GOOD MORNING, Prices remain in range-bound territory as most of the influential factors are out on the table. From this point forward it becomes sole...
Articles
Chinese View of Trade Deal; Democrats’ View of Trade Deal
Chinese View of Trade Deal The trade agreement between the U.S. and China is currently sight unseen by the general public but that has not kept pundits fro...
Livestock Round-Up
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle...
Market Commentary
Over the past several days, optimism over a U.S. – China trade agreement helped push commodities up into new trading ranges and funds are trying to s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Tax Rates; Soy Export Sales; Argentina Rainfall
Argentina Headed Down the Proven Wrong Path on Agriculture Again It has been said that the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over ag...
PM Post - No Retrenchment
THE OPEN March beans: 3 3/4 lower March meal: 2.30 lower March soyoil: 25 higher March corn: steady March wheat: 4 1/4 higher The m...
Technical Views - Mixed Again
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.07c/bu while oilshare trades to 35.71%. July/Dec corn trades to 1 1/2c carry from 1/4c, while March/May corn t...
AM Outlook - Exports Sales Good Except for Meal
GOOD MORNING, The markets have ratcheted trading ranges higher on the back of the US/China trade negotiations and the promise of more business. Bean...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 868,600 metric tons for 2019/2020--a marketing-year high--were up 73 percent from the previous week and 95 percent from the prior...
Change Ahead For Agriculture
The current political turbulence in Washington dominates the wire service headlines and the attention of op-ed writers. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Repres...
Clash of Titans
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer this week turned his sights on Europe where he declared, “We have a very unbalanced relationship…&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.87/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...
Pork S&D Fundamentals
A reader has pointed out that U.S. pork, a victim in the trade war with China, is priced lower than other suppliers, including less than half the value of...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight as traders took some profits off the table following recent gains. CBOT markets opened lower this morning with some modest pro...
China In-Country Analysis
Due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, the next weekly China In-Country Analysis will be 8 January 2020. Livestock Beijing Rolls Out 18-Point Plan to...
PM Post - Paying to Get Out, or Taking Profits
THE OPEN March beans: 5 1/4 lower March meal: 2.50 lower March soyoil: 50 lower March corn: 2 1/4 lower March wheat: 7 3/4 lower Th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, the next weekly Black Sea Regional Analysis will be 8 January 2020. Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 December 2019 D...
Technical Views - Top Stabilizer
SPREADS March crush trades lower to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades to 35.55%. March/May corn trades from 6 1/4c out to 6 3/4c, while July/Dec trades...
AM Outlook - Up Against Resistance Levels
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trend to new highs but are now at some key resistance levels, and as such, slightly lower to begin the day, typical for su...
Flighty Farm Proposal; Coercing Thailand
Flighty Farm Proposal U.S. Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) is getting attention in populist corners for his propos...
Market Commentary
The short covering continued today with early pressure at the CBOT wearing off in favor of higher closes. Funds aren’t especially fond of covering th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.9/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Ja...
U.S. Storing More Grain
The U.S.–China trade war has caused a lot of soybeans to stay at home rather than make the trek across the Pacific, but American surplus grain stocks...
Bills Introduced to Fund the Government
The FY 2020 spending package is complete. Yesterday, two appropriations bill were introduced in the House; combined, they contain all 12 regular appropriat...
Technical Views - Grains/Oilseeds Split
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.06c/bu while oilshare firms to 35.90%. Traders still buying soyoil against meal. Traders are still spreading ou...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Importers in the region of Argentina grains, oilseeds and derivatives should expect higher prices in co...
AM Outlook - Back to Grains/Oilseeds Split
GOOD MORNING, The markets rallied on Monday to their highest levels in months, with wheat prices in the lead and corn trying to follow. Beans and soy...
China Commodity Effects
There is still some skepticism as to whether China will buy all of the agricultural commodities that the Trump Administration is touting but if farmers hav...
Market Commentary
Traders got a better handle on the U.S.-China trade deal over the weekend and that put a bid under the CBOT on Sunday night’s open. The markets trade...
Last Laugh; Mediation over Arbitration
Last Laugh The actual language of the announced phase one agreement between the U.S. and China remains unknown but a reported commitment to boosting import...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.88/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The weather across Europe remains broadly favorable for winter crop development this next week, except for continued heavy rains across Weste...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Argentina’s new government took office last week and both Argentine bonds and equity prices have rebounded and the peso has firmed. The new...
RVO Countdown
Friday of this week could be EPA’s release date for the final rule on the 2020 required volume obligations (RVO). That rule would include the small r...
PM Post - Shorts Scrambling
THE OPEN March beans: 9 1/2 higher March meal: 2.50 higher March soyoil: 55 higher March corn: 6 1/2 higher March wheat: 8 1/2 high...
Technical Views - Building Support
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 35.43%. Jan/March beans trade from 14c to 14 1/2c, while Jan/March...
AM Outlook - Running of the Bulls
GOOD MORNING, The markets will open higher across the board and have been well bid all night on the back of a US/China trade deal, as well as news from Arg...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were sharply higher overnight after news of a pending U.S.-China trade deal. Soybeans posted an amazing 13½ cent overnight gain while c...
Turnaround 2020
The actual agricultural purchases to be made by China next year remains unclear with officials in Beijing failing to confirm President Trump’s boast...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.81/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Final Hours of Policy Flurry and Fury
Congress is hitting the home stretch and policy making is at a frenzied paced. Following is a recap and some thoughts on implications. At this point, there...
Getting to $50 Billion
The draft agreement between Washington and Beijing reportedly calls for China to purchase $50 billion worth of agricultural products from the U.S. in 2020...
PM Post - Potential Indigestion
THE OPEN March beans: 9 1/4 higher March meal: 2.50 higher March soyoil: 13 higher March corn; 2 1/2 higher March wheat: 2 1/...
