Economic Chemistry Power The major powers (Europe, Russia, U.S. and China) have long used their dominant economic influence to coerce other nations into co...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close...
A Look at MFP Payments Through the WTO and the Federal Budget
On 24 July 2018, USDA Secretary Perdue announced a $12 billion trade mitigation package that would be administered in three parts: Food Purchases and Distr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS According to the EU’s latest Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) report, drought conditions...
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost; Varied GMO Approaches
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost Junnosuke Kobara at Nikkei provides analysis showing that while Japanese farmers may be few in number, they have outsized influenc...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was firm after the Sunday night weather forecast called for warm/dry Midwest conditions, prompting the market to add a weather premium. C...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecast...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Chinese demand remains very slow as reductions in Dalian soymeal futures exceeded those of CME futures, leaving gross crushing mar...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Ethanol Facing Structural Changes in Liquid Fuel Market
The old saying “can’t see the forest for the trees” may be apt for the ethanol outlook for the next few years. Indeed, there’s been...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News WPI sources indicate EU and Black Sea exporters are becoming concerned about the lack of export business booked for the 2019/20 crop year. Wi...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the...
EPA Announces 2020 Biofuel Volumes
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler signed the agency’s proposed 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) today, w...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 276,500 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. Corn: Net sales of 175,600 MT for 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. No...
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions; Deference to Israel
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions China’s position is that if a bilateral trade agreement is reached with the U.S., both sides must remove the punit...
The Big Picture: Global Cash Prices
Recent market analysis has placed much focus on fundamental conditions in the U.S. and how supply-side factors may shape the markets this year. Given the e...
Scavenger Fish; African Progress; Glass Half-full
Scavenger Fish To help offset the adverse impacts of the trade war, the Trump Administration has set up a program to purchase surplus commodities off the m...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw markets firm after yesterday’s higher close in corn. Commercial pricing was heavy yesterday in the corn market and the overnigh...
China In-Country Analysis
TRUMP-XI G20 MEETING ONLY BRINGS A PAUSE TO THE HOT RHETORIC Despite President Trump’s overly optimistic and glowing reviews about the current pause...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4125/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.14/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Hog Market’s Bearish Outlook
The world’s largest pork market, China, may be experiencing a more than 50 percent decline in production and yet U.S. hog prices are softening. Part...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market Overview: 24-28 June 2019 During the week in review, grain domestic prices were still a cocktail of 2018 and 2019 prices while e...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw prices mostly lower as wheat futures came under pressure from the advancing HRW harvest. Trading volume was moderate overnight as fun...
Another Stab at CFTC Reauthorization
Congress will soon be considering the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) re-authorization act; the most recent actual legislative authorization wa...
Technology Uptake Policy; Trade War Fallout
Technology Uptake Policy Climate change is making its mark in the U.S. Midwest this season with excess moisture and in other parts of the globe whether its...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0325/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Feeder Cattle Receipts Plummet, Market Finding a Bottom?
Falling feeder cattle prices, good pasture conditions, and tightening feedlot margins are working to reduce the number of feeder cattle entering feedlots...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt is talking to France about 35 million Euros for the funding of small and medium agriculture organ...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading started higher with a dead cat bounce from Friday’s USDA-report-induced losses. The market eventually turned lower, however, and co...
Ethanol Margins Low, Politics High
USDA released its Grain Crushing and Co-Production report today; total ethanol use of corn in May was 460 million bushels, which stands at 104 percent of A...
Fake War News; Another Fund
Fake War News The U.S. and China announced a resumption of bilateral trade negotiations, supposedly calming markets even though nothing has changed about t...
MERCOSUR Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Demand was slow last week with Chinese buyers waiting for the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 Summit. Given th...
Clues to Holiday Schedule Trading
Some sayings about the futures market (or equities) ring true and others not so much. For example, “this time it’s different” is a risky...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.1175/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat prices are lower to start the week with French and German prices under pressure as Egypt recently passed on French wheat offer...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much mo...
No Ag Trade Details in Debates; A Beef with Free Trade
No Ag Trade Details in Debates Democratic primary candidates for the U.S. presidency debated this week, and little was said about trade and nothing about a...
Taking Stock of the Political Risks Facing Agriculture
Markets, industries and companies are constantly exposed to political risk (i.e., the impact that changes in policies and regulations can have on profitabi...
