Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.27/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
Articles
Recession Impacts on Trade
Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the...
PM Post - Fan Favorite Spread Trade
THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/2 higher December meal: 1.00 higher December soyoil: 11 higher December corn: 3/4 lower September wheat:&nbs...
Technical Views - Market Moving Higher
SPREADS Sep. crush firms to 86.52c/bu, while oilshare is back below 34.0% to trade down to 33.79%. Sep/Dec corn trades out to 11c from 10 3/4c. ...
AM Outlook - Order Flow Driven by Supply Outlook
GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this morning led by soybeans. Technically speaking November beans put in reversal day of trade, posting an outside da...
Market Commentary
Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morni...
Livestock Round Up: COVID Catalyzes Ag Policy
The dairy industry has faced several years of bear markets and just when things looked like they were going to turn around in 2020, COVID-19 hit. Reduced f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2675/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; COVID-19 on Soy Ship; Argentine DETs on Soy
Soy Export Sales Highlight As expected, the week ending 23 July was a very good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and a so-so week for exporters of U.S. s...
Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization
Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to ec...
PM Post - "Mostly" as Expected
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 lower Dec meal: 1.20 lower Dec soyoil: 20 higher Dec corn: 2 higher Sep. wheat: 1 lower The markets ope...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 676,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 10 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Co...
Technical Views - Only Oil Higher
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 81.84c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.15%. Sep/Dec corn widens out to new lows at 11c from 10 1/2c. August/N...
AM Outlook - Inter-market Spread Activity
GOOD MORNING, Inter-market spread activity continues. Buy soyoil/sell meal and unwinding of recent buy wheat/sell corn are in play. Soyoi...
The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand
The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on it...
Currency Manipulation; Phase One Intentions; India Recognizing Ag Policy Constraints
Currency Manipulation Goldman Sachs is warning that the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency is at risk. Threats include inflation,...
Sorghum’s Ups and Downs
The U.S. sorghum crop is the world's largest and this year's output is suffering from overly dry conditions. USDA's crop condition rating is 53 percen...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened lower with continued pressure from excellent corn/soybean conditions ratings and increased chatter about above-trendline or record yields t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2625/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.3275/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&...
PM Post - Sideways/Lower on S&D Imbalance
THE OPEN November beans: 4 lower December meal: 1.80 lower December soyoil: 25 higher December corn: 3/4 lower September wheat: 5 1/2 hig...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock U.S. Beef Exports Continue on Record Run When 2020 finally comes to an end, it will likely be remembered as the year when U.S. beef and beef prod...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 July 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic market hit bottom and started growing in some regions. Meanwhile, on the export market...
Ag Review - July 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers such topics as the recovery in cattle pri...
AM Outlook - Looking for Buy Signals
GOOD MORNING, Prices were on the defensive with the market unable to ignore 3% better ratings on Monday for corn and beans. The majority of cor...
Technical Views - All Over the Board
SPREADS Sep. crush trades higher to 80.65c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.87%. The nearby August /Nov bean inverse still remains firm at 9 1/4c...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened lower overnight as USDA’s surprise increase in the good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans pressured the market. Wheat followed...
Notable Viewpoints; CPC GMO’s
Notable Viewpoints A Bloomberg session today on saving global trade brought some interesting viewpoints from former trade officials as well as China topic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.3/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Corn Price Floor
As surplus corn stocks begin to build, U.S. farmers start to think about price and their return on investment. This is likely why the June USDA crop planti...
PM Post - Opportunistic Buyers are Watching
THE OPEN November beans: 13 lower December meal: 3.50 lower December soyoil: 46 lower December corn: 4 lower September wheat: ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The recent USDA-FAS report on Saudi Arabia’s barley trade says Arasco Saudi is marketing comp...
Technical Views - Near Some Breaking Points
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 77.82c/bu while oilshare weakens down to 33.37%. The feature of the morning is the bean inverse, where August / Nov trad...
AM Outlook - Progress Report Tests Range Lows
GOOD MORNING, Prices were lower for most of the markets as crop progress ratings improved more than expected, and corn and beans entered a mostly negative...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a weaker note with corn, soybeans and wheat trading lower Sunday night and into Monday morning. Monday’s opening bell, however, sa...
Upcoming Battle Over Relief Bill; Previewing Staggering GDP Report
The Republican majority in the Senate is set to unveil its latest round of COVID-19 relief. At this point it looks to be a $1 trillion package and will set...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.345/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&...
Beef Growth and Decline
Beef is expensive to produce, emits the most greenhouse gases, is highly cultural in some places and has a highly evolving demand structure. Over the past...
Nail on the Head; Roll Your Own; Filipino Fraud; Hot Air Bus
Nail on the Head Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) and Cory Booker (New Jersey) teamed up on a report excoriating the meat industry over...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat area received some rain last week (15-50 mm) but precipitation was isolated to the southern agricultural area. The effect is...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summe...
