THE OPEN November beans: 11 lower December meal: 3.10 lower December soyoil: 35 lower December corn: 8 lower December...
Articles
Reshaping Markets
The renminbi fell below 7 to the U.S. dollar this past Friday, and that raises the risk of at least two possible developments: 1) the exodus of money out o...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s sea port grain exports for the week ending 2 August 2019 increased to 1.09 MMT from 861 TMT the prior week. Corn exports incr...
Technical Views - Best Trend is Oilshare
SPREADS Crush margins improve with October trading to 1.10c/bu while oilshare continues to firm at 32.37%. Meal prices continue to trend downward vs...
AM Outlook - Macro Selling Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning, but the weakness is noted across the board for equities and commodity prices entering a macro day of across-th...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cent...
Tariff Impacts Not Unilateral
Tariffs are effectively a tax, but many partisans are overstating their impact. Frequently, the pundits are saying the tariffs being imposed on China only...
Late Planting and Yields
In the rush of the current bear market, some are now predicting that yields may exceed USDA’s early estimates. These forecasts are met with some incr...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.9075/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. N...
PM Post - First Week August Weather is Critical
THE OPEN November beans: 3 3/4 higher December meal: .60 higher December soyoil: 21 higher December corn: 3 1/2 higher Decem...
Technical Views - Testing the New Lows
SPREADS October crush trades top 1.06c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.94 percent. Traders continue to buy soyoil/sell meal. Dec19/D...
AM Outlook - Recovery Day
GOOD MORNING, The markets were in adjustment mode yesterday to the downside and fell sharply after Trump's announcements about more possible tariffs starti...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t...
New Tariffs on China; More ASF
Proof that the trade talks in China did not yield the progress that was expected or hoped for, President Trump announced via twitter today (see below) that...
Orange Man Bad; Scaled Subsidies; Wrong Tomato Lane
Orange Man Bad President Donald Trump tweeted today that next month he would impose 10 percent duties on the remaining $300 billion worth of goods imported...
Supply Bulls, Demand Bears
Current grain and soy futures markets remind us of two old market clichés. The first is, “bears make money, bulls make money, but hogs get sla...
Oilseed Highlights: China Inspects Argentine Soy Crush Plants; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Egypt’s Vegoil Tender
China to Inspect Argentine Soy Crush Plants The Argentine agriculture secretary’s chief of staff has indicated a Chinese delegation will begin a visi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&n...
Breaking News: Trump to Impose Additional Tariffs on Chinese Goods
From Reuters: *DJ Trump to Impose Additional 10% Tariff on Chinese Goods Trump to Impose Additional 10% Tariff on Chinese Goods on Sept. 1 * Tr...
PM Post - New Shorts meet Liquidating Longs
THE OPEN Beans: 1 1/2 lower Meal: 1.50 lower Soyoil: 13 higher Corn: steady Wheat: 7 lower The major features o...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 383,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. &...
Technical Views - Lower and Sideways
SPREADS October crush trades higher at 1.04c/bu while oilshare is steady/better at 31.84 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10 1/4c to 10 3/4c, clos...
AM Outlook - Major Reversal Coming
GOOD MORNING, The lack of significant heat across the US and a perceived break-down in Chinese/US trade talks combined to create long liquidation in corn a...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 July 2019 Domestic prices decreased more slowly in regions where there was movement from old crop to new harvest grain and gre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
War into 2021; Trade Untruths
War into 2021 The Vietnam War lasted 17 years and four months, and the war in Afghanistan now exceeds that length. The U.S.–China trade war is not ex...
PM Post - Aggressive Selling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 lower Dec meal: 1.30 lower Dec soyoil: 18 lower Dec corn: 3 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 5 l...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Again on Lower Output With demand continuing to falter, crushing activity has remained limited with utilization rates belo...
Technical Views - Good Chance We Go There
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.01c/bu while oilshare remains a fairly steady 31.86%. Corn spreads are generally weaker with the Dec 19/Dec 2...
AM Outlook - Stand Back and Sell
GOOD MORNING, End-of-month profit-taking, non-threatening weather, low exports, and negative rhetoric for the trade negotiations combined to send pri...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets s...
No Government Shutdown This Year
In a rare display of compromise (if not bipartisanship), the Trump administration and Congress reached a two-year budget deal. The plan lays out a top line...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect pos...
PM Post - Bear Markets Embrace Bearish News
THE OPEN November beans: 6 1/2 lower December meal: 2.80 lower December soyoil: 1 lower December corn: 4 1/2 lower December...
Late, Wet Equals Impacts
WPI’s Crop Progress and Conditions App provides visual snapshots of the latest USDA data on this year’s rain-delayed plantings. The pictures ar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s SAGO has advised that the pre-qualified flour mill bidders will finish their due d...
