Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 21 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
China Market Analysis
Economy and Diet The decline in China’s population, with the birthrate falling 17 percent to its lowest since 1949, is likely having some impact on total food consumption. Slower-than-reported economic growth may also be a factor, as 2025 saw lower agricultural prices and fewer imports. M...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq is reported to be facing the “driest year in modern history” due to drought and greatly reduced water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey. Forecasters say the 2025/26 wheat crop could be down by...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
European Market Analysis
Regional News In the first two weeks of 2026, 10 countries in the EU reported a combined total of 42 outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry farms. The virus was detected on 17 farms in Poland, five each in Germany, France, and Hungary, and four in Belgium. Bulgaria, Denmark,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 January 2026 The first week of January is typically quiet for trading and logistics as Russia observes Orthodox Christmas. Activity remained subdued, although the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian war continued to shape market sentiment. Both sides carried out airst...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
China Market Analysis
Beef China’s new import safeguard on beef continues to stir the market. Its largest impact is on the biggest supplier of protein, Brazil. Suppliers in that country say they will have to reduce production and slaughter capacity. Meanwhile, Ireland is pleased that Beijing has lifted a ban t...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
London based GAFTA – Grain and Feed Trade Association – advises that in 2024/25 they had 314 new mainly grain arbitrations and 43 appeals. 170 arbitrations were finalized while 46 were settled outside of arbitration. The average cost for an arbitration, under rule 125 for a GAFTA me...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
Mercosure Regional Analysis
CORN Corn planting progress has reached nearly 90 percent of projected area. Almost 70 percent of the corn crops is going through the critical growth stage. Crops are beginning to experience a lack of wáter after many days of intense heat and wind. , Fields are starting to appear stresed...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 December 2025–02 January 2026 Russia’s grain market remained bearish during the final week of December, with most fundamentals continuing to pressure prices and preventing authorities from setting higher export duties. The country will remain heavily export...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
China Market Analysis
Donroe Doctrine The forced extradition of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Moduro has been variously framed to stop the flow of narcotics and obtain oil but the geopolitical implications are not lost on Beijing. It buys its petroleum from seven main suppliers, with Russia sanctioned, Iran in...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco has established its soft wheat import rebate program for 1 January to 30 April 2026. The actual amount of the import rebate is calculated on the average landed cost versus the government set reference price based on inform...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Happy New Year!
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forward to serving you in 2026! Please note that our next report will be issued on Friday, 2 January as the U.S. markets are closed for th...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Beef and Pork Past, Present and Future
USDA’s November slaughter data helps decode some of the outlook for 2026. There are the known knowns - cattle and hog numbers are down, weights are up, and the breeding inventory for cattle is growing while for hogs it remains constant. But stabilized dairy cow slaughter, lower sow slaugh...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
China Market Analysis
Grain Utilization Grain market prices have been cooling of late due to the prospects of a large South American crop, but China is also cited as an influence. Sinograin has been auctioning soybeans and it may also be releasing some of its reserves of corn into the market. Corn and wheat are bein...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Thursday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday. WPI wishes everyone a joyous and safe holiday. WPI will resume operations on Friday, 26 December. Note that Ag Perspectives will be providing ma...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
China Market Analysis
Soybean Auction Falters To make way for recent purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans, Sinograin has been auctioning state-owned reserves of soybeans imported in earlier years. At its second auction, sales fell to 62 percent of the volume offered, versus 77 percent in the first auction. And the avera...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained stable and bearish, with weak domestic and export demand limiting price gains. Trade activity was slow, and a strong ruble prompted the government to maintain export duties. Global wheat supply remains ample,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from December 2024, and up slightly from 1 September 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.95 million head, was down 1 percent from last year and up sligh...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa Black Sea port infrastructure on 23 December reportedly damaged a vessel carrying Ukrainian soybeans. The EU Commission raised its forecast of EU common wheat production to 134.4 MMT for 2025/26 and bumped th...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Safaga port, south on the Red Sea, will be expanded and improved as a result of an agreement between Egypt’s Al Dahra Agriculture and Abu Dhabi based AD Pors Group. There are plans to make Safaga into a regiona...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data
The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...
WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Beef Market Recap and Outlook
On 21 November, Tyson Foods, one of the largest beef packing companies in the United States, announced it will close its cattle slaughter facility in Lexington, Nebraska, and reduce its beef operations in Amarillo, Texas, down to a single, full-capacity shift. Based on estimated slaughter at bo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 13.1 percent week-over-week, reaching 73 percent of total area, with yields remaining above average and above earlier expectations. As a result, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its production estimate to 27.1 MMT, broadly in line with the Rosario Board of Trade&rsq...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk freight markets are mixed this week with pre-holiday trade driving diverging trends. The Capesize sector saw some strength, primarily in the Atlantic, with demand for Brazilian loadings driving the market. Panamax and Supramax markets, in contrast, saw weaker pricing as ballaster...
Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 December 2025 Russia’s grain market continued its bearish trend that began in early December. Global fundamentals remain the primary pressure point, and Russia is no exception given its strong linkage to international trade flows. Exceptions include barte...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...
China Market Analysis
Beans to Storage China is carrying out its annual purge of stored soybeans, selling them at around a half million tons per week over two months at auction. The amount of market discount depends more on quality, which is better than a few years ago when the need for stock rotation was newly appr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling stayed limited across much of Europe last week as low flat prices, year-end cash-flow planning, and holiday-period logistics reduced the appetite to move tonnage. The practical impact was a thinner spot market: bids softened on paper, but physical values in se...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Iran says that there will be no problems with grain imports and distribution although news stories say that major importer Modalal Group is facing financial difficulties due to EU banking sanctions and a severe shortage of foreign...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
EXPORT TAXES The government announced last week a permanent reduction in export taxes on major agricultural products. The revised rates are as follows: Soybeans: 26 percent to 24 percent Byproducts: 24.5 percent to 22.5 percent Wheat and barley: 9.5 percent to 7.5 percent Corn and sorghum: 9.5...
European Revival; The Worm Turns
European Revival The transatlantic relationship is rapidly evolving and the story is told by some recent headlines… The U.S. has already swamped Europe with its technology and now it wants to own the EU’s energy market as well. European diplomats in Washington message the Tr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were softer last week with Capesize markets seeing weaker interest from East Australia and other Pacific locales. Traders are describing spot tonnage in the Pacific as “abundant”, a mentality that is pressuring rates. Similarly, demand for C3 ex Brazil and West Afri...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheets
Following the December WASDE report from Tuesday, WPI has updated our corn, wheat, and soybean supply and use models to examine market trends for the rest of MY 2025/26. Current indications for U.S. grain complex point to uneven fundamentals across these crops, particularly in terms of global e...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
No Trade Bailout; Statements Betray USMCA
No Trade Bailout The Trump Administration’s $12 billion economic assistance package to farmers is being framed by the media as a “bailout” for the adverse impact of the President’s tariffs and trade wars. But there is no adverse impact in most instances. Wheat prices hav...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained largely bearish during the first week of December, although some regions showed bullish sentiment. Trends varied between the European and Asian parts of the country. In Siberia, wheat prices declined across all...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
China Market Analysis
Moving the Goal Posts China is a critical demand driver for U.S. soybean farmers and they rallied when the White House announced on Halloween that China had committed to buying 12 MMT of soybeans by year’s end, and then 25 MMT over the coming three years. There were ample skeptics at the...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region North African and Middle East wheat, corn, and barley importers will see more competition from Russian grains as Russia has reduced its grain export taxes to zero. Russia hopes to increase grain exports which are down by 13.3 perc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest progressed by 11.5 percent during the week, lifting completion to 45 percent of the harvestable area. Fieldwork moved across the central agricultural region at a normal pace, with yields continuing to surpass historical averages. Most of the remaining standing area was either dryi...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...