Final Corn and Soy Area is Likely Less
USDA reportedly shocked the market by failing to cut U.S. planted corn acres by the amount expected and instead nipping more area out of soybeans. The agen...
Ag Review - June 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the surprising volatility of June 2019's...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a r...
Eastern Europe’s Good Deal; Firms Prepare for Long War; Slick Cooking the Books
Eastern Europe’s Good Deal The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published the results from analyzing the quality of 1,400 foods acros...
Hogs and Pigs Report
According to today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the total inventory on 1 June was 75.5 million head, 104 percent of last year and 101 percent of the...
Oilseed Highlights: Less Canola/Rapeseed; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Paraguay and VATs; U.S. Soy Plantings
Lower Production Forecasts for Canola in Canada and Rapeseed in Europe Two reports released yesterday indicate both Canada and the EU-28 are likely to prod...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.4675/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 612,000 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. Corn: Net sales of 294,900 MT for 2...
China Long Game; Wasted Effort
China Long Game Reports indicate that following the U.S.–China trade negotiations this weekend, President Trump will likely delay imposing tariffs on...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 c...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4325/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 June 2019 Domestic prices quoted in the South, Volga Valley and Black Soil were mainly for 2019 production, which is why they...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Meat Imports Surge in May as Domestic Shortfall Increases Monthly data from China’s Customs Bureau shows that total meat and offal imports...
Inflation, Monetary Policy and Ag Trade
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made some noteworthy changes to its economic outlook at last week’s meeting, revisin...
Organic Worries; Lessons for Xi-Trump Meeting
Organic Worries The organic food market is growing fast, especially in France, and projected to reach $100 billion globally, according to Ecocert. This has...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Wheat versus Corn Pricing Dynamics
Global wheat production is forecast to rise 6.7 percent in 2019/20, which is causing prices to fall 1.9 percent. Meanwhile, world corn production is predic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt reports that the government has purchased 3.66 MMT of local wheat. The total is expected to incre...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended shor...
Democrats on Trump Trade; Eagle versus Panda; Dems Back Trump
Democrats on Trump Trade The first Democratic presidential primary debate occurs this Wednesday, and candidates will be pressed for details on their variou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The market was quiet last week on slow Chinese demand. Dalian soymeal futures fell 2 percent last week with tweet-based news...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Southeast Europe wheat prices were mixed today with Bulgarian prices declining and FOB offers from Romania, France, and Germany rising slight...
Biodiesel Tax Credit and RFS Volumes with Some Surprises
The House Ways and Means Committee completed action on a tax extender package last Thursday night. It includes a three-year extension of the $1/gallon tax...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today after the market closed. The total inventory on feed in 1,000+ capacity feedlots was 11.7 milli...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday&rsqu...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent - This is the highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. However, light weight placements were down signific...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&n...
USMCA Epiphany; Rotten Tomatoes; Commodities Not a Worry
USMCA Epiphany Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit to Washington this week revealed an epiphany by President Trump and hope on the Hill. I...
Pork Production Disconnected from Corn
The tighter global corn supply, a result of flooding and delayed planting in the U.S., is occurring simultaneously with China’s increased demand for...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more modera...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview; Pork Packer Margins; Appropriations Update
Cattle on Feed Preview Tomorrow USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. The industry’s pre-report estimates peg the total number of catt...
Trade Blame Game; Funding the War; Attack on Productivity
Trade Blame Game Deborah Elms of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre told a Washington audience this week that the U.S. flouting international trade rul...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Margins; China and DDGS; Chinese Crush Volume
U.S. Soybean Export Sales More Than Double Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 13 June indicated the volume of U.S. soybea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.265/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Ju...
Rising Menu Prices Slow Restaurant Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released last week, shows growth in restaurant and grocery store sales is slowing. The...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 187,600 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. The primary destinations were Algeria (59,900 M...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the avera...
USMCA Codification; Mitigating the Mitigation; Expanding the Conflict
USMCA Codification What seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago now looks like a growing possibility – U.S. congressional passage of the USMCA. USTR Rob...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines abou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2225/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have conti...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the...
Legs of War; No Cigar
Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and...
