building at nearly 3 percent per year and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski has a...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Canada Prairie Soybean Plantings; Soy in WASDE
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 6 February indicated exporters had moderate soybean and soymeal expo...
PM Post - Short-covering and Bearishness
THE OPEN March beans: 2 higher March meal: 1.50 higher March soyoil: 40 lower March corn: 2 lower March wheat: 3/4 lower The...
Technical Views - More Short-covering Possible
SPREADS May crush trades lower down to 92c/bu while oilshare trades down to 34.10%, close to the 34.0% level that has already been tested once. Corn...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 643,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 90 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. C...
USDA and Phase One Agreement
It used to be that analyzing world supplies and demand for grains and oilseeds was basically concentrated on just a few countries. Production was dominated...
AM Outlook - Weaker Markets
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning led by soyoil futures, which have sharp losses due to weaker palm oil. Weaker outside markets come...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a strong note and moved higher for most of the day with the markets posting a mini rally following yesterday’s day of depressed tr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. ...
Economic Risks Rise; AB Problems Detailed
Economic Risks Rise Chinese President Xi Jinping gives assurances that the coronavirus will be managed and that it will not hobble the economy, but finance...
The Sun Shines
Soybeans get a lot of attention because they are the most heavily traded oilseed but in terms of expanding exports, sunflower seeds are small in number but...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Coronavirus Slows, Number of Recovered Patients Jumps Since last week, the number of total confirmed coronavirus cases has nearly doubled, re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 February 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market mainly grew due to demand from both exporters and processors, however...
PM Post: Surprise! It's a Rally!
THE OPEN March beans: steady March meal: .40 lower March soyoil: 33 higher March corn: 1/2 lower March wheat: 1/2 higher The markets opened as called but...
Technical Views - Moving the Edges
SPREADS May crush trades to 98.61c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.63%. July/Nov beans trades from 8c to 9 1/4c, closing at 9c. T...
AM Outlook - Mixed with a Tinge of Doubt
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly mixed this morning with soyoil and oilshare higher. Wheat charts broke down a touch as major support lines were...
Market Commentary
Markets were cautious ahead of this afternoon’s WASDE report and wheat and soyoil opened on a weaker tone. As the morning wore on, buy soyoil/sell me...
Trade Policy Developments; African Risk; Travel Wars
Trade Policy Developments President Trump has obliquely renewed his threat to initiate a trade war against Europe if the two sides do not arrive at a satis...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is lowered 0.5 cents to 33.5 cents per pound. Global oilseed production is raised 2.2 million tons to 576.8 million, w...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA forecasts that soybean meal prices will remain unchanged at $305.00 per short ton. ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
WASDE and Coronavirus Collision Course
The February WASDE adjusted the red meat and broiler forecast for both 2019 and 2020. The table below shows a recap. Total red meat and poultry prod...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reports that 2019/20 U.S. soybean had increased exports and lower ending stocks; U.S. soybean exports for 2019/20 are up 50 million from last mo...
African Century
A phrase filled with dark humor about Brazil in the 1990’s was, Brazil é o pais do futuro e sempre será - Brazil is the country of the...
WASDE Corn
USDA reports that 2019/20 U.S. corn had offsetting changes to exports and corn used for ethanol. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks a...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports that the only change for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international mar...
PM Post: Wheat Selling is the Day's Feature
THE OPEN March beans: 3/4 higher March meal: .90 higher March soyoil: 7 lower March corn: 1 1/4 lower March wheat: 3 lower The markets opened as expected...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates The coronavirus has hit the grain business with the Global Grain Asia conference in Singapore being postponed for at least three months. T...
Technical Views: Soybeans Forming Uptrend Channel
SPREADS Volumes remain heavy in spread trade as March contracts move forward. March/May corn traded over 100,000 times on the second day of the Goldman Rol...
