FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 15 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets were mixed this week with Capes rising while Supramax vessel rates declined yet again. The Capesize sector found support from China’s recent efforts to stockpile coal and iron ore, but this support has not yet t...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle and Beef Imports
High cattle and beef prices are supporting imports. First, cattle imports through July are up 22.6 percent compared to last year. Imports from Canada are up 18.1 percent and imports from Mexico have increased 25.2 percent over the same period. This trend of increased imports certai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Cattle and Beef Markets and Brazil’s Cattle
This past week’s slaughter at 593,000 was down 7,000 head from the previous week and down 22,000 from last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in d...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-covering and buying pulled the latter two markets higher. Soybeans scored double-digit gains for the day while the corn market could only mana...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led to low activity for the week. Origination and FOB markets were quiet for both corn and wheat. Presently, with a weekly progress of almost 2...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short profit taking that helped the soy complex, while corn and wheat continued to drift lower amid weak technicals and bearish fundamental sentime...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a big U.S. crop. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report was released after the market close, but the crop conditions were already viewed as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario Grain Exchange is slightly more optimistic, estimating an area of 6.9 Mha, and a production of 21 MMT. The market, in general, is taking a m...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Weather, Modest Volume Sees Mostly Red
Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, corn and soybeans took deeper dives. Volumes were modest to lower, except in cattle futures. Despite expectations that the current hotter, drie...
Market Commentary: Some Higher Closes on Sideways Trade
Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July corn is up 9.75 cents (2.1 percent), July soybeans are 10.25 cents higher (0.8 percent), and July SRW is down 7.5 cents (-1.1 percent). ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course, Corn and Soy Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. That meant corn and soybeans saw more selling pressure as expectations call for larger U.S. crops and ending stocks for the coming year. Wheat,...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Accelerates; Corn, Soy Stabilized Before WASDE; Cattle and Hogs Diverge
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive selloff in wheat continued with funds eagerly selling into the weakness. One feature of the day’s trade was the Goldman roll, which h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration. Exporters must ship a minimum of 26 MMT by January 2025. Between June, July, and August alone, DJVEs account for 8.7 MMT, with an addition...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off a New Floor
Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For corn and soybeans, today broke a seven consecutive session losing streak, and HRW ended a six-session losing streak. Some in the trade...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong planting progress last week. Wheat futures tried to rally in early trade, but the corn and soy complex weakness pulled that market lower with add...
No Mimosas
Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encouraging producers to change their minds about planting intentions. An increase in area is certain; in fact, the top market seed varieties are al...
Market Commentary: Markets Enter May like a Lion, Leave as a Lamb
Usually, it’s the month of March that comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, but commodity markets chose to follow that pattern in May, which creates an interesting summer outlook. With Friday’s trade concluding the month of May, it’s notable that the major ag markets al...
Market Commentary: Pigs Fly, the Rest Swim
The market open is very telltale about the trade’s beliefs. It can open hard and fast in one direction or another, or it can move in small increments back and forth, reflecting less certainty about the direction. The latter was the case this morning involving corn and soybeans. By contras...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies an 8 percent delay compared to the five-year average. The progress is slowed as combines are still fully engaged in harvesting soybeans and...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...
Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop
The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Currently, Argentine farmers have harvested 22 percent of the corn area, with a weekly progress of only 2.3 percent. While soybean harvesting takes precedence and progresses much faster, farmers are only now able to enter some fields after the rains of the past few weeks. The Buenos Aires...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the fields. Moreover, the focus of those who can enter fields remains on soybeans, which are typically harvested as soon as possible and take p...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week without rain, Argentina’s corn harvest gained momentum and reached nearly 6 percent of the area. This had the consequent effect of increasing truck arrivals at ports, which was a relief for exporters who face a vessel lineup of 1.8 MMT of corn. Argentina has already expo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024
The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Brazil’s Meat Opportunity
Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s early corn harvest has begun in various regions of the country with good yields, although it's too early to draw conclusions as the harvested area has only reached 2 percent of the total area. While one should expect the harvest to pick up speed in the coming days, the fo...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise
The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...
Market Commentary: Higher CBOT and Corn Reversal Deny Long-Run Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned mostly higher to start the week amid some bullish fundamental developments and funds covering shorts after the market’s recent and wildly profitable plunge lower. Corn was the upside leader with the May contract posting a bullish key reversal on the chart as export inspect...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying
The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It is expected that extreme temperatures recorded in Argentina over the past fifteen days may reduce the corn crop’s yield potential, primarily in late-maturing corn (to be evaluated in the coming weeks). Currently, 53 percent of that crop is going through its critical period for yie...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Contract Lows; CBOT Relegated to Sideways/Lower Trade
Post-WASDE trade saw the CBOT markets largely continue their former trends with the February report – as usual – offering only minor adjustments to the supply and demand picture. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was the fall to new contract lows in corn futures as shorts continue...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Market Commentary: Bears Pile into Corn Ahead of WASDE; Other Markets Pause Before Report
Typically, trading the day before a major USDA report – including the WASDE – is muted and that statement held true for all but one commodity on Wednesday. The exception to the rule was corn where the market dropped to fresh contract lows in moderately heavy volume with bearish sent...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink, Soy Complex Rallies to Start Week; USD Rally Threatens Exports
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with the soy complex posting a bullish turnaround on stronger-than-expected export inspections and rising soymeal demand. Wheat futures drifted lower and maintained their sideways ranges with pressure from the Matif market helping pull prices into the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Like every other low-production year, the dynamics of Argentina’s FOB market are greatly reduced. On the one hand, there are fewer destinations where Argentina can compete and, on the other, there is less positioning by trading houses. In the current wheat campaign (December and Jan...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Meat Up Over Corn and Beans
Markets opened like the overnight, all flashing red except for cattle. Then at mid-morning wheat started flashing green. SRW, HRS and cattle hung on to close higher, while corn and the soy complex proved that Tuesday’s gains were just a dead cat bounce in an otherwise ongoing trend lower...
Market Commentary: Grains Turnaround Fizzles; Soymeal Surges on Domestic Demand
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday as the grain markets (corn and wheat) failed to follow through on Tuesday’s reversal and instead either sank lower or ended essentially unchanged while the soy complex continued Tuesday’s show of strength. Soymeal was the upside leader in the so...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday – Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal?
The CBOT posted a decisive Turnaround Tuesday with the soy complex, corn, and wheat all turning sharply higher and scoring bullish days on the charts. The odd thing was that the day’s rally came without clear fundamental justification, with the only really bullish story being Argentina&rs...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The quality issues (low test weight) in Argentina’s wheat that WPI has noted in recent weeks now seems to be quite localized in the Southwest of Buenos Aires province, near the port of Bahia Blanca. Nevertheless, there doesn't seem to be a current need for exporters to go out and se...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Bull Wheat, Bear Beans; Corn Takes a Break
There was notably higher volume trading soybeans, soyoil, HRW, and beef today. Each driven by different factors; all appeared to be driven more by fundamentals than stochastic parrots. Export sales were generally lower than the prior week, except for soyoil, but were higher than th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher, Creates Cautious Buying Cascade
The CBOT was mostly lower overnight with grain markets unable to find their footing after two bearish weeks and a weekend of favorable weather for Brazil and Argentina. The day session offered a bit of relief for bulls, however, with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil finding their way to higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2022/23 Crop Export Update The historic drought that impacted Argentina one year ago resulted in a drastic 38 percent decline in grain production during the 2022/23 season, reaching only 83.4 MMT, the lowest figure since 2008/09. This decline had a significant impact on agro-industrial shipment...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce
After hitting new contract lows in corn and wheat again today, there was a turnaround led by wheat. However, without any change in the underlying fundamentals, it is difficult to call it new support. Since last Friday’s January WASDE report, March corn is down 13.75 cents, March soybeans...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Corn, Wheat; Cattle & Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with traders still reacting to the bearish implications of the January WASDE. For bulls, matters seem to keep getting worse as competion from South America continues to rise. Brazilian FOB offers for soybeans are plunging lower while the Rosario Grain Excha...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Drifting Lower into Planting Season?
The January WASDE and Grains Stocks reports are now past, but their impacts continued to drive CBOT price action to start the holiday-shortened week. Corn and wheat saw significant pressure from the WASDE’s bearish implications while soybeans saw two-sided trade under the bullish influenc...
Transatlantic Commonality; Argentina’s NTB’s
Transatlantic Commonality Politico’s senior foreign correspondent Nahal Toosi noted that ambassadors in Washington are warning that U.S. power and influence in the world is declining due to the nation’s intense partisan political divide. But it is not exactly glory days in Europe. F...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Shipping, Export Concerns Push CBOT Lower; WASDE Expectations and Forecasts
The CBOT turned lower with just two days before the January WASDE and Grain Stocks report after export prospects dimed following more terrorist attacks in the Red Sea. U.S. and British naval forces shot down 21 drones and missiles fired by Iranian-backed, Yemeni Houthi rebels on Tuesday in what...
Market Commentary: Grains Post Turnaround Tuesday; Lean Hog Technical Rally Continues
The CBOT posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with grain and oilseed markets finding their way to higher ground after two weeks of steadily lower trade. There was little fundamental reason for the day’s strength and most of the buying activity was short covering and position adjustin...
Market Commentary: No Rest for the Bullish
The CBOT followed its bearish drumbeat lower with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal all logging steep declines for the day. Corn and Paris wheat futures scored a new contract low while soybeans drifted to their lowest level since June. Of course, the driver of the day’s weakness was more...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Export Sales, Brazil Rains; Hogs Battle Industry Inelasticity
The CBOT saw corn and soybeans break lower overnight and extend that weakness in the day session with poor export sales data and favorable South American rains offering ample pressure. Corn futures scored a new contract low and are barley above three-year lows right now while the soybean market...
Brazil Politics and Generic Pesticides
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed into law a new pesticide registration statute that will benefit the approval of generic pesticides. The new law grants greater discretionary authority to the Ag Ministry in approving and overseeing pesticides. President Lula did u...
Market Commentary: And the Downward Beat Goes On
There was higher volume in SRW, HRW and lean hogs but overall volumes remained modest, and the export wire is quiet. The latter perhaps influenced by a strong dollar. This leaves ample room for bearish weather news to ricochet around the market. Thus far in this abbreviated first trading week o...
2023: A Look Back in Humor
Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction. Jan...
Market Commentary: Greenback Pressures Wheat; Crude Rally Lifts Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT saw pressure for the second straight day with a four-day rebound in the U.S. dollar working against grain values. While the rising greenback pressured all markets, wheat was the only major ag market to end lower as the stronger currency highlights the export threat from Russia. Corn an...
Market Commentary: 2024 Trending Bearish Grains, Optimistic for Cattle
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened trading week with an old fashion hard open on Tuesday morning with no overnight trade to guide initial investment. That meant markets were slammed by sell orders stemming from weekend rains in Brazil and forecasts for more over the coming weeks. Soybeans g...
Market Commentary: Wheat Escapes Doldrums; Corn, Soy Complex Drift Lower
Except for wheat, the CBOT and CME’s major ag markets were uniformly lower in a relatively unexciting trading session Thursday. Wheat managed to escape the mid-holiday doldrums after news broke that a civilian bulk cargo vessel hit a Russian sea mine in the western Black Sea. The obvious...
Market Commentary: Post Holiday Flush
Traders must have gotten some cash in their Christmas stockings because there was a slight buying mood in the market today. Except for bean oil and pork, most contracts turned higher today. The reopening of the southern border and exports late on Friday no doubt flushed out one bearish pressure...
Market Commentary: Slow Day but Notable Reports for Next Week
Trading volumes today were down 40-50 percent in some commodities, but the bottom line was some exiting and losses from the week before an extended holiday period. The story line no doubt is improved weather in Brazil and the U.S. Midwest, transportation hurdles, and stiff competition from both...
Oilseed Highlights: Improving Weather and Challenging Logistics
The Market Oilseed markets have seen more pressure than support this week due to improved weather forecasts for Brazil and increasingly challenging global export and transportation logistics. Through Thursday’s close, March CBOT soybeans are down 2.2 percent (29¾ cents) since...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Shipping, Export Concerns Mount; Corn Finds New Lows
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure building from increasingly challenging shipping logistics around the world. The situation in the Panama Canal is well known but recent escalations in Middle East tensions and re-routing of ships around the Red Sea are causing more h...
Market Commentary: KCBT Wheat Upside Leader in Mixed Day; Livestock Futures Fall Ahead of Reports
Conflicting supply and demand factors resulted in mixed trade at the CBOT once again, but the surprise of the day was KCBT wheat’s 2.2 percent rally – a move that outshone other ag market trade. As discussed later in this report, there was little clear evidence for the KC market&rsq...
Ag Exports Not the Panacea
According to the FAO agricultural trade index, Africa has experienced the relatively largest jump in the past decade, followed by North and South America. Yet the share of global GDP for both Africa and South America remains low. Despite the boom in agricultural exports where it is now dominati...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy Updates Argentina’s new government led by Javier Milei has begun and several new measures have been implemented. Despite being unpopular and restrictive, these measures promise to adjust the macroeconomic landscape over the coming months and eventually reduce inflation and free mar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies
Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week’s activity had already been completed. The soy complex was mixed as soybeans and soymeal were mostly lower while soyoil rallied on te...
Market Commentary: Fed Continues to Fuel Recovery
Today’s open followed last night’s close with corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher. The market subsequently dipped but only corn and soyoil failed to end the session in the green. Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement indicating a likely end to interest rate hikes and potentia...
Market Commentary: Policy Front and Center for Commodity Trade
Macroeconomic and commodity market policy factors were front and center for the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, following the devaluation of the Argentine peso and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Both policy decisions came in as expected with the Fed holding rates unchanged...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Market Commentary: Trend Reversals to Start the Week
The CBOT’s Monday trade saw two notable reversals from the recent week’s trends. The first was the strength in soybean futures, which erased all last week’s losses on Monday due to more hot, dry weather for central and northern Brazil. The second reversal was in wheat where fu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the same time, it was the week before the newly elected President took office on Sunday, and expectations of a dramatically different approach to...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the area. Most fields are being harvested 7-10 days earlier than usual, which is why at this point last year the harvest was only 20 percent comple...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Brazil’s Corn at Greater Risk than Soybeans
Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moisture and intense heat in major central and norther production areas. However, corn was more adversely impacted than soybeans in both of those p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of foreign currency that exporters can re-enter into the system through the free exchange market (financial dollar). Now, exporters can allocate 50...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as do Rains in Brazil; Livestock Futures Find Post-Holiday Selloff
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds complex while cash market weakness sent livestock futures tumbling. Trading volume was above-average for most markets compared to most post...
Market Commentary: CBOT Edges Lower in Risk-Off, Pre-Holiday Trade
CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading day on Friday. While the dynamics of futures exchange trading hours played a role in the day’s trade, the general lack of fresh news was...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Overcomes Weak Start to Post Big Gains; Wheat Finds New Lows
The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early losses, however, were fully erased by midday and both markets posted sharp gains due to China’s import program and the long-term outlo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and will assume his role on 10 December 2023. In his campaign, he promised to move the country’s economy to the U.S. dollar, eliminate expor...
Market Commentary: Wetter Brazil Forecast Sends Corn, Soy Lower; KC Wheat Hits 2-Year Low
Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacted the soybean first corn crops currently being planted, but also the planting prospects of the safrinha – or double-crop – corn...
Market Commentary: Good Exports but Brazilian Wildcard
The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late morning and while lean hogs wobbled, both were in the green at the close. Despite the downbeat of the past two sessions, corn and the s...
Market Commentary: Failed Turnaround Tuesday; Inflation Data Emboldens Markets
Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was not to be, however, as the soy complex found strong buying interest from ongoing soymeal demand and sharp gains in Malaysian palm oil that pu...
Market Commentary: China Buying and Soymeal Demand Sends Soy Complex, Corn Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds were active buyers in both markets with strong spot demand for soymeal driving that market’s rally while soybeans rallied on Chinese b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Thanks to the recent good weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving from north to south and total harvest has reached 15 percent of the area. Yields are coming in below expectations, so the Rosario Grain Exchange again reduced its crop estimation from 14 to 13.5 MMT. Rains arr...
European Market Analysis
Through 9 November, Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 90 percent of the total area and spanned 9.84 million hectares (MHa). The total crop is 51.275 MMT, of which corn production has hit 21.22 MMT and the harvest is 72 percent complete. Sunflower seed production has hit 11.52 MMT and just 3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Quiet to End WASDE Week; Bullish South America Weather Looms
The WASDE’s bearish implications continued to push CBOT futures lower on Friday with funds finding little reason to abandon short positions in corn and wheat. The soybean market saw some gains to end the week, however, traders thought Thursday’s 20-cent, post-WASDE selloff, like man...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks, up 25 million on higher yields, to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price was reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cen...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. This month’s 2023/24 global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Market Commentary: Tweaks and Surprises
Futures closed mostly lower with USDA’s mid-session November WASDE report causing a drop-off on higher production and stocks. U.S. Wheat Increased imports by 10 million bushels. Raised ending stocks by 14 million bushels. Lowered the season average price by 10-cents to $7.20/bushe...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply Ahead of November WASDE
The November WASDE usually isn’t a major market-moving event, but you wouldn’t know that from how CBOT futures reacted just one day before the report. Wheat – the bearish laggard of the grain complex – jumped to 20+ cent gains at mid-week with little apparent reasoning...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Start Week Firm; Soybeans Rally as Technicals Lead Fundamentals?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with corn and wheat finding small gains on light buying interest while soybeans jumped higher on export demand and a rally in soyoil. Soyoil futures were nearly 3 percent higher for the day with noted bull spreading in a likely sign of commercial demand. F...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest now covers 10 percent of the total area with an average yield of 1.1 MT/ha. It's important to remember that the harvest begins in the northern part of the country where yields are typically low, and this year, they were further impacted by adverse weather c...
