Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 26 November)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibited bearish sentiment due to exportable surplus, while Asian Russia showed signs of price recovery, though uncertainty persists. The bearish...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that have been unloaded and two in Egyptian ports. The total value is said to be in excess of $30 million. The shipper says that there has been s...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU policymakers have come to appreciate that genetic engineering is technology, and Europe is falling behind in an increasingly technological w...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked America-to-China soybean sales. He is correct that the current Sino-American trade war has ended U.S. soybean sales to the Middle Kingdom, someth...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head, pressured by a modest dip in the Choice cutout and a $3 increase in fed cattle prices. The drop credit also weakened for the sixth consecuti...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week celebrations ended on Wednesday and, so far, dry bulk rates have not seen much upward movement. Panamax and Capesize vessels are slightly f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
U.S. 2025/26 Crop Balance Sheets Growing Heavy
WPI’s latest forecasts for the U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum markets in 2025/26 are increasingly leaning bearish due to expected larger supplies and, except for corn, weaker demand. China’s continued absence from the soybean and sorghum markets is a major headwind for the a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueling optimism. With relatively low export duties, Russian farmers may improve grain margins this year, supported by significant trade volumes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. That marks a significant escalation of Trump’s effort to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition. He had previously stat...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility along with a poultry processing operation – both are part of the company’s $400 million expansion program in Saudi that will hel...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over August and 7.9 points above year-ago levels. September was the eighth consecutive increase in the index. The increase in the meat index cam...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall crop planting outlook. The rains did elevate concerns for planting delays in some areas, however, especially with temperatures cooling down a...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 52 points in September, down from 53 a month prior and indicating a weaker rate of expansion of the manufacturing sector. A rea...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were especially dull and weaker, especially amid doubts about how China’s grain demand will play out after the holiday. China still has not book...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Capesize markets were higher on iron ore demand from west Australia with a steady flow of cargo bookings through the week. The improved booking...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expectations of continued bearishness. Despite exportable surpluses and farmers’ need to generate cash to service rising interest-bearing l...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2025 wheat crop is above the five-year average at a total of 5.1 MMT which is expected to result in 2025/26 wheat imports dropping by about 9 percent to 2.0 MMT, according to the FAO. The past two wheat crops in Iraq...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins pulled back last week but remained positive for just the sixth time this year. Margins fell about $64/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $10/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a modest $1.80/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were volatile last week but failed to settle on much of a direction. Capesize markets stabilized and seemed to be finding a little support, which helped stabilize other vessel sectors. Miners in the Pacific remain consistently active, which is supporting Capesize rates in the r...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.1 million head, 99 percent of last year, as expected. Placements and marketings came in slightly more bullish than the pre-report estimates, but still close, within one perc...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ profitability outlook continues to defy all bullish expectations with projected returns surging to all-time highs. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis are also forecast to rise above 2014 and 2015, which should provide producers with strong incentive...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
How the EPA’s Anti-Decision Will Affect Biofuels and Soyoil
In mythology or legends, the hero is obviously identified – the “good guy” standing up for justice, not compromising what is right, and displays courage or other noble and admired qualities. Standing in contrast – but not quite opposite – to the hero is the anti-he...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.7 and 99.7 percent of 1 September 2024. Those estimates imply an on-fee...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 September 2025 Bearish sentiment in the Russian grains markets eased during the second week of September, with prices stabilizing in some regions. Proximity to ports continues to offer premiums as export activity gains momentum. Most grains are experiencing sol...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Supply Down on First Half of Year
U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels. Additionally, domestic consumption is also down. In Janua...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s courts have surprised the grain/oilseed industry by ruling that an arbitration award like a recent one on a FOSFA contract cannot be enforced in Turkey. This decision will be of concern to sellers and buyers using b...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the sixth straight week to put returns at their highest point in two years. The increase in margins came despite a pullback in beef values as packers were able to push fed cattle prices even lower and increase profits. The big concern for packers in the next 3-4...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
Outlook for the Fed Meeting This Week
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week with the make-up of the committee still up in the air. Governor Lisa Cook is questionable regarding her attendance after President Trump has sought her to ouster her on mortgage frau...
Chemo-phobia on Steroids
Notably, Congressional Republicans followed the demands of farm groups and added a provision in the latest government funding bill that some say would shield pesticide companies from lawsuits. Companies like Bayer have battled lawsuits for selling pesticides lawfully approved for use by regulat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest is virtually complete, with only isolated fields still being collected. Final output is expected to exceed 50 MMT. Attention now shifts to the 2025/26 crop, where planted area is projected at 7.8 million hectares — surpassed only by the 20...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises; Market Marches Its Own Beat
While there was some red flashing early in today’s trading session, by the close all major grain and oilseed contracts were in the green. Ahead of USDA’s September WASDE report, the trade was focused on yield cuts, which had also been the principal output of various private sector c...
