Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.88/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. ...
Articles
PM Post - Spreads
THE OPEN Nov beans: up 8 3/4 Dec meal: up 2.80 Dec soyoil: up 19 Dec corn: up 2 3/4 Dec wheat: up 4 3/4 Prices opened towards the higher end of tradi...
Long-term ASF Impact
In just two years, African Swine Fever is likely to have reduced Chinese pork production by more than a third. However, Oklahoma State University economist...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Iran has announced plans to increase the area for wheat planting by 500,000 hectares to 2.25 million he...
Technical Views - Targeting Recent Highs
Interested in trying Technical Perspectives or adding it to your company account? Email Matt Herrington at mherrington@agrilink.com for...
AM Outlook - PRC Bean Buys
Interested in trying Technical Perspectives or adding it to your company account? Email Matt Herrington at mherrington@agrilink.com for details.&...
Market Commentary
The CBOT started out higher with an overnight rally, but lackluster corn demand and a lack of Chinese sales announcements/rumors left the grain markets to...
CAP Battle Tomorrow; Weaponized Trade Policy; Too Much Internet
CAP Battle Tomorrow Environmental groups will be leading protests tomorrow as the new European Parliament (EP) meets in Strasbourg. Using small farmers as...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplem...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8725/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview After several weeks of uncertainty, the market is starting to realize that the trade war won’t find a short-term solution. T...
Growing African Food Market
Long considered a basket case, scarred by colonialism and on permanent aid dependency, Sub-Saharan Africa is receiving more attention these days for its po...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s weekly seaport grain exports increased 47 percent last week, reaching 1.13 MMT. Wheat exports totaled 557,000 MT while corn s...
PM Post - Coming Down for Room to Go Up
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 3/4 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 1 lower Dec corn: 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 1/2 higher The mar...
Technical Views - Soybeans Heading Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare is lower correcting down to 32.87%. Bean spreads are wider with Jan/March trading out to one-month...
AM Outlook - Covering Shorts
GOOD MORNING, The focus continues to be on harvest weather in the US, planting weather in SA, and politics. In the process, funds have covered in a g...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nb...
The Evolving Trading System; CAP’s Fault; Fooled Foodies
The Evolving Trading System WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo laments that people are forgetting the importance of a rule-based system of economic...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT today was muted with traders mostly evening positions, taking some profits, and generally not adding to or subtracting from risk ahead...
Rise in Wheat Futures
Chicago wheat futures have been climbing for the past few weeks based on still somewhat speculative supply losses due to adverse weather conditions and sol...
Canadian Federal Elections and Ag Trade
Canada will hold its federal parliamentary election on Monday 21 October. Polling shows a tight race. The latest 10 major published polls (for what polling...
PM Post - Opportunities to Own
THE OPEN Nov beans: steady Dec soyoil: 13 higher Dec meal: .60 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 1 lower Prices start...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 395,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 24 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...
Technical Views - All Technical Today
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 78c/bu, which is in recovery mode off the lows this week of 73c/bu. Dec oilshare trades to 33.13%. Corn spreads wid...
AM Outlook - New Highs
GOOD MORNING, The wheat and soyoil markets took center stage this week advancing to new highs for their trading ranges. Chicago wheat continues to be...
Bad Tariff Idea; Hurdles to New Breeding Techniques
Bad Tariff Idea In an effort to rationalize the imposition of tariffs by President Trump, some Republicans are trying to create support for them by directi...
Livestock Roundup
Broilers Under Short Term Pressure Meat demand remains steady with production. USDA’s forecast ending stocks for the fourth quarter of 2019 remains r...
Market Commentary
The futures market ended the day with weakness where there had been strength as in lean hogs and soyoil, and strength where there had been weakness, such a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9475/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush, Soy Sales to China, GMO Cotton, Ukraine Oilseeds
NOPA September Crush Well Below Expectations The September NOPA report released on Wednesday indicated 152.566 million bushels (4.153 MMT) of soybeans were...
PM Post - Wheat's Missing Fundamentals
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 3/4 higher Dec meal: 2.60 higher Dec soyoil: 14 higher Dec corn: 4 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 7 3/4 hi...
Better than it Was
The year 2019 has been difficult for cow-calf producers with heavy winter snowstorms that reduced calf survival rates, massive spring flooding, and the sum...
Technical Views - Up Across the Board
SPREADS Dec crush falls to 70c/bu, new ctr lows, on slower meal demand. Oilshare firms to 33.24% after dropping to 32.55% last week. Dec/...
AM Outlook - Go Wheat!
GOOD MORNING, Wheat strength is dominant this morning, as prices jump to new trading range highs as the last of the shorts cover. Spread trade contin...
Morality Trade
Trade and industry are not just distorted by tariffs a la Donald Trump, but increasingly by sanctions intended to protect a political or moral principle.&n...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with little conviction. Corn and soybeans headed lower while wheat managed to find support on spread trading and technical buying. The m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9175/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1325/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&n...
Bear Market Impacts on Labor
U.S. farmers are hurting financially from commodity prices that have been falling for half a dozen years and now exaggerated by the trade war with China. H...
PM Post - Buy Beans Against Corn
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 1/2 higher Dec meal: .70 higher Dec soyoil: 5 higher Dec corn: 2 1/4 lower Dec wheat:&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 October 2019 Domestic Russian grain (including corn) prices kept growing due to active demand from both domestic buyers and for...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry a...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 77.83c/bu while oilshare is back below 33% to 32.96%. Corn spreads weaken with Dec/March trading out to 11 3/...
