It has been a few years since markets were whipsawed by a series of inexplicable quarterly stocks surprises from USDA. Even if those numbers to be released...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Zimbabwe’s acting president has said that the government’s program of buying maize at $390/MT from farmers and selling it to maize millers at $250 /MT is “...
Threat to Ethanol; Herbicide Politics; Waste Politics; Two-Way Benefits
California’s legislature voted to move its 2020 presidential primary up from June to March to give itself more relevance in the outcome. However, some worr...
Risks to the Export Boom
U.S. ag exports have benefited from strong global demand and also dovish monetary policy at home. The latter is about to change, though, and could impact t...
U.S.-India Bilateral; Buy Mexican
Nestlé’s subsidiary in Mexico, Grupo Nestlé Mexico, has made a commitment that is one more example of trade policy moving in the wrong direction.. U.S.-Ind...
Market Commentary
There were likely three issues that pushed all three wheat markets to gains today despite the weakness in soybeans and flat corn market. General Comments S...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The corn harvest is about 30 percent completed in Romania and Bulgaria, and the yields are exceeding farmers’ expectations in many regions. Those origins a...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine FOB market for soybeans is quiet to start this week. Sellers are quoting $0.60X for October and November shipments (protein 34/33), but anoth...
Where Did All That Corn Come From?
The market for corn is far more complex on the import side than it is for soybeans with many significant players. The export side, however, is basically li...
Active Month for Soybean Sales
There have been soybean export sales announced every day except for one during the past two-week period, and the outlook for future sales is all about one...
Market Commentary
Most of the market talk today was about upcoming harvest pressure (or perhaps the lack thereof) in corn and soybeans. KC and Chicago wheat futures couldn’t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India and the U.S. have continued to build their relationship, but the issue is the trade deficit that favors the former. The U.S. could impose restriction...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
Hermit Surprise; Geneva Mystery; Fart Measurement; Pollster
WTO Director General Roberto Azevédo is asking key countries to decide what are doable and undoable issues at the organization’s upcoming ministerial in Bu...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Cattle on Feed; Red Meat Record; Growth in Organic
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Market Commentary
With harvest beginning to pick up along with USDA’s quarterly stocks report and final small grain summary due out on 29 September, there is little incentiv...
There is No Escaping Weather
Clearly, there are a number of weather-related situations with the potential to become important market factors in the months ahead.Weather is a topic for...
Green Eye Blinders
The European Environmental Bureau (EEB) issued its recommendations for revising the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and now U.S. environmental groups are...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Export Sales; Iranian Soy Imports
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week's domestic corn price ticked up as demand has been strong in Shandong Province, helped considerably by steady gains in one particular sector's op...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices during 11-15 September followed the previous week's trend as they were again influenced by the same factor. Meanwhile, those prices in...
Competition; UNanswers; CETA Fears
At least one Trump administration nominee is suggesting the goal should be demands for more market access, and the argument is that it is good for everyone...
Market Commentary
An initial spurt of buying that followed the very large export sales announcements from USDA/FAS put soybean prices up nearly 9 cents. Wheat futures, thoug...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded on both sides of Monday’s closes overnight and were not far from unchanged at the early morning recess. However, that soon cha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Experts in Kenya are saying that the government will not be able to terminate the duty-free importation of white maize at the end of September as planned b...
Poison, Profits and Arrogance
NFL star quarterback Tom Brady goes after the food industry in his new self-help book and replicates the celebrity model of making broad disparaging charac...
Peering Over the Horizon
The current limited price action of both the corn and soybean markets is reflecting the lack of fresh market-moving inputs. Looking ahead at the next three...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crops; EU Duties and Argentine Biodiesel; NOPA Crush; Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
What in the Fed is Going On?
With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting today and tomorrow, Fed watchers will be looking for news on interest rates and the Fed’s balance shee...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The 12.5 pro Russian wheat has moved up about $3 in the past two weeks, but it remains the cheapest origin by far for this quality. As a result, buyers fro...
House Passes FY 2018 Spending Bill
For the first time in 12 years, the House has finished all regular appropriations bills prior to the beginning of the next fiscal year. However, expected s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
General CommentsMarkets were all slightly higher during the first half of the Sunday evening session and then faded as the sun began rising to finish lower...
Market Commentary
Markets were all slightly higher during the first half of the Sunday evening session and then faded as the sun began rising to finish lower. Soybeans and s...
Expect Action; WTO Reversals; Foie Gras Faux Pas; Tech Like Food
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer responded to critics today by noting that the erosion in American support for free trade was not rooted in igno...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Rain in Argentina is threatening the wheat and barley crops, while the country’s corn market remains well supplied and low priced. Meanwhile, interesting m...
Weak Markets, No Selling Interest
On the doorstep of corn and soybean harvests, farmer selling across the country remains very limited. There are several reasons why.On the doorstep of corn...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With India's planted corn area down and production expected to be impacted by the effects of flooding and drought, several factors could limit any imports...
NAFTA: The Ham and Tomatoes Round
A look at two politically-sensitive products under NAFTA.The second round of NAFTA negotiations finished last week, which could have been called the “ham a...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Today's soybean export sales announcement didn’t change the market’s weaker start. Meanwhile, Minneapolis wheat futures came under more selling pressure af...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments this week that were of interest to both the markets and producers. Soybean export sales activity has been increasing rapid...
Outdated Embargo Protection; Transatlantic Troubles
Some aggies are concerned that the Trump administration will impose a trade embargo against China if Beijing does not do more to stop North Korea’s nuclear...
CETA to Squeeze EU Beef Market; Aussie Grain-Fed Beef; EU Net Beef Exporter
The drought in Australia during 2015 and the end of dairy production quotas in the EU are both having an impact on the global beef market. CETA to Squeeze...
Attacking Agencies; Delayed Justice; Crashing MC XI
Agriculture has historically been a cooperative sector where differences are negotiated. However, just as the food sector has become more complex, the agen...
Oilseed Highlights: Late-Season U.S. Soybean Export Surge; Conflicting Forecasts for Chinese Soy Imports; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Lower Palm Oil Price Predicted
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume was not as impressive as the ability of the market to shrug off Tuesday’s bigger production numbers and move higher. After being a...
What Is Ahead For Soybeans?
The recovery by soybean futures prices from their immediate post-WASDE loss this week and the subsequent move higher seem to hint that something is going o...
Trade Policy Conundrum; Bipartisan Tax Time; Target India
A meeting of U.S. aggies to discuss the renegotiation of NAFTA involved much focus on the net benefits of trade agreements and what is disliked about the c...