PM Post - Range Bound Amid the Negative
THE OPEN November beans: 1 higher December meal; 2.30 higher December soyoil: 32 lower December corn: 3/4 higher September wheat: 6...
Technical Views - Soy Higher; Grains Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 75.40c/bu, while oilshare trades back below 34.0% to 33.44%. The nearby bean August/Nov inverse congests from 5 1/2c to...
AM Outlook - Mixed Ahead of Crop Conditions
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today as crop ratings will be released at 3:00 PM central time, and they are expected to show stable to perhaps better ratin...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports as Expected
Two key cattle reports came out this afternoon after the market close, Cattle on Feed and the semi-annual Cattle Inventory. The Cattle on Feed report was l...
Market Commentary
The CBOT traded a mixed day to close the week with higher wheat futures the only pronounced development. Rising cash wheat values in Russia (up $1-5/MT dep...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Platform Analysis; Ideological War
Platform Analysis A draft of the Democrats’ Party Platform for this year’s election repeats past policy promises for agriculture, most of which...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.35/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. N...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million head on July 1, 2020. The inventory was slightly below July 1, 2019. However,...
PM Post - Opened as Expected
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 higher December meal: .30 lower December soyoil: 17 higher December corn: 1 higher September whe...
Building a Poultry Industry
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poult...
Technical Views - Up Day Except Meal
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 74.85c while oilshare trade back under 34.0% to 33.81% this Am. Corn spreads weaken a bit. THere is a negative sea...
AM Outlook - Bean Bull Profit-taking; Corn Bear Short-covering
GOOD MORNING, Prices inched higher this morning with beans, corn, and wheat hitting new highs for the move up. Wheat is in the lead today...
Market Commentary
If not for good export sales, futures prices would be pressured even lower. Cheap prices are encouraging some of China’s purchases. Moreover, a weake...
Livestock Round Up: Anticipating Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 July at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.355/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Theater of the Absurd
Robinhood: Proving that it is easy to give away other peoples’ money, the United Nations Development Program is proposing the payment of a temporary...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Sales to China Amid Tension; Malaysia Palm
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed exporters had great success selling U.S. soybeans for export in the week end...
PM Post - Corn and Bean Seesaw
THE OPEN November beans: 2 higher December meal: .60 higher December soyoil: 21 higher December corn: 1 1/2 lower September wheat:&...
Technical Views - Soy Higher, Grains Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 74.39c/bu while oilshare is slightly firmer at 34.18%. Nearby bean spreads strengthen with August /Nov trading to new hi...
Mid-Summer Issues and Observations
Grain and soy futures prices have been relatively quiet and range-bound lately with the exception of soyoil. Soyoil futures were trading slightly lower yes...
AM Outlook - Sales Live up to Expectations
GOOD MORNING, The soy complex continues to build on gains after two days of market weakness. December soyoil follows a sharply higher palm oil...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 616,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 24 percent from the prior 4-week avera...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured...
Lip Ripper; Relational Tipping Point
Lip Ripper Lip Ripper is the name one callous fisherman gave to his boat and reflects somewhat the attitude of some developing countries. The WTO will laun...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Pork Price and Poultry Price Ease on Rising Supply According to the provincial bureaus for agricultural and rural affairs in Sichua...
Cattlemen Dinged on Leather
The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed demand for fashion generally and this has reverberated to the leather industry. The hide, which is the largest component o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 July 2020 Harvest progressed so most of the regions quoted prices for 2020 grain. As a result the general price development on...
PM Post - Constructive Trade (Sales Beat Fears)
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: .10 higher December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 1 higher September wheat: 3 1/2...
Technical Views - Beans Lower; Corn/Wheat Higher
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 75.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.23%. August/Nov beans trades to a new high inverse of 5c before closing at 3 3/4c,...
AM Outlook - Bearish But Wheat Rallying
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with beans and soyoil lower, grains firmer. More longs are liquidating length in beans due to the turn to...
COVID-19 Relief, Personal Income and Inflation
As we reported yesterday, Senate Republicans were expected to develop and unveil proposals for the next round of coronavirus relief legislation as early as...
Cancel Culture on Policy
The use of public shaming and destroying individuals or entities disfavored by activists has become highly fashionable but it has been around in food and a...
Helpful But Lagged Livestock Help
Hog prices were down more than 35 percent from a year ago and industry analyst Steve Meyer of Kerns & Associates says the sector is incurring the great...
Market Commentary
Row crops were weaker overnight, pressured by favorable statistics from yesterday’s Crop Progress report, and that weakness extended into the day ses...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.3075/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nb...
PM Post - Production Weighs on Market
THE OPEN November beans: 6 1/4 lower December meal: 2.50 lower December soyoil: 1 lower December corn: 2 lower September wheat:&nbs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran’s government has purchased 6 MMT of local wheat on its way to a total of 11 MMT. The whe...
Technical Views - Looking for Buiness
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 76.04c/bu while oilshare trades lower, back to test 34.0% once again. The bean inverse remains well bid with August/Nov...