AM Outlook: Wheat Trend in Danger
Good morning, Prices remain mixed in trading ranges before today's WASDE report at 11:00 Chicago time. Expectations are for higher world numbers, slightly...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with Friday’s CFTC report driving much of the trade. The report showed funds long wheat, which led to liquidation trade today. Soybean...
President’s Budget Proposed Re-Run Ag
The President’s FY 2020 proposed budget was released today with$43 billion in proposed cuts to agriculture programs over 10 years. Some of the same p...
Agricultural Trade Imbalances
The U.S. has traditionally had a positive trade balance in agricultural goods, though it has fluctuated depending on the value of the dollar and global eco...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...
Target Europe; India’s Special Pass
Target Europe The frustration with Europe in the Trump Administration is palpable. China has been viewed as unfair competition but out of design. It was a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a few months of drought putting a check on Argentine corn production, the weather pattern has consistently shifted towards more favorable patter...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News China’s coronavirus continues to cloud the outlook for Black Sea exports to the country, though Ukrainian officials have recently indic...
PM Post - Some Sideways; Some Risks
THE OPEN March beans: 1 3/4 lower March meal: steady March soyoil: 25 lower March corn: 4 lower March wheat: 1/2 lower The ma...
Technical Views - The Next 4 Days
SPREADS Most of the price action Friday and over the next 4 days is likely to be that of index fund spread activity. March corn futures were down 47,...
AM Outlook - CoT Surprises
GOOD MORNING, The markets are going to open on a mixed note today, with some short-covering on a larger than expected short position for corn and bea...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets finished the week mostly higher with short covering in corn and soymeal spilling over to other markets. Vice President Pence noted today that...
USDA Forecasts and China Agreement
The February WASDE will be released this coming Tuesday and ahead of it USDA’s Office of the Chief of Economist (OCE) issued an explanation of how up...
Small Won’t Win, Big Takes Time; China Virus Perspective
Small Won’t Win, Big Takes Time Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan met yesterday with USTR Robert Lighthizer and an EU spokesman described the talks as &l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.835/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
U.S. – Kenya Have Little Ag Trade
The U.S. and Kenya announced yesterday the initiation of bilateral free trade talks under the rules of the Trade Promotion Authority law. The U.S. wants it...
PM Post - Chips off the Table
THE OPEN March beans: 3/4 lower March meal: 1.30 higher March soyoil: 29 lower March corn: 1 1/2 higher March wheat: ...
Technical Views - Lock in Profits
SPREADS May crush trades higher to 1.01c/bu, from values that were 95c/bu this week. Oilshare is back under 35% again to trade to 34.71%. July/...
AM Outlook - Short-covering/Profit-taking
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today with profit-taking a major feature. Short-covering is a feature in corn, wheat and soyoil are mixed as fun...
S&D Effort Breaks Model
The Trump Administration’s approach to trade policy can be characterized as power politics. It has withdrawn the benefit of accessing the large Ameri...
Market Commentary
It could get exciting, but probably not. Barring any breakthrough buying the market is going to hold steady awaiting next week’s USDA WASDE report. M...
Livestock Roundup
Coronavirus Concerns China announced today that the additional marginal tariffs imposed on U.S. products on 1 September 2019 would be rolled back as the Ph...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...
Oilseeds: U.S. Soybean Industry Needs a New Strategy
The U.S. soybean industry has long been a success story. The industry was a modest one prior to World War II but saw amazing growth after the war as consum...
PM Post - Markets are Mixed
THE OPEN March beans: 3 higher March meal: .10 lower March soyoil: 21 higher March corn: 1 1/4 lower March wheat: 3 1/4 lower The m...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 338,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average...
Technical Views - Testing Today
SPREADS May crush trades higher, up to 1.01c/bu, while oilshare moves to 25.36%. March ctrs will begin to get rolled forward starting this week. ...
AM Outlook - Active Day
GOOD MORNING, Bean prices are rising this morning after China announced that starting Feb. 14, they would lower import tariffs on some US goods by half, wi...