WASDE Livestock: More Poultry and Less Red Meat
Despite record high yields from corn and soybeans in today’s WASDE, the forecast for red meat and broiler production in 2025 was reduced slightly from the August report. Both beef and pork production were down, while broiler production was up. For 2025, beef was down on lower fed cattle...
USDA’s Outlook for World Vegoils
The headline figures from the September WASDE were the U.S. corn and soybean yield and production figures, both of which were in line with expectations, and thus created the market’s ho-hum reaction. Somewhat lost in the day’s focus on primary crops, however, was the USDA’s up...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets rallied this week buyers extending coverage ahead of China’s Golden Week festival in 1-8 October. The rally came partly from an uptick in cargo demand but mostly from vessel supply disruptions stemming from the U.S. fees against Chinese vessels. This is causing Ch...
Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?
The trading before a major WASDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t. The volume trading corn, wheat and so...
Livestock Roundup: Inflation Is Up
The CPI released this morning showed that August prices increased 0.4 percent and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. For food at home, the index rose to 0.6 percent in August and for 0.3 percent for food away from home. The August data compares to a drop of -0.1 percent in July and 2.7 percen...
China’s Beef Outlook Amid a Shrinking Middle Class
Recently, the USDA FAS lowered its forecast for China’s 2025 beef consumption based on higher prices and the Middle Kingdom’s slowing economy. The USDA forecast consumption at 11.17 MMT, down 3 percent from 2024 and the first annual decline since 2017. The motivation behind th...
Remembering 9-11
Twenty-four years ago, on September 11, 2001, the U.S. experienced one of the most tragic and influential days in the nation’s history. The events of that day would spark great unity, and later division, as our nation grappled with terrorism’s fallout. The days and weeks immediately...
Market Commentary: Calm for the Day but Geopolitics Hint at Looming Volatility
The CBOT was solidly in the red on Wednesday while cattle futures regained some of their former strength. Markets had to process multiple headlines at the national/international political level, which led to some mild risk-off trade. Mostly, however, for grains, the looming WASDE dominated the...
Wheat from the Chaff; Europe Gets Squeezed
Wheat from the Chaff An agricultural meeting in Arkansas last week drew 400 to 500 farmers, a much larger group than expected at harvest time. They vented their angst over low commodity prices, high input costs, and consequently low profitability. One estimate from bankers is that farm bankrupt...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 1–5 September 2025 Bearish sentiments prevailed across both the European and Asian parts of Russia. The market is under pressure as stocks and yields are better than expected especially in Volga Valley and Black Soil region. Siberia and Urals harvesting campaign is...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The U.S. is not the only country suffering from tight cattle supplies and rising beef values, as the EU is battling the same problem. Across the EU, there is a shortage of slaughter cattle that continues to intensify and drive prices higher. Germany is seeing slightly greate...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Two Markets: Grains Consolidate While Cattle Correction Accelerates
Note: WPI’s data supplier for futures pricing and data experienced a significant outage on Tuesday, 9 September. All prices/quotes in this article are believed to be correct, but clients should double-check values before acting on any information contained herein. The ag markets sho...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Venting Hypocrisy; Xi – Trump Meeting; Say Cheese Please
Venting Hypocrisy At a BRICS meeting this past weekend, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva characterized President Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of “blackmail.” The formal definition of blackmail involves demanding benefit from someone in exchange for not reveali...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan flooding reportedly damaged as much as 30 percent of wheat stocks in some areas, especially eastern Punjab. Local wheat prices are said to be up by 40 percent with further increases expected. Trade reports say that due to...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the fifth straight week and added about $68/head in profits to put returns to processing back in a very healthy range. Margins are now around $80/head, which is on part with the 2020-2015 average. The increase in margins comes as beef prices hover near all-time...
Market Commentary: Technical Momentum Shifts at Odds with Fundamentals
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with technical factors driving short covering and some cautious fresh long buying. There wasn’t much from a fundamental standpoint to drive the move, but the technical picture is firming for most commodities. Corn saw substantial follow-through...
USG Closure; Ag Gets Special Treatment; Policy Shorts
USG Closure Congressional Democrats are debating whether they should force the U.S. government into closure at the end of this month when the budget (continuing resolution) expires. Back in March, a handful of Democratic U.S. senators joined with the Republicans in ensuring funding through 30 S...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week’s rainfall covered much of Argentina’s western wheat-growing region, improving prospects for cereals there. Still, 27.3 percent of the area now shows excess water — up from 7 percent the prior week — mainly in the east and south, where fungal diseas...