Technical Views - Gentle Climb
SPREADS Bean futures are still mostly about volumes going to spread trade, with January open interest down 17,339 ctrs and March up 15,796 ctrs. Open...
AM Outlook - Riding High
GOOD MORNING, The adage is that low prices cure low prices. But now it's also enough to say that a few tweets and headlines along with some positive...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and the expectation was for more of the same when the sun rose but politics and fundamentals combined to give Chicago a shot...
Livestock Round Up
FDA on Feedlots? It looks like the cell cultured meat-inspired debate over how the FDA and the Food Inspection Safety Service (FSIS) should share jur...
U.S. – China Outlook
There were positive signals today that the U.S. and China will reach some form of a phase one agreement and that tariffs will be reduced instead of increas...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soybeans; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Little Time for U.S. Soy Sales
China’s Soybean Output Estimated at 18.1 MMT China’s Ministry of Agriculture and rural Affairs this week raised its forecast for that country&r...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7775/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - The Running of the Bulls
THE OPEN March beans: 3 1/2 lower March meal: .80 lower March soyoil: 15 higher March corn: 2 higher March wheat: 1 higher It...
A Few Odds and Ends
As we sink further into December, grain and soy futures markets continue their directionless up and down pattern within current trading ranges. Exciting th...
Technical Views - Oil is Your Friend
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.82%. March/May meal trades from $3.90 to $4.10, and begins on the narrower side.&n...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 502,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
AM Outlook - Testing the Margins
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trend sideways to lower with the short-covering rally ending in beans as bears take control and try to push values back un...
100 Years Trade War; Chemical Trade War
100 Years Trade War The trade war between the U.S. and China may or may not be getting a temporary reprieve late this week but the transatlantic war is abo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary
Post-December WASDE trade was mostly lower with trade activity rising well above the dismal volumes of yesterday. The markets opened as called with grains...
Meat Suppliers Gain
Basic demand analysis correlates income growth with population increases and provides producers and marketers with a good understanding of the likely consu...
PM Post - Lower Momentum
THE OPEN March beans: 1 lower Jan meal: 1.00 lower Jan soyoil: 14 lower March corn: 3/4 lower March wheat: 2 1/2 lower The ma...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics November Food Inflation Hits Highest Level Since May 2008 Food prices for this past November surged by 19.1 percent compared with November 2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 December 2019 Domestic Russian milling rye prices grew sharply. Milling and feed wheat prices also increased, but at a moderate...
Technical Views - Weakness at the Start
SPREADS March crush trades down to 98c/bu while oilshare is still firm at 34.53%. The January roll continues with Jan/March beans trading out t...
AM Outlook - Highs and Lows
GOOD MORNING, The December WASDE report has come and gone and traders are left watching weather and trade negotiations. Funds maintain a net short po...
SSA Commodity Opportunity
Europe has traditionally taken a stronger interest in its former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with China becoming aggressively involved in recent years...
Subsidies Beget Subsidies; Ag Power in Immigration
Subsidies Beget Subsidies One place where both Washington and Brussels are in agreement is on the distorting impacts of China’s centrally planned eco...
Market Commentary
The December WASDE is typically a non-event and today’s report was no different. Typically, there are few changes to be made to the U.S. balance shee...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.77/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Kazakhstan: The Next Cattle Ranching Frontier?
While most of the trade news today is focused on the USMCA, there’s another tidbit that shows the increasing influence of the east on the future of b...
PM POST: WASDE Highlights
THE OPEN March beans: 4 ½ higher Jan meal: 0.90 higher Jan soyoil: 3 lower March corn: ¾ higher March wheat: 1...
WASDE Soyoil
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Soyoil Estimates: The U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 31.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Soymeal Estimates: The U.S. soybean meal price forecast is reduced $15.00 to $310.00 per short ton. ...
WASDE Soybeans
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Soybean Estimates: Soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 are unchanged from last month. The U.S...
WASDE Corn
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Corn Estimates: No change to U.S. balance sheet. 2019/20 global exports are reduced 0.9 million tons as reductions fo...
WASDE Wheat
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Wheat estimates: U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million. Hard Red Winter and Durum exp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The FAO has announced a three-year program on the “Global Action for Fall Armyworm Control”...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS March crush is lower again today, trading down to 1.00 c/bu while oilshare is steady at 34.46%. March/May corn trades from 5 1/4c to 5 3/4c.&...
AM Outlook - Lots of Stuff
GOOD MORNING, It's report day, and traders are not expecting much new to be revealed. In the meantime, a poll of farmers being conducted now will tell the...
USMCA Deal; WTO AB Expiration; Finnish Outreach; Leftist Agriculture Minister
USMCA Deal Indications are that the needle has been threaded in terms of changes demanded to USMCA by Congressional Democrats and found acceptable by Mexic...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7575/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2275/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with soybeans moving higher on a combination of short covering, improving technical conditions, and rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soy...
Trade War Trade Impacts
The U.S.– China trade war has had a far more dramatic impact on American agriculture than it has had on farmers in the Middle Kingdom. In fiscal year...
2018 Farm Bill CRP Expansion Underway
USDA is starting today the sign-up for enrollment of land in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) under the 2018 farm bill. Sign-up will continue through...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The market was slow last week with the Brazilian market almost out of old crop supplies. There are only a few cargoes offered at very high prices,...
PM Post - Soy Dominates
THE OPEN March beans: 9 higher Dec meal: 2.20 higher Dec soyoil: 25 higher Dec corn: 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 3/4 lower Th...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The weather for Southeast Europe and the Black Sea remains broadly favorable for crop development. In Romania, there is an absence of signifi...
December 2019 WASDE Estimates
The December WASDE will be released tomorrow, December 10 at 11:00 Chicago time. This provides industry estimates on what to expect. Typi...