Market Commentary
Prices of corn, soybeans and wheat traded both sides of Tuesday’s closes before winding up with small gains by the early morning recess. The day session fo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
The fortunes of domestic soybean processors have steadily improved as the average crush margin grew RMB 4/MT ($0.62/MT) to RMB 103/MT ($15.84/MT) last week...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports to Asian countries hit a record in August versus the same month a year ago. Meanwhile, there has been a change in Syria...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
If there is a surprising market reaction to the September WASDE, it can be found in Chicago and KC wheat futures that mostly closed around 7 cents higher d...
WASDE Soybeans
China's soybean demand, combined with the U.S. and South American supply situation, offer insights into the coming supply/demand dynamics. USDA's updates t...
WASDE Corn
USDA's latest supply/demand estimates for the world's most prevalent feed grain are analyzed and the most pertinent results shown in graphical form. Histor...
The September WASDE
For the second month in a row, the 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the great majority of private analysts an...
WASDE Soymeal
Updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with USDA's changes to China's and Southeast Asia's import forecast, hold i...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA's updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with changes to China's and Southeast Asia's import forecast, hold i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA and other international agencies are working in Pakistan to address an issue with the wheat crop there. Meanwhile, a recent study indicates maize-prod...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA's latest figures. The agency's updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets offer impor...
Harvey Leads to Higher Gas Prices and Policy Waivers
The Trump administration has reacted to the disruption of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma with a temporary waiver of a statute long opposed by the ag sector and...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Soy Data; Flooding in Argentina
There were some significant changes in today's WASDE estimates for the soybean sector, and flooding in a key province of Argentina will likely impact plant...
Low Hope on Food to China; Price ≈ Quality
China has the largest trade surplus against the U.S. of any country, and it feeds into American animosity toward the Middle Kingdom. Low Hope on Food to Ch...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started mostly steady Sunday evening, but wheat prices weakened throughout the night and continued that trend this morning. Trade...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
For corn, Argentina still needs to put on program for October and December, but demand is not ready to buy at the current premiums. If this continues, it c...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is notably quiet as farmers prefer to keep the rest of their production in hope of higher prices later. Ho...
Amendment to Clip Crop Insurance Introduced in Senate
Crop insurance is under fire after making up for the losses of a few years ago - just in time for a record hurricane season to hit.As last reported (see Ag...
Energy Fallout; Farm Support Fallout; Reap What You Sow
The prospects for a WTO agreement on further capping domestic agricultural supports at this December’s ministerial meeting are quite slim. Meanwhile, the p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
USDA Report Preview
Many in the trade are still skeptical that the corn and soybean yields can be as big as the August estimates and pre-report estimates for the September rep...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded slightly higher much of the day, but there was zero excitement with relatively light volume. All three wheat markets were also higher m...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Markets in Neutral
Neutral is an interesting word that means nothing’s happening, which aptly describes this week's futures market action. Next Tuesday’s USDA reports could i...
Calling the Kettle Black; Beyond Belief; Harvey to Working with Dems
U.S. ethanol groups are hugely upset that Brazil has imposed import safeguards against their products and that China has gotten into large-scale production...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Market/trade reports indicate India's soybean crop this year could be 10 percent less because of the smaller planted area as well as the water damage...
Congress Passes Major Fiscal Package
The House followed the Senate in passing a bill that funded the government, provided hurricane relief and addressed the debt limit. However, this is only a...
The Waiting Game
For now, it is a waiting game for the fall harvests. However, there can be (and are) plenty of differing opinions concerning the status of crops in the U.S...
July Export Data; Pork Slaughter Capacity; From Harvey to Irma
Pork slaughter capacity grew this week more than in any previous single year as the pace of pork exports is trending differently than in 2016. Meanwhile, t...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw firmer prices in the soy complex as short covering continued. Grain prices stayed close to unchanged. Early in the day session, buyin...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Vietnam and U.S. DDGS; Brazil Soybean Export Forecast; Canadian Canola Stocks; The EU and Argentine Biodiesel
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office indicates the government of Vietnam has addressed the issue of U.S. DDGS imports, and the EU is taking action on the...
Socially Amok; GI Amok; Regionalization; BRICS’ Challenge
Those consternated over the EU’s Greenpeace-driven GMO policy should note the current slippery slope experience in Brussels over biofuel policy. Socially A...
Self-Imposed Work; Stacking the Table; Acute Famine; Wait, There’s More
There are complaints that Canada’s increasing demands in the NAFTA renegotiations will drag the talks into 2018, an election year in both the U.S. and Mexi...
Market Commentary
Prices across the board retreated a modest 1-3 cents overnight from yesterday’s higher closes, and trading seemed equally subdued after it resumed in the d...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture confirmed its conservative grain production forecast as the harvest in some regions may be impacted by certain conditio...
China In-Country Analysis
The nationwide domestic corn price rose just RMB 1/MT ($0.15/MT) to RMB 1,664/MT ($252.47/MT) last week. Meanwhile, the estimated average utilization rate...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: Bolivian Soybeans to China; EU Oilseed Production; Thai Soy Imports; Indian Vegoil Imports
The government of Bolivia has reached an agreement with China that is aimed at boosting its exports to that country. However, it faces one certain challeng...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt has released an announcement regarding the allowance of 13.5 percent moisture in wheat instead of 13 percent that had been put in place to allow Fren...
It’s Baaaaaack!
Congress is back after recess and facing a daunting schedule through December, which could even include the 2018 Farm Bill.After the traditional August rec...
Korean Crisis; RCEP Reality; Markup Opportunity; USDA Picks
The U.S. agriculture sector was in crisis mode over the Labor Day holiday weekend after Donald Trump said he would decide quickly on his inclination to wit...
A Mix of Bullish Influences
Aside from seasonal considerations, there are plenty of other outside influences in play that can move grain and soy futures prices, mainly higher in the s...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Trading in grain and soy complex futures resumed Monday evening, and prices began to firm after a hesitant start. More of the same prevailed during the day...
Market Commentary
Corn struggled to hold even minor gains overnight and today, and it was under the most pressure, probably due to the release of two private crop estimates...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Unbeatable Combination; 800-Pound Gorilla; Hopeful; About Harvey
Some members of the European Parliament are expressing concern that the adoption of precision agriculture and other new technologies will widen the divide...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments and stories in the news this week that could have future market implications. Stats Canada released its initial production...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Big Changes since the 5 July RFS Proposal
The comment period is closed for the 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, and the EPA must consider the results of a trade case against biodiesel im...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
According to a recent report, India’s broiler industry is on a growth path in 2017/18. However, it is also under immense pressure from various sources as n...
