Biden Rural Outreach A politician going into the geography of the opposition is usually connoted as a sign of strength. Nothing in the Biden presidency pol...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.75/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
White Commodities Focus
White commodities is an American euphemism for three crops, cotton, rise, and sugar, that are all white in color and each have statutory programs considere...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 23–27 October 2023 As of 27 October, winter crops were planted over 18.5 Mha versus the 20 Mha planned by the government...
Market Commentary: Waiting for a Headline
CBOT ag commodities traded mostly sideways on Tuesday while bulls and bears wait for headline(s) to help move the markets. Wheat saw perhaps the greatest a...
Panama Canal Further Restricting Shipments
Gatun Lake, the artificial lake which discharges water into the locks of the Panama Canal, for transit between the Atlantic and the Pacific is down to the...
Coercion Beholder; Down Under’s Demands
Coercion Beholder U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart famously said in a 1964 case that he could not define hard core pornography “But I know i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&n...
China’s Wheat Demand Trend
China has been on a wheat buying binge, reportedly picking up 2 MMT of Australian wheat in October and another 2.5 MMT of French wheat. It is surprising th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel said that any ships damaged by the current conflict will be fully...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Rally, Grains Side Sideways as Harvest Enters Final Stages
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with corn futures drifting sideways while soymeal and soybeans pulled back from recent strength. Wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.66/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Economic Coercion; Good for the Goose; No Surprise
Economic Coercion Australia’s trade minister is in China where a rapprochement in relations is underway. Beijing had earlier sought to punish Austral...
Tangential Rice Market Impacts
Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice pri...
Policy Roundup
There’s no shortage of issues forcing market and policy participants to keep their heads on a swivel, both near term and over the horizon. The follow...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After Argentina’s recent presidential election and in anticipation of the runoff election, the current government extended the possibility for...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Sweden’s 2023/24 grain production is expected to total just 4.4 - 4.5 MMT, down 1 MMT from 2022/23 and the lowest level in 30 yea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.755/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Finally Turnaround; China Washes Out Brazilian Soy Cargoes
The CBOT largely followed its existing trends into the weekend, which meant rallies in soymeal and soybeans, new contract lows in wheat, and sideways trade...
Oilseed Highlights: Meal Continues the Drive Upward
The Market CBOT December soymeal hit a new contract high today at 448.4 and with a gain of $12.19 at the close, the value is 442.4/ST, a 4.3 percent gain f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
A New House Speaker Proposes December Farm Bill
The House Republicans finally came around to electing a new Speaker, Representative Mike Johnson of Louisiana. Johnson said he’d like the House to pa...
Market Commentary: Wheat Had Volume and Gains
The market opened mostly in the green this morning after overnight markets showed small gains for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. About mid-...
Livestock Roundup: A Look at Heifer Numbers
As WPI reported, last Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was a bearish surprise. Inventory on feed was 101 percent of last year and September placements...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 13-19, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 363,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 43 pe...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Flashes Reversal; South American Rains Douse Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT was heavily influenced by fresh forecasts for beneficial rains in South America over the next two weeks. Rains will offer relief to drought-afflic...
October Cold Storage Report
September 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up fractionally from August but were 8 percent below September 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Farm Bill Schedule; Digital Protectionism
Farm Bill Schedule Congressman Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) appears poised to capture the position of House Speaker. If successful, he will prove the axiom t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 October 2023 As of 20 October, Russian farmers harvested grains and pulses from 44.6 Mha which is in line with las...
Beyond Fundamentals
The Brazilian share of China’s corn imports over the past three months has been nothing short of impressive. It can be argued that U.S. corn should h...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Extends its Rally; Grains Grind Lower; Cattle Try to Stabilize
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday amid favorable weather forecasts for South America and a general lack of news. The market with the most interesting ac...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.805/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
New Trade Promotion Program Announced
On 16 October, WPI reported that USDA was poised to create a new export promotion program, the Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP). The program...
Wide Divide Ahead of MC 13; Value of NGT’s; Polish Politics
Wide Divide Ahead of MC 13 All sides remain far apart at a WTO senior officials meeting looking for deliverables at the coming MC12 meeting in Abu Dhabi in...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation...
Tale of Two Commodities
EU olive oil and U.S. oranges are each having a challenging year. Beyond that the similarities are few. The EU produces 60 percent of the world’s oli...