AM Outlook - Back in Trading Ranges
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to setback into trading ranges. Funds were sellers of 10K corn contracts yesterday as harvest rolls in and cash w...
Ethanol versus Oil; Impeachment Answer/U.S.-China Outcome; Self-Designation
Ethanol versus Oil Global ethanol use is predicted to increase but its main purpose is not to replace oil but to boost octane and thus reduce air pollution...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the a...
Market Commentary
The CBOT started lower today with corn, the soy complex, and wheat all moving into the red overnight. Corn finished the overnight down 4 cents and soybeans...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9325/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Miracle
The return of the Black Sea region as the breadbasket of the world is really a story about productivity gain. Over a decade (2008 to 2017), both China and...
PM Post - Least Resistance is Lower
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 1 higher Dec corn: 3 lower Dec wheat: 3 3/4...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The World Bank expects the Egyptian economy will grow by 5.8 percent this fiscal year which began 1 July 2019. Growth is...
Technical Views - Awaiting Crop Progress
SPREADS Dec crush trades close to contract lows at 74c/bu while oilshare is a steady 32.55%. Corn spreads are weaker today as harvest resumes, with D...
AM Outlook - Ridding Some Length Seems Reasonable
GOOD MORNING, The markets continued to be bandied about by what could be first steps in a long process toward a trade resolution between the US/China. ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 1...
What the Trade Deficit Says about the U.S. Economy
USDA released its weekly sales report last week with some mixed news, but another trade report has some interesting insights into the overall economy: the...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT amid the U.S. Columbus Day holiday was cautious but saw mostly higher prices/buyer support. Technical buying fueled some speculative bu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The market was pretty calm last week while waiting for definition on a few points. The first was the October WASDE report, which showed fewe...
PM Post - Friendlier than Expected
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: .80 lower Dec soyoil: 4 lower Dec corn: 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 3 higher The ma...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Ukraine has already exported 15.096 MMT of grain since the 2019/20 marketing year started, a 4.6 MMT increase from the same time in 2018/19...
Sustainability’s Implications
As the EU presses its farmers to adopt practices that are environmentally sound, these producers increasingly agitate to have the same standards applied to...
Technical Views - Challenging the Highs
SPREADS Crush trades down to 78c/bu while oilshare trades down to 32.55%. Corn spreads narrow further with Dec/March trading into 9 1/4c from 10 1/4c...
AM Outlook - Higher but Watch for Reversal
GOOD MORNING, Prices traded to new trading range highs on the weekend storm that damages immature crops and ultimately reduces production. This weath...
Market Commentary
Grain markets shrugged off yesterday’s bearish WASDE with multiple headlines circulating today that fueled buying strength. Most notably, reports of...
Mini-Deal Rationale; Incongruous Negotiations
Mini-Deal Rationale The details are not complete at this time, but reports indicate that the Trump Administration has reached a partial agreement with the...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9775/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. N...
PM Post - Bullishness Not Without Risk
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 higher Dec soyoil: 18 higher Dec meal: 2.90 higher Dec corn: 5 1/...
Technical Views - Sideways to Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 82.43c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.55%. Bull-spreads are in play with Dec/March corn trading into 10 1/4c from 11 1/2c...
AM Outlook - Rethinking Yesterday
GOOD MORNING, The markets are firmer this morning with more optimistic viewpoints as to trade negotiations combined with the impact of the storm crossing t...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reports: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 30.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Reports: The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short ton, up $20.00. ...
Market Commentary
The market has much uncertainty to grapple with – a looming Midwest winter storm, U.S. – China trade negotiations and, until noon today, a USDA...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Reports: U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 107.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month. Soybean production is f...
S&DT Hypocrisy
The WTO operates as a democracy and it is said that democracies fail when the citizens ask for more than it can deliver. The Trump Administration goes to w...
WASDE Corn
USDA Reports: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly lower production, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, greater feed...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reports: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat product...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8025/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.93/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales, Soybeans S&D, South American Drought
Big U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated exporters made very large sales of soybeans and soymeal in the week en...
Livestock Roundup
WASDE Today’s WASDE report shows higher red meat and poultry production for 2019 and 2020 driven by pork and broilers. Pork production will be pushed...
PM Post - Funds Read it Correctly
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: .50 higher Dec soyoil: 9 higher Dec corn: 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 2 3/4 higher Trade opened...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 521,900 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 59 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. C...
World Wheat’s Sad Story
A long time ago, we spent quite a few years involved in merchandising U.S. wheat for export to markets scattered around the globe from the former Soviet Un...
Technical Views - Busy Day
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 84.48c/bu while oilshare sets back to 32.46%. Spreads are slightly wider with Dec/March corn trading out to 11 1/2c from...
AM Outlook - WASDE, Weather, Negotiations
GOOD MORNING, Report day, negotiations day, weather day. In front of all this, prices moved higher this week as shorts elect to reduce risk. Fu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Trading started out on a firmer note before bulls backed off and let prices drift lower into the close. The trade is cautious of being too bullish about th...
WTO Reform Leverage; Impeachment’s Path
WTO Reform Leverage U.S. Congressional Democrats may impeach Donald Trump but it will not be over his trade policy. They are still debating whether his ren...