AM Outlook - Only Wheat Higher
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly lower this morning after better than expected crop ratings were released. Wheat prices broke lower yesterday as this...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on the defensive overnight and traded that way heading into the opening bell. The lone exception was soybeans, which finished 3¼ cen...
Yankee Chutzpa; Chlorinated Cars
Yankee Chutzpa Washington is reportedly asking the WTO for permission to impose retaliatory tariffs against China for the latter’s failure to reduce...
Congress to Begin Debate on Spending Bills This Week
The House will take up a “mini-bus” appropriations bill on Thursday this week; it is a combination of the FY 2021 appropriations bills for the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.3575/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Cocoa Canary
Given their inelasticity, staple agricultural commodities are a poor indicator of economic health. However, luxury food items like cocoa may be a better in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Crop Rotation Trends There was an interesting report from the Rosario Grain Exchange noting that crop rotations (soybeans versus corn or wheat) in the core...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European and Black Sea wheat and summer crop markets are largely in wait-and-see mode regarding 2020 Northern Hemisphere supplies...
PM Post - Buy Beans/Sell Grain
THE OPEN November beans: 1 higher December meal: 1.50 lower December soyoil: 25 higher December corn: 3 1/2 lower September wheat:...
Technical Views - Mixed Ranges
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 75.16c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.57%. Spreads are firm with the Aug/Nov bean inverse trading tto 3 3/4c from 2 1/2c...
AM Outlook - Buy Beans/Sell Corn
GOOD MORNING, The main trend that started last week, namely firm bean and soyoil trade, continued in the PM session trade. Bean prices continue to se...
Phase One Status; Small Beer
Phase One Status China’s Foreign Ministry yesterday said it remains committed to the Phase One trade deal it reached with the U.S. but warned it will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.3975/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were sideways/slightly higher to end the week as trading interest remained limited. Corn and soybeans finished with modest gains while the soy...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Highest Monthly Inflation in a Decade – That’s Good
There was a lot of interesting economic data released this week showing month over month changes that indicate the economy is picking back up – albei...
Eat Poultry, Trade Pork
The joint OECD/FAO annual Agricultural Outlook report issued yesterday says that global meat consumption will grow by 12 percent over the coming decade (20...
PM Post - Heat On; Crop Knowledge Next Week
THE OPEN November beans: 4 higher December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 38 higher December corn: 1 3/4 higher September wheat:&...
Technical Views - Firm Fun
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 73.12c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.0%. August/Nov bean inverse trades from 2 1/2c to 1c, with Sep/Nov trading tradi...
AM Outlook - Shopping for Breaks and Profits
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher this morning except for meal. Look for the markets to be choppy as new longs may book profits while others loo...
WTO Leadership Criteria; Self-Reliance
WTO Leadership Criteria Candidates to become the next leader of the WTO have begun taking turns before the body and pitching why they should be selected. J...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Market and Hamburger Market
Last week, three Iowa Members of the House of Representatives – Representatives Cindy Axne, Abby Finkenauer and Dave Loebsack, all Democrats –...
Market Commentary
There are several conflicting signals confronting the market. At the macro level, U.S. retail sales rose 7.5 percent in June with robust sales of automobil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; NOPA Soy Crush; Argentine Export Taxes; India Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights – China Buying A Lot of U.S. Soybeans Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters had fairly goo...
Food Service Sales Lag Broader Economic Recovery
New data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows food service sales lagged the pace of broader economic recovery in June. Total retail sales increas...
PM Post - Profit Taking and Short-covering
THE OPEN November beans: 4 1/4 higher December meal: 1.30 higher December soyoil: 5 higher December corn: 2 higher September wheat:...
Technical Views - Mixed Trading
SPREADS Sep. crush slides to 70c/bu while oilshare trades at 33.30%. Bean spreads remain very strong. August/Nov bean inverse...
AM Outlook - Weather and Sales Both Good
GOOD MORNING, Good weather continues to show us the bottom of recent trading ranges while fresh demand keeps prices on the up and up. China continues...
The Summer of Our Discontent
It was not supposed to be this way. Our collective efforts at social distancing, washing hands, wearing face masks and self-quarantining when necessary wer...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 764,400 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and up 77 percent from t...
Government Outsourcing; Underrepresented for a Reason; Even a Kid Knows
Governments Outsourcing The German government is complaining that companies are failing to meet regulatory mandates for ecological and social standards in...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets opened as called with corn and wheat working lower to test support. SRW wheat futures quickly turned higher, however, as the bullish pennant f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.34/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, up $0.24 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Pork Price Continues to Climb, White Feather Broilers Up The latest data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affai...
PM Post - Solid Wheat Boost
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 higher December meal: .90 lower December soyoil: 20 higher December corn: 2 1/2 lower September wheat:...
Food versus Fiber
A common debate about a decade ago was framed as food versus fuel; should crops traditionally used for food instead be converted into biofuel, especially d...
Technical Views - Mixed Ranges
SPREADS Sep. rush trades to 74.07c/bu while oilshare bounces to 33.38%. Nearby spreads remain firm with Sep/Dec corn narrowing into 7 1/4 from 7 3/4c...
