Recent Biofuels Analysis
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
E15’s Rube Goldberg Regulations
Last Friday, 19 April, the EPA issued an emergency waiver for E15 to be sold through the summer driving season. The topline takeaway of that action is positive for the ethanol sector, but the practicality of implementing the new rule is more complex. Indeed, the structure of the Cle...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Biofuel Round-Up
E15: It is 9 April; by 1 May terminals that blend gasoline with ethanol need to be in compliance with summer-grade gasoline specifications that are effective on 1 June. The ethanol industry has pressed EPA for another emergency waiver for year-round E15 use in the summer of 2024. EPA did approv...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was unsurprising in that managed money funds were net sellers through Tuesday’s data reporting period, which obviously coincided with the new contract lows in the grain markets. Funds were aggressive net sellers in corn, SRW wheat, and soyoil but were more cautious...
A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels
At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the SRW wheat contract. Equally unsurprising was the net buying by managed money traders in soymeal and soyoil as they’ve largely whittled...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Rhetoric Meets Reality; Miscalculating Renewables; TTC and AI
Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne liked that angle and similarly blamed his country’s retailers for food inflation. Major retailer Carrefour then blamed suppli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Small Refinery Exemptions Under the RFS Back in the Spotlight
A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A court decision in the 5th District Circuit Court brought that topic back to the forefront, and will add more complexity, volatility, and unce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Renewable Diesel as “Regional Diesel”
In 2022, renewable diesel (RD) utilization (based on product supplied) surpassed biodiesel (BD) use. For Q1 of 2023, RD has extended the gap. This is not surprising given the rapid expansion of RD capacity in the past couple of years. What also was expected, but perhaps still slightly surprisi...
EPA Effectively Clears the Board of Pending SREs, Projects Not Approving Future Petitions
The EPA announced on Friday that it denied 26 requests for “small refinery exemptions” (SREs) over the periods of 2016-2018 and 2021-2023. There are still two SRE petitions pending for the 2018 compliance year. SRE’s have been a contentious issue for several years. SREs...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Will EPA Flip Off the Switch for Electric Vehicles Under the RFS?
EPA is facing a 14 June deadline to finish the 2023-2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The date was set by consent decree with the courts. Recall, the proposed RVOs released in November 2022 included electric vehicles (EVs) as part of the overall vo...
EPA’s E15 Waiver for 2023 in Effect Today
On 28 April, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted a waiver for the use of E15 during the 2023 summer driving season, which is 1 June - 15 September. This is under the same regulatory authority as was used in 2022 to address an emergency fuel situation. The Clean Air Ac...
Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight
The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feature more favorable planting conditions for most of the Midwest and Northern Plains in the next few weeks, which helped pressure corn, soybea...
Long Term Energy Outlook: Exporting Ethanol, Importing Biomass Based Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023 – that report is the Department of Energy’s equivalent to USDA’s long term baseline projection. The USDA’s report forecasts out to 2032, while the AEO forecasts to...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA issued a one-year emergency waiver to allow year-round E15 in part to reduce retail gasoline prices in response to supply chain disruptions, t...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages long, and away from the top line summary, there are a few other bits of information worth taking a second look at and putting into context w...
Proposed RVOs: Canola Oil and Electric Vehicles are the Winners
The EPA released the proposed required volume obligations for 2023 through 2025 yesterday. Below is a summary of the proposed volumes by category. The top takeaways: In a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewable die...
American Petroleum Institute Backs Year-Round E15
The American Petroleum Institute (AP), the association of oil drilling, refining, and natural gas producing companies, joined this week in signing a letter to Congress backing a move to grant year-round use of E15. Other signatories to the letter included the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), G...
2023 Biofuel RVOs Delayed from Tomorrow Release
The EPA’s proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for 2023 will not be released tomorrow as was previously expected under the terms of a consent decree, which originally set a date of 16 September. That was later agreed by both parties to be extended to 16 November. Those parties inclu...
King and Queen Pillage the Village
King corn is losing a battle with Queen soybeans, and this has activated the politicians for another round of support. Renewable diesel is projected to increase five-fold from 1 billion to 5 billion gallons by 2026. Almost $2.6 billion is being invested in increased soybean crush capacity to me...
Future of the RFS 2023 and Beyond
2023 marks a major shift in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). From the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act until this year, the annual required volume obligations (RVOs) under the RFS were set by statute; that changes in 2023, and so could the mix of renewable fuels – or at least t...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decree from EPA with the biofuels association Growth Energy who filed a complaint in April over EPA’s failure to promulgate a rule establi...
60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch
In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007 with the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) which expanded those categories. The bottom line is that renewable fuels were schedule...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
EPA’s Final RVO Rule
As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels blending levels for 2021 (retroactively) and 2022 (six months late, and five months into the compliance year). Following is the br...
No 1970’s Analog
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish a so-called soft-landing of the economy back down to a low inflation, modest growth, low unemployment scenario. An increasing number of voices are signaling their skepticism that this can be accomplished. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even concedes...
Dwindling Diesel Stocks, Increasing Demand
Add diesel fuel supplies to market anxieties over shortages and high prices. Diesel hit all-time record prices this week. Both gasoline and diesel rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but in the last two weeks, diesel prices spiked again. And the medium-term outlook remains bu...
Eight State Plan for E15 Equivalent to Adding One Large Ethanol Mill
In April, the Biden Administration’s EPA announced that it would provide a temporary waiver for year-round E15 (see WPI’s article about the immediate market reaction here, and a breakdown of the actual impact here). In the end, the waiver adds about 107 days of more demand for E15 i...
Ethanol Sobriety Check
Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act’s requirements. Ethanol makes sense as an octane booster but less so as a gasoline substitute. Blending at the E15 level is already allow...
Ag Policy Options Being Consider Regarding Russia/Ukraine Situation
As is typical when there is a crisis – from foreign policy issues, to the China trade situation, to animal disease, to COVID, and more – the market gets bombarded with rumors, leaks and speculation about potential emergency policy actions which may – or may not – be take...
Trade Policy Confusion; Energy Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion In its annual report to Congress yesterday on trade relations with China, USTR asserted that, “China has a poor record when it comes to complying with WTO rules” and suggested the Biden Administration is looking for a new strategy to address the Middle Kingdom...
E15 versus EVs
As we wrote just over one year ago, on 1 February 2021, … the general trend of fuel policy is clearly shifting the struggle from how much of the tank is filled with gasoline versus biofuel to a struggle between liquid fuel and alternatives. … Whether the petroleum and biofuels ind...
RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook
Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...
EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade
On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December. The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes. EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...
Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines
Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (RVOs) from EPA. We noted that Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, informed EPA via a 2 November letter of its intent to file suit if...
SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish
President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be in the form of a 32-million-barrel exchange solicitation to be open for bids tomorrow and the accelerating of 18 million-barrel to be sold w...
Where’s the RVO?
The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rural America.” Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, mentioned in her testimony that “We are also a...
October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA
Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after months of rallies and needed to “cool off”. December Paris milling wheat futures were down €3/MT today and pulled back fro...
Bullish Ethanol Production
USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2020, starting the marketing year off in the right direction. Moreover, ethanol production for the week ending 22 October hit 1.106 million b...
Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion
Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that this spending category has been relatively flat for many years. This ignores that fact that private spending on agricultural R&D has bee...
Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO
Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 meeting begins at the end of October in Glasgow. Leaders gathered there will likely review the UN Environment Program’s released Product...
High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs. First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...
Ongoing Biofuel Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels only varies based on assumptions about economic growth and petroleum prices. This projection does...
Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil
After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the August exports were still down about 17 percent from last year and from the previous five-year average for the month. Year-to-date exports (th...
Ag Review - September 2021
For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economics and clients’ needs, this will be our last edition. We will continue to include historical analysis with our successful daily Ag Per...
Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”
There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the attention of industry supporters on Capitol Hill, especially Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). There have been rumors for months that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $12.85/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?
The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and the “potential for a fully zero-carbon aviation sector by 2050.” That would be 3 billion gallons annual use by 2030, and potent...
Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?