Shifting Baseline Leaves Real Crop Progress Still Unknown
USDA issued the crop progress report yesterday, but interpreting any meaning from it is almost impossible under current conditions because the baseline of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are man...
Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?
There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 Jun...
Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri
Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s mil...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for n...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.5475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Southeast Europe and Black Sea wheat markets are mostly steady to start the week despite rising prices in France, Germany and the U.S. The Bl...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and o...
Appropriations Amendments Tie USDA’s Hands and Scrutinize Administration on Trade
The House ag appropriations bill includes many restrictions on USDA’s use of appropriated funding, and there are 70 amendments that provide more stip...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.53/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering...
Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook
Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Poli...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef
At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houst...
Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models
Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales for the 2019/2020 marketing year, which began June 1, totaled 47,600 MT metric tons, resulting increases for Japan (112,100 MT, incl...
Oilseed Highlights: PNW Soybeans; Damage to U.S. Soy Industry; U.S. Soy Export Sales
High Mississippi Barge Rates Make PNW Soy Shipments a Bargain Normally, cash prices for soybeans are about $0.50/bushel ($18.40/MT) higher at export elevat...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. J...
Uncertainty Reigns
Despite the plethora of new data sources such as crop tours, field surveys, satellite imagery and the numerous forecasts they support, there is still great...
End of GMO Panic; Contrasts and Irony
End of GMO Panic When genetically modified wheat was curiously found in an Oregon field in 2013, some importers cancelled their shipments, others stepped u...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2625/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 June 2019 Prices on the domestic market continued to either decrease moderately or remain stable in RUB expression. Export price...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up as Crushing Activity Increases With feed demand continuing to show solid improvement through the first full week of June, soy...
Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy; Contrasting Approaches to Moving
Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy The persistent question is, when will American agriculture stop supporting Trump trade policy given its deleterious impacts...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks. The 2019/20 season-average price for...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor change...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. J...
SOEs Rule
The U.S. grain trade business has been largely dominated by privately-owned companies for the past several decades. Their efficiency at the business is dem...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Reported: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Beginning sto...
WASDE Corn
USDA Reported: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are dow...
Between Prevented Plantings and MFP: How Much More Corn?
All corn acres in the U.S. are past the deadline for full crop insurance coverage, meaning that farmers can either elect to take prevented planting pa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the post-Ramadan Eid al Fitr period of religious holidays in the Middle East an...
Ethanol Margins Squeezed Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Ethanol production ended May at a pace of 1.044 million barrels per day (bpd), which was the lowest level in a month after the buildup for the summer drivi...
More Tariff Threats but Progress; Subsidizing Fake News; Ethanol Supply Destruction
More Tariff Threats but Progress Fresh off his claim of successfully coercing Mexico via tariff threats into greater responsibility for the immigration mes...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat add...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The market was quiet last week as the Chinese were not actively buying and instead waited for basis to fall after rising for the past sever...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.075/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week as the hot, dry weather over parts of Russia did not scare it. Weather maps are showing ample soil...
USDA’s June WASDE Might Be Suspect
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply and demand) estimates tomorrow (Tuesday). The market is searching for answers about how greatly corn and soybean p...
More Tariffs Please; Food Tribalism and Consumer Contradictions
More Tariffs Please The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its analysis that concluded the Trump tariffs on China have had very little adverse impa...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.045/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...
Mixed Signals on the Economy, Trade and Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve has released it Beige Book summary of economic conditions around the country. Prominent was the plight of the ag economy, specifically...
And Now We Wait
There is little doubt now that the U.S. corn crop will be just a shadow of what was expected six weeks ago. The remaining question is just how much below U...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock Shedding Pounds?; Pork Plant Line Speed Rule Blocked
Livestock Shedding Pounds? Hog producers have been caught in a whipsaw of low hog prices due to tariffs, a dramatic rally (given the African swine fever si...
Planes, Trains and Automobiles; Death by Duties; Life with Meat
Planes, Trains and Automobiles Part of the focus on China pertains to the extent that the government controls the means of commerce. It is pervasive to be...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for sprin...
Export Sales
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period May 24-30, 2019. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 26,000 metric tons for delivery in the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.1/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. ...