Livestock Round Up: Korea, Good News and Bad News for Beef
In January, Korea’s tariff on U.S. beef will drop to zero as laid out in a long schedule as part of the 2012 Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Prior to the agreement it was 40 percent, in 2025 it was at 2.6 percent. Korea has been a growing market especially for premium cuts of beef, with...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 November 2025 During the last week of November, grain markets remained quite volatile from region to region. A strong RUB and bearish global market is putting pressure on wheat prices. Traders were very cautious in the past regarding the export duty for wheat...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
China Market Analysis
Economy China’s official data and its rhetoric do not always align and while its exports have remained robust, it has not prevented a slump in manufacturing output. Its purchasing managers index (PMI) was below 50 (contraction territory) in November, the eighth straight monthly decline. W...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey is reportedly buying Russian grain once again due to lower wheat production this year – production of wheat dropped from 21 MMT in 2023/24 to an expected 16.3 MMT in 2025/26 – due to severe drought. Turkey&rsquo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibited bearish sentiment due to exportable surplus, while Asian Russia showed signs of price recovery, though uncertainty persists. The bearish...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that have been unloaded and two in Egyptian ports. The total value is said to be in excess of $30 million. The shipper says that there has been s...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU policymakers have come to appreciate that genetic engineering is technology, and Europe is falling behind in an increasingly technological w...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked America-to-China soybean sales. He is correct that the current Sino-American trade war has ended U.S. soybean sales to the Middle Kingdom, someth...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head, pressured by a modest dip in the Choice cutout and a $3 increase in fed cattle prices. The drop credit also weakened for the sixth consecuti...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week celebrations ended on Wednesday and, so far, dry bulk rates have not seen much upward movement. Panamax and Capesize vessels are slightly f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
U.S. 2025/26 Crop Balance Sheets Growing Heavy
WPI’s latest forecasts for the U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum markets in 2025/26 are increasingly leaning bearish due to expected larger supplies and, except for corn, weaker demand. China’s continued absence from the soybean and sorghum markets is a major headwind for the a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueling optimism. With relatively low export duties, Russian farmers may improve grain margins this year, supported by significant trade volumes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. That marks a significant escalation of Trump’s effort to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition. He had previously stat...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility along with a poultry processing operation – both are part of the company’s $400 million expansion program in Saudi that will hel...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over August and 7.9 points above year-ago levels. September was the eighth consecutive increase in the index. The increase in the meat index cam...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall crop planting outlook. The rains did elevate concerns for planting delays in some areas, however, especially with temperatures cooling down a...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 52 points in September, down from 53 a month prior and indicating a weaker rate of expansion of the manufacturing sector. A rea...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were especially dull and weaker, especially amid doubts about how China’s grain demand will play out after the holiday. China still has not book...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Capesize markets were higher on iron ore demand from west Australia with a steady flow of cargo bookings through the week. The improved booking...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expectations of continued bearishness. Despite exportable surpluses and farmers’ need to generate cash to service rising interest-bearing l...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2025 wheat crop is above the five-year average at a total of 5.1 MMT which is expected to result in 2025/26 wheat imports dropping by about 9 percent to 2.0 MMT, according to the FAO. The past two wheat crops in Iraq...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins pulled back last week but remained positive for just the sixth time this year. Margins fell about $64/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $10/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a modest $1.80/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were volatile last week but failed to settle on much of a direction. Capesize markets stabilized and seemed to be finding a little support, which helped stabilize other vessel sectors. Miners in the Pacific remain consistently active, which is supporting Capesize rates in the r...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.1 million head, 99 percent of last year, as expected. Placements and marketings came in slightly more bullish than the pre-report estimates, but still close, within one perc...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ profitability outlook continues to defy all bullish expectations with projected returns surging to all-time highs. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis are also forecast to rise above 2014 and 2015, which should provide producers with strong incentive...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
How the EPA’s Anti-Decision Will Affect Biofuels and Soyoil
In mythology or legends, the hero is obviously identified – the “good guy” standing up for justice, not compromising what is right, and displays courage or other noble and admired qualities. Standing in contrast – but not quite opposite – to the hero is the anti-he...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.7 and 99.7 percent of 1 September 2024. Those estimates imply an on-fee...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 September 2025 Bearish sentiment in the Russian grains markets eased during the second week of September, with prices stabilizing in some regions. Proximity to ports continues to offer premiums as export activity gains momentum. Most grains are experiencing sol...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Supply Down on First Half of Year