Market Commentary: CBOT Fails to Maintain Technical Strength; COF Report Sinks Cattle Futures
Last week’s trade saw major ag commodities rally on bullish technical developments with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all topping key chart points. Tha...
USMCA GMO Corn Panelists; Maritime Order
USMCA GMO Corn Panelists The U.S. and Mexico have agreed on the three jurists that will decide on Washington’s complaint about AMLO’s GMO corn...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&...
Elections and Consequences: Argentina and U.S.House Speaker
Argentina held its national election yesterday, including the multi-candidate presidential race. The results are in: no candidate garnered the necessary 45...
Incongruous Economics
There are many similarities between the U.S. and EU, but many differences as well. When the common currency euro was introduced in 1999, it was valued at t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Market Overview and Election Results Last week there was very little activity in the markets leading up to Sunday’s elections. The government c...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices have trended higher in the past two weeks with multiple storylines helping push values higher. First, better-than-expected...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was up 1 percent on October 1, 2023 for cattle and calves in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head - to total totaled 11.6 milli...
Market Commentary: End of Week Reshuffle
The only certainty of the past week is that soymeal is going stratospheric. But corn, soybeans, and wheat took a breather today. For the week: Decem...
Cattle on Feed: Huge Placements!
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.6 million he...
Oilseed Highlights: Meal Rides a Wild Horse
The Market It was quite a week for soymeal. The December contract rose an impressive 8.69 percent to 423.90/ST, pulling soybeans along with it. November so...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.955/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.86/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 6-12, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 632,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 3 percent from th...
Market Commentary: Topsy-Turvey
Markets traded mostly in the red during the first half of the day’s and then corn, soybeans/meal and wheat turned right-side up. There are a lot of m...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview, Higher Placements Expected
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 September at 99.8...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.05/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.94/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. No...
Elbow for an Eye; Eye for an Eye
Elbow for an Eye Legislation aimed at China has been introduced in the U.S. Congress to restrict foreign ownership of farmland. However, it is more nimble...
Market Commentary: Export News and Rumors Create Mid-Week Strength
Strength developed at the CBOT on Wednesday with another strong rally in soymeal helping pull soybeans higher and, in turn, support the corn market as well...
Right View, Wrong Solution
Speaking at the World Dairy Summit, USDA Secretary Vilsack repeated his concern about the declining number of farms and farmers in America, and in a relate...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.92/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 October 2023 After weeks and weeks of bearish sentiments the market is finally coming to relative stability because...
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Show Strong Consumer Spending; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with a surge in soymeal futures helping pull soybeans higher amid a lack of fresh fundamental commodity news. Indeed, the big...
Elections and Policy; Appeal of Non-reciprocals
Elections and Policy Congressman Jim Jordan came up 20 votes short in his first-round effort to secure the Speakership of the U.S. House. Some farm state R...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.89/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Cattle Herd Rebuilding and Beef on Dairy Breeding
Pasture conditions are deteriorating as 2023 comes to a close and the grazing season closes out. This has potential implications for the rebuilding of the...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran has proposed to Russia that grain shipments can be made from Russia...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Report; Exports Improve as Barge Rates Fall
The soy complex was the upside leader at the CBOT to start the week with a bullish NOPA report driving the markets. NOPA reported a record-large September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Technology Battle Ahead; Prosperity Rebuffed as Benefit
Technology Battle Ahead This year’s release of various AI models has prompted some political leaders to call on the Biden Administration to begin neg...
New House Speaker Still Uncertain; New USDA Trade Promotion Funds Coming as House Leaders Re-Focuse on Ag Trade
The House of Representatives will hold a vote for a new Speaker tomorrow; at this point, the process of electing a Speaker has used up 15 of the 45 days th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Sorghum Little has been said about the sorghum crop in Argentina, but it is having a very particular year. The 2023 crop produced 2.5 MMT according t...
China Hoovering Up Wheat
China made a rare purchase of U.S. wheat and is on track to make record overall purchases this year. Domestic consumption of wheat has been growing at a 2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
Market Commentary: CBOT Reevaluates WASDE and Pares Gains; China Buys SRW Wheat Again
With the October WASDE now in the rearview mirror, the CBOT markets are starting to shift their focus to export trends and harvest progress. Friday’s...
Vilsack’s Baiting Rhetoric
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack reportedly is asking farm groups how many farmers and how much farmland have gone away since 1981. He then cites the number of f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&...