A Few Eventful Items
The last several days have seen a mixed variety of news and events. The U.S. House of Representatives sent to the Senate its two articles of impeachment of...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Policy Coronavirus Outbreak Worsens and Quarantine Expands Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) is maintaining a re...
Market Commentary
The CBOT traded a quiet day with fundamental news and information becoming hard to find. Wheat futures found some support, but that buying was coupled with...
Vietnam Soymeal Use in 2020
Vietnam’s soymeal use has been rising at about 7 percent per year. However, the outbreak of African Swine Fever has caused a drop-off in pork product...
Phase One Breakdown; EU/UK Breakdown; Plant Protection Addiction; U.S. – Africa Approach
Phase One Breakdown Ukraine just sold 15 cargoes of soybeans to China and officials in Kiev say they do not expect the coronavirus to impact their grain ex...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.62/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Low Volume Congestive Trade
THE OPEN March beans: 7 higher March meal: .10 higher March soyoil: 89 higher March corn: 1/2 higher March wheat: 5 higher P...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 January 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market kept growing as exporters needed grain to fulfill their obligations o...
Technical Views - Generally Firm
SPREADS May crush firms to 98c/bu while oilshare firms back over 35% to 35.27%. July/Dec corn trades from even to 1/2c carry. March/Dec trades...
AM Outlook - Short-covering Rally
GOOD MORNING, Commodities and equities are rallying today, with across -the-board buying activity in both. Strong outside markets are fueling a furth...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets opened mostly higher with support from oversold technical conditions and strength from rising U.S. equity markets. Coronavirus is far from ove...
Rationalizing More MFP; Trump MO
Rationalizing More MFP China has flexibility to delay the volume of its Phase One agreement purchasing under a force majeure provision of the agreement. Th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8225/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
States Leveraging Milk and Meat Labelling Regulations
A bill that would prohibit the use of the term “milk” on the labels of soy, almond and other plant-based milks is working its way through the c...
PM Post - Back to Risk On
THE OPEN March beans: 5 higher March meal: steady March soyoil: 56 higher March corn: 3 higher March wheat: 6 3/4 higher The...
Buy A Six-Pack, Accomplish Nothing
There are at least a few scenarios in which one might purchase a six-pack of beer and subsequently accomplish nothing, but Anheuser-Busch is now offering o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Pakistan has declared a national emergency due to the spread of desert locusts in the east...
Technical Views - Stabilizing Prices
SPREADS May crush is back under 1.00c/bu, trading to 98.41c/bu. Oilshare firms back over 34% to trade to 34.60%. Spreads are firmer with...
AM Outlook - Turnaround Today
GOOD MORNING, Grains and soy are higher this morning after several weeks of world markets grappling with the unknown of the Coronavirus, making this a true...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened weaker overnight and kept that tone for most of the day. Soybeans and wheat managed higher closes based on some spread trade, while soymeal...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.555/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Trade Negotiation Weekly; Supply Influences
Trade Negotiation Weekly U.S. House Ways & Means Subcommittee Chairman Early Blumenauer (D-Oregon) says one of his priorities is WTO reform and this we...
Cheaper Animal Protein in China
China is now squashing an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, a disease with a much higher mortality rate to humans than the coronavirus now dom...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market was quiet last week due to the combination of the Chinese New Year and the spreading coronavirus. T...
PM Post - As China Goes, So Does...
THE OPEN March beans: 1 1/2 lower March meal: 1.30 lower March soyoil: 11 higher March corn: 2 1/2 lower March wheat: 4 lower...
Understanding the Iowa Caucuses
Today are the Iowa caucuses for the Democratic presidential primary. Since 1972, Iowans have been the first state to weigh in on the presidential nominees...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Southern Germany and parts of France and Italy will receive favorable precipitation this week, as will Bulgaria and Romania. The latter count...
Technical Views - Down for a While
SPREADS May crush is lower trading back under 1.00c/bu top lows of 96.37c/bu. Crush trades down to 33.86%. Corn spreads are weaker with July/De...
