Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 May)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$208/head last week, down $24 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices continued to outpace wholesale beef values. The Choice cutout held near $389/cwt, but fed cattle prices climbed to nearly $259/cwt, extending the seasonal squeeze on packer spreads...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Policy Potpourri
Tax Policy Teed Up The debate over taxes on billionaires is heating up a larger fight over tax policy for the next U.S. Congress. This is good news because a fight solely over whether the wealthy are evil overlooks many larger issues plaguing the system. The journalist Josh Barro says that ever...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 11 May)
Update for 6 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Solid Jobs Report, but the Devil is in the Details
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, beating the consensus expectation for a gain of 65,000. Payroll gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 16,000, resulting in a net gain of 99,000, including revisions. The largest increases in April were health care and social a...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Livestock Round Up: Summer Grilling Season and Exports
It is now May, the kick-off of the retail meat demand surge, and a shift in the types of products. There are a variety of events that result in a notable spike in spending. First, just passed, is Cinco de Mayo, on 5 May, in which shoppers seek out such items as taco fixings and ready-to-heat me...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$184/head last week, down $84 from the prior week as sharply higher fed cattle prices outpaced a modest rebound in the Choice cutout. The cutout firmed to $388/cwt, but fed cattle prices surged to nearly $255/cwt, continuing to compress packer spreads despit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
House MAHA Hearing on State Laws in Energy and Commerce Committee
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health held a hearing on legislative proposals concerning food regulation and oversight. The hearing was focused on a wide range of bills, in keeping with the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda, ranging from anti–plant-based dairy produc...
China Market Analysis
Decline of China Ag Import Market The media has focused on China’s self-sufficiency effort in agriculture and its implications. In a largely political statement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the Trump Administration wants to broaden the agricultural imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt and Algeria, in addition to Israel, are being monitored by Ukraine as possible destinations for grain taken by Russia from occupied Ukrainian regions. In April, Egypt had said that it would “stop accepting such shipmen...
Market Commentary: Weather and Biofuels Drive CBOT Strength as Geopolitical Risk Builds
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. launches naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks UAE oil infrastructure, escalating geopolitical risk and supporting energy and broader commodity markets Biofuel demand entering uncharted territory, with soyoil valuation increasingly di...
Ag and Trade Paradigm Shifts
The Middle East is said to be undergoing a transformation as economic priorities transcend security concerns. This is evidenced by diversification away from oil and the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Meanwhile, the Palestine issue has been deprioritized, and Iran has emerged as more destabili...
E15 Plans: House Vote and Addition to Farm Bill Package for Senate
All eyes are shifting to the Senate following the House passage of a farm bill last Thursday. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas) is targeting the end of May or early June for a bill markup. According to Boozman, the House “going ahead and passing something was re...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina In Argentina, after several weeks of intense and frequent rainfall, weather conditions have improved, with clear days, dry cold, and wind supporting both soil and grain drying. Harvest activity has resumed; however, producers continue to prioritize soybeans, limiting progress in...
Market Commentary: Mixed End to a Higher Week
The corn and soy complex closed higher, with the wheat market mixed, as winter wheat closed up but spring wheat and livestock ended lower. Part of the strength for corn and soybeans may have been a weather premium, as crop planting has started out fast but warm weather has been slow to develop...
GDP at Modest 2 Percent Growth
Real GDP grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the consensus expectation of 2.3 percent but above the 0.5 percent growth in Q4 2025. The GDP number matches the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial P...
Per Capita, What Do You Eat?
Reflect for a moment on what you eat. There is a lot of advice out there in the ether about what you should eat, but really, what do you currently eat and how much? The good people at the USDA have some data for you, to help you answer that question. USDA says that we eat quite a bit of meat. L...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Market Commentary: Inflation Climbs, Crude Hesitates, Grains Reset
Key Market Insights Macros: Inflation isn’t cooling — it’s moving higher again. March PCE inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) rose 0.7 percent month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.5 percent, the h...
Livestock Round Up: Farm Bill Includes Prop 12 Fix
An amendment to the U.S. House farm bill, aiming to remove the Save Our Bacon Act language in Section 12006 that would have stripped language to prohibit California’s Proposition 12, Massachusetts’ Question 3, and up to 500 state agricultural laws across the country, was blocked by...
Market Commentary: Biofuel Demand and Weather Risks Support Ag Markets Despite Fed Pause
What Matters Today... Fed holds rates steady as inflation uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict pressures equities and supports broader commodity risk premia Biofuel demand accelerating globally, with U.S. imports of used cooking oil and strong soyoil demand reinforcing upside across the soy c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 April 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grains market remained volatile with a broadly bullish undertone. However, it remains too early to determine whether this shift is being driven by geopolitical factors or short-term positioning. The market continues...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Score New Highs on Weather, Fund Buying
Weather concerns and the impacts of the war in Iran helped push wheat and corn to sharp gains Tuesday, with both markets blowing past key technical resistance levels. The weather is now coupled with geopolitical tensions that look increasingly hard to resolve, which is giving funds the perfect...
House Ag Appropriations Bill: Moving to Full Committee This Week
Congress is moving forward with its FY 2027 spending bills, while also still working to address FY 2026 funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which is still in a shutdown. The House Agriculture-FDA Appropriations Subcommittee marked up and passed its FY 2027 bill. The House bill prov...
China Market Analysis
The overarching concern for China is that the rising cost of energy will reduce global trade demand at the same time that countries are becoming more protectionist. Trump Visit to China President Trump’s visit to China is in just over two weeks, though some question whether the trip...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisian researchers have been able to fully sequence the genomes of two local durum wheat types that have been grown in Tunisia for generations. They say that this “could be the key to developing more climate-resistant duru...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$100/head last week, up $28 from the prior week as the Choice cutout stabilized following its brief post-Easter decline while fed cattle prices eased modestly. The cutout firmed to $384/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $246/cwt, allowing packer margins to...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long position across the major ag futures contracts after a two week break as deteriorating negotiations in the Middle East and the emergence of weather concerns triggered risk-on buying. Funds bought 40,000 contracts (4.7 percent) to their...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets’ Two Key Factors Increasingly Bullish
The big picture for commodity markets is that imperfect weather and the lack of a peace deal in the Middle East are mandating that traders keep risk premia in prices. All other developments in ag futures stem in some way from these two factors, though the details of how, exactly, these factors...
Farm Bill on Thursday
The House will vote on the farm bill this Thursday. This afternoon, the House Rules Committee is meeting to consider the rule for the House’s consideration of the farm bill, specifically determining which amendments can and cannot be offered. There are a number of controversial amendments...
Anxiousness and Petulance; Calling a Spade; Trade Talk Environment; MAHAHA Farm Bill
Anxiousness and Petulance The U.S. war with Iran has come down to endurance. Washington sees Iran getting squeezed as the blockade eventually causes Iran’s whole oil system to back up and be forced into shutdown. It is estimated that Kharg Island’s storage will be capped out in 12&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Intermittent rains of varying intensity continue to disrupt Argentina’s corn harvest across key agricultural regions. Dry windows have not been sufficient to improve field conditions or reduce grain moisture, keeping progress slow and prompting many producers to prioritize...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week and a Mixed Outlook
This is the limbo period between the expectations and reality of a new crop going into the ground. Prices gyrate in a narrow range, awaiting something more definitive than planting “intentions.” The bears see a planting pace off to a quick start, the bulls see ground that in many pl...
Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation Hearings and Policy Directions
Kevin Warsh, formerly a member of the Federal Reserve Board, has been nominated by President Trump to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Trump has long been critical of current Chair Jerome Powell, even opening a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into the handling of cost overruns...
E15: What Does It Mean?
Previous administrations—including that of President Donald Trump—have promoted domestic consumption of corn and soybeans through expanded biofuel mandates and subsidies. The original framework for this policy was the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which required the...
Market Commentary: War Sustains Wheat; Corn Up Fifth Day
The Middle East truce is a rough one and the uncertainty spiked oil prices and the dollar again for another day. The wheat market has droughty conditions in the U.S., but globally there is pressure on a crop that gets both its fertilizer and a chunk of its demand from this volatile region. ...
Rotisserie Chicken Proposed to be Allowed Under SNAP
Senators Jim Justice (D-West Virginia), John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania), Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia), and Michael Bennet (D-Colorado) introduced the Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act, which would allow Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants to purchase hot rotisserie...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and drough...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Risk, Not Enough Conviction
Key Market Insights Markets aren’t trading fundamentals right now—they’re pricing risk. The Middle East remains the center of gravity, and the latest developments point to a situation that is not escalating—but not resolving either. That’s a difficult environment...
Functional Dysfunction; Out of the Frying Pan
Functional Dysfunction Europe has contended that Donald Trump’s attempt to address the decades-long harm caused by Iran’s theocratic regime is “not our war.” The Continent is in an expensive energy crisis because of the Iran war, but moral angst is the only respons...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 April 2026 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable during the week, pressured by ample global wheat supply, strong international competition, and a firmer ruble. To maintain competitiveness—particularly against Ukraine and Kazakhstan—the gov...
European Market Analysis
Key Takeaways: Wheat markets are supported by U.S. weather risk, though EU fundamentals remain bearish on strong supply, weak demand, and currency pressure. Upside is limited, with global strength unlikely to drive sustained EU gains. Maize markets are firming on Brazil weather risk and tighte...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Weather, Biofuel Demand Prospects
For much of the period since the U.S.–Iran war started, commodity markets have been buoyed by macroeconomic “risk on” buying fueled by the geopolitical risk and crude oil’s rally. Recently, the impact of this risk and crude oil on the ag markets has faded, leaving crop f...
China Market Analysis
Economy The National Bureau of Statistics says China’s GDP grew 5 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026. Other sources contend that the Iran war has helped pull the economy out of deflation and that it is now in the middle stages of a multi-year correction. The data for the agriculture sector...
Farm Bill Amendments
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has been working with Republican leadership to build momentum for a farm bill floor vote, likely expected the week of 27 April, but that depends on other must-pass legislative priorities. The House Rules Committee meets...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has a Saudi Arabia-backed irrigation program that it says will increase wheat production through improved water use efficiency. The program is part of Pakistan’s Green Pakistan Incentive. Saudi Arabia is said to hav...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further, falling to -$129/head last week, down $38 from the prior week as a continued seasonal softening in the Choice cutout pressured returns. The cutout declined to $382/cwt, extending its post–Easter pullback, while fed cattle prices held near $248/cwt...
