The sowing of some key commodities is down, and the major crops affected include pulses, coarse cereals and corn. There are two reasons for this, and it wi...
Articles
Thoughts from a Montana Farmer
The spring wheat harvest is quickly winding down, and a large farmer from eastern Montana recently sent some comments about his crop and what he (and his n...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
NAFTA Renegotiation Begins
In the U.S., there have been winners and losers under NAFTA, much as there have been in Mexico and Canada. That is the nature of trade. Perhaps the biggest...
Market Commentary
Weather has returned as the driver for soybean futures prices since recent rains missed the very dry parts of Iowa and central Illinois. Meabwhile, funds c...
Fake FTA News; Poop Data
The truth is, there is nothing unique about the U.S.-Chile FTA. Trade agreements affect trade flows, but they cannot fully explain trade balances. Fake FTA...
Exports Up in First Half of 2017; EPA-Proposed Biofuel Rule Hints at Changing DDGS in the Future
Exports helped both beef and pork maintain strong prices so far in 2017 despite supply increases, and the EPA-proposed biofuel rule hints at potential chan...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Its grain exports are higher than a year ago as Russia completes a project in the Kerch Straight that will limit the size of vessels transporting car...
Market Commentary
Follow-through selling pushed grain and soy prices slightly lower early in the overnight session, but enough buying returned to the technically oversold ma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
Two developments last week caused China's estimated average crush margin to rise sharply to RMB 108/MT ($16.20/MT), an improvement of RMB 111/MT ($16.66/MT...
NAFTA Reality; Farming Reality
Many of those starting up small and local farms are first-time farmers, but it is a fad that is unlikely to last for economic and labor reasons. NAFTA Real...
NAFTA Hot Spots; S&D Duh!
As NAFTA renegotiations get underway this week, there is plenty of eye poking occurring. Meanwhile, the GAO investigated the compliance of U.S. food aid pr...
Post-Report Questions
The fact that the August WASDE pictured crop prospects in the U.S. and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere as being generally better than private analysts...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) has announced that field trials for GM maize and cotton will start in October 2017, which is contrary to the eff...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soybeans; Ukraine’s Soy Exports; Biodiesel Dumping Case, India’s Vegoil Imports
Officials in Argentina have determined the average protein content of the country’s 2017 soybean crop is below the 20-year average for the fourth year in a...
Market Commentary
Reverberations from last Thursday’s bearish WASDE together with the since-added prospects for rain over a good portion of the central U.S., including the v...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The quality of French milling wheat is higher than normal with average protein around 12 percent, but exports are lagging quite a bit this year becau...
Rhetoric = Trade War
Last week the Trump administration announced it would investigate aluminum imports, and today it added China’s relative protection of intellectual property...
Market Commentary
The downdraft in wheat, corn and soybean prices continued Sunday evening and into today. The 10 August bearish USDA production estimates and the bearish te...
Wheat Price Collapse Hurts Three Ways
The crop revenue insurance guarantees are a very important part of a farmer’s decision-making process, and the collapse in wheat futures markets in August...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn markets are still having some harvest pressure. Prices didn't move downward as expected, and exporters are still paying 2,500 ARS/MT (above $140/M...
Cotton Wants Back in Title I of Farm Bill
Farm income data shows that cotton has been a volatile market, and the industry is pressing to get back into Title I of the next farm bill.While the farm b...
USDA Reports Humbling
The lesson from yesterday is one that keeps being repeated, which is that USDA reports can be very humbling. Most were left scratching their heads in disbe...
Do Markets Care about North Korea’s Nukes?
Kim Jong-Un doesn’t place much faith in capitalism or markets, but those markets’ performance this week indicate their own view of North Korea’s emerging n...
Death’s Recovery; Reverse Engineering; Wrong Again; North Korea
European food makers are finding out what some American brands like Sunkist learned many years ago – the Chinese will steal the names of your products. Dea...
Market Commentary
The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s bearish USDA reports and subsequent price collapse. The Minneapolis wheat market th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As the GM food debate in India continues, the supply and demand gap, especially of vegetable oil, is widening, and farmers are losing money due to pest att...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
One-Way Pattern; GMOs Worse than CAFOs; Sweet Elasticity
U.S. exports of ethanol to Brazil are up 80 percent, and industry groups there have been demanding a tax be placed on the imports from America. Washington...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
WASDE; Japan Says No
Today’s WASDE report shows overall animal protein production revised upward for the year, and Japan imposes safeguard tariffs on frozen beef for the first...
The August 2017 WASDE
This month’s WASDE has maintained the August edition’s well-earned reputation for producing market-moving surprises.In a market sense, bullish and bearish...
Oilseed Highlights
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed Arcadia Biosciences and Bioceres S.A. that it has completed review of the HB4 stress-tolerant soybean,...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was quiet (as expected) with corn and wheat prices near unchanged, while soybean prices crept a few cents higher in low volume. A quick gla...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While Russia's corn prices were on the rise, Ukraine's remained steady. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports to one country have been notably higher...
Water versus Climate Change; Blocking Imports; Wheying Yogurt Name
The Trump administration talks a tough game on trade. When it comes to protectionism, though, it is other countries that are taking real action. Water vers...
China In-Country Analysis
With the corn harvest season in its southern region around the corner and downstream demand flagging, the average domestic corn price in China fell RMB 11/...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trading during both the overnight and day sessions was muted by a lack of any enthusiasm and very low trading volume. Part of the mar...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Record Chinese Soy Imports; Containerized Soy Shipments; Brazilian Rail; Shooting Fire-Setters
U.S. soybean exports via containers have been exceptionally strong this year, almost all destined to Asia with the key markets being Taiwan, Indonesia, Tha...
Market Commentary
Trading was subdued with the August WASDE looming Thursday at noon (EDT). There is a general sense that traders are seeking to lower risk exposure going in...
Speculating About the August WASDE
It has been largely overlooked amidst all the focus on the U.S. corn and soybean crop prospects, but the August WASDE is likely to also contain some other...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at the highest level since before the 2011 Arab Spring, reaching $36.0 billion, and that the...
Fairness Vewed Broadly; Toxic or Benign; Killer AC
In an effort to stall participation in a “special session” with the U.S. over the terms of the current free trade agreement, South Korea is arguing that it...
Brazil May Impose TRQ on Ethanol Imports
The Brazilian Foreign Trade Council (Camex) may place a TRQ on ethanol imports in the next two weeks that will impact U.S. ethanol producers.It is nothing...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were no trades on the Argentine soybean market last week, but offers remained around 40sX for September FOB and traded just today at +44sX FOB. Local...
NAFTA Talks, Biofuels Trade Decision and Congress In Pro Forma Session This August
August is usually slow in the nation’s capital as lawmakers all leave town for the traditional recess. This year the schedule for the month is focused on t...