Market Commentary: End of Week Strength Creates Firmer Outlook
The CBOT offered a few surprises to end the week with the major grain markets ending higher with strong buying interest. Corn futures posted a 7-cent gain on Friday after threatening their seasonal lows on Thursday with funds and commercials viewing prices below $4.75 as a value-buying opportun...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Rally, Grains Side Sideways as Harvest Enters Final Stages
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with corn futures drifting sideways while soymeal and soybeans pulled back from recent strength. Wheat futures were mostly lower, but the KCBT market managed to post a hook reversal for the day, which indicates support may be starting to enter the mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After Argentina’s recent presidential election and in anticipation of the runoff election, the current government extended the possibility for all exports of goods and services to access 30 percent of the foreign currency at a higher exchange rate. This move was made to keep financi...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Finally Turnaround; China Washes Out Brazilian Soy Cargoes
The CBOT largely followed its existing trends into the weekend, which meant rallies in soymeal and soybeans, new contract lows in wheat, and sideways trade in corn and soyoil. Live cattle futures finally posted what WPI views as an overdue correction from Monday’s collapse with steady/fir...
Market Commentary: Wheat Had Volume and Gains
The market opened mostly in the green this morning after overnight markets showed small gains for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. About mid-session, corn and the soybean complex began trading both sides unchanged while wheat retained some upward if less lofty positions. In fact,...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Flashes Reversal; South American Rains Douse Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT was heavily influenced by fresh forecasts for beneficial rains in South America over the next two weeks. Rains will offer relief to drought-afflicted Argentina and keep Brazil’s soybean planting (roughly one-third finished so far) moving forward. Moreover, the shift toward a wett...
Market Commentary: CBOT Fails to Maintain Technical Strength; COF Report Sinks Cattle Futures
Last week’s trade saw major ag commodities rally on bullish technical developments with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all topping key chart points. That strength did not last, however, as the CBOT turned lower in what was a weak day across most markets. The situation in the Middle East cont...
Elections and Consequences: Argentina and U.S.House Speaker
Argentina held its national election yesterday, including the multi-candidate presidential race. The results are in: no candidate garnered the necessary 45 percent to win outright so the election will move to a 19 November two candidate run-off. The two qualifying candidates are current Economy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Market Overview and Election Results Last week there was very little activity in the markets leading up to Sunday’s elections. The government completely restricted the exchange market, both formal and informal, to prevent a significant depreciation of the Argentine peso prior to the...
Market Commentary: Topsy-Turvey
Markets traded mostly in the red during the first half of the day’s and then corn, soybeans/meal and wheat turned right-side up. There are a lot of mixed signals. The bears still see it as sideways at best in the middle of harvesting. The bulls appreciate that the demand side is still cru...
Market Commentary: Export News and Rumors Create Mid-Week Strength
Strength developed at the CBOT on Wednesday with another strong rally in soymeal helping pull soybeans higher and, in turn, support the corn market as well. Fresh news is a bit lacking right now, so export news and rumors of possible sales have an outsized influence on the market. Soybeans cont...
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Show Strong Consumer Spending; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with a surge in soymeal futures helping pull soybeans higher amid a lack of fresh fundamental commodity news. Indeed, the biggest news of the day was more pertinent for the macroeconomic markets (equities, bonds, currencies, etc.) as the retail sales report showed...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Report; Exports Improve as Barge Rates Fall
The soy complex was the upside leader at the CBOT to start the week with a bullish NOPA report driving the markets. NOPA reported a record-large September crush and soyoil stocks at nine-year lows, which sent soybeans and soyoil futures higher for the day. Beyond that, grain and livestock marke...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Sorghum Little has been said about the sorghum crop in Argentina, but it is having a very particular year. The 2023 crop produced 2.5 MMT according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on 845,000 hectares of harvested land. This is far below the nearly-3.5 MMT harvested in 2020/21 and 2021/...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA kept their estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels for U.S. soybean ending stocks. The estimate for U.S. production was reduced 42 million on lower yields, but beginning stocks were increased and soybean exports reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion (due to increased competition fro...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels to 2,111 million bushels for 2023/24. This is still a healthy ending stocks, but the estimated season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers was raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 1...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina The disparity in wheat cultivation in Argentina is something rarely seen. Looking at the South and Southeast areas of Buenos Aires province, the wheat crops are large, beautiful and with a potential yield that is within historical or even above historical levels. Outside o...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Supply Expectations; Hog Trend Reversal Underway?
The CBOT was mostly lower in lackluster trade Wednesday with soymeal, live cattle, and hogs seeing the only substantial gains. The general trend for the week seems to be that global grain and oilseed supplies will be more ample for 2023/24 than expected, which is weighing on futures. Grains wer...
Argentina’s Declining Wheat
El Nino continues to disrupt crop production around the world, and it is not done with Argentina. The country suffered a record crop falloff last season due to the weather phenomenon and now a similar pattern of dryness is impacting two-thirds of the wheat area. The result is a declining wheat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Outlook The arrival of the expected "El Niño" weather event for Argentina continues to be delayed, and the situation is becoming more complex every day. There is a very large area that includes the western part of Buenos Aires, the eastern part of La Pampa, the provinces of...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,000 MT, which now stands at a total production of 15 MMT. This is because the area from the center of the Cordoba Province northward and wes...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Since our last report, there have been some rains in much of the agricultural region that was affected by drought, especially in the Nucleus region and the South of Córdoba. The rains saved many wheat fields. However, some fields have already suffered irreversible damage, and other...
Market Commentary: Declining Crop Ratings Push CBOT Higher; Wheat Rallies on Russian Attacks
Tuesday’s surprise (but not entirely unexpected) decline in U.S. corn and soybean conditions ratings, in tandem with more Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, sent the CBOT sharply higher overnight. KCBT wheat was the only market, however, to maintain most of its strength with CBOT wheat,...
Brazil and China Dominate Beef Market
A drop in U.S. beef exports is corresponding with the cattle cycle fall in production. U.S. beef production is falling by a half million tons, with domestic consumption losing about half that amount, and reduced exports offsetting about a third of the lower output. The export drop looks more si...
Market Commentary: Paris Contract Leads Wheat Lower; Better Conditions Pressure Corn, Soy
The CBOT was entirely red across the major ag commodities Tuesday as weak technical conditions and better than expected crop conditions pressured trader sentiment. Monday’s Crop Conditions report featured bearish surprises in that last weeks’ heatwave didn’t result in the shar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The trend for Argentina’s wheat fields is that good plots continue to improve while stressed crops continue to worsen. The country saw rain last week that fell over the south/center agricultural area with good moisture conditions. However, in the central and northern parts of the ag...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to global GDP than the G7 (30.7 percent). They also comprise 26.7 percent of the world's land surface and 41.5 percent of the global population...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Ukraine Starts Export Corridor; Soy Rallies on Scorching Forecast
The U.S. weather was just as hot and dry over the weekend as expected and this week’s outlook is unchanged with scorching temperatures predicted for most of the Midwest and Plains. You wouldn’t know it from futures’ price action on Monday, however, as corn and wheat futures pl...
Argentina Elections and Trade implications
Argentina has an upcoming Presidential election in October. Candidates in Argentina run in an open, or what is called in the U.S. a “jungle,” primary as is done in a couple of states for Senate and Congressional races (Georgia and Louisiana). The top individual vote getters move to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics After Argentina’s elections and currency devaluation, it experienced another week filled with rumors and uncertainty. Financial and parallel exchange rates adjusted automatically, causing the gap against the official rate to exceed 100 percent, which was worse than before t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Politics This weekend, Argentina’s primary elections were held to determine candidates for the general elections scheduled for October, which will define the President, governors, and part of the Chambers (Congress). The results were surprising as Javier Milei (liberal...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more than use and that caused ending stocks to decline by 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn In addition to implementing a differential exchange rate for corn, exporters were granted a 240-day extension to fulfill export permits that had shipment dates between 24 July and 30 September and the exportable surplus was increased to 26 MMT. With this extension, the government eases pre...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The New Agro Dollar Finally, the government confirmed a new agricultural exchange rate – the “agro dollar” program, from which soybeans are excluded. The following products are subject to a higher exchange rate (340 ARS/USD) until 31 August 2023: corn, barley, sunflower, malt,...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts
Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure. That alone would have been enough to send markets into rally mode, but it was coupled with a third bullish factor – an extremely hot a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Politics and “Agro Dollar” Rumors In an environment plagued by rumors and uncertainty, Argentina has become a country where normal business operations are nearly impossible. The constant prospect of new announcements tends to paralyze markets. Ultimately, the announcements are...
Market Commentary: Improved August Weather Forecast Prompts Profit Taking
The CBOT pulled back heading into the weekend on profit taking and NOAA’s new August weather forecast that shows more moderate temperatures and normal rains for most of the Corn Belt and Midwest. While any forecast longer than 10-days has been highly inaccurate this summer, the latest gui...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 87 percent of the expected wheat area has been planted, currently covering 6 Mha (compared to 6.3 Mha in the previous season). In contrast, the Rosario Grain Exchange estimates 5.4 Mha of seeded area (compared to 5.9 Mha in the previous...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA reduced their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, 50 million lower than last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $375.00...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 2,262 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged relative to last month. Global corn stocks are up 0.1...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat This week Argentina saw low intensity rains, but they again fell on areas that at this moment do not have any need of the moisture. On the other hand, the western portion of the agricultural area and a large part of the nucleus region continue to suffer with no rain. Many farmers have alr...
Know Thy Brother; Remembering Abe
Know Thy Brother Europe and Latin America had one of the weirder policy exchanges of the week. Heads of state from the Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) travel to Europe 17-18 July and are debating a communique with the EU ahead of the visit. Europe has targeted Latin American countri...
Atypical BSE and the WOAH; What Will China Do?
The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) announced last month that it has removed atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) from the list of animal diseases that require compulsory notification. As WPI covered in May, A 5-year-old cow in South Carolina was discovered to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat sowing is progressing at a good pace thanks to favourable weather conditions, and with a weekly progress of almost 14 percent, 71 percent of the expected area has been sown. There are still areas with virtually no moisture reserves (see map below with the areas of...
Market Commentary: Major Surprises in Acreage, Grain Stocks Reports; Cattle Hit New Highs
USDA’s highly anticipated June Acreage estimates and quarterly Grain Stocks reports did not fail to live up to their hype and brought several significant surprises on Friday. This article will detail the reports and their implications in the next paragraphs, but in summary, corn planted a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat outlook for the 2023/24 season continues to worsen and fall below expectations. The lack of rainfall in the western areas of Buenos Aires province, the northern and western nucleus region, and Cordoba is hindering farmers’ ability to sow fields. Many farms ei...
Brazil Grain Storage Increases
Much like the U.S. historically, Brazil’s capacity to store its grain (wheat, coarse grains, rice, soybeans) output has been increasing with its production gains. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the number of silos being built is growing faster than bulk...
Market Commentary: More Weather Premium
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. New crop futures traded higher again today as there is still no improvement in a weather pattern that compelled USDA to drop the share of corn and soybeans rated Good/Excellent to lows not seen in four years a...
Market Commentary: Lack of Rain Driving Out Shorts
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. Agricultural commodity futures continue to be driven by the El Nino advisory and its associated weather. While some parts of the Corn Belt received some moisture this past weekend, too many areas were missed...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Trade activity was more quiet last week in Brazil. China made purchases for July and August positions but the number of vessels involved was limited. Some trading companies took advantage of the recent drop in prices and bought positions. For instance, an August shipment that was previ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projection for U.S. soybeans is for 2023/24 ending stocks of 350 million bushels, up 15 million from 2022/23. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 123.3 million with higher stocks for the United States, Brazil, and the EU being partly offset by lower stock...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s projection for U.S. corn is for increases to both beginning and ending stocks: U.S. exports are lowered 50 million bushels and ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels to 2,257 - this is well above the 2022/23 ending stocks of 1,452 million bushel. The season-average farm price...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Beats WASDE Story
Before the June report was issued, corn and wheat were trading lower and soybeans were up by around 18 cents. Overall, the report was bearish both corn and soybeans, and somewhat bullish wheat. But that is not how the market necessarily played it. Corn and HRW understandably closed lower and SR...
Market Commentary: Weather Everywhere
Today’s trading brought corn and wheat back down to earth based on possible improved rains next week. Emphasis on possible since nothing is assured. Such a dry start is usually not the opening to a bin buster and all eyes are first on tomorrow’s weekly Drought Monitor report, next o...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans It seems that there were several traders who were long on positions and suddenly became nervous as the demand failed to materialize. Consequently, prices started to decline rapidly with some trading houses reaching the limits of positioning. This required some traders to sell off...
Market Commentary: Weather Market
Thursday’s release of USDA’s weekly Drought Monitor report reinforced that new crops in the ground could begin to feel some stress. The report showed abnormally dry conditions throughout most of the U.S. production zone. The early season dryness could really impact corn, whic...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trade Reflects Long Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a bearish note with expectations for strong planting progress across the U.S. and sluggish demand weighing on markets. Friday’s CFTC report that showed continued fund short selling in major ag commodities also helped keep markets on the defensive to start the...
Market Commentary: Wishy Washy
Sometimes markets trade with momentum, an ongoing path in the same direction. Sometimes there are reversals. There is often a day trading open that initially copies the overnight close. Then there are days in which big money seems to not know which way to go. Days like today when July soybeans...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm as Wheat Posts Reversal; Soy Complex Plays Defense
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat firming with increased short covering and buying interest amid oversold technical conditions and recent selloff lows. Growing concerns about Russia’s refusal to allow grain export vessels into one Ukrainian port also helped put a bid under...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Short Covering Rally Amid Long-Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with short covering on deeply oversold technical conditions and a dry 10-day weather forecast for the central and eastern Corn Belt offering support. Soybeans led the move higher overnight and posted strong gains during the day session with corn followin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There was a lot of anticipation regarding the rains that were forecast for this past weekend, and most of the Buenos Aires province received a good amount of precipitation. Although it’s still not the 100-120 mm need to recover the soil profiles, it will help farmers start planting...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues Despite Tour Yields; Corn, Soybeans Score New Lows
The CBOT was, once again, mostly lower to end a week of strong selling as fund liquidation and speculative short selling continued. There was little fresh fundamental news for the day - and what bullish news developed for the wheat market was mostly ignored – which left the market to cont...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat prices continue to rise in Argentina’s local market, mainly due to millers’ participation as farmer sales remain low. While many mills still have sufficient stocks for a few months, they cannot afford to stop buying as there are many months remaining until the arrival of...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. Soybean exports are for...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn is for higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10 percent from last year on increases to both area and yield. The yield projection of 181.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adju...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Market Commentary: A Story of Mixed Proportions
It might be called pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report, but it looked like more of the same. Corn and wheat took their dings, but soybeans and meal were immune. The trend is down, and this week of trading has reinforced that dynamic. But it isn’t an exuberant a...
Market Commentary: HRW Wheat Rally Continues While Corn, Soybeans Await WASDE
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly focused on positioning for the May WASDE report that USDA will release on Friday. That meant relatively quiet trade in corn and the soy complex where early rallies met selling pressure that knocked contracts off their highs for the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat markets in Argentina have started to react to the ongoing drought and its impact on the wheat planting effort. This has resulted in higher prices and bids, primarily in the local market. In the FOB market, the country is already too expensive to compete with other major exporters to...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finds Support while Wheat Falls Further
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with wheat futures tumbling to new lows under pressure from Black Sea values and the EU’s recent move to block imports of Ukrainian grain into five key countries. Recent precipitation in the U.S. also kept futures on the defensive and funds remain eage...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn To date, 17.5 percent of Argentina’s corn area has been harvested. Currently, combines are in the center of the country harvesting the early corn crop and yields continue well below recent years’ averages. However, total harvest estimates remain around 34-35 MMT. Local market p...
Market Commentary: Few Deliveries, Short Covering Help CBOT Shake Off Thursday’s Drubbing
The CBOT started the overnight and day sessions with pronounced weakness and follow-through selling from Thursday’s collapse in grain values. That selling did not last past midday, however, and the major ag markets posted a strong recovery by the closing bell. Perhaps the most impressive...
Market Commentary: Not Rosy Like Wall Street
Outside markets were screaming hot today, but most agricultural commodities not so much. Tech companies boosted the Nasdaq by 2.43 percent and pulled along the Dow by nearly 2 percent and the S&P by almost 1.5 percent. But upbeat tech corporate earnings reports had no impact on grains and o...
Market Commentary: Rains Fall and So Does Wheat; Brazil Still Driving Corn, Soy Lower
The CBOT was mostly red again on Wednesday with favorable rains in the Southern Plains pressuring wheat futures, which broke below technical support zones again today. Corn and soybeans were mostly lower as well, though the soybean market is starting to show some signs of stabilizing, as pressu...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces off Support; Bears Drive Wheat, Soy Complex Lower
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday as fund liquidation and short-selling continued amid pressure from the massive Brazilian soybean crop and promises for an equally formidable safrinha corn crop. Brazil seems to be dominating the market discussion right now, especially in the soy complex, and...