Ag Review - July 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the outlook for the 2019/20 U.S. crop mar...
Technical Views - Important Signals at the Open
SPREADS Sep crush firms to 97c/bu while oilshare values push towards 32% with a trade at 31.95% this morning. Corn spreads are weaker with Dec...
AM Outlook - Returning to Lows Eventually Breaks Them
GOOD MORNING, Better than expected crop ratings and non-threatening weather continues to weigh on prices as they move back and forth in choppy trade. ...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below av...
Ethanol Use up Slightly, But Not Enough
The EPA published the 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for ethanol and biodiesel in today’s Federal Register, an unusually long lag after publ...
Worse than Trump; Trump Fights Self-Designation; Mixed Views on Payments; U.S. Debt Risk
Worse than Trump President Trump chided that China may intentionally slow down bilateral trade negotiations until after the 2020 U.S. election, suggesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. N...
Russia as Soybean Competitor
Russia’s area planted to its five major crops has expanded 23 percent since 2012. Soybeans have gained the most over the past decade, absorbing 37 pe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The market was nearly dead last week with little demand but many sellers and China taking only a few September vessels from Brazil. There w...
PM Post - No Reason for Late Day Price Breaks
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: .80 higher Dec soyoil: 3 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 3 1/4 higher A...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News China approved wheat and soybean imports from Russia’s Kurgan region, according to an official Chinese statement made on Friday. China...
Technical Views - The Same or Lower
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare is higher again at 31.82%. The Dec/Dec corn inverse trades down to 8c from 11 3/4c. Se...
AM Outlook - Firmer on Trade Talks
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the week on a firm tone after pressure over the last several weeks resulted in a test of trading range lows. This morning's dire...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weathe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.96/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
EU-Mercosur Wreck; No Indian Epiphany
EU-Mercosur Wreck EU leaders proudly announced a trade agreement with the Mercosur group of countries last month, but that is now in political jeopardy. En...
MFP Round Two Announced
As expected, USDA announced the second round of Market Facilitation Payments (MFPs) yesterday. They are more generous than expected and can reach up to $15...
Economy Needs Fuel
Growth is slowing in the major economies (see survey graph below), and stimulus is needed to move back into a higher gear. The European Central Bank change...
PM Post - Good Weather - No Exports
THE OPEN November beans: 1 higher December meal: .20 higher December soyoil: steady December corn: 1 1/2 lower September whe...
Technical Views - Sept Wheat Big Open Interest
SPREADS Sep crush firms back to 98c/bu while oilshare eases off its monthly highs to trade to 31.78 percent. September contract liquidation con...
AM Outlook - Oil Losing to Meal
GOOD MORNING, It was a disappointing close for the bulls yesterday as prices closed defensively for most. Good weather and a lower export pace...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectat...
Expectations for 2019/20
The U.S. and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere are in the midst of the growing season for grain and oilseed crops, and we intently follow weather models...
Transatlantic Crossing; Brexit Wreck
Transatlantic Crossing EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström painted a pretty bleak picture of transatlantic relations before the European Parliamen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.995/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S.-China Trade Update; Monsoonal Effect on India’s Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Sales
Hope for Breakthrough in Next Week’s U.S.–China Negotiations It is now confirmed that USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will meet...
PM Post - MaPiToBa
THE OPEN November beans: 2 1/2 higher December meal: .30 lower December soyoil: 20 higher December corn: 1 lower Septe...
Hog and Cattle Market Cues from Cold Storage
USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report was released on Monday, and it showed the 30 June red meat and poultry inventory at 2.392 billion pounds, 97.2 per...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 659,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 90 percent from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...
Technical Views - Looking for Follow Through
SPREADS Sep crush falls to 93c/bu while oilshare continues to advance upward to new monthly highs of 31.76 percent. Dec/March corn widens out t...
AM Post - Trade Talk Optimism
GOOD MORNING, Price action continues in trading range territory with the bean market well bid from $9.00 on the back of more optimism as regards trade talk...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw notably firmer prices with corn up 4 ¼ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents ,and SRW wheat up 8 cents. Forecasts for another he...
Good USMCA Vibes; Real Battle over Fake Meat
Good USMCA Vibes The chief deputy Democratic whip in the U.S. House of Representatives, Henry Cuellar (Texas), said that Congress will pass the USMCA this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.9775/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Buy Oil/Sell Meal = Day's Best Feature
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/4 higher Dec meal: .60 higher Dec soyoil: 23 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Sep wheat: ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Big Live Hog Price Increase As expected, the June survey of major hog producers in China reveals that the live pig price has begun to take off.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-19 July 2019 Domestic grain prices decreased sharply as more regions switched to 2019 yield prices. Only corn prices managed to e...