Japan–U.S. Trade Deal Implemented
The U.S.-Japan trade deal is now in place. It provides for a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering from Japan. For goods that were subject to tariffs less than 15 percent will now face higher duties at 15 percent, but goods that faced duties of 15 percent or higher will not increase. The tar...
WPI U.S. State Soybean Yield and Production Forecasts
Following WPI’s discussion on Friday of state-level corn yield and production estimates, we offer the following outlook for the U.S. soybean crop on a state-by-state basis. Like corn, the size and yield potential of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop is of increasing debate with the USDA’s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders breaking a three-week trend of net short covering in the ag space as managed money traders expanded their almost-neutral positions. The expansion of short holdings came primarily from selling across the three soy complex contracts and from...
Market Commentary: Ending on a Sour Note
The weak jobs report sent most economic indices lower, except for gold. The dollar slumped lower despite the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. Corn, soybeans and some wheat contract teased higher at the start of the session but they couldn’t hold. There was yet another new contr...
Post-Labor Day Look at Pork and Beef Markets
With Labor Day behind us, here is a look at the meat market going into fall. Total hog slaughter for last week was estimated at 2.391 million head, 1.5 percent lower than a year ago, making this the 15th consecutive week below year ago levels. Seasonal national average weights are starting to t...
WPI U.S. State Corn Yield and Production Forecasts
The size and yield potential of the 2025 U.S. corn crop is of increasing debate and importance with the USDA’s September WASDE – and, more importantly, grain harvest – just around the corner. Much of the focus of recent discussions has been the impact of dryness across parts o...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet this week with the bullish momentum of the past few weeks fading and allowing values to slip lower. September is usually a lackluster month for freight markets as shippers await the North American grain harvest. The lack of Chinese buying of American soybeans is nota...
Market Commentary: Some Rebounds, Some New Contract Lows
Most of the board traded in the red to start today’s trading session. There is too much corn and soybeans and not enough prospective buyers. All three major wheat contracts hit new lows today. Except for corn, major contracts are bearishly trading below major moving averages. Grower group...
Cultivated and Veggie Based Meat Alternatives
The closure of the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports due to New World Screwworm (NWS) has led to a 17 percent increase in beef prices in Mexico and a 12 percent increase in prices in the U.S. Cattle shipments to the U.S. have dropped more than 70 percent from January to July of this year...
Inflation Regime Changes and Commodity Market Outlooks
U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is at a crossroads, which is creating uncertainty for macroeconomic and commodity markets. Chief among these concerns is “sticky” inflation that has resisted the Fed’s efforts to control it, which is juxtaposed against a weakening labor market...
Market Commentary: Macro Malaise and Yield Expectations Turn CBOT Lower
The CBOT was almost entirely lower across the major ag markets on Wednesday with large supply expectations for the 2025 Northern Hemisphere grain and oilseed crops driving the weakness. More crop tours in the U.S. confirm large corn yields and high soybean pod counts/yield potential, while the...
Prop 12 Counterattack; Assault on International Organizations; Japan on Point
Prop 12 Counterattack To the great disappointment of key parts of the U.S. agriculture sector, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that California’s Prop 12 is constitutional, and that the state can establish its own rules on meat sold in the state regardless of its origin. The sect...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 25 – 29 August 2025 Bearish sentiments prevail on the Russian market. Most likely the bottom price levels are near for most of the grains except corn whose season started in September. Bearish trend is a tradition for this part of the season as harvesting is un...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the fourth straight week and once again added about $100/head in profits. Margins are now around $15/head, still low by post-2010 standards but an absolutely massive improvement from recent losses. The increase in margins comes as beef prices have approached new...
Market Commentary: Court Ruling Rattles Markets; Corn Rallies on Export Demand
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the holiday-shortened trading week with Friday’s ruling that President Trump’s tariffs may be illegal throwing ag and other markets into confusion. The ruling makes unclear the outlook for negotiating further trade deals – or even continuing...
SCO versus West
Instead of focusing on foes, the transatlantic alliance needs to remediate itself. Media reactions to this past weekend’s Shanghai Cooperation Council was telling. The New York Times was shocked that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “friends.” CNN called it “stark op...