More Tales from Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Macron Goes Political; Ag Power at EPA; Fruit & Vegetable Value?
In contrast to the French goal of being leader on environmental matters, U.S. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt made a short genuflection to the agriculture s...
Possible Argentine-U.S. Deal to Avert Biodiesel Countervailing Duties?
Now would appear to be a good time for the Trump administration to consider offering Argentina a deal to avert imposition of the CVDs by agreeing to take a...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Hurricane Harvey and Cattle; China and U.S. Beef; USDA and the Dairy Program
It will take quite some time to determine the impact of Hurricane Harvey on cattle as well as that of U.S. beef exports to China. Meanwhile, USDA has chang...
Market Commentary
Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of grain and soy prices across the board with one exception. Overnight trade was slow with low vol...
Leaving Never Good; Non-Price Factors; Taxing Imports
Donald Trump has threatened three times this week to pull the U.S. out of NAFTA, but the Mexicans have a rebuttal. Separately, there are now undesired cons...
Market Commentary
Trading overnight and again during the day session were similar, while flooding from the heaviest storm-related rainfall ever to hit the continental U.S. h...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices for all crops on the Russian grain market plummeted with one exception. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat and feed grain prices followed global mar...
China In-Country Analysis
One particular price development helped hold the crushing margin in China relatively steady last week as the average return came in at RMB 76/MT ($11.40/MT...
Will Hurricane Harvey Lead to E15?
Could the policy response to the energy market disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey include E15, at least temporarily?Hurricane Harvey will be the first...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Flooding; Large U.S. Soy Inspections; Revised Forecasts for Brazil’s Soy Planted Area and India’s Soy Crop
Flooding once again threatens Argentine agriculture as it has slowed the harvesting and planting of two different crops, but another could also be af...
Will Wheat Market Blues Ever End?
If smaller U.S. supplies and a smaller carryout cannot stop the long-term U.S. wheat markets’ bearishness, it is fair to ask what can. Some potentially imp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A Saudi consortium is said to be investing as much as $500 million in the redevelopment of 25,000 acres in one country along with what is said will be the...
Market Commentary
When summertime grain markets are weak due to perceptions of large crops and abundant supplies, they typically find seasonal lows during the last days of A...
More Misinformed; Fueled Problems
Mark Twain famously said, “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.” Spin forward to today, and t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
A Tough August for Corn Growers
Several factors were responsible for the corn market's August meltdown as funds were caught leaning the wrong way. Farmers and others who had been at least...
Crop Insurance Under Fire
The federal crop insurance program is coming under fire as a new GAO study and a filed amendment for the pending ag appropriations bill both propose cuts t...
Market Commentary
Hurricane Harvey is creating export challenges, but robust yield estimates keep pressuring grain and oilseed futures. The cattle and hog markets took diver...
Overproduction Support; Canadian Walls
Donald Trump has made clear that he wants to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but today the U.S. and Mexican dairy industries decided that one need...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean prices moved lower last week, prompting U.S. exporters to take steps to remain competitive. Meanwhile, Argentine corn exporters are...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Debt Limit Rhetoric in Context
There has been a great deal of news coverage as well as tweeting about the debt limit and what is at stake before the end of September when the situation w...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
This was somewhat of a strange trading day, much like one before a USDA report. The market wanted to see the Farm Journal (Pro Farmer) Crop Tour’s corn and...
Pot Calls Kettle Black; Dangerous GMOs
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, speaking at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual policy meeting in Jackson Hole, gave warning against protection...
The State of U.S. Wheat’s Competitiveness
It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in world markets, and there are many reasons why. Howe...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
In the past two years, India's poultry sector has had limited growth for reasons such as higher input prices (feed), low live chicken prices and overproduc...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Biodiesel CVDs and U.S. Soy Crushers; Soy Export Sales; Crop Tour Update
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
Grain and soybean futures were slightly firmer in quiet and choppy overnight trading, and price action during the day session was mixed. The changes in ope...
Investors and Speculators
It may be appropriate and relatively easy to distinguish between investors and speculators in financial markets. However, no matter how the terms are defin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Broken or Wrong; Dangerous or Effective; Wrong Worry
President Trump is peculiarly threatening a shutdown to extort funding out of Congress for his wall on the border with Mexico. However, that threat is flaw...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's rapeseed exports showed a notable change in MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat prices began to fall, mainly because of the revised USD...
China In-Country Analysis
With the new harvest quickly approaching, the market for previous years’ corn continues to experience downward pressure. However, there is also anoth...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Trump Bluster Bust; Countervailings; Underwhelming
Donald Trump proclaiming this week that he doubts a good NAFTA update can be negotiated and that he’ll “end up probably terminating” the agreement is a sha...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Commerce Dept.'s announcement late yesterday of countervailing duties against biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia was the dominant news...
The Great Yield Debate of 2017
If there was one area of agreement for nearly all crop watchers, it would be that this year’s mixed-up and adverse weather made it very unlikely that 2017...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crop Forecasts; Zimbabwean Soybeans; Peruvian Fish Meal; Canadian Canola
The drought that has substantially impacted the Dakotas and Montana this year has also been severe elsewhere. Now there is growing concern that output of a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Egyptian Company for Agriculture and Rural Development (ECARD), a government agency, will restart its contract growing program with the main focus on o...
Food Fairness; Investigating is Legal; Ignominious Award
As the EU pursues a public comment period on the fairness of the food value chain, there are plenty of pitfalls ahead. Food Fairness As the EU pursues a pu...
Market Commentary
U.S. wheat supplies for 2017/18 may be down 25 percent or more, but USDA’s August forecast that world ending 2017/18 wheat supplies will climb to more than...
U.S. Commerce Department Rules Against Argentine, Indonesian Biodiesel
The DOC ruling puts pressure on U.S. biodiesel production for the remainder of the year.Today the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced its prelimina...
Bulls Take Cover
Corn, soybean and wheat futures markets continued in full retreat today to start the fourth consecutive week of lower prices. All of this bearishness has l...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybeans traded at $1.70X CNF for September at the beginning of the week and moved as high as $1.81X for the same position. On the FOB market, Br...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
EU wheat farmers from the Baltic States to Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell at the equivalent of Russian and Ukrainian price levels in hope of doing so...
Will the Ethanol Sector Consolidate Next Year?
Looking at the ethanol sector, it is the classic good news/bad news scenario with the former coming in the short term and the latter occurring over the nex...