AM Outlook - Lots of New Lows
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed/lower to begin the day. The coronavirus epidemic has now caused 362 deaths as of Sunday, and infected more than 17,000...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly red today with the soy complex leading the way lower. Soyoil collapsed today while soymeal fell to another contract low and both pulled...
Cattle Inventory Down
USDA released its Cattle Inventory report today. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January is 94.4 million head, down a little less than...
The Next China
The country with the largest population is China and India is second but agricultural marketers are always looking for alternative markets. Indonesia has 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Fair and Equitable; Contrasts in Productive Attitudes; Authoritatively Wrong
Fair and Equitable In order to secure votes for the USMCA from Florida and Georgia politicians representing perishable fruit and vegetable growers, USTR pr...
PM Post - New Lows
THE OPEN March beans: 1 lower March meal: .20 lower March soyoil: 35 lower March corn: 1/2 lower March wheat: 1/2 lower...
Technical Views - Generally Low
SPREADS May crush is slightly lower, trading to 1.01c/bu, while oilshare trades down to 34.11%. July/Dec corn trades from 1/4c to 3/4c carry, w...
AM Outlook - Opens Mixed
GOOD MORNING, The markets will open on a mixed note today, with end-of-month profit-taking probably providing two-sided trade. Funds exit the month w...
Livestock Round Up
Smaller Cattle Herd Tomorrow the USDA will release its twice-per-year Cattle Inventory report – issued in January and July. Last year&rsq...
Twelve Days of Insight; Policy Prescriptions on Steroids
Twelve Days of Insight The Wall Street Journal’s James Mackintosh points out that business leaders, including those at the Davos World Economic Forum...
Market Commentary
There is a contagion in the markets that is likely worse than the actual coronavirus, and that is fear of the coronavirus. Or at least the unknowns about t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.795/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soymeal Export Sales; Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak; Argentina’s 2020 Soybean Crop
U.S. Soymeal Export Sales Continue to Be Large Today’s USDA export sales report indicated net U.S. soybean export sales last week for shipment in 201...
PM Post - Lower Anyways
THE OPEN March beans: 7 lower March meal: 1.00 lower March soyoil; 52 lower March corn: 3 3/4 lower March wheat: 8 1/4 lower...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 646,300 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...
Technical Views - Looking Down
SPREADS May crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades down to 34.36%. Spreads are a touch wider with July/Dec corn trading back out to 2c...
AM Outlook - Infectious Fear of Virus
GOOD MORNING, Prices took another step lower today as the spread of the coronavirus intensifies. The gap-lower price action from Monday was filled, b...
Trade Winds Ahead
The recent news regarding trade has been a mixed bag. On the positive side President Trump yesterday signed the USMCA triangular trade agreement between th...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy and Culture A Lunar New Year to Remember This past Saturday marked the first day of China’s Lunar New Year, which ushered in the year of the r...
Eating Crow; Green Deal Burdens; Hope Against Viruses
Eating Crow Few free traders in Washington believe that President Trump’s tariffs first approach to trade policy is a good idea. In fact, they have m...
Decline in Global Specialty Crops Trade
The trade war has largely involved major crops like soybeans, grain and livestock products. However, there has been concurrent adverse impacts on the trade...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s mild recovery, the CBOT saw continued selling pressure with significant bearish developments. Wheat futures broke below key technic...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.6225/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...
PM Post - Selling Pressure
THE OPEN March beans: steady March meal: 1.80 lower March soyoil: 33 higher March corn: 3 3/4 lower March wheat: 8 lower Prices tur...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 January 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market mainly grew due to high demand from both processors and exporters. Ex...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS May crush trades up to 1.05c/bu while oilshare trades higher, back towards 35% at 34.91%. July/Dec corn trades from 1/4c to 1 1/4c carr...