Market Commentary: SOH Confusion Persists, but Ags Focus on Weather, Exports
The situation in the Persian Gulf remains as volatile as ever since it started on 28 February with a supposed weekend peace agreement dissolving into the U.S. Navy firing upon an Iranian vessel. The vessel was trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly did not heed commands to h...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Iran Peace Talks on Again, Off Again: Impacting Fertilizer
President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels. Araghchi’s post said the strait will stay open for the remainder of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump said, “the Str...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Rains continued across Argentina’s core agricultural regions, with additional heavy accumulations keeping rural roads largely impassable and further slowing the corn harvest. Harvest progress remains limited at approximately 3 percent per week. At the same time, farmers are...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week as signs of hope in the Middle East triggered an exit of geological “risk on” trades from commodity markets. Funds sold 40,000 contracts (4...
Market Commentary: Rebound for Corn, Beans on Iran News; Wheat Declines
New variables specifically in the agricultural markets were light today, but the Iran war news hit some markets like a tsunami. The war and Iran’s chokehold on global oil supplies have subjugated economies for nearly seven weeks with outsized petrol prices. Everything became distorted aro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more of capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 99 percent of last year. The steer and steer calf inventory was down slightly from a year ago at 7.256 million head,...
Market Commentary: More Wheat Weather Premium, but Weakness Elsewhere
There was generally modest volume today, with the exception of wheat, which was also uniquely higher on the day. New highs for the calendar year were printed in HRW as the fledgling crop is about to have the double-whammy of freezing temperatures added to drought as the welcoming committee for...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 April will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.6 million head. The big line item to watch agai...
Market Commentary: Markets Discount Risk as Grains Quietly Hold Ground
Key Market Developments Macros & Energy: Outside markets continue to trade in a tug-of-war between escalation and de-escalation — and crude oil is right at the center of it. Overnight, crude pulled back toward $87 as headlines pointed to a potential resumption of peace negotiat...
War Impacts; Taxes and Tariffs
War Impacts May soybeans are now within a penny of their value two weeks ago, and May corn is back up to within half a percent of its price at that time. The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq hit a record high. The cost of gasoline is about 15 percent higher th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 April 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grains market was volatile. Domestic sentiment remained bullish, supporting an upward trend; however, the export market in the south stayed bearish. Given Russia’s export-driven structure, weak export demand is...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Falling Conditions; Cattle Surge to New Records
The CBOT received several pieces of key fundamental information on Tuesday, including updated production figures from CONAB, the results of the USDA’s Monday Crop Progress report, and fresh export sales of corn to Mexico. The result was that wheat popped higher on growing concerns for yie...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dalien soybean futures and spot prices have defied seasonal trends since October 2025. They have been rising due to structural shortages of high-protein soybeans. Liu Mei, soybean analyst for Shanghai Steel Network, blames the situation on a poor harvest last year in the south, a delay...
Congress Coming Back to Busy Agenda
The House and Senate are returning from their two-week Easter recess period with a busy agenda ahead. While the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown has now hit the two-month mark, a plan is emerging to use reconciliation to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs a...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria is reported to be the main destination for Russia’s shipments of Ukraine grain from occupied regions. Egypt had been the main destination, but it has now stopped buying grain from occupied areas. Syria and Ukraine plan...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week to -$85/head, down from -$17/head the prior week, as continued strength in fed cattle prices again outpaced weakening boxed beef values. The Choice cutout declined $5.14/cwt to $386.41/cwt, while fed cattle prices rose $3.78/cwt to $388.36/cwt,...
Market Commentary: Political Tail Still Wagging the Market Dog
Politics are once again the tail wagging the dog in commodity markets. U.S. negotiations with Iran fell apart (again) over the weekend after Iran refused to agree to a permanent end of its nuclear weapons program. Rather than a return to the recent status quo, however, markets are adjusting to...
War Impacts
Commodity markets were mixed today, while Wall Street traded higher after President Trump said the Iranians still want to negotiate after he closed the Strait of Hormuz. The result is baffling to some, but the market reflects investor expectations about future corporate earnings and growth rath...
JBS Strike Settled, Beef Sector Still Under Inflationary Pressure
JBS USA announced on Sunday that it has reached a new collective bargaining agreement with UFCW Local 7, allowing the Greeley beef production facility to return to normal operations. The plant had been on strike since 16 March, with approximately 3,800 workers affected. The plant has the capaci...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN With a rainy start to April and excess moisture across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest has slowed, advancing just 2 percentage points over the past week to reach 21 percent of the total area. Rainfall during the second and third dekads of March was significa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts, ending a ten-week streak of net buying. Funds sold 62,000 contracts (6.4 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week with selling in corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat respon...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Factors Equals Mixed Day
There are so many conflicting narratives between war and peace, rain and drought, hopes and fears, that it was a mixed day of trading on Friday, and a mixed outcome for the week. For today, corn suffered its sixth lower day in the past seven trading sessions. There was high volume in soyb...
Inflation Ramps Up on Energy and Food Away from Home
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, showing that it rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, month over month, after being up 0.3 percent in February, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Energy was the...
Wheat’s Fall from Grace
Buried in the many mountains of USDA data last week was the March 2026 Prospective Plantings report. There you will find one specific figure among the many that was a record: USDA’s lowest ever prospective plantings estimate for wheat. It was not a surprise. U.S. wheat plantings and harve...
Transportation Perspectives - 9 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals Replace War Trading
Geopolitics has proven that it beats weather as a volatility driver, but agricultural markets and financials returned to fundamentals today. The truce/non-truce/truce had its influences, with the soy sector following oil higher, but wheat traded down on stocks reports while corn buyers’ e...
Livestock Round Up: Red Meat Production Down, Broilers Up
USDA released the April WASDE today with new 2026 meat production forecasts, changed from the March release. Beef is now projected at 25.79 billion pounds, down 20 million from March, mostly on lower first-half steer and heifer slaughter. Higher cow slaughter will partially offset the reduced...
Quick Hits: Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins Update
Ethanol Ethanol production margins continue to experience a counter-seasonal surge, with the energy market rally driving the bulk of the move. Prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, U.S. ethanol margins were already trending above year-ago levels by $0.10-0.20/gallon...
Market Commentary: Energies Collapse on Ceasefire News but Grains Reclaim Early Losses
Once again, Trump, Iran, and the Middle East were the hub around which the CBOT trade revolved on Wednesday. Late Tuesday, the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, just days after President Trump threatened to escalate attacks against the Middle Eastern country. In the annou...
Policy Deference; Reasserting Article I; Two-Tailed Dog; EU Imports; WTO Skepticism
Policy Deference The bilateral trade balance is a narrow way to look at the relative relationship between two countries. The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is seeking to ignore its own regulations that guide the application of the General Law on Adequate and Sustainable...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt is increasingly finding itself caught between Russia and Ukraine, in a battle for supplying its domestic wheat markets. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is facing political pressure and wooing from both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Ze...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 March - 3 April 2026 Market overview The Russian grains market remained broadly stable during the week, with a slightly firmer undertone. Export values were mostly steady, while the domestic market moved modestly higher. Broader geopolitical tensions had only a limited...
Market Commentary: Risk is Priced In — But Not Yet Believed
Key Market Developments Macro/Geopolitics: Markets are staring down a deadline tonight as President Donald Trump pushes Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM Eastern. So far, Iran has rejected the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal — reportedly delivered through Pakistan &mdash...
China Market Analysis
Hormuz Strategy China has been assisting Iran under a 25-year strategic agreement that has 90 percent of Iranian crude going to the Middle Kingdom. Iran is not currently blocking tankers passing through the Strait and on their way to China. At the same time, China is providing Iran with dual-us...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has said that it will no longer import any shipments of grain exported by Russia from the occupied areas of Ukraine. Egypt has increased its purchase price for local wheat by about 11 percent in order to increase domestic pu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply to -$17/head from $120/head the prior week, as rising fed cattle prices more than offset a modest decline in the Choice cutout. Fed cattle prices increased $12.92/cwt from the prior week while the cutout slipped $3.24/cwt, compressing gross margins and pushi...
Market Commentary: The Long-Run Draws Near
The CBOT markets were surprisingly insulated from a jump in crude oil that started the week. Crude oil futures rallied to $115/brl - their highest levels since the earliest days of the U.S.-Iran war - on rhetoric from the White House that signaled an escalation in the conflict. While the oil he...
Farmland Consolidation
Under the theory of economies of scale, the size of farms, like that of all industries, should increase over time due to improvements in productivity. Farmers themselves understand that the more land they farm, the greater their output and, thus, the larger their potential incomes. Government p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to advance nationwide, gaining 3.8 percentage points on the week to reach 19 percent of planted area. Fieldwork maintained a solid pace across most of the agricultural region, with the national average yield currently estimated at 8.53 MT/...
The President’s 2027 Budget Proposal
President Trump unveiled his FY2027 budget proposal on Friday. The President’s budget, which is largely for positioning purposes, poses a starting point for Congressional budget deliberations and proposes a 19 percent cut to the USDA and a massive 42 percent boost to Pentagon spending. Th...
Market Commentary: War and Easter Exit Strategy
There were a lot of moving parts on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, but liquidation and profit-taking may have been the strongest. A prolonged war and higher energy prices will impact consumption and inflation, while supporting biofuels. Storm systems may reduce some of the...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 2 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 6 April. ...
Poultry Production Rebounds on Heavier Weights
Through the week ending 21 March, U.S. broiler production remains well above year-ago levels, with total headcount surpassing 2.04 billion, a 3.63 percent increase compared to 2025. While overall supply levels continue to expand, the distribution across weight classes further highlights a prono...
Transportation Perspectives - 2 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscribe online after this date to...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Information — No Clear Direction
Key Market Developments Macro: Tension Without Direction Markets are trading the tension between escalation and resolution — and neither side has control. Both equities and commodities tested key technical levels this week before reversing sharply on headlines suggesting — at least...
AI Disaster; Fringe Opinions; NTE 40th Update
AI Disaster Opponents of artificial intelligence, like Senator Bernie Sanders (S-Vermont), warn that the technology risks the end of the human race. So-called AI “doomers” are campaigning to stall advancements out of precaution, mostly fearing adverse impacts on the labor force. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 March 2026 The Russian grains market was stable to slightly firmer during the week. Export activity and port trading remained slow, while the domestic market and inland trade reflected firmer farmer price expectations. Even so, gains were limited, and the broa...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on USDA Data, Hopes for End to Middle East Conflict
Except for lean hog futures, the CBOT and CME markets were higher on Tuesday in a combination of bullish factors. The day’s strength started after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hor...