Market Commentary: Technical, Fund Selling Drive CBOT Lower to Start the Week
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week amid a combination of technically driven and fund position liquidation selling. After the charts turned weak at the end of last week, funds were already starting to lighten up on long positions and continued that trend with more vigor on Monday. Recen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The moisture content of corn still standing in Argentina’s fields continues to fall, allowing for faster harvest progress. To date, 15 percent of the area has been harvested with an average yield of 4.1 MT/ha. Even though Argentina will have a much smaller crop than in previous...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sharply Lower on Weak Charts and Good Brazilian Weather
Weak charts and good weather for Brazilian crops pressured the CBOT at week’s end with the major market ending sharply lower. After corn and soybeans failed to overcome resistance earlier this week, fund selling and position liquidation has dominated the trade, and cheap Brazilian soybean...
Market Commentary: Weaker Day on Weather and Demand
There was red across the board today, except in red meat where there was green. Lots of variables this time of year but especially weather help to unhinge some of the speculative interest. The focus seemed to be more on rain hitting the U.S. production area and especially HRW, as opposed to a r...
Argentina Drought Solution
Each week estimates for Argentina’s crop output decline as this season’s drought takes its toll. Some say it is the worst drought in 60 years, others say it is in 100 years. The most significant drought most recent to this one occurred in 2017/18. It is evident that in the central-w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The corn harvest has picked up speed and almost 13 percent of the area has been harvested to date. Farmer selling of corn supplies has been slowly improving, except for the week when the new “soy dollar” or “agri dollar” was announced. That week saw...
Livestock Round Up: Trade and Global Production Outlook
USDA released its Livestock and Poultry quarterly trade update this week, showing a mix of exports coming on to the global market. Global beef trade is forecast to stay virtually the same as 2022, pork is forecast to be down, and broiler meat to increase about 1 percent. That compares to foreca...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts is unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean meal prices are also unchanged. The soybean oil price is projected at 64.0 cents per pound, down 2 cents. Global 2022/23 soybean production is reduc...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.275 bil...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports, based on the pace of Census imports reported to date. Domestic use is lo...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Supportive Soybeans, Neutral Corn
The CBOT was mixed heading into the WASDE report with soybeans showing surprising strength and corn paring back some of Monday’s short-covering gains while wheat was flat/slightly lower. The WASDE produced the typical volatile reaction immediately after its release, but markets soon stead...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Hit New Highs After Record Trade Last Week
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the April WASDE on Tuesday, though the soy complex lagged the grain markets’ gains. Wheat futures were higher after Russia threatened last Friday to essentially ignore the Black Sea grain export corridor deal unless barriers to its own exports are r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Market Overview Last week’s trading in Argentina was shortened as both Thursday and Friday were holidays. Additionally, before the week began, the government announced new measures for an agricultural exchange rate, i.e., recreating the famous “soy dollar”. There...
Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight
The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feature more favorable planting conditions for most of the Midwest and Northern Plains in the next few weeks, which helped pressure corn, soybea...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Red on Turnaround Tuesday
Nearly every major agricultural futures market was lower on Tuesday as the impact of USDA’s recent reports seemed to wear off. The third round of Argentina’s “soy dollar” program and the lack of fresh export sales news for corn sent the soy complex and corn futures lower...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s March wheat exports ended at almost 400 KMT, 80 percent of which went to Brazil. There was also one vessel sold to Chile, one to Colombia, and one to Peru. Total exports so far this season are 1.85 MMT, which is still historically low but if the current trends continue,...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won't fall further. The harvest is complete across approximately 5 percent of the area with an average yield of 3.45 MT/ha. Everyone was expecti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of selling hitting all three markets after the morning opening. That pressure helped push corn lower initially, though old crop futures manage...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowly to cover their spot needs, and only from time to time will exporters come out to sell part of their wheat. Consequently, prices in the loc...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s soil moisture maps are, frankly, scary. The moisture profiles are totally dry, and in many cases soils need more than 200 mm to recover. Different weather forecasts show the end of the La Nina for the short term, but rains are still not coming. The southeastern...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Firm to End Punishing Week; Technical Weakness Pushes Cattle, Soyoil Lower
After a bloodbath of a week, the CBOT finally showed some signs of support and higher trade on Friday. Wheat was actually the upside leader (yes, you read that correctly), due largely to short-covering and risk-off trade related to Russia’s increased attacks in Ukraine and the risks facin...
Market Commentary: Weird, Weird Day
Today’s market opened generally tracking the higher close in the overnight session. It was bolstered by more cuts in expected Argentina production. But then USDA’s Export Sales report indicated marketing year record low soybeans sales last week and there was an about face that turne...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Market Commentary: WASDE Features Deep Cuts to Argy Crops, U.S. Corn Exports
The CBOT was, as it usually is, solely focused on the USDA’s WASDE report that came out at Noon today. Heading into the report, ag futures were mixed in light volume trade with wheat and corn heading lower while soybeans were 6-7 cents higher. The WASDE offered little fundamental informat...
Market Commentary: Short-Covering Lifts Wheat; Soy Complex Falls on Plunging Crude and Soyoil
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was largely devoted to pre-WASDE report positioning and position evening. Wheat futures staged a mild turn-around and settled a few cents higher amid deeply oversold technical conditions. Soybean futures turned lower as a pronounced selloff in crude oil and soyoil pul...
Market Commentary: Red-Hot Meal Market Pulls Soybeans Higher; Funds Retain Bearish Control of Wheat
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with just two full trading days before the March WASDE report. There was a good bit of pre-report positioning that occurred on Monday but trading volumes were still surprisingly heavy, except for corn. The major surprise of the CBOT continues to be soymeal,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The weather continues to give no respite for Argentina’s corn crop. The country is experiencing a heat wave with few precedents at a time of relentless drought no predicted rains. Both crop conditions and moisture conditions continue to deteriorate week by week. Presently, 63 percent...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie
It was a mixed day but mostly lower volume (except for soyoil) as the market appears generally comfortable with current values. Even Russia’s charge that Ukraine has attacked the Motherland did not cause a reaction. Thus far this week, corn is down 10 cents, soybeans down 4, and SRW off b...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Join the Selloff; Liquidation Trade Obliterates Technical Support
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with corn breaking below key technical support points and wheat posting another set of selloff lows. Paris wheat futures set the tone for the grain markets overnight and declined to their lowest levels since September 2021. The big surprise for the day, how...
Market Commentary: Fund Selling Punishes Corn, Wheat; Brazil’s Progress More Influential than Argy Weather
Funds were still aggressive net sellers to start the week and drove wheat and corn futures to new selloff lows. Both markets also received fundamental pressure from international competition (e.g., Russia’s cheap wheat offers) and, in the case of corn, slow U.S. exports. The day’s p...
China Driving Changes in Brazilian Beef Production
Brazil last week reported a case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE); it was discovered in a seven-year-old cow in the northern state of Pará. About 25 percent of Brazil’s beef herd is in the northern region. Lab tests from the World Organization for Animal Health fa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Although there has been a change in the weather pattern since the beginning of the year and Argentina has seen more rains, the precipitation was heterogeneous and insufficient to recover the soil profiles. The heat shocks, with temperatures above 40°C, also have not helped the situatio...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Selloff Continues; Soybeans Try to Stabilize; Cattle on Feed Report Supportive
The CBOT continued its selloff on Friday and wheat and corn futures plunged lower in heavy volume trade. The catalyst for corn’s selloff was, of course, the USDA’s bearish Ag Outlook Forum balance sheet numbers, but wheat was seemingly pressured primarily by technical and short sell...
Market Commentary: Delayed Reaction
USDA issued its outlook for 2023 major crops before the market opened this morning but the reaction to it was slow to develop. Perhaps initially because it didn’t really contain any surprises, and it mostly impacts the long-deferred contracts. Prices have been sky-high, and farmers are go...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Sends CBOT Lower
Except for cattle and soyoil futures the major CBOT/CME ag markets turned red on Wednesday with a combination of surprise weather, technical selling, and a stronger U.S. dollar pressuring markets. The U.S. dollar ticked 36 bps higher on Wednesday, which helped pressure wheat futures along with...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex, Corn Rallies on Argy Frosts; Hogs Explode Higher; Wheat Falls on Technical Trade
The CBOT saw strong, active trade to start the holiday-shortened trading week with the soy complex leading the way higher after frosts developed in Argentina. The cold weather was not what the country’s producers wanted to see and cast even more doubts on this year’s crop. The frost...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Worsen; CBOT Chops Sideways into Weekend
The CBOT posted a day of two-sided trade on Friday to end a week of choppy, two-sided trade. With the three-day weekend coming up, few traders were interested in extending positions or adding risk to portfolios, which limited trading volume and price action. Additionally, there was little fresh...
Market Commentary: Exhausting the Angst
Markets trade on fundamentals and right now is the equivalent of being an ebb tide. It is a shift from angst over supply-reducing weather in South America to the bearish awe of watching its production come to market. What happens during the ebb tide is very low volume, the sole exception today...
Market Commentary: Dollar Rallies on Retail Sales Numbers, Pressures CBOT Trade
The CBOT turned lower again at mid-week with an unexpectedly strong retail sales report sparking a rally in the U.S. dollar. That, in turn, pressured CBOT commodities, which (except for soybeans) have already been struggling on the export market. Wheat futures led the way lower on the currency...
Market Commentary: Bullish Start for the Week
The CBOT largely continued Friday’s Russia-induced rally with help from another weekend of terrible weather for crops in Argentina. Soybeans and soymeal started out strong Sunday night and pushed higher with corn and wheat in tow. That dynamic changed through the day session, however, as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Many early-crop corn fields have been heavily impacted by drought and yields will be very low. Other fields have been burned or chopped early for animal feed, as farmers took advantage of the low-yielding crop to bolster scarce forage supplies. The second-crop corn is holding up bett...
Market Commentary: Post-WASDE Drip
There was higher volume trading corn, soybeans, and soymeal, but resulting in just a half penny change in soybeans. There was low volume trading in February live cattle and that was just to square up positions in this soon to be expiring contract. All of the deferred contracts went the opposite...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA projects lower soybean crush and higher ending stocks. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.30 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month. The soybean...
WASDE Corn
USDA projected lower U.S. corn use for ethanol and larger ending stocks. U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, wit...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made minor revisions to domestic wheat use and ending stocks. Wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million tons with offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 1 million bushels to 568 million and the 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.1...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading, Commercial Buying; WASDE Cuts World Corn, Soybean Stocks
The CBOT was mostly waiting for the WASDE report early on Wednesday with the major ag markets seeing little directional influence. The exception was the wheat market, which saw bull spreading develop from the opening bell that carried futures above major technical targets. Not even a mostly neu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates in pre-WASDE Trade; WPI Issues 2023/24 Grain Forecasts
The CBOT was mixed in mostly consolidative trade on Tuesday heading into the February WASDE. The market saw some quiet weakness in corn and CBOT wheat while HRW futures strengthened. The soy complex saw a mix of delivering product values with soyoil rallying sharply with support from palm oil a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Hit New Highs; Hogs Fall Sharply
The CBOT saw mostly consolidative trade to start the week just two days ahead of the February WASDE report. KCBT wheat futures attempted to rally but were turned back and posted slight gains amid mild commercial buying. Soybeans and soymeal were lower in mostly consolidative trade while soyoil...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn During January, most of Argentina’s agricultural region received an average of 100 mm of rain, which helped to partly reverse several months of extreme drought. This gave a second life to late planted corn, which was planted late to avoid pollinating/kernel filling during late Decemb...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Collapses on Weaker Crude; New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ended the week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans grinding lower while corn saw mild strength. The big movers for the day were soymeal, which scored new contract highs not once but twice, and soyoil, which plunged lower amid a crude oil selloff. There was a strong sense of p...
Market Commentary: Groundhog Sympathy
Punxsutawney Phil reportedly saw his shadow today at Gobbler’s Knob and there will supposedly be six more weeks of winter, though he is like a grain analyst and has been wrong as often as he’s been right. The markets were unmoved by this annual stunt and mostly traded its now famili...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Firm; Soy Complex, Energy Markets Fall; Fed Decision Boosts Late-Date Trade
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with pronounced weakness in energy markets and technical/fund selling driving the soy complex sharply lower. Corn futures dipped lower in early trade but found a late-day surge after the Fed’s interest rate decision. Wheat futures were mixed with KCBT...
Market Commentary: Technicals Dominate on Light Fundamentals
Ag futures saw another day of mixed trade with CBOT wheat taking a surprising lead and posting a technically bullish day while corn futures sank lower after hitting technical resistance. Soybeans saw strong bull spreading that led to rumors of possible export sales activity while soymeal drifte...
Parsing the Data
Brazil’s meat processors are expressing angst that their country’s boosted corn exports to China this year will drive up domestic feed costs to what they describe as an “overpriced” level. The number of Chinese bidders for imported corn is large as the Middle Kingdom&rsq...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, Live Cattle Post New Contract Highs; Grains End Firmer
The CBOT was stronger to start the day with corn and wheat finding mild, continued strength from last week’s rallies. The winterkill threats to the HRW crop mean that KCBT wheat is the upside leader in wheat futures with funds slowly shifting to the long side of the market. Corn ticked hi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains that have fallen so far in 2023 indicate a possible change in the South American weather pattern. They have been good in terms of quantity and regularity and have been covering practically the entire agricultural area. In addition, forecasts continue to be favorable for the next week...
Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts
The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, with several markets forming or hinting at trend reversals. For the day, corn futures showed some strength early but ended flat while the soy...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further
Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and short-covering. The soy complex attempted the same but could not hold gains as showers fell across Argentina again and are forecast to contin...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Create CBOT Selling Flood
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but this week it’s falling on Argentina and causing a flood of CBOT sell orders. Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all came under heavy selling pressure to start the week as funds liquidated fresh longs that quickly became underwater. The odd th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat continues to be scarce in general across Latin America, but especially in Argentina. It is strange to see Argentina’s export volumes practically equal to those of Brazil. It is even possible that the cumulative December/January total may see Brazil exporting more wheat than Ar...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Lower on Technical Follow-Through; KC Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note with wheat futures strengthening amid commercial buying and bull spreading while soymeal futures traded sharply lower following Wednesday’s key reversal. Corn was caught somewhat in the middle and settled fractionally lower for the day with more lat...
Market Commentary: Risk Off
This was not so much a day of trade based on commitment but on ambivalence. Volume was modest at best, except in Feeder Cattle. Corn, soybeans, and wheat traded both sides of nowhere, influenced in part by Wall Street concerns about a recession, and the forecast for rain in Argentina. Apparentl...
Market Commentary: Rains in Argentina’s Forecast Pressure CBOT
The CBOT started the day on a strong note and tried to capitalize on Tuesday’s strength but faltered and ended lower after updated weather models showed meaningful rains for Argentina and southern Brazil in the next two weeks. This week remains relatively dry, but the EU and GFS models sh...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off Early Weakness to Post a Bullish Day
The CBOT started Tuesday with bearish pressure that impacted corn, soybeans, and wheat alike. The day’s trade didn’t end there, however, and the major grain markets settled higher to start the week. Traders initially reacted to the forecasts for a winter storm across the Southern Pl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends WASDE Week on Quiet Strength; All Eyes on Argentine Weather
The CBOT saw somewhat volatile trade following the January WASDE but strength was noted in soybeans, corn, and KCBT wheat. The futures market did not post any particularly large rallies on Friday, indicating Thursday’s trade was mostly sufficient to “price in” the new informat...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA reduced U.S. corn production to 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, an...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
Market Commentary: Surprise Information Bonanza!
USDA unloaded a gigabyte of data today and a bunch of it was not as expected. The pre-report temperature was bearish. Corn, winter wheats, and livestock were trading down from the open and soybeans went from a double-digit gain to barely hanging on to a single digit increase ahead of the releas...
Market Commentary: CBOT Steady/Higher Ahead of WASDE; Hog Selloff Intensifies
Wednesday’s CBOT trade was almost entirely focused on positioning for the January WASDE that will be released at noon Thursday. For corn and soybeans, that meant cautiously higher trade with the markets following through on Tuesday’s late-day rallies. The soybean rally came despite...
Market Commentary: Volatile Trade for Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Falls on European Weakness
Trading at the CBOT was active on Tuesday with most major markets scoring wide ranges but ending well away from the day’s extremes. Wheat futures plunged lower amid weakness from the European markets but pared losses heading into the close while corn and soybeans backed away from their da...
Market Commentary: Grains Lower in pre-WASDE Trade; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with funds remaining in a defensive mood heading into the January WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. The USDA will release both reports at noon on Thursday and the report(s) certainly have good potential to be major market movers. Much of the focus will...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina has ended with an estimated production of 11.5-12.5 MMT. This is no surprise to the market and compares with a 22 MMT crop from last season. The overall quality has been good, with high test weigh and gluten content, which is good news for local millers who...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Fuel Soy Rally; Livestock Markets Move Lower
The CBOT was mixed to end a week that featured mostly bearishness with a surprise decline in Argentina’s soybean crop ratings sparking a rally in soybeans and soymeal. Corn futures traded both sides of unchanged and only posted 1-cent gains for the day, but signs of strength were evident...
Market Commentary: Mixed and Confused
Today was another mixed but generally bearish trading day in the New Year. Nothing has changed from the fundamentals of December when values generally moved higher, except maybe new doubts about the general direction. December’s highs are now on the defensive. The only thing holding up th...
Market Commentary: Recession Forecasts, Fund Selling Sink Ag Futures
Except for cattle futures, the CBOT and CME ag markets were all lower on Wednesday as bearishness remains the prevailing sentiment. Commodity markets received a widespread blow on Wednesday after reports surfaced that many financial analysts expect a recession in the U.S. and the world in 2023...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sags to Start New Year; Late-2022 Rallies Fade
The CBOT and CME markets were almost unanimously lower to start 2023 with demand – either from exports or domestic consumption – being a primary factor for the day’s declines. Last week saw strong rallies in several markets, including corn and the livestock contracts, but thos...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Market Commentary: Wheat Futures Ignore Winter Storm; Soy Complex Rallies Again
The CBOT is starting to show its typical pre-holiday quieting of trade and volatility but is not without a few surprises. The soy complex was the upside leader on Tuesday with another rally in soyoil creating strength across the complex. That spilled over into 15-17-cent gains for soybeans, whi...
