Overnight trade produced mixed results for grain and soy prices. Soybeans were down, winter wheat was up slightly, and corn was about unchanged after Decem...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
A Huge Week for Tax Reform and the Farm Bill Budget
President Trump returned from his Thanksgiving holiday break with a tweet underscoring this week’s make-or-break tax reform. As previously reported m...
Glyphosaticus Subterfugium; NAFTA Opportunity; SME Focus
Glyphosaticus Subterfugium Although its roots are Latin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s reported anger with Christian Schmidt, her agricultu...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; EU Reauthorizes Glyphosate; Argentine Drought
Disappointing Export Sales for Soybeans The 24 November USDA export sales report was very disappointing for soybeans. It showed net soybean export sales fo...
Tight U.S. Grain Sorghum Supplies
Yesterday Mike Krueger commented on how U.S. barley and oats production has suffered (see Ag Perspectives, 27 November) as those so-called minor feed grain...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s proposed sale of state-owned flour mills is reported to be slightly more difficult than expected, c...
Market Commentary
USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist provided a look at its initial 10-year baseline projections for 2018-2027 today, which will be updated and expan...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Ag Review - November 2017
This month's look at the markets around the world. We have seen a lot of activity this month and things are looking up internationally. Check out this mont...
The Farm Bill and an Unprecedented Monetary Policy Scenario
Yesterday Bob Kohlmeyer shared his typically keen and instructive insight on the upcoming farm bill (see Ag Perspectives, 16 November). His fluency in all...
WTO Views; NAFTA Impacts; Real Trump Threats
WTO Views U.S. Department of Commerce Deputy Assistant Secretary Skip Jones said that the Trump administration could decide to leave the WTO. He argu...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Informa released its initial U.S. planting ideas for the 2018 season, which indicate it is expecting more corn acres and fewer soybean acres. It’s to...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Slumping Corn Prices, but No Export Feasibility Huge corn arrivals in the market yard have led to a seasonal slump in prices, which is a seasonal trend. Ma...
Market Commentary
Markets opened steady to higher Thursday evening and then strengthened at today’s opening. They found some short covering to end the week, but there...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters’ beef demand and pricing. Feedlot tu...
Aussie Livestock in China; U.S. Live Cattle Trade
Aussie Livestock in China In the past few years, China has transitioned from being a non-market to an open market and then a closed market for U.S. ethanol...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; China GMO Safety Certificates
NOPA Crush Report Suggests Lower Oil Content in 2017 U.S. Soybeans The National Oilseed Processors Association’s (NOPA’s) monthly crush report...
It Is Farm Bill Time Again
Much like a colonoscopy, every few years it is time for another farm bill, and the process of creating one is about as much fun. Passed in 2014, the curren...
Market Commentary
Lower volume and minimal price changes were featured during the overnight session, which is using the word feature very loosely. Winter wheat futures were...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Zimbabwe’s Ag Policy; Degrees of Distortion; Two-way Organic Fraud
Zimbabwe’s Ag Policy It is premature to conclude that the military’s takeover of government functions from Robert Mugabe’s regime in Zimb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 November 2017 Market Trends Milling wheat prices rose gradually in RUB expression, but they decreased in USD expression d...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues to Shrink, But Pace Slows Increased plant idling through the first week of November led to further contraction in Chin...
Market Commentary
Lower volume and minimal price changes were featured during the overnight session, which is using the word feature very loosely. Winter wheat futures were...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Global Biodiesel
The global biodiesel market is a like a big balloon – if pressure is put on one part (policy changes), there’s a bulge in another. In 2013, the...
Asian Catch-Up?; Undermined by Agreements; Selective Data
Asian Catch-Up? The Trump administration is supposed to make a big announcement tomorrow. Although some believe it relates to a Section 201 opinion regardi...
Less U.S. Canola and Sunseed; COFCO and Mato Grosso; Egyptian Vegoil Tender
U.S. Canola Area Up, Production Down in 2017 Last week’s USDA crop production report noted 2.028 million acres of canola were harvested in 2017, up 1...