The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Friday, the proposal was sent from EPA for review last Thursday. What is in the proposal is still a mystery, however. That differs from last yea...
RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020
We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question was when? We now know the answer: yesterday. There has been...
Biofuel Falters
U.S. biofuel makers are disappointed that U.S. EPA is not more aggressively pushing fuel blending, but their plight is consistent with the pandemic related faltering in global biofuel production. The International Energy Agency (EIA) says that 10 percent annual increases are needed in global bi...
Ball of Confusion: Waiting on RFS Volumes
The EPA will be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question is: when? As of this morning, there is no record of the proposal being sent to OMB for f...
PM Post - Bears Own the Day
THE OPEN Nov beans: 18 lower Dec meal: 4.00 lower Dec soyoil: 96 pts lower Dec corn: 9 lower Dec wheat: 12 lower The markets opened as expected but weaker outside markets, bearish Pro Farmer Crop tour comments, and rains forecasted for the weekend took a toll on th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...
Short Term Energy Outlook: Bullish Biodiesel
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO); the report projects biodiesel production for 2021 to remain at the same level as 2020, which unlike ethanol, was up from 2019. For 2022, biodiesel production is forecast to increase 15 percent over...
GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?
GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...
Long Term Ethanol Question: Electric Vehicles – Fact or Fantasy?
Last week, President Biden issued an executive order as part of his “Build Back Better” initiative that calls for targeting all vehicle sales to reach 50 percent electric vehicles by 2030. Specifically, setting the goal of “half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions...
Ag Review - July 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, competition in the oilseeds market, the outlook of the meat industry, policies surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standards under the Biden Admin...
E15 Legislation Proposed
As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales, and we noted that “biofuels groups have said that “every legal, regulatory and legislative option&...
Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15
The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EPA decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales. This comes on the heels of the Supreme Court ruling on the extension of SRE waivers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; DC Court Rules Against E15; Wheat Decouples from Corn
Note: The CBOT/CME markets are closed Monday, 5 July 2021 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. CBOT trade was expectedly quiet heading into the long U.S. holiday weekend and ended mixed for the day. Corn settled lower with profit taking and more renewable fuels policy drama while soybea...
Ag Review - June 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...
Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps
As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA’s granting of small refinery exemptions (SREs) to meet the renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes. Recall that in January 2020, the 10...
Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending
The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcoming. As of today, however, OMB does not have the proposal listed on its dashboard of regulations under review. The Administration...
RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?
On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. But Friday was also the day that the Administration released its regulatory agenda, which included the following regarding the RFS and biofuel...
RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers
When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political base constituencies, environmentalists and labor. The groups are different than they were for the Trump Administration - agriculture and petrol...
Ag Review - May 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding market demand for ethanol, pork, and poultry, as well as future issues impacting the agriculture sector and the politics surrounding them. You’ll a...
2021 and 2022 RVOs Could be Kept at 2020 Levels
The EPA is floating a trial balloon of maintaining the 2020 RVOs for 2021 and 2022. In April, a group of Senators urged EPA to add 500 million gallons to the ethanol RVO to amend for the 2016 court case that ruled the EPA improperly waived that amount, and to “increase biodiesel, advanced...
Ethanol Price Impact
The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in recovery mode as transportation fuel demand recovers from COVID restrictions that had sent ethanol values last year to a 10-year record low of...
Ethanol Ripple Effects
Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation fuel may force more Brazilian sugar into ethanol production rather than food. The sugar market is very tight on reduced output. U.S. ethano...
Colonial Pipeline Cyber Attack and Biofuels
On Friday, the Colonial Pipeline, which is the largest refined product pipeline in the U.S., running 5,500 miles from Texas to New Jersey, was attacked by ransomware, assumed to be launched by hackers in Russia. The pipeline was forced to close. The company is slowly reopening lateral pipelines...
Ethanol Exports and Domestic Production Rebound
Ethanol exports in March were 133 million gallons and more than a third of that went to China. The 48.3 million gallons exported to China is the second highest monthly total on record, just 8,278 gallons below April 2016. Recall that in 2016, China was the fastest growing market for U.S...
Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics
Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...
RFS Waivers and RINs Prices
On 22 February, we noted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear a challenge to the 10th District Court’s ruling on small refinery exemptions (SREs). In January, the Department of Justice, acting as counsel for the EPA, had requested that the Supreme Court not hear the case and instead...
New EPA Administrator Resetting the RFS Clock
The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to be Administrator of the U.S. EPA this week by a vote of 66-34. Since 2017, Regan has been Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and previously he worked at EPA in the air office. That experience will come in handy as he has to...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; South America Soy; Renewable Diesel
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated there was a rebound in soybean export sales in the week ending 25 February. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also increased last week compared to the previous week. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 334,000 MT for...
Ethanol Corn Use and Outlook
USDA released the January Grain Crushings report yesterday; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 11 percent from January 2020, and down 6 percent from January 2019. Dry mill production of DDGS was 1.7534 MMT during January 2021, 90 percent of last year and 98 percent of December. On the ye...
Ag Review - February 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at policy possibilities in the year ahead, the impact of government spending, world grain stocks, pork demand, climate change, international market analysis and much more. ...
EPA Adopting 10th District Ruling on SREs
The U.S. EPA announced a major change in the agency’s perspective on granting small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the renewable fuel standard. In short, EPA will apply the ruling of the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on granting SREs. Recall that in January...
Electric Vehicles, Political Distrust and Ethanol Demand
Last week, General Motors announced that in an effort to lower its emissions its goal will be to produce 40 percent of its car and light duty vehicles as electric powered. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFS) commented through a statement from CEO Geoff Cooper. I would encourage people to take...
COVID Impact on Ethanol Triggered Thinking on Long Term Ethanol Demand
The current renewable fuel standard (RFS) went into place in 2008 after the legislation was passed in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA); that bill raised the biofuel obligations from the original 2005 Energy Policy Act’s initial RFS. Of course, COVID in 2020 had a major...
Ag Review - December 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at global food supplies, the direction of the diesel market, Russia’s crop production, the future of agribusiness under the new Biden Administration, an analysis of market...
Heads Up: 2021 RVO for Biofuels is Coming
We previously reported that the Trump Administration EPA would likely “punt” on issuing the 2021 required volume obligations (RVOs) rule and leave it to the incoming Biden EPA. Specifically, we speculated that “a retroactive 2021 RVO would be issued next spring/summer” b...
Diesel Market Slowly Returning to Balance
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, at the end of November, U.S. distillate inventories fell to 145.8 million barrels, which was back within the previous five-year (2015–19) range for the first time since 8 May. Diesel demand dropped to its low the most in June and fu...
Ag Review - November 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at the global and local impacts of the recent U.S. election, President-Elect Biden’s trade agenda, fiscal policy and the U.S. federal budget, the challenges of long-term f...
Thanksgiving Week Fuel Demand and Budget Negotiations
Thanksgiving week is typically the biggest travel week of the year, but recent COVID lockdowns following a new spike in cases lowered travel this year. Although air travel was up more than expected last weekend, auto travel was down. Last week was the lowest price for gasoline the week before T...
Biden EPA Could Inherit an Obama-Biden Era RFS Court Ruling
With controversy over small refinery exemptions (SREs), election year political strategies, and COVID, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) never issued the required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 as required under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The statutory deadline is one week fr...
COVID Spike and Ethanol Outlook
The final required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 biofuel blending mandates is due in 17 days; that is a statutory requirement (although missed more than met since 2007 when it was implemented). However, not only has it not been issued, but the proposed rule has also yet to be published by...
Thinking About the Coming Supply of Brazilian DDGS
Back in 2013, under the U.S. sugar program, sugar refiners and processors were headed toward forfeiting more than 350,000 MT of sugar under loan, which triggered the Feedstock Flexibility Program (FFP). That program, created in the 2008 farm bill, requires USDA to purchase surplus sugar (techni...
Gasoline and Ethanol Use Forecast Down for 2021
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cutting ethanol, biodiesel, and gasoline use projections for 2021. EIA’s forecast of actual ethanol blending for 2021 is about 13.92 billion gallons, which is 11 percent of the forecast 126...