Water Unveils Weakness
The U.S. National Weather Service says that the nation has just experienced the wettest 12 months in the 124 years of the agency’s recordkeeping. Las...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases; Prevented Planting; U.S. Soy Export Sales
China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases Apparently Headed for National Reserve Reports out of China indicate Sinograin and COFCO intend to import the remainde...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of...
Protectionism Progresses; Misinformation Ceases; Wrong Tool
Protectionism Progresses U.S. trading partners (and many Americans) hoping to wait out the presidency of Donald Trump for someone more conciliatory in the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market again either mostly declined moderately or remained stable in RUB expression, but the d...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.9075/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises as Feed Prices Trend Upward Strong downstream demand for soymeal continued last week. Meanwhile, soybean crushers have gra...
Assistance Payments as Unpredictable as the Weather
After an approximate five-month delay, Congress has approved a $19 billion disaster bill that would cover in addition to other relief efforts, certain agri...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importanc...
Future of Trump Trade Policy; Iced Coffee
Future of Trump Trade Policy The U.S. has lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers than most other countries. The theory of Trump trade policy has...
The Bullish Case for Beef
Live cattle futures dropped like a rock through early June but may have overshot the fair value of the underlying commodity. This spring, large fed cattle...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2525/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Aswan area is said to have the country’s first outbreak of fall armyworms, and the...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initial...
Scaled-Back RIN Reforms and Conflicting EPA Outlook on E15 Impact
As expected, last Friday the EPA published its final rule to allow year-round E15 sales. That rule included a much scaled-down proposal regarding the tradi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is on fire as it has followed the U.S. futures market rally. Meanwhile, the weather in southern Russia is far from perfe...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
- It’s been such a long time since grain and oilseed markets have made limit moves higher or lower that a review of those limits might be warranted...
Suicidal Tariffs; Not Beyond Meat
Suicidal Tariffs President Trump irrationally announced that he would impose 5 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico in less than two weeks and take them to...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president a...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 153,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 63 percent from the prior 4-week ave...
Down the Road: A Look at June’s Market Factors
With May and its ag commodity rally in the rearview mirror, it seems an appropriate time to look at what factors are likely to influence the markets in Jun...
USDA and Congress Introduce More Uncertainty to Planting Decisions
When USDA announced the 2109 version of its Market Facilitation Program (MFP) last week, which is intended to mitigate the impact of ongoing trade tensions...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.03/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Production; Trade Breakthrough
Record Meat Production Red meat production hit a record high for April at 4.522 billion pounds, split almost evenly between beef at 2.262 billion pounds an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday&...
Not US, MCA; Pride over Sustenance; Everyone's Politician
Not US, MCA Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tabled the USMCA agreement in Parliament, and Mexican President André Manuel López Obr...
Don’t Sell in May
Equity traders have an adage about the tendency for stocks to enter a lull during the summer. “Sell in May and go away” has been a staple for y...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soy Imports; U.S. Soy Price Advantage; U.S. Soy Plantings
China to Continue Importing U.S. Soybeans but Unlikely to Purchase More Bloomberg reported today that sources in China indicate state-owned enterprises COF...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.3625/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, up $0.24 from yesterday's close. ...
Ag Review - May 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soy complex and biofuels sectors, and an assessment of certain gl...
Swiss Miss; Political Ground Shift; Please Make It Stop
Swiss Miss Switzerland has reportedly moved higher on the list of countries potentially negotiating a free trade agreement with the U.S. Swiss Confederatio...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing stat...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.905/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market followed the trend of the previous week, either decreasing moderately or remaining stab...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Slightly as Feed Demand Holds Steady China’s soymeal market appears to have found a bottom at the start of May. Feed...
Global Politics Weighs on Trade
Pundits are debating the impacts of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impressive reelection as well as the mood of his Bharatiya Janata Party. Th...
Market Commentary
Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. ...
Key EPA Biofuel Regulatory Decision Timeline
The EPA’s proposed rule on year-round E15 use is presently at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The administration has promised to have it i...
Corn and Wheat Spreads Turning Bullish
The fundamentals are changing for corn and wheat. While agricultural commodities have been stuck in a bear market for years now, the late U.S. planting has...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Reports from Syria indicate that thousands of acres of wheat have been destroyed by fire, attributed to...
Cattle on Feed at Record Level for April
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today after the market close, and it showed inventory below market expectations, a bullish factor. Ho...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of...