Selective Precaution; NAFTA Ambition
Nearly every global scientific organization has endorsed the safety of agricultural biotechnology. When activists invented scare stories, though, the EU wa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
The wheat, corn and soybeans found no support to start the week with all three markets starting lower Sunday evening. Yield reports from Russia continue to...
Market Commentary
December corn futures got within a nickel of last August’s (2016) low. Some technical traders see that as the final downside objective. Meanwhile, the mark...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Oilseed Highlights: Surging U.S. Soybean Exports; Soy Export Sales; Brazilian Army to Pave Key Highway
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The sowing of some key commodities is down, and the major crops affected include pulses, coarse cereals and corn. There are two reasons for this, and it wi...
Thoughts from a Montana Farmer
The spring wheat harvest is quickly winding down, and a large farmer from eastern Montana recently sent some comments about his crop and what he (and his n...
Trade Progress; Bannon’s Meaning; Survey Says
It is difficult to offset the loss of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to U.S. agriculture, but this week showed several successful outcomes from the Tr...
Can Technology Play a Role in Organic Production?
This week the National Organic Standards Board discussed emerging ag production systems and their role in organic agriculture – just as they have since 200...
Market Commentary
Weather has returned as the driver for soybean futures prices since recent rains missed the very dry parts of Iowa and central Illinois. Meabwhile, funds c...
Exports Up in First Half of 2017; EPA-Proposed Biofuel Rule Hints at Changing DDGS in the Future
Exports helped both beef and pork maintain strong prices so far in 2017 despite supply increases, and the EPA-proposed biofuel rule hints at potential chan...
NAFTA Renegotiation Begins
In the U.S., there have been winners and losers under NAFTA, much as there have been in Mexico and Canada. That is the nature of trade. Perhaps the biggest...
Fake FTA News; Poop Data
The truth is, there is nothing unique about the U.S.-Chile FTA. Trade agreements affect trade flows, but they cannot fully explain trade balances. Fake FTA...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
Two developments last week caused China's estimated average crush margin to rise sharply to RMB 108/MT ($16.20/MT), an improvement of RMB 111/MT ($16.66/MT...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Its grain exports are higher than a year ago as Russia completes a project in the Kerch Straight that will limit the size of vessels transporting car...
NAFTA Reality; Farming Reality
Many of those starting up small and local farms are first-time farmers, but it is a fad that is unlikely to last for economic and labor reasons. NAFTA Real...
Market Commentary
Follow-through selling pushed grain and soy prices slightly lower early in the overnight session, but enough buying returned to the technically oversold ma...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) has announced that field trials for GM maize and cotton will start in October 2017, which is contrary to the eff...
NAFTA Hot Spots; S&D Duh!
As NAFTA renegotiations get underway this week, there is plenty of eye poking occurring. Meanwhile, the GAO investigated the compliance of U.S. food aid pr...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soybeans; Ukraine’s Soy Exports; Biodiesel Dumping Case, India’s Vegoil Imports
Officials in Argentina have determined the average protein content of the country’s 2017 soybean crop is below the 20-year average for the fourth year in a...
Market Commentary
Reverberations from last Thursday’s bearish WASDE together with the since-added prospects for rain over a good portion of the central U.S., including the v...
Post-Report Questions
The fact that the August WASDE pictured crop prospects in the U.S. and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere as being generally better than private analysts...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Rhetoric = Trade War
Last week the Trump administration announced it would investigate aluminum imports, and today it added China’s relative protection of intellectual property...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The quality of French milling wheat is higher than normal with average protein around 12 percent, but exports are lagging quite a bit this year becau...
Cotton Wants Back in Title I of Farm Bill
Farm income data shows that cotton has been a volatile market, and the industry is pressing to get back into Title I of the next farm bill.While the farm b...
Wheat Price Collapse Hurts Three Ways
The crop revenue insurance guarantees are a very important part of a farmer’s decision-making process, and the collapse in wheat futures markets in August...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
The downdraft in wheat, corn and soybean prices continued Sunday evening and into today. The 10 August bearish USDA production estimates and the bearish te...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn markets are still having some harvest pressure. Prices didn't move downward as expected, and exporters are still paying 2,500 ARS/MT (above $140/M...
Death’s Recovery; Reverse Engineering; Wrong Again; North Korea
European food makers are finding out what some American brands like Sunkist learned many years ago – the Chinese will steal the names of your products. Dea...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As the GM food debate in India continues, the supply and demand gap, especially of vegetable oil, is widening, and farmers are losing money due to pest att...
Market Commentary
The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s bearish USDA reports and subsequent price collapse. The Minneapolis wheat market th...
USDA Reports Humbling
The lesson from yesterday is one that keeps being repeated, which is that USDA reports can be very humbling. Most were left scratching their heads in disbe...
Do Markets Care about North Korea’s Nukes?
Kim Jong-Un doesn’t place much faith in capitalism or markets, but those markets’ performance this week indicate their own view of North Korea’s emerging n...
One-Way Pattern; GMOs Worse than CAFOs; Sweet Elasticity
U.S. exports of ethanol to Brazil are up 80 percent, and industry groups there have been demanding a tax be placed on the imports from America. Washington...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was quiet (as expected) with corn and wheat prices near unchanged, while soybean prices crept a few cents higher in low volume. A quick gla...
The August 2017 WASDE
This month’s WASDE has maintained the August edition’s well-earned reputation for producing market-moving surprises.In a market sense, bullish and bearish...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed Arcadia Biosciences and Bioceres S.A. that it has completed review of the HB4 stress-tolerant soybean,...
WASDE; Japan Says No
Today’s WASDE report shows overall animal protein production revised upward for the year, and Japan imposes safeguard tariffs on frozen beef for the first...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While Russia's corn prices were on the rise, Ukraine's remained steady. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports to one country have been notably higher...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trading during both the overnight and day sessions was muted by a lack of any enthusiasm and very low trading volume. Part of the mar...
China In-Country Analysis
With the corn harvest season in its southern region around the corner and downstream demand flagging, the average domestic corn price in China fell RMB 11/...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Water versus Climate Change; Blocking Imports; Wheying Yogurt Name
The Trump administration talks a tough game on trade. When it comes to protectionism, though, it is other countries that are taking real action. Water vers...
Brazil May Impose TRQ on Ethanol Imports
The Brazilian Foreign Trade Council (Camex) may place a TRQ on ethanol imports in the next two weeks that will impact U.S. ethanol producers.It is nothing...