Market Commentary: Argy Rains Pressure CBOT; Soymeal Breaks Support; Storm System Threatens U.S. Wheat
The CBOT was mostly lower in early week trade with traders still exiting positions ahead of the next two weeks’ holidays. Fundamental news was light, and the market was primarily focused on the bearish factors of rains in Argentina and the slow U.S. export pace. Funds were net sellers for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine harvest keeps moving at a good pace and the national average yield is increasing as combines enter areas in the center and south of Buenos Aires. The national average increased from 1.88 MT/ha to 1.96 MT/ha last week. The weekly progress was 11 percent and total harvested re...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises While Grains Fall in Choppy Trade; Hogs Post $4 Rally
The CBOT was relatively calm on Friday despite the ongoing meltdown in macroeconomic markets. Corn traded both sides of unchanged before ending fractionally lower while wheat futures pushed lower in “give up” selling after the markets failed to do much this week. The soy complex was...
Market Commentary: Macro Slam
Last half December is generally quiet and rangebound in the markets as the B Team is instructed to ride out the holidays in a caution mode. Except for the higher volume today in SRW on fears of an Arctic vortex, volume in corn and the soy complex was down by a third. That makes the market...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rise on Bull Spreading; Corn, Wheat Drift Lower in Light Volume
The CBOT traded a quiet day at mid-week with corn and wheat pushing lower and bull spreading developing in soybeans and soymeal. The soy complex remains the hot market for now with soymeal holding just below recent contract highs and commercials still buying, as evidenced by the spread trade. C...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Surges Again; Lower U.S. Dollar Sends Wheat, Corn to Early Gains
The major feature of the CBOT on Tuesday was the rally in all legs of the soy crush. Soybeans, soyoil, and to a lesser extent, soymeal, all posted strong gains for the day as U.S. demand comes into greater focus amid the plight of the Argentine crop. The ongoing drought in Argentina is promptin...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Flips Recent Trends; Corn, Wheat Rally After Russia Attacks Odessa Port
The CBOT essentially abandoned its existing trends on Monday and volatility was pronounced, especially in the soy complex. For the past few weeks, soybeans and soymeal have been trending higher while soyoil collapsed under the EPA’s new biofuel mandates. That changed almost without warnin...
Latin American Political Stability
Political instability should be a threat to food security, though that does not appear to be the case in Latin America. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization categorizes Venezuela as very politically unstable, yet its per capita food supply is listed as relatively high, at least as reported...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Dry weather and a sweltering heat wave allowed for a rapid advance of the wheat harvest and an even earlier harvest date in the southern part of the agricultural area. Farmers harvested an additional 19 percent of the area last week, putting the total harvest at 42 percent completion.&nbs...
WASDE Soybeans
Domestics U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month. USDA explained that due to their review of EPA's recent proposed rule for renewable fuel targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022/23 is reduced 200 million pounds to 11.6 billion. Soyb...
WASDE Corn
U.S. domestic corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels due to slow sales. As a result, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.70 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Foreign cor...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production. ...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Exports; Argy Wheat Crop Falls to 12.5 MMT; Cattle Take Back Early Losses
The December WASDE made few changes to its outlook for the world grain supply and demand situation, which left the CBOT to essentially continue its existing trends. Wheat futures sold off 10-12 cents lower and soyoil joined the weakness and broke a major technical support zone. Soymeal continue...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Tails
Wheat and corn continue to trade on one edge of the distribution while soybeans and soymeal chase the other side. The continuing trend is for declines in the value of corn and wheat, while soybeans push higher. Thus far this week, January soybeans have gained 47.75 cents (3.3 percent), while co...
Market Commentary: The Dead Cat Bounces Again in Wheat; Soymeal Hits Fresh Highs on Argy Weather
The CBOT seemed to start looking ahead to Friday’s December WASDE from the USDA at mid-week, which created a temporary, at least, pause in the selling spree. After a near-constant selloff over the past three weeks, wheat futures bounced unconvincingly higher on short-covering and profit t...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Highs New Highs; Cattle, Hogs Plunge Lower; Weakness in Corn, Wheat Continues
Soymeal was the upside leader (and one of the few markets to finish higher) on Tuesday as a combination of tight spot supplies and strong feed demand bolster physical prices. Soymeal futures surged to new contract highs on heavy volume, which helped pull the soybean market into the green as wel...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest reached almost 25 percent of the area last week. Harvesting in the north of the country is considered finished and yields are 30 percent below historical levels. Meanwhile, the harvest is progressing in central and northern Cordoba and Santa Fe with very he...
Market Commentary: RVOs Sink Soyoil; Funds Hasten Corn, Wheat Selling; Farm Income Rises
The impacts and implications of the EPA’s newest renewable fuel obligations continue to ripple through the CBOT markets. Soyoil futures sold off sharply again on Friday while the soybean market managed to squeeze out a small gain for the day. While the EPA mandates were essentially neutra...
Market Commentary: More Braking
Traders continue to step on the brakes but have not yet broken any lines of support but are getting close. Soyoil dragged the complex lower as it hit the daily trading limit, but things could reverse tomorrow. After the close, USDA issued its October Oilseed Crushing report and it was bullish...
Market Commentary: Argentina Creates New “Soy Dollar”; CBOT Soy Complex Rallies; Hog Selloff Intensifies
The CBOT started the day on a weak note with the protests in China and the government’s resulting crackdown creating widespread pressure on financial and commodity markets. The protests and the government’s response created worries about the Middle Kingdom’s demand for a myria...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Brazil Finally, the first vessel loaded with Brazil corn and destined for China will leave the port of Santos this week. The vessel Mv Star Iris is set to load 68,000 MT of corn for COFCO. Many expected Brazil to start shipping corn in 2023, but others expected it to occur in December 2022...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Pre-Holiday Trade; AMLO Softens Stance on GMOs
The CBOT was mostly higher in quiet, pre-holiday trade and the theme of the day was position liquidation and risk-off heading into what is practically a four-day weekend. Corn and soybeans found fundamental strength from higher ethanol output and export sales to China, respectively. That helped...
Market Commentary: Wheat Spreads Show Diverging Trends; Cold Storage Bullish Livestock Futures
The CBOT was mostly lower in quiet, pre-holiday trade with traders liquidating positions ahead of the coming Thanksgiving vacation day. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all moved lower amid mild profit taking and fund selling, despite a pullback in the U.S. dollar that offered a modest boost to U.S. e...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Cattle Rally on Bullish Data; Grains Sink Lower in Bear Spreading
Corn and wheat futures were on the defensive again to start the week amid fund selling and liquidation trade. Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, funds are increasingly bearish wheat and are pricing that view into the market. Corn futures remain pressured by the dismal export performance so far...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There were no major developments in the wheat markets last week. Production estimates remain unchanged from what WPI has reported over the past month. Argentina’s export surplus is still forecast at 6.5 MMT, but that volume could be cut further. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.” The missile that hit Poland turned out to possibly be an errant output of Ukrainian air defense. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Serg...
Market Commentary: Risk Off but Not Done
Corn and the soy complex shed value today, but wheat was bolstered mostly by poor crop prospects. Perhaps indicative was the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, which was released today instead of Friday due to the holiday. It showed speculators have increased their net short position in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The grain exchanges issued new estimates for new crop wheat production with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange more optimistic at 12.4 MMT, and the Rosario Grain Exchange down at 11.8 MMT. In general, the market appears to be trading based on a 12 MMT crop, with some bears much lower than th...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil price is also unchanged at 69 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is f...
WASDE Corn
USDA forecast U.S. corn production at 13.930 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month on a 0.4-bushel increase in yield to 172.3 bushels per acre. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by prod...
WASDE Wheat
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 775 million bushels - with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchang...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Few Surprises; Wheat Lower as Fund Sells; Cattle Rally Stalled
The November WASDE was largely in-line with expectations and USDA indeed raised the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean yields. Despite the larger crops, carry-out remains tight for both commodities and should be long-term supportive. Soybeans rallied for the day, as much because of news of 462 KMT of e...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Finally, the government announced that export declarations made by exporters for shipments from December to February may be extended for 12 months with no penalty. Export declarations are made for a specific shipping period within which they must shipped to avoid penalties. In this case t...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies with Energy Markets; Corn, Wheat Firm in Late-Week Trade
The CBOT ended the week with gains across the board as stronger energy and palm oil markets supported sharp rallies in soyoil and soybeans. The soy complex has been the surprising leader of the CBOT during a week that, at its outset, looked like it would feature major rallies in wheat and corn...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Strong U.S.Dollar, Weak Macroeconomic Markets
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as the impacts of Russia’s return to the Ukraine export corridor agreement and the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar worked against futures. Corn and wheat continued their selloffs and retreated to values near where they ended last week, while soybeans s...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Lead CBOT Rally on China Policy, Brazil Protests
The CBOT rallied for a second straight day, but this time it was soybeans leading the way. The oilseed market moved higher after rumors surfaced that China could be considering ending its zero-tolerance policy for COVID-19, a move that would boost food, fuel, and soybean demand in the country...
Brazil’s Election Results and Where Ag Trade Policy May Go
Election fever is at high pitch in the U.S. with the Congressional mid-terms just one week from tomorrow. At stake is a likely change in party control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. This comes as the farm bill will be on the docket in 2023. But in Brazil, the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week's rains were good and abundant in some regions but scarce and too late for the wheat crop in others. In the central and northern part of the country, the wheat crop is coming to its end and the rains will not have much effect. In the southern part, the crop still has a long way...
Brazilian Election Bullish
Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro promised continued land development whereas his challenger and the ultimate winner, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, promised to crack down on illegal deforestation. This does not mean agricultural area expansion stops, but it might slow down.&nb...
Market Commentary: Grains Sag on Export Troubles; Markets Focusing on Macroeconomics
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note as the U.S. harvest wraps up and logistics/export challenges remain along the Mississippi River. The U.S. corn and soybean harvests should be 75 and 85 percent finished, respectively, in Monday’s USDA report, minimizing any lingering weather/yield r...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies with Energy Markets; Wheat Firms Amid Choppy Corn/Soy Trade
The CBOT was mixed in moderate trading volume at mid-week with the weeks-old themes of harvest pressure and export issues at the forefront of traders’ minds. Soybeans initially found strength on a strong rally in soyoil, but eventually pared gains as few want to be long amid a slow export...
Market Commentary: Not Pretty
Though they closed higher, volume was down in corn and soybeans and wheat shaved off some more excess value. The truth is there is just not much to move the market right now. The lower value of the dollar plus rising equities and oil provides some outside support but the fundamentals are stable...
Nicaragua Trade Impacts
On Monday, President Biden signed an Executive Order (E.O.) that amends E.O. 13851 (Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Nicaragua). The goal is to “limit the outsized financial benefits of certain trade from flowing to the Ortega-Murillo regime, as warran...
Market Commentary: Grains Sag Despite 2 MMT of Soy Exports; Cattle Rally on COF Implications
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with corn and wheat consolidating after a lackluster export report. Soybeans and soymeal sold off sharply as concerns rise about China’s demand for U.S. soybeans after Chinese President Xi secured a third consecutive term. Moreover, Xi’s a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather The weather was the primary focus for South America’s grain and oilseed markets last week. Argentina’s wheat yields continue to be negatively affected by the ongoing drought, and the summer crop outlook is dimming for the same reason. Different agencies are already estimatin...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower Despite Ethanol Production Jump; Livestock Futures Extend Rally
The CBOT was mostly lower in low volume trade at mid-week with futures largely consolidating within their recent ranges. The exceptions were soyoil and the livestock contracts, both of which rallied sharply for another day. Soyoil found its support from a rally in crude oil while persistent str...
Market Commentary: Livestock Rallies Continue; Grains End Lower on Fund Selling
The CBOT pulled back again on Tuesday with only soyoil and the livestock contracts finding their way to higher ground. Funds continued to liquidate their net long positions in corn and soybeans while extending a short SRW wheat position. Fundamental news that hit the wires Tuesday seemed to all...
Market Commentary: Grains Mixed to Start Week; Livestock Markets Rally Sharply
The CBOT ended mixed in low volume to start the week. The only market to see substantial action was soyoil as a bullish NOPA report and Russian attacks on Ukrainian sunflower oil storage facilities created some buying interest. Wheat and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in quiet volume w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week, the Argentine government, exporters, and wheat millers met to discuss the wheat supply and demand situation. The meeting was only the first of what is expected to be a series of meetings to analyze the wheat situation and the tight supply and demand relationship. No policy meas...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends on Down Note After Export Sales Disappoint
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with corn, soybeans, wheat, and both cattle contracts all posting losses by the closing bell. The only real gainer was the lean hog market, where futures rallied to triple-digit gains on relative strength in the cash market. Trading volume was light acr...
Market Commentary: Makeup Call
What could go right? The stock market and commodity futures both started the trading day glumly observing certain fundamentals: U.S. core inflation in September at 6.6 percent had hit a four-decade high; CPI was at 8.2 percent. It is now sealed that next month the Fed will add another growth s...
Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts Corn, Soy Yields; Wheat Falls on 15-Year Low Stocks Forecast
The October WASDE typically creates volatility in CBOT futures and this year’s reaction to the report was no different. The surprise of the day was lower-than-expected soybean ending stocks, which sent soybean futures rallying back to the $14.00 level. Corn initially saw stiff selling pre...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. soybean production to 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. Due to lower exports offseting by increased crush, ending sto...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. corn production to 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. wheat production based by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million. However, first quarter total disappearance is the lowest since 1983/84 - wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat prices in the local market continue to rise. The fear of drought and a tight supply/demand balance are causing daily increases. Since the beginning of September, prices have risen about $70/MT in the futures market. Rains that fell last week, although always helpful, were insufficie...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Freeze Risks; Miss. River Issues Persist
The CBOT was mostly higher in quiet trade to end the week. Corn and soybean futures moved higher in some technical buying and short-covering due to the expected frost/freeze across the northern and western Corn Belt this weekend. Wheat futures tried to follow corn higher but pared gains heading...
Market Commentary: Lower Follow Through
The market chased the overnight lower closes and accelerated them as the trading day wore on. Exceptions were soyoil and pork, with the latter seeing robust demand both foreign and domestic. There were the usual contenders for bearishness, including the weather, the strong dollar, and harvest i...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm After Two-Sided Trade; Soymeal Breaks Key Support
The CBOT was mixed in quiet, two-sided trade at mid-week. Corn and wheat futures managed to post slight gains after trading both in the green and red while soybeans sank 13 cents lower amid profit taking and some position liquidation. Farm sales of the new corn and soybean crops remains light,...
Macro Market Rally Buoys Corn, Soybeans; Profit Taking Pressures Wheat; Hog Selloff Continues
Once again, macroeconomic markets drove the CBOT’s primary price action, only this time the influence from outside markets was bullish. Overnight, palm oil and energy markets move higher and stock futures pointed to sharp gains, which helped push the CBOT ag markets higher. The day sessio...
Watching Brazil’s Elections
The U.S. mid-term Congressional election is five weeks away; one election that much of agriculture is watching is Brazil’s Presidential race. In the first round of voting – among 11 total candidates – former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) garnered 48.43 percent of...
Market Commentary: CBOT Stabilizes to Start Week; River Draft and Barge Rates Drive Export Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a mixed note with markets attempting to recover from the Grain Stocks report on Friday. Soybeans and the soy complex attempted to form a bottom and move higher and appear to have been somewhat successful in that effort, but only time will tell whether the reversal w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as other exchanges and analysts have done, lowered its wheat crop estimate to 17.5 MMT versus 20.5 MMT in its previous forecast. The reason, of course, is the severe drought causing serious problems for crop development and currently limiting grain filling...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn, Bearish Soybeans; Wheat Rallies on USDA Production Cuts
The CBOT showed the volatility often characteristic of days when the Grain Stocks report is released. The report was bullish corn and wheat and bearish soybeans, and the futures market’s reaction reflected the surprises. Soybeans dropped sharply lower for the day in a massively bearish mo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Macroeconomic Weakness Again; GBP/USD Hits Record Low
The CBOT sold off once again amid pronounced pressure from outside macroeconomic markets. Last week’s Fed interest rate hike – the fastest since the 1970’s – combined with Britian’s new economic policy and the election results in Italy sent macro traders into a sel...