Lots To Do for Congress When They Return to Washington
Congress is in recess this week ahead of the Easter and Passover holidays, with much yet to do, including ending a partial shutdown and considering the “skinny” farm bill. Congress is scheduled to return on 13 April, though that may change, especially if the Homeland Security fundin...
China Market Analysis
SPS Barriers India’s rice exports to China have been accelerating, but Beijing recently rejected three shipments of non-Basmati rice, citing genetically modified content. The technical rejection is notable because China’s Certification and Inspection Group had already pre-cleared th...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2026 wheat imports are seen increasing by about 8.3 percent to 2.4 million MT, according to the FAO, as a result of the 16 percent lower 2025 wheat crop — down to 4.4 MMT in 2025 from 5.2 MMT in 2024. Planting f...
March Grain Stocks Summary
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins eased slightly to $119/head, declining $7/head week over week as a modest softening in the cutout combined with a small increase in live cattle prices compressed margins. Despite the weekly pullback, margins remain sharply improved on a monthly basis (+$233/head), supported...
Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Downside Risk for Wheat into 2026/27
The current rally in wheat futures is widely known to be driven by fund buying in response to the conflict in the Middle East. Part of the price gains has also been motivated by concerns for the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains amid dry weather and the strong U.S. wheat export pace to date. What has...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Transportation Perspectives - 27 March
President Trump’s announcement on Monday this week that the U.S. would postpone any attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days increased hopes that a peaceful and quick resolution can be found to the war. Subsequent conflicting messaging from both sides has undermined these hopes,...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Cow-calf margins hit all-time record highs in 2025 as the industry benefited from the downstream impacts of record-breaking beef demand and the smallest beef cattle herd in decades. As WPI readers will know well, the resulting supply crunch boosted cattle prices across the production landscape...
Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 March 2026 During the second week of February, the Russian grains market showed a sharp divergence between domestic and export trends. The domestic market was slightly bullish but overall remained stable. In contrast, export market trading in RUB was mostly be...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
China Market Analysis
Balanced Trade Bilateral trade in both directions between the U.S. and China has slowed, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang told last week’s meeting of the China Development Forum 2026 that Beijing pledges balanced trade and greater openness. His country is seeking to reassure foreign investors...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has seen a sharp rise in wheat prices due to increased shipping costs and the 9 percent drop in the value of Egypt’s currency. Wheat prices in Egypt are said to be up by as much as $24/MT. Both ocean freight costs and...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved further, with estimated net returns increasing to $126/head from $48/head the prior week. The gains were driven by another firming in the choice beef cutout, which rose to $392.85/cwt, while fed cattle prices were largely stable. The resulting expansion in the sprea...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Transportation Perspectives - 20 March
As you probably guessed, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive market sentiment for energy markets and tanker vessel rates. While there have been several developments in the region this week, the big picture factors are the same: the Strait of Hormuz is all but sealed to ve...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 March 2026 Russia’s grain market turned firmer in the second week of March, led by stronger price action in Asian Russia, where domestic values continue adjusting higher toward neighboring Kazakh levels. By contrast, European Russia and the Black Sea rema...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
China Market Analysis
Bilateral Postponement The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is being delayed about “a month or so” at the request of Trump. He says he needs the time to focus on the war in Iran. Chinese leaders may also benefit from the extra time to assess the...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The Muslim month of Ramadan is expected to end around 19 March with the beginning of the Eid-al-Fitr holiday — the Eid holiday lasts up to five days depending on the country. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Transportation Perspectives - 13 March
The conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate developments in energy markets and crude oil or natural gas tanker vessels, but as time passes the conflict’s relatively minor impacts on the dry bulk and container sector are becoming clearer. After a short-lived jump, dry bulk freigh...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 March 2026 During the week of 02–06 March, the Russian grains market stabilized and showed early signs of recovery across most grains, while pulses remained weak. The developing bullish tone reflects geopolitical developments and movements in global commod...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Middle Eastern countries have imported an average of close to 29 million MT of grains and feed products per year over the past five years according to an Ag Perspectives report. These include wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, soymeal...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Transportation and Export Report - 5 March
As you might guess, it is all about the conflict in the Middle East this week when discussing anything connected to energy or freight markets. Rate estimates, fuel costs, and insurance premiums (if available) have all skyrocketed since the U.S. attacked Iran and Iran attacked 15 of its neighbor...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Livestock Round Up: Preview of Feedlot Placements and Changing Canada Dynamics
Feeder cattle sales were up over a year ago in February, but much of that was due to February 2025 sales being light. Still, the increase in activity bears watching, both for what it implies about feedlot placements and for herd rebuilding. In the four weeks ending February 27, total feed...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply last week but remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$206/head from the prior week’s extreme levels. The recovery was driven by a stronger boxed beef cutout, which rose to $371.62/cwt, while fed cattle prices moved lower on t...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Transportation and Export Report - 26 February
The start of 2026 has been the exact opposite of what dry bulk markets and traders expected at the end of 2025. Typically, the Lunar New Year and post-holiday demand lulls mean that Q1 freight rates are often the weakest of the year. This year, however, rates rallied sharply on unexpected deman...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On 20 February, Germany confirmed its first case of Newcastle disease in 18 years, after a commercial turkey flock in Neißemünde was found to be infected. Separately, Poland had two new flocks confirmed as being infected with the disease, as the country continues...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s 2026 winter crop planting started a little late due to a lack of rainfall, but this improved in January as rainfall caught up. Winter wheat and barley crops are expected to be good for the harvest later in 2026. 20...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply last week, with estimated net margins falling to -$330.80/hd, down $60.58/hd week over week. The Choice cutout held nearly flat at $365.62/cwt, but fed cattle prices continued to climb, with live steers at $246.91/cwt and dressed prices surging to $387.9...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains finally arrived across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, halting the crop deterioration seen in recent weeks. The core corn and soybean region benefited most, with some areas receiving up to 100 mm. However, localized damage from excess moisture, wind and hail affected a...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Transportation and Export Report - 19 February
Dry bulk ocean freight markets are once again seeing diverging trends across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Key to this divergence is the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which started last weekend and will last through 3 March. That is putting much of Asia on hold for trading and vessel inqui...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head. The total inventory on feed...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef complex margins weakened further in the week ending 14 February 2026, with estimated beef packer net margins sliding to -$270.22/hd (down $22.78/hd week over week) as higher cattle costs continued to outrun product values. The Choice cutout edged up to $365.30/cwt, but fed cattle prices mo...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Tariff Impacts; HPF: the New Climate Change
Tariff Impacts Calculating the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs is heavy fodder for economists. Many made predictions about their impacts long before the rubber even met the road. Predictions of a tariff-caused recession have been debunked, and there is little impact on inflation. Now...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 February 2026 The feature of the second week of February was appreciation of prices on the export platform, meaning regions in close proximity to seaports showed higher prices across all grains, including wheat, barley, corn and even peas. This is somewhat para...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU cattle markets remain relatively unchanged from recent weeks, with German and Austrian prices falling slightly amid carnival-period reduced interest. EU hog and pig markets have started to stabilize, with the “backlog” of market-ready animals largely cle...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
China Market Analysis
Corn/Feed USDA reports that Chinese domestic production of corn and wheat exceeds demand, but that barley is in a supply deficit and must be imported. China’s overall feed production is growing faster than its meat and egg output. China’s corn crop has been damaged by wetness, and i...
House Farm Bill Text Released
Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below. Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s grain harvest could go as high as 9.0 million MT in 2026, which would represent a doubling of last year’s drought-affected harvest. Rainfall is up by 34 percent over the average, while grain planting has incr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
President's Day
In observance of Presidents’ Day, both the CME/CBOT and our offices will be closed on Monday, 16 February. The next edition of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 17 February...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Transportation and Export Report - 13 February 2026
U.S. grain transportation markets are slowly recovering from the shocks of bitter cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System and from the surge in export demand. The latter is also causing strong rallies in ocean freight markets, particularly in the Atlantic basin. With g...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Margins and Distribution
The recent February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast beef production to increase in 2026 due to greater slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and heavier dressed weights, all of which will provide some relief to the beef market. Also, th...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Steady with an Outside Surprise
The U.S. created more new jobs in January than expected, especially in healthcare. And there was more ethanol produced last week than the market expected. Soyoil hit a new contract high, but South American production continues to look quite substantial. The mixed news produced mixed results, bu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further last week, with estimated net losses widening to -$247/head, extending the deterioration seen through late January. Boxed beef values were firmer last week, but gains failed to offset increases in fed cattle prices, resulting in additional margin compression...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 February 2026 The primary development during the first week of February was the allocation of grain export quotas for the balance of the 2025/26 marketing season. A total of 213 companies received export rights, compared with 219 companies in 2025. The majority...
Market Commentary: WASDE Confirms Big Supply, Big Demand; Soybeans Gain on Brazil Quality
The headline numbers from the February WASDE – the South American production estimates – were mostly in line with expectations, which is to say the massive Brazilian soybean crop was found to be even more so. USDA increased its assessment of the Brazilian crop to a new record, which...
WPI Website Security Update - 10 February
On the morning of 9 February, WPI identified unauthorized activity on our website server. Upon discovery, we immediately secured the website and server, took the necessary and advisable steps to examine the environment for comprimises, and deployed the website to a new, secure server. Our...
New World Screwworm Facility in the U.S.
In June 2025, Secretary Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to enhance USDA’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate NWS. As part of that announcement, she also shared plans to build a sterile NWS fly dispersal facility in South Texas. That announcement was made on 30 January, when U...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dim Sums report that Chinese propaganda’s focus on soybean self-sufficiency has faded as Brazil has become the top foreign supplier. In short, dependence on a main rival for a staple crop was the problem. China’s self-sufficiency in soybeans in 2025 was 16.2 percent, versus...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s snowfall and rainfall have returned to more normal levels following last year’s drought, which reduced wheat production by about 13.7 percent and barley production by 25.9 percent. Experts point out that, whil...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower on Weather, Pre-WASDE Consolidation
Except for the red-hot soyoil market, the CBOT was mostly lower on Monday, with favorable South American weather and pre-WASDE position adjustment driving the day’s mentality. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled slightly lower Monday in either consolidative trade or a continuation of ch...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
After a very quiet prior week with limited activity, market conditions became significantly more active. Futures rallied early in the week after President Trump said he had spoken with Xi Jinping and that China agreed to buy up to 20 MMT of U.S. soybeans. China has already purchased around 12 M...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
WPI recently expanded our analysis of the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data to include reports on the regime (trending, cyclical, or transition) of each commodity we include. This addition will make it easier for clients to draw actionable inferences from the data that can support trading...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
Herrington Becomes President of World Perspectives, Inc.