Technical News - The Day's Runs
SPREADS March crush a bit lower at 1.06c/bu, but still a good margin. Oilshare trades weaker down to 23.21%. March/May corn trades from 5 1/4c...
AM Outlook - Ranges and Values are Visible
GOOD MORNING, This week the focus of trade continues to be about weather in South America and US/Chinese trade issues. Different headlines, both bull...
Impeachment Progressing, Slowing Other Action
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) directed Congressional Committee chairmen yesterday to begin drafting articles of impeachment against President T...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a higher note after overnight news of Chinese removal of some tariffs on U.S. ag products. Soyoil jumped to sharp gains early, which hel...
¡Aguas! USMCA; All I Want for Christmas
¡Aguas! USMCA The Mexicans are becoming frustrated with the varying demands from Washington for changes to the USMCA before Congressional Democrats w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.245/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Ja...
PM Post - Old Shorts and New Longs
THE OPEN Jan beans: 7 1/2 higher Jan meal: 1.10 higher Jan soyoil: 30 higher March corn: 2 1/2 higher March wheat: 1 1/2 higher The marke...
Bullish Friday
Jim Budzynski argues in CropLife magazine that “Agriculture is in Worse Shape than You Think.” He cites several dynamics such as trade wars, de...
Technical Views - Risk On
SPREADS March crush trades top 1.08c/bu while oilshare moves into steady territory from lower at 33.70%. Bean spreads are still wide with Jan/M...
AM Outlook - Looking for Cover
GOOD MORNING, The rising soy complex on Thursday was led by meal, which rebounded on technical consideration and news that Argentina's largest meal exporte...
Market Commentary
It was a mixed day with most of the volume and bullishness occurring in the soy complex as grains counted their losses. It didn’t help that export sa...
Livestock Round Up
Considering China Situation Impact Hog producers are awaiting a breakthrough in prices while packers’ margins remain high. The promise of incre...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close...
Unrealistic FTA; Rural Broadband
Unrealistic FTA Swiss Ambassador to the U.S. Jacques Pitteloud encouraged a Washington audience this week to pursue a bilateral free trade agreement with h...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales Down; Future of Soy Moratorium
U.S. Soybean Export Sales Down Sharply Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated exporters were far less successful selling U.S. soybeans...
PM Post - Soy the Star
THE OPEN Jan beans: 4 3/4 higher Jan meal: 1.50 higher Jan soyoil: 21 higher March corn: 3/4 lower March wheat: 1/4 higher Th...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 228,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:...
Technical Views - Some Testing, Some Rallies
SPREADS March crush firms to 1.06c/bu while oilshare trades back over 34.0% to 34.11%. Dec/March continues to widen trading back out to 9 3/4c...
AM Outlook - Mixed
GOOD MORNING, Corn prices were mixed yesterday but all other markets put in better trade, each for different reasons. Corn struggled as new deliverie...
Possible Bullish Scenarios
It has been easy to be bearish on grain and soybean prices so far during the 2019/2020 crop cycle. In fact, it has been easy to be bearish during the last...
Digital Retaliation; Principio de Precaución
Digital Retaliation The creative crafting of a tax specifically designed to punish foreign-based companies such as France’s new digital tax is a pote...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.275/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with continued soy complex short covering that led to buy soybeans/sell corn/wheat spread trades. News that a U.S.-China trade deal could b...
Oilseed Competition
Olive oil remains the higher priced among the major vegetable oils. In fact, while the relative traded values of oils from rapeseed, palm and soybeans tend...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-29 November 2019 Russian grain prices fluctuated but didn’t change significantly. Wheat prices in Siberia decreased moderat...
PM Post - Sideways but Vulnerable
THE OPEN Jan beans: 6 1/4 higher Jan meal; .80 higher Jan soyoil: 15 higher March corn: 1 higher March wheat: 3 1/4 higher The mark...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Down 2 Percent, White Feather Broiler Rises By 11 Percent After peaking at RMB 40.28/kg ($5.73/kg) or RMB 18.27/lb. ($2.60/lb.) at...
Technical Views - Calls Versus Overall Trends
SPREADS March crush firmed to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is steady at 33.86%. Jan/March beans trades from 14 1/2c to 14 3/4. March/May meal trades...
AM Outlook - Upward Calls
GOOD MORNING, Prices performed well yesterday considering the negative comments for trade negotiations, as Trump states that talks with China may extend we...
Global Trade Debacle; Missing Component
Global Trade Debacle The global trading environment has returned this week to a negative trend where policies are likely to get worse long before they get...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with funds unwinding spreads, sending corn higher versus wheat while the soy complex was steady. Mid-day trade featured a defensive tone af...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2525/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&n...
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in re...
PM Post - Searching for the Bottom
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 3/4 higher Jan meal: 1.00 higher Jan soyoil: 3 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 3 higher Prices...
Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance
The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously,...
Technical Views - Testing Bottoms
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare moves to 33.85%. March/May beans trades into contract lows of 15 1/2c, which is 66% of fu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. Acco...
AM Outlook - Its Complicated
GOOD MORNING, The major trends are shifting a bit, as traders continue to buy grains/sell soy, the opposite of the trend over the last several months. ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8225/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
EU Collision Course; WTO Developments
EU Collision Course EU environmental policy is on a collision course with agriculture and European farmers have begun to respond. Last week they held large...
Market Commentary
The CBOT featured early firming in the grains complex with nothing but lower prices for the soy complex. Early buy corn/sell soybeans spread trade set the...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil...
Smart Buyers
The San Francisco Chronicle makes note that Italy greatly boosted its durum wheat imports from North America following a 10 percent reduction in Europe&rsq...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Taxes Despite the fact Argentina’s new government hasn’t made an official declaration, there are rumors flying about the new export taxes that...