Technical Views - Strong September Wheat
SPREADS Sep wheat/corn spreads finished the day at contract lows Tuesday, indicating further weakness could be ahead. This morning, Sep wheat/c...
AM Outlook - Where There's Smoke, There's Fire
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to monitor the pace of demand, weather, and the overall production possibilities for the Corn Belt. However, it wa...
MFP Payments and Policy Round Up
Now that a budget agreement has been struck that will avoid another government shutdown, Congress will be in session for three more days before the August...
USMCA’s Timid Opposition; India’s Gift to Trump; Warren’s Gamble with Opponents
USMCA’s Timid Opposition A coalition of 600 business groups wrote a letter urging the U.S. Congress to quickly pass the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading featured extended weakness in the soy complex while wheat and corn managed small gains. Yesterday’s fund selling pushed markets tow...
Heat of 2019; the Future
Markets are still trying to figure out the impact of 2019 weather on crop production and historical references only make it partially easier. Prices in the...
PM Post - Weaker Wheat; No Caution in Corn
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 1/4 lower Dec meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil: 18 higher Dec corn: 1 higher Sep wheat: 1 1/4 higher The mar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The latest USDA-FAS report on Turkey says that very dry weather could reduce the wheat and barley produ...
Technical Views - History of Failure
SPREADS Sep crush firms to 95c/bu from 92c/bu yesterday with a bounce in oilshare up to 31.19%. Dec/March corn trades from 8 1/4c to 8 3/4c, while th...
AM Outlook - Get Out
GOOD MORNING, Improved weather patterns dominate price direction as grain longs liquidate in front of the USDA report. Weakest performance for the da...
Murphy’s Law for Corn
Murphy’s Law (i.e., anything that can go wrong will go wrong) has been in full force for corn farmers this year. Floods, cold weather and high soil m...
New Players, Same Song
U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland said last week that the new EU leadership under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made him op...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina FOB replacement levels are still at 40Q, and the local market has a few offers of about 50,000 MT/day. One cargo traded FOB at 34Q for A...
Freight Ignores Geopolitics
Iran is seizing foreign-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is shooting down drones in the region. Analysts say that Tehran is intentiona...
PM Post: Markets Getting Toppy
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: 0.60 lower Dec soyoil: steady Dec corn: 6 lower Sep wheat: 2 1/2 lower ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News 819,000 MT of grain were exported from Ukrainian seaports during 13-19 July 2019, up sharply from 499,000 MT the previous week and mostly des...
Technical Views - Open in Red
SPREADS Corn spreads have firmed with Sep/Dec corn trading into 8c from 8 1/2c. The Dec/Dec corn inverse is weaker, however, trading from 17 1/2c dow...
AM Outlook - Corn Vulnerable
GOOD MORNING, Prices ended on an upbeat note Friday on rumors of Chinese bean buying out of South America along with stories of low protein Brazilian beans...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 ce...
Ho-Hum Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
Two key cattle reports came out this afternoon after the market close, but there won’t be much excitement generated from either. The monthly Cattle o...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In th...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent at 11.5 million head on July 1, 2019. The inventory was 2 percent above July 1, 2018. This is the highe...
Attack on Institutions; EU CAP Divisions; Transatlantic Similarities on Refugees; Biden Farm Policy
Attack on Institutions Donald Trump campaigned in 2016 against the institutions of government and called for “draining the swamp.” Now his oppo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. N...
PM Post - Technical Covering Following a Bearish Week
THE OPEN November beans: 9 3/4 higher December meal: 2.40 higher December soyoil: 13 higher December corn: 2 1/2 higher September...
Realistic Expectations
China’s economic growth and now the trade war have rewritten the demand scenario much as the Black Sea region has rewritten the supply side. The Russ...
Technical Views - Contraseasonal Due to Weather
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare weakens to 30.95%. Corn spreads are slightly wider with Dec/March trading out to 8 1/2c while Sep/D...
AM Outlook: Healthy Dose of Housecleaning
GOOD MORNING, Topping formations and slightly improved forecasts for next week shook the weaker corn bull out this week on a healthy dose of housecleaning...
Livestock Roundup: Losing Count of Chinese Pigs; Cattle on Feed Preview
Losing Count of Chinese Pigs Yesterday China announced a new African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Sichuan Province, bringing the total now reported to mor...
Trump Policy Gets Support; Friends and Neighbors
Trump Policy Gets Support Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is in Washington this week and told an Atlantic Council audience that instead of fighting the Tru...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue
Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging on...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...