Gambling on Weather and Trade
Reports are indicating that as part of the trade war remedy, China is offering to boost its importation of U.S.-origin soybeans to 30 MMT, from the current...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September 30 – 4 October 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices grew (except for corn prices) due to active demand from both do...
PM Post - Should Setback but Momentum is Higher
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 higher Dec meal: 3.20 higher Dec soyoil: 16 higher Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 lower Prices open...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Pig Price Crosses Rmb 30/Kg Threshold Over the course of the holiday celebrations, China’s hog price jumped to an official all-time re...
Technical Views - Higher Across the Board
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 83.41c/bu while oilshare continues to correct downward trading to 32.58%. Dec/March corn firms to 10 1/2c to 11c, w...
AM Outlook - Still Looking Up
GOOD MORNING, Bean prices are leading the way higher this morning on headlines that China is offering to boost agricultural purchases in an effort to gain...
Market Commentary
Short covering was the CBOT’s theme of the day with nearly all ag markets closing higher. Slow crop maturity progress and the inability to conclude s...
Ethanol Increase: More Art than Science
EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out at 15 billion gallons; that is the latest word on the new biofuels package propo...
ASF Boosts Chinese Chicken
China is emphasizing larger, better capitalized hog production facilities that can deploy better disease management practices. Chinese farmers are taking p...
Trade Policy Pickle; Africa Unshackles Science
Trade Policy Pickle The Chinese lowered expectations for any outcome from this week’s bilateral negotiations with the U.S. by taking off the table Pr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9575/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that the delay in discharging vessels in Khomeini Port is related to very heavy port volume. As mu...
PM Post - Short-Covering Drives Rally
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 ½ lower Dec meal: 0.10 lower Dec soyoil: 22 lower Dec corn: steady Dec wheat: 1 ½ lower The markets started on...
Technical Views - Testing Lines of Support
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 81.81c/bu while oilshare corrects down to 33 percent. Nov/Jan bean spread trades out to 14 12c while Jan/March weak...
AM Outlook - Wheat Falls of its Own Weight
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly defensive this morning but still in recent trading ranges. Last week’s price movements is requiring position-ev...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher today with funds adding to their positions and covering corn shorts. The trade is positioning for the October WASDE, which, given th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market was very slow last week with China celebrating a week-long national holiday that closed the Dalian futures mark...
No "Great" Fixes; Grain OPEC
No “Great” Fixes The Trump Administration is seeking large changes at the WTO and in China but neither are likely to materialize. Chinese Vice...
Waiting for Boeing; Breaking Amber Caps; Impeachment Helps USMCA; Spending Bills Moving
Waiting for Boeing Despite early warnings that a counter-retaliation was in the works, the EU has decided not to strike back against the U.S. o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.87/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Gordeyev remarked on Saturday that the world’s leading grain exporters should consider forming an...
PM Post - Leveling Positions
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1/2 higher Dec soyoil: 10 higher Dec meal: 1.00 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 1/4 l...
Scientists Decry Science
A new study in the Annals of Internal Medicine concludes that there is no reason for adults to reduce current levels of unprocessed red meat and proce...
Technical Views - Good Day Ahead
SPREADS Dec crush trades down to 78.68c//bu while oilshare is 33.10 percent. Nov/Jan beans trade from 13 1/2c to 14c while Dec/March meal trades from...
AM Outlook - Higher to Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Major events that traders will focus on this week include: weather, US/China trade negotiations, and the October 10 USDA WASDE report to be r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8475/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were mixed today with the soy complex firming and corn falling to moving-average support. Wheat was mixed with HRW continuing to move lower an...
Misreading Airbus Tariffs; Perdue Fails Egg Farmers
Misreading Airbus Tariffs President Trump is about to impose tariffs on European goods using WTO-sanctioned authority in the Airbus case. Europeans are und...
Biofuels Relief Package: The Missing Details
As it turns out, the President’s “giant package” to make corn farmers “so happy” is encumbered by administrative procedures a...
PM Post - Reducing Exposure
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 higher Dec meal: .30 higher Dec soyoil: 12 higher Dec corn: 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 1 1/2 lower The...
World is Running Out of Wheat
A common remark about the wheat market is that we are awash in the stuff. After all, global ending stocks have climbed 43 percent over the past ten years...
Technical Views - Upside Movements
SPREADS Dec crush firms to 84.25c/bu while oilshare firms to 32.99 percent after testing 32 percent at the start of the week. Nearby corn spreads rem...
AM Outlook - Higher Still
GOOD MORNING, Tonight, we get the commitment-of-trader's report, which may show funds with some of the smallest positions held this year. With yester...
Livestock Roundup
Tariffs Come and Tariffs Go Now that the Section 232 tariffs on Mexican steel and Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork have been lif...
Market Commentary
Today’s futures market was expected to be lower but corn and wheat closed mostly higher while soybeans lost some ground. Monday’s USDA stocks r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8875/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: Dryness in Brazil, U.S. Soy Sales, China Soy Purchases, Argentine Protein
Soy Planting Substantially Delayed in Brazil A late beginning of the rainy season in Brazil continues to delay the planting of soybeans in Brazil. The firm...
Who’d Want the Ag Portfolio?
Janusz Wojciechowski is an agricultural policy veteran but he may now wonder why he sought to become the EU’s Agriculture Commissioner-designate. In...
PM Post - Mostly Choppy but Soyoil Firmer
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 1 lower Dec meal: .50 higher Dec soyoil: 1 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1 1/2 lower The markets put in a poor close to...