PM Post - And the Beating Goes On
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 higher Jan meal: .70 higher Jan soyoil; 8 higher March corn: 1 higher March wheat: 1 higher Grain...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Russia’s Agricultural Ministry last week outlined a strategy to increase the country’s agricultural exports to $45 billion by 203...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS March crush trades to 99c/bu while oilshare firms back over 34% to 34.15% on meal's slide against a sideways soyoil trade. Jan/March beans tr...
AM Outlook - New Month, New Money
GOOD MORNING, It's the start of a new month with new money flows. The commitment-of-trader's report will be released today due to the holiday. ...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 612,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 60 percent from the prior 4-week average.&...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.4175/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Post-Thanksgiving Day trade at the CBOT/CME featured the expected light volume but some unexpected fund buying in grains. The first notice day for December...
Drought Doesn't Discriminate
Drought Doesn’t Discriminate Despite the frequent battle with drought faced by its farmers, South Africa has rejected adoption of a drought-tolerant...
Hemp: Racing to the Bottom
Rarely has a new commodity provided such interest and optimism as hemp, but as the regulatory framework slowly catches up to the market’s hopefulness...
COMMON THREAD: Slow Dancing With China
Yesterday, 28 November, was Thanksgiving Day in the U.S., a holiday tradition that dates back to the arrival in the New World of a group of settlers seekin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished the overnight session on a high note with corn, soybeans, and wheat all in positive territory. Oversold conditions and short covering sup...
USMCA Reckoning; Make My Brown Eyes Green; Not Such Free Traders
USMCA Reckoning USTR Robert Lighthizer and his Canadian and Mexican counterparts are meeting today to discuss the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Lighthizer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices grew slightly, and corn prices also started growing after a long period of decreas...
Duty Free Pork Impact
U.S. pork producers are asking for zero duty access into the Chinese market, saying it would reduce the trade deficit by 6 percent. Without doubt, U.S. por...
PM Post - Sideways Leads to Lower
Note: There will be no Technical Perspectives report tomorrow and Friday, 28-29 November. The next edition will be on Monday, 2 December. THE OPEN Jan bean...
China In-Country Analysis
Finance China’s Ag Development Bank Working to Keep Farms Afloat Last week Dims Sums Blogspot reported on a series of announcements and articles rela...
Technical Views - Firmer Day Against a Lower Trend
SPREADS March crush margins still remain good at 1.00c/bu, while oilshare begins to firm off its corrective phase at 33.86%. Dec/March corn trades ba...
Happy Thanksgiving
There will be no Ag Perspectives or Technical Perspectives reports on Thursday (28 November) in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States...
AM Outlook - Time for Recovery Today
GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this morning on oversold conditions and short-covering heading into the Thanksgiving closure on Thursday. The deliver...
Ag Review - November 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the next farm bill, the future...
Market Commentary
Trading in Chicago was largely a one-sided affair today with cattle futures being the only market to sustain any significant closes. The aggressive fund se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.675/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
China Realism; Irrepressible on S&DT; Interventions/December Outlook
China Realism The markets are justifiably tuning out all the headlines over U.S. – China trade negotiations. Craig Allen, President of the U.S. China...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Associa...
Scale and Sustainability
Sustainability has become an important attribute for agricultural systems with many activists falsely asserting that extensive farming has a smaller enviro...
PM Post - Fundamentals Prevail
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 1/2 lower Jan soyoil: 19 lower Jan meal: .70 lower March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 3 1/2 lower The mar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un has received a Euro 6 million loan jointly from the Industrial Bank of T...
Technical Views - Transparent
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.55%. Jan/March beans remains weak trading out to 14 1/2c from 14 1/4c.&...
AM Outlook - Looking Lower
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade on a mixed note, with bean prices mostly responding to good growing weather in Brazil and Argentina, which assures 2...
WIC to SNAP Lessons; Cheese Mountains; Spillover Subsidies
WIC to SNAP Lessons According to data published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report, obesit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. J...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher based on short position liquidation and some short-covering in corn and wheat. As the day wore on, however, the soy complex turned l...
Commodity Investing
Goldman Sachs forecasts that its commodity index will earn 6 percent over the coming 12-month period. That may be a welcome prediction, or one brushed off...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics There were no major announcements last week regarding policies or national economics and forex rates and stock indices were steady. The inco...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission’s latest crop update highlights the divergent but consistently challenging conditions faced by European farmers this...
PM Post - Housecleaning
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 1/4 higher Jan meal: .90 higher Jan soyoil: 39 lower March corn: 1 1/2 higher March wheat: 5 3/4 higher The m...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report Friday. The 1 November inventory of all cattle and calves on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more...
Technical Views - Testing Both Sides of Even
SPREADS March crush trades to 99c/bu while oilshare trades below 34% to 33.86%. Dec/March corn moves into 9 1/2c from 10c, while Dec/March whea...
AM Outlook - Firmer with a Twist
GOOD MORNING, Prices are starting the session on a firmer note led by wheat. The trade continues to monitor the pace of South American bean and corn...
Awkwardness on Hong Kong; Gottlieb’s Successor
Awkwardness on Hong Kong President Trump says he will sign or veto legislation (the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act) approved near unanimously by...
Cold Storage Report Features More Pork, Poultry
The latest Cold Storage report from USDA (which features commodity stocks as of 31 October 2019) shows growing supplies of pork and chicken and a modest ti...
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this a...
Cattle on Feed
• USDA Estimates: U.S. Cattle on Feed were up 1 percent on November 1, 2019. • Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.48 million h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nb...
BSE versus ASF
Reports out of China indicate that the ASF situation may be stabilizing. Stocks of breeding sows rose 0.6 percent last month, the first increase in 19 mont...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthco...