Ag Review - September 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue reviews notable changes in agriculture trade, the impact of the 2020 U.S. election on agriculture legislation, China’s potential influence on the election, Brazil's ethanol policy an...
New Gasoline Octane Standard Proposed for Higher Ethanol Blends
Last week, Representative Cheri Bustos (D-Illinois) introduced the Next Generation Fuels Act. The legislation would establish a new 98 octane standard for gasoline and would require that octane sources in motor fuel result in at least a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions com...
Biodiesel, Soyoil Holding up to COVID Better Than to EU Tariffs
The EU has extended its countervailing duties (CVDs) on U.S. biodiesel which was set to expire this month. The duties were put in place in 2009, renewed in 2011, and again in 2015. But earlier this month, the European Biodiesel Board petitioned for an extension citing … sufficient eviden...
EPA Moving Down Biofuels’ Policy Checklist
After last week’s EPA announcement on gap year SREs, the agency updated its actions on the SRE waivers, denying more than 50 petitions. There are still 17 left, but those are the petitions that as of July had not been reviewed by the Department of Energy (DOE). All the retroactive petitio...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured soybeans in early trade. Corn benefited from unwinding of prior long soybeans/short corn spreads and additional export sales announcements...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments
As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance to agricultural processing plants in the event of a public health emergency in order to assure the continuation of markets for agricultural...
Market Commentary
It was a technical runup today that will correct lower but there is a Chinese curveball in play. The fundamentals remain weak – look at today’s Export Sales report. And Tuesday’s WASDE will reinforce this viewpoint. But now China is an interesting side play. The Middle Kingdom...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was slow and mixed for most of Tuesday, with a slight uptick in commercial pricing interest supporting corn, soybean, and SRW wheat values. Funds are thought to have been modest net buyers of corn and soybeans. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report highlighted the raw efficiency wit...
Market Commentary
One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on display this afternoon as the CBOT finished lower despite early morning gains. Demand has thinned in recent days amid the modest CBOT rally, a...
Policy Fallout from COVID-19
The Senate will return to session on Monday. Though the House will not return, debate on a fourth COVID-19 relief package will begin. This likely will be the most contentious bill; all of the basics – unemployment, business lending, food and nutrition programs, and farm payments have all...
Corn Market Challenge
We have commented before about the broad negative impact that the worldwide coronavirus pandemic is having on demand for raw materials ranging from copper and energy to renewable commodity crops such as grain, oilseeds and cotton. This situation, along with the strange decision by the Saudis an...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.145/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Ag Review - April 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the economic downturn and its impact on agriculture demand, what happens as a result of the meat packing plant closures from COVID-19, the shipping problems in Latin America from th...
Lower Fuel Use Reignites RFS Fight
As of last week, according to the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), 73 of the nation’s 200 ethanol plants are idled and 70 percent are operating at reduced capacity. This would imply that 57 are still operating at normal output levels. Those plants have seen their gross margins bounce on...
Similar Transatlantic COVID-19 Impacts
According to the latest Short-term Outlook from the European Commission, the agrifood sector on the Continent has been impacted by the economic shock, lockdown measures and uncertainty in similar ways to its American counterpart. Both have suffered less than other sectors of the economy. Mainte...
Details on the New Coronavirus Food Assistance Program
On Friday as part of the daily White House COVID19 briefing, Secretary Perdue announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP). It will come in two parts; the first will be direct payments to producers totaling $19 billion. The second will be a $3 billion commodity purchase progra...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Food security continues to be the primary market driver for Europe and most other regions around the world. Efforts to increase (at least perceived) food security include export restrictions, sales from government stockpiles, and requests for approval of imports from non-tradition...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher with some mild, continued short covering that eventually gave way to more bearish pressure. Position squaring heading into the April WASDE and the three-day weekend was dominant. Corn received a bearish jolt from the weekly EIA ethanol production report while wheat ended...
Drinking the Kool-Aid
U.S. ethanol production is plunging, and producers are demanding a fix. Some sources say that this week was the lowest ethanol output and highest stocks on record going back to 2010. Ethanol advocate and powerful Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is suggesting USDA/CCC funds could be used to stoc...
EIA Foreshadows WASDE on Ethanol
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today. April is the month that includes a forecast of the peak demand summer driving season fuel use, which runs from April through September. Total gasoline use is forecast to be down b...
Plant Closures – Pork, Beef and Ethanol
Tyson announced today that it has suspended operations at its Columbus Junction, IA pork plant. The closure is COVID-19 related for worker health protection after several contracted the virus. The plant has a capacity of about 10,000 head per day. Last week, total slaughter was 2.56...
Crude Oil and Feedlot Rations
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, efforts are afoot to put a safety net under global crude oil prices. President Trump is communicating with Saudi Arabia and Russia to coordinate a détente in their price and production war, and the so-called OPEC-Plus group, which includes OPEC memb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called mixed/lower to start today and it did just that. Corn and the soy complex were subject to fund selling and broke key technical support points while the wheat market strengthened on news of a Russian export quota. The livestock markets are in complete disarray and swung from...
COVID Domino Effect on Feed Rations and More
The COVID19 outbreak is like a pinball bouncing from sector to sector of the economy. In agriculture, for example, with shutdowns in place, transportation energy use is down, which has reduced ethanol demand, which in turn has reduced the production of DDGS, which in turn is creating a new puzz...
Upcoming RVO as Messy as SRE Issue
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $20.09/gallon, its lowest level since February 2002, and actually dipped below $20.00/gallon during trading. This makes a mess for blending economics for biofuel use. But there is a bigger problem – or two. First, the bearish oil p...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened mixed today with corn and soyoil posting new contract lows amid continued short selling. Commercial demand for wheat pulled that commodity higher and brought in buy wheat/sell corn spread trade. Commercial pricing in corn and the soy complex was notable today as bargain buying c...
Less Bad Situation
As pointed out by WPI contributor Jody Lefcourt, this is only the third time since the year 2000 that corn has been below $3.30/bushel. But agricultural commodity prices have thus far only fallen modestly relative to the scale of the current global disease and economic crisis. Moreover, overall...
Liquid Fuels Relief Request
The Renewable Fuels Association yesterday requested “equitable” relief for the “liquid fuel industries” given the coronavirus and the Russian/Saudi crude oil price war. In a statement, RFA noted: While the policy response to turbulence in the energy markets has so...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; Argentine Soy Exports; Crude Oil Collapse; U.S. PNW Soy
Forecast for Brazil’s Soybean Crop Increased Brazil’s crop supply agency (CONAB) this week increased its forecast for the 2020 Brazilian soybean crop. Its latest forecast is for a crop of 124.205 MMT (4.563 million bushels), up from its February forecast of 123.25 MMT (4.528 billion...
Market Commentary
“Pandemic” is the word of the day. The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus COVID19 outbreak an official pandemic today, which brought no comfort to global markets. The disease is keeping markets extremely volatile and the potential for governments to make economically...
Biofuels Waiting on EPA’s Decision on SREs
Last Thursday at a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the EPA Administrator said that a decision on how EPA would review and grant small refinery exemptions (SREs) would come within “days, not weeks.” The clock is ticking. The review is being driven by a decision of...
Biofuels: SREs and Renewable Diesel Trends
The RINs market reacted to a news story that EPA was planning on being stingy with future small refinery exemptions (SREs). That speculation was addressed by Administrator Wheeler at a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing yesterday. Wheeler said no decisions have been made about the SRE...
China's Tariff Reductions
China announced this morning a list of 696 U.S. products for which importers may apply for a tariff exemption. Importers must apply for the exemption by 2 March, with a particular volume of imports specified in the application. Import volumes above the applied for amount will be subject to the...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a strong note and moved higher for most of the day with the markets posting a mini rally following yesterday’s day of depressed trading. Wheat futures moved higher in a test of old support levels, which helped put a bid under corn as well. Outside markets were higher as...
Oilseed Highlights: NBB Biodiesel Goal; Mato Grosso Soybeans; Argentine Soy Crush
Biodiesel Board Establishes Overly Ambitious Goal This week the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) held its annual meeting. As part of that meeting the organization established a goal of producing 6 billion gallons of biodiesel in the U.S. by 2030 and 15 billion gallons by 2050. Any industry...