Report Fever
Often before the release of major USDA reports we have warned that traders should not allow themselves to become too complacent about their pre-report anal...
Technical Views - Soyoil Wants an Upside Breakout
SPREADS Dec crush improves to 80.63c/bu while oilshare is steady at 32.33% vs. 32% yesterday. Corn spreads firm with Dec/March into 11 3/4c from 12c and De...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 328,500 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...
AM Outlook - Weak But Stabilizing
GOOD MORNING, Funds were sellers yesterday, figuring the market has met some key upside objectives, but the markets are not giving back much this morning...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower with corn, soybeans, and all three wheats trading into the red. The day had the feeling of a broad “risk off” day wi...
Transatlantic Firing Squad; Nutty Navarro Math; Tart Milk
Transatlantic Firing Squad The WTO approved 71 percent of the amount the U.S. requested as retaliation for Europe’s subsidization of Airbus air...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.89/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy President Xi’s Fleeting Rural Dreams With China’s National Day Holiday celebrations in full swing this week, questions have risen as to...
Erroneous Data
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN produces a lot of data that could be useful, if it were accurate. The problems in the data have been...
PM Post - Resilience
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec soyoil: 18 higher Dec meal: 1.30 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec whea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices fluctuated insignificantly in ruble expression, except for corn prices which decl...
Technical Views - Slice and Dice
SPREADS Dec crush trades firmer to 79.59c/bu while oilshare trades to 32 percent, where it could see some support. Dec/March corn trades from 11 3/4c...
AM Outlook - All is Well
GOOD MORNING, The markets were given life and new direction courtesy of an unexpected bullish corn and bean stocks report this week. Fundamental jolt...
Utopian Agriculture Irony; Trouble in Major Markets
Utopian Agriculture Irony Debating the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be a major objective for the new politicians in Brussels and the...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets opened on a mixed tone following yesterday’s Grain Stocks report but most commodities finished higher. Soymeal and soybeans led the soy...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the curren...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Rationalizing the Corn Market
U.S. corn continues to be priced above the market and even now appears to be oversupplied. Domestic surplus corn stocks are 46 percent above what would be...
PM Post - Tighter Stocks
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 12 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec...
Technical Views - Calls Mixed; Watch Ranges
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 78.37c/bu, while oilshare corrects down to 32.57 percent. Corn spreads narrowed on the rally with Dec/March trading...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Lebanese millers have again protested strongly against the “official” rate of the U.S. dollar in the country...
AM Outlook - The Digestion Phase
GOOD MORNING, The Quarterly Grain Stocks report is in the rear-view mirror, but it set in motion higher trade as bears have to decipher what smaller than e...
Market Commentary
The September Grain Stocks report did not fail to be exciting. The report featured plenty of ammo for corn and soybean bulls while wheat received positive...
Tyson Plant Fire Sparks Populism
One thing which certainly has been sparked by the fire at the Tyson meatpacking plant in Kansas is the age old producer versus packer tensions among more p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.88/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.9575/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Last week was yet another that featured changing news of the U.S.-China trade war. Rumors of a possible 6 MMT quota for U.S. soybeans...
PM Post - Season Lows in Place
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 higher Dec meal; 2.70 higher Dec soyoil: 2 higher Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 1 1/2 lower Price...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News China is now Ukraine’s larges trading partner, notably expanding its agricultural product exports. Ukraine is the largest supplier of s...
Quick Hit - Reactions to USDA Reports
USDA QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT The reaction to the report was friendly for beans and corn, neutral for wheat. Buy-stops were triggered with price...
Price of Health
The FAO reported earlier this year that the Global Vegetable Oil price index is at its second lowest level in eleven years. The vegetable oil index has sun...
Technical Views - Evening Up
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 83.19/bu, which is 30c off the August highs. Oilshare trades down to 32.61 percent. Dec/March corn trades back into...
AM Outlook - Higher Across the Board
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board as we begin the trading week with the focus on USDA’s report at 11:00 CDST and crop progress tonight...
USDA Reports - Bullish Beans, Bearish Corn?
TRADE EXPECTATIONS AS RELEASED BY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL DJ September U.S. Wheat Production Estimates -- Survey The following are analysts' estimates for...
Impeachment’s Policy Implications; Prospects on Trade, Impeachment
Impeachment’s Policy Implications In September 2016, American University professor Allan Lichtman was one of just nine analysts to correctly predict...
Market Commentary
The excitement at the CBOT/CME today was in the livestock markets and wheat, with subdued action elsewhere. Buy grains/sell the soy complex was a major fea...
Hogs and Pigs Report Indicates Increased Slaughter Ahead
According to today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the total swine inventory on 1 September was 77.7 million head, 103 percent of last year and of the 1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Decline in Lawmaking
Yesterday’s discussion about impeachment raised the question about its impact on the ability of Congress to simultaneously accomplish other legislati...
PM Post - Mostly Lower Awaiting Quarterly Stocks
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: .50 lower Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 2 lower Dec wheat: 3 1/4 higher The markets opened as called, which w...
Technical Views - Some Tests, Some Sideways
SPREADS Dec crush falls to 82c/bu, one of the lowest levels noted for the year. Oilshare trends firmer trading to 32.98 percent. Spreads are st...
AM Outlook - Only Wheat in Green
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with wheat the only item in green after most of the markets started off on firmer footing. Minneapolis wh...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.725/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Impeachment Impacts; WPI and Impeachment; U.S. – India Negotiations
Impeachment Impacts President Trump has tried to characterize his House Democratic antagonists as ignoring the needs of the American people by instead focu...