Washington, DC—World Perspectives, Inc. (WPI) is a leading agricultural market analysis and consulting firm making a leadership transition marking an important milestone in the firm’s development. After years of distinguished service as President & CEO, Gary Blumenthal has stepp...
Market Commentary: Soybean Spillover Rides Another Day
There was high-volume trading in soybeans again today after hitting record levels yesterday. The enthusiasm carried over to corn and soymeal as well, and there was good volume trading in soyoil contracts. There is understandable skepticism that China would pay 80 cents/bushel more for U.S. soyb...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Livestock Roundup: Dairy Herd
The U.S. dairy herd in 2025 expanded at the fastest pace since the 1950s and reached a level that has not occurred since the early 1990s. Based on the USDA monthly milk production report for December, the milk cow herd totaled 9.567 million head, up from the prior month and 212,000 head from a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further, with estimated net losses widening to -$233/head. While boxed beef values continued to firm, gains were outpaced by higher fed cattle prices, pressuring gross margins despite stable carcass weights and drop values. Packer profitability remains well below se...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge as Trumps Says China in for Another 8 MMT
There are days in the commodity markets when it feels like nothing is happening in any market, and then there are days when it feels like everything is happening in every market. Today was one of the latter days. The big headline in ag trade Wednesday was the soybean futures and broader s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Large supplies and strong exports of wheat from the Black Sea and Russia continue to cap upside potential for wheat. U.S. and EU markets rallied last week until late in the week, when they hit a combination of technical pressure and increased competition from the Black Sea.&...
Disingenuous Ag Letter
Leaders of the U.S. House and Senate Agriculture Committees received a letter (See Attached) yesterday from more than two dozen “former” private sector leaders of the American agriculture sector. Many previously represented farmers who have been staunch supporters of President Trump...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Stocks, Tax Credits; Livestock Futures Gain on Cash Trade
Soyoil was the upside leader in the CBOT’s Tuesday trade after the USDA’s December soyoil stocks figure came in well below expectations. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its proposal on the 45Z Clean Fuel tax credits, which were broadly friendly for ag interests...
China Market Analysis
No. 1 Central Document China has released its No. 1 document for 2026, which calls for strengthening the country’s agriculture sector and rural linkages, while enriching rural areas as top priorities. The plan envisions up to 500 special demonstration zones deploying technology and deep r...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations. Last Friday, the Senate passed an amended appropriations bill for the remaining FY26 funding shortfall. The measure included a two-week continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget, allowing more time for lawmakers to negotiate further Immigration a...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Israel will raise import tariffs on wheat from Russia and Ukraine under a new tariff agreement with the United States, a move expected to increase U.S. wheat imports. According to reports, the Israeli government will subsidize U.S...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Strong Dollar; Cattle Surge on Inventory Numbers
The CBOT turned lower to start the week with some of the profit-taking that defined Friday’s end-of-month trade continuing into the first day of February. Also pressuring grain futures was an improved forecast for Argentina, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and sharply lower energy markets. Th...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Meat Producer Price Index
Wholesale meat prices fell across the board in December, seasonally adjusted, according to Producer Price Index (PPI) data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The overall PPI for final demand, which measures the end stage of production, rose 0.5 percent last month, driven by high...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South America Weather Overview Argentina received some rainfall this week, but precipitation was concentrated in the northeast and western regions, with accumulations well below crop requirements. Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to rise over the coming days, with highs between 36°C...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds building their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds added 108,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position last week, with buying in soyoil and CBOT wheat driving most of that increase. The...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Cracking the Egg Price Mystery
Egg prices have been through a volatile 18 months, rallying sharply in LH 2024 and into early 2025 as bird flu decimated the U.S. layer flock. In early 2025, the U.S. layer flock for table eggs specifically fell to at least a 10-year low, at 286.4 million birds, down about 16 percent from the 2...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report will be issued on Friday. The outlook calls for the cattle herd to be 86.4 million head, down from 86.7 million head last January, making it the seventh consecutive decline since 2019 and putting the cattle herd down 2 percent from the previous low point i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Thailand Soy Tariffs Update
Thailand’s market is now officially reopened to soybean and soymeal imports as the government has resolved a lapse in tariff policy that caused import duties to default to prohibitively high levels earlier this month. On 27 January, the Thai Cabinet approved the continuation of its market...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses at -$185/head, little changed from the prior week. Rising boxed beef values continued to lag gains in fed cattle prices, keeping gross margins compressed despite incremental support from carcass weights and drop values. Rel...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Congressional Letter on Buy-Up Coverage Rule
USDA’s Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) published a new rule for crop insurance late last year, the Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule that eliminates buy-up coverage for prevented planting policies. The rule proposes to: Increase premium subsidies from 5 to 10 crop...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Macroeconomic markets remain especially uncertain and chaotic, and exchange-rate volatility is having a direct impact on grain trade. Pricing has been somewhat inconsistent this week amid the currency moves, as exporters and buyers alike try to navigate the volatility. Over...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
Free Trade Style; 30,000 Feet; Technology Evolution; Taxing Food
Free Trade Style Brussels realizes the mistake it made when it included agriculture in its free trade negotiations with the Mercosur countries. Proponents bragged that it would remove most tariffs on EU–Latin American food trade and concurrently protect Europe’s geographic indicator...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN As of today, 93 percent of the expected area has been planted, representing a year-on-year delay of more than five percentage points. Some late-planted fields may remain unseeded due to a lack of soil moisture. Rainfall remains absent, while persistently high temperatures are increasing cr...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
China Market Analysis
Economy and Diet The decline in China’s population, with the birthrate falling 17 percent to its lowest since 1949, is likely having some impact on total food consumption. Slower-than-reported economic growth may also be a factor, as 2025 saw lower agricultural prices and fewer imports. M...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq is reported to be facing the “driest year in modern history” due to drought and greatly reduced water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey. Forecasters say the 2025/26 wheat crop could be down by...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
European Market Analysis
Regional News In the first two weeks of 2026, 10 countries in the EU reported a combined total of 42 outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry farms. The virus was detected on 17 farms in Poland, five each in Germany, France, and Hungary, and four in Belgium. Bulgaria, Denmark,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 January 2026 The first week of January is typically quiet for trading and logistics as Russia observes Orthodox Christmas. Activity remained subdued, although the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian war continued to shape market sentiment. Both sides carried out airst...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
China Market Analysis
Beef China’s new import safeguard on beef continues to stir the market. Its largest impact is on the biggest supplier of protein, Brazil. Suppliers in that country say they will have to reduce production and slaughter capacity. Meanwhile, Ireland is pleased that Beijing has lifted a ban t...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
London based GAFTA – Grain and Feed Trade Association – advises that in 2024/25 they had 314 new mainly grain arbitrations and 43 appeals. 170 arbitrations were finalized while 46 were settled outside of arbitration. The average cost for an arbitration, under rule 125 for a GAFTA me...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Corn planting progress has reached nearly 90 percent of projected area. Almost 70 percent of the corn crops is going through the critical growth stage. Crops are beginning to experience a lack of wáter after many days of intense heat and wind. , Fields are starting to appear stresed...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 December 2025–02 January 2026 Russia’s grain market remained bearish during the final week of December, with most fundamentals continuing to pressure prices and preventing authorities from setting higher export duties. The country will remain heavily export...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
China Market Analysis
Donroe Doctrine The forced extradition of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Moduro has been variously framed to stop the flow of narcotics and obtain oil but the geopolitical implications are not lost on Beijing. It buys its petroleum from seven main suppliers, with Russia sanctioned, Iran in...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco has established its soft wheat import rebate program for 1 January to 30 April 2026. The actual amount of the import rebate is calculated on the average landed cost versus the government set reference price based on inform...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Happy New Year!
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forward to serving you in 2026! Please note that our next report will be issued on Friday, 2 January as the U.S. markets are closed for th...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Beef and Pork Past, Present and Future
USDA’s November slaughter data helps decode some of the outlook for 2026. There are the known knowns - cattle and hog numbers are down, weights are up, and the breeding inventory for cattle is growing while for hogs it remains constant. But stabilized dairy cow slaughter, lower sow slaugh...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
China Market Analysis
Grain Utilization Grain market prices have been cooling of late due to the prospects of a large South American crop, but China is also cited as an influence. Sinograin has been auctioning soybeans and it may also be releasing some of its reserves of corn into the market. Corn and wheat are bein...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Thursday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday. WPI wishes everyone a joyous and safe holiday. WPI will resume operations on Friday, 26 December. Note that Ag Perspectives will be providing ma...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
China Market Analysis
Soybean Auction Falters To make way for recent purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans, Sinograin has been auctioning state-owned reserves of soybeans imported in earlier years. At its second auction, sales fell to 62 percent of the volume offered, versus 77 percent in the first auction. And the avera...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained stable and bearish, with weak domestic and export demand limiting price gains. Trade activity was slow, and a strong ruble prompted the government to maintain export duties. Global wheat supply remains ample,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from December 2024, and up slightly from 1 September 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.95 million head, was down 1 percent from last year and up sligh...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa Black Sea port infrastructure on 23 December reportedly damaged a vessel carrying Ukrainian soybeans. The EU Commission raised its forecast of EU common wheat production to 134.4 MMT for 2025/26 and bumped th...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Safaga port, south on the Red Sea, will be expanded and improved as a result of an agreement between Egypt’s Al Dahra Agriculture and Abu Dhabi based AD Pors Group. There are plans to make Safaga into a regiona...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data
The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...
WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Beef Market Recap and Outlook
On 21 November, Tyson Foods, one of the largest beef packing companies in the United States, announced it will close its cattle slaughter facility in Lexington, Nebraska, and reduce its beef operations in Amarillo, Texas, down to a single, full-capacity shift. Based on estimated slaughter at bo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 13.1 percent week-over-week, reaching 73 percent of total area, with yields remaining above average and above earlier expectations. As a result, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its production estimate to 27.1 MMT, broadly in line with the Rosario Board of Trade&rsq...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk freight markets are mixed this week with pre-holiday trade driving diverging trends. The Capesize sector saw some strength, primarily in the Atlantic, with demand for Brazilian loadings driving the market. Panamax and Supramax markets, in contrast, saw weaker pricing as ballaster...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 May)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$208/head last week, down $24 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices continued to outpace wholesale beef values. The Choice cutout held near $389/cwt, but fed cattle prices climbed to nearly $259/cwt, extending the seasonal squeeze on packer spreads...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Policy Potpourri
Tax Policy Teed Up The debate over taxes on billionaires is heating up a larger fight over tax policy for the next U.S. Congress. This is good news because a fight solely over whether the wealthy are evil overlooks many larger issues plaguing the system. The journalist Josh Barro says that ever...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 11 May)
Update for 6 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Solid Jobs Report, but the Devil is in the Details
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, beating the consensus expectation for a gain of 65,000. Payroll gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 16,000, resulting in a net gain of 99,000, including revisions. The largest increases in April were health care and social a...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Livestock Round Up: Summer Grilling Season and Exports
It is now May, the kick-off of the retail meat demand surge, and a shift in the types of products. There are a variety of events that result in a notable spike in spending. First, just passed, is Cinco de Mayo, on 5 May, in which shoppers seek out such items as taco fixings and ready-to-heat me...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$184/head last week, down $84 from the prior week as sharply higher fed cattle prices outpaced a modest rebound in the Choice cutout. The cutout firmed to $388/cwt, but fed cattle prices surged to nearly $255/cwt, continuing to compress packer spreads despit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
House MAHA Hearing on State Laws in Energy and Commerce Committee
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health held a hearing on legislative proposals concerning food regulation and oversight. The hearing was focused on a wide range of bills, in keeping with the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda, ranging from anti–plant-based dairy produc...
China Market Analysis
Decline of China Ag Import Market The media has focused on China’s self-sufficiency effort in agriculture and its implications. In a largely political statement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the Trump Administration wants to broaden the agricultural imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt and Algeria, in addition to Israel, are being monitored by Ukraine as possible destinations for grain taken by Russia from occupied Ukrainian regions. In April, Egypt had said that it would “stop accepting such shipmen...
Market Commentary: Weather and Biofuels Drive CBOT Strength as Geopolitical Risk Builds
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. launches naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks UAE oil infrastructure, escalating geopolitical risk and supporting energy and broader commodity markets Biofuel demand entering uncharted territory, with soyoil valuation increasingly di...
Ag and Trade Paradigm Shifts
The Middle East is said to be undergoing a transformation as economic priorities transcend security concerns. This is evidenced by diversification away from oil and the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Meanwhile, the Palestine issue has been deprioritized, and Iran has emerged as more destabili...
E15 Plans: House Vote and Addition to Farm Bill Package for Senate
All eyes are shifting to the Senate following the House passage of a farm bill last Thursday. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas) is targeting the end of May or early June for a bill markup. According to Boozman, the House “going ahead and passing something was re...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina In Argentina, after several weeks of intense and frequent rainfall, weather conditions have improved, with clear days, dry cold, and wind supporting both soil and grain drying. Harvest activity has resumed; however, producers continue to prioritize soybeans, limiting progress in...
Market Commentary: Mixed End to a Higher Week
The corn and soy complex closed higher, with the wheat market mixed, as winter wheat closed up but spring wheat and livestock ended lower. Part of the strength for corn and soybeans may have been a weather premium, as crop planting has started out fast but warm weather has been slow to develop...
GDP at Modest 2 Percent Growth
Real GDP grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the consensus expectation of 2.3 percent but above the 0.5 percent growth in Q4 2025. The GDP number matches the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial P...
Per Capita, What Do You Eat?
Reflect for a moment on what you eat. There is a lot of advice out there in the ether about what you should eat, but really, what do you currently eat and how much? The good people at the USDA have some data for you, to help you answer that question. USDA says that we eat quite a bit of meat. L...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Market Commentary: Inflation Climbs, Crude Hesitates, Grains Reset
Key Market Insights Macros: Inflation isn’t cooling — it’s moving higher again. March PCE inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) rose 0.7 percent month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.5 percent, the h...
Livestock Round Up: Farm Bill Includes Prop 12 Fix
An amendment to the U.S. House farm bill, aiming to remove the Save Our Bacon Act language in Section 12006 that would have stripped language to prohibit California’s Proposition 12, Massachusetts’ Question 3, and up to 500 state agricultural laws across the country, was blocked by...
Market Commentary: Biofuel Demand and Weather Risks Support Ag Markets Despite Fed Pause
What Matters Today... Fed holds rates steady as inflation uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict pressures equities and supports broader commodity risk premia Biofuel demand accelerating globally, with U.S. imports of used cooking oil and strong soyoil demand reinforcing upside across the soy c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 April 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grains market remained volatile with a broadly bullish undertone. However, it remains too early to determine whether this shift is being driven by geopolitical factors or short-term positioning. The market continues...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Score New Highs on Weather, Fund Buying
Weather concerns and the impacts of the war in Iran helped push wheat and corn to sharp gains Tuesday, with both markets blowing past key technical resistance levels. The weather is now coupled with geopolitical tensions that look increasingly hard to resolve, which is giving funds the perfect...
House Ag Appropriations Bill: Moving to Full Committee This Week
Congress is moving forward with its FY 2027 spending bills, while also still working to address FY 2026 funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which is still in a shutdown. The House Agriculture-FDA Appropriations Subcommittee marked up and passed its FY 2027 bill. The House bill prov...
China Market Analysis
The overarching concern for China is that the rising cost of energy will reduce global trade demand at the same time that countries are becoming more protectionist. Trump Visit to China President Trump’s visit to China is in just over two weeks, though some question whether the trip...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisian researchers have been able to fully sequence the genomes of two local durum wheat types that have been grown in Tunisia for generations. They say that this “could be the key to developing more climate-resistant duru...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$100/head last week, up $28 from the prior week as the Choice cutout stabilized following its brief post-Easter decline while fed cattle prices eased modestly. The cutout firmed to $384/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $246/cwt, allowing packer margins to...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long position across the major ag futures contracts after a two week break as deteriorating negotiations in the Middle East and the emergence of weather concerns triggered risk-on buying. Funds bought 40,000 contracts (4.7 percent) to their...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets’ Two Key Factors Increasingly Bullish
The big picture for commodity markets is that imperfect weather and the lack of a peace deal in the Middle East are mandating that traders keep risk premia in prices. All other developments in ag futures stem in some way from these two factors, though the details of how, exactly, these factors...
Farm Bill on Thursday
The House will vote on the farm bill this Thursday. This afternoon, the House Rules Committee is meeting to consider the rule for the House’s consideration of the farm bill, specifically determining which amendments can and cannot be offered. There are a number of controversial amendments...
Anxiousness and Petulance; Calling a Spade; Trade Talk Environment; MAHAHA Farm Bill
Anxiousness and Petulance The U.S. war with Iran has come down to endurance. Washington sees Iran getting squeezed as the blockade eventually causes Iran’s whole oil system to back up and be forced into shutdown. It is estimated that Kharg Island’s storage will be capped out in 12&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Intermittent rains of varying intensity continue to disrupt Argentina’s corn harvest across key agricultural regions. Dry windows have not been sufficient to improve field conditions or reduce grain moisture, keeping progress slow and prompting many producers to prioritize...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week and a Mixed Outlook
This is the limbo period between the expectations and reality of a new crop going into the ground. Prices gyrate in a narrow range, awaiting something more definitive than planting “intentions.” The bears see a planting pace off to a quick start, the bulls see ground that in many pl...
Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation Hearings and Policy Directions
Kevin Warsh, formerly a member of the Federal Reserve Board, has been nominated by President Trump to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Trump has long been critical of current Chair Jerome Powell, even opening a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into the handling of cost overruns...
E15: What Does It Mean?
Previous administrations—including that of President Donald Trump—have promoted domestic consumption of corn and soybeans through expanded biofuel mandates and subsidies. The original framework for this policy was the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which required the...
Market Commentary: War Sustains Wheat; Corn Up Fifth Day
The Middle East truce is a rough one and the uncertainty spiked oil prices and the dollar again for another day. The wheat market has droughty conditions in the U.S., but globally there is pressure on a crop that gets both its fertilizer and a chunk of its demand from this volatile region. ...
Rotisserie Chicken Proposed to be Allowed Under SNAP
Senators Jim Justice (D-West Virginia), John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania), Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia), and Michael Bennet (D-Colorado) introduced the Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act, which would allow Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants to purchase hot rotisserie...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and drough...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Risk, Not Enough Conviction
Key Market Insights Markets aren’t trading fundamentals right now—they’re pricing risk. The Middle East remains the center of gravity, and the latest developments point to a situation that is not escalating—but not resolving either. That’s a difficult environment...
Functional Dysfunction; Out of the Frying Pan
Functional Dysfunction Europe has contended that Donald Trump’s attempt to address the decades-long harm caused by Iran’s theocratic regime is “not our war.” The Continent is in an expensive energy crisis because of the Iran war, but moral angst is the only respons...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 April 2026 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable during the week, pressured by ample global wheat supply, strong international competition, and a firmer ruble. To maintain competitiveness—particularly against Ukraine and Kazakhstan—the gov...
European Market Analysis
Key Takeaways: Wheat markets are supported by U.S. weather risk, though EU fundamentals remain bearish on strong supply, weak demand, and currency pressure. Upside is limited, with global strength unlikely to drive sustained EU gains. Maize markets are firming on Brazil weather risk and tighte...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Weather, Biofuel Demand Prospects
For much of the period since the U.S.–Iran war started, commodity markets have been buoyed by macroeconomic “risk on” buying fueled by the geopolitical risk and crude oil’s rally. Recently, the impact of this risk and crude oil on the ag markets has faded, leaving crop f...
China Market Analysis
Economy The National Bureau of Statistics says China’s GDP grew 5 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026. Other sources contend that the Iran war has helped pull the economy out of deflation and that it is now in the middle stages of a multi-year correction. The data for the agriculture sector...
Farm Bill Amendments
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has been working with Republican leadership to build momentum for a farm bill floor vote, likely expected the week of 27 April, but that depends on other must-pass legislative priorities. The House Rules Committee meets...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has a Saudi Arabia-backed irrigation program that it says will increase wheat production through improved water use efficiency. The program is part of Pakistan’s Green Pakistan Incentive. Saudi Arabia is said to hav...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further, falling to -$129/head last week, down $38 from the prior week as a continued seasonal softening in the Choice cutout pressured returns. The cutout declined to $382/cwt, extending its post–Easter pullback, while fed cattle prices held near $248/cwt...