Market Commentary
Markets started Sunday evening with small gains, and that’s the way they traded the entire night session in light volume. Wheat was then a reluctant follow...
Dicamba – New Soybean Issue?
The Dicamba soybean is the latest (and hoped to be the next greatest) soybean seed/chemical combination, resistant to the broadleaf killer of the same name...
Misnamed and Misinformed; Fair is Fair
The Organization for Competitive Markets (OCM) has a nice ring to its name. Like so much else in politics, though, its goal is quite to the contrary. Misna...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybeans losing nearly 50 cents, corn a dime and wheat 10-20 cents. Both corn and...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is set on fulfilling its fuel blending mandate and has plans to achieve up to 20 percent ethanol blending in the near future. However, there are seve...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
More Pain
The grain market news this week seemed to be full of more stories of financial woe and disappointment at the upper levels of the industry.The grain market...
No Change to Biofuel Point of Obligation
Last year the EPA denied a petition to change the point of obligation on biofuels compliance but opened a comment period to consider the issue further. In...
Commodity Outlook; Internet and Innovation Inequality
Americans file four times as many patent applications as do Europeans, and part of the reason is a contrast in attitude. Commodity Price Outlook Consumer p...
Why 2017/18 Will Be Different
A number of developing factors over the past several weeks suggest that the 2017/18 crop cycle will be different across the globe.Major common threads for...
No Room for Mercosur Beef in the EU; 2018 Domestic Meat Consumption; Pork Producers Support the EPA
This week the EPA asked the U.S. Court of Appeals to delay enforcement of a reporting requirment that had been previously exempted, and the National Pork P...
Trade Policy Roundup
Canada does not want to give up its supply management programs for dairy and poultry in the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations, and now it reportedly also wants to mai...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean/Corn Crop Forecasts: Better U.S. Soy Export Sales; FDA Approves Soyoil Health Claim
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
Selling pressure in overnight trading continued during the day session with November soybeans plunging as much as 22 cents to $9.555, finally filling the o...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's grain exports reportedly set a new record in 2016/17, and its milling wheat prices started to drop last week on the domestic market due to the gr...
Free Trade and Protectionism; Retail Shakeout and Commodities
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross likely tired of hearing the U.S. labeled as protectionist and responded to critics via the Wall Street Journal. He char...
China In-Country Analysis
With the volume of imported soybeans remaining high and arrivals of new shipments continuing at a strong pace, China’s estimated soymeal inventory ha...
Market Commentary
The overnight session started out with carryover selling pushing grain and soy prices slightly lower, but bargain hunter buyers soon showed up to move pric...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenyan farmers are saying that the extended duty-free maize import period will make large volumes of those low-cost stocks available when the local crop is...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Soy Crop; Russian Oilseeds; Chinese and Argentine Soy Crush
The Russian government has strongly encouraged farmers to plant more oilseeds in recent years to reduce the need for imports and increase exports, and they...
Opposite than Expected Tacks; Ugly Answer; Biofuel Sleight of Hand
China’s Vice Commerce Minister Qian Keming warned the Trump administration against mixing trade policy with the issue of North Korea’s security threats. Op...
Plans for the 2017 Farm Bill Defy Odds
Congress hasn’t passed a farm bill on schedule since 1990, and now the agriculture committees want to pass the next one early.Congress hasn’t passed a farm...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
It seemed to be a “get me out” market in the soy complex today as long liquidation dominated trade. Getting out involved outright selling of long positions...
A Few Comments That Come to Mind
It is difficult to recall a growing season in the U.S. with as much uncertainty as in 2017. Meanwhile, one potential factor in determining how this year's...
Court Rules Against the EPA on RFS Waiver
There is more chaos for the RFS after a Federal Court rules the EPA’s 2016 waiver of ethanol volumes to avoid the 10 percent blend wall was invalid under t...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower Sunday night on confirmation of a dry but cooler weather outlook across the Corn Belt and northern Plains. Funds then began the day with...
Weather Threats Soften
Ten days ago, virtually every weather outlook for August looked threatening. However, changes in weather models that started last week have softened the ma...
Spade a Spade; Biofuel Bias; Less Food
Elmar Baumann of the Association of the German Biofuel Industry warns in Euractiv that the EU’s RED II policy change is designed to fail. The assumption is...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania for 12 pro (GASC quality) milling wheat remained about unchanged during the past two weeks and is offered at $195/MT FOB. Farmers the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market was slow last week as one factor pushed basis higher. Farmers were not selling soybeans, and demand was focused only on the spot for A...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s rice exports have been lower in 2016/17, but its non-basmati varieties are expected to do better in 2017/18 and find a market in Bangladesh as well...
Market Commentary
The market still isn’t ready to decide whether the general dryness over the western Corn Belt and northern Plains is enough to reduce corn yields to more b...
Flawed Spring Wheat Tour
The 2017 spring wheat tour was held this week with the results released yesterday, but it overlooked two key elements.The 2017 spring wheat tour was held t...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
S&D Inseparable; Haggard Haggerty; Bullish Outlook
Under economics, supply and demand are intricately related. However, the U.S. Congress practices politics and not economics. S&D Inseparable Under econ...
Foodie Movement Focuses on Ending Food Waste
New policy initiatives to curb food waste are likely to be part of the new farm bill. Depending how far these efforts go, some big changes to long-standing...
Ag Review: Geopolitics and the Black Sea
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Market Commentary
The whipsaw weather and the seeming inability of the GFS weather model to provide accurate forecasts continue to frustrate futures traders. Soybean futures...
Fundamental Food Economics; Australia/New Zealand Frustrations
Australia and New Zealand do not practice perfect market economics, but their agricultural policies can be better than many others. Fundamental Food Econom...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Global Soyoil Consumption Growth
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
A Different Year Ahead
The global abundance of agricultural crops during the past four years is unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable. Change is inevitable, and it now clear...
Chicken to China; Drought in Cattle Country; Fat Rules
Lawmakers want to export U.S. broilers to China, and drought is helping liquidate the cattle herd. Meanwhile, dietary fat is in fashion again while still o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Stealing Steel Jobs; Spearing Subsidies; Disruptive Agriculture
Business groups and trading partners are encouraging the Trump administration to back away from imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports under Sectio...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. sorghum prices are still quite competitive in China despite the transition there to a more fundamental supply and demand market system, and another fa...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found prices on both sides early and then gradually climbing above Tuesday’s closes as selling interest waned. For...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has suggested a trade-related way to decrease the storage expense for grain held by the State Intervention Fund. Meanwh...
A Roll of the Dice on Crop Yields
The French Rivera meets the Midwest: Monte Carlo simulations of U.S. corn and soybean yields.The world’s most famous casino, the Monte Carlo along the Fren...