Market Commentary
It was a relatively tempered day in the proverbial trading pits with things not going quite as expected. • While the export sales report this mo...
Rocky Times Ahead
The present Congress has not accomplished very much in the nine months it has been seated in no small part because its members have been spending so much t...
Livestock Roundup
Hogs and Pigs Preview USDA will release its quarterly hogs and pigs report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total swine inventory a...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Yield, Argentine Soy Crushers, Soy Export Sales, Indian Soy
The Case for an Average U.S. Soybean Yield Below USDA’s Forecast USDA’s most recent forecast for the average U.S. soybean yield in 2019 is 47.9...
PM Post - Predictable
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higher Dec meal: 1.20 higher Dec soyoil: 3 higher Dec corn: 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 7 1/2 hi...
Technical Views - Sell Corn, Buy Beans
SPREADS Dec oilshare trades to 87.59c/bu while oilshare trends down to 32.77 percent. Corn spreads widen today with Dec/March trading back out...
AM Outlook - Bullish But Minn Overbought
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board today with more positive vibes as regards trade negotiations. Funds are short and markets rema...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 283,200 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 1 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:&...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner tha...
Transatlantic Food Fight; Un-nice to Rice
Transatlantic Food Fight U.S. producers are gearing up for what they foresee as a tightening regulatory blockade of their products going to Europe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7725/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices fluctuated insignificantly in ruble expression, except for milling rye prices tha...
Ag Review - September 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the outlook for the 2019/20 U.S. crop mar...
PM Post - Minneapolis Wheat Up and Away
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.50 lower Dec soyoil: 17 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lowe...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises on Higher Demand, Increased Output Soymeal demand improved and output increased last week as hog producers worked feverish...
Russia’s Soybean Limits
There was much publicity several weeks ago about Russia being a beneficiary of the U.S. – China trade war due to stronger soybean sales. The two agre...
Technical Views - Sideways for Some
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 98.93c/bu while oilshare firms back to 32.97 percent. Dec/March corn trades into 10 3/4c from 11 1/4c while Dec 19/...
AM Outlook - Positioning Ahead of Reports
GOOD MORNING, Fund position leveling is now taking place into the June 30 Quarterly Grains Stocks report as they remain short everything except soyoil.&nbs...
Market Commentary
The markets started the day mixed with soybeans higher on rumors of Chinese purchases, corn and soyoil lower, and wheat futures moving higher. Minneapolis...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Impeachment’s Implications; Zimbabwe’s Crisis
Impeachment’s Implications U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) says that her Party now has “the facts” to initiate impeachment...
PM Post - Short Covering
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 3/4 higher Dec soyoil: 10 lower Dec meal: 2.20 higher Dec corn: 2 1/4 l...
Argentina Election Impacts
The general election will be held in Argentina next month (27 October) with the two leading candidates for president being the incumbent, Mauricio Macri, a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS As had been expected, Morocco is dropping its soft wheat import duty from 135 percent to 35 percent effective 1 October...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Dec/March corn spread trades firm into 11c from 11 1/4c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 trades from 30 1/4c to 31 1/2c. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from...
AM Outlook - Bullish Soy
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin mixed today with corn lower as ratings unexpectedly improved in yesterday’s crop progress report. Reports of bean bi...
Market Commentary
The markets found early, overnight strength after initial corn harvest results from parts of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa showed areas where yields were 40...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.83/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The market was slow in Brazil last week with some action at the beginning on the week when China secured 5-6 vessels for Oct...
1 + 1 = 3
This past Friday (20 September), we followed the interpretation of most by adding: 1) The cancellation of U.S. farm visits by Chinese officials, plus...
Global Beef Growth Slows
Dave Juday noted in his report this morning that USDA’s Cattle on Feed report showed a smaller number than for the same month a year ago, something t...
PM Post - Higher Where Short, Lower Where Not
THE OPEN Nov beans: 14 higher Dec meal: 4.20 higher Dec soyoil: 17 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 1...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The weather over Eastern Europe and the Black Sea continues to be warm but with favorable rains. Western Europe will remain dry, however, Ukr...
Technical Views - Not Bearish
SPREADS Dec crush falls to 85c/bu while oilshare corrects back towards 33 percent with a morning trade at 33.14 percent. Sep/Dec corn trades a...
AM Outlook - Higher on China Picture
GOOD MORNING, The markets begin higher across the board this morning on the news that cancellation of US farm visits did not correlate with the stoppage of...
Feedlot Inventory and Placements Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report Friday afternoon. For the first time in 33 months, the total inventory of cattle in feedlots of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary
Action at the CBOT was mixed with crop futures mostly lower overnight (with wheat the lone exception) and lackluster during the morning’s trading ses...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial draw...
No China ASF Visit; Where Not What; KORUS Environmental Consultations
No China ASF Visit Wall Street and Chicago headed lower after President Trump signaled that trade negotiations with China were not proceeding as hoped. He...
PM Post - Congested and Low Volume
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/2 lower Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 23 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 lower Dec wheat: steady Price...
Technical Views - Higher Markets Require Volume
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 87c/bu while oilshare falls to 33.40 percent. Bean spreads widen out to 13 1/2c from 12 3/4c for Nov/Jan while Jan/...