Quest for E15
Now that the EPA has promised that at least 15 billion gallons of ethanol will be blended into a total gasoline pool of about 142.4 billion gallons, the trick is how to expand sales of higher blends of ethanol. EIA is forecasting total gasoline consumption in 2020 to increase about...
China Scales Back Ethanol Use Goals
Just as hopes were high for resuming ethanol exports to China under the Phase One deal to be signed this week, China is suspending its national E10 ethanol blending plan which was to be in effect in 2020. While the E10 goal was never realistic – USDA’s FAS post in China estimated mi...
New Year Prediction: More RFS Changes Coming
Two weeks ago, EPA increased the blending requirement for ethanol and biodiesel under its supplemental small refinery exemption (SRE) proposal. More changes, and potentially additional volumes of biofuels, are likely in the new year. EPA has pulled its proposed RFS re-set proposal from OMB, whi...
Ag Review - December 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the trade war impacts, oil and ethanol developments, a potential next cattle ranching frontier, farm proposals and more. ...
Change Ahead For Agriculture
The current political turbulence in Washington dominates the wire service headlines and the attention of op-ed writers. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment against President Trump over the Ukraine affair and a charge of obstruction of Congress. This i...
RVO Countdown
Friday of this week could be EPA’s release date for the final rule on the 2020 required volume obligations (RVO). That rule would include the small refinery offset language proposed by EPA in October. The rule was sent from EPA to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on 6 December; O...
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in recent years illegal. Apparently, the American Petroleum Institute (API) agrees. In comments filedlate last week on EPA’s proposed...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil was down about $3.00 per barrel, gasoline down more than $0.08 per gallon and diesel about $0.07 per gallon. Ethanol followed, with the Janu...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). According to RFA’s survey of manufacturers’ owners’ manuals for automakers responsible for 95 percent of...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’s dictate on how they farm, and the Trump Administration is challenging the state on at least two fronts: the imposition of its own stiffer...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption, a review of the Department of Commerce’s international trade report and what it might tell us about the U.S. economy, an overview of...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret Waivers” about the small refinery exemption (SRE) process. Specifically, the hearing focused on a legislative proposal sponsored by Hou...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplement to the 2020 required volume obligations (RVOs). Both industries have reacted negatively and RINs prices have dropped, but the plan is un...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry and seafood, pushed up food inflation in September to its highest level since October 2011. Back in 2011, China was going through a maj...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the amount of SRE’s exempted in a program year by using as a reference the past three years’ volumes recommended by the Department of...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however, as we reported on Tuesday of this week, it is more likely that EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out...
Market Commentary
Trading started out on a firmer note before bulls backed off and let prices drift lower into the close. The trade is cautious of being too bullish about the October WASDE, having projected bullish statistics for almost every report this summer, only to have USDA release big crop/big stocks numb...
Ethanol Increase: More Art than Science
EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out at 15 billion gallons; that is the latest word on the new biofuels package proposed by the Administration according to commentary from EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. The 2020 RVOs have been a political hot potato for...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the current political situation on key policy issues and the markets. First, the easier to grasp matters, are the recent data releases. Yesterday, USD...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic disagreement in what the problem is. The biofuels industry argues that the small refinery exemptions (SRE) have caused “demand destruct...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial drawing board, and rest assured it is overlaid with a giant electoral map. If the plan’s fate does come down to raw electoral...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybeans in Parana and states in the Center West. That, in turn, allowed for an early harvest and earlier plantings of corn in the dry season. Thi...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers elsewhere in the world since China’s huge corn stocks keep global prices depressed. However, now Wu Tianlong of the quasi-governmental...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here). After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat with the Trump administration while attempting to show strength in advance of the 70th anniversary recognizing the founding of the People&rsq...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration is promising to boost ethanol use, via a tweet from President Trump “The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue’s statement, but with the Trump administration actively looking to help farmers, there are few traders w...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progress/overall success/exit strategy with respect to the trade dispute with President Xi and China revealed just how boxed in the hardliners in...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for E15 that effectively prevented the market from taking advantage, and, of course, the small refinery waivers. But, another factor has...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb. ($1.35/lb.) as of 14 August, a weekly gain of RMB 1.71/kg ($0.24/kg) or RMB 0.78/lb. ($0.11/lb.) that was the largest so far in 2019. It pu...
Trade, Ethanol, and Politics
In gearing up for agriculture and ag policy, the 2020 election cycle is being looked at through the prism of politics. Typically, the farm vote is reliably Republican. Aimpoint Research, in collaboration with Agri-Pulse Communications and the American Farm Bureau Federation, conducted a poll du...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Ethanol’s Uphill Fight
U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is accustomed to attacks from environmentalists, but attacks by farmers over the agency’s small refinery exemptions (SREs) from the ethanol blend requirement has exposed the soft underbelly of the Trump administration. The number of waivers has increa...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astounding 9.1 percent last month versus July 2018. Monthly food costs have not risen at this pace since January 2012, when China’s economy...
Ethanol, Pesticides and Politics
The EPA announced late Friday that it had granted 31 small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2018, bringing the total number to 7.4 percent of the overall 19.29-billion-gallon required biofuel volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). By comparison, the 2017 SREs were 9.4 percent...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Focus on New Products/Markets
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Supply Bulls, Demand Bears
Current grain and soy futures markets remind us of two old market clichés. The first is, “bears make money, bulls make money, but hogs get slaughtered.” The second is, “you never go broke taking a profit.” It appears that some fund managers may have forgotten or i...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Ethanol Use up Slightly, But Not Enough
The EPA published the 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for ethanol and biodiesel in today’s Federal Register, an unusually long lag after publically releasing the pre-publication announcement on 5 July. It will hold a public stakeholder hearing this Wednesday on the RVOs in Ypsilan...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw notably firmer prices with corn up 4 ¼ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents ,and SRW wheat up 8 cents. Forecasts for another heatwave across Europe (just as the region’s corn enters pollination and its spring wheat continues developing) were concerning, prompti...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the retroactive extension of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The most likely time frame for action on either appears to be in the fourth quarter o...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs for Fifth Straight Week With feed demand continuing to soften as more previously unidentified African swine fever (ASF) cases come to light, soybean inventories rose again to reach 924,700 MT as of 5 July 2019. That was 29,700 MT (+3.3 percent) higher than the...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-based molasses has superior nutritional qualities and has historically earned a premium. USDA pricing from more than a decade ago shows a 50...
Ethanol Facing Structural Changes in Liquid Fuel Market
The old saying “can’t see the forest for the trees” may be apt for the ethanol outlook for the next few years. Indeed, there’s been a great deal of looking at such trees as year-round E15 usage, small refinery wavers, the 2020 required volumes, and the upcoming Renewable...
EPA Announces 2020 Biofuel Volumes
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler signed the agency’s proposed 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) today, which will be published next week in the Federal Register and be open for public comments. The EPA will also hold a public hearing on the pro...
Ethanol Margins Low, Politics High
USDA released its Grain Crushing and Co-Production report today; total ethanol use of corn in May was 460 million bushels, which stands at 104 percent of April but 98 percent from the same period last year. DDGS production was 1.94 million tons. Corn gluten feed production from wet...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Meat Imports Surge in May as Domestic Shortfall Increases Monthly data from China’s Customs Bureau shows that total meat and offal imports hit a record high of 556,276 MT in May, up 45 percent from 383,639 MT in May 2018.This was driven by the ongoing impact of African swine fev...