Oilseed Highlights: Smaller Soybean Production Forecast for Three Countries with a Larger One Expected Elsewhere
Three countries are expected to reduce their soybean planted areas in favor of other crops, but another is forecast to increase its production of the oilse...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
E15 Bill Stalls in Senate
Legislation to approve E15 runs into opposition as the gap between ethanol production and consumption continues to widen.The Senate Environment and Public...
Broad Imaginations
If Donald Trump’s rhetoric matched reality, protectionism would be at an all-time high. Indeed, the warnings that U.S. imposition of Section 232 duties on...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is reported to be the destination for about 95 percent of all Ukrainian wheat bran exports in the first 11 months of MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, there ar...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat rallies are likely over, while soybean futures may have more potential. Traders are watching fall hog supplies with suspicion, and the Cattl...
Controversial Clovis; New Rice Market; Ignoring Facts
This is a good year for U.S. rice as China has moved forward on an approval process for buying it, and now the Nikkei reports that Japanese consumers are b...
June Cattle Placements Set Bearish Trend
USDA’s latest beef cattle supply data could be a harbinger of bearish cattle prices into the third quarter of next year.USDA released its monthly Cattle on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
More corn in the domestic market and a weaker Argentine peso helped send local prices lower by AR200/MT ($10/MT), which is good news for certain exporters...
Market Commentary
Friday’s weak closes coupled with a major flip-flop in weather forecasts over the weekend brought more sellers to the markets Sunday night and this morning...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
2016 Farm Income Numbers
A survey of one program's Red River Valley farm clients’ 2016 financial results provided some interesting points, but that data will likely be quite differ...
Market Commentary
The corn and soybean markets were both bearish today on the overnight rains that were better than expected. Spring wheat futures were again soft, and some...
Cotton War; Org Mistake; Italy First; Deadly Friteries; Campbell Gamble
The Senate Appropriations Committee not only ignored the agricultural budget cuts recommended by the White House, but it ordered USDA Secretary Sonny Purdu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn has been a golden grain for the farmers in most states, but lower prices during harvest and higher ones for other crops may induce them to shift to mo...
Senate Ag Appropriations Bill Makes Down Payment on Farm Bill
The Senate ag appropriations bill includes funding and reform proposals for two programs that will help make the farm bill slightly easier to craft next ye...
Drought Impact
The northern Plains drought is worsening, and the spring wheat market has reflected part of the severity and lost production. There is one element, though,...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Global Soymeal Demand Growth in 2017/18
It is useful to occasionally take a look at the USDA forecast for growth in various commodities over the next year. This provides an understanding of where...
Market Commentary
More hot, dry weather emboldened bulls at the CBOT today. WPI’s future-implied crop yield models hold different outlooks for corn versus soybeans. General...
Nice Rice Deal; Good USDA Team
The previously rumored key management team at USDA has now been formally nominated and thus headed for consideration in the Senate. Nice Rice Deal The Trum...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Cattle on Feed Report; Ag Appropriations Bill Identifies Meat-Related Issues
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices on the Russian grain market kept growing overall, influenced by rising demand from one segment. Meanwhile, oilseed processors in Ukraine's central r...
Atypical Response; Europe First; Science versus Politics; Digital Fears
In response to an atypical case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in an 11-year old Alabama cow, one U.S. trading partner said it will deny access...
China In-Country Analysis
One significant factor is going to raise operating costs for the deep corn processing industry in China's northern and northeastern regions, and that will...
Market Commentary
A sort of daily trading pattern has developed for grain and soy futures in recent days, which could be tied to the daily U.S. GFS and EU weather models in...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s rather placid grain and soy futures trade was replaced by a return of the weather market overnight. Most prices for corn, wheat and soybeans qu...
Breaking Down U.S. Wheat Classes
While traders had become accustomed to a world wheat market dominated by other origins, the U.S. wheat crop in 2017 has drawn more market attention than du...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While South Africa has its biggest maize crop in about forty years and will once again be an exporter, it will have difficulty shipping to some maize-starv...
NAFTA Objectives; Cotton Subsidies; GMO Transparency; Crooked Pointing
The White House released its negotiating objectives for NAFTA modernization, and there were mixed reactions. NAFTA Objectives Analyzed The White House rele...
House Budget Committee to Consider Budget Tomorrow
The House budget resolution has no specific instructions in the reconciliation package regarding spending cuts to farm and nutrition programs nor suggested...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; U.S. Biodiesel Tax Credit; Sunseed Production in Bulgaria and Romania; Brazil’s Road Blockade
The EU Commission has issued its forecasts for sunseed production in Bulgaria and Romania, which indicate notable changes from 2016. Meanwhile, protestors...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
A few trades of Bulgarian feed wheat were reported last week at €159/MT ($182/MT) FOB. After one particular development, though, the market is offered at €...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybean basis moved sharply higher this week as Chinese buyers suddenly wanted to purchase August soybeans, both FOB and CNF. The basis CNF react...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
New Animal Disease Strategy Still Dependent on Traceability
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) Veterinary Services office announced an animal disease response plan, but that is dependent on th...
Agricultural Trade Policy Moving
The EU, Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Uruguay have together proposed new disciplines on domestic agricultural supports. By contrast, the largest U.S. farm gro...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean and wheat futures finished the evening session about unchanged. Minneapolis wheat futures were then firmer this morning, soybeans turned high...
Guts Poker
The current U.S. (and Canada) growing season has not been as perfect as in the past three or four years, and it is starting to look much like guts poker, a...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...
Market Commentary
Weather risk isn’t over yet, and the grains markets traded accordingly. Elsewhere, cattle and hog futures followed divergent paths as their fundamentals sh...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
U.S. and World Wheat
There are several differences between WPI's wheat production estimates by country and USDA's 12 July numbers. The net result, though, is a significant shif...
Domestic Supports; NAFTA; Crop Prices
Many WTO members would like to see new disciplines on domestic supports, but there is far from a consensus on how much and where. Future of Domestic Suppor...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI's 26 May notifiation of new rules that effectively banned the trading of cattle, including buffaloes, for slaughter at animal markets was met with a pe...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
Legislation to approve E15 blends of ethanol is moving in the Senate, but it has garnered opposition from the National Council of Chain Restaurants.As prev...
U.S. Meat Exports Losing Leverage in Japan
The EU has negotiated a trade deal with Japan following on the Japan-Australia agreement of 2015. With the U.S. pulled out of the TPP, U.S. red meat export...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
KORUS Leverage; Europe’s Ag Strategy
The U.S. has requested a joint committee meeting with South Korea under the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) with the goal of making it a “more bala...