Appellate Court Rules Against Tariffs; Credit Ratings Uncertain
On 28 May, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered that the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on 2 April be vacated. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Feder...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Except for the CBOT futures market, global wheat values were lower last week as larger harvest expectations weighed on market sentiment. With forecasts growing for the 2025/26 crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada, there seems no shortage of wheat supplies this year, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s cereal production in 2025 has improved due to better rainfall, according to the FAO, with wheat production up by 8.7 percent to 1.25 MMT and barley production up by 26.7 percent to 380,000 MT. Cereals imports for 2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
For the third straight week, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The move came primarily from continued short covering in the soy complex, with modest buying activity in wheat and corn. Funds are now essen...
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 1 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Tuesday, 2 September. ...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity
Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the grea...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets continued to strengthen this week, this time with the Supramax and Panamax sectors in the lead. Improved grain demand off the U.S. East Coast and supported values, alongside stronger interest in coal from South America. Baltic coal demand was also said to be &ldqu...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
U.S. and Canadian Livestock Inventories
Yesterday, NASS and Statistics Canada released the 1 July cattle inventory in the two countries. Combined, the inventory was 106.1 million head, which was down to 99 percent of 2023 (the USDA suspended the July inventory report in 2024 due to budget constraints) and down to 92.4 percent of 2020...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the third straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits on fresh record highs in the beef market. Margins are now around -$80/head, still very low by post-2010 standards but a sharp improvement from recent losses. The broad strength across beef markets &m...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize markets falling back after their recent rally while Panamax and Supramax values continue to firm. The Atlantic and Pacific markets saw diverging trends with the former seeing generally steady trade (except for spot positions) while the latter...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Oil Cost and Input Forecast
According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. petroleum production is forecast to hit 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 due primarily to improved well productivity. Increased supply will lower prices in 2026 and result in a fall in output to 13.28 million bpd in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Shows Protein Production Mostly Down
Red meat and poultry production total estimates were down for August in the latest WASDE report. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.926 billion pounds, which was 262 million pounds less than July on lower slaughter and relatively lighter dressed carcass weights. Steer prices were...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 August 2025 The speed of the harvesting campaign was the key price driver. Improved harvesting pace in the Centre and Black Soil regions made most of the grain prices plummet except for the best milling quality wheat. This is understandable as excessive rains...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
A Look at Inflation and Tariffs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI for July this morning. The CPI was up 0.2 percent for the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year. The rate was down from 0.3 percent in June and steady with the year-over-year of 2.7 percent at the end of June. However, the core CPI, whi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry announced that the planting of wheat and barley will be “severely reduced” due to low water reserves. Barley planting is going to be almost totally stopped. Vegetable growing and drip-...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Livestock Round Up: Trade Update
The beef sector experienced a week of record-breaking prices, and depressed packer margins for the week ending 1 August. Live cattle were a record $244.41 per hundredweight (cwt) for Choice steers, a $48 jump compared to the same week last year, while the cutout dropped $5.22 per pound and by m...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 July – 1 August 2025 The harmonizing of July old crop and new crop pricing is coming to an end. As harvesting continues with a delay, prices are volatile depending on the region. Delayed harvest often causes bullish sentiments in some individual regions but press...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka’s cereal imports in 2025 are seen increasing by about 10 percent to 1.6 MMT, mainly wheat as the country is not a wheat producer. The first maize crop of 2025 was good and is about 7 percent higher than average &nd...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The dry bulk market rally of the past two weeks has ended with rates turning softer this week. The Capesize sector – which lead the recent rally – is now leading the way lower with the Panamax sector in tow. The reason for the weaker rates is that fresh cargo...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Livestock Roundup: Cage-Free Egg Trend Complicates HPAI Recovery
USDA released its Egg Products report yesterday. Shell eggs broken totaled 199 million dozen during June 2025, down 2 percent from June 2024, but 2 percent above the 194 million dozen broken during May. During calendar year 2025 through June, shell eggs broken totaled 1.15 billion dozen, down 1...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 July 2025 During the fourth week of the new 2025/26 season, the export market was still the driving force behind pricing patterns. Harvesting entered into the active phase filling the needs on the market to the brim. As a result, domestic prices plummeted. T...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) may not be able to buy grain from Ukraine as it could be added to the blacklist. Ukraine says that the company has purchased wheat from Russia that was harvested in Russia occupied ar...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell $68/head last week and marked the third straight week of declines to end near -$220, which is back among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit for weaker margins was an $6/cwt pullback in the Choice cutout and broader beef markets while fed cattle prices ral...