South America’s Fertilizer Situation
Rabobank reports that fertilizer supplies will improve in 2023 with downward pressure on phosphate and potash prices, but nitrogen may see a 20-30 percent price hike. This is an important competitiveness factor for agricultural exporters. North and South America both have abundant supplies of p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The rains that fell across Argentina last week covered a good part of the wheat-growing area, but the accumulated water was very little so soil moistures and the crop conditions continue to worsen. Only 14 percent of the wheat crop was rated good/excellent at the end of last week, down fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Sharply on Macro-Market “Risk Off” Trade and USD Rally
Friday’s trade was less about grain market fundamentals than it was “risk off” trade from a meltdown in financial and energy markets. The U.S. dollar rose 160 bps for the day, which pressured grain futures from an export competitiveness standpoint and corn, wheat, and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Involuntary Movement
When markets reach equilibrium with little new demonstrative information, you get days like today. The trades move up slightly or down a little and look like both sides of nothing. In the old days, this is when pit traders were able to read their latest dense copy of The Economist magazine.&nbs...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 15 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets were mixed this week with Capes rising while Supramax vessel rates declined yet again. The Capesize sector found support from China’s recent efforts to stockpile coal and iron ore, but this support has not yet t...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle and Beef Imports
High cattle and beef prices are supporting imports. First, cattle imports through July are up 22.6 percent compared to last year. Imports from Canada are up 18.1 percent and imports from Mexico have increased 25.2 percent over the same period. This trend of increased imports certai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Cattle and Beef Markets and Brazil’s Cattle
This past week’s slaughter at 593,000 was down 7,000 head from the previous week and down 22,000 from last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in d...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-covering and buying pulled the latter two markets higher. Soybeans scored double-digit gains for the day while the corn market could only mana...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led to low activity for the week. Origination and FOB markets were quiet for both corn and wheat. Presently, with a weekly progress of almost 2...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short profit taking that helped the soy complex, while corn and wheat continued to drift lower amid weak technicals and bearish fundamental sentime...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a big U.S. crop. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report was released after the market close, but the crop conditions were already viewed as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario Grain Exchange is slightly more optimistic, estimating an area of 6.9 Mha, and a production of 21 MMT. The market, in general, is taking a m...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Weather, Modest Volume Sees Mostly Red
Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, corn and soybeans took deeper dives. Volumes were modest to lower, except in cattle futures. Despite expectations that the current hotter, drie...
Market Commentary: Some Higher Closes on Sideways Trade
Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July corn is up 9.75 cents (2.1 percent), July soybeans are 10.25 cents higher (0.8 percent), and July SRW is down 7.5 cents (-1.1 percent). ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course, Corn and Soy Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. That meant corn and soybeans saw more selling pressure as expectations call for larger U.S. crops and ending stocks for the coming year. Wheat,...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Accelerates; Corn, Soy Stabilized Before WASDE; Cattle and Hogs Diverge
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive selloff in wheat continued with funds eagerly selling into the weakness. One feature of the day’s trade was the Goldman roll, which h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration. Exporters must ship a minimum of 26 MMT by January 2025. Between June, July, and August alone, DJVEs account for 8.7 MMT, with an addition...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off a New Floor
Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For corn and soybeans, today broke a seven consecutive session losing streak, and HRW ended a six-session losing streak. Some in the trade...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong planting progress last week. Wheat futures tried to rally in early trade, but the corn and soy complex weakness pulled that market lower with add...
No Mimosas
Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encouraging producers to change their minds about planting intentions. An increase in area is certain; in fact, the top market seed varieties are al...
Market Commentary: Markets Enter May like a Lion, Leave as a Lamb
Usually, it’s the month of March that comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, but commodity markets chose to follow that pattern in May, which creates an interesting summer outlook. With Friday’s trade concluding the month of May, it’s notable that the major ag markets al...
Market Commentary: Pigs Fly, the Rest Swim
The market open is very telltale about the trade’s beliefs. It can open hard and fast in one direction or another, or it can move in small increments back and forth, reflecting less certainty about the direction. The latter was the case this morning involving corn and soybeans. By contras...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies an 8 percent delay compared to the five-year average. The progress is slowed as combines are still fully engaged in harvesting soybeans and...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...
Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop
The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Currently, Argentine farmers have harvested 22 percent of the corn area, with a weekly progress of only 2.3 percent. While soybean harvesting takes precedence and progresses much faster, farmers are only now able to enter some fields after the rains of the past few weeks. The Buenos Aires...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the fields. Moreover, the focus of those who can enter fields remains on soybeans, which are typically harvested as soon as possible and take p...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week without rain, Argentina’s corn harvest gained momentum and reached nearly 6 percent of the area. This had the consequent effect of increasing truck arrivals at ports, which was a relief for exporters who face a vessel lineup of 1.8 MMT of corn. Argentina has already expo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024
The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Brazil’s Meat Opportunity
Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s early corn harvest has begun in various regions of the country with good yields, although it's too early to draw conclusions as the harvested area has only reached 2 percent of the total area. While one should expect the harvest to pick up speed in the coming days, the fo...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise
The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...
Market Commentary: Higher CBOT and Corn Reversal Deny Long-Run Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned mostly higher to start the week amid some bullish fundamental developments and funds covering shorts after the market’s recent and wildly profitable plunge lower. Corn was the upside leader with the May contract posting a bullish key reversal on the chart as export inspect...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying
The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It is expected that extreme temperatures recorded in Argentina over the past fifteen days may reduce the corn crop’s yield potential, primarily in late-maturing corn (to be evaluated in the coming weeks). Currently, 53 percent of that crop is going through its critical period for yie...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Contract Lows; CBOT Relegated to Sideways/Lower Trade
Post-WASDE trade saw the CBOT markets largely continue their former trends with the February report – as usual – offering only minor adjustments to the supply and demand picture. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was the fall to new contract lows in corn futures as shorts continue...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Market Commentary: Bears Pile into Corn Ahead of WASDE; Other Markets Pause Before Report
Typically, trading the day before a major USDA report – including the WASDE – is muted and that statement held true for all but one commodity on Wednesday. The exception to the rule was corn where the market dropped to fresh contract lows in moderately heavy volume with bearish sent...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink, Soy Complex Rallies to Start Week; USD Rally Threatens Exports
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with the soy complex posting a bullish turnaround on stronger-than-expected export inspections and rising soymeal demand. Wheat futures drifted lower and maintained their sideways ranges with pressure from the Matif market helping pull prices into the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Like every other low-production year, the dynamics of Argentina’s FOB market are greatly reduced. On the one hand, there are fewer destinations where Argentina can compete and, on the other, there is less positioning by trading houses. In the current wheat campaign (December and Jan...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Meat Up Over Corn and Beans
Markets opened like the overnight, all flashing red except for cattle. Then at mid-morning wheat started flashing green. SRW, HRS and cattle hung on to close higher, while corn and the soy complex proved that Tuesday’s gains were just a dead cat bounce in an otherwise ongoing trend lower...
Market Commentary: Grains Turnaround Fizzles; Soymeal Surges on Domestic Demand
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday as the grain markets (corn and wheat) failed to follow through on Tuesday’s reversal and instead either sank lower or ended essentially unchanged while the soy complex continued Tuesday’s show of strength. Soymeal was the upside leader in the so...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday – Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal?
The CBOT posted a decisive Turnaround Tuesday with the soy complex, corn, and wheat all turning sharply higher and scoring bullish days on the charts. The odd thing was that the day’s rally came without clear fundamental justification, with the only really bullish story being Argentina&rs...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The quality issues (low test weight) in Argentina’s wheat that WPI has noted in recent weeks now seems to be quite localized in the Southwest of Buenos Aires province, near the port of Bahia Blanca. Nevertheless, there doesn't seem to be a current need for exporters to go out and se...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Bull Wheat, Bear Beans; Corn Takes a Break
There was notably higher volume trading soybeans, soyoil, HRW, and beef today. Each driven by different factors; all appeared to be driven more by fundamentals than stochastic parrots. Export sales were generally lower than the prior week, except for soyoil, but were higher than th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher, Creates Cautious Buying Cascade
The CBOT was mostly lower overnight with grain markets unable to find their footing after two bearish weeks and a weekend of favorable weather for Brazil and Argentina. The day session offered a bit of relief for bulls, however, with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil finding their way to higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2022/23 Crop Export Update The historic drought that impacted Argentina one year ago resulted in a drastic 38 percent decline in grain production during the 2022/23 season, reaching only 83.4 MMT, the lowest figure since 2008/09. This decline had a significant impact on agro-industrial shipment...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce
After hitting new contract lows in corn and wheat again today, there was a turnaround led by wheat. However, without any change in the underlying fundamentals, it is difficult to call it new support. Since last Friday’s January WASDE report, March corn is down 13.75 cents, March soybeans...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Corn, Wheat; Cattle & Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with traders still reacting to the bearish implications of the January WASDE. For bulls, matters seem to keep getting worse as competion from South America continues to rise. Brazilian FOB offers for soybeans are plunging lower while the Rosario Grain Excha...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Drifting Lower into Planting Season?
The January WASDE and Grains Stocks reports are now past, but their impacts continued to drive CBOT price action to start the holiday-shortened week. Corn and wheat saw significant pressure from the WASDE’s bearish implications while soybeans saw two-sided trade under the bullish influenc...
Transatlantic Commonality; Argentina’s NTB’s
Transatlantic Commonality Politico’s senior foreign correspondent Nahal Toosi noted that ambassadors in Washington are warning that U.S. power and influence in the world is declining due to the nation’s intense partisan political divide. But it is not exactly glory days in Europe. F...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Shipping, Export Concerns Push CBOT Lower; WASDE Expectations and Forecasts
The CBOT turned lower with just two days before the January WASDE and Grain Stocks report after export prospects dimed following more terrorist attacks in the Red Sea. U.S. and British naval forces shot down 21 drones and missiles fired by Iranian-backed, Yemeni Houthi rebels on Tuesday in what...
Market Commentary: Grains Post Turnaround Tuesday; Lean Hog Technical Rally Continues
The CBOT posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with grain and oilseed markets finding their way to higher ground after two weeks of steadily lower trade. There was little fundamental reason for the day’s strength and most of the buying activity was short covering and position adjustin...
Market Commentary: No Rest for the Bullish
The CBOT followed its bearish drumbeat lower with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal all logging steep declines for the day. Corn and Paris wheat futures scored a new contract low while soybeans drifted to their lowest level since June. Of course, the driver of the day’s weakness was more...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Export Sales, Brazil Rains; Hogs Battle Industry Inelasticity
The CBOT saw corn and soybeans break lower overnight and extend that weakness in the day session with poor export sales data and favorable South American rains offering ample pressure. Corn futures scored a new contract low and are barley above three-year lows right now while the soybean market...
Brazil Politics and Generic Pesticides
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed into law a new pesticide registration statute that will benefit the approval of generic pesticides. The new law grants greater discretionary authority to the Ag Ministry in approving and overseeing pesticides. President Lula did u...
Market Commentary: And the Downward Beat Goes On
There was higher volume in SRW, HRW and lean hogs but overall volumes remained modest, and the export wire is quiet. The latter perhaps influenced by a strong dollar. This leaves ample room for bearish weather news to ricochet around the market. Thus far in this abbreviated first trading week o...
2023: A Look Back in Humor
Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction. Jan...
Market Commentary: Greenback Pressures Wheat; Crude Rally Lifts Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT saw pressure for the second straight day with a four-day rebound in the U.S. dollar working against grain values. While the rising greenback pressured all markets, wheat was the only major ag market to end lower as the stronger currency highlights the export threat from Russia. Corn an...
Market Commentary: 2024 Trending Bearish Grains, Optimistic for Cattle
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened trading week with an old fashion hard open on Tuesday morning with no overnight trade to guide initial investment. That meant markets were slammed by sell orders stemming from weekend rains in Brazil and forecasts for more over the coming weeks. Soybeans g...
Market Commentary: Wheat Escapes Doldrums; Corn, Soy Complex Drift Lower
Except for wheat, the CBOT and CME’s major ag markets were uniformly lower in a relatively unexciting trading session Thursday. Wheat managed to escape the mid-holiday doldrums after news broke that a civilian bulk cargo vessel hit a Russian sea mine in the western Black Sea. The obvious...
Market Commentary: Post Holiday Flush
Traders must have gotten some cash in their Christmas stockings because there was a slight buying mood in the market today. Except for bean oil and pork, most contracts turned higher today. The reopening of the southern border and exports late on Friday no doubt flushed out one bearish pressure...
Market Commentary: Slow Day but Notable Reports for Next Week
Trading volumes today were down 40-50 percent in some commodities, but the bottom line was some exiting and losses from the week before an extended holiday period. The story line no doubt is improved weather in Brazil and the U.S. Midwest, transportation hurdles, and stiff competition from both...
Oilseed Highlights: Improving Weather and Challenging Logistics
The Market Oilseed markets have seen more pressure than support this week due to improved weather forecasts for Brazil and increasingly challenging global export and transportation logistics. Through Thursday’s close, March CBOT soybeans are down 2.2 percent (29¾ cents) since...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Shipping, Export Concerns Mount; Corn Finds New Lows
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure building from increasingly challenging shipping logistics around the world. The situation in the Panama Canal is well known but recent escalations in Middle East tensions and re-routing of ships around the Red Sea are causing more h...
Market Commentary: KCBT Wheat Upside Leader in Mixed Day; Livestock Futures Fall Ahead of Reports
Conflicting supply and demand factors resulted in mixed trade at the CBOT once again, but the surprise of the day was KCBT wheat’s 2.2 percent rally – a move that outshone other ag market trade. As discussed later in this report, there was little clear evidence for the KC market&rsq...
Ag Exports Not the Panacea
According to the FAO agricultural trade index, Africa has experienced the relatively largest jump in the past decade, followed by North and South America. Yet the share of global GDP for both Africa and South America remains low. Despite the boom in agricultural exports where it is now dominati...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy Updates Argentina’s new government led by Javier Milei has begun and several new measures have been implemented. Despite being unpopular and restrictive, these measures promise to adjust the macroeconomic landscape over the coming months and eventually reduce inflation and free mar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies
Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week’s activity had already been completed. The soy complex was mixed as soybeans and soymeal were mostly lower while soyoil rallied on te...
Market Commentary: Fed Continues to Fuel Recovery
Today’s open followed last night’s close with corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher. The market subsequently dipped but only corn and soyoil failed to end the session in the green. Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement indicating a likely end to interest rate hikes and potentia...
Market Commentary: Policy Front and Center for Commodity Trade
Macroeconomic and commodity market policy factors were front and center for the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, following the devaluation of the Argentine peso and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Both policy decisions came in as expected with the Fed holding rates unchanged...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Market Commentary: Trend Reversals to Start the Week
The CBOT’s Monday trade saw two notable reversals from the recent week’s trends. The first was the strength in soybean futures, which erased all last week’s losses on Monday due to more hot, dry weather for central and northern Brazil. The second reversal was in wheat where fu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the same time, it was the week before the newly elected President took office on Sunday, and expectations of a dramatically different approach to...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the area. Most fields are being harvested 7-10 days earlier than usual, which is why at this point last year the harvest was only 20 percent comple...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Brazil’s Corn at Greater Risk than Soybeans
Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moisture and intense heat in major central and norther production areas. However, corn was more adversely impacted than soybeans in both of those p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of foreign currency that exporters can re-enter into the system through the free exchange market (financial dollar). Now, exporters can allocate 50...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as do Rains in Brazil; Livestock Futures Find Post-Holiday Selloff
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds complex while cash market weakness sent livestock futures tumbling. Trading volume was above-average for most markets compared to most post...
Market Commentary: CBOT Edges Lower in Risk-Off, Pre-Holiday Trade
CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading day on Friday. While the dynamics of futures exchange trading hours played a role in the day’s trade, the general lack of fresh news was...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Overcomes Weak Start to Post Big Gains; Wheat Finds New Lows
The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early losses, however, were fully erased by midday and both markets posted sharp gains due to China’s import program and the long-term outlo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and will assume his role on 10 December 2023. In his campaign, he promised to move the country’s economy to the U.S. dollar, eliminate expor...
Market Commentary: Wetter Brazil Forecast Sends Corn, Soy Lower; KC Wheat Hits 2-Year Low
Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacted the soybean first corn crops currently being planted, but also the planting prospects of the safrinha – or double-crop – corn...
Market Commentary: Good Exports but Brazilian Wildcard
The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late morning and while lean hogs wobbled, both were in the green at the close. Despite the downbeat of the past two sessions, corn and the s...
Market Commentary: Failed Turnaround Tuesday; Inflation Data Emboldens Markets
Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was not to be, however, as the soy complex found strong buying interest from ongoing soymeal demand and sharp gains in Malaysian palm oil that pu...
Market Commentary: China Buying and Soymeal Demand Sends Soy Complex, Corn Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds were active buyers in both markets with strong spot demand for soymeal driving that market’s rally while soybeans rallied on Chinese b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Thanks to the recent good weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving from north to south and total harvest has reached 15 percent of the area. Yields are coming in below expectations, so the Rosario Grain Exchange again reduced its crop estimation from 14 to 13.5 MMT. Rains arr...
European Market Analysis
Through 9 November, Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 90 percent of the total area and spanned 9.84 million hectares (MHa). The total crop is 51.275 MMT, of which corn production has hit 21.22 MMT and the harvest is 72 percent complete. Sunflower seed production has hit 11.52 MMT and just 3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Quiet to End WASDE Week; Bullish South America Weather Looms
The WASDE’s bearish implications continued to push CBOT futures lower on Friday with funds finding little reason to abandon short positions in corn and wheat. The soybean market saw some gains to end the week, however, traders thought Thursday’s 20-cent, post-WASDE selloff, like man...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks, up 25 million on higher yields, to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price was reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cen...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. This month’s 2023/24 global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Market Commentary: Tweaks and Surprises
Futures closed mostly lower with USDA’s mid-session November WASDE report causing a drop-off on higher production and stocks. U.S. Wheat Increased imports by 10 million bushels. Raised ending stocks by 14 million bushels. Lowered the season average price by 10-cents to $7.20/bushe...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply Ahead of November WASDE
The November WASDE usually isn’t a major market-moving event, but you wouldn’t know that from how CBOT futures reacted just one day before the report. Wheat – the bearish laggard of the grain complex – jumped to 20+ cent gains at mid-week with little apparent reasoning...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Start Week Firm; Soybeans Rally as Technicals Lead Fundamentals?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with corn and wheat finding small gains on light buying interest while soybeans jumped higher on export demand and a rally in soyoil. Soyoil futures were nearly 3 percent higher for the day with noted bull spreading in a likely sign of commercial demand. F...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest now covers 10 percent of the total area with an average yield of 1.1 MT/ha. It's important to remember that the harvest begins in the northern part of the country where yields are typically low, and this year, they were further impacted by adverse weather c...