Risk-off Day
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 3 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 2 higher Dec corn: 7 lower Sep wheat: 6 3/4 lower A...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 347,300 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 22 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Co...
Watching Nov Beans and Sep Wheat
SPREADS Sep crush is firmer at 98c/bu while oilshare firms back over 30% to trade to 31.10% as meal dips against a firmer soyoil market. Corn spreads...
Weather Makes it Weaker
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower as more organized rainfall hits key growing areas across Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa. Heavy showers...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat fu...
USMCA Hope; ERS/NIFA Solution
USMCA Hope House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Massachusetts) reportedly said that congressional Democrats do not want to delay a vote...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 July 2019 The downward trend in domestic prices continued for the most part. However, the average milling wheat (12.5 percent p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.055/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Basic Explanation of Current Technical Markets
Bottom Line: Markets are technically sideways until there is new information to guide them. It is fairly interesting that if you pop up a bean, wheat, or c...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Monthly Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years With China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fal...
Choppy, Sloppy and Thin
THE OPEN: November beans: 4 1/2 higher December meal: 1.40 higher December soyoil: 17 higher December corn: &nb...
Technical Wonder Day
SPREADS Sep crush trades firmer at 97c/bu while oilshare firms to 31.25%. Buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues. Dec/Dec corn inverse trad...
So Low, Nowhere to Go but Up
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to work into trading range territory, with current precipitation taking us down towards trading range lows encouraged by the...
A Guess at MFP Per Acre Payments
The Office of Management Budget reported yesterday that its review of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) trade mitigation payments is finished. However,...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was als...
Race to Fix Labor
U.S. agriculture utilized a quarter-million temporary migrant workers last year under the H-2A agricultural guest worker program, and it was still far from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.075/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...
What Crop to Grow?
Farmers mostly want to grow what is easy and profitable. Excluding government payments, all the major crops have turned negative for U.S. farmers in terms...
Weeks to Gain, Two Days to Lose
THE OPEN: November beans: 12 lower December meal: 4.20 lower December soyoil: 20 lower December corn: 8 l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has advised that fuel prices will be reviewed every three months after recent increases of up to...
How the Day Trades
SPREADS Sep crush trades at 95.55c/bu while oilshare firms further to 31.27%. Dec/March corn trades out to 7 1/2c from 6 3/4c while the Dec/Dec inver...
Effects from Improvement
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning as more rains spread across the Midwest. Good rains moved through Wisconsin and Minnesota overnight, with...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pen...
Barriers and Ag’s Future; Plurilateral Future
Barriers and Ag’s Future The Greens and other liberal groups in Europe have aligned their sights on turning European agriculture into a chemical-free...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market was almost entirely dead last week with Chinese buyers sidelined and not bidding on any position. Their absence...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&...
Smaller and Smaller Crops
The market adage that “big crops grow bigger” means that forecasts typically start out conservative, and a season that starts well typically en...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the re...
Down Today, up Tomorrow?
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 lower Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 2 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Sep wheat: 6 lower Th...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices are mixed across Europe and the Black Sea today as the market continues to react to the WASDE report. French prices are slightly...
Sideways but Watching the Heat
SPREADS Sep crush is weaker this morning at 93c/bu while oilshare firms to 31 percent. The Dec/Dec corn inverse trades from 41 3/4c down to 33 1/2c,...
This Week: A Run at Previous Highs
GOOD MORNING, The markets posted new highs in the recent rally with gap-higher technical action that found some interested sellers and gap-closure. N...
The Fed’s Upcoming Decision: To Cut or Not to Cut?
The Federal Reserve looks poised to cut interest rates - or does it? This depends upon whether you consider what the Fed says it looks at – inflation...
Charting a New Course; Economic Wake
Charting a New Course Former Vice President and now Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said this week that President Trump’s trade war tarif...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day ses...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.5925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.23/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
More Upside than Downside
Cow/calf operations in the southern Plains and across the U.S. are facing sharply negative production margins. WPI’s latest research suggests the ave...
Technicals are in Control
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 1.40 higher Dec soyoil: 16 lower Dec corn: 5 higher Sep wheat: 1...
Sideways and Testing New Highs
SPREADS Sep crush is lower again today, trading down to 95c/bu while oil trends weaker as well, trading down to 30.95 percent. The Dec/Dec cor...
Surprises Bring the Most Bang
GOOD MORNING, The WASDE’s major takeaway: we have less wheat supply around the world than we previously thought. This kicked off a short-covering ral...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 284,400 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. Corn: Net sales of 505,400 MT for 2...