Market Commentary: Weather Overrides Trade Deal; Cattle Hit New Highs on Tight Inventories
The big news for Monday’s ag market trade wasn’t the U.S.-EU trade deal, but rather continued favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest that will boost corn and soybean yield potential to record or near-record levels. The weather has private analysts boosting yield expectations by sever...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 26 November)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibited bearish sentiment due to exportable surplus, while Asian Russia showed signs of price recovery, though uncertainty persists. The bearish...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that have been unloaded and two in Egyptian ports. The total value is said to be in excess of $30 million. The shipper says that there has been s...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU policymakers have come to appreciate that genetic engineering is technology, and Europe is falling behind in an increasingly technological w...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked America-to-China soybean sales. He is correct that the current Sino-American trade war has ended U.S. soybean sales to the Middle Kingdom, someth...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head, pressured by a modest dip in the Choice cutout and a $3 increase in fed cattle prices. The drop credit also weakened for the sixth consecuti...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week celebrations ended on Wednesday and, so far, dry bulk rates have not seen much upward movement. Panamax and Capesize vessels are slightly f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
U.S. 2025/26 Crop Balance Sheets Growing Heavy
WPI’s latest forecasts for the U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum markets in 2025/26 are increasingly leaning bearish due to expected larger supplies and, except for corn, weaker demand. China’s continued absence from the soybean and sorghum markets is a major headwind for the a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueling optimism. With relatively low export duties, Russian farmers may improve grain margins this year, supported by significant trade volumes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. That marks a significant escalation of Trump’s effort to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition. He had previously stat...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility along with a poultry processing operation – both are part of the company’s $400 million expansion program in Saudi that will hel...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over August and 7.9 points above year-ago levels. September was the eighth consecutive increase in the index. The increase in the meat index cam...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall crop planting outlook. The rains did elevate concerns for planting delays in some areas, however, especially with temperatures cooling down a...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 52 points in September, down from 53 a month prior and indicating a weaker rate of expansion of the manufacturing sector. A rea...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were especially dull and weaker, especially amid doubts about how China’s grain demand will play out after the holiday. China still has not book...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Capesize markets were higher on iron ore demand from west Australia with a steady flow of cargo bookings through the week. The improved booking...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expectations of continued bearishness. Despite exportable surpluses and farmers’ need to generate cash to service rising interest-bearing l...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2025 wheat crop is above the five-year average at a total of 5.1 MMT which is expected to result in 2025/26 wheat imports dropping by about 9 percent to 2.0 MMT, according to the FAO. The past two wheat crops in Iraq...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins pulled back last week but remained positive for just the sixth time this year. Margins fell about $64/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $10/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a modest $1.80/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were volatile last week but failed to settle on much of a direction. Capesize markets stabilized and seemed to be finding a little support, which helped stabilize other vessel sectors. Miners in the Pacific remain consistently active, which is supporting Capesize rates in the r...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.1 million head, 99 percent of last year, as expected. Placements and marketings came in slightly more bullish than the pre-report estimates, but still close, within one perc...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ profitability outlook continues to defy all bullish expectations with projected returns surging to all-time highs. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis are also forecast to rise above 2014 and 2015, which should provide producers with strong incentive...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
How the EPA’s Anti-Decision Will Affect Biofuels and Soyoil
In mythology or legends, the hero is obviously identified – the “good guy” standing up for justice, not compromising what is right, and displays courage or other noble and admired qualities. Standing in contrast – but not quite opposite – to the hero is the anti-he...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.7 and 99.7 percent of 1 September 2024. Those estimates imply an on-fee...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 September 2025 Bearish sentiment in the Russian grains markets eased during the second week of September, with prices stabilizing in some regions. Proximity to ports continues to offer premiums as export activity gains momentum. Most grains are experiencing sol...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Supply Down on First Half of Year
U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels. Additionally, domestic consumption is also down. In Janua...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s courts have surprised the grain/oilseed industry by ruling that an arbitration award like a recent one on a FOSFA contract cannot be enforced in Turkey. This decision will be of concern to sellers and buyers using b...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the sixth straight week to put returns at their highest point in two years. The increase in margins came despite a pullback in beef values as packers were able to push fed cattle prices even lower and increase profits. The big concern for packers in the next 3-4...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
Outlook for the Fed Meeting This Week
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week with the make-up of the committee still up in the air. Governor Lisa Cook is questionable regarding her attendance after President Trump has sought her to ouster her on mortgage frau...
Chemo-phobia on Steroids
Notably, Congressional Republicans followed the demands of farm groups and added a provision in the latest government funding bill that some say would shield pesticide companies from lawsuits. Companies like Bayer have battled lawsuits for selling pesticides lawfully approved for use by regulat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest is virtually complete, with only isolated fields still being collected. Final output is expected to exceed 50 MMT. Attention now shifts to the 2025/26 crop, where planted area is projected at 7.8 million hectares — surpassed only by the 20...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises; Market Marches Its Own Beat
While there was some red flashing early in today’s trading session, by the close all major grain and oilseed contracts were in the green. Ahead of USDA’s September WASDE report, the trade was focused on yield cuts, which had also been the principal output of various private sector c...