PM Post - Expirations and Rolls
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1/4 lower Jan meal: .40 lower Jan soyoil: 25 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 2 higher The markets...
Technical Views - Lows Begetting New Lows
SPREADS Crush margins continue to firm with March trading to 1.02c/bu. Oilshare trades back up to 34.0%. Jan/March beans trade to ctr lows at 1...
AM Outlook - Caution About Oilshare
GOOD MORNING, Funds continue to make adjustments into the end of the month and into the Thanksgiving holiday. Volumes are going to probably dwindle f...
U.S. – China Chasm; USMCA Falters; Health versus Sustainability
U.S.-China Chasm The signals out of Beijing and Washington are confusing on the surface but that is only because of how deep the fissures are when it comes...
Market Commentary
Solid export sales, especially for pork, and higher basis in South America is bullish for U.S. futures. So should be the fact that 17 percent of the corn c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.09/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of c...
PM Post - Position-evening for Profit
THE OPEN Jan beans: up 3 3/4 Dec meal: up 1.50 Dec soyoil: down 18 Dec corn: up 1 1/4 Dec wheat; up 3 1/2 Prices opened as called with ma...
Oilseed Highlights: Egypt's Soybean Production, DDGS Exports to Australia and New Zealand
Egypt Wants to Double Soybean Production The government of Egypt has announced its plan to more than double its production of soybeans to reduce its depend...
Technical Views - Its about Spreads
SPREADS Major trends include higher oilshare and crush, and heavy volumes in Dec spreads. Yesterday, the Dec/March corn spread accounted for about 70...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 437,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 83 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. C...
AM Outlook - Technical Defense
GOOD MORNING, Price action remains extremely technical and on the defensive over disappointing ideas that the trade war may extend into 2020. The US...
A Faint Light from Golden Rice
As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disap...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6675/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened as called in today’s Technical Perspectives with the soy complex moving higher and corn and wheat lower. The trend changed by mid-day...
Alignments Against Phase One; Coal Fired Electric Cars; Market Openings
Alignments Against Phase One The markets reacted today to negative news about the state of the U.S. – China trade war. Craig Allen, President of U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) grew slightly. Corn prices fluctuated insignificantly. Milling wh...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Trump Administration Again Threatens Tariffs, Phase One Deal Stalls The optimistic prospects for an end to the tit-for-tat trade war that commenced...
PM Post - Technical Day Turns Negative
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .10 higher Dec soyoil: 28 higher Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 1/4 lower The market ope...
Current Market Offers High Returns to Cattle Feeding
Feeder cattle prices have room for additional price gains, based on cattle feeding margins. WPI’s research suggests that feedlots placing cattle on f...
Technical Views - Good Market Direction Day
SPREADS Jan crush trades up to 1.01c/bu while oilshare firms to 34% on soyoil strength. Dec/March corn trades out to 11c from 10 1/2c, and from...
AM Outlook - Oversold
GOOD MORNING, Prices rallied yesterday on oversold technicals, and a bit of a shift in the fundamental outlook as US corn is finally becoming more competit...
Market Commentary
The CBOT and U.S. equity markets switched roles today with ag commodities generally finding solid gains while stocks retreated from recent highs. Market ch...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.12/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. J...
GMO versus GHG; State versus Commercial
GMO versus GHG Vietnam has delayed its decision to ban glyphosate into 2021 but Thailand has maintained its ban, which is adversely impacting U.S. commodit...
Milk and Meat Alternatives and the Constitution
For the past two-and-a-half years, there has been a heated policy debate about plant-based dairy alternatives such as soymilk and yogurt and meat alternati...
PM Post: Weather, Currencies, Politics
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 1/2 higher Dec meal: .70 higher Dec soyoil: 33 higher Dec corn: 1 1/4 higher Dec wheat: steady Prices t...
Trouble Targeting
USDA has targeted select foreign markets for increased attention this year, including sending trade missions to solicit sales. The success to date has been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS It looks to be good news for grain importers as most experts in the ocean freight business are expectin...
Technical Views - Challenging the Edges
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 98c/bu while oilshare firms again to 33.79%. Dec/March volumes increase as we approach first notice day at the end...
AM Outlook - Need to Cover for Any Trade Developments
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin on a firmer note this morning but not very far away from yesterday's lows. The trend continues to be lower for grain...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT was dominated by selling in corn and soybeans, with some support in the wheat complex, though much of that was likely the result of cor...
Food Inflation Importance; U.S. Funding Deadline; New Approach to PRC
Food Inflation Importance Researchers from Boston College, UC-Berkley and the University of Chicago found (see NBER Working Paper No. 26237) that consumers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat At the start of the wheat campaign, everything was set for a bumper crop. Good prices, good soil moisture, and high investment in inputs (fertilizer,...
China’s Dinner Demographics
China’s food security concerns and import needs will shift in the years ahead regardless of the outcome of the trade war with the U.S. Demograp...
PM Post - Lower but Chicago Wheat is Interesting
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.40 lower Dec soyoil: 9 higher Dec corn: steady Dec wheat: 3 1/4 lower The markets...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt’s GASC purchased 465,000 MT of wheat last week, marking their biggest procurement effort of the marketing year. Ukraine provided...
Technical Views - Weaker Start
SPREADS Jan crush trades at 99c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.16%. Dec/March corn trades out to 9 3/4c from 9 1/4c while Dec 19/Dec 20 tr...
AM Outlook - Seasonal Volume Decline
GOOD MORNING, As we edge closer to Thanksgiving, volumes are declining. The features for last week continued overnight with a further break to new lo...
SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy
SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that n...
Market Commentary
Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was no...
Appropriations Moving, Everything Else in Impeachment Limbo
The respective chairs of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, Representative Nita Lowey (D-New York) and Senator Richard Shelby (R-Alabama) have...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
Chicken for China
Per Dave Juday’s recent Livestock Roundup report, China has ample opportunity to replace its lost pork production with imports of pork or chicken mea...