The Long View
Grain traders from commodity fund managers to the big multinational agribusinesses have consistently complained about the lack of profitable trading opport...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Notes: Global oilseed exports for 2019/20 are projected at 175.0 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Notes: Beginning stocks are reduced with higher 2018/19 residual use more than offsetting lower crush and seed use. Residual use for 2018/19 is...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Notes: Soybean production for 2019/20 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28...
Livestock Roundup: ASF and Turkey; Hog Expansion Not Slowing
ASF and Turkey Turkey prices have been in a relative tailspin for two years. Wholesale hen prices started dropping in mid-2017 from about $1/pound and reac...
WASDE Corn
USDA Notes: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production and beginning stocks, greater feed and residual use, lower food, seed, an...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies ar...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Soy Highlights; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Soy-Related Changes in USDA WASDE Report USDA somewhat surprised market analysts today by reducing the forecast for U.S. soybean production in 2019 by more...
The PM Post - WASDE Neutral Corn, Bearish Soy and Wheat
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 lower Dec meal: .90 lower Dec soyoil: 4 lower Dec corn: 4 3/4 lower Sep wheat: 3 1/4 lower Prices opened as expected with further c...
Retaliation Against China; Retaliation Against Europe; SOE Concerns
Retaliation Against China The market rumor is that China is inquiring about U.S. soybeans, and it better be or else. President Trump and economic advisor L...
QUICK HIT - July WASDE Report
JULY WASDE Yield: unchanged for corn, and slightly lower for beans bean yield: 48.5 bpa, generally as expected, maybe a bit higher corn yield: ...
Rumors are Swirling
SPREADS Sep crush is lower trading down to 96c/bu, new lows for the move down after prices had stabilized at 1.00c/bu. Oilshare sits at 31.11%. ...
AM Outlook - CBOT to Open Weaker
Overnight trends once again feature a slightly firmer soy complex versus mixed corn values. Funds purchased the board yesterday and appear ready to get lon...
QUICK HIT - Analysts' Estimates for 11 July WASDE
CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Jo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, so...
Drab WTO Reforms; Precaution or Patents
Drab WTO Reforms The U.S. has motivated other major WTO members to seek reforms for the organization, and the latest list of proposals reveals how moribund...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 July 2019 Domestic prices mostly continued to drop as there were increasingly more offers and bids for 2019 production and fewer...
Mostly Higher Open
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higherDec meal: .50 higherDec soyoil: 25 higherDec corn: 1/4 lowerSep wheat:&...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs for Fifth Straight Week With feed demand continuing to soften as more previously unidentified African swine fever (ASF) c...
New Product Launch, Temporary Website Downtime
Today, WPI will proudly launch a new report, Technical Perspectives, in cooperation with Lefcourt Commodities Forecasting. The new report will feature tech...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s t...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-...
Economic Chemistry Power; Plan B; Role of Government
Economic Chemistry Power The major powers (Europe, Russia, U.S. and China) have long used their dominant economic influence to coerce other nations into co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close...
A Look at MFP Payments Through the WTO and the Federal Budget
On 24 July 2018, USDA Secretary Perdue announced a $12 billion trade mitigation package that would be administered in three parts: Food Purchases and Distr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS According to the EU’s latest Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) report, drought conditions...
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost; Varied GMO Approaches
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost Junnosuke Kobara at Nikkei provides analysis showing that while Japanese farmers may be few in number, they have outsized influenc...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was firm after the Sunday night weather forecast called for warm/dry Midwest conditions, prompting the market to add a weather premium. C...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecast...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Chinese demand remains very slow as reductions in Dalian soymeal futures exceeded those of CME futures, leaving gross crushing mar...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Ethanol Facing Structural Changes in Liquid Fuel Market
The old saying “can’t see the forest for the trees” may be apt for the ethanol outlook for the next few years. Indeed, there’s been...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News WPI sources indicate EU and Black Sea exporters are becoming concerned about the lack of export business booked for the 2019/20 crop year. Wi...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the...
EPA Announces 2020 Biofuel Volumes
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler signed the agency’s proposed 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) today, w...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 276,500 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. Corn: Net sales of 175,600 MT for 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. No...
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions; Deference to Israel
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions China’s position is that if a bilateral trade agreement is reached with the U.S., both sides must remove the punit...
The Big Picture: Global Cash Prices
Recent market analysis has placed much focus on fundamental conditions in the U.S. and how supply-side factors may shape the markets this year. Given the e...
Scavenger Fish; African Progress; Glass Half-full
Scavenger Fish To help offset the adverse impacts of the trade war, the Trump Administration has set up a program to purchase surplus commodities off the m...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw markets firm after yesterday’s higher close in corn. Commercial pricing was heavy yesterday in the corn market and the overnigh...