U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels. Additionally, domestic consumption is also down. In Janua...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s courts have surprised the grain/oilseed industry by ruling that an arbitration award like a recent one on a FOSFA contract cannot be enforced in Turkey. This decision will be of concern to sellers and buyers using b...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the sixth straight week to put returns at their highest point in two years. The increase in margins came despite a pullback in beef values as packers were able to push fed cattle prices even lower and increase profits. The big concern for packers in the next 3-4...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 21 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
China Market Analysis
Economy and Diet The decline in China’s population, with the birthrate falling 17 percent to its lowest since 1949, is likely having some impact on total food consumption. Slower-than-reported economic growth may also be a factor, as 2025 saw lower agricultural prices and fewer imports. M...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq is reported to be facing the “driest year in modern history” due to drought and greatly reduced water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey. Forecasters say the 2025/26 wheat crop could be down by...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
European Market Analysis
Regional News In the first two weeks of 2026, 10 countries in the EU reported a combined total of 42 outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry farms. The virus was detected on 17 farms in Poland, five each in Germany, France, and Hungary, and four in Belgium. Bulgaria, Denmark,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 January 2026 The first week of January is typically quiet for trading and logistics as Russia observes Orthodox Christmas. Activity remained subdued, although the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian war continued to shape market sentiment. Both sides carried out airst...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
China Market Analysis
Beef China’s new import safeguard on beef continues to stir the market. Its largest impact is on the biggest supplier of protein, Brazil. Suppliers in that country say they will have to reduce production and slaughter capacity. Meanwhile, Ireland is pleased that Beijing has lifted a ban t...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
London based GAFTA – Grain and Feed Trade Association – advises that in 2024/25 they had 314 new mainly grain arbitrations and 43 appeals. 170 arbitrations were finalized while 46 were settled outside of arbitration. The average cost for an arbitration, under rule 125 for a GAFTA me...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
Mercosure Regional Analysis
CORN Corn planting progress has reached nearly 90 percent of projected area. Almost 70 percent of the corn crops is going through the critical growth stage. Crops are beginning to experience a lack of wáter after many days of intense heat and wind. , Fields are starting to appear stresed...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 December 2025–02 January 2026 Russia’s grain market remained bearish during the final week of December, with most fundamentals continuing to pressure prices and preventing authorities from setting higher export duties. The country will remain heavily export...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
China Market Analysis
Donroe Doctrine The forced extradition of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Moduro has been variously framed to stop the flow of narcotics and obtain oil but the geopolitical implications are not lost on Beijing. It buys its petroleum from seven main suppliers, with Russia sanctioned, Iran in...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco has established its soft wheat import rebate program for 1 January to 30 April 2026. The actual amount of the import rebate is calculated on the average landed cost versus the government set reference price based on inform...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Happy New Year!
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forward to serving you in 2026! Please note that our next report will be issued on Friday, 2 January as the U.S. markets are closed for th...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Beef and Pork Past, Present and Future
USDA’s November slaughter data helps decode some of the outlook for 2026. There are the known knowns - cattle and hog numbers are down, weights are up, and the breeding inventory for cattle is growing while for hogs it remains constant. But stabilized dairy cow slaughter, lower sow slaugh...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
China Market Analysis
Grain Utilization Grain market prices have been cooling of late due to the prospects of a large South American crop, but China is also cited as an influence. Sinograin has been auctioning soybeans and it may also be releasing some of its reserves of corn into the market. Corn and wheat are bein...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Thursday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday. WPI wishes everyone a joyous and safe holiday. WPI will resume operations on Friday, 26 December. Note that Ag Perspectives will be providing ma...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
China Market Analysis
Soybean Auction Falters To make way for recent purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans, Sinograin has been auctioning state-owned reserves of soybeans imported in earlier years. At its second auction, sales fell to 62 percent of the volume offered, versus 77 percent in the first auction. And the avera...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained stable and bearish, with weak domestic and export demand limiting price gains. Trade activity was slow, and a strong ruble prompted the government to maintain export duties. Global wheat supply remains ample,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from December 2024, and up slightly from 1 September 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.95 million head, was down 1 percent from last year and up sligh...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa Black Sea port infrastructure on 23 December reportedly damaged a vessel carrying Ukrainian soybeans. The EU Commission raised its forecast of EU common wheat production to 134.4 MMT for 2025/26 and bumped th...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Safaga port, south on the Red Sea, will be expanded and improved as a result of an agreement between Egypt’s Al Dahra Agriculture and Abu Dhabi based AD Pors Group. There are plans to make Safaga into a regiona...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data
The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...
WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Beef Market Recap and Outlook
On 21 November, Tyson Foods, one of the largest beef packing companies in the United States, announced it will close its cattle slaughter facility in Lexington, Nebraska, and reduce its beef operations in Amarillo, Texas, down to a single, full-capacity shift. Based on estimated slaughter at bo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 13.1 percent week-over-week, reaching 73 percent of total area, with yields remaining above average and above earlier expectations. As a result, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its production estimate to 27.1 MMT, broadly in line with the Rosario Board of Trade&rsq...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk freight markets are mixed this week with pre-holiday trade driving diverging trends. The Capesize sector saw some strength, primarily in the Atlantic, with demand for Brazilian loadings driving the market. Panamax and Supramax markets, in contrast, saw weaker pricing as ballaster...
Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 December 2025 Russia’s grain market continued its bearish trend that began in early December. Global fundamentals remain the primary pressure point, and Russia is no exception given its strong linkage to international trade flows. Exceptions include barte...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...
China Market Analysis
Beans to Storage China is carrying out its annual purge of stored soybeans, selling them at around a half million tons per week over two months at auction. The amount of market discount depends more on quality, which is better than a few years ago when the need for stock rotation was newly appr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling stayed limited across much of Europe last week as low flat prices, year-end cash-flow planning, and holiday-period logistics reduced the appetite to move tonnage. The practical impact was a thinner spot market: bids softened on paper, but physical values in se...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Iran says that there will be no problems with grain imports and distribution although news stories say that major importer Modalal Group is facing financial difficulties due to EU banking sanctions and a severe shortage of foreign...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
EXPORT TAXES The government announced last week a permanent reduction in export taxes on major agricultural products. The revised rates are as follows: Soybeans: 26 percent to 24 percent Byproducts: 24.5 percent to 22.5 percent Wheat and barley: 9.5 percent to 7.5 percent Corn and sorghum: 9.5...
European Revival; The Worm Turns
European Revival The transatlantic relationship is rapidly evolving and the story is told by some recent headlines… The U.S. has already swamped Europe with its technology and now it wants to own the EU’s energy market as well. European diplomats in Washington message the Tr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were softer last week with Capesize markets seeing weaker interest from East Australia and other Pacific locales. Traders are describing spot tonnage in the Pacific as “abundant”, a mentality that is pressuring rates. Similarly, demand for C3 ex Brazil and West Afri...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheets
Following the December WASDE report from Tuesday, WPI has updated our corn, wheat, and soybean supply and use models to examine market trends for the rest of MY 2025/26. Current indications for U.S. grain complex point to uneven fundamentals across these crops, particularly in terms of global e...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
No Trade Bailout; Statements Betray USMCA
No Trade Bailout The Trump Administration’s $12 billion economic assistance package to farmers is being framed by the media as a “bailout” for the adverse impact of the President’s tariffs and trade wars. But there is no adverse impact in most instances. Wheat prices hav...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained largely bearish during the first week of December, although some regions showed bullish sentiment. Trends varied between the European and Asian parts of the country. In Siberia, wheat prices declined across all...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
China Market Analysis
Moving the Goal Posts China is a critical demand driver for U.S. soybean farmers and they rallied when the White House announced on Halloween that China had committed to buying 12 MMT of soybeans by year’s end, and then 25 MMT over the coming three years. There were ample skeptics at the...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region North African and Middle East wheat, corn, and barley importers will see more competition from Russian grains as Russia has reduced its grain export taxes to zero. Russia hopes to increase grain exports which are down by 13.3 perc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest progressed by 11.5 percent during the week, lifting completion to 45 percent of the harvestable area. Fieldwork moved across the central agricultural region at a normal pace, with yields continuing to surpass historical averages. Most of the remaining standing area was either dryi...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...