Market Commentary
If anyone needed a tutorial on the dangers that lurk in weather markets, today’s grain and soy markets provided one. Longs may have taken a beating, but en...
Takeaways from the July WASDE
The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for crops in the western Corn Belt invested yesterday’s July WADSE with perhap...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Imports and Purchase Agreement; WASDE; U.S. Soy Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia and Ukraine have both released the total volumes of their respective grain exports for MY 2016/17. Ukraine has also reportedly experienced a very si...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Refugee Value; Localization
University of Notre Dame researchers tracked refugees entering the U.S. in terms of outcomes and found there was one critical factor in success rates. Refu...
Market Commentary
The July WASDE conveyed an overall bearish tone for the grains, but it was mildly supportive for soybeans. As expected, it diverted market attention away f...
EU Ag Council to Consider Soya Declaration
The proposal, which is intended to address the EU's feed protein deficit through a series of steps, is scheduled to be considered at the council...
Ag Appropriations Bill Directs FDA on Regulating Plant-Based Milks
Heretofore, the FDA has been uncooperative with the dairy and meat industries' fights against use of the terms “milk” and “meat” by plant-based substitutes...
Africa Realism; DET Dumping; Hamburg Hypocrites
U.S. biodiesel producers are now seeking retroactive antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of competing product from Argentina and Indonesia. Af...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was quite large again overnight, but it then slowed during the day session with prices recovering to levels around Monday’s closes. It was a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt's problem with ergot has always been with the standard for wheat, which has been revised higher. However, the acceptable level has remained at 0.0 pe...
Many Questions, Few Answers
USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. However, circumstances have changed the intensity of interest as this year's edition c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The wheat markets are quiet with not much business reported for new crop since they heated up two weeks ago. Wheat with 11.5 percent protein rose to the mi...
Appropriations Bill and Budget Resolution This Week?
The House of Representatives is likely to take up both the ag appropriations bill and the FY 2018 budget resolution this week. What will that mean for agri...
G20 Trade Realism; Risky Forecasts
The OECD and FAO issued their annual long-range outlook (2017-2026) for global food commodity prices, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office makes the sa...
The Weather Market Has Arrived
There hasn’t been one in the U.S. since 2012, and USDA is currently using the second-highest corn and soybean yields ever in its supply/demand analysis. It...
Market Commentary
Soybeans continue to lead the markets higher on the continuing treat of hot, dry weather encompassing more of the northern Plains and Corn Belt. Corn, thou...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quite active last week as many farmers took advantage of one particular development. Meanwhile, weathe...
Market Commentary
The soybean story seems to be more about weather than demand. Today’s issue was that it is a Friday and forecasts can change over the weekend. Meanwhile, w...
Is the Wheat Rally Real?
Minneapolis futures had an incredibly volatile week, but nothing really changed from a fundamental aspect other than the hard red spring wheat crop got sma...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Even though the MSPs for pulses and oilseeds have been increased for the khariff season, the market prices for the former are much lower. As a result, farm...
Squandering a Pittance; Barking Up the Wrong Tree; Italy First; New Market
The G90 is a group of poor developing countries that certainly deserve empathy, but their latest demands for policy change at the WTO ministerial in Buenos...
Is the “America First” Approach Changing Biofuel Policy?
The U.S. EPA has released the proposed 2018 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuels, the first such issued by the Trump administration, and it sign...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures prices are more or less following their own path and ignoring the gyrations of the wheat markets as those futures fell victim to their own...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
What the HRS Market Tells Us
For traders who have become used to a price movement of 25 cents being a big deal in grain and soy futures markets over the past few years, the current MGE...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Crush; Brazil’s Soy Exports; China’s Soybeans; French Biodiesel; Lower Cotton Prices
French Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot today indicated his country’s government will take steps to restrict the use of non-sustainable palm oil and soyo...
What’s Ahead for Hog Prices?; PEDv in Canada; Ethanol Volumes; Woody Breast Syndrome
Hog prices are about to hit the summer doldrums, but how will they compare to last year’s levels? Meanwhile, PEDv is making a comeback in Canada, the EPA r...
RIN Investigation; Ag Export Hearing
U.S. EPA announced a review of the Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) system that undergirds the fuel ethanol utilization program and has issued a req...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...
China In-Country Analysis
The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The trends in Ukraine's milling wheat, feed wheat, and feed barley markets all changed last week, influenced by the start of the 2017 harvests. Meanwhile,...
Market Commentary
As a result of current weather forecasts, today’s futures markets seemed undecided about price direction as grain and soy prices swung back and forth in wi...
Self-Righteous Trade; A Rose; Biofuel Cut
The U.S. dairy industry has been fighting use of the term “milk” by nondairy products for nearly 20 years, and now the meat industry is gearing up for a fi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Two factors drove basis higher, especially in the CNF market where the most liquid position has bee...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The July 4th holiday in the U.S. typically marks the start of the most critical period of development for the corn and soybean crops, and there are several...
Record Swine Herd
USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report shows a record swine herd and future stability in the sector.USDA’s most recently released quarterly Hogs and Pigs re...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The demand for feed wheat at current prices is difficult to find as corn is about $10-20 cheaper. In Spain, the spread between Brazilian corn and Bulgarian...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Trade Trouble; KROUS Redux; Back to Bite; Fuel Fight
The historical criticism is that America’s economic interests have taken a backseat to national security objectives, and despite his rhetoric demanding fai...
Market Commentary
The soy complex started firm overnight on the warmer, drier weather forecasts, and Minneapolis wheat futures continued to charge ahead last night and today...
Market Commentary
Soybeans had quite a trading range today, triggered by more bullish USDA stocks and acreage numbers than expected, and there was no stopping wheat in any o...
China’s Selective Interpretation; Precision Economy; Africa’s Burden
China is reportedly “concerned” by the impending Trump administration decision on whether to block certain steel and aluminum imports on the grounds of nat...
U.S. and China: Is the Honeymoon Over?
Trade talks between the U.S. and China yielded early and unexpected positive outcomes, which may now be in jeopardy.Foreign policy concerns took precedence...
USDA Reports Positive Soybeans, Negative Corn
Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t contain any big surprises, but there were a few small ones.Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t co...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India rolls out its new Good and Services Tax (GST) starting 1 July 2017, the largest tax reform in quite some time is expected to possibly make Indian...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Tariffs; High Methionine Soybeans; Canadian Oilseed Plantings; Soy Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
This Week’s Reports
Today's report from Statistics Canada and tomorrow's from USDA should present a good picture of how land has been planted with the major grain and oilseed...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex started out slowly with mixed price action, but volume picked up and prices began to firm as traders contin...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Cattle on Feed Way Up; Independence Day Cookout Slightly Cheaper
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Korean Curtsy; Trump Risks; WTO Agenda Outlook
The EU utilizes direct payments as a farm support mechanism, and they are considered the least distorting approach. Now, however, the CAP is under severe b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s landed price of imported soybeans dropped $14/MT to $387/MT even as the yuan fell slightly against the U.S. dollar. That lower cost, howe...