F&V Future
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, only one in 10 American adults meets the dietary guidelines for fruit and vegetable consumption. Meanwhi...
AM Outlook - Slow, Methodically Upwards
GOOD MORNING, Good export sales, better chart price action, and short-covering led to firmer markets yesterday. The price action has been a slow, met...
Cattle on Feed
USDA Reported U.S. Cattle on Feed on September 1, 2019 was down 1 percent from September 1, 2018 Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.88 mi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7275/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybea...
Hope for Trade War Deal
The messaging has been all to assuaging with White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow and the President himself saying things are going very well. Both eq...
The Wait and See Game
After their brief reaction to last week’s September WASDE, grain and soy futures markets seem to once again be mired in their old trading ranges. The...
Market Commentary
Today, there is something for everyone – both the bulls and the bears get fed. Generally, the market is weaker on weather and supply, but these...
PM Post - Money not Fundamentals Cause Movement
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 higher Dec meal: 1.00 higher Dec soyoil: 12 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 2 higher The...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 286,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 53 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Dec crush at 91.46c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.45 percent, correcting lower today. Dec/March corn narrows into 11c from 11 1/4c, and valu...
AM Outlook - Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue their sideways trading range as we get closer to the end of the month and the Sep 30 stocks report along with the October WAS...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower overnight in continuation of yesterday’s selling, but the market turned around during the day session. Wheat futures found...
Not Substantially All; Next NTB’s; FDI in Agriculture
Not Substantially All Trade experts this week noted that the U.S.– Japan trade agreement might violate the WTO’s Article XXIV requirement that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China at Lowest Total Since 2011 Through July, data from USDA’s Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) show a...
Grocery Stores are Winning
The consumer is often said to be the backbone of the U.S. economy, and that looks to be a positive factor for the food and agricultural sectors. The U.S. C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market Overview, 13-9 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices fluctuated insignificantly in ruble expression (except for corn prices tha...
PM Post - Can't Buy Stronger Markets
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 lower Dec meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil: 6 lower Dec corn: 2 1/4 lower Dec wheat:&nbs...
Technical Views - Wheat to Gain on Corn
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 91.98c/bu while oilshare is 33.44 percent. Corn spreads are firmer with Dec/March trading into 11 3/4c from values that w...
AM Outlook - Trying to Define Ranges
GOOD MORNING, The markets are trading back and forth attempting to define ranges into the October report. Funds maintain a net short position a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.68/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers...
Market Commentary
It was certainly Turnaround Tuesday at the CBOT with grains heading lower and cattle seemingly the only market to find support. Funds were active sellers a...
Precedent on Preemption; Airplane Way; Cost of “Meat”
Precedent on Preemption California already has stricter automobile emission standards and during the Obama Administration it received approval to impose ev...
Stop Gap Funding Moving Ahead without Block on Trade Aid
There are seven legislative days left before the fiscal year ends on 30 September, and on at least one of those days (23 September) the session is not sche...
PM post - Bend but do not Break
THE OPEN Nov beans: 8 lower Dec meal: 2.60 lower Dec soyoil: 9 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 4 lower The markets were hi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced that they will provide more wheat to Sudan – a total of 540,000 MT of whea...
Technical Views - Challenging Support Equals Weakness
SPREADS Dec crush trades at 90.81c/bu while oilshare hits a high of 33.60 percent. Spreads are slightly weaker with Dec/March corn trading into 12c f...
AM Outlook - Bearish
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board to begin the trading session. Crop conditions were slightly better than expected and weather remains...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building lat...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the...
POTUS State Owned Enterprises; U.S.- Brazil Lite
POTUS State Owned Enterprises A key complaint by the U.S. is that China competes unfairly as a non-market economy, the latest being an order from Beijing t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Last week was special as China suddenly allowed an unspecified volume of U.S. soybeans to be imported without their recent tariffs. The quot...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Last week initially saw hot temperatures across Southeast Europe before a slight cooling pattern set in. The early-week heat, combined with t...
PM Post - Soyoil Strong into the Close
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To cont...
China Opens to U.S. Pork
China’s announcement last week that it would not add punitive tariffs on imports of pork from the U.S. was largely a necessary self-restraint. With n...
Technical Views - Upside is Incomplete
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end TOMORROW, Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To cont...
AM Outlook - Sustained Rally Requires Funds Exiting Shorts
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end TOMORROW, Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To cont...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.835/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
Except for the hog market, the CBOT/CME was quiet for the first day of post-WASDE/post-Chinese purchases trading. Volumes were light as it looks like most...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exem...
Dems on Trade Policy; Top Dems and Trade Agreement Optimism
Dems on Trade Policy Donald Trump has upended trade policy like no other U.S. president. His approach is contrary to Republican orthodoxy and rhetorically...
Brazil Needs Moisture
The dryness in Brazil’s soybean production areas is worth watching because there is a history to the situation. There are not the La Niña cond...
PM Post - Chart Signals are not Usually Wrong
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 1.20 higher Dec soyoil: 7 higher Dec corn: 4 higher Dec wheat:&nbs...
Technical Views - Testing the Market
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
AM Outlook - Removing Shorts
GOOD MORNING, Seasonal lows are sometimes set after the September or October reports, and it's always about fund flows and market reaction to the data.&nbs...
Plenty of Grain and Oilseeds
The U.S. corn and soybean yields reported in today’s September WASDE were the first to use corn ear counts and weights plus soybean pod counts and we...