How Noncommercials View Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report of 10 November covered futures and options positi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt and Turkey are the two largest importers of Russian wheat. However, if Russia is to double grain exports within th...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures saw average volume and limited price movement. Markets traded on both sides of Monday’s closes. At the rec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Tax Reform Update
Last Thursday was a big day for tax reform proposals in Congress. The House Ways and Means Committee passed its Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by a vote of 24-16 th...
Clean Label, Dirty Food; Rebalancing WTO
Clean Label, Dirty Food Ruth MacDonald and Ruth Litchfield at Iowa State University analyzed the impacts of the clean label movement and conclude there wil...
“She’s Back!”
“She’s back!” is the title of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) November 2017 La Nina update, wh...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market again remained about unchanged last week. Demand for Black Sea wheat is slightly weaker than in the peak months of Augus...
MERCOSUR Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The FOB and CNF markets were very quiet last week with little movement. Chinese demand was quite slow and only on the spot. Basis rose ever...
Market Commentary
Markets started the new week steady to slightly easier Sunday night. However, they were trading lower by Monday’s close after opening this morning wi...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
U.S. and Brazil: Ethanol Trade War
The U.S. and Brazil are edging toward a trade war over ethanol. Brazil has imposed a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) on imported ethanol with the full backing of t...
Anti-Glyphenation; WTO Shark Bait
Anti-Glyphenation Weed experts have called glyphosate a one-in-100-years discovery for its combination of efficacy in weed eradication and otherwise benign...
Boom Went the Strings of the Corn Market
Yesterday’s record corn yield estimate really sealed the fate of the corn market for at least several months. Some significant crop problems in Brazi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Duty on Wheat Imports After raising the 2017/18 Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat by 6.8 percent to Rs.17,350 ($266.19)/MT in a signal to farmers, the...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to fractionally higher overnight, and they traded slightly higher much of today. That was a small surprise considering the magnitude of...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Chinese Frenemy; Health versus Ag
Chinese Frenemy Donald Trump once again has caused consternation, which this time is over his characterization of China’s trade policy. Until now, he...
WASDE and Exports; Organic Rule Delayed Again
WASDE and Exports USDA’s November WASDE report of today projects slightly lower beef and pork production but slightly higher broiler production versu...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Soy Forecasts; U.S. Soy Export Sales
No Huge Changes in USDA Soy Forecasts Anyone expecting major changes for the U.S. and global soybean supply/demand situation in today’s USDA crop pro...
Another Bearish WASDE
Following are the key estimates from the November 2017 WASDE: 2017’s yield magic continues. USDA/NASS raised its estimated U.S. averag...
Market Commentary
USDA issued another bearish blow to the corn and soybean markets with its November WASDE. Bob Kohlmeyer delves deeper into the WASDE number and implication...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory in Downward Spiral on Strong Demand Stepped-up idling of plants due to ongoing environmental regulations and strong downstream d...
Market Commentary
There is not much to say about today’s grain and soy futures markets. Traders are cautious ahead of tomorrow’s November WASDE, much as they sho...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Thursday
Thu 11/09/2017 8:30 am Weekly Export Sales FAS 12:00 pm WASDE ERS 12:00 pm Cotton Ginnings NASS 12:00 pm Crop Production NASS 12:00 pm Peanut Prices NASS 1...
Stuff and Fluff of en dehors; Carbo-Overload
Stuff and Fluff of en dehors Donald Trump has adopted the “Asian pivot” of his predecessor but not in the same fashion. While Barack Obama appr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
[Note: The Russian grain and oilseed market information that regularly appears here was unavailable today. We hope to have an update in next week’s r...
Biofuel Bits
U.S. RFS Volumes The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is reviewing the EPA’s proposed rule under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for e...
Geographical Disadvantage; Behind the Tree
Geographical Disadvantage Political correctness has turned English political economist David Ricardo’s comparative advantage theory on its head. Inst...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soybean Exports Impact U.S.; Argentine Soy Crop Forecast; MY 2016/17 U.S. Soy Exports
U.S. Soybean Exports and Sales Impacted by Larger Brazilian Sales The first two months (September-October) of MY 2017/18 for soybeans have not been very po...