Livestock Round Up: Korea, Good News and Bad News for Beef
In January, Korea’s tariff on U.S. beef will drop to zero as laid out in a long schedule as part of the 2012 Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Prior to the agreement it was 40 percent, in 2025 it was at 2.6 percent. Korea has been a growing market especially for premium cuts of beef, with...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 November 2025 During the last week of November, grain markets remained quite volatile from region to region. A strong RUB and bearish global market is putting pressure on wheat prices. Traders were very cautious in the past regarding the export duty for wheat...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
China Market Analysis
Economy China’s official data and its rhetoric do not always align and while its exports have remained robust, it has not prevented a slump in manufacturing output. Its purchasing managers index (PMI) was below 50 (contraction territory) in November, the eighth straight monthly decline. W...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey is reportedly buying Russian grain once again due to lower wheat production this year – production of wheat dropped from 21 MMT in 2023/24 to an expected 16.3 MMT in 2025/26 – due to severe drought. Turkey&rsquo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibited bearish sentiment due to exportable surplus, while Asian Russia showed signs of price recovery, though uncertainty persists. The bearish...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that have been unloaded and two in Egyptian ports. The total value is said to be in excess of $30 million. The shipper says that there has been s...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU policymakers have come to appreciate that genetic engineering is technology, and Europe is falling behind in an increasingly technological w...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked America-to-China soybean sales. He is correct that the current Sino-American trade war has ended U.S. soybean sales to the Middle Kingdom, someth...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head, pressured by a modest dip in the Choice cutout and a $3 increase in fed cattle prices. The drop credit also weakened for the sixth consecuti...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week celebrations ended on Wednesday and, so far, dry bulk rates have not seen much upward movement. Panamax and Capesize vessels are slightly f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
U.S. 2025/26 Crop Balance Sheets Growing Heavy
WPI’s latest forecasts for the U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum markets in 2025/26 are increasingly leaning bearish due to expected larger supplies and, except for corn, weaker demand. China’s continued absence from the soybean and sorghum markets is a major headwind for the a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueling optimism. With relatively low export duties, Russian farmers may improve grain margins this year, supported by significant trade volumes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. That marks a significant escalation of Trump’s effort to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition. He had previously stat...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility along with a poultry processing operation – both are part of the company’s $400 million expansion program in Saudi that will hel...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over August and 7.9 points above year-ago levels. September was the eighth consecutive increase in the index. The increase in the meat index cam...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall crop planting outlook. The rains did elevate concerns for planting delays in some areas, however, especially with temperatures cooling down a...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 52 points in September, down from 53 a month prior and indicating a weaker rate of expansion of the manufacturing sector. A rea...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were especially dull and weaker, especially amid doubts about how China’s grain demand will play out after the holiday. China still has not book...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Capesize markets were higher on iron ore demand from west Australia with a steady flow of cargo bookings through the week. The improved booking...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expectations of continued bearishness. Despite exportable surpluses and farmers’ need to generate cash to service rising interest-bearing l...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2025 wheat crop is above the five-year average at a total of 5.1 MMT which is expected to result in 2025/26 wheat imports dropping by about 9 percent to 2.0 MMT, according to the FAO. The past two wheat crops in Iraq...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins pulled back last week but remained positive for just the sixth time this year. Margins fell about $64/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $10/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a modest $1.80/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were volatile last week but failed to settle on much of a direction. Capesize markets stabilized and seemed to be finding a little support, which helped stabilize other vessel sectors. Miners in the Pacific remain consistently active, which is supporting Capesize rates in the r...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.1 million head, 99 percent of last year, as expected. Placements and marketings came in slightly more bullish than the pre-report estimates, but still close, within one perc...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ profitability outlook continues to defy all bullish expectations with projected returns surging to all-time highs. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis are also forecast to rise above 2014 and 2015, which should provide producers with strong incentive...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
How the EPA’s Anti-Decision Will Affect Biofuels and Soyoil
In mythology or legends, the hero is obviously identified – the “good guy” standing up for justice, not compromising what is right, and displays courage or other noble and admired qualities. Standing in contrast – but not quite opposite – to the hero is the anti-he...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.7 and 99.7 percent of 1 September 2024. Those estimates imply an on-fee...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 September 2025 Bearish sentiment in the Russian grains markets eased during the second week of September, with prices stabilizing in some regions. Proximity to ports continues to offer premiums as export activity gains momentum. Most grains are experiencing sol...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Supply Down on First Half of Year
U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels. Additionally, domestic consumption is also down. In Janua...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s courts have surprised the grain/oilseed industry by ruling that an arbitration award like a recent one on a FOSFA contract cannot be enforced in Turkey. This decision will be of concern to sellers and buyers using b...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the sixth straight week to put returns at their highest point in two years. The increase in margins came despite a pullback in beef values as packers were able to push fed cattle prices even lower and increase profits. The big concern for packers in the next 3-4...