WASDE Livestock: More Poultry and Less Red Meat
Despite record high yields from corn and soybeans in today’s WASDE, the forecast for red meat and broiler production in 2025 was reduced slightly from the August report. Both beef and pork production were down, while broiler production was up. For 2025, beef was down on lower fed cattle...
USDA’s Outlook for World Vegoils
The headline figures from the September WASDE were the U.S. corn and soybean yield and production figures, both of which were in line with expectations, and thus created the market’s ho-hum reaction. Somewhat lost in the day’s focus on primary crops, however, was the USDA’s up...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets rallied this week buyers extending coverage ahead of China’s Golden Week festival in 1-8 October. The rally came partly from an uptick in cargo demand but mostly from vessel supply disruptions stemming from the U.S. fees against Chinese vessels. This is causing Ch...
Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?
The trading before a major WASDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t. The volume trading corn, wheat and so...
Livestock Roundup: Inflation Is Up
The CPI released this morning showed that August prices increased 0.4 percent and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. For food at home, the index rose to 0.6 percent in August and for 0.3 percent for food away from home. The August data compares to a drop of -0.1 percent in July and 2.7 percen...
China’s Beef Outlook Amid a Shrinking Middle Class
Recently, the USDA FAS lowered its forecast for China’s 2025 beef consumption based on higher prices and the Middle Kingdom’s slowing economy. The USDA forecast consumption at 11.17 MMT, down 3 percent from 2024 and the first annual decline since 2017. The motivation behind th...
Remembering 9-11
Twenty-four years ago, on September 11, 2001, the U.S. experienced one of the most tragic and influential days in the nation’s history. The events of that day would spark great unity, and later division, as our nation grappled with terrorism’s fallout. The days and weeks immediately...
Market Commentary: Calm for the Day but Geopolitics Hint at Looming Volatility
The CBOT was solidly in the red on Wednesday while cattle futures regained some of their former strength. Markets had to process multiple headlines at the national/international political level, which led to some mild risk-off trade. Mostly, however, for grains, the looming WASDE dominated the...
Wheat from the Chaff; Europe Gets Squeezed
Wheat from the Chaff An agricultural meeting in Arkansas last week drew 400 to 500 farmers, a much larger group than expected at harvest time. They vented their angst over low commodity prices, high input costs, and consequently low profitability. One estimate from bankers is that farm bankrupt...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 1–5 September 2025 Bearish sentiments prevailed across both the European and Asian parts of Russia. The market is under pressure as stocks and yields are better than expected especially in Volga Valley and Black Soil region. Siberia and Urals harvesting campaign is...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The U.S. is not the only country suffering from tight cattle supplies and rising beef values, as the EU is battling the same problem. Across the EU, there is a shortage of slaughter cattle that continues to intensify and drive prices higher. Germany is seeing slightly greate...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Two Markets: Grains Consolidate While Cattle Correction Accelerates
Note: WPI’s data supplier for futures pricing and data experienced a significant outage on Tuesday, 9 September. All prices/quotes in this article are believed to be correct, but clients should double-check values before acting on any information contained herein. The ag markets sho...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Venting Hypocrisy; Xi – Trump Meeting; Say Cheese Please
Venting Hypocrisy At a BRICS meeting this past weekend, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva characterized President Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of “blackmail.” The formal definition of blackmail involves demanding benefit from someone in exchange for not reveali...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan flooding reportedly damaged as much as 30 percent of wheat stocks in some areas, especially eastern Punjab. Local wheat prices are said to be up by 40 percent with further increases expected. Trade reports say that due to...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the fifth straight week and added about $68/head in profits to put returns to processing back in a very healthy range. Margins are now around $80/head, which is on part with the 2020-2015 average. The increase in margins comes as beef prices hover near all-time...
Market Commentary: Technical Momentum Shifts at Odds with Fundamentals
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with technical factors driving short covering and some cautious fresh long buying. There wasn’t much from a fundamental standpoint to drive the move, but the technical picture is firming for most commodities. Corn saw substantial follow-through...
USG Closure; Ag Gets Special Treatment; Policy Shorts
USG Closure Congressional Democrats are debating whether they should force the U.S. government into closure at the end of this month when the budget (continuing resolution) expires. Back in March, a handful of Democratic U.S. senators joined with the Republicans in ensuring funding through 30 S...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week’s rainfall covered much of Argentina’s western wheat-growing region, improving prospects for cereals there. Still, 27.3 percent of the area now shows excess water — up from 7 percent the prior week — mainly in the east and south, where fungal diseas...