AM Outlook - In Ranges
GOOD MORNING, Prices remain in trading ranges as weather turns hot with big storms across the Northern Plains. Prospects are looking better and bette...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 July 2020 Harvesting started in more regions, so the prices were mainly quoted for 2020 grain, and the general price developmen...
Market Commentary
The overnight session looked like a Turnaround Tuesday would develop, but despite news of the fourth largest daily corn sale on record, the CBOT remained u...
China’s COVID Food Protectionism; Lazy Thinking II
China’s COVID Food Protectionism Under the pretense of preventing the spread of the coronavirus, China is requiring more intensive inspection of impo...
Biden Climate Change Plan Includes Packers and Stockyards Enforcement
We wrote yesterday about U.S.- China diplomacy and trade in the presidential campaign, based on presumptive Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Bi...
China Should Buy More Meat
In its recent WASDE report, USDA increased its estimate for meat production this year by 3 percent to 106 billion pounds, and forecasts output in 2021 at 1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.3375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.2675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...
PM Post - As Expected but Corn Pressured
THE OPEN November beans: 2 higher December meal: .10 higher December soyoil: 18 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher September wheat:...
Technical Views - All Higher
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 72.56c/bu while oilshare trades up to 33.0%. Would look for soyoil to continue to gain on meal today. Sep/De...
AM Outlook - Bounce on Conditions
Prices are firmer this morning with ratings slipping more than expected providing a fairly typical turn-around Tuesday trade. WEATHER Temperatu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s SAGO has sold parts of two of the four flour milling operations covered...
China is Officially a Presidential Campaign Issue
Both President Trump and Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden have set their rhetorical sights on China policy as the 2020 Presidential campa...
Blame Democracy; Meat Cancel Culture; Quotable
Blame Democracy Economists Massimo Pulejo and Pablo Querubín of New York University basically conclude that elections made the coronavirus outbreak...
New Corn Strategy
Economists at FarmDocDaily point out in an article entitled, “World Market Conditions Suggest Set-Asides Not an Effective Farm Policy for Corn and So...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.365/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with Friday’s WASDE confirming that, without a weather event in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, corn...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Lack of rains and soil moisture is still complicating wheat planting and the expected record crop may not happen. The Buenos Aires Grain exchange red...
PM Post - Commercials Gain on Lower Markets
THE OPEN November beans: 7 1/2 lower December meal: 4.30 lower December soyoil: 10 lower December corn: 7 3/4 lower September wheat...
Technical Views - Adjusting Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 73.94c/bu while oilshare is trading at 32.51%. Sep/Dec corn trades out to 8 1/4c from 6 1/2c. Sep./Dec wheat trade...
AM Outlook - Pinging a Lower Range
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board after the July WASDE made only marginal cuts to production estimates. The bottom line is that unless...
WASDE Soyoil
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last mont...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increa...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 8...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. corn is for lower ending stocks. For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on re...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised...
Small, Slow and Inefficient
As noted previously, there is increasing attention to what a Biden Administration will mean to both agriculture and broader economic policy. It is not so m...
Market Commentary
It seemed clear at the start of the day that this a weather market, and that today’s WASDE would contain few surprises. For the most part that remain...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.4475/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...
USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline
Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler...
PM Post - Wheatie Surprise
THE OPEN November beans: 1/4 lower December meal: .70 lower December soyoil: 19 higher December corn: 1 lower September wheat: ...
Cattle Price Recovery Boosts Cow/Calf Profitability
Declining feed costs and higher prices for feeder cattle and cull cows have lifted WPI’s expectations of cow/calf profitability for 2020. Compared to...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report
SPREADS Sep. crush trades top 76.35c/bu while oilshare is a steady 32.33%. Spreads are firmer with Sep/Dec corn narrowing into 7 3/4c from 8 1/2c.&nb...
AM Outlook - Weather More than WASDE
GOOD MORNING, It is report day and all the markets have been on good rallies. Report time is 11:00 central. The crop yields are not expected to...
Future Ag Policy; English Accent
Future Ag Policy Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden released his Build Back Better economic agenda and while it ignores some progressi...
Market Commentary
There was lots of gnashing of teeth as market calculations swung between possibly threatening weather conditions, seeming positive demand and a WASDE repor...
Livestock Round Up
The May export numbers were released this week; plant shutdowns which hit beef and pork packing plants reduced export totals month over month compared to A...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.57/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. N...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Aquaculture Investment; Paraguay Soybeans
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed a major increase in U.S. export sales of soybeans both for the current marketing...
PM Post - Position Evening Ahead of Report
THE OPEN November beans: 10 1/2 higher December meal: 4.40 higher December soyoil: 14 higher December corn: 6 3/4 higher September...
The Dog Days of Summer
The ancient Greeks associated the rising brightness in the nighttime sky of Sirius, the Dog Star, with the arrival of summer heat and humidity. Sirius woul...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 326,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021. Corn: Net sales of 599,200 MT...