Trouble Before the War; Counterintuitive Uncertainty Benefits
Trouble Before the War Ohio State University Professor Ian Sheldon laments that even if the U.S. and China reach a trade agreement, it will take many years...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration...
Could There Be a Black Swan Event Underway?
This week Dr. Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois Extension Service has been running commentary on Twitter regarding the delays in getting the U.S. c...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soy...
Livestock Roundup: Trade Relief Protein Purchases; China Pork Imports; Pending Cattle on Feed Report
Trade Relief Protein Purchases As expected, USDA announced the second trade mitigation program today. It is a $16 billion package with $1.4 billion earmark...
Congress Complicit in War; Cart Before Horse; S&D=P
Congress Complicit in War The word to the wise is to watch what others do and not what they say, and that is especially true when it comes to politicians...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; USDA Aid Program and Soybeans; Brazilian Farmer Defaults
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights USDA’s export sales report for the week ending 16 May showed sales of U.S. soybeans were up from the previous week,...
Missing Details, but Who Cares?
USDA announced today a new farm aid package to help offset “unjustified retaliatory tariffs” from the trade disputes with China, the EU, and Tu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.8975/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 48,400 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 58 percent from the previous week and 74 percen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market either dropped or remained stable in RUB expression but increased for some crops in USD...
Double-Edged Assistance; Walk and Chew Gum; European Turnover
Double-Edged Assistance The trade mitigation package being floated by the Trump administration is again generous to soybeans but stingy toward corn. In the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7275/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, a...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Recovers Ground on Improved Feed Demand With feed demand from poultry and aquaculture continuing to expand on the backs of China...
Analog’s Future; The Clash and Impacts
Analog’s Future In contrast to Uber, investors have given Beyond Meat a meteoric climb. The question is, how real is the meat analog market? Like IT...
A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session&rsq...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Purchases; Southeast Asia’s Concerns; South American Soy Updates
China Deciding What to Do with Unshipped U.S. Soybean Purchases Now that trade negotiations with the U.S. have broken down, the Chinese government is appar...
EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset
The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of...
USMCA to the Fore; Diluted Restitution
USMCA to the Fore The Trump administration’s lifting of tariffs on aluminum and steel from Canada and Mexico has moved consideration of the USMCA agr...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. 2019 planting season is grim, and there is little or no relief in sight based on the latest weather forecasts. The Corn Belt and northern Plains w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The U.S. trade war has been leading the soybean market for several months, but the latest developments (for the worse) have certai...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.89/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7825/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week in sympathy with the CBOT and Matif futures. Russia has exported about 33.8 MMT thus far in the cur...
Key Issues Teed Up in Congress, but No Easy Path Forward
As USDA works on the details of a $15-20 billion relief package for agriculture, intended to mitigate the impact of China’s retaliation on the Trump...
China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling
China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his object...
Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?
There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.8325/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.65/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Fish or Cut Bait
The extremely slow pace of corn planting in the U.S. was previously discussed in the 13 May analysis (click here). The eastern Corn Belt is especially affe...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund...
Paying War Reparations
A major power conceding in a war usually takes many years and horrific losses. The undeclared war by the U.S. against North Vietnam lasted 20 years and too...
Meat Production Outlook
In the May WASDE (released last week), USDA projected growth in feed use of corn based on supplies and prices, but it also increased animal units. While tr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.79/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.67/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. J...
Want More Sales? Try Owning a Restaurant
The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released Tuesday, suggests that owning a restaurant is likely to be a sales-boosting en...
Oilseed Highlights: Correction on Argentine Soymeal to the U.S.; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Correction: Argentine Soymeal Not Headed to U.S. On Tuesday it was indicated that a ship lineup provided by the NABSA shipping agency in Argentina included...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 114,500 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 52 percent from the prior 4...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more signific...
Disagree on the Disagreement; Stop Progress; Diverging Opinions; Dead Trees
Disagree on the Disagreement From the U.S. perspective, its goals for a trade agreement with China have been clear all along, and it was Beijing that backt...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.695/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.4875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues to Drop The nationwide estimated soymeal inventory tumbled further following the five-day Labor Day holiday celebratio...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows...