Market Commentary
The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining to constrain trading in grain and soy futures. The general quiet trend continued during to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices once again fluctuated insignificantly in RUB expression, but they decreased in USD expression as the ruble continued to weaken. Meanwh...
Ag Review: U.S. Grains and the Weather Market
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Daft on NAFTA; Inverse Trade Views
The purpose of free trade negotiations is to reduce the barriers to cross-border transactions, but some want to use the “modernization” of NAFTA to actuall...
2017/18 U.S. Wheat Outlook
A great abundance of wheat supplies in the U.S. and a record-large volume in the world were the dominant features in 2016/17 that resulted in relatively lo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is seeking changes to its customs union with the EU. Industrial goods are currently covered, and there is talk of possibly adding agricultural produ...
House Appropriators Release Ag Funding Bill
Tomorrow the House Appropriations Committee’s subcommittee on Agriculture will consider farm and food program spending for FY 2018.The House Appropriations...
Oilseed Highlights: Fungicide Development; Soybean Condition Ratings; Bangladesh’s Rising Soy Imports
Bangladesh is importing increasingly higher volumes of soybeans, and it has added a substantial amount of new processing capacity in recent years after rea...
EU-Japan; NAFTA +/-; Kowtowing; Budget Bobbing
EU negotiators are reportedly anxious to close a free trade agreement with Japan. Meanwhile, a report by the Congressional Research Service identifies the...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices firmed in rather active overnight trade, and a similar pattern followed in the day session. Shrinking spring wheat production...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybeans and Minneapolis wheat futures traded higher overnight, while KC and Chicago wheat traded lower. Markets then traded slightly higher all day...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The GASC purchased 55,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin last week, paying $207-209/MT CNF for 25 July-10 August shipment. There w...
Status of Barley and Oat Crops
The focus on the northern Plains drought has been on its potential impact on hard red spring wheat production, and that is important for several reasons. H...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market is rebounding after weeks of weakness, and soybean production estimates are finalized in Argentina. Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s market...
Border Adjustment Tax Idea Is Fading
Two of the top leaders in Congress, the speaker and the House Ways and Means Committee chairman, are running into stiff opposition to their border adjustme...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
232; Modi Monday; By Christmas; Don't Say Doha
The Trump administration is expected to release its Section 232 report late this week. The U.S. agriculture community is concerned that extrajudicial actio...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The overall sowing of pulses crops in India is down 33.74 percent as of 23 June versus a year ago. Farmers are facing challenging planting decisions as som...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Wheat Keeps Getting More Interesting
As spring crop ratings plunged again last week and hard red winter wheat protein levels continue to be a concern, issues with wheat production outside of N...
Market Commentary
It is tough to have a corn or soybean rally in June when temperatures are below normal and there is at least some precipitation in the forecast. Wheat, led...
Distrust; TTIP Phoenix; Self-Flagellation
Japan is cool toward a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expended his political capital last year on the TPP. Ne...
Trump on Ag: Rhetoric and Reality Gap
President Trump gave a speech in Iowa this week focusing heavily on ag, especially biofuels issues, but it is what was between the lines that raises some c...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Monsoon and Soybean Plantings; U.S. Soyoil Exports to Korea; Soy Export Sales; South American Soybean Updates
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Selective Free Trade; GMO Suit; Salty; Local
EU leaders have spent ample time criticizing the “America First” message of Donald Trump and proclaiming faith in free trade, but their message will be dif...
Market Commentary
The decline of corn and soybean futures prices in overnight trading accelerated during the day session as the July contracts for both moved below technical...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Cattle on Feed; Fat Fight
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
New Season for USDA Reports
On 30 June, the new season of USDA reports gets well underway. USDA may have a longer history of reporting on world agriculture than any other entity, and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to decrease on the domestic market during the week of 12-16 June, reflecting the end-of-season trend. However, exp...
Market Commentary
Trading volume overnight was better than might be indicated by the lack of price movement, but it was unimpressive during the day session. Later during the...
China In-Country Analysis
Two factors enabled the Canadian pork industry to greatly benefit in the past year from a surge in exports to China, hitting a record of nearly 314,000 MT...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Experts in South Africa are saying that the bumper 2017 grain crops will lead to lower prices for dairy products, meat and other grain-dependent items. Bec...
Ethanol Stocks and Exports Up, Domestic Use and Margins Down
Driving demand for fuel has been slower than expected so far this year, and refinery runs are increasing. This means exports and inventories of petroleum p...
Market Commentary
Corn and soy complex futures traded rather quietly overnight with minimal price changes. However, wheat prices moved higher again. During the day session,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
An Important Three Weeks
While the grain and soy complex markets have already been in the early throes of a weather market, the next three weeks will provide a wide variety of fres...
Oilseed Highlights: China Subsidy; EU and Soymilk; Argentine Soybeans; Potential Big Soy Buy
China had already implemented a subsidy this year to encourage farmers to plant more soybeans, and that production is likely to be even higher as a separat...
Regulating Food; License; African Contrasts
Efforts to reduce consumptive diseases has produced a slew of regulatory responses, including labeling, taxes and educational efforts. However, a study com...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Bulgarian feed wheat price has increased sharply since last week as it followed the MATIF wheat futures rally. Consequently, the spread between that an...
Is U.S. Weather the Only Game in Town?
Markets have been concentrating on the start to the U.S. growing season, and that will continue to be the dominant market factor for the next 30-60 days. H...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
It was interesting that corn’s losses were being blamed on a better weather outlook, but that same forecast didn’t push soybeans lower. The soy complex was...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Old crop wheat prices have been depressed for months now, mainly due to exporters’ big long positions and slow, small Brazilian demand. Argentine wheat is...
Narrowing the Fed’s Balance Sheet
In addition to raising the federal funds rate at its 13-14 June, the Federal Reserve addressed the issue of how it will roll off its massive holdings of se...
Market Commentary
Minneapolis wheat futures took the lead again in overnight trade, and that pattern followed through at the day session opening. The uncertainty today was t...
It’s Weather Time
It is now past the prime reproductive period for small grains (spring wheat, durum, barley, oats, etc.), and the critical weather period for corn and soybe...
State of the Food Economy
Word that Amazon is buying Whole Foods sent shock waves through a food industry already wobbling from the enormous changes being incurred. First and foremo...