Biodiesel Tax Credit and RFS Volumes with Some Surprises
The House Ways and Means Committee completed action on a tax extender package last Thursday night. It includes a three-year extension of the $1/gallon tax credit for biodiesel blending that matches the language already introduced in the Senate, meaning this will probably move through a House-Se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Ethanol Margins Squeezed Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Ethanol production ended May at a pace of 1.044 million barrels per day (bpd), which was the lowest level in a month after the buildup for the summer driving season. However, it also left stocks at their second highest level on record for that month. Crude oil stocks increased early in May and...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
E15’s Rube Goldberg Regulations
Last Friday, 19 April, the EPA issued an emergency waiver for E15 to be sold through the summer driving season. The topline takeaway of that action is positive for the ethanol sector, but the practicality of implementing the new rule is more complex. Indeed, the structure of the Cle...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Biofuel Round-Up
E15: It is 9 April; by 1 May terminals that blend gasoline with ethanol need to be in compliance with summer-grade gasoline specifications that are effective on 1 June. The ethanol industry has pressed EPA for another emergency waiver for year-round E15 use in the summer of 2024. EPA did approv...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was unsurprising in that managed money funds were net sellers through Tuesday’s data reporting period, which obviously coincided with the new contract lows in the grain markets. Funds were aggressive net sellers in corn, SRW wheat, and soyoil but were more cautious...
A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels
At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the SRW wheat contract. Equally unsurprising was the net buying by managed money traders in soymeal and soyoil as they’ve largely whittled...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Rhetoric Meets Reality; Miscalculating Renewables; TTC and AI
Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne liked that angle and similarly blamed his country’s retailers for food inflation. Major retailer Carrefour then blamed suppli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Small Refinery Exemptions Under the RFS Back in the Spotlight
A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A court decision in the 5th District Circuit Court brought that topic back to the forefront, and will add more complexity, volatility, and unce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Renewable Diesel as “Regional Diesel”
In 2022, renewable diesel (RD) utilization (based on product supplied) surpassed biodiesel (BD) use. For Q1 of 2023, RD has extended the gap. This is not surprising given the rapid expansion of RD capacity in the past couple of years. What also was expected, but perhaps still slightly surprisi...
EPA Effectively Clears the Board of Pending SREs, Projects Not Approving Future Petitions
The EPA announced on Friday that it denied 26 requests for “small refinery exemptions” (SREs) over the periods of 2016-2018 and 2021-2023. There are still two SRE petitions pending for the 2018 compliance year. SRE’s have been a contentious issue for several years. SREs...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Will EPA Flip Off the Switch for Electric Vehicles Under the RFS?
EPA is facing a 14 June deadline to finish the 2023-2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The date was set by consent decree with the courts. Recall, the proposed RVOs released in November 2022 included electric vehicles (EVs) as part of the overall vo...
EPA’s E15 Waiver for 2023 in Effect Today
On 28 April, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted a waiver for the use of E15 during the 2023 summer driving season, which is 1 June - 15 September. This is under the same regulatory authority as was used in 2022 to address an emergency fuel situation. The Clean Air Ac...
Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight
The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feature more favorable planting conditions for most of the Midwest and Northern Plains in the next few weeks, which helped pressure corn, soybea...
Long Term Energy Outlook: Exporting Ethanol, Importing Biomass Based Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023 – that report is the Department of Energy’s equivalent to USDA’s long term baseline projection. The USDA’s report forecasts out to 2032, while the AEO forecasts to...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA issued a one-year emergency waiver to allow year-round E15 in part to reduce retail gasoline prices in response to supply chain disruptions, t...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages long, and away from the top line summary, there are a few other bits of information worth taking a second look at and putting into context w...
Proposed RVOs: Canola Oil and Electric Vehicles are the Winners
The EPA released the proposed required volume obligations for 2023 through 2025 yesterday. Below is a summary of the proposed volumes by category. The top takeaways: In a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewable die...
American Petroleum Institute Backs Year-Round E15
The American Petroleum Institute (AP), the association of oil drilling, refining, and natural gas producing companies, joined this week in signing a letter to Congress backing a move to grant year-round use of E15. Other signatories to the letter included the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), G...
2023 Biofuel RVOs Delayed from Tomorrow Release
The EPA’s proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for 2023 will not be released tomorrow as was previously expected under the terms of a consent decree, which originally set a date of 16 September. That was later agreed by both parties to be extended to 16 November. Those parties inclu...
King and Queen Pillage the Village
King corn is losing a battle with Queen soybeans, and this has activated the politicians for another round of support. Renewable diesel is projected to increase five-fold from 1 billion to 5 billion gallons by 2026. Almost $2.6 billion is being invested in increased soybean crush capacity to me...
Future of the RFS 2023 and Beyond
2023 marks a major shift in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). From the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act until this year, the annual required volume obligations (RVOs) under the RFS were set by statute; that changes in 2023, and so could the mix of renewable fuels – or at least t...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decree from EPA with the biofuels association Growth Energy who filed a complaint in April over EPA’s failure to promulgate a rule establi...
60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch
In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007 with the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) which expanded those categories. The bottom line is that renewable fuels were schedule...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
EPA’s Final RVO Rule
As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels blending levels for 2021 (retroactively) and 2022 (six months late, and five months into the compliance year). Following is the br...
No 1970’s Analog
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish a so-called soft-landing of the economy back down to a low inflation, modest growth, low unemployment scenario. An increasing number of voices are signaling their skepticism that this can be accomplished. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even concedes...
Dwindling Diesel Stocks, Increasing Demand
Add diesel fuel supplies to market anxieties over shortages and high prices. Diesel hit all-time record prices this week. Both gasoline and diesel rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but in the last two weeks, diesel prices spiked again. And the medium-term outlook remains bu...
Eight State Plan for E15 Equivalent to Adding One Large Ethanol Mill
In April, the Biden Administration’s EPA announced that it would provide a temporary waiver for year-round E15 (see WPI’s article about the immediate market reaction here, and a breakdown of the actual impact here). In the end, the waiver adds about 107 days of more demand for E15 i...
Ethanol Sobriety Check
Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act’s requirements. Ethanol makes sense as an octane booster but less so as a gasoline substitute. Blending at the E15 level is already allow...
Ag Policy Options Being Consider Regarding Russia/Ukraine Situation
As is typical when there is a crisis – from foreign policy issues, to the China trade situation, to animal disease, to COVID, and more – the market gets bombarded with rumors, leaks and speculation about potential emergency policy actions which may – or may not – be take...
Trade Policy Confusion; Energy Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion In its annual report to Congress yesterday on trade relations with China, USTR asserted that, “China has a poor record when it comes to complying with WTO rules” and suggested the Biden Administration is looking for a new strategy to address the Middle Kingdom...
E15 versus EVs
As we wrote just over one year ago, on 1 February 2021, … the general trend of fuel policy is clearly shifting the struggle from how much of the tank is filled with gasoline versus biofuel to a struggle between liquid fuel and alternatives. … Whether the petroleum and biofuels ind...
RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook
Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...
EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade
On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December. The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes. EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...
Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines
Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (RVOs) from EPA. We noted that Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, informed EPA via a 2 November letter of its intent to file suit if...
SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish
President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be in the form of a 32-million-barrel exchange solicitation to be open for bids tomorrow and the accelerating of 18 million-barrel to be sold w...
Where’s the RVO?
The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rural America.” Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, mentioned in her testimony that “We are also a...
October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA
Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after months of rallies and needed to “cool off”. December Paris milling wheat futures were down €3/MT today and pulled back fro...
Bullish Ethanol Production
USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2020, starting the marketing year off in the right direction. Moreover, ethanol production for the week ending 22 October hit 1.106 million b...
Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion
Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that this spending category has been relatively flat for many years. This ignores that fact that private spending on agricultural R&D has bee...
Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO
Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 meeting begins at the end of October in Glasgow. Leaders gathered there will likely review the UN Environment Program’s released Product...
High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs. First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...
Ongoing Biofuel Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels only varies based on assumptions about economic growth and petroleum prices. This projection does...
Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil
After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the August exports were still down about 17 percent from last year and from the previous five-year average for the month. Year-to-date exports (th...
Ag Review - September 2021
For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economics and clients’ needs, this will be our last edition. We will continue to include historical analysis with our successful daily Ag Per...
Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”
There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the attention of industry supporters on Capitol Hill, especially Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). There have been rumors for months that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $12.85/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?
The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and the “potential for a fully zero-carbon aviation sector by 2050.” That would be 3 billion gallons annual use by 2030, and potent...
Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?
The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Friday, the proposal was sent from EPA for review last Thursday. What is in the proposal is still a mystery, however. That differs from last yea...
RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020
We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question was when? We now know the answer: yesterday. There has been...
Biofuel Falters
U.S. biofuel makers are disappointed that U.S. EPA is not more aggressively pushing fuel blending, but their plight is consistent with the pandemic related faltering in global biofuel production. The International Energy Agency (EIA) says that 10 percent annual increases are needed in global bi...
Ball of Confusion: Waiting on RFS Volumes
The EPA will be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question is: when? As of this morning, there is no record of the proposal being sent to OMB for f...
PM Post - Bears Own the Day
THE OPEN Nov beans: 18 lower Dec meal: 4.00 lower Dec soyoil: 96 pts lower Dec corn: 9 lower Dec wheat: 12 lower The markets opened as expected but weaker outside markets, bearish Pro Farmer Crop tour comments, and rains forecasted for the weekend took a toll on th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...
Short Term Energy Outlook: Bullish Biodiesel
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO); the report projects biodiesel production for 2021 to remain at the same level as 2020, which unlike ethanol, was up from 2019. For 2022, biodiesel production is forecast to increase 15 percent over...
GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?
GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...
Long Term Ethanol Question: Electric Vehicles – Fact or Fantasy?
Last week, President Biden issued an executive order as part of his “Build Back Better” initiative that calls for targeting all vehicle sales to reach 50 percent electric vehicles by 2030. Specifically, setting the goal of “half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions...
Ag Review - July 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, competition in the oilseeds market, the outlook of the meat industry, policies surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standards under the Biden Admin...
E15 Legislation Proposed
As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales, and we noted that “biofuels groups have said that “every legal, regulatory and legislative option&...
Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15
The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EPA decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales. This comes on the heels of the Supreme Court ruling on the extension of SRE waivers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; DC Court Rules Against E15; Wheat Decouples from Corn
Note: The CBOT/CME markets are closed Monday, 5 July 2021 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. CBOT trade was expectedly quiet heading into the long U.S. holiday weekend and ended mixed for the day. Corn settled lower with profit taking and more renewable fuels policy drama while soybea...
Ag Review - June 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...
Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps
As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA’s granting of small refinery exemptions (SREs) to meet the renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes. Recall that in January 2020, the 10...
Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending
The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcoming. As of today, however, OMB does not have the proposal listed on its dashboard of regulations under review. The Administration...
RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?
On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. But Friday was also the day that the Administration released its regulatory agenda, which included the following regarding the RFS and biofuel...
RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers
When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political base constituencies, environmentalists and labor. The groups are different than they were for the Trump Administration - agriculture and petrol...
Ag Review - May 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding market demand for ethanol, pork, and poultry, as well as future issues impacting the agriculture sector and the politics surrounding them. You’ll a...
2021 and 2022 RVOs Could be Kept at 2020 Levels
The EPA is floating a trial balloon of maintaining the 2020 RVOs for 2021 and 2022. In April, a group of Senators urged EPA to add 500 million gallons to the ethanol RVO to amend for the 2016 court case that ruled the EPA improperly waived that amount, and to “increase biodiesel, advanced...
Ethanol Price Impact
The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in recovery mode as transportation fuel demand recovers from COVID restrictions that had sent ethanol values last year to a 10-year record low of...
Ethanol Ripple Effects
Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation fuel may force more Brazilian sugar into ethanol production rather than food. The sugar market is very tight on reduced output. U.S. ethano...
Colonial Pipeline Cyber Attack and Biofuels
On Friday, the Colonial Pipeline, which is the largest refined product pipeline in the U.S., running 5,500 miles from Texas to New Jersey, was attacked by ransomware, assumed to be launched by hackers in Russia. The pipeline was forced to close. The company is slowly reopening lateral pipelines...
Ethanol Exports and Domestic Production Rebound
Ethanol exports in March were 133 million gallons and more than a third of that went to China. The 48.3 million gallons exported to China is the second highest monthly total on record, just 8,278 gallons below April 2016. Recall that in 2016, China was the fastest growing market for U.S...
Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics
Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...
RFS Waivers and RINs Prices
On 22 February, we noted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear a challenge to the 10th District Court’s ruling on small refinery exemptions (SREs). In January, the Department of Justice, acting as counsel for the EPA, had requested that the Supreme Court not hear the case and instead...
New EPA Administrator Resetting the RFS Clock
The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to be Administrator of the U.S. EPA this week by a vote of 66-34. Since 2017, Regan has been Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and previously he worked at EPA in the air office. That experience will come in handy as he has to...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; South America Soy; Renewable Diesel
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated there was a rebound in soybean export sales in the week ending 25 February. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also increased last week compared to the previous week. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 334,000 MT for...
Ethanol Corn Use and Outlook
USDA released the January Grain Crushings report yesterday; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 11 percent from January 2020, and down 6 percent from January 2019. Dry mill production of DDGS was 1.7534 MMT during January 2021, 90 percent of last year and 98 percent of December. On the ye...
Ag Review - February 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at policy possibilities in the year ahead, the impact of government spending, world grain stocks, pork demand, climate change, international market analysis and much more. ...
EPA Adopting 10th District Ruling on SREs
The U.S. EPA announced a major change in the agency’s perspective on granting small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the renewable fuel standard. In short, EPA will apply the ruling of the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on granting SREs. Recall that in January...
Electric Vehicles, Political Distrust and Ethanol Demand
Last week, General Motors announced that in an effort to lower its emissions its goal will be to produce 40 percent of its car and light duty vehicles as electric powered. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFS) commented through a statement from CEO Geoff Cooper. I would encourage people to take...
COVID Impact on Ethanol Triggered Thinking on Long Term Ethanol Demand
The current renewable fuel standard (RFS) went into place in 2008 after the legislation was passed in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA); that bill raised the biofuel obligations from the original 2005 Energy Policy Act’s initial RFS. Of course, COVID in 2020 had a major...
Ag Review - December 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at global food supplies, the direction of the diesel market, Russia’s crop production, the future of agribusiness under the new Biden Administration, an analysis of market...
Heads Up: 2021 RVO for Biofuels is Coming
We previously reported that the Trump Administration EPA would likely “punt” on issuing the 2021 required volume obligations (RVOs) rule and leave it to the incoming Biden EPA. Specifically, we speculated that “a retroactive 2021 RVO would be issued next spring/summer” b...
Diesel Market Slowly Returning to Balance
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, at the end of November, U.S. distillate inventories fell to 145.8 million barrels, which was back within the previous five-year (2015–19) range for the first time since 8 May. Diesel demand dropped to its low the most in June and fu...
Ag Review - November 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at the global and local impacts of the recent U.S. election, President-Elect Biden’s trade agenda, fiscal policy and the U.S. federal budget, the challenges of long-term f...
Thanksgiving Week Fuel Demand and Budget Negotiations
Thanksgiving week is typically the biggest travel week of the year, but recent COVID lockdowns following a new spike in cases lowered travel this year. Although air travel was up more than expected last weekend, auto travel was down. Last week was the lowest price for gasoline the week before T...
Biden EPA Could Inherit an Obama-Biden Era RFS Court Ruling
With controversy over small refinery exemptions (SREs), election year political strategies, and COVID, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) never issued the required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 as required under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The statutory deadline is one week fr...
COVID Spike and Ethanol Outlook
The final required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 biofuel blending mandates is due in 17 days; that is a statutory requirement (although missed more than met since 2007 when it was implemented). However, not only has it not been issued, but the proposed rule has also yet to be published by...
Thinking About the Coming Supply of Brazilian DDGS
Back in 2013, under the U.S. sugar program, sugar refiners and processors were headed toward forfeiting more than 350,000 MT of sugar under loan, which triggered the Feedstock Flexibility Program (FFP). That program, created in the 2008 farm bill, requires USDA to purchase surplus sugar (techni...
Gasoline and Ethanol Use Forecast Down for 2021
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cutting ethanol, biodiesel, and gasoline use projections for 2021. EIA’s forecast of actual ethanol blending for 2021 is about 13.92 billion gallons, which is 11 percent of the forecast 126...