Technical Views - Chop Ahead of the Report
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 76.89c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.43%. Sep/Dec corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 8c, while Sep/Dec wheat trades in...
AM Outlook - Weather Push
GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this as temperatures next week are forecast to be hotter than this week. Rains are crossing parts of the Midwest, but it is...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls for Fourth Straight Month Average food prices continued to decline in May as the cost of fresh vegetables, fresh fruit,...
Wheat Market Tightening
The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.5425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary June Activity Surge Led by Corn, Egg, Palm, and Soybean Futures After the slowdown in May, trading volumes for agricultural futures on the...
PM Post - Wheat Whets the Market
THE OPEN November beans: 4 3/4 lower December meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 9 lower December corn: 1 3/4 lower September wheat:...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2020 Harvesting was in progress and in the South and Volga Valley regions prices decreased. Yet, the decrease is not...
Technical Views - Mostly Lower in Ranges
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 76.68/barrel while oilshare moves up to 32.87% on soyoil strength. Could look for further oilshare strength today, and m...
AM Outlook - Mostly Lower
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly lower as the July 10 WASDE is ready to open with a new set of new numbers for market digestion. Weather remains hot a...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a defensive note Tuesday with generally favorable/steady crop conditions ratings for key corn/soy producing states reducing the need for...
The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes
The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too c...
Appropriations and More COVID-19 Aid: How to Handle?
The House Agriculture Subcommittee approved its version of the FY 2021 ag appropriations bill. The measure will now move to the full committee - currently...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.525/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Importance of Market Tools
It has been a wild year for U.S. pork producers. It started out dreary but then hopes picked up when the Phase One agreement was signed with China. It agai...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt and Pakistan are working on the possibility of Egypt importing meat and dairy products...
PM Post - Weathered Lower
THE OPEN November beans: 2 1/2 lower December meal: steady December soyoil: 33 lower December corn: 4 lower December wheat: 3...
Technical Views - Marching the Numbers
SPREADS Sep. crush trades up to 77c/bu while oilshare values are weaker at 32.19%. Spreads are slightly wider with Sep/Dec. corn trading out to...
AM Outlook - Chart Back-filling
GOOD MORNING, Prices are generally lower this morning on neutral crop progress conditions and chart back-filling from recent highs. Oilshare continue...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a firm note with a long holiday weekend filled with dry weather for most of the U.S. offering support. This week’s forecast was in...
Future U.S. Trade Policy
Based on the current trajectory, there will be a new U.S. president in 2021, but how will it change American trade policy? For one, there will be less arbi...
USDA Food Box Upends the FMMO Dairy
USDA extended the contracts for a second round of the Food Box Distribution program last week; the new round will run through 30 August. There were 205 con...
China’s Corn Policy Bites
China has adjusted its government stockpile auction system in an incomplete effort to cool over-heated demand and prices for its reserve corn. High bid rat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.465/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn market keeps breaking records. June ended with corn exports of 4.3 MMT, by far the highest ever. The accumulated volume exporte...
PM Post - Possible Further Strength Ahead
THE OPEN November beans: 12 higher December meal: 4.30 higher December soyoil: 33 higher December corn: 5 1/4 higher December wheat...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The June shift from dry to wet weather patterns for Europe’s crop-growing regions have substantially boosted crop conditions. At...
AM Outlook - All About the Weather
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board with weather the overriding factor, as conditions turn warmer and drier. The funds continue to be ne...
Technical Views - Look for Strong Opening
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 75.93c/bu while oilshare trades down to 32.36%. August/Nov beans trades from 6 1/4c to 8c carry. Sep/Dec meal trad...
Happy Fourth of July
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday 3 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our n...
Livestock Round Up
The Livestock and Meat trade data will be released Monday after the holiday weekend; it will likely show exports way down in May reflecting the COVID-19 im...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 414,300 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021. Corn: Net sales of 361,100 MT for 2019/202...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.435/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.92/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Food Sovereignty at the Top; Recoupling EU Ag; Farm Bill 2023
Food Sovereignty at the Top EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski thinks free trade and specialization are the problems in modern agriculture. H...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Exports; EU Soy Imports; U.S. Minor Oilseeds; China Soy Stocks
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed the week ending 25 June was a very disappointing one for exporters of U.S. s...
Where Have All the Acres Gone?
We recall commenting a short while ago that the fundamental outlook for corn and corn prices was relentlessly bearish. We cited a very large U.S. corn crop...
Pessimism Reigns
Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any re...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.505/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. N...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining t...
The PM POST: Achieving Technical Highs
THE OPEN: November beans: 6 1/4 higher December meal: 4.20 higher December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 7 higher September wheat: 3 1/4 higher Th...
A Pork Story
The U.S. hog inventory on 1 June was 79.6 million head, up 5.2 percent from a year ago. The supply is likely to stay elevated through the rest of the year...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 June 2020 The southern regions wheat and barley prices decreased as harvesting began. However, the decrease is not dramatic as...