PM Post - And the Beat Goes on
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 2.10 higher Dec soyoil: 5 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1 3/4 lower Prices opened as expected wit...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 238,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Technical Views - Testing from Above and Below
SPREADS Jan crush trades lower at 94c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.41%. Dec/March corn trades out to 9 1/4c from 8 3/4c while Dec 19/Dec...
AM Outlook - Challenging Bottoms
GOOD MORNING, In terms of political news, all remains quiet on trade negotiations but after the close yesterday, House Speaker Pelosi said the US was on tr...
Game of Chicken; Hard and Fast Numbers; Glyphosate Addiction
Game of Chicken U.S. officials were celebrating China’s announcement that after half a dozen years of bogus excuses for keeping out American poultry,...
Livestock Round Up
China Opens to Chicken On 31 October, we reported that its was expected that broilers would be included in any U.S. China trade deal, and although that dea...
Market Commentary
After a week of rolling, November contracts expired today and liquidation begins in the December contract. Otherwise, the market remains caught in sideways...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7575/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: Increased Brazilian Soymeal Exports, U.S. Domestic Soymeal Demand
U.S. Soymeal Exports to Face More Competition from Brazil The U.S. has faced aggressive competition in exporting soymeal from Brazil and Argentina for at l...
PM Post - Path of Least Resistance
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 lower Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 1 1/4 lower The markets opened...
Technical Views - Direction is Weak
SPREADS Jan crush trades up to 96.65c/bu while oilshare works down to 33.45%. Dec/March corn spread remains firm at 8 1/2c from 8 3/4c, while D...
AM Outlook - Spreads Still Dominate
GOOD MORNING, Prices are steady grains and lower soy. Spread trade continues to dominate in terms of price action. Traders continue to unwind p...
Markets Looking for Direction
The November WASDE has come and gone, and it produced precious little excitement for grain and soy futures markets. NASS/USDA lowered the estimated nationa...
Expanded Trade War Tools; Olive Dynamics
Expanded Trade War Tools The Trump Administration expanded its areas of attack on the WTO, bringing in questions about procedures and allocation of resourc...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.09/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Sorghum’s Row
Sorghum was once the darling crop to grow because it was cheaper to produce than corn and environmentally friendly since it required less water. U.S. farme...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation for October Spikes to 15.5 Percent With retail pork prices rising in October by a staggering 101.3 percent, China’s foo...
PM Post - Sinking Volatility; Lower Price Action
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 lower Dec soyoil: 31 lower Dec meal: .50 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 3 3/4 lower The market...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) continued to grow but the rate of growth slowed. Corn prices slight...
Technical Views - Two-sided Trade
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 95c/bu while oilshare continues to adjust lower trading down to 33.78%. Feature of the morning are spreads, which are wea...
AM Outlook - Shorts the Focus
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed overnight but continue to find liquidation in the soy complex led by soyoil, while wheat is giving up most of its short-cove...
China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s
China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washingto...
Cold Weather, But Natural Gas at Near Record Inventories
Last week we reported on the backlog of propane deliveries across the Corn Belt and noted that farmers who have the capability to use natural gas have a re...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were largely firmer today with grains leading the way higher. Wheat futures posted double-digit gains as severe cold will cover the winter whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7775/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...
Alternative Crops
U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Br...
PM Post - Feels Oversold
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 lower Dec meal: .40 higher Dec soyoil: 22 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1/4 higher The markets opened as called bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS: As had been rumored in recent weeks, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan have now signed an official “me...
Technical Views - Lots of Spreads
SPREADS Jan crush continues to firm, trading up to 96.24c/bu as oilshare corrects again today, trading down to 34.13%. Volumes in corn continue...
AM Outlook - More Liquidation
GOOD MORNING, The soy complex continues to liquidate length on the back of a November WASDE that offered little to be bullish about, with the pattern of lo...
Market Commentary
First things first, happy Veteran’s Day! All of us here at WPI extend a heartfelt “Thank you” to all who have served, and are currently s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&n...
Brazil Disses G20; Narrow Trade Benefits
Brazil Disses G20 Some developing countries came out last week for more generous WTO terms, including expanded special and differential treatment and other...
Where to Find Meat
The ASF outbreak has brought much attention to the world’s tenuous supply of animal protein. China is the largest producer of pork in the world but p...
Will Technology Complicate the Next Farm Bill?
In a recent interview with Politico, House Agriculture Committee chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota) confirmed that he hasn’t decided whether he w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The market was quiet last week with Chinese buyers generally uninterested in securing soybeans, despite good crush margins in China, especially fo...
PM Post - Weakness
THE OPEN Jan beans: 6 1/2 lower Dec meal: 3.30 lower Dec soyoil: 20 higher Dec corn: 2 2/3 lower Dec wheat: 3 1/2 lower The markets opene...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Most of Southeast Europe has received beneficial rainfall in the past week, helping alleviate some concerns for winter crops. Still, those th...
Technical Views - Trend is Persistent
SPREADS Jan crush firms to 95c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.46% (heading to 35%?). Nov/Jan bean spread trades back out to 12 1/2c from 11...
AM Outlook - Post-Report Follow Through
GOOD MORNING, The November USDA report has come and gone, and it provided much less market volatility that in previous WASDA reports. &...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Estimates: The soybean oil price is forecast at $0.31 per pound, up $0.01 from last month on sharply higher reported prices through October. The forei...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Estimates: The soybean meal price forecast is also unchanged at $325.00 per short ton. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.11 billi...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Estimates: Soybean production is forecast at 3.55 billion bushels, down less than 1 million on fractionally lower yields and unchanged harvested area...