Japan–U.S. Trade Deal Implemented
The U.S.-Japan trade deal is now in place. It provides for a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering from Japan. For goods that were subject to tariffs less than 15 percent will now face higher duties at 15 percent, but goods that faced duties of 15 percent or higher will not increase. The tar...
WPI U.S. State Soybean Yield and Production Forecasts
Following WPI’s discussion on Friday of state-level corn yield and production estimates, we offer the following outlook for the U.S. soybean crop on a state-by-state basis. Like corn, the size and yield potential of the 2025 U.S. soybean crop is of increasing debate with the USDA’s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders breaking a three-week trend of net short covering in the ag space as managed money traders expanded their almost-neutral positions. The expansion of short holdings came primarily from selling across the three soy complex contracts and from...
Market Commentary: Ending on a Sour Note
The weak jobs report sent most economic indices lower, except for gold. The dollar slumped lower despite the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. Corn, soybeans and some wheat contract teased higher at the start of the session but they couldn’t hold. There was yet another new contr...
Post-Labor Day Look at Pork and Beef Markets
With Labor Day behind us, here is a look at the meat market going into fall. Total hog slaughter for last week was estimated at 2.391 million head, 1.5 percent lower than a year ago, making this the 15th consecutive week below year ago levels. Seasonal national average weights are starting to t...
WPI U.S. State Corn Yield and Production Forecasts
The size and yield potential of the 2025 U.S. corn crop is of increasing debate and importance with the USDA’s September WASDE – and, more importantly, grain harvest – just around the corner. Much of the focus of recent discussions has been the impact of dryness across parts o...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet this week with the bullish momentum of the past few weeks fading and allowing values to slip lower. September is usually a lackluster month for freight markets as shippers await the North American grain harvest. The lack of Chinese buying of American soybeans is nota...
Market Commentary: Some Rebounds, Some New Contract Lows
Most of the board traded in the red to start today’s trading session. There is too much corn and soybeans and not enough prospective buyers. All three major wheat contracts hit new lows today. Except for corn, major contracts are bearishly trading below major moving averages. Grower group...
Cultivated and Veggie Based Meat Alternatives
The closure of the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports due to New World Screwworm (NWS) has led to a 17 percent increase in beef prices in Mexico and a 12 percent increase in prices in the U.S. Cattle shipments to the U.S. have dropped more than 70 percent from January to July of this year...
Inflation Regime Changes and Commodity Market Outlooks
U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is at a crossroads, which is creating uncertainty for macroeconomic and commodity markets. Chief among these concerns is “sticky” inflation that has resisted the Fed’s efforts to control it, which is juxtaposed against a weakening labor market...
Market Commentary: Macro Malaise and Yield Expectations Turn CBOT Lower
The CBOT was almost entirely lower across the major ag markets on Wednesday with large supply expectations for the 2025 Northern Hemisphere grain and oilseed crops driving the weakness. More crop tours in the U.S. confirm large corn yields and high soybean pod counts/yield potential, while the...
Prop 12 Counterattack; Assault on International Organizations; Japan on Point
Prop 12 Counterattack To the great disappointment of key parts of the U.S. agriculture sector, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that California’s Prop 12 is constitutional, and that the state can establish its own rules on meat sold in the state regardless of its origin. The sect...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 25 – 29 August 2025 Bearish sentiments prevail on the Russian market. Most likely the bottom price levels are near for most of the grains except corn whose season started in September. Bearish trend is a tradition for this part of the season as harvesting is un...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the fourth straight week and once again added about $100/head in profits. Margins are now around $15/head, still low by post-2010 standards but an absolutely massive improvement from recent losses. The increase in margins comes as beef prices have approached new...
Market Commentary: Court Ruling Rattles Markets; Corn Rallies on Export Demand
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the holiday-shortened trading week with Friday’s ruling that President Trump’s tariffs may be illegal throwing ag and other markets into confusion. The ruling makes unclear the outlook for negotiating further trade deals – or even continuing...
SCO versus West
Instead of focusing on foes, the transatlantic alliance needs to remediate itself. Media reactions to this past weekend’s Shanghai Cooperation Council was telling. The New York Times was shocked that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “friends.” CNN called it “stark op...