Ag Review - September 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue reviews notable changes in agriculture trade, the impact of the 2020 U.S. election on agriculture legislation, China’s potential influence on the election, Brazil's ethanol policy an...
New Gasoline Octane Standard Proposed for Higher Ethanol Blends
Last week, Representative Cheri Bustos (D-Illinois) introduced the Next Generation Fuels Act. The legislation would establish a new 98 octane standard for gasoline and would require that octane sources in motor fuel result in at least a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions com...
Biodiesel, Soyoil Holding up to COVID Better Than to EU Tariffs
The EU has extended its countervailing duties (CVDs) on U.S. biodiesel which was set to expire this month. The duties were put in place in 2009, renewed in 2011, and again in 2015. But earlier this month, the European Biodiesel Board petitioned for an extension citing … sufficient eviden...
EPA Moving Down Biofuels’ Policy Checklist
After last week’s EPA announcement on gap year SREs, the agency updated its actions on the SRE waivers, denying more than 50 petitions. There are still 17 left, but those are the petitions that as of July had not been reviewed by the Department of Energy (DOE). All the retroactive petitio...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured soybeans in early trade. Corn benefited from unwinding of prior long soybeans/short corn spreads and additional export sales announcements...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments
As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance to agricultural processing plants in the event of a public health emergency in order to assure the continuation of markets for agricultural...
Market Commentary
It was a technical runup today that will correct lower but there is a Chinese curveball in play. The fundamentals remain weak – look at today’s Export Sales report. And Tuesday’s WASDE will reinforce this viewpoint. But now China is an interesting side play. The Middle Kingdom...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was slow and mixed for most of Tuesday, with a slight uptick in commercial pricing interest supporting corn, soybean, and SRW wheat values. Funds are thought to have been modest net buyers of corn and soybeans. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report highlighted the raw efficiency wit...
Market Commentary
One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on display this afternoon as the CBOT finished lower despite early morning gains. Demand has thinned in recent days amid the modest CBOT rally, a...
Policy Fallout from COVID-19
The Senate will return to session on Monday. Though the House will not return, debate on a fourth COVID-19 relief package will begin. This likely will be the most contentious bill; all of the basics – unemployment, business lending, food and nutrition programs, and farm payments have all...
Corn Market Challenge
We have commented before about the broad negative impact that the worldwide coronavirus pandemic is having on demand for raw materials ranging from copper and energy to renewable commodity crops such as grain, oilseeds and cotton. This situation, along with the strange decision by the Saudis an...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.145/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Ag Review - April 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the economic downturn and its impact on agriculture demand, what happens as a result of the meat packing plant closures from COVID-19, the shipping problems in Latin America from th...
Lower Fuel Use Reignites RFS Fight
As of last week, according to the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), 73 of the nation’s 200 ethanol plants are idled and 70 percent are operating at reduced capacity. This would imply that 57 are still operating at normal output levels. Those plants have seen their gross margins bounce on...
Similar Transatlantic COVID-19 Impacts
According to the latest Short-term Outlook from the European Commission, the agrifood sector on the Continent has been impacted by the economic shock, lockdown measures and uncertainty in similar ways to its American counterpart. Both have suffered less than other sectors of the economy. Mainte...
Details on the New Coronavirus Food Assistance Program
On Friday as part of the daily White House COVID19 briefing, Secretary Perdue announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP). It will come in two parts; the first will be direct payments to producers totaling $19 billion. The second will be a $3 billion commodity purchase progra...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Food security continues to be the primary market driver for Europe and most other regions around the world. Efforts to increase (at least perceived) food security include export restrictions, sales from government stockpiles, and requests for approval of imports from non-tradition...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher with some mild, continued short covering that eventually gave way to more bearish pressure. Position squaring heading into the April WASDE and the three-day weekend was dominant. Corn received a bearish jolt from the weekly EIA ethanol production report while wheat ended...
Drinking the Kool-Aid
U.S. ethanol production is plunging, and producers are demanding a fix. Some sources say that this week was the lowest ethanol output and highest stocks on record going back to 2010. Ethanol advocate and powerful Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is suggesting USDA/CCC funds could be used to stoc...
EIA Foreshadows WASDE on Ethanol
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today. April is the month that includes a forecast of the peak demand summer driving season fuel use, which runs from April through September. Total gasoline use is forecast to be down b...
Plant Closures – Pork, Beef and Ethanol
Tyson announced today that it has suspended operations at its Columbus Junction, IA pork plant. The closure is COVID-19 related for worker health protection after several contracted the virus. The plant has a capacity of about 10,000 head per day. Last week, total slaughter was 2.56...
Crude Oil and Feedlot Rations
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, efforts are afoot to put a safety net under global crude oil prices. President Trump is communicating with Saudi Arabia and Russia to coordinate a détente in their price and production war, and the so-called OPEC-Plus group, which includes OPEC memb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called mixed/lower to start today and it did just that. Corn and the soy complex were subject to fund selling and broke key technical support points while the wheat market strengthened on news of a Russian export quota. The livestock markets are in complete disarray and swung from...
COVID Domino Effect on Feed Rations and More
The COVID19 outbreak is like a pinball bouncing from sector to sector of the economy. In agriculture, for example, with shutdowns in place, transportation energy use is down, which has reduced ethanol demand, which in turn has reduced the production of DDGS, which in turn is creating a new puzz...
Upcoming RVO as Messy as SRE Issue
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $20.09/gallon, its lowest level since February 2002, and actually dipped below $20.00/gallon during trading. This makes a mess for blending economics for biofuel use. But there is a bigger problem – or two. First, the bearish oil p...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened mixed today with corn and soyoil posting new contract lows amid continued short selling. Commercial demand for wheat pulled that commodity higher and brought in buy wheat/sell corn spread trade. Commercial pricing in corn and the soy complex was notable today as bargain buying c...
Less Bad Situation
As pointed out by WPI contributor Jody Lefcourt, this is only the third time since the year 2000 that corn has been below $3.30/bushel. But agricultural commodity prices have thus far only fallen modestly relative to the scale of the current global disease and economic crisis. Moreover, overall...
Liquid Fuels Relief Request
The Renewable Fuels Association yesterday requested “equitable” relief for the “liquid fuel industries” given the coronavirus and the Russian/Saudi crude oil price war. In a statement, RFA noted: While the policy response to turbulence in the energy markets has so...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; Argentine Soy Exports; Crude Oil Collapse; U.S. PNW Soy
Forecast for Brazil’s Soybean Crop Increased Brazil’s crop supply agency (CONAB) this week increased its forecast for the 2020 Brazilian soybean crop. Its latest forecast is for a crop of 124.205 MMT (4.563 million bushels), up from its February forecast of 123.25 MMT (4.528 billion...
Market Commentary
“Pandemic” is the word of the day. The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus COVID19 outbreak an official pandemic today, which brought no comfort to global markets. The disease is keeping markets extremely volatile and the potential for governments to make economically...
Biofuels Waiting on EPA’s Decision on SREs
Last Thursday at a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the EPA Administrator said that a decision on how EPA would review and grant small refinery exemptions (SREs) would come within “days, not weeks.” The clock is ticking. The review is being driven by a decision of...
Biofuels: SREs and Renewable Diesel Trends
The RINs market reacted to a news story that EPA was planning on being stingy with future small refinery exemptions (SREs). That speculation was addressed by Administrator Wheeler at a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing yesterday. Wheeler said no decisions have been made about the SRE...
China's Tariff Reductions
China announced this morning a list of 696 U.S. products for which importers may apply for a tariff exemption. Importers must apply for the exemption by 2 March, with a particular volume of imports specified in the application. Import volumes above the applied for amount will be subject to the...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a strong note and moved higher for most of the day with the markets posting a mini rally following yesterday’s day of depressed trading. Wheat futures moved higher in a test of old support levels, which helped put a bid under corn as well. Outside markets were higher as...
Oilseed Highlights: NBB Biodiesel Goal; Mato Grosso Soybeans; Argentine Soy Crush
Biodiesel Board Establishes Overly Ambitious Goal This week the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) held its annual meeting. As part of that meeting the organization established a goal of producing 6 billion gallons of biodiesel in the U.S. by 2030 and 15 billion gallons by 2050. Any industry...