Market Commentary: End of Week Strength Creates Firmer Outlook
The CBOT offered a few surprises to end the week with the major grain markets ending higher with strong buying interest. Corn futures posted a 7-cent gain on Friday after threatening their seasonal lows on Thursday with funds and commercials viewing prices below $4.75 as a value-buying opportun...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Rally, Grains Side Sideways as Harvest Enters Final Stages
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with corn futures drifting sideways while soymeal and soybeans pulled back from recent strength. Wheat futures were mostly lower, but the KCBT market managed to post a hook reversal for the day, which indicates support may be starting to enter the mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After Argentina’s recent presidential election and in anticipation of the runoff election, the current government extended the possibility for all exports of goods and services to access 30 percent of the foreign currency at a higher exchange rate. This move was made to keep financi...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Finally Turnaround; China Washes Out Brazilian Soy Cargoes
The CBOT largely followed its existing trends into the weekend, which meant rallies in soymeal and soybeans, new contract lows in wheat, and sideways trade in corn and soyoil. Live cattle futures finally posted what WPI views as an overdue correction from Monday’s collapse with steady/fir...
Market Commentary: Wheat Had Volume and Gains
The market opened mostly in the green this morning after overnight markets showed small gains for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. About mid-session, corn and the soybean complex began trading both sides unchanged while wheat retained some upward if less lofty positions. In fact,...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Flashes Reversal; South American Rains Douse Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT was heavily influenced by fresh forecasts for beneficial rains in South America over the next two weeks. Rains will offer relief to drought-afflicted Argentina and keep Brazil’s soybean planting (roughly one-third finished so far) moving forward. Moreover, the shift toward a wett...
Market Commentary: CBOT Fails to Maintain Technical Strength; COF Report Sinks Cattle Futures
Last week’s trade saw major ag commodities rally on bullish technical developments with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all topping key chart points. That strength did not last, however, as the CBOT turned lower in what was a weak day across most markets. The situation in the Middle East cont...
Elections and Consequences: Argentina and U.S.House Speaker
Argentina held its national election yesterday, including the multi-candidate presidential race. The results are in: no candidate garnered the necessary 45 percent to win outright so the election will move to a 19 November two candidate run-off. The two qualifying candidates are current Economy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Market Overview and Election Results Last week there was very little activity in the markets leading up to Sunday’s elections. The government completely restricted the exchange market, both formal and informal, to prevent a significant depreciation of the Argentine peso prior to the...
Market Commentary: Topsy-Turvey
Markets traded mostly in the red during the first half of the day’s and then corn, soybeans/meal and wheat turned right-side up. There are a lot of mixed signals. The bears still see it as sideways at best in the middle of harvesting. The bulls appreciate that the demand side is still cru...
Market Commentary: Export News and Rumors Create Mid-Week Strength
Strength developed at the CBOT on Wednesday with another strong rally in soymeal helping pull soybeans higher and, in turn, support the corn market as well. Fresh news is a bit lacking right now, so export news and rumors of possible sales have an outsized influence on the market. Soybeans cont...
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Show Strong Consumer Spending; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with a surge in soymeal futures helping pull soybeans higher amid a lack of fresh fundamental commodity news. Indeed, the biggest news of the day was more pertinent for the macroeconomic markets (equities, bonds, currencies, etc.) as the retail sales report showed...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Report; Exports Improve as Barge Rates Fall
The soy complex was the upside leader at the CBOT to start the week with a bullish NOPA report driving the markets. NOPA reported a record-large September crush and soyoil stocks at nine-year lows, which sent soybeans and soyoil futures higher for the day. Beyond that, grain and livestock marke...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Sorghum Little has been said about the sorghum crop in Argentina, but it is having a very particular year. The 2023 crop produced 2.5 MMT according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on 845,000 hectares of harvested land. This is far below the nearly-3.5 MMT harvested in 2020/21 and 2021/...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA kept their estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels for U.S. soybean ending stocks. The estimate for U.S. production was reduced 42 million on lower yields, but beginning stocks were increased and soybean exports reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion (due to increased competition fro...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels to 2,111 million bushels for 2023/24. This is still a healthy ending stocks, but the estimated season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers was raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 1...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina The disparity in wheat cultivation in Argentina is something rarely seen. Looking at the South and Southeast areas of Buenos Aires province, the wheat crops are large, beautiful and with a potential yield that is within historical or even above historical levels. Outside o...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Supply Expectations; Hog Trend Reversal Underway?
The CBOT was mostly lower in lackluster trade Wednesday with soymeal, live cattle, and hogs seeing the only substantial gains. The general trend for the week seems to be that global grain and oilseed supplies will be more ample for 2023/24 than expected, which is weighing on futures. Grains wer...
Argentina’s Declining Wheat
El Nino continues to disrupt crop production around the world, and it is not done with Argentina. The country suffered a record crop falloff last season due to the weather phenomenon and now a similar pattern of dryness is impacting two-thirds of the wheat area. The result is a declining wheat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Outlook The arrival of the expected "El Niño" weather event for Argentina continues to be delayed, and the situation is becoming more complex every day. There is a very large area that includes the western part of Buenos Aires, the eastern part of La Pampa, the provinces of...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,000 MT, which now stands at a total production of 15 MMT. This is because the area from the center of the Cordoba Province northward and wes...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Since our last report, there have been some rains in much of the agricultural region that was affected by drought, especially in the Nucleus region and the South of Córdoba. The rains saved many wheat fields. However, some fields have already suffered irreversible damage, and other...
Market Commentary: Declining Crop Ratings Push CBOT Higher; Wheat Rallies on Russian Attacks
Tuesday’s surprise (but not entirely unexpected) decline in U.S. corn and soybean conditions ratings, in tandem with more Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, sent the CBOT sharply higher overnight. KCBT wheat was the only market, however, to maintain most of its strength with CBOT wheat,...
Brazil and China Dominate Beef Market
A drop in U.S. beef exports is corresponding with the cattle cycle fall in production. U.S. beef production is falling by a half million tons, with domestic consumption losing about half that amount, and reduced exports offsetting about a third of the lower output. The export drop looks more si...
Market Commentary: Paris Contract Leads Wheat Lower; Better Conditions Pressure Corn, Soy
The CBOT was entirely red across the major ag commodities Tuesday as weak technical conditions and better than expected crop conditions pressured trader sentiment. Monday’s Crop Conditions report featured bearish surprises in that last weeks’ heatwave didn’t result in the shar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The trend for Argentina’s wheat fields is that good plots continue to improve while stressed crops continue to worsen. The country saw rain last week that fell over the south/center agricultural area with good moisture conditions. However, in the central and northern parts of the ag...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to global GDP than the G7 (30.7 percent). They also comprise 26.7 percent of the world's land surface and 41.5 percent of the global population...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Ukraine Starts Export Corridor; Soy Rallies on Scorching Forecast
The U.S. weather was just as hot and dry over the weekend as expected and this week’s outlook is unchanged with scorching temperatures predicted for most of the Midwest and Plains. You wouldn’t know it from futures’ price action on Monday, however, as corn and wheat futures pl...
Argentina Elections and Trade implications
Argentina has an upcoming Presidential election in October. Candidates in Argentina run in an open, or what is called in the U.S. a “jungle,” primary as is done in a couple of states for Senate and Congressional races (Georgia and Louisiana). The top individual vote getters move to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics After Argentina’s elections and currency devaluation, it experienced another week filled with rumors and uncertainty. Financial and parallel exchange rates adjusted automatically, causing the gap against the official rate to exceed 100 percent, which was worse than before t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Politics This weekend, Argentina’s primary elections were held to determine candidates for the general elections scheduled for October, which will define the President, governors, and part of the Chambers (Congress). The results were surprising as Javier Milei (liberal...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more than use and that caused ending stocks to decline by 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn In addition to implementing a differential exchange rate for corn, exporters were granted a 240-day extension to fulfill export permits that had shipment dates between 24 July and 30 September and the exportable surplus was increased to 26 MMT. With this extension, the government eases pre...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The New Agro Dollar Finally, the government confirmed a new agricultural exchange rate – the “agro dollar” program, from which soybeans are excluded. The following products are subject to a higher exchange rate (340 ARS/USD) until 31 August 2023: corn, barley, sunflower, malt,...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts
Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure. That alone would have been enough to send markets into rally mode, but it was coupled with a third bullish factor – an extremely hot a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Politics and “Agro Dollar” Rumors In an environment plagued by rumors and uncertainty, Argentina has become a country where normal business operations are nearly impossible. The constant prospect of new announcements tends to paralyze markets. Ultimately, the announcements are...
Market Commentary: Improved August Weather Forecast Prompts Profit Taking
The CBOT pulled back heading into the weekend on profit taking and NOAA’s new August weather forecast that shows more moderate temperatures and normal rains for most of the Corn Belt and Midwest. While any forecast longer than 10-days has been highly inaccurate this summer, the latest gui...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 87 percent of the expected wheat area has been planted, currently covering 6 Mha (compared to 6.3 Mha in the previous season). In contrast, the Rosario Grain Exchange estimates 5.4 Mha of seeded area (compared to 5.9 Mha in the previous...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA reduced their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, 50 million lower than last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $375.00...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 2,262 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged relative to last month. Global corn stocks are up 0.1...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat This week Argentina saw low intensity rains, but they again fell on areas that at this moment do not have any need of the moisture. On the other hand, the western portion of the agricultural area and a large part of the nucleus region continue to suffer with no rain. Many farmers have alr...
Know Thy Brother; Remembering Abe
Know Thy Brother Europe and Latin America had one of the weirder policy exchanges of the week. Heads of state from the Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) travel to Europe 17-18 July and are debating a communique with the EU ahead of the visit. Europe has targeted Latin American countri...
Atypical BSE and the WOAH; What Will China Do?
The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) announced last month that it has removed atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) from the list of animal diseases that require compulsory notification. As WPI covered in May, A 5-year-old cow in South Carolina was discovered to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat sowing is progressing at a good pace thanks to favourable weather conditions, and with a weekly progress of almost 14 percent, 71 percent of the expected area has been sown. There are still areas with virtually no moisture reserves (see map below with the areas of...
Market Commentary: Major Surprises in Acreage, Grain Stocks Reports; Cattle Hit New Highs
USDA’s highly anticipated June Acreage estimates and quarterly Grain Stocks reports did not fail to live up to their hype and brought several significant surprises on Friday. This article will detail the reports and their implications in the next paragraphs, but in summary, corn planted a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat outlook for the 2023/24 season continues to worsen and fall below expectations. The lack of rainfall in the western areas of Buenos Aires province, the northern and western nucleus region, and Cordoba is hindering farmers’ ability to sow fields. Many farms ei...
Brazil Grain Storage Increases
Much like the U.S. historically, Brazil’s capacity to store its grain (wheat, coarse grains, rice, soybeans) output has been increasing with its production gains. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the number of silos being built is growing faster than bulk...
Market Commentary: More Weather Premium
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. New crop futures traded higher again today as there is still no improvement in a weather pattern that compelled USDA to drop the share of corn and soybeans rated Good/Excellent to lows not seen in four years a...
Market Commentary: Lack of Rain Driving Out Shorts
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. Agricultural commodity futures continue to be driven by the El Nino advisory and its associated weather. While some parts of the Corn Belt received some moisture this past weekend, too many areas were missed...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Trade activity was more quiet last week in Brazil. China made purchases for July and August positions but the number of vessels involved was limited. Some trading companies took advantage of the recent drop in prices and bought positions. For instance, an August shipment that was previ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projection for U.S. soybeans is for 2023/24 ending stocks of 350 million bushels, up 15 million from 2022/23. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 123.3 million with higher stocks for the United States, Brazil, and the EU being partly offset by lower stock...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s projection for U.S. corn is for increases to both beginning and ending stocks: U.S. exports are lowered 50 million bushels and ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels to 2,257 - this is well above the 2022/23 ending stocks of 1,452 million bushel. The season-average farm price...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Beats WASDE Story
Before the June report was issued, corn and wheat were trading lower and soybeans were up by around 18 cents. Overall, the report was bearish both corn and soybeans, and somewhat bullish wheat. But that is not how the market necessarily played it. Corn and HRW understandably closed lower and SR...
Market Commentary: Weather Everywhere
Today’s trading brought corn and wheat back down to earth based on possible improved rains next week. Emphasis on possible since nothing is assured. Such a dry start is usually not the opening to a bin buster and all eyes are first on tomorrow’s weekly Drought Monitor report, next o...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans It seems that there were several traders who were long on positions and suddenly became nervous as the demand failed to materialize. Consequently, prices started to decline rapidly with some trading houses reaching the limits of positioning. This required some traders to sell off...
Market Commentary: Weather Market
Thursday’s release of USDA’s weekly Drought Monitor report reinforced that new crops in the ground could begin to feel some stress. The report showed abnormally dry conditions throughout most of the U.S. production zone. The early season dryness could really impact corn, whic...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trade Reflects Long Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a bearish note with expectations for strong planting progress across the U.S. and sluggish demand weighing on markets. Friday’s CFTC report that showed continued fund short selling in major ag commodities also helped keep markets on the defensive to start the...
Market Commentary: Wishy Washy
Sometimes markets trade with momentum, an ongoing path in the same direction. Sometimes there are reversals. There is often a day trading open that initially copies the overnight close. Then there are days in which big money seems to not know which way to go. Days like today when July soybeans...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm as Wheat Posts Reversal; Soy Complex Plays Defense
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat firming with increased short covering and buying interest amid oversold technical conditions and recent selloff lows. Growing concerns about Russia’s refusal to allow grain export vessels into one Ukrainian port also helped put a bid under...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Short Covering Rally Amid Long-Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with short covering on deeply oversold technical conditions and a dry 10-day weather forecast for the central and eastern Corn Belt offering support. Soybeans led the move higher overnight and posted strong gains during the day session with corn followin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There was a lot of anticipation regarding the rains that were forecast for this past weekend, and most of the Buenos Aires province received a good amount of precipitation. Although it’s still not the 100-120 mm need to recover the soil profiles, it will help farmers start planting...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues Despite Tour Yields; Corn, Soybeans Score New Lows
The CBOT was, once again, mostly lower to end a week of strong selling as fund liquidation and speculative short selling continued. There was little fresh fundamental news for the day - and what bullish news developed for the wheat market was mostly ignored – which left the market to cont...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat prices continue to rise in Argentina’s local market, mainly due to millers’ participation as farmer sales remain low. While many mills still have sufficient stocks for a few months, they cannot afford to stop buying as there are many months remaining until the arrival of...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. Soybean exports are for...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn is for higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10 percent from last year on increases to both area and yield. The yield projection of 181.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adju...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Market Commentary: A Story of Mixed Proportions
It might be called pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report, but it looked like more of the same. Corn and wheat took their dings, but soybeans and meal were immune. The trend is down, and this week of trading has reinforced that dynamic. But it isn’t an exuberant a...
Market Commentary: HRW Wheat Rally Continues While Corn, Soybeans Await WASDE
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly focused on positioning for the May WASDE report that USDA will release on Friday. That meant relatively quiet trade in corn and the soy complex where early rallies met selling pressure that knocked contracts off their highs for the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat markets in Argentina have started to react to the ongoing drought and its impact on the wheat planting effort. This has resulted in higher prices and bids, primarily in the local market. In the FOB market, the country is already too expensive to compete with other major exporters to...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finds Support while Wheat Falls Further
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with wheat futures tumbling to new lows under pressure from Black Sea values and the EU’s recent move to block imports of Ukrainian grain into five key countries. Recent precipitation in the U.S. also kept futures on the defensive and funds remain eage...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn To date, 17.5 percent of Argentina’s corn area has been harvested. Currently, combines are in the center of the country harvesting the early corn crop and yields continue well below recent years’ averages. However, total harvest estimates remain around 34-35 MMT. Local market p...
Market Commentary: Few Deliveries, Short Covering Help CBOT Shake Off Thursday’s Drubbing
The CBOT started the overnight and day sessions with pronounced weakness and follow-through selling from Thursday’s collapse in grain values. That selling did not last past midday, however, and the major ag markets posted a strong recovery by the closing bell. Perhaps the most impressive...
Market Commentary: Not Rosy Like Wall Street
Outside markets were screaming hot today, but most agricultural commodities not so much. Tech companies boosted the Nasdaq by 2.43 percent and pulled along the Dow by nearly 2 percent and the S&P by almost 1.5 percent. But upbeat tech corporate earnings reports had no impact on grains and o...
Market Commentary: Rains Fall and So Does Wheat; Brazil Still Driving Corn, Soy Lower
The CBOT was mostly red again on Wednesday with favorable rains in the Southern Plains pressuring wheat futures, which broke below technical support zones again today. Corn and soybeans were mostly lower as well, though the soybean market is starting to show some signs of stabilizing, as pressu...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces off Support; Bears Drive Wheat, Soy Complex Lower
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday as fund liquidation and short-selling continued amid pressure from the massive Brazilian soybean crop and promises for an equally formidable safrinha corn crop. Brazil seems to be dominating the market discussion right now, especially in the soy complex, and...