China In-Country Analysis
TRUMP-XI G20 MEETING ONLY BRINGS A PAUSE TO THE HOT RHETORIC Despite President Trump’s overly optimistic and glowing reviews about the current pause...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4125/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.14/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Hog Market’s Bearish Outlook
The world’s largest pork market, China, may be experiencing a more than 50 percent decline in production and yet U.S. hog prices are softening. Part...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market Overview: 24-28 June 2019 During the week in review, grain domestic prices were still a cocktail of 2018 and 2019 prices while e...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw prices mostly lower as wheat futures came under pressure from the advancing HRW harvest. Trading volume was moderate overnight as fun...
Another Stab at CFTC Reauthorization
Congress will soon be considering the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) re-authorization act; the most recent actual legislative authorization wa...
Technology Uptake Policy; Trade War Fallout
Technology Uptake Policy Climate change is making its mark in the U.S. Midwest this season with excess moisture and in other parts of the globe whether its...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0325/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Feeder Cattle Receipts Plummet, Market Finding a Bottom?
Falling feeder cattle prices, good pasture conditions, and tightening feedlot margins are working to reduce the number of feeder cattle entering feedlots...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt is talking to France about 35 million Euros for the funding of small and medium agriculture organ...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading started higher with a dead cat bounce from Friday’s USDA-report-induced losses. The market eventually turned lower, however, and co...
Ethanol Margins Low, Politics High
USDA released its Grain Crushing and Co-Production report today; total ethanol use of corn in May was 460 million bushels, which stands at 104 percent of A...
Fake War News; Another Fund
Fake War News The U.S. and China announced a resumption of bilateral trade negotiations, supposedly calming markets even though nothing has changed about t...
MERCOSUR Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Demand was slow last week with Chinese buyers waiting for the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 Summit. Given th...
Clues to Holiday Schedule Trading
Some sayings about the futures market (or equities) ring true and others not so much. For example, “this time it’s different” is a risky...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.1175/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat prices are lower to start the week with French and German prices under pressure as Egypt recently passed on French wheat offer...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much mo...
No Ag Trade Details in Debates; A Beef with Free Trade
No Ag Trade Details in Debates Democratic primary candidates for the U.S. presidency debated this week, and little was said about trade and nothing about a...
Taking Stock of the Political Risks Facing Agriculture
Markets, industries and companies are constantly exposed to political risk (i.e., the impact that changes in policies and regulations can have on profitabi...
Final Corn and Soy Area is Likely Less
USDA reportedly shocked the market by failing to cut U.S. planted corn acres by the amount expected and instead nipping more area out of soybeans. The agen...
Ag Review - June 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the surprising volatility of June 2019's...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a r...
Eastern Europe’s Good Deal; Firms Prepare for Long War; Slick Cooking the Books
Eastern Europe’s Good Deal The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published the results from analyzing the quality of 1,400 foods acros...
Hogs and Pigs Report
According to today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the total inventory on 1 June was 75.5 million head, 104 percent of last year and 101 percent of the...
Oilseed Highlights: Less Canola/Rapeseed; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Paraguay and VATs; U.S. Soy Plantings
Lower Production Forecasts for Canola in Canada and Rapeseed in Europe Two reports released yesterday indicate both Canada and the EU-28 are likely to prod...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.4675/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 612,000 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. Corn: Net sales of 294,900 MT for 2...
China Long Game; Wasted Effort
China Long Game Reports indicate that following the U.S.–China trade negotiations this weekend, President Trump will likely delay imposing tariffs on...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 c...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4325/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 June 2019 Domestic prices quoted in the South, Volga Valley and Black Soil were mainly for 2019 production, which is why they...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Meat Imports Surge in May as Domestic Shortfall Increases Monthly data from China’s Customs Bureau shows that total meat and offal imports...
Inflation, Monetary Policy and Ag Trade
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made some noteworthy changes to its economic outlook at last week’s meeting, revisin...
Organic Worries; Lessons for Xi-Trump Meeting
Organic Worries The organic food market is growing fast, especially in France, and projected to reach $100 billion globally, according to Ecocert. This has...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Wheat versus Corn Pricing Dynamics
Global wheat production is forecast to rise 6.7 percent in 2019/20, which is causing prices to fall 1.9 percent. Meanwhile, world corn production is predic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt reports that the government has purchased 3.66 MMT of local wheat. The total is expected to incre...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended shor...