FT Lies; Captive Suppliers
FT Lies Writing for the Financial Times, Rana Foroohar says that big companies have been society’s main economic beneficiaries and notes that Democra...
Deconstructing the U.S.-China Trade War
News from inside the trade negotiations with China has generally been positive for about six months. Starting late last year (19 December 2018), the 1 Janu...
Market Changes Ahead?
U.S. trade policy has been a constant companion for grain and soy markets virtually every day since President Trump was inaugurated in January 2017. One of...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soymeal Headed to U.S.; Tough Times for U.S. Soybean Sector
Argentine Soymeal Headed to U.S. Despite expectations that the U.S. will have a record volume of soybeans at the end of August, the NBSA shipping agency in...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Update MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that wheat crops in some areas are up 30 percent. Production is expected to total...
2020 Proposed RFS Volumes Up Slightly
Last week the EPA sent its proposed rule on 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to the Office of Management and...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while...
Understanding Agribusiness and Advancing Policy; Incubator Policy
Understanding Agribusiness and Advancing Policy Farmers are understandably anxious over low prices and now the excess moisture that has spring planting off...
Corn Planting Progress
It seems that the only potentially bullish market factor today is the slow pace of corn planting in the U.S. The possibility of significant delays tha...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.37/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the deba...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week due to the absence of export demand for old crop as well as the bearish outlook of last Fri...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Notes: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is forecast at 124.2 million tons, down 9.6 million from 2018/19, mainly on lower soybean production...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Notes: The U.S. soybean crush for 2019/20 is projected at 2,115 million bushels, up from the 2018/19 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance p...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.5175/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close...
USDA Report Bearish Corn, Wheat and Soybeans
Today’s USDA supply and demand estimates increased old crop ending stocks of U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans. No adjustments were made to the 2019 corn...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Notes: The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19. The s...
Fuel Aid Better than Food Aid; Fake or Fad, Trumped
Fuel Aid Better than Food Aid President Trump says that larger federal receipts from the higher tariffs on goods imported from China will be used to purcha...
Will Tariffs on Chinese Goods Lead to a $15 Billion Commodity Purchase?
President Trump started tweeting between 4 and 5 a.m. this morning about the China trade negotiations, shortly after tariff rates on $200 billion of import...
WASDE Corn
USDA Notes: Total U.S. corn use in 2019/20 is forecast to rise relative to a year ago as greater domestic use offsets a slight decline in exports.&nbs...
Market Commentary
One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We...
Trade Matters; State Legislation on CAFOs
Trade Matters Ag markets are on pins and needles as they wait to see if a trade deal can be salvaged from the U.S.-China negotiations now taking place in W...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.5325/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.295/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Real Trade War; Interstate Trade War
Real Trade War Tariffs applied by both the U.S. and China are staged to rise substantially tomorrow unless there is a last-minute agreement between each co...
What Are the Fundamentals?
USDA will release its May 2019 WASDE tomorrow (10 May) at noon (EDT). While it will update U.S. and world supply/demand estimates for the current crop year...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Duties and Export Taxes; Palm Oil Products Removed; Canadian Canola
Higher Argentine Statistics Duty Squeezes Soy Crushers The government of Argentina has issued a decree that raises the statistics duty on imports from 0.5...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 90,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 26 percent from the previous week and 68 percen...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some m...
Alternatives to Leverage; Fighting Big Ag; Scuttle the Next Dem
Alternatives to Leverage Reaction to President Trump’s use of tariffs to leverage needed changes in Chinese behavior is notable for the two pol...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April-3 May 2019 There were only two working days during the week in review, but prices mostly followed a downward trend during t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.39/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&n...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Presidents Xi and Trump Continue High Stakes Game of Chicken Over the weekend, President Trump used Twitter, his favorite communication...
Market Commentary
For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other rel...
Weaker Alone
The market is wagering that the U.S.-China trade war is escalated this Friday, and it may be right. China has pushed back against threats by President Trum...
Assets, Trade and Agriculture
An article of interest in Monday’s Wall Street Journal cited the ongoing survey conducted byDeutsche Bank AG that tracks the value and total return p...
Ethanol Overview
The U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) today released the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which maintains its estimate of ethanol use in 20...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soy Crush Consolidation; ABIOVE Soy Forecasts
China to Consolidate State-Owned Soy Crushing Firms Bloomberg reported today that the Chinese government plans to force two state-owned agricultural firms...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria will pay about $359/MT for the wheat it purchases from farmers, up nearly $20/MT versus last year...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10...