AM Outlook - Firmer
GOOD MORNING, The major trend is higher corn against a weaker bean market, but for today some profit-taking is noted in the spread. A surging palm oi...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s panic selling subsiding, the CBOT was left to trade its own fundamentals again, and that brought some support back to ag commodities...
SRE's in Court
The 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver has ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SRE...
Coronavirus Threats and Optimism; Unilateral on Fish
Coronavirus Threats and Optimism The mortality rate for the coronavirus is relatively high, reportedly resembling the SARS outbreak from 2002. At the same...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.6975/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Sourcing China’s Pork Requirements
China’s pork imports have increased from 100 KMT in May of 2018 to nearly 350 KMT in November of 2019. That means that China’s increased need f...
PM Post - Corn and Wheat Well Bid
THE OPEN March beans: 4 1/4 lower March meal: .80 higher March soyoil: 61 lower March corn: 1/4 higher March wheat: 3 1/2 lower Prices opened a...
Technical Views - Some Higher, Some Lower
SPREADS Corn spreads are a big firmer with July/Dec at 2 1/4c from 3 3/4c. July/Nov beans narrows into 8 1/2c from 9c. March wheat/corn t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Iran remains the largest regional buyer of Indian soymeal (soybean extract). A total of 13...
AM Outlook - Swayable Higher
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the day on a mixed note as soyoil futures trade down to a new low as funds continue to liquidate length and oilshare. Grai...
Market Commentary
CBOT (and most other) markets simply imploded today in a massive risk-off mentality. China’s coronavirus continues to unnerve global markets as the d...
WTO Objectives versus Leverage; Iowa Caucus Implications
WTO Objectives versus Leverage Cairns Group members called for a WTO agreement to halve the amount of domestic supports allowed in agriculture and a subset...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.805/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat market has, so far, been immune from the effects of Argentina’s new export taxes. Internationally, supply/demand factors for major wh...
Animal Protein to China
Analysts have opined that if China is looking to meet a purchasing threshold from the U.S. based on a dollar amount, it would be better to focus on high va...
PM Post - Making Way for Opportunists
THE OPEN March beans: 11 lower March meal: 2.20 lower March soyoil: 81 lower March corn: 6 3/4 lower March wheat: 10 1/2 lower The market...
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report on Friday. The report was neutral, with inventory, marketings and placements all coming in right at t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Europe experienced one of the warmest periods in its history during December and January, which is expected to have both positive and negativ...
Technical Views - Lower, Lower, Lower
SPREADS May crush is slightly lower trading down to 1.02c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.31%. July/Nov beans trades out to 10 1/2c from 9 1/4c, while...
AM Outlook - Risk Off
GOOD MORNING, Charts feature a gap-lower open in corn, beans, meal, and wheat this morning as global markets continue to be impacted by the spread of the c...
Domestic Before Trade Deals; Obesity Ignores Nutrition Labels
Domestic Before Trade Deals Everyone knows that President Donald Trump is a protectionist, but he has very good company when it comes to that charge. As hi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with a defensive tone as position liquidation/short selling continued in the soybean pit and as traders exited largely profitable wheat pos...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...
One Nation Under the New Wetlands Rule
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler and Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works (Army Corps of Engineers) R.D. James, yesterday announced EPA’s...
Viral Impacts
The coronavirus spreading out from Wuhan China has supposedly put markets on edge, especially equities. The death toll from the disease is rising but is le...
PM Post - Markets on Edge
THE OPEN March beans: 2 lower March meal: .90 higher March soyoil: 39 lower March corn: 5 14 lower March wheat: 4 3/4 lower The mar...
Cattle on Feed
USDA Reports that U.S. Cattle on Feed is up 2% on January 1, 2020. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.83 million head, 3% above 2019. Marketi...
December Cold Storage Report
The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and intrepretation for the latest Cold Storage report published 22 January 2020 by the USDA. Briefly, the dat...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 696,000 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 7 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...