Technical Views - Reacting Higher
SPREADS Sep. crush trades at 77.44c/bu while oilshare weakens to 32.43%. Sep/Dec corn trades from 9c to 9 3/4c. Sep/Dec wheat narrows into 6 1/...
AM Outlook - Digesting the Data
NOTE: There will be no Technical Perspectives reports on 2 July. GOOD MORNING, Funds entered the June Quarterly Stocks/Acreage report with a record short c...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. USDA handed the market an unwaveringly bullish ac...
Imperfect Subsidies Calculation
The latest edition of the OECD’s annual report entitled Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation highlights an important problem but undermines...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends u...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.415/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Where the Acres Went
Planted acres usually shift amongst crops but they do not typically go completely fallow, at least not to the scale in today’s USDA acreage report. S...
PM Post - Surprises Add Bang for the Buck
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .30 higher Dec soyoil: 8 lower Sep. corn: 2 1/2 higher Sep. wheat: 1 1/2 higher The ma...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Pakistan, it appears likely that the government will import as much as 1.4 MMT of wheat. Interna...
Technical Views - Diverse Influences
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.74%. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 7-7 3/4c. The July/Dec corn spread trades from 8...
AM Outlook - About to Get Smarter
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board to begin the day on a technical correction. The funds remain big grain shorts and near record...
Coming UK-U.S. Trade War
British farmers are increasingly distraught over the prospect of having to compete against American farmers under any transatlantic trade deal. They and th...
Pork Prices Lower
China continues to import pork and the attraction may grow even greater later this year. Former Iowa Farm Bureau economist David Miller says the COVID-hit...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. Short covering and position adjusting were the th...
Happy USMCA Day – Enjoy it While it Lasts
On Wednesday 1 July, the new USMCA will enter into force, and potentially lead to a lot more North American trade disputes than we’ve seen in the pas...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.865/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Planting progressed 13 percent last week with 71 percent of the expected area now seeded thanks to dry weather. There are still some areas in norther...
PM Post - Retracement and Weather
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 lower December meal: .30 higher December soyoil: 6 lower September corn: 3 1/4 higher September wheat:...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources...
Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Reports
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 76.65c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.34%. Jul/Dec corn trades to 8 1/2c carry from 6 1/4c, with Jly/Sep trading f...
AM Outlook - Short-covering and Selling
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with short-covering in corn and wheat, and continued selling of oilshare. China is back from holida...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its weaker trend Friday with funds again emerging as net sellers and any longs liquidating their positions. Corn and wheat futures poste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.17/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Buying Food; Ethanol and Emissions; Food System and China Buys
Buying Food USDA is forecasting that grocery prices will rise by 3 percent this year, the largest increase since 2011 and mostly due to animal proteins. Th...
Meat Consumption Flew
USDA estimates that global meat and pork consumption last year fell by 6 percent and will be down another 4.6 percent in 2020. By contrast, global poultry...
PM Post - Corn and Wheat Defensive
THE OPEN November beans: 5 lower Dec meal: 1.30 lower Dec soyoil: 11 lower Sep. corn: 1/2 higher Sep wheat: 14 lower The markets op...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment a...
Technical Views - Lower But Corn Steady
SPREADS Sep. crush falls to 79.38c/bu while oilsahre trades steady at 32.60%. July/Dec corn widens back out to 11 1/4c with July/Sep. weaker at...
AM Outlook - Beautiful Growing Weather
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with short-covering in corn and lower prices elsewhere. Prices started out in the PM session on a strong...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 518,700 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021. Corn: Net sales of 461,700 MT for 20...
Political Economics
Political economy is economics as a branch of knowledge or academic discipline; political economics is what politicians use when they need red meat rhetori...
Market Commentary
The day started out negative, supposedly over increased COVID-19 cases but the situation is more complicated. This ignores other demand destroyers like eco...
Livestock Round Up: Hog Herd up 5 Percent, Fat Hogs up 13 Percent
USDA released a bearish quarterly Hogs and Pigs report this afternoon, with all categories coming in above the consensus pre-report expectations. The repor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.1725/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.8825/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Vicentin; China COVID-19 Request
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was positive for soybeans and soyoil, but not so much for soymeal sales. However, soymea...
PM Post - Down Day Posts New Low
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 lower Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 27 lower Sep corn: 3 3/4 lower Sep wheat: 2 lower The markets opened as...
Technical Views - Down and Going Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 80.56/bu while oilshare trends lower at 32.44% from values over 33.0%. July/Dec corn narrows into 8 1/2c, the highest le...
AM Outlook - Bears are Winning
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower on the back of good weather and continued worries over China/US trade relations. Nearby bean and corn spreads remain w...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly...
British Stockholm Syndrome; Imbalanced COVID Policies
British Stockholm Syndrome The UK announced a “bounce back” plan to recapture post-Brexit export share for the country’s farmers. It invo...
Corn Imports Grow
Global corn imports continue to expand but increases by Vietnam and the EU standout. Mexico remains a major market, but imports are growing at roughly the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2425/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.8575/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close...