Oilseed Highlights: Record Chinese Soy Imports; Containerized Soy Shipments; Brazilian Rail; Shooting Fire-Setters
U.S. soybean exports via containers have been exceptionally strong this year, almost all destined to Asia with the key markets being Taiwan, Indonesia, Tha...
Market Commentary
Trading was subdued with the August WASDE looming Thursday at noon (EDT). There is a general sense that traders are seeking to lower risk exposure going in...
Speculating About the August WASDE
It has been largely overlooked amidst all the focus on the U.S. corn and soybean crop prospects, but the August WASDE is likely to also contain some other...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at the highest level since before the 2011 Arab Spring, reaching $36.0 billion, and that the...
Fairness Vewed Broadly; Toxic or Benign; Killer AC
In an effort to stall participation in a “special session” with the U.S. over the terms of the current free trade agreement, South Korea is arguing that it...
Dicamba – New Soybean Issue?
The Dicamba soybean is the latest (and hoped to be the next greatest) soybean seed/chemical combination, resistant to the broadleaf killer of the same name...
NAFTA Talks, Biofuels Trade Decision and Congress In Pro Forma Session This August
August is usually slow in the nation’s capital as lawmakers all leave town for the traditional recess. This year the schedule for the month is focused on t...
Market Commentary
Markets started Sunday evening with small gains, and that’s the way they traded the entire night session in light volume. Wheat was then a reluctant follow...
Misnamed and Misinformed; Fair is Fair
The Organization for Competitive Markets (OCM) has a nice ring to its name. Like so much else in politics, though, its goal is quite to the contrary. Misna...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were no trades on the Argentine soybean market last week, but offers remained around 40sX for September FOB and traded just today at +44sX FOB. Local...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is set on fulfilling its fuel blending mandate and has plans to achieve up to 20 percent ethanol blending in the near future. However, there are seve...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybeans losing nearly 50 cents, corn a dime and wheat 10-20 cents. Both corn and...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Commodity Outlook; Internet and Innovation Inequality
Americans file four times as many patent applications as do Europeans, and part of the reason is a contrast in attitude. Commodity Price Outlook Consumer p...
More Pain
The grain market news this week seemed to be full of more stories of financial woe and disappointment at the upper levels of the industry.The grain market...
No Change to Biofuel Point of Obligation
Last year the EPA denied a petition to change the point of obligation on biofuels compliance but opened a comment period to consider the issue further. In...
Why 2017/18 Will Be Different
A number of developing factors over the past several weeks suggest that the 2017/18 crop cycle will be different across the globe.Major common threads for...
Trade Policy Roundup
Canada does not want to give up its supply management programs for dairy and poultry in the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations, and now it reportedly also wants to mai...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean/Corn Crop Forecasts: Better U.S. Soy Export Sales; FDA Approves Soyoil Health Claim
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
Selling pressure in overnight trading continued during the day session with November soybeans plunging as much as 22 cents to $9.555, finally filling the o...
No Room for Mercosur Beef in the EU; 2018 Domestic Meat Consumption; Pork Producers Support the EPA
This week the EPA asked the U.S. Court of Appeals to delay enforcement of a reporting requirment that had been previously exempted, and the National Pork P...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
With the volume of imported soybeans remaining high and arrivals of new shipments continuing at a strong pace, China’s estimated soymeal inventory ha...
Free Trade and Protectionism; Retail Shakeout and Commodities
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross likely tired of hearing the U.S. labeled as protectionist and responded to critics via the Wall Street Journal. He char...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's grain exports reportedly set a new record in 2016/17, and its milling wheat prices started to drop last week on the domestic market due to the gr...
Market Commentary
The overnight session started out with carryover selling pushing grain and soy prices slightly lower, but bargain hunter buyers soon showed up to move pric...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenyan farmers are saying that the extended duty-free maize import period will make large volumes of those low-cost stocks available when the local crop is...
Plans for the 2017 Farm Bill Defy Odds
Congress hasn’t passed a farm bill on schedule since 1990, and now the agriculture committees want to pass the next one early.Congress hasn’t passed a farm...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Soy Crop; Russian Oilseeds; Chinese and Argentine Soy Crush
The Russian government has strongly encouraged farmers to plant more oilseeds in recent years to reduce the need for imports and increase exports, and they...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
A Few Comments That Come to Mind
It is difficult to recall a growing season in the U.S. with as much uncertainty as in 2017. Meanwhile, one potential factor in determining how this year's...
Market Commentary
It seemed to be a “get me out” market in the soy complex today as long liquidation dominated trade. Getting out involved outright selling of long positions...
Opposite than Expected Tacks; Ugly Answer; Biofuel Sleight of Hand
China’s Vice Commerce Minister Qian Keming warned the Trump administration against mixing trade policy with the issue of North Korea’s security threats. Op...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania for 12 pro (GASC quality) milling wheat remained about unchanged during the past two weeks and is offered at $195/MT FOB. Farmers the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market was slow last week as one factor pushed basis higher. Farmers were not selling soybeans, and demand was focused only on the spot for A...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower Sunday night on confirmation of a dry but cooler weather outlook across the Corn Belt and northern Plains. Funds then began the day with...
Weather Threats Soften
Ten days ago, virtually every weather outlook for August looked threatening. However, changes in weather models that started last week have softened the ma...
Spade a Spade; Biofuel Bias; Less Food
Elmar Baumann of the Association of the German Biofuel Industry warns in Euractiv that the EU’s RED II policy change is designed to fail. The assumption is...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Court Rules Against the EPA on RFS Waiver
There is more chaos for the RFS after a Federal Court rules the EPA’s 2016 waiver of ethanol volumes to avoid the 10 percent blend wall was invalid under t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s rice exports have been lower in 2016/17, but its non-basmati varieties are expected to do better in 2017/18 and find a market in Bangladesh as well...
Flawed Spring Wheat Tour
The 2017 spring wheat tour was held this week with the results released yesterday, but it overlooked two key elements.The 2017 spring wheat tour was held t...
Market Commentary
The market still isn’t ready to decide whether the general dryness over the western Corn Belt and northern Plains is enough to reduce corn yields to more b...
Foodie Movement Focuses on Ending Food Waste
New policy initiatives to curb food waste are likely to be part of the new farm bill. Depending how far these efforts go, some big changes to long-standing...
Ag Review: Geopolitics and the Black Sea
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
S&D Inseparable; Haggard Haggerty; Bullish Outlook
Under economics, supply and demand are intricately related. However, the U.S. Congress practices politics and not economics. S&D Inseparable Under econ...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
The whipsaw weather and the seeming inability of the GFS weather model to provide accurate forecasts continue to frustrate futures traders. Soybean futures...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Global Soyoil Consumption Growth
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Fundamental Food Economics; Australia/New Zealand Frustrations
Australia and New Zealand do not practice perfect market economics, but their agricultural policies can be better than many others. Fundamental Food Econom...