WASDE Corn
USDA Estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bush...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates: U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million...
Market Commentary
The markets opened mostly lower (except soyoil) with modest short-position building and long liquidation ahead of the WASDE. The biggest news item of the m...
USMCA Down, Now Up; Buy the Rumor – How’s That Working Out?; WTO Showdown
USMCA Down, Now Up U.S. House Democrats are sounding more positive about their ability to pass USMCA, though it is unclear whether it will be this year or...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
More Money, More Problems
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that his agency was “authorized” to make the second round of 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payme...
Competitive Global Corn Pricing
Perhaps exceeding the market’s expectations, USDA reduced the forecast for U.S. corn yield by 1.4 bushels/acre, resulting in a reduction in productio...
PM Post - Now Get Back to Your Trading Ranges
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: .60 lower Dec soyoil: 6 higher Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 2 1/2 lower Prices op...
Technical Views - Oil Yah
SPREADS Nov/Jan beans narrows into new highs of 9 1/2c with Cargill stopping all bean receipts delivered. Jan/March beans firm into 12 1/4c from 12 1...
AM Outlook - Bet is Against Corn
GOOD MORNING, Major trends continue, namely buying beans/selling corn, and buying soyoil/selling meal. The new crop bean to corn ratio traded to new...
Market Commentary
The market opened pretty much as expected, though soyoil took a bigger initial drop than called. Markets continue to be see-sawed by the daily headlines of...
Livestock Round Up
China’s Changing Pork Import Mix Two key reports about China’s impact on global pork demand came out this week. The first was Rabo Bank’s...
Trump Effect; China to Create Farmland
Trump Effect Deborah Elms, Executive Director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, writes in the Nikkei that President Trump’s demand that more co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Brazil Soy Moratorium
Excellent Week for U.S. Soybean Export Sales The week ending 31 October proved to be an excellent one for exporters of U.S. soybeans. Soymeal export sales...
PM Post - Dicey Ahead of WASDE
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 2.10 higher Dec soyoil: 21 lower Dec corn: steady Dec wheat: 1 1/4 higher...
Recap: Pre-WASDE Expectations
Once more, here are the advertised expectations for tomorrow's November WASDE. Some expectations include lower yield and production estimates,...
A Mixed Bag for Markets
As grain and soy futures markets tiptoe into November, the bag of potential price moving factors they face seems unusually full. There are the common (for...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 360,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  ...
Technical Views - Testing Both Sides
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 85c/bu while oilshare sits still well supported at 34.40%. Dec/March corn trades slightly weaker today from highs o...
AM Outlook - Some Bounce, Some Slide
GOOD MORNING, The adverse reaction to the headline that the trade negotiations could be pushed back to December played out with heavy selling pressure yest...
PRC Pattern Against U.S.; Nationalization’s Limitations
PRC Pattern Against U.S. A final trade agreement between the U.S. and China remains elusive, with Beijing now insisting on more extensive tariff eliminatio...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Wheat Over-Supported
Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog and White Broiler Prices Retreat After weeks of climbing like a rocket, the national average live pig price dipped last week to RMB 39.8...
PM Post - Ready to Grind Lower
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 lower Dec meal: 1.00 lower Dec soyoil: 16 higher Dec corn: 2 higher Dec wheat: 3 higher Prices opened as called wit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) were still growing despite the global downward tre...
Technical Views - Still Bullish Soyoil
SPREADS Corn spreads are firming with Dec/March narrowing back into 8 1/2c as the official roll for Dec contracts begins tomorrow. Dec 19/Dec 2...
AM Outlook - Wheat Bulls
GOOD MORNING, Funds were net sellers across the board yesterday except in wheat, where they were covering in short positions in front of Friday's report.&n...
More CAP Bashing; USMCA Political Dealing; Trade War’s Cost
More CAP Bashing A reported 2,500 scientists have written the European Parliament advising reform of the Common Agricultural Policy to address biodiversity...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT today, posting 5-cent gains in SRW and HRW contracts. You know it’s a slow week when a 5-cent gain is the most interes...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Scale’s Advantage
President Trump is accused of not knowing the facts and not even caring that he doesn’t know them. The same could be said of his political opponents...
Propane Bottleneck in Corn Belt
Back on 22 July, we wrote … this year’s corn crop will likely have a very high moisture content. There hasn’t been a need for dryi...
PM Post - Back Focused on Fundamentals
THE OPEN Jan beans: steady Dec meal: .30 lower Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 1 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1/4 higher The markets opened as expected and fo...
Traders' Expectation for 8 November WASDE
Here is a quick recap of what traders are expecting to see on Friday's report, to be released at 11:00 Central time: DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Prod...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Wheat buyers in the MENA region will have to get used to higher prices for Russian wheat as farmers are...
Technical Views - More Trade Guesses
SPREADS Jan crush trades up to 90c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 34.33%. Dec/March corn trades back out to 10 1/4c from 9 3/4c while Dec 19...
AM Outlook - Disparate Forecasts = Price Risk
GOOD MORNING, Major trends continue to be to buy soy/sell grains. The new crop 2020 bean/corn ratio now stands at 2.41%, with the tendency for...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly driven by pre-WASDE positioning, expectations for harvest progress in the U.S., and the Export Inspections data. The weekly export data...
CAP: Reaping What it Sows
New York Times reporters investigated the operation of the Common Agricultural Policy and reported today that it is used for “corruption and self-dea...
Nothing but Politics Ahead
As of today, there are 365 days until the 2020 elections. That will cast a big shadow on all Congressional activity from here on out. For the Presidential...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8325/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0975/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil’s market was active last week, especially for spot positions as China was paying 91F FOB or 192F CNF for December shipment. At the sa...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The weather across Europe and the Black Sea remains widely variable with dramatically different implications for summer crop harvest and wint...