Livestock Roundup
USDA released is September WASDE today. Broiler production is expected to increase, based on higher slaughter and heavier weights. Beef, pork and turkey ar...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA soyoil estimates: The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA soymeal estimates: The soybean meal price is projected at $305 per short ton, up $5.00. ...
War Mitigation Funds Threatened; Big Oil vs. Big Ag; Bye WOTUS
War Mitigation Funds Threatened The Trump Administration has used up its $30 billion in CCC slush funds compensating farmers for the trade war and now Cong...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA soybean estimates: Soybean production is projected at 3.6 billion bushels, down 47 million on a lower yield forecast of 47.9 bushels per acre. With so...
Market Commentary
The much-anticipated USDA WASDE report contained a lot of red (see table below) but all the major agricultural commodity contracts nonetheless managed to e...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6725/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8375/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
WASDE Corn
USDA corn estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production in 2019/20, but slightly higher ending stocks because of lower corn used for ethanol. Corn...
Oilseed Highlights: China Buys U.S. Soybeans, Argentine Soymeal to China, Soy Export Sales, WASDE
Chinese Crushers Reportedly Buying U.S. Soybeans Trade sources indicated Chinese companies today purchased at least 600,000 MT of U.S. soybeans for shipmen...
WASDE Wheat
USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year...
PM Post - Heading Out with Good Prices
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
Technical Views - Export Sales Drive Higher Open
SPREADS Oct. crush trades up to 1.07c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 32.89 percent. Spreads are a bit firmer with Dec/March corn trading in...
AM Outlook - Sideways to Lower
GOOD MORNING, Report day today, to be released at 11:00 central time. Expectations include reduced corn and bean yields, reduced production, reduced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Cost of Food Surges Courtesy of a 46.7 percent rise in retail pork prices, China’s food inflation jumped by 10 percent in August on an...
China Big Picture
White House advisor Peter Navarro is discounting the optimism surrounding U.S. and China trade negotiations, arguing there are too many large issues at sta...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned lower this morning after China confirmed that it would not roll back tariffs on soybeans like it said it will for other products. That news...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market Overview, 2-6 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices followed the same pattern as one week before. Milling wheat export prices d...
PM Post - Bulls Need Reversal Confirmation
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To contin...
Technical Views - Forging New Trading Ranges
SPREADS Oct. crush is lower at 98c/bu while oilshare trends down to 32.56%. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades from 41 1/2c to 40 1/2c. Dec/March corn narrows into...
AM Outlook - Trade War Triggers Buying
GOOD MORNING, Quiet markets are subject to quick bounces and breaks. Yesterday, what was a quiet atmosphere suddenly turned higher as trade war news headli...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s 3 percent decrease in corn conditions ratings spooked corn bears and prompted a notable round of short-covering at the CBOT, both in the...
Aggressive New EU Leadership; USMCA Labor Solution; Indian Ally
Aggressive New EU Leadership Under John Claude Juncker, the EU seemed confused on how to deal with Donald Trump, never having previously experienced such a...
Appropriations, USMCA and More on Congressional To Do List
Congress is back in session after the August recess. The two major issues that will dominate the legislative calendar are the appropriations process and th...
PM Post - Not Insignificant
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/4 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 7 higher Dec corn: 5 1/4 higher Dec wheat:&n...
Quick Hit.....something interesting
USDA is scheduled to release its September WASDE report this Thursday at 11:00 Central time. Funds will enter this report net short across the board,...
ASF Worse Case Scenario
The FAO is scheduled to issue an African Swine Fever (ASF) update on Thursday, 12 September and it is now likely to include the Philippines in the growing...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The latest FAO report on Syria forecasts an increase in the 2019 wheat crop by more than 80 percent to...
Technical Views - Firm on Export Sales
SPREADS Crush remains firm with Oct. trading up to 1.07c/bu and oilshare correcting lower again to 32.70 percent. Dec wheat/corn moved above the Augu...
AM Outlook - Short-Covering
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher this morning after the release of crop progress reports showed corn conditions off 3 percent vs. expectations for un...
Market Commentary
The markets opened in-line with expectations and moved to early losses. Corn and soybeans remained under pressure from pre-WASDE positioning and good Midwe...
USMCA Push; Progressively Backwards
USMCA Push U.S. Congressional consideration of the USMCA agreement will get a heavy push from its supporters over the next few weeks. The earlier goal was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.5425/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.745/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Pork Export Rebound Just in Time
The pent-up global pork demand is finally starting to take effect, and it would appear just in time for U.S. producers. July pork exports from the U...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans There was significant movement last week in the soybean market with China actively buying beans for spot delivery as well as securing new crop sup...
Gauging September WASDE’s Accuracy
The trade will be watching this Thursday’s release of USDA’s September WASDE report and how it differs from the August estimates. With so much...
PM Post - Technically Driven
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to solidify itself as a rising supplier of agricultural products to China. News broke last week that China’s General A...
Technical Views - Sideways to Lower
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
AM Outlook - Look Out Below
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy&r...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower today with favorable weather across the Midwest aiding corn and soybean crops in maximizing this year’s potential yields. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.555/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.6375/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&...
Impetus for Amazon Fires
During the recent dry season, there was a 77 percent year-to-year increase in fires in Brazil, typically started for land clearing and eventual natural res...