Chicken to China; Drought in Cattle Country; Fat Rules
Lawmakers want to export U.S. broilers to China, and drought is helping liquidate the cattle herd. Meanwhile, dietary fat is in fashion again while still o...
A Different Year Ahead
The global abundance of agricultural crops during the past four years is unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable. Change is inevitable, and it now clear...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. sorghum prices are still quite competitive in China despite the transition there to a more fundamental supply and demand market system, and another fa...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found prices on both sides early and then gradually climbing above Tuesday’s closes as selling interest waned. For...
Stealing Steel Jobs; Spearing Subsidies; Disruptive Agriculture
Business groups and trading partners are encouraging the Trump administration to back away from imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports under Sectio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has suggested a trade-related way to decrease the storage expense for grain held by the State Intervention Fund. Meanwh...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
E15 Bill Stalls in Senate
Legislation to approve E15 runs into opposition as the gap between ethanol production and consumption continues to widen.The Senate Environment and Public...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat rallies are likely over, while soybean futures may have more potential. Traders are watching fall hog supplies with suspicion, and the Cattl...
Broad Imaginations
If Donald Trump’s rhetoric matched reality, protectionism would be at an all-time high. Indeed, the warnings that U.S. imposition of Section 232 duties on...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is reported to be the destination for about 95 percent of all Ukrainian wheat bran exports in the first 11 months of MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, there ar...
Oilseed Highlights: Smaller Soybean Production Forecast for Three Countries with a Larger One Expected Elsewhere
Three countries are expected to reduce their soybean planted areas in favor of other crops, but another is forecast to increase its production of the oilse...
A Roll of the Dice on Crop Yields
The French Rivera meets the Midwest: Monte Carlo simulations of U.S. corn and soybean yields.The world’s most famous casino, the Monte Carlo along the Fren...
Market Commentary
Friday’s weak closes coupled with a major flip-flop in weather forecasts over the weekend brought more sellers to the markets Sunday night and this morning...
June Cattle Placements Set Bearish Trend
USDA’s latest beef cattle supply data could be a harbinger of bearish cattle prices into the third quarter of next year.USDA released its monthly Cattle on...
2016 Farm Income Numbers
A survey of one program's Red River Valley farm clients’ 2016 financial results provided some interesting points, but that data will likely be quite differ...
Controversial Clovis; New Rice Market; Ignoring Facts
This is a good year for U.S. rice as China has moved forward on an approval process for buying it, and now the Nikkei reports that Japanese consumers are b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
More corn in the domestic market and a weaker Argentine peso helped send local prices lower by AR200/MT ($10/MT), which is good news for certain exporters...
Cotton War; Org Mistake; Italy First; Deadly Friteries; Campbell Gamble
The Senate Appropriations Committee not only ignored the agricultural budget cuts recommended by the White House, but it ordered USDA Secretary Sonny Purdu...
Drought Impact
The northern Plains drought is worsening, and the spring wheat market has reflected part of the severity and lost production. There is one element, though,...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn has been a golden grain for the farmers in most states, but lower prices during harvest and higher ones for other crops may induce them to shift to mo...
Market Commentary
The corn and soybean markets were both bearish today on the overnight rains that were better than expected. Spring wheat futures were again soft, and some...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Senate Ag Appropriations Bill Makes Down Payment on Farm Bill
The Senate ag appropriations bill includes funding and reform proposals for two programs that will help make the farm bill slightly easier to craft next ye...
Global Soymeal Demand Growth in 2017/18
It is useful to occasionally take a look at the USDA forecast for growth in various commodities over the next year. This provides an understanding of where...
Market Commentary
More hot, dry weather emboldened bulls at the CBOT today. WPI’s future-implied crop yield models hold different outlooks for corn versus soybeans. General...
Nice Rice Deal; Good USDA Team
The previously rumored key management team at USDA has now been formally nominated and thus headed for consideration in the Senate. Nice Rice Deal The Trum...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Cattle on Feed Report; Ag Appropriations Bill Identifies Meat-Related Issues
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices on the Russian grain market kept growing overall, influenced by rising demand from one segment. Meanwhile, oilseed processors in Ukraine's central r...
Atypical Response; Europe First; Science versus Politics; Digital Fears
In response to an atypical case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in an 11-year old Alabama cow, one U.S. trading partner said it will deny access...
China In-Country Analysis
One significant factor is going to raise operating costs for the deep corn processing industry in China's northern and northeastern regions, and that will...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
A sort of daily trading pattern has developed for grain and soy futures in recent days, which could be tied to the daily U.S. GFS and EU weather models in...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; U.S. Biodiesel Tax Credit; Sunseed Production in Bulgaria and Romania; Brazil’s Road Blockade
The EU Commission has issued its forecasts for sunseed production in Bulgaria and Romania, which indicate notable changes from 2016. Meanwhile, protestors...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While South Africa has its biggest maize crop in about forty years and will once again be an exporter, it will have difficulty shipping to some maize-starv...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s rather placid grain and soy futures trade was replaced by a return of the weather market overnight. Most prices for corn, wheat and soybeans qu...
NAFTA Objectives; Cotton Subsidies; GMO Transparency; Crooked Pointing
The White House released its negotiating objectives for NAFTA modernization, and there were mixed reactions. NAFTA Objectives Analyzed The White House rele...
House Budget Committee to Consider Budget Tomorrow
The House budget resolution has no specific instructions in the reconciliation package regarding spending cuts to farm and nutrition programs nor suggested...
Breaking Down U.S. Wheat Classes
While traders had become accustomed to a world wheat market dominated by other origins, the U.S. wheat crop in 2017 has drawn more market attention than du...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean and wheat futures finished the evening session about unchanged. Minneapolis wheat futures were then firmer this morning, soybeans turned high...
Guts Poker
The current U.S. (and Canada) growing season has not been as perfect as in the past three or four years, and it is starting to look much like guts poker, a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
A few trades of Bulgarian feed wheat were reported last week at €159/MT ($182/MT) FOB. After one particular development, though, the market is offered at €...
New Animal Disease Strategy Still Dependent on Traceability
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) Veterinary Services office announced an animal disease response plan, but that is dependent on th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybean basis moved sharply higher this week as Chinese buyers suddenly wanted to purchase August soybeans, both FOB and CNF. The basis CNF react...