China In-Country Analysis
Rural Policy China’s Western Provinces Continue to Lag Behind A new three-part investigate report by the South China Morning Post has been covering B...
PM Post - Ags Defensive on Weather and Outside Markets
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 1/2 lower Dec soyoil: 23 lower Dec meal: 1.20 higher Sep. corn: 1/4 lower Sep. wheat: 1 1/2 lower The markets opened as called with...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 June 2020 The southern regions feed barley prices started decreasing as 2020 yield price became clearer. Other grain prices mo...
Technical Views - Interesting Day
SPREADS Sep. crush trades down to 80.33c/bu while oilshare is back under 33.0% to trade to 32.77%. The key feature as far as spread activity goes is...
AM Outlook - Trading Ranges Continue
GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed this AM as rains continue to cross the Midwest capping off rallies. China remains around the bean market with pro...
Exports to China: Cold Storage and COVID Containment
Record Pork Draw on Cold Storage Stocks Yesterday, USDA released the monthly cold storage report. As of 1 June, inventory of pork in cold storage was 467 m...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were spooked early this morning after U.S. Presidential aide Peter Navarro commented that the U.S.-China Phase One trade deal was “over&...
Rigged Self-Sufficiency; Glypho-ruse
Rigged Self-Sufficiency U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer shared his protectionist views with members of the House Ways and Means Committee last...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.25/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.91/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Food is Secure, For Now
EU Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius says that Europe is now food secure and that sustainability and environment should take primacy over pro...
PM Post - Waiting on Bean Purchases; Corn Weather
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 lower July meal: .10 lower July soyoil: 15 lower Sep. corn: 4 lower Sep. wheat: 4 lower Prices opened a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA According to the June EU MARS report, there are variable weather conditions for the cereal ca...
Technical Views - Sideways Congestion
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 81.28c/bu after falling under 80c/bu yesterday. Sep. oilshare bounces back to trade to 33.09%. Bean bullspre...
AM Outlook - Various Reports Influence Market
GOOD MORNING, The weather and a big report at the end of June are guiding price action but the news cycle actually triggered a larger break yesterday. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic and Policy Situation Things are generally becoming more complicated in Argentina. After nearly 90 days of COVID-19 quarantines/lock...
Market Commentary
Monday’s CBOT trade was quiet with corn leading to the downside as funds continue to be net sellers. Soybean futures traded a mixed day with early sh...
June Cold Storage Report
The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and intrepretation for the latest Cold Storage report, published 22 June 2020 by the USDA. Briefly,...
COVID Limits DC; Calculating 3 November
COVID Limits DC Washington Trade Daily has long tracked the trade-related machinations in Washington but there has been less to follow as the city’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $4.85/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA w...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week’s rainfall across western Europe was in-line with predictions and helped improve crop conditions in eastern Europe, tho...
PM Post - Bearish Weather Beats Bullish Exports
THE OPEN November beans: 2 1/4 lower July meal: .90 lower July soyoil: 1 lower September corn: 3 lower September wheat: 2 3/4...
Rice Glass House
Both Brazil and the U.S. have issued protests over a Thai legal ban against imported commodities and food with residues of the weed killer paraquat and the...
Technical Views - Headed Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades at 81.48c/bu while oilshare trades over 33.0% to 33.15%. July/Dec corn narrows to 12 3/4c from 13 1/4c, while Jul/Sep...
AM Outlook - Weather Bearish
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this AM as the Midwest saw a decent amount of rainfall over the weekend. Wheat prices trade near the lowest level sinc...
Cattle on Feed
USDA Reported U.S. Cattle on Feed at 11.7 million head - the second highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Bearish COF: Near Record Inventory, Record Low Marketings
USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11,671,000 head, down only sli...
Market Commentary
The soy complex led the CBOT higher while corn traded a mixed day and wheat continued to post new lows for its current move. Modest short covering occurred...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...
Challenging COVID Subsidies; Wheat’s Weapon
Challenging COVID Subsidies There has been an increase in the use of agricultural subsidies by several countries and that is especially true as governments...
Late Acres Switching to Soybeans
The recent rally in soybean prices versus the possible record shorts in corn could encourage late planted acres previously planned for maize to switch over...
PM Post - Higher Beans, Lower Wheat, Corn in the Middle
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 higher July meal: 1.10 higher July soyoil: 59 higher July corn: 2 1/4 higher July wheat: 1 lower The ma...
Technical Views - Only Wheat in Downtrend
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 84.51c/bu while oilshare rises to 33.12% on higher energies and palm oil prices. Nearby spreads strengthen; July/August...
AM Outlook - Risk-on All Around
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher led by the soy complex, with soyoil and bean prices hitting new highs for the move upward. Beans hit 2-month highs and spre...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 504,800 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021. Corn: Net sales of 357,800 MT...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.31/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $4.835/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Livestock Round Up: Wide Gap in Estimates of Cattle Placed on Feed in May
USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 June at...