Democrats on Trump Trade; Eagle versus Panda; Dems Back Trump
Democrats on Trump Trade The first Democratic presidential primary debate occurs this Wednesday, and candidates will be pressed for details on their variou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The market was quiet last week on slow Chinese demand. Dalian soymeal futures fell 2 percent last week with tweet-based news...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Southeast Europe wheat prices were mixed today with Bulgarian prices declining and FOB offers from Romania, France, and Germany rising slight...
Biodiesel Tax Credit and RFS Volumes with Some Surprises
The House Ways and Means Committee completed action on a tax extender package last Thursday night. It includes a three-year extension of the $1/gallon tax...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today after the market closed. The total inventory on feed in 1,000+ capacity feedlots was 11.7 milli...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday&rsqu...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent - This is the highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. However, light weight placements were down signific...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&n...
USMCA Epiphany; Rotten Tomatoes; Commodities Not a Worry
USMCA Epiphany Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit to Washington this week revealed an epiphany by President Trump and hope on the Hill. I...
Pork Production Disconnected from Corn
The tighter global corn supply, a result of flooding and delayed planting in the U.S., is occurring simultaneously with China’s increased demand for...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more modera...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview; Pork Packer Margins; Appropriations Update
Cattle on Feed Preview Tomorrow USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. The industry’s pre-report estimates peg the total number of catt...
Trade Blame Game; Funding the War; Attack on Productivity
Trade Blame Game Deborah Elms of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre told a Washington audience this week that the U.S. flouting international trade rul...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Margins; China and DDGS; Chinese Crush Volume
U.S. Soybean Export Sales More Than Double Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 13 June indicated the volume of U.S. soybea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.265/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Ju...
Rising Menu Prices Slow Restaurant Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released last week, shows growth in restaurant and grocery store sales is slowing. The...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 187,600 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. The primary destinations were Algeria (59,900 M...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the avera...
USMCA Codification; Mitigating the Mitigation; Expanding the Conflict
USMCA Codification What seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago now looks like a growing possibility – U.S. congressional passage of the USMCA. USTR Rob...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines abou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2225/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have conti...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the...
Legs of War; No Cigar
Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and...
Shifting Baseline Leaves Real Crop Progress Still Unknown
USDA issued the crop progress report yesterday, but interpreting any meaning from it is almost impossible under current conditions because the baseline of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are man...
Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?
There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 Jun...
Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri
Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s mil...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for n...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.5475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Southeast Europe and Black Sea wheat markets are mostly steady to start the week despite rising prices in France, Germany and the U.S. The Bl...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and o...
Appropriations Amendments Tie USDA’s Hands and Scrutinize Administration on Trade
The House ag appropriations bill includes many restrictions on USDA’s use of appropriated funding, and there are 70 amendments that provide more stip...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.53/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering...
Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook
Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Poli...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef
At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houst...
Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models
Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales for the 2019/2020 marketing year, which began June 1, totaled 47,600 MT metric tons, resulting increases for Japan (112,100 MT, incl...
Oilseed Highlights: PNW Soybeans; Damage to U.S. Soy Industry; U.S. Soy Export Sales
High Mississippi Barge Rates Make PNW Soy Shipments a Bargain Normally, cash prices for soybeans are about $0.50/bushel ($18.40/MT) higher at export elevat...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. J...
Uncertainty Reigns
Despite the plethora of new data sources such as crop tours, field surveys, satellite imagery and the numerous forecasts they support, there is still great...
End of GMO Panic; Contrasts and Irony
End of GMO Panic When genetically modified wheat was curiously found in an Oregon field in 2013, some importers cancelled their shipments, others stepped u...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2625/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 June 2019 Prices on the domestic market continued to either decrease moderately or remain stable in RUB expression. Export price...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up as Crushing Activity Increases With feed demand continuing to show solid improvement through the first full week of June, soy...
Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy; Contrasting Approaches to Moving
Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy The persistent question is, when will American agriculture stop supporting Trump trade policy given its deleterious impacts...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks. The 2019/20 season-average price for...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor change...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. J...
SOEs Rule
The U.S. grain trade business has been largely dominated by privately-owned companies for the past several decades. Their efficiency at the business is dem...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Reported: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Beginning sto...
WASDE Corn
USDA Reported: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are dow...
Between Prevented Plantings and MFP: How Much More Corn?
All corn acres in the U.S. are past the deadline for full crop insurance coverage, meaning that farmers can either elect to take prevented planting pa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the post-Ramadan Eid al Fitr period of religious holidays in the Middle East an...
Ethanol Margins Squeezed Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Ethanol production ended May at a pace of 1.044 million barrels per day (bpd), which was the lowest level in a month after the buildup for the summer drivi...