Initial Observations on California’s Proposition 12
As WPI covered on 28 September, that month’s USDA Hogs & Pigs report surprised to the upside, which led to USDA forecasting more pork production...
Oilseed Highlights: Riding the WASDE Wave
The Market Due to the strong yesterday from USDA’s October WASDE report, November soybeans ended the trading week up 14.25 cents. It traded intrasess...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA kept their estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels for U.S. soybean ending stocks. The estimate for U.S. production was reduced 42 million on lower...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels to 2,111 million bushels for 2023/24. This is still a healthy ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20...
Export Sales
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period September 29-October 5, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 652,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/20...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.96/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary: The WASDE Storm Strikes
WPI analyst Matt Herrington called it correctly when he referred to yesterday’s market as the calm before the WASDE storm. It should be noted that th...
Biden’s Food Burden
There were mixed reactions to today’s CPI report for September, though it pushed Wall Street into its first sell-off in four days. U.S. core inflatio...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Forecasts
Most eyes on today’s WASDE were looking at the crop side since this is a critical month with harvest underway. However, there were a few items...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm
The CBOT was mostly calm before Thursday’s October WASDE – a report that often produces volatile reactions from the market. Corn and wheat drif...
Godwin’s Law and Food; Mother Nature’s Trade Barrier; Reciprocal Nonreciprocals
Godwin’s Law and Food Attorney and author Mike Godwin noted that the longer a discussion grows on social media, the increased likelihood someone will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capa...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market: October 2-6, 2023 Bearish sentiments prevailed as the market became volatile from a variety of factors. On the one hand, there are am...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls on Export Disappointment; Soyoil Lifeline out of Reach
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with wheat futures dropping sharply after there was no official confirmation of Monday’s rumored large export sa...
Report: Ag Productivity Not on Trend to Meet Needs in 25 Years
A new report out of Virginia Tech University concludes that increasing agricultural productivity is not enough to meet demand for global ag production by 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.585/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&...
China’s Food Autarky
Zhang Hongzhou at Nanyang Technical University in Singapore says that geopolitical tensions, war, and climate change have refocused China on food self-suff...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria’s wheat crop, according to the recent FAO report, will be d...
WPI October U.S. Grains S&D Expectations
Heading into the October WASDE that will be published on Thursday, 12 October, WPI offers the following assessment of supply and demand expectations for th...
Market Commentary: Conflict in Israel Sends Oil, Commodities Higher for Now
As WPI readers already know, Saturday morning brought news that Hamas and Hezbollah fighters from Gaza launched an unprecedented attack on Israel and captu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.&n...
Political Hacks on Prices; Seeing RED Herring; AMLO’s Short-term Vision
Political Hacks on Prices Food price inflation continues to torment consumers and ignoring its monetary policy-based roots, agribusiness remains a convenie...
Vietnam’s Steady Growth
USDA/FAS forecasts Vietnam’s feed demand to grow to 26.6 MMT. This is largely pushed by a 3.3 percent expansion in pig production, and poultry rising...
Consumers’ Food Purchasing: Politics Matters
As the farm bill plays out – eventually - an interesting consumer survey was released last month by Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina The disparity in wheat cultivation in Argentina is something rarely seen. Looking at the South and Southeast areas of Buenos Aires pr...
Market Commentary: Corn and Livestock Bulls Revived; Wheat, Soy Struggle Under Bearish Pall
Grains and livestock markets traded opposite directions to end the week with non-meat products ending lower amid profit taking and pre-WASDE position adjus...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
New House Speaker and the Farm Bill
Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-California) was removed as Speaker of the House this week and a new Speaker will be selected next week (if all goes accord...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.92/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Bear Territory Deepens
The Market It was another week of losses in the soybean pits, but with much shallower declines than last week. November soybeans dropped 0.7 percent and ar...
Ukraine Blows up CAP; Watered Down Trade Policy; Experts Have Value
Ukraine Blows Up CAP Some are worried about the impact of Ukraine joining the EU and specifically if it becomes part of the Common Agricultural Policy. Ukr...
Market Commentary – Rebound Before the Downfall?
Markets opened mostly negative following an overnight session that involved some red. However, there was a turnaround mid-session that saw much of the mark...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 22-28, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 273,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 50 percent from...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI is Back and Outlook for Meat and Livestock
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed today that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was found in a commercial tur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7825/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Supply Expectations; Hog Trend Reversal Underway?