Quest for E15
Now that the EPA has promised that at least 15 billion gallons of ethanol will be blended into a total gasoline pool of about 142.4 billion gallons, the trick is how to expand sales of higher blends of ethanol. EIA is forecasting total gasoline consumption in 2020 to increase about...
China Scales Back Ethanol Use Goals
Just as hopes were high for resuming ethanol exports to China under the Phase One deal to be signed this week, China is suspending its national E10 ethanol blending plan which was to be in effect in 2020. While the E10 goal was never realistic – USDA’s FAS post in China estimated mi...
New Year Prediction: More RFS Changes Coming
Two weeks ago, EPA increased the blending requirement for ethanol and biodiesel under its supplemental small refinery exemption (SRE) proposal. More changes, and potentially additional volumes of biofuels, are likely in the new year. EPA has pulled its proposed RFS re-set proposal from OMB, whi...
Ag Review - December 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the trade war impacts, oil and ethanol developments, a potential next cattle ranching frontier, farm proposals and more. ...
Change Ahead For Agriculture
The current political turbulence in Washington dominates the wire service headlines and the attention of op-ed writers. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment against President Trump over the Ukraine affair and a charge of obstruction of Congress. This i...
RVO Countdown
Friday of this week could be EPA’s release date for the final rule on the 2020 required volume obligations (RVO). That rule would include the small refinery offset language proposed by EPA in October. The rule was sent from EPA to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on 6 December; O...
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in recent years illegal. Apparently, the American Petroleum Institute (API) agrees. In comments filedlate last week on EPA’s proposed...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil was down about $3.00 per barrel, gasoline down more than $0.08 per gallon and diesel about $0.07 per gallon. Ethanol followed, with the Janu...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). According to RFA’s survey of manufacturers’ owners’ manuals for automakers responsible for 95 percent of...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’s dictate on how they farm, and the Trump Administration is challenging the state on at least two fronts: the imposition of its own stiffer...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption, a review of the Department of Commerce’s international trade report and what it might tell us about the U.S. economy, an overview of...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret Waivers” about the small refinery exemption (SRE) process. Specifically, the hearing focused on a legislative proposal sponsored by Hou...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplement to the 2020 required volume obligations (RVOs). Both industries have reacted negatively and RINs prices have dropped, but the plan is un...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry and seafood, pushed up food inflation in September to its highest level since October 2011. Back in 2011, China was going through a maj...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the amount of SRE’s exempted in a program year by using as a reference the past three years’ volumes recommended by the Department of...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however, as we reported on Tuesday of this week, it is more likely that EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out...
Market Commentary
Trading started out on a firmer note before bulls backed off and let prices drift lower into the close. The trade is cautious of being too bullish about the October WASDE, having projected bullish statistics for almost every report this summer, only to have USDA release big crop/big stocks numb...
Ethanol Increase: More Art than Science
EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out at 15 billion gallons; that is the latest word on the new biofuels package proposed by the Administration according to commentary from EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. The 2020 RVOs have been a political hot potato for...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the current political situation on key policy issues and the markets. First, the easier to grasp matters, are the recent data releases. Yesterday, USD...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic disagreement in what the problem is. The biofuels industry argues that the small refinery exemptions (SRE) have caused “demand destruct...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial drawing board, and rest assured it is overlaid with a giant electoral map. If the plan’s fate does come down to raw electoral...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybeans in Parana and states in the Center West. That, in turn, allowed for an early harvest and earlier plantings of corn in the dry season. Thi...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers elsewhere in the world since China’s huge corn stocks keep global prices depressed. However, now Wu Tianlong of the quasi-governmental...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here). After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat with the Trump administration while attempting to show strength in advance of the 70th anniversary recognizing the founding of the People&rsq...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration is promising to boost ethanol use, via a tweet from President Trump “The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue’s statement, but with the Trump administration actively looking to help farmers, there are few traders w...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progress/overall success/exit strategy with respect to the trade dispute with President Xi and China revealed just how boxed in the hardliners in...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for E15 that effectively prevented the market from taking advantage, and, of course, the small refinery waivers. But, another factor has...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb. ($1.35/lb.) as of 14 August, a weekly gain of RMB 1.71/kg ($0.24/kg) or RMB 0.78/lb. ($0.11/lb.) that was the largest so far in 2019. It pu...
Trade, Ethanol, and Politics
In gearing up for agriculture and ag policy, the 2020 election cycle is being looked at through the prism of politics. Typically, the farm vote is reliably Republican. Aimpoint Research, in collaboration with Agri-Pulse Communications and the American Farm Bureau Federation, conducted a poll du...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Ethanol’s Uphill Fight
U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is accustomed to attacks from environmentalists, but attacks by farmers over the agency’s small refinery exemptions (SREs) from the ethanol blend requirement has exposed the soft underbelly of the Trump administration. The number of waivers has increa...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astounding 9.1 percent last month versus July 2018. Monthly food costs have not risen at this pace since January 2012, when China’s economy...
Ethanol, Pesticides and Politics
The EPA announced late Friday that it had granted 31 small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2018, bringing the total number to 7.4 percent of the overall 19.29-billion-gallon required biofuel volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). By comparison, the 2017 SREs were 9.4 percent...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Focus on New Products/Markets
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Supply Bulls, Demand Bears
Current grain and soy futures markets remind us of two old market clichés. The first is, “bears make money, bulls make money, but hogs get slaughtered.” The second is, “you never go broke taking a profit.” It appears that some fund managers may have forgotten or i...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Ethanol Use up Slightly, But Not Enough
The EPA published the 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for ethanol and biodiesel in today’s Federal Register, an unusually long lag after publically releasing the pre-publication announcement on 5 July. It will hold a public stakeholder hearing this Wednesday on the RVOs in Ypsilan...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw notably firmer prices with corn up 4 ¼ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents ,and SRW wheat up 8 cents. Forecasts for another heatwave across Europe (just as the region’s corn enters pollination and its spring wheat continues developing) were concerning, prompti...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the retroactive extension of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The most likely time frame for action on either appears to be in the fourth quarter o...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs for Fifth Straight Week With feed demand continuing to soften as more previously unidentified African swine fever (ASF) cases come to light, soybean inventories rose again to reach 924,700 MT as of 5 July 2019. That was 29,700 MT (+3.3 percent) higher than the...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-based molasses has superior nutritional qualities and has historically earned a premium. USDA pricing from more than a decade ago shows a 50...
Ethanol Facing Structural Changes in Liquid Fuel Market
The old saying “can’t see the forest for the trees” may be apt for the ethanol outlook for the next few years. Indeed, there’s been a great deal of looking at such trees as year-round E15 usage, small refinery wavers, the 2020 required volumes, and the upcoming Renewable...
EPA Announces 2020 Biofuel Volumes
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler signed the agency’s proposed 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) today, which will be published next week in the Federal Register and be open for public comments. The EPA will also hold a public hearing on the pro...
Ethanol Margins Low, Politics High
USDA released its Grain Crushing and Co-Production report today; total ethanol use of corn in May was 460 million bushels, which stands at 104 percent of April but 98 percent from the same period last year. DDGS production was 1.94 million tons. Corn gluten feed production from wet...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Meat Imports Surge in May as Domestic Shortfall Increases Monthly data from China’s Customs Bureau shows that total meat and offal imports hit a record high of 556,276 MT in May, up 45 percent from 383,639 MT in May 2018.This was driven by the ongoing impact of African swine fev...
Biodiesel Tax Credit and RFS Volumes with Some Surprises
The House Ways and Means Committee completed action on a tax extender package last Thursday night. It includes a three-year extension of the $1/gallon tax credit for biodiesel blending that matches the language already introduced in the Senate, meaning this will probably move through a House-Se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Ethanol Margins Squeezed Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Ethanol production ended May at a pace of 1.044 million barrels per day (bpd), which was the lowest level in a month after the buildup for the summer driving season. However, it also left stocks at their second highest level on record for that month. Crude oil stocks increased early in May and...