More Tariff Threats but Progress; Subsidizing Fake News; Ethanol Supply Destruction
More Tariff Threats but Progress Fresh off his claim of successfully coercing Mexico via tariff threats into greater responsibility for the immigration mes...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat add...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The market was quiet last week as the Chinese were not actively buying and instead waited for basis to fall after rising for the past sever...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.075/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week as the hot, dry weather over parts of Russia did not scare it. Weather maps are showing ample soil...
USDA’s June WASDE Might Be Suspect
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply and demand) estimates tomorrow (Tuesday). The market is searching for answers about how greatly corn and soybean p...
More Tariffs Please; Food Tribalism and Consumer Contradictions
More Tariffs Please The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its analysis that concluded the Trump tariffs on China have had very little adverse impa...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.045/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...
Mixed Signals on the Economy, Trade and Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve has released it Beige Book summary of economic conditions around the country. Prominent was the plight of the ag economy, specifically...
And Now We Wait
There is little doubt now that the U.S. corn crop will be just a shadow of what was expected six weeks ago. The remaining question is just how much below U...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock Shedding Pounds?; Pork Plant Line Speed Rule Blocked
Livestock Shedding Pounds? Hog producers have been caught in a whipsaw of low hog prices due to tariffs, a dramatic rally (given the African swine fever si...
Planes, Trains and Automobiles; Death by Duties; Life with Meat
Planes, Trains and Automobiles Part of the focus on China pertains to the extent that the government controls the means of commerce. It is pervasive to be...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for sprin...
Export Sales
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period May 24-30, 2019. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 26,000 metric tons for delivery in the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.1/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. ...
Water Unveils Weakness
The U.S. National Weather Service says that the nation has just experienced the wettest 12 months in the 124 years of the agency’s recordkeeping. Las...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases; Prevented Planting; U.S. Soy Export Sales
China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases Apparently Headed for National Reserve Reports out of China indicate Sinograin and COFCO intend to import the remainde...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of...
Protectionism Progresses; Misinformation Ceases; Wrong Tool
Protectionism Progresses U.S. trading partners (and many Americans) hoping to wait out the presidency of Donald Trump for someone more conciliatory in the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market again either mostly declined moderately or remained stable in RUB expression, but the d...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.9075/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises as Feed Prices Trend Upward Strong downstream demand for soymeal continued last week. Meanwhile, soybean crushers have gra...
Assistance Payments as Unpredictable as the Weather
After an approximate five-month delay, Congress has approved a $19 billion disaster bill that would cover in addition to other relief efforts, certain agri...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importanc...
Future of Trump Trade Policy; Iced Coffee
Future of Trump Trade Policy The U.S. has lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers than most other countries. The theory of Trump trade policy has...
The Bullish Case for Beef
Live cattle futures dropped like a rock through early June but may have overshot the fair value of the underlying commodity. This spring, large fed cattle...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2525/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Aswan area is said to have the country’s first outbreak of fall armyworms, and the...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initial...
Scaled-Back RIN Reforms and Conflicting EPA Outlook on E15 Impact
As expected, last Friday the EPA published its final rule to allow year-round E15 sales. That rule included a much scaled-down proposal regarding the tradi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is on fire as it has followed the U.S. futures market rally. Meanwhile, the weather in southern Russia is far from perfe...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
- It’s been such a long time since grain and oilseed markets have made limit moves higher or lower that a review of those limits might be warranted...
Suicidal Tariffs; Not Beyond Meat
Suicidal Tariffs President Trump irrationally announced that he would impose 5 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico in less than two weeks and take them to...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president a...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 153,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 63 percent from the prior 4-week ave...
Down the Road: A Look at June’s Market Factors
With May and its ag commodity rally in the rearview mirror, it seems an appropriate time to look at what factors are likely to influence the markets in Jun...
USDA and Congress Introduce More Uncertainty to Planting Decisions
When USDA announced the 2109 version of its Market Facilitation Program (MFP) last week, which is intended to mitigate the impact of ongoing trade tensions...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.03/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Production; Trade Breakthrough
Record Meat Production Red meat production hit a record high for April at 4.522 billion pounds, split almost evenly between beef at 2.262 billion pounds an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday&...
Not US, MCA; Pride over Sustenance; Everyone's Politician
Not US, MCA Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tabled the USMCA agreement in Parliament, and Mexican President André Manuel López Obr...
Don’t Sell in May
Equity traders have an adage about the tendency for stocks to enter a lull during the summer. “Sell in May and go away” has been a staple for y...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soy Imports; U.S. Soy Price Advantage; U.S. Soy Plantings
China to Continue Importing U.S. Soybeans but Unlikely to Purchase More Bloomberg reported today that sources in China indicate state-owned enterprises COF...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.3625/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, up $0.24 from yesterday's close. ...