Market Commentary: SOH Confusion Persists, but Ags Focus on Weather, Exports
The situation in the Persian Gulf remains as volatile as ever since it started on 28 February with a supposed weekend peace agreement dissolving into the U.S. Navy firing upon an Iranian vessel. The vessel was trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly did not heed commands to h...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Iran Peace Talks on Again, Off Again: Impacting Fertilizer
President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels. Araghchi’s post said the strait will stay open for the remainder of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump said, “the Str...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Rains continued across Argentina’s core agricultural regions, with additional heavy accumulations keeping rural roads largely impassable and further slowing the corn harvest. Harvest progress remains limited at approximately 3 percent per week. At the same time, farmers are...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week as signs of hope in the Middle East triggered an exit of geological “risk on” trades from commodity markets. Funds sold 40,000 contracts (4...
Market Commentary: Rebound for Corn, Beans on Iran News; Wheat Declines
New variables specifically in the agricultural markets were light today, but the Iran war news hit some markets like a tsunami. The war and Iran’s chokehold on global oil supplies have subjugated economies for nearly seven weeks with outsized petrol prices. Everything became distorted aro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more of capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 99 percent of last year. The steer and steer calf inventory was down slightly from a year ago at 7.256 million head,...
Market Commentary: More Wheat Weather Premium, but Weakness Elsewhere
There was generally modest volume today, with the exception of wheat, which was also uniquely higher on the day. New highs for the calendar year were printed in HRW as the fledgling crop is about to have the double-whammy of freezing temperatures added to drought as the welcoming committee for...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 April will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.6 million head. The big line item to watch agai...
Market Commentary: Markets Discount Risk as Grains Quietly Hold Ground
Key Market Developments Macros & Energy: Outside markets continue to trade in a tug-of-war between escalation and de-escalation — and crude oil is right at the center of it. Overnight, crude pulled back toward $87 as headlines pointed to a potential resumption of peace negotiat...
War Impacts; Taxes and Tariffs
War Impacts May soybeans are now within a penny of their value two weeks ago, and May corn is back up to within half a percent of its price at that time. The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq hit a record high. The cost of gasoline is about 15 percent higher th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 April 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grains market was volatile. Domestic sentiment remained bullish, supporting an upward trend; however, the export market in the south stayed bearish. Given Russia’s export-driven structure, weak export demand is...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Falling Conditions; Cattle Surge to New Records
The CBOT received several pieces of key fundamental information on Tuesday, including updated production figures from CONAB, the results of the USDA’s Monday Crop Progress report, and fresh export sales of corn to Mexico. The result was that wheat popped higher on growing concerns for yie...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dalien soybean futures and spot prices have defied seasonal trends since October 2025. They have been rising due to structural shortages of high-protein soybeans. Liu Mei, soybean analyst for Shanghai Steel Network, blames the situation on a poor harvest last year in the south, a delay...
Congress Coming Back to Busy Agenda
The House and Senate are returning from their two-week Easter recess period with a busy agenda ahead. While the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown has now hit the two-month mark, a plan is emerging to use reconciliation to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs a...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria is reported to be the main destination for Russia’s shipments of Ukraine grain from occupied regions. Egypt had been the main destination, but it has now stopped buying grain from occupied areas. Syria and Ukraine plan...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week to -$85/head, down from -$17/head the prior week, as continued strength in fed cattle prices again outpaced weakening boxed beef values. The Choice cutout declined $5.14/cwt to $386.41/cwt, while fed cattle prices rose $3.78/cwt to $388.36/cwt,...
Market Commentary: Political Tail Still Wagging the Market Dog
Politics are once again the tail wagging the dog in commodity markets. U.S. negotiations with Iran fell apart (again) over the weekend after Iran refused to agree to a permanent end of its nuclear weapons program. Rather than a return to the recent status quo, however, markets are adjusting to...
War Impacts
Commodity markets were mixed today, while Wall Street traded higher after President Trump said the Iranians still want to negotiate after he closed the Strait of Hormuz. The result is baffling to some, but the market reflects investor expectations about future corporate earnings and growth rath...
JBS Strike Settled, Beef Sector Still Under Inflationary Pressure
JBS USA announced on Sunday that it has reached a new collective bargaining agreement with UFCW Local 7, allowing the Greeley beef production facility to return to normal operations. The plant had been on strike since 16 March, with approximately 3,800 workers affected. The plant has the capaci...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN With a rainy start to April and excess moisture across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest has slowed, advancing just 2 percentage points over the past week to reach 21 percent of the total area. Rainfall during the second and third dekads of March was significa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts, ending a ten-week streak of net buying. Funds sold 62,000 contracts (6.4 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week with selling in corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat respon...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Factors Equals Mixed Day
There are so many conflicting narratives between war and peace, rain and drought, hopes and fears, that it was a mixed day of trading on Friday, and a mixed outcome for the week. For today, corn suffered its sixth lower day in the past seven trading sessions. There was high volume in soyb...
Inflation Ramps Up on Energy and Food Away from Home
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, showing that it rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, month over month, after being up 0.3 percent in February, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Energy was the...
Wheat’s Fall from Grace
Buried in the many mountains of USDA data last week was the March 2026 Prospective Plantings report. There you will find one specific figure among the many that was a record: USDA’s lowest ever prospective plantings estimate for wheat. It was not a surprise. U.S. wheat plantings and harve...
Transportation Perspectives - 9 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals Replace War Trading
Geopolitics has proven that it beats weather as a volatility driver, but agricultural markets and financials returned to fundamentals today. The truce/non-truce/truce had its influences, with the soy sector following oil higher, but wheat traded down on stocks reports while corn buyers’ e...
Livestock Round Up: Red Meat Production Down, Broilers Up
USDA released the April WASDE today with new 2026 meat production forecasts, changed from the March release. Beef is now projected at 25.79 billion pounds, down 20 million from March, mostly on lower first-half steer and heifer slaughter. Higher cow slaughter will partially offset the reduced...
Quick Hits: Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins Update
Ethanol Ethanol production margins continue to experience a counter-seasonal surge, with the energy market rally driving the bulk of the move. Prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, U.S. ethanol margins were already trending above year-ago levels by $0.10-0.20/gallon...
Market Commentary: Energies Collapse on Ceasefire News but Grains Reclaim Early Losses
Once again, Trump, Iran, and the Middle East were the hub around which the CBOT trade revolved on Wednesday. Late Tuesday, the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, just days after President Trump threatened to escalate attacks against the Middle Eastern country. In the annou...
Policy Deference; Reasserting Article I; Two-Tailed Dog; EU Imports; WTO Skepticism
Policy Deference The bilateral trade balance is a narrow way to look at the relative relationship between two countries. The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is seeking to ignore its own regulations that guide the application of the General Law on Adequate and Sustainable...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt is increasingly finding itself caught between Russia and Ukraine, in a battle for supplying its domestic wheat markets. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is facing political pressure and wooing from both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Ze...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 March - 3 April 2026 Market overview The Russian grains market remained broadly stable during the week, with a slightly firmer undertone. Export values were mostly steady, while the domestic market moved modestly higher. Broader geopolitical tensions had only a limited...
Market Commentary: Risk is Priced In — But Not Yet Believed
Key Market Developments Macro/Geopolitics: Markets are staring down a deadline tonight as President Donald Trump pushes Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM Eastern. So far, Iran has rejected the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal — reportedly delivered through Pakistan &mdash...
China Market Analysis
Hormuz Strategy China has been assisting Iran under a 25-year strategic agreement that has 90 percent of Iranian crude going to the Middle Kingdom. Iran is not currently blocking tankers passing through the Strait and on their way to China. At the same time, China is providing Iran with dual-us...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has said that it will no longer import any shipments of grain exported by Russia from the occupied areas of Ukraine. Egypt has increased its purchase price for local wheat by about 11 percent in order to increase domestic pu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply to -$17/head from $120/head the prior week, as rising fed cattle prices more than offset a modest decline in the Choice cutout. Fed cattle prices increased $12.92/cwt from the prior week while the cutout slipped $3.24/cwt, compressing gross margins and pushi...
Market Commentary: The Long-Run Draws Near
The CBOT markets were surprisingly insulated from a jump in crude oil that started the week. Crude oil futures rallied to $115/brl - their highest levels since the earliest days of the U.S.-Iran war - on rhetoric from the White House that signaled an escalation in the conflict. While the oil he...
Farmland Consolidation
Under the theory of economies of scale, the size of farms, like that of all industries, should increase over time due to improvements in productivity. Farmers themselves understand that the more land they farm, the greater their output and, thus, the larger their potential incomes. Government p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to advance nationwide, gaining 3.8 percentage points on the week to reach 19 percent of planted area. Fieldwork maintained a solid pace across most of the agricultural region, with the national average yield currently estimated at 8.53 MT/...
The President’s 2027 Budget Proposal
President Trump unveiled his FY2027 budget proposal on Friday. The President’s budget, which is largely for positioning purposes, poses a starting point for Congressional budget deliberations and proposes a 19 percent cut to the USDA and a massive 42 percent boost to Pentagon spending. Th...
Market Commentary: War and Easter Exit Strategy
There were a lot of moving parts on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, but liquidation and profit-taking may have been the strongest. A prolonged war and higher energy prices will impact consumption and inflation, while supporting biofuels. Storm systems may reduce some of the...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 2 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 6 April. ...
Poultry Production Rebounds on Heavier Weights
Through the week ending 21 March, U.S. broiler production remains well above year-ago levels, with total headcount surpassing 2.04 billion, a 3.63 percent increase compared to 2025. While overall supply levels continue to expand, the distribution across weight classes further highlights a prono...
Transportation Perspectives - 2 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscribe online after this date to...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Information — No Clear Direction
Key Market Developments Macro: Tension Without Direction Markets are trading the tension between escalation and resolution — and neither side has control. Both equities and commodities tested key technical levels this week before reversing sharply on headlines suggesting — at least...
AI Disaster; Fringe Opinions; NTE 40th Update
AI Disaster Opponents of artificial intelligence, like Senator Bernie Sanders (S-Vermont), warn that the technology risks the end of the human race. So-called AI “doomers” are campaigning to stall advancements out of precaution, mostly fearing adverse impacts on the labor force. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 March 2026 The Russian grains market was stable to slightly firmer during the week. Export activity and port trading remained slow, while the domestic market and inland trade reflected firmer farmer price expectations. Even so, gains were limited, and the broa...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on USDA Data, Hopes for End to Middle East Conflict
Except for lean hog futures, the CBOT and CME markets were higher on Tuesday in a combination of bullish factors. The day’s strength started after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hor...