The CBOT was mostly lower in lackluster trade Wednesday with soymeal, live cattle, and hogs seeing the only substantial gains. The general trend for the we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.86/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.6/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
UK-U.S. FTA Unlikely
UK Secretary of Business and Trade Kemi Badenoch is correct when she says there is a “zero” chance of a trade deal with the U.S. She pins blame...
Argentina’s Declining Wheat
El Nino continues to disrupt crop production around the world, and it is not done with Argentina. The country suffered a record crop falloff last season du...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–27 September 2023 Bearish sentiments prevail as the harvest brings more and more grain to the market while exports ar...
Market Commentary: Wheat Firms Again as China Buys SRW; Cattle Crash Through Support
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with wheat following through on Monday’s sharp rally after USDA announced 220 KMT of SRW sold to China for 2023/24. Tha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Food Service Spending within Total Consumer Spending
Last week the personal income data for August was released; income in August was up 0.4 percent and on the year is up 4.8 percent. The driver was private s...
Green Machinations; Export Gamble
Green Machinations EU leaders are in a bind. Their candidate to assume the Green Deal portfolio, Marčos Šefčovič, is being pressed by EU Parliamenta...
Rice Signals Future
Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, Ind...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan reports outbreaks of Fall Armyworms on maize crops in some areas...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Back After Friday’s Drubbing; Soyoil Stocks Hit 4-year Low
The CBOT largely reversed Friday’s extreme, post-Grain Stocks report selloff with corn fully erasing the prior trading day’s losses. Fresh news...
Transatlantic Future; Redundant Legislation; Ineffective Opposition
Transatlantic Future A U.S.-EU meeting occurs in a few weeks and the number of topics is growing. Steel and aluminum tariffs are the only large trade issue...
Mexico’s Poultry Imports
USDA/FAS predicts that U.S. poultry exports to Mexico will continue to grow despite that country’s lackluster GDP growth. Mexican poultry production...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Outlook The arrival of the expected "El Niño" weather event for Argentina continues to be delayed, and the situation is becoming more...
No Government Shutdown for at Least 45 Days
The federal government is open this morning due to some unexpected and quick moving maneuvers on Saturday, the last day of FY 2023. A 45-day short-term con...
Market Commentary: Reports Tank Soy Complex and Wheat; Corn Stocks Bullish but Market Falls Anyway
The much-anticipated Grain Stocks report failed to match expectations in terms of supply data, but more than exceeded hopes for an exciting day of trade. T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7675/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close...
Oilseed Highlights – Drift Lower Could End
The Market It was another week of falling oilseed prices. November soybeans dropped 1.6 percent, December soymeal lost 1.1 percent and December soyoil fell...
Government Shutdown?
Another government shutdown is looming; WPI’s contacts on Capitol Hill and around Washington are all predicting a shutdown is more likely than not. T...
Market Commentary: Mixed but Friendly
Never understood the market phrase “friendly” – friendly to whom? Today’s market was not too unfriendly to anyone from the standpoi...
Livestock Roundup: Slightly More Hogs and Pigs
USDA released its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. Pre-report expectation was for a total inventory of 73.6 million head – which would have...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.885/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7875/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 15-21, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 544,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 77 percent from the previous...
Shutdown Exports; Killing the Messenger; Checking Out
Shutdown Exports The U.S. government will likely shut down this weekend because some Republicans are trying to leverage more budget discipline and other go...
Market Commentary: Wheat Crashes on Tender Results; Commercial Buying Lifts Corn
The CBOT was once again mixed with wheat futures dropping to fresh, two-year lows after data from Egypt’s latest tender showed continued weakness in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Green Tipping Point; Scale of Corruption
Green Tipping Point The media only covers the two extremes: climate deniers and climate alarmists. The climate alarmists have been winning but now it is th...
Tomato Wars
U.S. and Mexican trade officials meet in Washington this Friday for the annual bilateral economic dialogue. Labor rights, automobile domestic content, and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian...
Market Commentary: Worsening Conditions Lift Soy Complex; Cattle Crash on Economic Worries
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the worst late-September soybean ratings since 2003 offering support to soybean futures while further strength in crude...