Where Ag Finds Itself on Trade
Who could have predicted the situation in which the U.S. ag sector now finds itself with Mexico and China?As the saying goes, “Don’t judge a book by its co...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The federal and state governments have been unable to buy grain/oilseeds/pulses at the declared MSP, and GOI wants the private sector to lower the prices o...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Imports; French/German Rapeseed Production; Silo Bags in Brazil; Iranian Soy
Bumper corn and soybean crops along with low prices have caused Brazilian farmers to hold back a larger-than-normal share. Largely limited to using silo ba...
Market Commentary
Overnight losses were gradually reduced during the day session. Today’s futures market price action suggests that traders are still concerned that hot, dry...
2016/17: A Year for Exports
The U.S. contributed to the world production records in 2016/17 by harvesting its own record corn and soybean crops. Also impressive has been the continued...
Milk Shake; Beef Hurdles; NAFTA Issues; Shorts
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue appeared to be referencing the ultrafiltered milk issue when he stated that Canada’s dairy processing schemes were key to the f...
China; COOL; Cattle Outside of Feedlots
One of China's requirements in its agreement regarding U.S. beef shipments is traceability, and Senator Jon Tester (D-Montana) has noted this is a model fo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China’s yuan continued to gain ground on the U.S. dollar, last week’s landed price of imported soybeans rose $5/MT to $402/MT. The ave...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian sunflower seed oil prices fell on the domestic market and remained stable on the export market, influenced by two developments. Meanwhile, grain...
Market Commentary
Wheat markets tried hard to keep the rally going today, but the effort ran out of steam in the face of light selling from recent longs taking profits. Corn...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Soy Farmers’ Woes; Argentina’s Wet Land and Soybeans; Change in U.S. Canola Plantings
Sunflowers have long been the top softseed produced in the U.S., reaching 3.44 million acres of planted area in 2009, with canola a minor crop by compariso...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices moved higher across the board overnight as several developments caught traders' attention. Their reactions were tempered, however, by...
Unsustainable Splintering; Farm Policy Splintering; Robotic Benefit
The U.S. rural credit entity Farmer Mac issued its quarterly report called The Feed, which indicates that wage rates have risen faster in production agricu...
Outlook for U.S. Spring Wheat
Grain and soy market futures prices have mostly been moving up or down for the past two weeks, and the star performer has been MGEX spring wheat futures. B...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The latest USDA/FAS report is projecting Turkey’s 2017/18 soybean imports will be up by about 400,000 MT over 2016/17 forecasts of 2.45 MMT. Domestic produ...
Details of U.S.-China Beef Deal Reached
The beef industry is still reviewing the new regulations for resuming shipments to China, and that analysis will lead to assumptions about export volumes n...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Based on CNF prices, Brazil's soybeans traded for June at $1.06N China and for July at $1.17N. Eexporters there are checking export margins daily to determ...
Import Substitution; Biofuel’s Contribution; Hunger’s Roots
Encouraging domestic production is better than imposing import barriers, although relying on the market and comparative advantage is even better. Import Su...
Market Commentary
A little less heat and perhaps a bit more rain coupled with a slightly bearish USDA supply/demand report last week brought sellers to the soy complex today...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
House Ag Committee Dubious About Eliminating Food Aid Programs
The president’s budget proposed draconian cuts to international food aid programs, but Congress is skeptical.The president’s FY 2018 budget proposal (see A...
Weather Market Vagaries
Markets were down rather hard today. They started lower in the Sunday evening session, and those losses accelerated once today’s trading session got underw...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Egyptian GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Russian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin over the weekend, paying $204.02-206.40/MT CNF for 10-20 July shi...
Uninspiring USDA Reports
Not much inspiration was expected from today’s USDA reports, and that’s exactly what they delivered. However, there are a few important factors to keep in...
Political Economy; Consolidation; Impeachment
8 June was quite eventful with the Conservative government of Theresa May taking a beating in the polls and Donald Trump, whether he realizes it or not, bl...
Market Commentary
After being lower overnight, the market was kept tentative today by that along with a few other issues. In addition, it must be remembered that this is Fri...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Higher Number of Smaller Cattle Impacts Beef Production
How much longer will cattle trend toward lighter slaughter weights?Today’s WASDE report lowered earlier estimates of total 2017 beef production based on li...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) have been increased in each of the three years of the Modi government. While perhaps a good political tool, these higher pric...
Transition and Turmoil
The first week of June is usually when grain and soy markets shift their attention to the growing of U.S. spring-sown crops, a transition that has been tum...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy market’s bullish drumbeat continued to roll overnight. Prices then moved still higher as trading resumed during the day session, and MGEX...
Oilseed Highlights: Record Chinese Soybean Imports; Pakistan Buys Soybeans; Poor U.S. Soy Sales; Canada's Imperiled Canola Crop
While wet fields have prevented farmers from planting canola in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, there is now a growing threat to the crop in southern Sa...
Record Choice Select Spread; U.S.-Canada Dairy Spat Goes Beyond NAFTA
The demand for higher grade beef has been driving up cattle prices. Meanwhile, more countries are joining the U.S. regarding its concern about Canada’s new...
Unlocking Infrastructure; Weighing Food Aid
The lock and dam system in the U.S. is a crumbling mess, and the industry has been split on how to fix it. Whether or not Trump’s plan breaks that divide,...
China In-Country Analysis
China's average domestic corn price remained steady at RMB 1,670/MT ($245.23/MT) last week, but that market is facing mounting pressure with more state-res...
Market Commentary
There is no doubt that we are in a full-fledged weather market just now, one that developed rapidly enough to catch noncommercial shorts. When July corn pu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices mostly remained unchanged or grew slightly as Ag Minster Aleksandr Tkachov revised his 2017 grain production forecast on 1 June. Meanw...
Balkanized Food; Projected Welfare
Donald Trump receives ample criticism from Europeans for his “America First” proclamations, but the only difference is his transparency since n...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights; Sunseed Production; New Palm Oil Varieties
The company SMART Tbk has developed two new clones of oil palms via conventional breeding techniques, and they have been shown to produce much higher yield...
Wheat on the March
Old habits are often hard to break, but bearish fund managers are undoubtedly becoming nervous about their short wheat positions and probably with good rea...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
It is being suggested that most of South Africa’s possible 3 MMT of maize exports this year will be used in East Africa, although some countries there will...
U.S. Sugar Industry Abandons Deal with Mexico
Despite a detailed agreement that addresses almost all U.S. concerns over Mexican sugar imports, the U.S. industry does not support the pact.U.S. Commerce...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was relatively quiet with barely average trading volumes and prices that were mixed but without much change. Then today it was the su...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
USA versus PRC; Taxes before Building; Sugar Solution
Former five-time Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad contradicts Donald Trump by saying that the remaining countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership...
NAFTA Sweeteners: Let’s Make a Deal
After nearly two-and-a-half years of trade negotiations over sugar, last month the U.S. commerce secretary put a hard deadline on the talks. A deal now app...