Market Commentary: Technical, Fund Selling Drive CBOT Lower to Start the Week
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week amid a combination of technically driven and fund position liquidation selling. After the charts turned weak at the end of last week, funds were already starting to lighten up on long positions and continued that trend with more vigor on Monday. Recen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The moisture content of corn still standing in Argentina’s fields continues to fall, allowing for faster harvest progress. To date, 15 percent of the area has been harvested with an average yield of 4.1 MT/ha. Even though Argentina will have a much smaller crop than in previous...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sharply Lower on Weak Charts and Good Brazilian Weather
Weak charts and good weather for Brazilian crops pressured the CBOT at week’s end with the major market ending sharply lower. After corn and soybeans failed to overcome resistance earlier this week, fund selling and position liquidation has dominated the trade, and cheap Brazilian soybean...
Market Commentary: Weaker Day on Weather and Demand
There was red across the board today, except in red meat where there was green. Lots of variables this time of year but especially weather help to unhinge some of the speculative interest. The focus seemed to be more on rain hitting the U.S. production area and especially HRW, as opposed to a r...
Argentina Drought Solution
Each week estimates for Argentina’s crop output decline as this season’s drought takes its toll. Some say it is the worst drought in 60 years, others say it is in 100 years. The most significant drought most recent to this one occurred in 2017/18. It is evident that in the central-w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The corn harvest has picked up speed and almost 13 percent of the area has been harvested to date. Farmer selling of corn supplies has been slowly improving, except for the week when the new “soy dollar” or “agri dollar” was announced. That week saw...
Livestock Round Up: Trade and Global Production Outlook
USDA released its Livestock and Poultry quarterly trade update this week, showing a mix of exports coming on to the global market. Global beef trade is forecast to stay virtually the same as 2022, pork is forecast to be down, and broiler meat to increase about 1 percent. That compares to foreca...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts is unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean meal prices are also unchanged. The soybean oil price is projected at 64.0 cents per pound, down 2 cents. Global 2022/23 soybean production is reduc...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.275 bil...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports, based on the pace of Census imports reported to date. Domestic use is lo...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Supportive Soybeans, Neutral Corn
The CBOT was mixed heading into the WASDE report with soybeans showing surprising strength and corn paring back some of Monday’s short-covering gains while wheat was flat/slightly lower. The WASDE produced the typical volatile reaction immediately after its release, but markets soon stead...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Hit New Highs After Record Trade Last Week
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the April WASDE on Tuesday, though the soy complex lagged the grain markets’ gains. Wheat futures were higher after Russia threatened last Friday to essentially ignore the Black Sea grain export corridor deal unless barriers to its own exports are r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Market Overview Last week’s trading in Argentina was shortened as both Thursday and Friday were holidays. Additionally, before the week began, the government announced new measures for an agricultural exchange rate, i.e., recreating the famous “soy dollar”. There...
Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight
The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feature more favorable planting conditions for most of the Midwest and Northern Plains in the next few weeks, which helped pressure corn, soybea...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Red on Turnaround Tuesday
Nearly every major agricultural futures market was lower on Tuesday as the impact of USDA’s recent reports seemed to wear off. The third round of Argentina’s “soy dollar” program and the lack of fresh export sales news for corn sent the soy complex and corn futures lower...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s March wheat exports ended at almost 400 KMT, 80 percent of which went to Brazil. There was also one vessel sold to Chile, one to Colombia, and one to Peru. Total exports so far this season are 1.85 MMT, which is still historically low but if the current trends continue,...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won't fall further. The harvest is complete across approximately 5 percent of the area with an average yield of 3.45 MT/ha. Everyone was expecti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of selling hitting all three markets after the morning opening. That pressure helped push corn lower initially, though old crop futures manage...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowly to cover their spot needs, and only from time to time will exporters come out to sell part of their wheat. Consequently, prices in the loc...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s soil moisture maps are, frankly, scary. The moisture profiles are totally dry, and in many cases soils need more than 200 mm to recover. Different weather forecasts show the end of the La Nina for the short term, but rains are still not coming. The southeastern...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Firm to End Punishing Week; Technical Weakness Pushes Cattle, Soyoil Lower
After a bloodbath of a week, the CBOT finally showed some signs of support and higher trade on Friday. Wheat was actually the upside leader (yes, you read that correctly), due largely to short-covering and risk-off trade related to Russia’s increased attacks in Ukraine and the risks facin...
Market Commentary: Weird, Weird Day
Today’s market opened generally tracking the higher close in the overnight session. It was bolstered by more cuts in expected Argentina production. But then USDA’s Export Sales report indicated marketing year record low soybeans sales last week and there was an about face that turne...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Market Commentary: WASDE Features Deep Cuts to Argy Crops, U.S. Corn Exports
The CBOT was, as it usually is, solely focused on the USDA’s WASDE report that came out at Noon today. Heading into the report, ag futures were mixed in light volume trade with wheat and corn heading lower while soybeans were 6-7 cents higher. The WASDE offered little fundamental informat...
Market Commentary: Short-Covering Lifts Wheat; Soy Complex Falls on Plunging Crude and Soyoil
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was largely devoted to pre-WASDE report positioning and position evening. Wheat futures staged a mild turn-around and settled a few cents higher amid deeply oversold technical conditions. Soybean futures turned lower as a pronounced selloff in crude oil and soyoil pul...
Market Commentary: Red-Hot Meal Market Pulls Soybeans Higher; Funds Retain Bearish Control of Wheat
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with just two full trading days before the March WASDE report. There was a good bit of pre-report positioning that occurred on Monday but trading volumes were still surprisingly heavy, except for corn. The major surprise of the CBOT continues to be soymeal,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The weather continues to give no respite for Argentina’s corn crop. The country is experiencing a heat wave with few precedents at a time of relentless drought no predicted rains. Both crop conditions and moisture conditions continue to deteriorate week by week. Presently, 63 percent...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie
It was a mixed day but mostly lower volume (except for soyoil) as the market appears generally comfortable with current values. Even Russia’s charge that Ukraine has attacked the Motherland did not cause a reaction. Thus far this week, corn is down 10 cents, soybeans down 4, and SRW off b...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Join the Selloff; Liquidation Trade Obliterates Technical Support
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with corn breaking below key technical support points and wheat posting another set of selloff lows. Paris wheat futures set the tone for the grain markets overnight and declined to their lowest levels since September 2021. The big surprise for the day, how...
Market Commentary: Fund Selling Punishes Corn, Wheat; Brazil’s Progress More Influential than Argy Weather
Funds were still aggressive net sellers to start the week and drove wheat and corn futures to new selloff lows. Both markets also received fundamental pressure from international competition (e.g., Russia’s cheap wheat offers) and, in the case of corn, slow U.S. exports. The day’s p...
China Driving Changes in Brazilian Beef Production
Brazil last week reported a case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE); it was discovered in a seven-year-old cow in the northern state of Pará. About 25 percent of Brazil’s beef herd is in the northern region. Lab tests from the World Organization for Animal Health fa...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Although there has been a change in the weather pattern since the beginning of the year and Argentina has seen more rains, the precipitation was heterogeneous and insufficient to recover the soil profiles. The heat shocks, with temperatures above 40°C, also have not helped the situatio...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Selloff Continues; Soybeans Try to Stabilize; Cattle on Feed Report Supportive
The CBOT continued its selloff on Friday and wheat and corn futures plunged lower in heavy volume trade. The catalyst for corn’s selloff was, of course, the USDA’s bearish Ag Outlook Forum balance sheet numbers, but wheat was seemingly pressured primarily by technical and short sell...
Market Commentary: Delayed Reaction
USDA issued its outlook for 2023 major crops before the market opened this morning but the reaction to it was slow to develop. Perhaps initially because it didn’t really contain any surprises, and it mostly impacts the long-deferred contracts. Prices have been sky-high, and farmers are go...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Sends CBOT Lower
Except for cattle and soyoil futures the major CBOT/CME ag markets turned red on Wednesday with a combination of surprise weather, technical selling, and a stronger U.S. dollar pressuring markets. The U.S. dollar ticked 36 bps higher on Wednesday, which helped pressure wheat futures along with...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex, Corn Rallies on Argy Frosts; Hogs Explode Higher; Wheat Falls on Technical Trade
The CBOT saw strong, active trade to start the holiday-shortened trading week with the soy complex leading the way higher after frosts developed in Argentina. The cold weather was not what the country’s producers wanted to see and cast even more doubts on this year’s crop. The frost...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Worsen; CBOT Chops Sideways into Weekend
The CBOT posted a day of two-sided trade on Friday to end a week of choppy, two-sided trade. With the three-day weekend coming up, few traders were interested in extending positions or adding risk to portfolios, which limited trading volume and price action. Additionally, there was little fresh...
Market Commentary: Exhausting the Angst
Markets trade on fundamentals and right now is the equivalent of being an ebb tide. It is a shift from angst over supply-reducing weather in South America to the bearish awe of watching its production come to market. What happens during the ebb tide is very low volume, the sole exception today...
Market Commentary: Dollar Rallies on Retail Sales Numbers, Pressures CBOT Trade
The CBOT turned lower again at mid-week with an unexpectedly strong retail sales report sparking a rally in the U.S. dollar. That, in turn, pressured CBOT commodities, which (except for soybeans) have already been struggling on the export market. Wheat futures led the way lower on the currency...
Market Commentary: Bullish Start for the Week
The CBOT largely continued Friday’s Russia-induced rally with help from another weekend of terrible weather for crops in Argentina. Soybeans and soymeal started out strong Sunday night and pushed higher with corn and wheat in tow. That dynamic changed through the day session, however, as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Many early-crop corn fields have been heavily impacted by drought and yields will be very low. Other fields have been burned or chopped early for animal feed, as farmers took advantage of the low-yielding crop to bolster scarce forage supplies. The second-crop corn is holding up bett...
Market Commentary: Post-WASDE Drip
There was higher volume trading corn, soybeans, and soymeal, but resulting in just a half penny change in soybeans. There was low volume trading in February live cattle and that was just to square up positions in this soon to be expiring contract. All of the deferred contracts went the opposite...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA projects lower soybean crush and higher ending stocks. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.30 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month. The soybean...
WASDE Corn
USDA projected lower U.S. corn use for ethanol and larger ending stocks. U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, wit...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made minor revisions to domestic wheat use and ending stocks. Wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million tons with offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 1 million bushels to 568 million and the 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.1...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading, Commercial Buying; WASDE Cuts World Corn, Soybean Stocks
The CBOT was mostly waiting for the WASDE report early on Wednesday with the major ag markets seeing little directional influence. The exception was the wheat market, which saw bull spreading develop from the opening bell that carried futures above major technical targets. Not even a mostly neu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates in pre-WASDE Trade; WPI Issues 2023/24 Grain Forecasts
The CBOT was mixed in mostly consolidative trade on Tuesday heading into the February WASDE. The market saw some quiet weakness in corn and CBOT wheat while HRW futures strengthened. The soy complex saw a mix of delivering product values with soyoil rallying sharply with support from palm oil a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Hit New Highs; Hogs Fall Sharply
The CBOT saw mostly consolidative trade to start the week just two days ahead of the February WASDE report. KCBT wheat futures attempted to rally but were turned back and posted slight gains amid mild commercial buying. Soybeans and soymeal were lower in mostly consolidative trade while soyoil...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn During January, most of Argentina’s agricultural region received an average of 100 mm of rain, which helped to partly reverse several months of extreme drought. This gave a second life to late planted corn, which was planted late to avoid pollinating/kernel filling during late Decemb...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Collapses on Weaker Crude; New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ended the week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans grinding lower while corn saw mild strength. The big movers for the day were soymeal, which scored new contract highs not once but twice, and soyoil, which plunged lower amid a crude oil selloff. There was a strong sense of p...
Market Commentary: Groundhog Sympathy
Punxsutawney Phil reportedly saw his shadow today at Gobbler’s Knob and there will supposedly be six more weeks of winter, though he is like a grain analyst and has been wrong as often as he’s been right. The markets were unmoved by this annual stunt and mostly traded its now famili...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Firm; Soy Complex, Energy Markets Fall; Fed Decision Boosts Late-Date Trade
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with pronounced weakness in energy markets and technical/fund selling driving the soy complex sharply lower. Corn futures dipped lower in early trade but found a late-day surge after the Fed’s interest rate decision. Wheat futures were mixed with KCBT...
Market Commentary: Technicals Dominate on Light Fundamentals
Ag futures saw another day of mixed trade with CBOT wheat taking a surprising lead and posting a technically bullish day while corn futures sank lower after hitting technical resistance. Soybeans saw strong bull spreading that led to rumors of possible export sales activity while soymeal drifte...
Parsing the Data
Brazil’s meat processors are expressing angst that their country’s boosted corn exports to China this year will drive up domestic feed costs to what they describe as an “overpriced” level. The number of Chinese bidders for imported corn is large as the Middle Kingdom&rsq...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, Live Cattle Post New Contract Highs; Grains End Firmer
The CBOT was stronger to start the day with corn and wheat finding mild, continued strength from last week’s rallies. The winterkill threats to the HRW crop mean that KCBT wheat is the upside leader in wheat futures with funds slowly shifting to the long side of the market. Corn ticked hi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains that have fallen so far in 2023 indicate a possible change in the South American weather pattern. They have been good in terms of quantity and regularity and have been covering practically the entire agricultural area. In addition, forecasts continue to be favorable for the next week...
Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts
The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, with several markets forming or hinting at trend reversals. For the day, corn futures showed some strength early but ended flat while the soy...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further
Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and short-covering. The soy complex attempted the same but could not hold gains as showers fell across Argentina again and are forecast to contin...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Create CBOT Selling Flood
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but this week it’s falling on Argentina and causing a flood of CBOT sell orders. Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all came under heavy selling pressure to start the week as funds liquidated fresh longs that quickly became underwater. The odd th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat continues to be scarce in general across Latin America, but especially in Argentina. It is strange to see Argentina’s export volumes practically equal to those of Brazil. It is even possible that the cumulative December/January total may see Brazil exporting more wheat than Ar...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Lower on Technical Follow-Through; KC Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note with wheat futures strengthening amid commercial buying and bull spreading while soymeal futures traded sharply lower following Wednesday’s key reversal. Corn was caught somewhat in the middle and settled fractionally lower for the day with more lat...
Market Commentary: Risk Off
This was not so much a day of trade based on commitment but on ambivalence. Volume was modest at best, except in Feeder Cattle. Corn, soybeans, and wheat traded both sides of nowhere, influenced in part by Wall Street concerns about a recession, and the forecast for rain in Argentina. Apparentl...
Market Commentary: Rains in Argentina’s Forecast Pressure CBOT
The CBOT started the day on a strong note and tried to capitalize on Tuesday’s strength but faltered and ended lower after updated weather models showed meaningful rains for Argentina and southern Brazil in the next two weeks. This week remains relatively dry, but the EU and GFS models sh...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off Early Weakness to Post a Bullish Day
The CBOT started Tuesday with bearish pressure that impacted corn, soybeans, and wheat alike. The day’s trade didn’t end there, however, and the major grain markets settled higher to start the week. Traders initially reacted to the forecasts for a winter storm across the Southern Pl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends WASDE Week on Quiet Strength; All Eyes on Argentine Weather
The CBOT saw somewhat volatile trade following the January WASDE but strength was noted in soybeans, corn, and KCBT wheat. The futures market did not post any particularly large rallies on Friday, indicating Thursday’s trade was mostly sufficient to “price in” the new informat...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA reduced U.S. corn production to 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, an...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
Market Commentary: Surprise Information Bonanza!
USDA unloaded a gigabyte of data today and a bunch of it was not as expected. The pre-report temperature was bearish. Corn, winter wheats, and livestock were trading down from the open and soybeans went from a double-digit gain to barely hanging on to a single digit increase ahead of the releas...
Market Commentary: CBOT Steady/Higher Ahead of WASDE; Hog Selloff Intensifies
Wednesday’s CBOT trade was almost entirely focused on positioning for the January WASDE that will be released at noon Thursday. For corn and soybeans, that meant cautiously higher trade with the markets following through on Tuesday’s late-day rallies. The soybean rally came despite...
Market Commentary: Volatile Trade for Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Falls on European Weakness
Trading at the CBOT was active on Tuesday with most major markets scoring wide ranges but ending well away from the day’s extremes. Wheat futures plunged lower amid weakness from the European markets but pared losses heading into the close while corn and soybeans backed away from their da...
Market Commentary: Grains Lower in pre-WASDE Trade; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with funds remaining in a defensive mood heading into the January WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. The USDA will release both reports at noon on Thursday and the report(s) certainly have good potential to be major market movers. Much of the focus will...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina has ended with an estimated production of 11.5-12.5 MMT. This is no surprise to the market and compares with a 22 MMT crop from last season. The overall quality has been good, with high test weigh and gluten content, which is good news for local millers who...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Fuel Soy Rally; Livestock Markets Move Lower
The CBOT was mixed to end a week that featured mostly bearishness with a surprise decline in Argentina’s soybean crop ratings sparking a rally in soybeans and soymeal. Corn futures traded both sides of unchanged and only posted 1-cent gains for the day, but signs of strength were evident...
Market Commentary: Mixed and Confused
Today was another mixed but generally bearish trading day in the New Year. Nothing has changed from the fundamentals of December when values generally moved higher, except maybe new doubts about the general direction. December’s highs are now on the defensive. The only thing holding up th...
Market Commentary: Recession Forecasts, Fund Selling Sink Ag Futures
Except for cattle futures, the CBOT and CME ag markets were all lower on Wednesday as bearishness remains the prevailing sentiment. Commodity markets received a widespread blow on Wednesday after reports surfaced that many financial analysts expect a recession in the U.S. and the world in 2023...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sags to Start New Year; Late-2022 Rallies Fade
The CBOT and CME markets were almost unanimously lower to start 2023 with demand – either from exports or domestic consumption – being a primary factor for the day’s declines. Last week saw strong rallies in several markets, including corn and the livestock contracts, but thos...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Market Commentary: Wheat Futures Ignore Winter Storm; Soy Complex Rallies Again
The CBOT is starting to show its typical pre-holiday quieting of trade and volatility but is not without a few surprises. The soy complex was the upside leader on Tuesday with another rally in soyoil creating strength across the complex. That spilled over into 15-17-cent gains for soybeans, whi...