Farm Bill Delays; Small Farmers’ Big Complaint; Schöpferische Zerstörung
Farm Bill Delays The prospects for passing a farm bill this year are characterized from being very cloudy to increasingly getting worse. One academic said...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 1...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June-August quarter will be released on Thursday. This is an interesting report as it covers the period in which...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat...
September Cold Storage Report
August 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from July and were 6.6 percent below August 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastru...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under t...
WTO Outlook; Food Safety Evolution; Subpar Eco Schemes
WTO Outlook USTR Katherine Tai last week described the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference scheduled for next February to be the first “reform mi...
Economic Growth: Is It Strong or Fragile?
Last week, the Fed’s FOMC left interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected, but the future outlook is less certain. According to Federal Reserve...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. N...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, R...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either reg...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
Market Commentary: Defensive for a While Longer
The CBOT tried to recover from Thursday’s blistering selling that was primarily motivated by disappointing export sales and aggressive “risk of...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.1 million he...
Oilseed Highlights – Another Bearish Week
The Market It was another down week for the oilseeds complex. November soybeans lost 44 cents to a one month low, December soymeal is off $6.30 and Decembe...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on feed for the slaughter totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.00 million head, 5 percent...
Responding to China
EU Trade Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is headed to China, reportedly with the message to sign onto some form of trade agreement giving Europe assurances of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Summary for September 8-14, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 307,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 30 percent from the previous w...
Market Commentary: Sours on Economic Outlook
There was red across the board today as ags and outside markets collectively absorbed the Fed’s message of potentially longer-term costlier money and...
Africa Rising; Farm Bill Split; Bulgaria as Exporter
Africa Rising Notably, the Africa Group at the WTO has asked for policy space to develop its industrial sector. Historically, the focus has been on agricul...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 September at 97.6...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises Despite Coming Harvest Pressure
The CBOT found a bit of strength for the day with corn seeing the most bullish action on expectations of a smaller 2023/24 Brazilian crop. Corn posted its...
Glyphosate Wars; Biodiesel Boondoggle; Ethanol Future Play
Glyphosate Wars Objections to more toxic herbicides with drift issues has been more understandable than the attack on relatively benign glyphosate. But gly...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.8875/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not tra...
Market Commentary: Russia Undercutting Wheat Markets; Corn Sees Temporary Bounce
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with wheat values still languishing under stiff competition from Russia. Wheat values are drifting lower despite 10-year low...
Targeting Big Ag; Milking the Cow
Targeting Big Ag Today signaled the end to a 60-day public comment period on the Biden Administration’s proposed regulatory guidance on antitrust iss...
Propane Situation
In two weeks, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will resume price reporting on propane (assuming there’s no government shutdown). The price...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7625/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U...
Market Commentary: Lower Through October
The CBOT started the new week on a bearish note with last week’s WASDE and fund selling as reported in the CFTC report creating pressure. Corn has th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.715/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.&n...
IPEF to Nowhere; Scale and Regulation
IPEF to Nowhere The Biden Administration continues to push its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) but at least two developments raise questions as to i...
Chinese Energy Imports: Crude Oil at Record Levels
There has been much attention to, and discussion of, China’s declining two-way trade volumes. China is a trade dependent economy, with imports of man...
American Wheat Problem
USDA’s Economic Research Service has highlighted the plight of American Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW). Noting that its production and export have been...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,...
Market Commentary: Traders Earn a Weekend
In what has been an intense week of market activity, Friday’s action was at once modest but demonstrative of the volatile path ahead. Volume...
Oilseed Highlights – Good Week for Coproducts, Not Beans
The Market Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report took a toll on soybeans. There was an attempted reversal in trading the next two-days, but today’s marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7625/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
Comparing Pre-Emption of California Pork and Vehicle Rules
Just over a year ago (29 August), WPI reported on the California Air Resources Board (CARB) having finalized a rule that would effectively outlaw the sale...
Market Commentary: Calm After the Storm
The certainty that comes with USDA WASDE numbers inevitably fades during subsequent trading sessions as the focus shifts to what some might derisively call...
Skewing Farm Output; Pausing Farm to Fork
Skewing Farm Output The activist group Farm Action is usually slaying mythical creatures like Big Ag or the $750 million checkoff programs used by farm org...
Livestock Roundup: What Meat Price Spreads are Reflecting
Looking at the recently released meat price spreads from USDA can provide some hints as to what is going on in the livestock and wholesale meat markets. Re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&...