Lots To Do for Congress When They Return to Washington
Congress is in recess this week ahead of the Easter and Passover holidays, with much yet to do, including ending a partial shutdown and considering the “skinny” farm bill. Congress is scheduled to return on 13 April, though that may change, especially if the Homeland Security fundin...
China Market Analysis
SPS Barriers India’s rice exports to China have been accelerating, but Beijing recently rejected three shipments of non-Basmati rice, citing genetically modified content. The technical rejection is notable because China’s Certification and Inspection Group had already pre-cleared th...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2026 wheat imports are seen increasing by about 8.3 percent to 2.4 million MT, according to the FAO, as a result of the 16 percent lower 2025 wheat crop — down to 4.4 MMT in 2025 from 5.2 MMT in 2024. Planting f...
March Grain Stocks Summary
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins eased slightly to $119/head, declining $7/head week over week as a modest softening in the cutout combined with a small increase in live cattle prices compressed margins. Despite the weekly pullback, margins remain sharply improved on a monthly basis (+$233/head), supported...
Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Downside Risk for Wheat into 2026/27
The current rally in wheat futures is widely known to be driven by fund buying in response to the conflict in the Middle East. Part of the price gains has also been motivated by concerns for the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains amid dry weather and the strong U.S. wheat export pace to date. What has...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Transportation Perspectives - 27 March
President Trump’s announcement on Monday this week that the U.S. would postpone any attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days increased hopes that a peaceful and quick resolution can be found to the war. Subsequent conflicting messaging from both sides has undermined these hopes,...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Cow-calf margins hit all-time record highs in 2025 as the industry benefited from the downstream impacts of record-breaking beef demand and the smallest beef cattle herd in decades. As WPI readers will know well, the resulting supply crunch boosted cattle prices across the production landscape...
Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 March 2026 During the second week of February, the Russian grains market showed a sharp divergence between domestic and export trends. The domestic market was slightly bullish but overall remained stable. In contrast, export market trading in RUB was mostly be...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
China Market Analysis
Balanced Trade Bilateral trade in both directions between the U.S. and China has slowed, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang told last week’s meeting of the China Development Forum 2026 that Beijing pledges balanced trade and greater openness. His country is seeking to reassure foreign investors...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has seen a sharp rise in wheat prices due to increased shipping costs and the 9 percent drop in the value of Egypt’s currency. Wheat prices in Egypt are said to be up by as much as $24/MT. Both ocean freight costs and...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved further, with estimated net returns increasing to $126/head from $48/head the prior week. The gains were driven by another firming in the choice beef cutout, which rose to $392.85/cwt, while fed cattle prices were largely stable. The resulting expansion in the sprea...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Transportation Perspectives - 20 March
As you probably guessed, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive market sentiment for energy markets and tanker vessel rates. While there have been several developments in the region this week, the big picture factors are the same: the Strait of Hormuz is all but sealed to ve...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 March 2026 Russia’s grain market turned firmer in the second week of March, led by stronger price action in Asian Russia, where domestic values continue adjusting higher toward neighboring Kazakh levels. By contrast, European Russia and the Black Sea rema...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
China Market Analysis
Bilateral Postponement The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is being delayed about “a month or so” at the request of Trump. He says he needs the time to focus on the war in Iran. Chinese leaders may also benefit from the extra time to assess the...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The Muslim month of Ramadan is expected to end around 19 March with the beginning of the Eid-al-Fitr holiday — the Eid holiday lasts up to five days depending on the country. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Transportation Perspectives - 13 March
The conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate developments in energy markets and crude oil or natural gas tanker vessels, but as time passes the conflict’s relatively minor impacts on the dry bulk and container sector are becoming clearer. After a short-lived jump, dry bulk freigh...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 March 2026 During the week of 02–06 March, the Russian grains market stabilized and showed early signs of recovery across most grains, while pulses remained weak. The developing bullish tone reflects geopolitical developments and movements in global commod...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Middle Eastern countries have imported an average of close to 29 million MT of grains and feed products per year over the past five years according to an Ag Perspectives report. These include wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, soymeal...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Transportation and Export Report - 5 March
As you might guess, it is all about the conflict in the Middle East this week when discussing anything connected to energy or freight markets. Rate estimates, fuel costs, and insurance premiums (if available) have all skyrocketed since the U.S. attacked Iran and Iran attacked 15 of its neighbor...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Livestock Round Up: Preview of Feedlot Placements and Changing Canada Dynamics
Feeder cattle sales were up over a year ago in February, but much of that was due to February 2025 sales being light. Still, the increase in activity bears watching, both for what it implies about feedlot placements and for herd rebuilding. In the four weeks ending February 27, total feed...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply last week but remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$206/head from the prior week’s extreme levels. The recovery was driven by a stronger boxed beef cutout, which rose to $371.62/cwt, while fed cattle prices moved lower on t...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Transportation and Export Report - 26 February
The start of 2026 has been the exact opposite of what dry bulk markets and traders expected at the end of 2025. Typically, the Lunar New Year and post-holiday demand lulls mean that Q1 freight rates are often the weakest of the year. This year, however, rates rallied sharply on unexpected deman...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On 20 February, Germany confirmed its first case of Newcastle disease in 18 years, after a commercial turkey flock in Neißemünde was found to be infected. Separately, Poland had two new flocks confirmed as being infected with the disease, as the country continues...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s 2026 winter crop planting started a little late due to a lack of rainfall, but this improved in January as rainfall caught up. Winter wheat and barley crops are expected to be good for the harvest later in 2026. 20...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply last week, with estimated net margins falling to -$330.80/hd, down $60.58/hd week over week. The Choice cutout held nearly flat at $365.62/cwt, but fed cattle prices continued to climb, with live steers at $246.91/cwt and dressed prices surging to $387.9...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains finally arrived across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, halting the crop deterioration seen in recent weeks. The core corn and soybean region benefited most, with some areas receiving up to 100 mm. However, localized damage from excess moisture, wind and hail affected a...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Transportation and Export Report - 19 February
Dry bulk ocean freight markets are once again seeing diverging trends across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Key to this divergence is the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which started last weekend and will last through 3 March. That is putting much of Asia on hold for trading and vessel inqui...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head. The total inventory on feed...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef complex margins weakened further in the week ending 14 February 2026, with estimated beef packer net margins sliding to -$270.22/hd (down $22.78/hd week over week) as higher cattle costs continued to outrun product values. The Choice cutout edged up to $365.30/cwt, but fed cattle prices mo...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Tariff Impacts; HPF: the New Climate Change
Tariff Impacts Calculating the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs is heavy fodder for economists. Many made predictions about their impacts long before the rubber even met the road. Predictions of a tariff-caused recession have been debunked, and there is little impact on inflation. Now...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 February 2026 The feature of the second week of February was appreciation of prices on the export platform, meaning regions in close proximity to seaports showed higher prices across all grains, including wheat, barley, corn and even peas. This is somewhat para...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU cattle markets remain relatively unchanged from recent weeks, with German and Austrian prices falling slightly amid carnival-period reduced interest. EU hog and pig markets have started to stabilize, with the “backlog” of market-ready animals largely cle...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
China Market Analysis
Corn/Feed USDA reports that Chinese domestic production of corn and wheat exceeds demand, but that barley is in a supply deficit and must be imported. China’s overall feed production is growing faster than its meat and egg output. China’s corn crop has been damaged by wetness, and i...
House Farm Bill Text Released
Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below. Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s grain harvest could go as high as 9.0 million MT in 2026, which would represent a doubling of last year’s drought-affected harvest. Rainfall is up by 34 percent over the average, while grain planting has incr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
President's Day
In observance of Presidents’ Day, both the CME/CBOT and our offices will be closed on Monday, 16 February. The next edition of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 17 February...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Transportation and Export Report - 13 February 2026
U.S. grain transportation markets are slowly recovering from the shocks of bitter cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System and from the surge in export demand. The latter is also causing strong rallies in ocean freight markets, particularly in the Atlantic basin. With g...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Margins and Distribution
The recent February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast beef production to increase in 2026 due to greater slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and heavier dressed weights, all of which will provide some relief to the beef market. Also, th...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Steady with an Outside Surprise
The U.S. created more new jobs in January than expected, especially in healthcare. And there was more ethanol produced last week than the market expected. Soyoil hit a new contract high, but South American production continues to look quite substantial. The mixed news produced mixed results, bu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further last week, with estimated net losses widening to -$247/head, extending the deterioration seen through late January. Boxed beef values were firmer last week, but gains failed to offset increases in fed cattle prices, resulting in additional margin compression...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 February 2026 The primary development during the first week of February was the allocation of grain export quotas for the balance of the 2025/26 marketing season. A total of 213 companies received export rights, compared with 219 companies in 2025. The majority...
Market Commentary: WASDE Confirms Big Supply, Big Demand; Soybeans Gain on Brazil Quality
The headline numbers from the February WASDE – the South American production estimates – were mostly in line with expectations, which is to say the massive Brazilian soybean crop was found to be even more so. USDA increased its assessment of the Brazilian crop to a new record, which...
WPI Website Security Update - 10 February
On the morning of 9 February, WPI identified unauthorized activity on our website server. Upon discovery, we immediately secured the website and server, took the necessary and advisable steps to examine the environment for comprimises, and deployed the website to a new, secure server. Our...
New World Screwworm Facility in the U.S.
In June 2025, Secretary Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to enhance USDA’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate NWS. As part of that announcement, she also shared plans to build a sterile NWS fly dispersal facility in South Texas. That announcement was made on 30 January, when U...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dim Sums report that Chinese propaganda’s focus on soybean self-sufficiency has faded as Brazil has become the top foreign supplier. In short, dependence on a main rival for a staple crop was the problem. China’s self-sufficiency in soybeans in 2025 was 16.2 percent, versus...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s snowfall and rainfall have returned to more normal levels following last year’s drought, which reduced wheat production by about 13.7 percent and barley production by 25.9 percent. Experts point out that, whil...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower on Weather, Pre-WASDE Consolidation
Except for the red-hot soyoil market, the CBOT was mostly lower on Monday, with favorable South American weather and pre-WASDE position adjustment driving the day’s mentality. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled slightly lower Monday in either consolidative trade or a continuation of ch...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
After a very quiet prior week with limited activity, market conditions became significantly more active. Futures rallied early in the week after President Trump said he had spoken with Xi Jinping and that China agreed to buy up to 20 MMT of U.S. soybeans. China has already purchased around 12 M...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
WPI recently expanded our analysis of the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data to include reports on the regime (trending, cyclical, or transition) of each commodity we include. This addition will make it easier for clients to draw actionable inferences from the data that can support trading...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
Transportation and Export Report for 4 February 2025
U.S. grain transportation markets remain skewed by the impacts of cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System, which have pushed spot CIF and FOB values sharply higher. Internationally, the recovery in ocean freight rates continues, with strong demand in the Atlantic while...