Market Commentary: Argy Rains Pressure CBOT; Soymeal Breaks Support; Storm System Threatens U.S. Wheat
The CBOT was mostly lower in early week trade with traders still exiting positions ahead of the next two weeks’ holidays. Fundamental news was light, and the market was primarily focused on the bearish factors of rains in Argentina and the slow U.S. export pace. Funds were net sellers for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine harvest keeps moving at a good pace and the national average yield is increasing as combines enter areas in the center and south of Buenos Aires. The national average increased from 1.88 MT/ha to 1.96 MT/ha last week. The weekly progress was 11 percent and total harvested re...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises While Grains Fall in Choppy Trade; Hogs Post $4 Rally
The CBOT was relatively calm on Friday despite the ongoing meltdown in macroeconomic markets. Corn traded both sides of unchanged before ending fractionally lower while wheat futures pushed lower in “give up” selling after the markets failed to do much this week. The soy complex was...
Market Commentary: Macro Slam
Last half December is generally quiet and rangebound in the markets as the B Team is instructed to ride out the holidays in a caution mode. Except for the higher volume today in SRW on fears of an Arctic vortex, volume in corn and the soy complex was down by a third. That makes the market...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rise on Bull Spreading; Corn, Wheat Drift Lower in Light Volume
The CBOT traded a quiet day at mid-week with corn and wheat pushing lower and bull spreading developing in soybeans and soymeal. The soy complex remains the hot market for now with soymeal holding just below recent contract highs and commercials still buying, as evidenced by the spread trade. C...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Surges Again; Lower U.S. Dollar Sends Wheat, Corn to Early Gains
The major feature of the CBOT on Tuesday was the rally in all legs of the soy crush. Soybeans, soyoil, and to a lesser extent, soymeal, all posted strong gains for the day as U.S. demand comes into greater focus amid the plight of the Argentine crop. The ongoing drought in Argentina is promptin...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Flips Recent Trends; Corn, Wheat Rally After Russia Attacks Odessa Port
The CBOT essentially abandoned its existing trends on Monday and volatility was pronounced, especially in the soy complex. For the past few weeks, soybeans and soymeal have been trending higher while soyoil collapsed under the EPA’s new biofuel mandates. That changed almost without warnin...
Latin American Political Stability
Political instability should be a threat to food security, though that does not appear to be the case in Latin America. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization categorizes Venezuela as very politically unstable, yet its per capita food supply is listed as relatively high, at least as reported...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Dry weather and a sweltering heat wave allowed for a rapid advance of the wheat harvest and an even earlier harvest date in the southern part of the agricultural area. Farmers harvested an additional 19 percent of the area last week, putting the total harvest at 42 percent completion.&nbs...
WASDE Soybeans
Domestics U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month. USDA explained that due to their review of EPA's recent proposed rule for renewable fuel targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022/23 is reduced 200 million pounds to 11.6 billion. Soyb...
WASDE Corn
U.S. domestic corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels due to slow sales. As a result, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.70 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Foreign cor...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production. ...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Exports; Argy Wheat Crop Falls to 12.5 MMT; Cattle Take Back Early Losses
The December WASDE made few changes to its outlook for the world grain supply and demand situation, which left the CBOT to essentially continue its existing trends. Wheat futures sold off 10-12 cents lower and soyoil joined the weakness and broke a major technical support zone. Soymeal continue...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Tails
Wheat and corn continue to trade on one edge of the distribution while soybeans and soymeal chase the other side. The continuing trend is for declines in the value of corn and wheat, while soybeans push higher. Thus far this week, January soybeans have gained 47.75 cents (3.3 percent), while co...
Market Commentary: The Dead Cat Bounces Again in Wheat; Soymeal Hits Fresh Highs on Argy Weather
The CBOT seemed to start looking ahead to Friday’s December WASDE from the USDA at mid-week, which created a temporary, at least, pause in the selling spree. After a near-constant selloff over the past three weeks, wheat futures bounced unconvincingly higher on short-covering and profit t...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Highs New Highs; Cattle, Hogs Plunge Lower; Weakness in Corn, Wheat Continues
Soymeal was the upside leader (and one of the few markets to finish higher) on Tuesday as a combination of tight spot supplies and strong feed demand bolster physical prices. Soymeal futures surged to new contract highs on heavy volume, which helped pull the soybean market into the green as wel...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest reached almost 25 percent of the area last week. Harvesting in the north of the country is considered finished and yields are 30 percent below historical levels. Meanwhile, the harvest is progressing in central and northern Cordoba and Santa Fe with very he...
Market Commentary: RVOs Sink Soyoil; Funds Hasten Corn, Wheat Selling; Farm Income Rises
The impacts and implications of the EPA’s newest renewable fuel obligations continue to ripple through the CBOT markets. Soyoil futures sold off sharply again on Friday while the soybean market managed to squeeze out a small gain for the day. While the EPA mandates were essentially neutra...
Market Commentary: More Braking
Traders continue to step on the brakes but have not yet broken any lines of support but are getting close. Soyoil dragged the complex lower as it hit the daily trading limit, but things could reverse tomorrow. After the close, USDA issued its October Oilseed Crushing report and it was bullish...
Market Commentary: Argentina Creates New “Soy Dollar”; CBOT Soy Complex Rallies; Hog Selloff Intensifies
The CBOT started the day on a weak note with the protests in China and the government’s resulting crackdown creating widespread pressure on financial and commodity markets. The protests and the government’s response created worries about the Middle Kingdom’s demand for a myria...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Brazil Finally, the first vessel loaded with Brazil corn and destined for China will leave the port of Santos this week. The vessel Mv Star Iris is set to load 68,000 MT of corn for COFCO. Many expected Brazil to start shipping corn in 2023, but others expected it to occur in December 2022...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Pre-Holiday Trade; AMLO Softens Stance on GMOs
The CBOT was mostly higher in quiet, pre-holiday trade and the theme of the day was position liquidation and risk-off heading into what is practically a four-day weekend. Corn and soybeans found fundamental strength from higher ethanol output and export sales to China, respectively. That helped...
Market Commentary: Wheat Spreads Show Diverging Trends; Cold Storage Bullish Livestock Futures
The CBOT was mostly lower in quiet, pre-holiday trade with traders liquidating positions ahead of the coming Thanksgiving vacation day. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all moved lower amid mild profit taking and fund selling, despite a pullback in the U.S. dollar that offered a modest boost to U.S. e...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Cattle Rally on Bullish Data; Grains Sink Lower in Bear Spreading
Corn and wheat futures were on the defensive again to start the week amid fund selling and liquidation trade. Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, funds are increasingly bearish wheat and are pricing that view into the market. Corn futures remain pressured by the dismal export performance so far...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There were no major developments in the wheat markets last week. Production estimates remain unchanged from what WPI has reported over the past month. Argentina’s export surplus is still forecast at 6.5 MMT, but that volume could be cut further. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.” The missile that hit Poland turned out to possibly be an errant output of Ukrainian air defense. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Serg...
Market Commentary: Risk Off but Not Done
Corn and the soy complex shed value today, but wheat was bolstered mostly by poor crop prospects. Perhaps indicative was the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, which was released today instead of Friday due to the holiday. It showed speculators have increased their net short position in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The grain exchanges issued new estimates for new crop wheat production with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange more optimistic at 12.4 MMT, and the Rosario Grain Exchange down at 11.8 MMT. In general, the market appears to be trading based on a 12 MMT crop, with some bears much lower than th...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil price is also unchanged at 69 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is f...
WASDE Corn
USDA forecast U.S. corn production at 13.930 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month on a 0.4-bushel increase in yield to 172.3 bushels per acre. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by prod...
WASDE Wheat
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 775 million bushels - with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchang...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Few Surprises; Wheat Lower as Fund Sells; Cattle Rally Stalled
The November WASDE was largely in-line with expectations and USDA indeed raised the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean yields. Despite the larger crops, carry-out remains tight for both commodities and should be long-term supportive. Soybeans rallied for the day, as much because of news of 462 KMT of e...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Finally, the government announced that export declarations made by exporters for shipments from December to February may be extended for 12 months with no penalty. Export declarations are made for a specific shipping period within which they must shipped to avoid penalties. In this case t...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies with Energy Markets; Corn, Wheat Firm in Late-Week Trade
The CBOT ended the week with gains across the board as stronger energy and palm oil markets supported sharp rallies in soyoil and soybeans. The soy complex has been the surprising leader of the CBOT during a week that, at its outset, looked like it would feature major rallies in wheat and corn...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Strong U.S.Dollar, Weak Macroeconomic Markets
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as the impacts of Russia’s return to the Ukraine export corridor agreement and the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar worked against futures. Corn and wheat continued their selloffs and retreated to values near where they ended last week, while soybeans s...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Lead CBOT Rally on China Policy, Brazil Protests
The CBOT rallied for a second straight day, but this time it was soybeans leading the way. The oilseed market moved higher after rumors surfaced that China could be considering ending its zero-tolerance policy for COVID-19, a move that would boost food, fuel, and soybean demand in the country...
Brazil’s Election Results and Where Ag Trade Policy May Go
Election fever is at high pitch in the U.S. with the Congressional mid-terms just one week from tomorrow. At stake is a likely change in party control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. This comes as the farm bill will be on the docket in 2023. But in Brazil, the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week's rains were good and abundant in some regions but scarce and too late for the wheat crop in others. In the central and northern part of the country, the wheat crop is coming to its end and the rains will not have much effect. In the southern part, the crop still has a long way...
Brazilian Election Bullish
Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro promised continued land development whereas his challenger and the ultimate winner, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, promised to crack down on illegal deforestation. This does not mean agricultural area expansion stops, but it might slow down.&nb...
Market Commentary: Grains Sag on Export Troubles; Markets Focusing on Macroeconomics
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note as the U.S. harvest wraps up and logistics/export challenges remain along the Mississippi River. The U.S. corn and soybean harvests should be 75 and 85 percent finished, respectively, in Monday’s USDA report, minimizing any lingering weather/yield r...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies with Energy Markets; Wheat Firms Amid Choppy Corn/Soy Trade
The CBOT was mixed in moderate trading volume at mid-week with the weeks-old themes of harvest pressure and export issues at the forefront of traders’ minds. Soybeans initially found strength on a strong rally in soyoil, but eventually pared gains as few want to be long amid a slow export...
Market Commentary: Not Pretty
Though they closed higher, volume was down in corn and soybeans and wheat shaved off some more excess value. The truth is there is just not much to move the market right now. The lower value of the dollar plus rising equities and oil provides some outside support but the fundamentals are stable...
Nicaragua Trade Impacts
On Monday, President Biden signed an Executive Order (E.O.) that amends E.O. 13851 (Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Nicaragua). The goal is to “limit the outsized financial benefits of certain trade from flowing to the Ortega-Murillo regime, as warran...
Market Commentary: Grains Sag Despite 2 MMT of Soy Exports; Cattle Rally on COF Implications
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with corn and wheat consolidating after a lackluster export report. Soybeans and soymeal sold off sharply as concerns rise about China’s demand for U.S. soybeans after Chinese President Xi secured a third consecutive term. Moreover, Xi’s a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather The weather was the primary focus for South America’s grain and oilseed markets last week. Argentina’s wheat yields continue to be negatively affected by the ongoing drought, and the summer crop outlook is dimming for the same reason. Different agencies are already estimatin...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower Despite Ethanol Production Jump; Livestock Futures Extend Rally
The CBOT was mostly lower in low volume trade at mid-week with futures largely consolidating within their recent ranges. The exceptions were soyoil and the livestock contracts, both of which rallied sharply for another day. Soyoil found its support from a rally in crude oil while persistent str...
Market Commentary: Livestock Rallies Continue; Grains End Lower on Fund Selling
The CBOT pulled back again on Tuesday with only soyoil and the livestock contracts finding their way to higher ground. Funds continued to liquidate their net long positions in corn and soybeans while extending a short SRW wheat position. Fundamental news that hit the wires Tuesday seemed to all...
Market Commentary: Grains Mixed to Start Week; Livestock Markets Rally Sharply
The CBOT ended mixed in low volume to start the week. The only market to see substantial action was soyoil as a bullish NOPA report and Russian attacks on Ukrainian sunflower oil storage facilities created some buying interest. Wheat and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in quiet volume w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week, the Argentine government, exporters, and wheat millers met to discuss the wheat supply and demand situation. The meeting was only the first of what is expected to be a series of meetings to analyze the wheat situation and the tight supply and demand relationship. No policy meas...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends on Down Note After Export Sales Disappoint
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with corn, soybeans, wheat, and both cattle contracts all posting losses by the closing bell. The only real gainer was the lean hog market, where futures rallied to triple-digit gains on relative strength in the cash market. Trading volume was light acr...
Market Commentary: Makeup Call
What could go right? The stock market and commodity futures both started the trading day glumly observing certain fundamentals: U.S. core inflation in September at 6.6 percent had hit a four-decade high; CPI was at 8.2 percent. It is now sealed that next month the Fed will add another growth s...
Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts Corn, Soy Yields; Wheat Falls on 15-Year Low Stocks Forecast
The October WASDE typically creates volatility in CBOT futures and this year’s reaction to the report was no different. The surprise of the day was lower-than-expected soybean ending stocks, which sent soybean futures rallying back to the $14.00 level. Corn initially saw stiff selling pre...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. soybean production to 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. Due to lower exports offseting by increased crush, ending sto...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. corn production to 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. wheat production based by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million. However, first quarter total disappearance is the lowest since 1983/84 - wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat prices in the local market continue to rise. The fear of drought and a tight supply/demand balance are causing daily increases. Since the beginning of September, prices have risen about $70/MT in the futures market. Rains that fell last week, although always helpful, were insufficie...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Freeze Risks; Miss. River Issues Persist
The CBOT was mostly higher in quiet trade to end the week. Corn and soybean futures moved higher in some technical buying and short-covering due to the expected frost/freeze across the northern and western Corn Belt this weekend. Wheat futures tried to follow corn higher but pared gains heading...
Market Commentary: Lower Follow Through
The market chased the overnight lower closes and accelerated them as the trading day wore on. Exceptions were soyoil and pork, with the latter seeing robust demand both foreign and domestic. There were the usual contenders for bearishness, including the weather, the strong dollar, and harvest i...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm After Two-Sided Trade; Soymeal Breaks Key Support
The CBOT was mixed in quiet, two-sided trade at mid-week. Corn and wheat futures managed to post slight gains after trading both in the green and red while soybeans sank 13 cents lower amid profit taking and some position liquidation. Farm sales of the new corn and soybean crops remains light,...
Macro Market Rally Buoys Corn, Soybeans; Profit Taking Pressures Wheat; Hog Selloff Continues
Once again, macroeconomic markets drove the CBOT’s primary price action, only this time the influence from outside markets was bullish. Overnight, palm oil and energy markets move higher and stock futures pointed to sharp gains, which helped push the CBOT ag markets higher. The day sessio...
Watching Brazil’s Elections
The U.S. mid-term Congressional election is five weeks away; one election that much of agriculture is watching is Brazil’s Presidential race. In the first round of voting – among 11 total candidates – former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) garnered 48.43 percent of...
Market Commentary: CBOT Stabilizes to Start Week; River Draft and Barge Rates Drive Export Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a mixed note with markets attempting to recover from the Grain Stocks report on Friday. Soybeans and the soy complex attempted to form a bottom and move higher and appear to have been somewhat successful in that effort, but only time will tell whether the reversal w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as other exchanges and analysts have done, lowered its wheat crop estimate to 17.5 MMT versus 20.5 MMT in its previous forecast. The reason, of course, is the severe drought causing serious problems for crop development and currently limiting grain filling...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn, Bearish Soybeans; Wheat Rallies on USDA Production Cuts
The CBOT showed the volatility often characteristic of days when the Grain Stocks report is released. The report was bullish corn and wheat and bearish soybeans, and the futures market’s reaction reflected the surprises. Soybeans dropped sharply lower for the day in a massively bearish mo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Macroeconomic Weakness Again; GBP/USD Hits Record Low
The CBOT sold off once again amid pronounced pressure from outside macroeconomic markets. Last week’s Fed interest rate hike – the fastest since the 1970’s – combined with Britian’s new economic policy and the election results in Italy sent macro traders into a sel...
South America’s Fertilizer Situation
Rabobank reports that fertilizer supplies will improve in 2023 with downward pressure on phosphate and potash prices, but nitrogen may see a 20-30 percent price hike. This is an important competitiveness factor for agricultural exporters. North and South America both have abundant supplies of p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The rains that fell across Argentina last week covered a good part of the wheat-growing area, but the accumulated water was very little so soil moistures and the crop conditions continue to worsen. Only 14 percent of the wheat crop was rated good/excellent at the end of last week, down fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Sharply on Macro-Market “Risk Off” Trade and USD Rally
Friday’s trade was less about grain market fundamentals than it was “risk off” trade from a meltdown in financial and energy markets. The U.S. dollar rose 160 bps for the day, which pressured grain futures from an export competitiveness standpoint and corn, wheat, and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Involuntary Movement
When markets reach equilibrium with little new demonstrative information, you get days like today. The trades move up slightly or down a little and look like both sides of nothing. In the old days, this is when pit traders were able to read their latest dense copy of The Economist magazine.&nbs...