Market Commentary
The term for today’s market action is “mixed,” in several different ways, and is probably why volume was lower. The pushing and shoving a...
Fire Propellant
Aiming several broadsides at Europe, fire propellant would be the term to describe USTR Robert Lighthizer’s testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday. He a...
PM Post - China, Weather
THE OPEN Nov beans; 1/4 lower July meal: .30 lower July soyoil: 3 lower Sep. corn: 1/2 higher Sep. wheat: 3/4 lower Prices st...
Technical Views - Some Willing Sellers
SPREADS Sep. crush trades down to 82.30c/bu while oilshare trades up to 32.80%. Nearby spreads remain firm. Jul/Dec corn narrows into 12 1/2c f...
AM Outlook - Higher Start But Mixed Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the morning higher across the board. Bean prices chopped everyone up on Wed., breaking hard on virus concerns, and then ra...
After the Virus, Clouds of Locusts
So far 2020 has been difficult, to put it mildly. It started out on a high note with an apparent truce between the U.S. and China when the Phase One trade...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.3025/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $4.8875/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&...
Trade Policy Evolution
The U.S. is staking out policy positions that will further shake up global trade policy. The latest from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer includ...
Market Commentary
CBOT futures started the overnight session on a mixed note but turned lower as the night wore on. The opening bell brought with it aggressive selling in so...
Dairy Everywhere
Milk producers express more angst over the economic situation than other commodity producers, yet their production is largely inline with consumption. For...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Covid-19 Resurfaces in Beijing, Xinfadi Market Closed Through this morning, 137 new novel coronavirus’s have been linked to Xinfadi&nbs...
PM Post - Bean and Oil Turnaround
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 lower July meal: 1.50 lower July soyoil: 24 lower Sep corn: 2 1/2 lower Sep wheat: 4 1/2 lower Prices s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 June 2020 Corn prices on the domestic market mainly grew (as 2020 yield is still far away), barley prices mostly decreased (as...
Technical Views - Rains Push Things Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 84.90c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.63%. July/Dec corn narrows into 14c from 14 1/2c while July/Sep trades from...
AM Outlook - Rain on the Bulls
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the day mostly lower as forecasts begin to show agreement among weather models that there will be a good rain event after this b...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets started on a firm note with corn leading the way after yesterday afternoon’s surprising decline in corn conditions ratings. The ratings...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget...
Greens Flip on GMO’s; Surveys on China and Food
Greens Flip on GMO’s Greens have led the charge against agricultural biotechnology. They have successfully vilified the science to the point that maj...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.29/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $4.96/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...
PM Post - Beans, Corn Up; Wheat Down
THE OPEN July beans: 3 higher July meal: .20 higher July soyoil: 41 higher July corn: 2 higher July wheat: 1 1/2 lower The ma...
COVID Impacts on Poultry
As a major supplier of poultry to the Chinese market, Brazilian poultry experienced the pull of COVID-spiked demand back in March and April of this year. C...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan has lifted the ban on the interprovincial transport of wheat and has also removed th...
Technical Views - Edging Up
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 86.26c/bu while oilshare trades at 32.73%. Nearby corn spreads firm with July/Dec trading back into 12c from 12 3/4c, whi...
AM Outlook - Adding a Weather Premium
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher this morning with everything in the green. Commodities are higher with stocks up following Monday's late session adva...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with short covering driving SRW wheat and soyoil higher. Corn and soybeans were lower as weaker energies highlighted ethanol demand risk an...
Monetizing Climate Change
Back in November 2018, after the release of the National Climate Assessment report (a Congressionally mandated document under the Global Change Research Ac...
“Game Theory” Triangle
The British famously coined the phrase “Keep Calm and Carry On” in WWII and are renown for displaying fortitude and stoicism in the face of adv...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...
Sunny Sunflower Situation
USDA forecasts that global sunflower oil imports will decline in 2020/21 but that may not be the outcome for a few reasons. One is the impact of the corona...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Government Takeover of Soy Crusher Vicentin Last week, Argentina’s government announced it would intervene in the bankruptcy of one of the nation&rsq...
PM Post - Funds Dig Deeper on Corn
THE OPEN July beans: 7 lower July meal: 1.80 lower July soyoil: 45 lower July corn: 2 1/2 lower July wheat: 2 1/2 lower The m...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather has turned more favorable in recent weeks and last week’s saw widespread showers. Parts of central France,...
Technical Views - Headed Lower
SPREADS August crush trades to 70.19c/bu while oilshare trades back below 32.0% to 31.99%. Spreads narrow with July/Dec futures trading into 12 1/4c...
AM Outlook - Funds/Commercials Near Record Split
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night on the defensive led by beans and soyoil, with wheat lower on harvest pressure and still digesting a bearish USDA re...
Monetary Policy, the Economy and COVID
The stock market rebounded partially today from a drop yesterday, which came amidst news of more COVID cases and the release of the notes from the Federal...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a firm note with soybeans leading the way higher on export business news. Long soybeans/short wheat trade developed early in the day and...