PM Post - As Called
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/4 higher Dec meal: .80 higher Dec soyoil: 9 higher Dec corn: 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 4 1/2 lower The ma...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 312,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 53 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Technical Views - Sidewazzzz
SPREADS Nov crush trades down to 1.04c/bu while oilshare trades down to 32.75 percent. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades out to 40 1/4c from 39 3/4c. D...
AM Outlook - Bearish
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning. Trade talks had little impact on ag commodities yesterday, reserving all the higher momentum for the equ...
Trump’s Successes; Glyphosate Opposites
Trump’s Successes President Trump gets blamed for much, including for burning down the Amazon by one red-faced environmentalist. His approach can be...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, but they couldn’t hold today except for wheat. Wheat has spent the past two days digging out of the hole it fell into...
Oilseed Highlights: China and India Soybeans, Soy Export Prices, Brazil Soybeans, U.S Soy Crop
U.S. Ag Office Lowers Forecast for China’s Soybean Imports The USDA/FAS office in Beijing this week forecasted China’s soybean imports in 2018/...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.5875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.6625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - No Bottom Yet
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 1/2 higher Dec meal: .40 higher Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 higher Dec wheat: ...
Structural Changes
Our introduction to international grain trade came in the late 1950’s and 1960’s. At that time most U.S. grain exports were under U.S. aid prog...
Livestock Round Up
Hurricane Dorian and Pigs After hammering the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian is headed to the Carolinas, threatening the hog and broiler producers in its path...
Technical Views - Beans/Oil Sideways
SPREADS Oct. crush is higher today, trading up to 1.03c/bu while oilshare is lower at 32.81 percent. Corn spreads are firmer with Dec/March trading i...
AM Outlook - Possible Dec Corn Bear Trap
GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed this morning but mostly higher led by wheat. Wheat started its turn yesterday triggering buy-stops and reve...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.585/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.6075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
Corn fell to a new contract low amid fund selling and bear corn/wheat spreading. The soy complex managed to find modest support with higher closes in soybe...
Food Production and Marketing; Guessing Trumps War Direction
Food Production and Marketing Producing food without modern plant protection technologies is difficult and expensive. Just ask EU farmers trying to grow ra...
Meat Substitute Market
India is home to several market research companies and being in a predominantly Hindu country they should know something about alternative proteins in a ve...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat w...
PM Post - Choppy
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: 1.10 higher Dec soyoil: 12 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 August 2019 Domestic 3rd grade milling wheat prices in the European Part of Russia grew in ruble expression and decreased in d...
Technical Views - Firmer with Short Covering
SPREADS November crush falls to 87c/bu while oilshare trades to 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 13c to 13 1/3c while Dec 19/Dec 20 trades out...
AM Outlook - Firmer
GOOD MORNING, Pressure from weaker grain trade dominated price action yesterday. Good weather, adequate rainfall patterns, and most of all, seasonal...
War’s Worsening Prognosis
President Trump says his trade war on China is “having a devastating effect” on the Middle Kingdom and “they have to make a deal,”...
Breaking Down Farm Income for 2019
Farm income is projected to increase in 2019, which would be the third year in a row of growing farm income, but the reason for the most recent two years&r...
Market Commentary
Good weekend weather, lower FOB values for wheat world-wide, and fund selling pressured the CBOT today. Corn and wheat futures posted new contract lows wit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.61/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.535/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Ending Import Dependence
Many are asking the net long-term impacts of China’s near embargo on purchases of soybeans from the U.S. The historical picture is very clear. The U...
PM Post - Nailed it
THE OPEN November beans: 6 lower December meal: .20 lower December soyoil: 32 lower December corn: 3 3/4 lower December wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS After last week’s wheat tender Egypt’s GASC has booked 2.13 MMT of wheat this buying year – 935,000 MT...
Technical Views - Testing Lower
SPREADS October crush trades up to 1.01c/bu while oilshare is steady at 32.68 percent. Corn spreads are weaker with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading out to 35c...
AM Outlook - Lower
GOOD MORNING, It's a new month but the market is under pressure again as the weather remains mostly benign with the lack of any freeze event, and just enou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6975/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.625/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary
Reminder: the CBOT and CME markets will be closed Sunday night, 1 September and during the day on Monday, 2 September in observance of the U.S. Labor Day h...
U.S. Futures Exchanges Closed Monday, 2 September 2019
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 2 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration i...
US-PRC – What to Believe?; China/EU Burn Down the Amazon; Big Food’s Mojo
US-PRC - What to Believe? The negotiations are going great again. All is well. Be calm markets. Are the two sides, China and the U.S. on track together? Is...
PM Post - Fundamentals and Technicals Align
THE OPEN November beans: 4 higher December meal: .10 lower December soyoil: 2 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher December whe...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS October crush is lower trading back to 1.00c/bu while oilshare firms to 32.43 percent, bouncing off the 32 percent level. Sep/Dec corn trades...
AM Outlook - Liquidation
GOOD MORNING, It is the end of the month, first notice day, and part of a 3-day weekend, always good for contract liquidation. The COT report tonight...
Market Commentary
Following on Wednesday’s market, futures were mixed over night with beans and corn up but wheat continuing its downward trend. A mixed close was expe...
U.S.-Chinese Trade Dilemma
We are about to enter the 15th month of the tariff war between the U.S. and China, and to put it bluntly, a resolution seems further off today than it did...
Livestock Round Up
Stirring Through the Ashes after the Tyson Fire Tomorrow will mark three weeks since the major fire that shutdown the Tyson beef packing plant in Garden Ci...