Technical Views - Not Dull
SPREADS May crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare corrects down to 34.77%. July /Dec corn trades from even to 1c carry. March/Dec corn trades...
AM Outlook - Narrow Ups and Downs
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board this morning. The corn market had its best close since November, finally clearing multiple tops to po...
Market Commentary
It started out as a risk-off day across the board but then there were some acquisitive moves as time progressed. Things turned positive for grains but not...
Power Cords and Mustard; Virus War
Power Cords and Mustard Concerned about electronic waste and abuse of consumers, the EU has been pushing for the industry to establish a single power charg...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.9375/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.805/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle...
Cattle on Feed
USDA Reports that U.S. Cattle on Feed is up 2% on January 1, 2020. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.83 million head, 3% above 2019.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: NBB Biodiesel Goal; Mato Grosso Soybeans; Argentine Soy Crush
Biodiesel Board Establishes Overly Ambitious Goal This week the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) held its annual meeting. As part of that meeting the organiz...
PM Post - Open Selling
THE OPEN March beans: 4 1/2 lower March meal: .60 lower March soyoil: 41 lower March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 3/4 lower The...
Technical Views - Taking Out The Tops
SPREADS May crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades to .3532%. Spreads are a touch wider with July/Dec corn trading out to 1 3/4c from 1...
Buy Rumors, Sell Facts
One of the most consistent trading patterns over the long history of grain futures markets is described in the old cliché, “buy the rumor, sel...
AM Outlook - Trading Places
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed for most of the session, with grains firmer against soy, but leaned lower into the close as the soy complex posted addition...
Market Commentary
Wheat was once again the most interesting commodity in today’s CBOT trade, rising to new highs before settling lower in a “hook reversal”...
Transatlantic Course Setting; WTO Overhaul; AMR Balance
Transatlantic Course Setting U.S. President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discussed a new effort at a transatlantic trade a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...
China’s Rising Feed Demand
Chinese agricultural analysis firm JCI notes that the country’s major livestock production fell 10.2 percent last year (-21 percent for pork), and ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 January 2020 Milling and feed wheat prices as well as feed corn prices on the domestic Russian market grew, while feed barley...
PM Post - Bull Markets Often Have Breaks
THE OPEN March beans: 3 higher March meal: .40 lower March soyoil: 45 higher March corn: 2 1/2 higher March wheat: 8 3/4 high...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Cools Off Slightly December data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show food prices rose year-on-year by 17.4...
Technical Views - Disparate Directions
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 35.59%. Spreads are firmer with July/Dec corn narrowing into 1 1/2c from...
AM Outlook - Finding Tops and Bottoms
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher overnight led by wheat, which continues to trade to new market highs, with the March contract closing in on $6.00.&n...
Transatlanticism; Number One China Question
Transatlanticism The World Economic Forum in Davos this week brought to the fore some major trade issues between the U.S. and Europe. First, French Preside...
Market Commentary
With the excitement of the Phase One deal fading into the rearview mirror, the CBOT was broadly lower again as traders and analysts attempt to pencil out t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Milking the Trade
Among the major animal proteins, beef has the highest share (18.5 percent) of production that moves into international trade. This is likely due to the fac...
PM Post - Export Inspections are Focus
THE OPEN March beans: 7 lower March meal: .10 lower March soyoil: 42 lower March corn: 2 3/4 lower March wheat: 2 1/2 higher The ma...
Quest for E15
Now that the EPA has promised that at least 15 billion gallons of ethanol will be blended into a total gasoline pool of about 142.4 billion gallons, the tr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS The government of Pakistan has announced that 400,000 MT of wheat will be imported, duty f...
Technical Views - Exit and Reassess
SPREADS March crush trades at 1.00c/bu while oilshare backs down to 35.22%. Traders are buying meal / selling soyoil today with lower palm oil price...
AM Outlook - Firm Ranges
GOOD MORNING, The market remains focused this week on South American weather, harvest pressure, and signs of any Chinese purchases. Last week t...