Appellate Court Rules Against Tariffs; Credit Ratings Uncertain
On 28 May, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered that the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on 2 April be vacated. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Feder...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Except for the CBOT futures market, global wheat values were lower last week as larger harvest expectations weighed on market sentiment. With forecasts growing for the 2025/26 crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada, there seems no shortage of wheat supplies this year, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s cereal production in 2025 has improved due to better rainfall, according to the FAO, with wheat production up by 8.7 percent to 1.25 MMT and barley production up by 26.7 percent to 380,000 MT. Cereals imports for 2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
For the third straight week, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The move came primarily from continued short covering in the soy complex, with modest buying activity in wheat and corn. Funds are now essen...
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 1 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Tuesday, 2 September. ...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity
Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the grea...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets continued to strengthen this week, this time with the Supramax and Panamax sectors in the lead. Improved grain demand off the U.S. East Coast and supported values, alongside stronger interest in coal from South America. Baltic coal demand was also said to be &ldqu...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
U.S. and Canadian Livestock Inventories
Yesterday, NASS and Statistics Canada released the 1 July cattle inventory in the two countries. Combined, the inventory was 106.1 million head, which was down to 99 percent of 2023 (the USDA suspended the July inventory report in 2024 due to budget constraints) and down to 92.4 percent of 2020...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the third straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits on fresh record highs in the beef market. Margins are now around -$80/head, still very low by post-2010 standards but a sharp improvement from recent losses. The broad strength across beef markets &m...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize markets falling back after their recent rally while Panamax and Supramax values continue to firm. The Atlantic and Pacific markets saw diverging trends with the former seeing generally steady trade (except for spot positions) while the latter...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Oil Cost and Input Forecast
According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. petroleum production is forecast to hit 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 due primarily to improved well productivity. Increased supply will lower prices in 2026 and result in a fall in output to 13.28 million bpd in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Shows Protein Production Mostly Down
Red meat and poultry production total estimates were down for August in the latest WASDE report. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.926 billion pounds, which was 262 million pounds less than July on lower slaughter and relatively lighter dressed carcass weights. Steer prices were...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 August 2025 The speed of the harvesting campaign was the key price driver. Improved harvesting pace in the Centre and Black Soil regions made most of the grain prices plummet except for the best milling quality wheat. This is understandable as excessive rains...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
A Look at Inflation and Tariffs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI for July this morning. The CPI was up 0.2 percent for the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year. The rate was down from 0.3 percent in June and steady with the year-over-year of 2.7 percent at the end of June. However, the core CPI, whi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry announced that the planting of wheat and barley will be “severely reduced” due to low water reserves. Barley planting is going to be almost totally stopped. Vegetable growing and drip-...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Livestock Round Up: Trade Update
The beef sector experienced a week of record-breaking prices, and depressed packer margins for the week ending 1 August. Live cattle were a record $244.41 per hundredweight (cwt) for Choice steers, a $48 jump compared to the same week last year, while the cutout dropped $5.22 per pound and by m...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 July – 1 August 2025 The harmonizing of July old crop and new crop pricing is coming to an end. As harvesting continues with a delay, prices are volatile depending on the region. Delayed harvest often causes bullish sentiments in some individual regions but press...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka’s cereal imports in 2025 are seen increasing by about 10 percent to 1.6 MMT, mainly wheat as the country is not a wheat producer. The first maize crop of 2025 was good and is about 7 percent higher than average &nd...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The dry bulk market rally of the past two weeks has ended with rates turning softer this week. The Capesize sector – which lead the recent rally – is now leading the way lower with the Panamax sector in tow. The reason for the weaker rates is that fresh cargo...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Livestock Roundup: Cage-Free Egg Trend Complicates HPAI Recovery
USDA released its Egg Products report yesterday. Shell eggs broken totaled 199 million dozen during June 2025, down 2 percent from June 2024, but 2 percent above the 194 million dozen broken during May. During calendar year 2025 through June, shell eggs broken totaled 1.15 billion dozen, down 1...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 July 2025 During the fourth week of the new 2025/26 season, the export market was still the driving force behind pricing patterns. Harvesting entered into the active phase filling the needs on the market to the brim. As a result, domestic prices plummeted. T...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) may not be able to buy grain from Ukraine as it could be added to the blacklist. Ukraine says that the company has purchased wheat from Russia that was harvested in Russia occupied ar...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell $68/head last week and marked the third straight week of declines to end near -$220, which is back among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit for weaker margins was an $6/cwt pullback in the Choice cutout and broader beef markets while fed cattle prices ral...
Market Commentary: Weather Overrides Trade Deal; Cattle Hit New Highs on Tight Inventories
The big news for Monday’s ag market trade wasn’t the U.S.-EU trade deal, but rather continued favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest that will boost corn and soybean yield potential to record or near-record levels. The weather has private analysts boosting yield expectations by sever...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...