Herrington Becomes President of World Perspectives, Inc.
Washington, DC—World Perspectives, Inc. (WPI) is a leading agricultural market analysis and consulting firm making a leadership transition marking an important milestone in the firm’s development. After years of distinguished service as President & CEO, Gary Blumenthal has stepp...
Market Commentary: Soybean Spillover Rides Another Day
There was high-volume trading in soybeans again today after hitting record levels yesterday. The enthusiasm carried over to corn and soymeal as well, and there was good volume trading in soyoil contracts. There is understandable skepticism that China would pay 80 cents/bushel more for U.S. soyb...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Livestock Roundup: Dairy Herd
The U.S. dairy herd in 2025 expanded at the fastest pace since the 1950s and reached a level that has not occurred since the early 1990s. Based on the USDA monthly milk production report for December, the milk cow herd totaled 9.567 million head, up from the prior month and 212,000 head from a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further, with estimated net losses widening to -$233/head. While boxed beef values continued to firm, gains were outpaced by higher fed cattle prices, pressuring gross margins despite stable carcass weights and drop values. Packer profitability remains well below se...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge as Trumps Says China in for Another 8 MMT
There are days in the commodity markets when it feels like nothing is happening in any market, and then there are days when it feels like everything is happening in every market. Today was one of the latter days. The big headline in ag trade Wednesday was the soybean futures and broader s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Large supplies and strong exports of wheat from the Black Sea and Russia continue to cap upside potential for wheat. U.S. and EU markets rallied last week until late in the week, when they hit a combination of technical pressure and increased competition from the Black Sea.&...
Disingenuous Ag Letter
Leaders of the U.S. House and Senate Agriculture Committees received a letter (See Attached) yesterday from more than two dozen “former” private sector leaders of the American agriculture sector. Many previously represented farmers who have been staunch supporters of President Trump...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Stocks, Tax Credits; Livestock Futures Gain on Cash Trade
Soyoil was the upside leader in the CBOT’s Tuesday trade after the USDA’s December soyoil stocks figure came in well below expectations. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its proposal on the 45Z Clean Fuel tax credits, which were broadly friendly for ag interests...
China Market Analysis
No. 1 Central Document China has released its No. 1 document for 2026, which calls for strengthening the country’s agriculture sector and rural linkages, while enriching rural areas as top priorities. The plan envisions up to 500 special demonstration zones deploying technology and deep r...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations. Last Friday, the Senate passed an amended appropriations bill for the remaining FY26 funding shortfall. The measure included a two-week continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget, allowing more time for lawmakers to negotiate further Immigration a...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Israel will raise import tariffs on wheat from Russia and Ukraine under a new tariff agreement with the United States, a move expected to increase U.S. wheat imports. According to reports, the Israeli government will subsidize U.S...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Strong Dollar; Cattle Surge on Inventory Numbers
The CBOT turned lower to start the week with some of the profit-taking that defined Friday’s end-of-month trade continuing into the first day of February. Also pressuring grain futures was an improved forecast for Argentina, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and sharply lower energy markets. Th...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Meat Producer Price Index
Wholesale meat prices fell across the board in December, seasonally adjusted, according to Producer Price Index (PPI) data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The overall PPI for final demand, which measures the end stage of production, rose 0.5 percent last month, driven by high...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South America Weather Overview Argentina received some rainfall this week, but precipitation was concentrated in the northeast and western regions, with accumulations well below crop requirements. Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to rise over the coming days, with highs between 36°C...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds building their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds added 108,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position last week, with buying in soyoil and CBOT wheat driving most of that increase. The...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Cracking the Egg Price Mystery
Egg prices have been through a volatile 18 months, rallying sharply in LH 2024 and into early 2025 as bird flu decimated the U.S. layer flock. In early 2025, the U.S. layer flock for table eggs specifically fell to at least a 10-year low, at 286.4 million birds, down about 16 percent from the 2...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report will be issued on Friday. The outlook calls for the cattle herd to be 86.4 million head, down from 86.7 million head last January, making it the seventh consecutive decline since 2019 and putting the cattle herd down 2 percent from the previous low point i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Thailand Soy Tariffs Update
Thailand’s market is now officially reopened to soybean and soymeal imports as the government has resolved a lapse in tariff policy that caused import duties to default to prohibitively high levels earlier this month. On 27 January, the Thai Cabinet approved the continuation of its market...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses at -$185/head, little changed from the prior week. Rising boxed beef values continued to lag gains in fed cattle prices, keeping gross margins compressed despite incremental support from carcass weights and drop values. Rel...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Congressional Letter on Buy-Up Coverage Rule
USDA’s Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) published a new rule for crop insurance late last year, the Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule that eliminates buy-up coverage for prevented planting policies. The rule proposes to: Increase premium subsidies from 5 to 10 crop...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Macroeconomic markets remain especially uncertain and chaotic, and exchange-rate volatility is having a direct impact on grain trade. Pricing has been somewhat inconsistent this week amid the currency moves, as exporters and buyers alike try to navigate the volatility. Over...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
Free Trade Style; 30,000 Feet; Technology Evolution; Taxing Food
Free Trade Style Brussels realizes the mistake it made when it included agriculture in its free trade negotiations with the Mercosur countries. Proponents bragged that it would remove most tariffs on EU–Latin American food trade and concurrently protect Europe’s geographic indicator...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN As of today, 93 percent of the expected area has been planted, representing a year-on-year delay of more than five percentage points. Some late-planted fields may remain unseeded due to a lack of soil moisture. Rainfall remains absent, while persistently high temperatures are increasing cr...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
China Market Analysis
Economy and Diet The decline in China’s population, with the birthrate falling 17 percent to its lowest since 1949, is likely having some impact on total food consumption. Slower-than-reported economic growth may also be a factor, as 2025 saw lower agricultural prices and fewer imports. M...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq is reported to be facing the “driest year in modern history” due to drought and greatly reduced water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey. Forecasters say the 2025/26 wheat crop could be down by...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
European Market Analysis
Regional News In the first two weeks of 2026, 10 countries in the EU reported a combined total of 42 outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry farms. The virus was detected on 17 farms in Poland, five each in Germany, France, and Hungary, and four in Belgium. Bulgaria, Denmark,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 January 2026 The first week of January is typically quiet for trading and logistics as Russia observes Orthodox Christmas. Activity remained subdued, although the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian war continued to shape market sentiment. Both sides carried out airst...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
China Market Analysis
Beef China’s new import safeguard on beef continues to stir the market. Its largest impact is on the biggest supplier of protein, Brazil. Suppliers in that country say they will have to reduce production and slaughter capacity. Meanwhile, Ireland is pleased that Beijing has lifted a ban t...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
London based GAFTA – Grain and Feed Trade Association – advises that in 2024/25 they had 314 new mainly grain arbitrations and 43 appeals. 170 arbitrations were finalized while 46 were settled outside of arbitration. The average cost for an arbitration, under rule 125 for a GAFTA me...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Corn planting progress has reached nearly 90 percent of projected area. Almost 70 percent of the corn crops is going through the critical growth stage. Crops are beginning to experience a lack of wáter after many days of intense heat and wind. , Fields are starting to appear stresed...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 December 2025–02 January 2026 Russia’s grain market remained bearish during the final week of December, with most fundamentals continuing to pressure prices and preventing authorities from setting higher export duties. The country will remain heavily export...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
China Market Analysis
Donroe Doctrine The forced extradition of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Moduro has been variously framed to stop the flow of narcotics and obtain oil but the geopolitical implications are not lost on Beijing. It buys its petroleum from seven main suppliers, with Russia sanctioned, Iran in...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco has established its soft wheat import rebate program for 1 January to 30 April 2026. The actual amount of the import rebate is calculated on the average landed cost versus the government set reference price based on inform...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Happy New Year!
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forward to serving you in 2026! Please note that our next report will be issued on Friday, 2 January as the U.S. markets are closed for th...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Beef and Pork Past, Present and Future
USDA’s November slaughter data helps decode some of the outlook for 2026. There are the known knowns - cattle and hog numbers are down, weights are up, and the breeding inventory for cattle is growing while for hogs it remains constant. But stabilized dairy cow slaughter, lower sow slaugh...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
China Market Analysis
Grain Utilization Grain market prices have been cooling of late due to the prospects of a large South American crop, but China is also cited as an influence. Sinograin has been auctioning soybeans and it may also be releasing some of its reserves of corn into the market. Corn and wheat are bein...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Thursday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday. WPI wishes everyone a joyous and safe holiday. WPI will resume operations on Friday, 26 December. Note that Ag Perspectives will be providing ma...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
China Market Analysis
Soybean Auction Falters To make way for recent purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans, Sinograin has been auctioning state-owned reserves of soybeans imported in earlier years. At its second auction, sales fell to 62 percent of the volume offered, versus 77 percent in the first auction. And the avera...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained stable and bearish, with weak domestic and export demand limiting price gains. Trade activity was slow, and a strong ruble prompted the government to maintain export duties. Global wheat supply remains ample,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from December 2024, and up slightly from 1 September 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.95 million head, was down 1 percent from last year and up sligh...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa Black Sea port infrastructure on 23 December reportedly damaged a vessel carrying Ukrainian soybeans. The EU Commission raised its forecast of EU common wheat production to 134.4 MMT for 2025/26 and bumped th...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Safaga port, south on the Red Sea, will be expanded and improved as a result of an agreement between Egypt’s Al Dahra Agriculture and Abu Dhabi based AD Pors Group. There are plans to make Safaga into a regiona...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data
The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...
WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Beef Market Recap and Outlook
On 21 November, Tyson Foods, one of the largest beef packing companies in the United States, announced it will close its cattle slaughter facility in Lexington, Nebraska, and reduce its beef operations in Amarillo, Texas, down to a single, full-capacity shift. Based on estimated slaughter at bo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 13.1 percent week-over-week, reaching 73 percent of total area, with yields remaining above average and above earlier expectations. As a result, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its production estimate to 27.1 MMT, broadly in line with the Rosario Board of Trade&rsq...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk freight markets are mixed this week with pre-holiday trade driving diverging trends. The Capesize sector saw some strength, primarily in the Atlantic, with demand for Brazilian loadings driving the market. Panamax and Supramax markets, in contrast, saw weaker pricing as ballaster...