Agricultural Trade Policy Moving
The EU, Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Uruguay have together proposed new disciplines on domestic agricultural supports. By contrast, the largest U.S. farm gro...
Market Commentary
Weather risk isn’t over yet, and the grains markets traded accordingly. Elsewhere, cattle and hog futures followed divergent paths as their fundamentals sh...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
Legislation to approve E15 blends of ethanol is moving in the Senate, but it has garnered opposition from the National Council of Chain Restaurants.As prev...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...
U.S. and World Wheat
There are several differences between WPI's wheat production estimates by country and USDA's 12 July numbers. The net result, though, is a significant shif...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI's 26 May notifiation of new rules that effectively banned the trading of cattle, including buffaloes, for slaughter at animal markets was met with a pe...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Domestic Supports; NAFTA; Crop Prices
Many WTO members would like to see new disciplines on domestic supports, but there is far from a consensus on how much and where. Future of Domestic Suppor...
Market Commentary
If anyone needed a tutorial on the dangers that lurk in weather markets, today’s grain and soy markets provided one. Longs may have taken a beating, but en...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
KORUS Leverage; Europe’s Ag Strategy
The U.S. has requested a joint committee meeting with South Korea under the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) with the goal of making it a “more bala...
U.S. Meat Exports Losing Leverage in Japan
The EU has negotiated a trade deal with Japan following on the Japan-Australia agreement of 2015. With the U.S. pulled out of the TPP, U.S. red meat export...
Takeaways from the July WASDE
The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for crops in the western Corn Belt invested yesterday’s July WADSE with perhap...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Imports and Purchase Agreement; WASDE; U.S. Soy Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia and Ukraine have both released the total volumes of their respective grain exports for MY 2016/17. Ukraine has also reportedly experienced a very si...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
The July WASDE conveyed an overall bearish tone for the grains, but it was mildly supportive for soybeans. As expected, it diverted market attention away f...
Refugee Value; Localization
University of Notre Dame researchers tracked refugees entering the U.S. in terms of outcomes and found there was one critical factor in success rates. Refu...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
EU Ag Council to Consider Soya Declaration
The proposal, which is intended to address the EU's feed protein deficit through a series of steps, is scheduled to be considered at the council...
Ag Appropriations Bill Directs FDA on Regulating Plant-Based Milks
Heretofore, the FDA has been uncooperative with the dairy and meat industries' fights against use of the terms “milk” and “meat” by plant-based substitutes...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was quite large again overnight, but it then slowed during the day session with prices recovering to levels around Monday’s closes. It was a...
Africa Realism; DET Dumping; Hamburg Hypocrites
U.S. biodiesel producers are now seeking retroactive antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of competing product from Argentina and Indonesia. Af...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt's problem with ergot has always been with the standard for wheat, which has been revised higher. However, the acceptable level has remained at 0.0 pe...
Many Questions, Few Answers
USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. However, circumstances have changed the intensity of interest as this year's edition c...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Appropriations Bill and Budget Resolution This Week?
The House of Representatives is likely to take up both the ag appropriations bill and the FY 2018 budget resolution this week. What will that mean for agri...
Market Commentary
Soybeans continue to lead the markets higher on the continuing treat of hot, dry weather encompassing more of the northern Plains and Corn Belt. Corn, thou...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quite active last week as many farmers took advantage of one particular development. Meanwhile, weathe...
G20 Trade Realism; Risky Forecasts
The OECD and FAO issued their annual long-range outlook (2017-2026) for global food commodity prices, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office makes the sa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The wheat markets are quiet with not much business reported for new crop since they heated up two weeks ago. Wheat with 11.5 percent protein rose to the mi...
The Weather Market Has Arrived
There hasn’t been one in the U.S. since 2012, and USDA is currently using the second-highest corn and soybean yields ever in its supply/demand analysis. It...
Squandering a Pittance; Barking Up the Wrong Tree; Italy First; New Market
The G90 is a group of poor developing countries that certainly deserve empathy, but their latest demands for policy change at the WTO ministerial in Buenos...
Is the “America First” Approach Changing Biofuel Policy?
The U.S. EPA has released the proposed 2018 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuels, the first such issued by the Trump administration, and it sign...
Market Commentary
The soybean story seems to be more about weather than demand. Today’s issue was that it is a Friday and forecasts can change over the weekend. Meanwhile, w...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Even though the MSPs for pulses and oilseeds have been increased for the khariff season, the market prices for the former are much lower. As a result, farm...
Is the Wheat Rally Real?
Minneapolis futures had an incredibly volatile week, but nothing really changed from a fundamental aspect other than the hard red spring wheat crop got sma...
What’s Ahead for Hog Prices?; PEDv in Canada; Ethanol Volumes; Woody Breast Syndrome
Hog prices are about to hit the summer doldrums, but how will they compare to last year’s levels? Meanwhile, PEDv is making a comeback in Canada, the EPA r...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
What the HRS Market Tells Us
For traders who have become used to a price movement of 25 cents being a big deal in grain and soy futures markets over the past few years, the current MGE...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Crush; Brazil’s Soy Exports; China’s Soybeans; French Biodiesel; Lower Cotton Prices
French Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot today indicated his country’s government will take steps to restrict the use of non-sustainable palm oil and soyo...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures prices are more or less following their own path and ignoring the gyrations of the wheat markets as those futures fell victim to their own...
RIN Investigation; Ag Export Hearing
U.S. EPA announced a review of the Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) system that undergirds the fuel ethanol utilization program and has issued a req...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The trends in Ukraine's milling wheat, feed wheat, and feed barley markets all changed last week, influenced by the start of the 2017 harvests. Meanwhile,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...
Self-Righteous Trade; A Rose; Biofuel Cut
The U.S. dairy industry has been fighting use of the term “milk” by nondairy products for nearly 20 years, and now the meat industry is gearing up for a fi...
Market Commentary
As a result of current weather forecasts, today’s futures markets seemed undecided about price direction as grain and soy prices swung back and forth in wi...
China In-Country Analysis
The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The demand for feed wheat at current prices is difficult to find as corn is about $10-20 cheaper. In Spain, the spread between Brazilian corn and Bulgarian...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The July 4th holiday in the U.S. typically marks the start of the most critical period of development for the corn and soybean crops, and there are several...
Market Commentary
The soy complex started firm overnight on the warmer, drier weather forecasts, and Minneapolis wheat futures continued to charge ahead last night and today...