Election Year Commodity Prices
According to Jeffrey Hirsch at the Stock Trader’s Almanac, there is a Presidential Election Cycle Theory that says stocks will move in certain ways a...
PM Post - Opened as Called
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 1/2 higher Dec meal: .10 higher Dec soyoil: 42 higher Dec corn: 3 lower Dec wheat: 4 lower Prices...
Technical Views - Up, Down and Contract Rolls
SPREADS Jan crush trades at 83.46c/bu while oilshare trades to new highs at 34.0%. A good harvest pace over the weekend finds spreads a touch weaker,...
AM Outlook - Short Corn, Long Soyoil
GOOD MORNING, This week is likely to feature more positioning in front of the November 8 WASDE report, to be released at 11:00 central time. Fu...
Grain and Oilseed Crush Drop
USDA issued its 1 November report on grains and soybeans crushed during the month of September and, no surprise, the numbers were lower. Grain crushed for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.16/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were mixed to end the week with wheat and soybeans finding strength while corn quietly traded sideways. The ongoing harvest that now faces bet...
Unnecessary Protectionism; Solving the Wrong Problem; GSP Leverage
Unnecessary Protectionism The pro-trade group, Hinrich Foundation, correctly calculates that the relative commercial strengths of the U.S. and Brazil make...
Latest Economic Data’s Relevance to Farm Economy Outlook
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, for the third time in a row. The new target for the federal funds rate is now 1...
PM Post - Well Bid
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 3/4 lower...
Technical Views - Watch for the Little Things
SPREADS Dec crush slightly weaker moving down to 89.98c/bu while oilshare moves down to 33.47%. Jan/March beans firm to 12 1/2c after the bean receip...
AM Outlook - Congestive Trade
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue in trading range territory today, congesting between recent highs and lows. Heading out the door today it appears that...
Market Commentary
There is no U.S. – China trade agreement until there is one, and yet the mood in the market is blamed on gyrating messages about the negotiations. Wh...
USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts
USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the...
Livestock Round Up
Chinese Chicken Demand News this past weekend that broilers would be part of the so-called Phase One trade deal with China has had more impact on sto...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0875/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: Paraguay Soybeans, China Soy Stocks, EU Rapeseed, Soy Export Sales
Soybeans in Paraguay Suffering from Dry Weather Paraguay is the third-largest soybean producing nation in South America. It produced about 8.85 MMT of soyb...
PM Post - Path of Least Resistance
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 lower Dec meal: .10 higher Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 3 lower Dec wheat: 4 1/4 lower Prices opened...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 493,800 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 88 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...
Technical Views - Mostly Lower
SPREADS Dec crush firms to 89.40c/bu while oilshare drops to 33.72%. Dec/March corn spread continues to firm, narrowing into 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, and...
Pausing to Reflect
It is not that grain and soy futures markets are on vacation exactly, but in recent days it almost feels that way. One could easily read a book while watch...
AM Outlook - Buffeted by News
GOOD MORNING, This continues to be a busy news week from the cancellation of the November APEC summit in Chile, to comments from Mnuchin that China may hav...
Market Commentary
In his book The Black Swan, author Nassim Taleb makes the argument that increasing globalization in many ways makes our economic and political systems more...
U.S. – China Should Agree on Fake
In addition to losing a place for a planned signing after Chile canceled hosting next month’s APEC meeting, the U.S. – China Phase One trade ag...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9075/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&n...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’...
PM Post - Corn Spread Strength
THE OPEN Jan beans: steady Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 23 higher Dec corn: 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 3 lower The market opened as expecte...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 October 2019 Domestic Russian grain (excluding corn) prices kept growing at a higher rate than the previous week. Specifically...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Hog and Live Chicken Prices Jump By 13 and 16 Percent When the month of October concludes tomorrow, it will long be remembered in China as...
Technical Views - Steady to Higher
SPREADS First notice day for November contracts is tomorrow, with the NOv/Jan trading out to 15 3/4c in the pm session. Jan/March beans...
AM Outlook - Buffeted by Headlines
GOOD MORNING, Prices in the soy complex continued to be buffeted about by daily headlines of off, and on again negotiations. The demand from Trump th...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.115/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly dominated by trading ranges today with pre-WASDE positioning beginning in earnest. Funds continued selling into the corn market, and li...
Peronists and Ag Exports
Argentina’s productive agriculture sector rooted for Mauricio Macri in this past weekend’s presidential election. They vividly recall the Kirch...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret W...
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports; Labor Blocks USMCA
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports Agriculture is the first sector receiving retaliation in trade disputes and there is no end in sight for trade wars. T...
PM Post - Mixed with Defensive Tones
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/4 lower Dec meal: .80 lower Dec soyoil: 1 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with f...
17 Days Left for USMCA and BTC; Shorter Time for Appropriations
There are only 18 days scheduled on the legislative calendar before Congress recesses for Christmas. There is a lot to do, which Congress will have to bala...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Depending on which news source you choose to believe, Iran could import 3 - 6 MMT of wheat in 2019/20...
Technical Views - Cover Wheat Shorts on Breaks
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 87.40c/bu while oilshare trades at 33.64%. Dec/March corn moves narrows into 10c from 10 3/4c. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades...
AM Outlook - Trading Ranges Will Dominate
Good morning, Trading ranges continue to dominate the market as we draw closer to the 8 November WASDE report, in which traders expect to see another cut t...
Market Commentary
Perhaps the biggest news of the weekend was the results of Argentina’s Presidential elections. The leftist ticket of Alberto Fernandez won the Presid...
Argentine Election Impacts; Technological Sovereignty; Your Survey Answer; Food Trends
Argentina Election Impacts Argentines went to the voting booths for a general election yesterday (27 October) that was deemed fateful for agriculture. As t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.84/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...