Pivotal May 10th; Socialist Agriculture; Cost of Diversity
Pivotal May 10th Markets this Friday have two metrics to watch: the WASDE and Donald Trump’s tariffs on the Chinese. His threat to substantially ramp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close...
No China Trade Deal?
The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Last week Argentina posted a few offers in the local market, although volume was small with the labor strike on Tuesday and Labor Day ho...
Dem Ag Strategies
With President Trump’s tweet this weekend that he’s ready to escalate the trade war with China, the administration’s recalcitrance on rem...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week due to the absence of fresh demand for old crop wheat as well as the favorable weather...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.38/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Amateur Hour
As the U.S. and China reportedly near the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations, Trump administration officials are turning their focus to Japan, thou...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again n...
Prevented Planting/Lost Acres Getting More Attention
It is now 3 May, and little planting progress has been accomplished across the Corn Belt and northern Plains. The weather remains too wet and too cold to g...
The Fed: Nominees, Commodities and Inflation
Most of the attention paid to the Federal Reserve over the past several weeks has been focused on the president’s intended nomination of Herman Cain...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent aver...
Livestock Producer Turnaround; ASF Update
Livestock Producer Turnaround Cow/calf operators and hog feeders have seen a decrease in margins over the past three years, according to the latest data on...
India’s Water; Politicized Trade; Trade Negotiation Outcomes
India’s Water India is still hoping to hold the Trump administration from removing it from eligibility for lower tariffs under the Generalized System...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.705/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.44/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul...
More Straws in the Wind
Grain and soy futures markets have been rather boring affairs for two years or more. To be sure, there have been a few short-term bursts of activity and pr...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Export Tax Rumor and High Soy Yields; Chinese Crushers; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Rumor of Export Tax Increases in Argentina Escalates Sales Registrations There was a rumor last week in Argentina that the government would soon announce a...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 122,100 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 71 percent from the previous week and 72 perce...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. T...
U.S.-China Implications; U.S.-Japan Reality Check; Trade War Costs; CFTC Retirement Gift
U.S.–China Implications Some reports indicate a U.S.–China trade deal will be announced by the end of next week. Acting White House Chief of St...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 April 2019 Domestic grain prices declined or remained stable in RUB expression except for milling rye prices, which rose sligh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.36/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. J...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt an...
Market Commentary
The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are...
Congress’s Ag To-Do List
Congress is back in session today after a two-week recess for Easter and Passover, and the four weeks until the Memorial Day recess will be crucial for som...
Worrisome Weather Delays Planting
The first six weeks of spring have been unusually cold and wet for most of the central U.S. Drenching rains together with the melting of an unusually deep...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey says it will be a “key player in global grain” with plans to greatly expand storage/...
Oilseed Highlights: China-Canada Dispute; India’s Planting Intentions; Brazilian Truck Freight Rates
China Expanding Blockage of Imports from Canada It appears that China has raised the pressure on Canada to release the Huawei Technologies CFO. After she w...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night session was quiet with corn higher while wheat and soybeans were slightly lower. That trading pattern didn’t change today. Corn was...
Russia Meat Subsidy; Secondary Effects
Russia Meat Subsidy The Russian government will reportedly allocate $6.5 billion for “soft” export-oriented investment loans to the meat indust...
Lower Prices and Weather Will Reduce U.S. Spring Wheat Acres
Cash prices for hard red spring wheat across the Dakotas and western Minnesota continue to press lower, and they are now down to $4.25-4.50/bushel for 14 p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s economic situation is growing more complex every day. Both external and internal factors (infla...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6175/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.3525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Trade Economics and GDP
U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 3.2 percent, according to the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week in sympathy with the EU and U.S. markets. With its export surplus almost entirely gone...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. J...
Market Commentary
The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened...
Hill Jam; SOE Definition; Sweet Data
Hill Jam Researchers at the University of Warwick in the UK affirm the work of other economists in finding that the imposition of tariffs harms both the fo...
Bearish Attitudes Will Be Tough to Change
The continuing decline in wheat, corn and soybean prices is good news for the world’s consumers, but it is very bad news for the world’s produc...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which w...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s close...