Record Swine Herd
USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report shows a record swine herd and future stability in the sector.USDA’s most recently released quarterly Hogs and Pigs re...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Two factors drove basis higher, especially in the CNF market where the most liquid position has bee...
Trade Trouble; KROUS Redux; Back to Bite; Fuel Fight
The historical criticism is that America’s economic interests have taken a backseat to national security objectives, and despite his rhetoric demanding fai...
U.S. and China: Is the Honeymoon Over?
Trade talks between the U.S. and China yielded early and unexpected positive outcomes, which may now be in jeopardy.Foreign policy concerns took precedence...
Market Commentary
Soybeans had quite a trading range today, triggered by more bullish USDA stocks and acreage numbers than expected, and there was no stopping wheat in any o...
USDA Reports Positive Soybeans, Negative Corn
Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t contain any big surprises, but there were a few small ones.Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t co...
China’s Selective Interpretation; Precision Economy; Africa’s Burden
China is reportedly “concerned” by the impending Trump administration decision on whether to block certain steel and aluminum imports on the grounds of nat...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India rolls out its new Good and Services Tax (GST) starting 1 July 2017, the largest tax reform in quite some time is expected to possibly make Indian...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Cattle on Feed Way Up; Independence Day Cookout Slightly Cheaper
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Tariffs; High Methionine Soybeans; Canadian Oilseed Plantings; Soy Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex started out slowly with mixed price action, but volume picked up and prices began to firm as traders contin...
This Week’s Reports
Today's report from Statistics Canada and tomorrow's from USDA should present a good picture of how land has been planted with the major grain and oilseed...
Korean Curtsy; Trump Risks; WTO Agenda Outlook
The EU utilizes direct payments as a farm support mechanism, and they are considered the least distorting approach. Now, however, the CAP is under severe b...
Daft on NAFTA; Inverse Trade Views
The purpose of free trade negotiations is to reduce the barriers to cross-border transactions, but some want to use the “modernization” of NAFTA to actuall...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s landed price of imported soybeans dropped $14/MT to $387/MT even as the yuan fell slightly against the U.S. dollar. That lower cost, howe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices once again fluctuated insignificantly in RUB expression, but they decreased in USD expression as the ruble continued to weaken. Meanwh...
Market Commentary
The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining to constrain trading in grain and soy futures. The general quiet trend continued during to...
Ag Review: U.S. Grains and the Weather Market
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices firmed in rather active overnight trade, and a similar pattern followed in the day session. Shrinking spring wheat production...
EU-Japan; NAFTA +/-; Kowtowing; Budget Bobbing
EU negotiators are reportedly anxious to close a free trade agreement with Japan. Meanwhile, a report by the Congressional Research Service identifies the...
2017/18 U.S. Wheat Outlook
A great abundance of wheat supplies in the U.S. and a record-large volume in the world were the dominant features in 2016/17 that resulted in relatively lo...
Oilseed Highlights: Fungicide Development; Soybean Condition Ratings; Bangladesh’s Rising Soy Imports
Bangladesh is importing increasingly higher volumes of soybeans, and it has added a substantial amount of new processing capacity in recent years after rea...
House Appropriators Release Ag Funding Bill
Tomorrow the House Appropriations Committee’s subcommittee on Agriculture will consider farm and food program spending for FY 2018.The House Appropriations...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is seeking changes to its customs union with the EU. Industrial goods are currently covered, and there is talk of possibly adding agricultural produ...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybeans and Minneapolis wheat futures traded higher overnight, while KC and Chicago wheat traded lower. Markets then traded slightly higher all day...
232; Modi Monday; By Christmas; Don't Say Doha
The Trump administration is expected to release its Section 232 report late this week. The U.S. agriculture community is concerned that extrajudicial actio...
Border Adjustment Tax Idea Is Fading
Two of the top leaders in Congress, the speaker and the House Ways and Means Committee chairman, are running into stiff opposition to their border adjustme...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market is rebounding after weeks of weakness, and soybean production estimates are finalized in Argentina. Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s market...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The GASC purchased 55,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin last week, paying $207-209/MT CNF for 25 July-10 August shipment. There w...
Status of Barley and Oat Crops
The focus on the northern Plains drought has been on its potential impact on hard red spring wheat production, and that is important for several reasons. H...
Market Commentary
It is tough to have a corn or soybean rally in June when temperatures are below normal and there is at least some precipitation in the forecast. Wheat, led...
Distrust; TTIP Phoenix; Self-Flagellation
Japan is cool toward a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expended his political capital last year on the TPP. Ne...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The overall sowing of pulses crops in India is down 33.74 percent as of 23 June versus a year ago. Farmers are facing challenging planting decisions as som...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Trump on Ag: Rhetoric and Reality Gap
President Trump gave a speech in Iowa this week focusing heavily on ag, especially biofuels issues, but it is what was between the lines that raises some c...
Wheat Keeps Getting More Interesting
As spring crop ratings plunged again last week and hard red winter wheat protein levels continue to be a concern, issues with wheat production outside of N...
Market Commentary
The decline of corn and soybean futures prices in overnight trading accelerated during the day session as the July contracts for both moved below technical...
New Season for USDA Reports
On 30 June, the new season of USDA reports gets well underway. USDA may have a longer history of reporting on world agriculture than any other entity, and...
Selective Free Trade; GMO Suit; Salty; Local
EU leaders have spent ample time criticizing the “America First” message of Donald Trump and proclaiming faith in free trade, but their message will be dif...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Monsoon and Soybean Plantings; U.S. Soyoil Exports to Korea; Soy Export Sales; South American Soybean Updates
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Cattle on Feed; Fat Fight
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Market Commentary
Trading volume overnight was better than might be indicated by the lack of price movement, but it was unimpressive during the day session. Later during the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to decrease on the domestic market during the week of 12-16 June, reflecting the end-of-season trend. However, exp...
China In-Country Analysis
Two factors enabled the Canadian pork industry to greatly benefit in the past year from a surge in exports to China, hitting a record of nearly 314,000 MT...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: China Subsidy; EU and Soymilk; Argentine Soybeans; Potential Big Soy Buy
China had already implemented a subsidy this year to encourage farmers to plant more soybeans, and that production is likely to be even higher as a separat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Experts in South Africa are saying that the bumper 2017 grain crops will lead to lower prices for dairy products, meat and other grain-dependent items. Bec...
Market Commentary
Corn and soy complex futures traded rather quietly overnight with minimal price changes. However, wheat prices moved higher again. During the day session,...
An Important Three Weeks
While the grain and soy complex markets have already been in the early throes of a weather market, the next three weeks will provide a wide variety of fres...