Spring Wheat Supplies Getting Smaller
Weather is quickly starting to raise concerns about the northern Plains spring wheat production potential, and the simple explanation is that it has become...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Asia’s Trump; Science Battle; Trade and Emission Rhetoric
Donald Trump was elected as the anti-establishment candidate in the U.S., and now Moon Jae-in is fulfilling that role as the new leader of South Korea. His...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week for the old crop and about $2 firmer for the new crop. Two factors have helped the July/August pric...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian soybean market has moved even further into the spot positions. As exporters need to use their facilities, several trading houses went short b...
Market Commentary
The week started with a wildly unexciting day in the markets. News was scarce, as the price movement verified. The widening drought across the northern Pla...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Economic Data for the Fed to Consider
A summary of positive economic data will be on the agenda for the Federal Reserve’s June meeting to decide on further interest rate hikes.The Federal Reser...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
WTO Changes; #1; Psychoanalyzing Trump
Donald Trump declared the WTO a disaster, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer says he wants to fix it. However, it is other members who are mov...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI's notification of a new ban on the trading of cattle for slaughter is impacting a number of sectors in addition to farmers' income. There has been oppo...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet much of the Thursday night session, but they gained a little steam early this morning and closed higher. USDA's announcement of a sale t...
The Gospel According to Crop Ratings
USDA's weekly crop ratings report can be a valuable tool if market participants use them as a guide and not as a scientifically factual, reliable yie...
Market Commentary
One need only look at today’s price action to determine that markets had very little to trade on other than a generally improving weather outlook into mid-...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s 2017/18 Soy Area Projection; Argentine Crush Capacity Expansion; India’s Vegoil Tariffs
While India's consumers are benefiting from more vegoil imports at lower prices, its farmers and processors find those low prices are making oilseeds unpro...
Interstate Barriers; Thank Trump; Product Evolution
Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, and now states, municipalities and companies are declaring their own effort to reduce emissions. I...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
The Changing Grain Business
The grain business has substantially changed in many ways over the years, some of which can make achieving satisfactory profitability more difficult and co...
Record Cattle on Feed; Holy Cow: Indian Cattle Ban
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkish exporters are insisting that all Russian agricultural products be limited to 20-25 percent of the total volume of imports because of one specific c...
China In-Country Analysis
As China continued to intervene in its currency market, the cost of imported soybeans fell by $2/MT to $404/MT last week. Meanwhile, changes in the average...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
News Interpretations; Doud; Impeachment; Consolidation
A decision by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding ink cartridges could have implications for GM seeds and many other products, and its refusal to hear a...
Market Commentary
Although it may lack much long-term significance, yesterday's weekly crop condition report finally gave markets something to trade on. Soybean futures trad...
Reading Between Merkel-Trump
The transatlantic war of words is unsettling, but it is long overdue. Germany previously ignored the all too subtle Obama administration’s request to meet...
E15 Answer to Shrinking Ethanol Market
Looking ahead over the next eight years, it becomes clear that there will be less gasoline used in the transportation sector, which in turn means less oppo...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets turned slightly weaker as trading resumed last night. That continued into the day session this morning, and it soon accelerated under...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Zimbabwean government is pushing ahead with plans for mandatory food fortification beginning 1 June 2017, including maize and wheat flour. Millers are...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Price Outlook; Brazilian Soy Sales; Tilapia Virus Alert
With the U.S. weather outlook now positive and U.S. soybean plantings apparently on normal track, soybean prices shouldn't remain as high as they are. Ther...
The Trending Summer Season
Each Memorial Day holiday marks the beginning of the U.S. summer growing season for spring-planted crops, and there are several observations related to cer...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
An increase in the MSP for pulses incentivized farmers to expand their plantings, and 2016/17 production is projected at a record 22.4 MMT. However, those...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat were slightly higher overnight with the soy complex slightly lower. Those trends continued today, but the changes then became noticeably lar...
Barley Now A Specialty Crop
Barley acres have taken a significant brunt of the corn and oilseed acreage expansion in the U.S. and Canada, and there are a number of reasons why.The U.S...
Transatlantic Discussions; Currency Adjustment
The People’s Bank of China tried to use a more market-oriented approach to tying the value of the yuan to the U.S. dollar, but that is changing. Transatlan...
Trumped Agenda; Ignore the Previous; Political Animals; China Cynic
China’s Commerce Ministry has issued a report on trade relations with the U.S. and publicizes the government’s commitment to increase imports from America...
Red Meat Exports; Cattle on Feed Estimates; Faster Poultry Line Speeds; Strong Futures
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
U.S. Winter Wheat Issues
With tightening supplies of HRW and concerns about new crop quality, it is reasonable to ask what is going on in the KC HRW futures market.U.S. winter whea...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices edged slightly higher in quiet, low volume overnight trade. The slight overnight firmness evaporated first on indications of i...
Oilseed Highlights: China Advocates More U.S. Soybeans; Bad Chinese Crush Margins; Wet Weather and Canadian Canola; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
The day’s most active futures market was MGEX spring wheat. With building evidence that this year’s HRW crop will likely be unusually low in protein conten...
China In-Country Analysis
Entering the fourth week of the current round of state-reserved corn auctions, total sales of over 10 MMT have exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices fell across both the domestic and export markets for several reasons, a trend followed by its feed wheat prices. Meanw...
Kill People, Save Bugs; Consumer Miscalculation
Farmer and seed producer Mark Scholl spoke today at a Farm Foundation forum on food and agriculture regulations, lamenting that it now takes nearly twice a...
Uncertainties Ahead
Agricultural futures markets live for and exist on uncertainty since that is what creates volatility, which is their lifeblood. All the usual sources of do...
Taxicology; Adriukaitus Grows; Bittman Bitter
U.S. tax reform has caused fissures within fissures, and the House leadership’s border adjustment tax (BAT) is notably front and center with the effect on...
Market Commentary
In true “Turnaround Tuesday” fashion, soybean, corn and wheat futures gave back all of Monday’s gains plus more. Soymeal futures fell about $1.50, and soyo...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Soymeal Exports; Canadian Soy Production; Russian Crush Plant; Chinese Soy Trade
The executive director of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) expects the country’s soymeal exports to fall 25 percent below earlier projections b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC has raised the minimum protein requirements on its wheat tenders, and some indicate this may be a problem for one particular origin. Meanwhile...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Trump Submits Budget Plan with Farm Bill Reforms
The 2018 Farm Bill debate just got a jump start with the submission of the president’s budget plan that includes a number of related reform proposals...