Final 2018 Red Meat Production; China Update; NYC Meat Reduction
Final 2018 Red Meat Production USDA released the final tally of 2018 red meat production yesterday. Beef and pork production were individually 103 percent...
Permanent Pivot on Trade Policy; U.S.-China Deal Rollout; U.S.-Japan Timing
Permanent Pivot in Trade Policy German Green Party member of the European Parliament Martin Häusling and other politicians are telling the European Co...
The Good and the Bad
It has been said that commodities futures markets are zero-sum games, that someone’s gains are always offset by someone else’s losses. Whereas...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.5725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Low Argentine Soy Protein; Bearish Soybeans
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights U.S. export sales of soybeans and soymeal were up in the week ending 18 April, but soyoil sales and exports declined from...
Ag Review - April 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean industry and U.S. meat/livestock industry, and an assessm...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 425,300 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 34 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression du...
Tri-Rift; Labor Waves
Tri-Rift President Donald Trump has ripped apart the trilateral EU-Japan-U.S. policy consortium and looks to increasingly target Europe with his bitterness...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.4675/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.385/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war wit...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muste...
Ethanol Growth Faces Mixed Bag of RFS Regulations
According to data released late last week, the EPA has granted one additional small refinery exemption (SRE) for 2017 and received three more SRE requests...
Transparency’s Cost to Innovation
There is widespread support in Europe for the new revisions to the General Food Law, but research may prove the risk that the critics have warned about. Un...
Agricultural Funds and ETFs
The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.5125/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed; EU Soy Imports; Mexican Soy Imports; Brazilian Truck Strike
Neonicotinoid Insecticide Ban May End Rapeseed Crops in the EU The EU restricted the use of three neonicotinoid insecticides on flowering plants beginning...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As of 15 April, Egypt had bought approximately 365,000 MT of local wheat against its purchase tar...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather for...
Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion
Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing cou...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.5475/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.4175/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close...
Latest Summer Weather Maps
NOAA updates its long-term weather forecasts near the end of each month, and the April updates were released late last week. There have been some concerns...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market was very slow last week as it was shortened by the Easter-related holiday. It was even slower today as Monday i...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week in the absence of fresh demand. Consumers in the major destinations are more or less covered until...
Cattle on Feed at Record Level for April
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 April on Thursday, which was a day early because of the Good Friday holiday. The mostly neutral...
Good Friday
The markets are closed tomorrow, 19 April 2019 in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed that day, and the next Ag Pers...
Market Commentary
Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 317,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 28 percent from the prior 4...
Cherry-Pick USMCA; PRC TKO; FAANG Attack
Cherry-Pick USMCA The economic analysis of the U.S.-Mexica-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by the U.S. International Trade Administration was released today and g...
Cattle on Feed
April 1 2019 Cattle on Feed totaled 12.0 million head; 2 percent above April 1, 2018. This is the highest April 1 inventory since the series began in 1996...
The 2017 Census of Agriculture
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) conducts a census of U.S. production agricultural every five years. The most recent one, comp...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.585/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Chinese Soy Demand
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 11 April indicated U.S. soybean sales were up from the previous...
Cattle on Feed Pre-Report
With the Good Friday holiday tomorrow, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report, detailing the number on feed as of 1 April, today after the mar...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and w...
The Outsized Burden; Handbag Solution
The Outsized Burden Cuba is a small island country that imposes an outsized burden on U.S. politics, but this is declining. Historically, there were two pr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 April 2019 Domestic prices fluctuated in the South and Volga Valley but mostly decreased in other regions. The average milling...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.5825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
What do February’s Retail Sales Mean for Agriculture?
The consumer is often said to be the backbone of the U.S. economy, and that looks to be a positive factor for the food and agricultural sectors. The U.S. C...
Market Commentary
For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading v...
Two Ships Passing; Greening Up or Green Wash?; Whitewash
Two Ships Passing Yesterday EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malmström declared that with the new negotiating mandate, she is prepared to sit down immediatel...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Palm Oil Tariffs; Canadian Canola; India’s Feed Sector
India’s Vegoil Refiners Push Lower Tariff Rates for Crude Palm Oil The Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India is pushing the government to low...