Hey Phil Hogan, How’s the New Job Going?
New EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was in Washington this week for a sort of baptism by fire. On top of foreign policy tensions like Iran and security is...
Martin Luther King Day
Please note that Monday, 20 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of the remarkable achievements of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the mark...
Market Commentary
Note that the CBOT markets will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2020 for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. The CBOT traded another volatile day wit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Transatlantic Miscalculations
Analysts say that Mr. Trump settled on a partial economic deal with China in order to smooth his path to reelection. In that agreement’s aftermath, t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8925/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Growing Chinese Dairy Market
Reflecting the rapid growth of China’s dairy import needs, albeit from a small base, the new economic agreement between Beijing and Washington includ...
PM Post - Corn Bear Trap?
THE OPEN March beans: 2 1/4 lower March meal: .20 lower March soyoil: 25 lower March corn: 2 1/2 higher March wheat: 1 higher...
Technical Views - Nowhere to go but Sideways
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.00c/bu while oilshare is lower, trading down to 35.22%. July/Nov beans trade out to 5 1/2c from 5c, while March/May t...
AM Outlook - Beans Down, Corn Sideways
GOOD MORNING, It'a a long weekend with markets closed for the Martin Luther King Holiday on Monday, January 20. Grains are firmer this morning while...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a down day for the futures market and the most persistent rationale given is disappointment in the substance in the U.S. – China trade...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.755/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.6525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Livestock Round Up
China Phase One Trade Deal and Proteins President Trump and Vice Premier He signed the Phase One China trade deal yesterday. As had been widely expected, C...
PM Post - Uncertainties
THE OPEN March beans: 3 1/2 lower March meal: .40 lower March soyoil: .24 lower March corn: 5 lower March wheat: 8 1/4...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; Soy Export Sales; Uncertainty About Sales to China
Near Record NOPA Soybean Crush in December The National Oilseed Processors Association yesterday released its monthly soybean crush report for December. Th...
China Purchasing Loophole; China Deal Worsens Transatlantic; USMCA Victory
China Purchasing Loophole First, it is important to reemphasize the point made in yesterday’s report that the key achievement in the Phase One trade...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 650,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Technical Views - But Possible Rally
SPREADS March crush is steady at 98c/bu while oilshare works down to 35.43%. Corn spreads are weaker with July/Dec trading out to 4 1/4c from 1 3/4c,...
AM Outlook - Still Down in the Mouth
GOOD MORNING, Equities celebrated the signing of the Phase One deal, but beans were not impressed. A bearish NOPA soyoil stocks number sent soyoil pr...
Signing Day for the U.S. and China
Friday’s reports from USDA have come and gone raising very little fanfare in the process. There were mild surprises in that NASS raised corn and soyb...
Market Commentary
China was, of course, the focus for today’s trading but the CBOT opened with notable activity before the trade agreement was released. Wheat futures...
Trade Negotiator Frustrations; Larger Opportunities
Trade Negotiator Frustrations Much of the media coverage of the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement has centered around Beijing’s commitment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
U.S.-China Phase One Agreement Text
The attached PDF (made available to WPI by the office of the U.S. Trade Representative) contains the full text of the Phase One U.S.-China trade agree...
Return to Managed Trade
Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Admi...
PM Post - Rising Open Interest
THE OPEN March beans: 2 1/2 lower March meal: .20 higher March soyoil: 29 lower March corn: 3/4 higher March wheat: 4 1/2 hig...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Rapid Rise in Live Hog Price Shows Beijing’s Myopic Ineptitude Newly released information from China’s National Bureau of Statistics...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 January 2020 Milling and feed wheat prices on the domestic Russian market changed insignificantly. Meanwhile, milling rye price...
Technical Views - Correcting; Sideways; Well Bid
SPREADS March crush trades to 97c/bu while oilshare trades down to 35.74%. July/Dec corn trades from 1 3/4c to 2c, while March/May trades back out to...