Market Commentary
Markets traded steady to slightly higher overnight in average volume. Additional buying surfaced at today’s openings, taking wheat, corn and soybeans to mo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer selling stands at around 20 percent of the crop. However, the market dried up after the Brazilian political scandal moved the CBOT lower...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Punish Fake News; African Outlook; Cairn’s Call; Japan Dairy
The African Development Bank issued its African Economic Outlook for 2017. Notable were the factors it highlighted for leading to success on the continent,...
The Complexities of Wheat
Wheat has been the whipping boy of the market for the past several years and the short leg of every spread. Unlike corn and soybeans, which are the same ar...
The Trump Budget’s Unusual Unveiling
The Trump administration’s FY 2018 budget proposal is expected this week, but the lack of political marketing is curious.The White House is scheduled to re...
Complex Agenda; Muddle and Muddle; Quote of the Week
While the Trump administration notified Congress this week of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, starting a 90-day window before the talks begin, trade polic...
Oilseed Highlights: Unshipped U.S. Soybeans to China; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soybeans and the Weather
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Market Commentary
CBOT soybean prices recovered today as political fears in the U.S. and Brazil were calmed. Wheat futures were higher, and one can now logically make a bull...
Are Lower Broiler Exports to OPEC an Object Lesson for NAFTA?
Lower oil export earnings for OPEC countries have affected U.S. broiler exports; is there a lesson for the NAFTA renegotiations?We’ve long argued that the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India transitions into the new Goods & Services Tax (GST) regime to be rolled out 1 July, the tax rates for various goods have been announced. Meanw...
Corn Bullish – Maybe?
The corn market has been clearly bearish with analysts talking about record supplies amid increasing world production and greater competition for export sh...
Ag Review: China's Soyoil Problem
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Chinese Chicken; Cheese Please
One lawmaker’s concerns over chicken imports may be a hurdle for U.S. beef access to China. Meanwhile, its growth in exports shows cheese is a new trend in...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
The tale of two presidents and their political problems has dominated grain and soy complex markets for the last two days, and they have had a notable impa...
Trading Politics
Commercial and noncommercial traders are accustomed to the difficulties and uncertainties involved in trading agricultural futures markets. However, all th...
Green Waste; NAFTA Nonsense; Chocolate; Stocks; Obvious
After ruling out imposing tariffs on ethanol imports from the U.S. due to concerns about retaliation, the Brazilian government will require that importers...
Market Commentary
Commodity markets were supported in general by the sinking U.S. dollar, which hit a six-month low today and has now given back its entire post-election ral...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China's landed price of imported soybeans fell $2/MT to $411/MT last week as the national inventory climbed slightly, another factor pushed the do...
Rural Downgrade; Facebook Science
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue should find it easy to explain his proposed removal of the undersecretary for rural development position and budget cutting, an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's domestic grain prices continued to drop (in RUB) across most regions, and grain exports from its seaports during 5-11 May were significantly lower...
A Fundamentally Mixed Bag
The supply side of the 2017/18 U.S supply/demand balance is being molded by crop production prospects. However, the demand side is being fashioned by quite...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Ethanol Industry’s E15 Game Plan
The ethanol industry’s regulatory and legislative strategy to gain approval for E15 either by regulation or legislation is outlined.While E15 has been gene...
Oilseed Highlights: Organic Soybean Fraud; Chinese Subsidies; NOPA Crush Volume; Brazilian Soybean Forecast
The governments of China’s Heilongjiang and Liaoning Provinces announced last week that they will pay farmers higher subsidies to produce soybeans in 2017,...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was either dull as dishwater or exciting, depending on what one’s interest might be. KC wheat was a bit more interesting today,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
To protect its local crop, Morocco has reintroduced a significant tariff on soft wheat imports until the end of 2017. As in the past, tariff levels will be...
So Special; Science Disrupters; Wisely Beyond Friends
Demands by NGO groups in Europe to “fix the broken CAP” proved too much for even Phil Hogan, the most civil EU farm commissioner. So Special Demands by non...
Singapore Silly; Wrong-Way Ag; Tuna Test; NAFTA/Commodities
The world’s third-largest financial capital and the country with the world’s second-largest volume of external trade per capita doesn’t trust trade. How el...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Soybeans Bullish – Seriously?
The soy complex continues to be the energizer of agricultural markets. However, Its rallying would seem to be impossible in the face of another record worl...
China Opens to U.S. Beef – for Real This Time
The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, which includes U.S. beef access to the Chinese market for the first time in almost 14 years. What can be expe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Low demand is the main reason for the lack of movement in Argentina's FOB corn market, and there are a few factors causing domestic and Brazilian consumers...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were under some selling pressure in the Sunday night session with soybeans slightly higher on very light trading volume. Selling the...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quiet last week without any trades reported. Some parcels of both origins' 12.5 percent wheat are offered in t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With a goal of doubling Indian farmers’ income by 2022, agriculture needs land reforms. This will require an increase in productivity and a move away from...
Very High Benchmarks – Can They Be Reached?
USDA’s May reports contained yield and production estimates for spring crops still being planted, so there are several important items to watch and conside...
Market Commentary
USDA's friendly wheat and soybean estimates weren’t enough to spook the funds to cover lengthy short positions. They headed into this weekend short wheat,...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Channeling Le Trump; Real Deal; Pungent Policy; Day Late
Much of U.S. agriculture has been hyperventilating that Donald Trump is going to get into a trade war and the resulting trade retaliation is going to hurt...
Market Commentary
Soybeans were a few pennies higher in overnight trading, while corn futures hung around just below unchanged. During the day session, however, prices for b...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
WASDE Recap; Nervous Cattle Markets
The May WASDE trimmed red meat and poultry production estimates but raised them for 2018. Meanwhile, cattle futures are deescalating quickly amid broad mar...
Policy Mélange
U.S. wheat will plunge 21 percent this year to the lowest level in nearly a century. The industry blames foreign trade barriers for its plight, but there i...
Trends and Consequences
While USDA's 2017/18 projections of early May are vulnerable to a multitude of moving variables that will ultimately determine the actual outcome, they can...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; China Soybean Update
USDA’s WASDE report of yesterday included some interesting changes to the oilseed sector forecasts for 2016/17 as well first projections for 2017/18 that a...
Market Commentary
Today’s WASDE with its projections for 2017/18 did not generate much market excitement. As might be expected, though, the corn market showed the biggest re...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian holidays of 1-2 May and 8-9 May will influence grain prices, although market reaction will be delayed. Meanwhile, there were two other developm...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...
The May WASDE
Although some of the 2017/18 projections varied from trade expectations, today’s WASDE did not offer anything of a serious market-moving nature. Neverthele...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Money and Hypocrites; Shrinking Yield Folly; Nanny NaNa; Rigged
Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and lingering animosity over WWII atrocities, the finance ministers for China, Japan and South Korea m...