Yield Magic
The story of the 2017/18 crop cycle in the U.S. and the world is being written. However, only the first few chapters have emerged so far, and there will no...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As a point of information, November 2017 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the General Agreement on Tar...
Market Commentary
It is WASDE week with the November edition due out Thursday noon (EST). Barring emergence of something surprising, grain and soy markets are expected to be...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Trump Tours Asia
Last Friday President Trump started an 11-day tour of Asia, the longest visit to the region since President George H.W. Bush was there in 1992. The five co...
Japan in Spades; Ponics for Work; Agrifoolish
Japan Almost in Spades Donald Trump abhors trade deficits, but he found his more accurate language during a state visit to Japan this week in citing a lega...
U.S. Winter Wheat Acres Will Decline Again
U.S. farmers planted the smallest number of winter wheat acres in 2016 since USDA started keeping records in 1919, and they will be even further reduced in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The South American soybean market is picking up with several trades completed this week. Certain conditions are affecting margins for trading houses, thoug...
Market Commentary
General Comment Markets were all steady to slightly higher in overnight trade, and volume was considered average. This is report week again, and USDA...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Next Week
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Tax Reform and Change at the Fed
Yesterday was a red-letter day for fiscal and monetary proposals with the Republican majority on the House Ways and Means Committee unveiling a new tax ref...
Why Didn’t I Sell Corn?
Corn producers across the country are scratching their heads and second-guessing why they didn’t sell or price more new crop corn when the December f...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Indian Market Should Open to U.S. Imports The U.S. Commerce Dept. and U.S. Trade Representative first raised market access issues with India at the 26 Octo...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were mixed overnight with corn steady, wheat slightly higher and soybeans slightly lower. Volume was quiet ahead of the last day o...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Friday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Europe Farm Policy; USDA in Good Hands
Europe Farm Policy A study by Chatham House, a subsidiary of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, calls for a post-Brexit, market-orient...
British Vets Assess Impact of Brexit
The next round of Brexit negotiations occurs 9-10 of November. As the saying goes, “the devil is in the details.” That is a point very m...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Oilseed Price Problem and Potential Actions; U.S. Soy Sales; FIRST Yield Trial Results
India May Raise Vegoil Import Tariffs and Subsidize Soymeal Exports The government of India (GOI) is under a great deal of pressure from farmers to do some...
NAFTA 2.0 or NAFTA 0.0?
We old-timers who have been involved in the grain business for many years (yes, there are a few of us left) have witnessed the benefits of trade first hand...
Market Commentary
General Comments The CME Group announced that its average daily volume of all types of futures contracts reached 14.9 million contracts in October 2017, up...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Thursday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
TPP Angle; Biodiesel Negotiations; Land Regulation
TPP Angle Briefers on President Trump’s upcoming Asia trip are not saying that he will press for bilateral free trade agreements with Japan, Vietnam...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 October 2017 Market Trends Grain prices showed little change as they mostly either remained stable or slightly decreased. GEOG...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Drops to Six-Month Low Delayed shipments of imported soybeans combined with strong feed demand have pushed China’s estimat...
Market Commentary
General Comments Overnight trading of grain and soy futures experienced better volume than has been seen recently, but this did not translate into signific...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Ag Review - October 2017
WPI's monthly publication featuring the following analysis in this issue: Biofuel’s Long Road Ahead U.S. Farm Profitability Outlook Changing D...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Politics and USDA
Former Nebraska Director of Agriculture Greg Ibach has been confirmed as undersecretary of USDA’s Marketing and Regulatory Programs. He will join Dep...
Novel on Notification; Party sans Substance; Waste No Profit
Novel on Notification Hats off to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) for developing a novel approach to remedying what is otherwise a problem of unaccoun...
Oilseed Highlights: Low Protein in U.S. Soybeans; Soy Health Claim; South American Weather
U.S. Soybeans’ Lower Protein Content Not Unusual A Reuters article yesterday correctly indicated the average protein content of the 2017 U.S. soybean...
The Tilt of Market Biases
The U.S. soybean harvest is in its final stretch. Meanwhile, the corn harvest is more than half done, although progress is behind the average rate for the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s supply minister said that the government’s grain storage capacity totals 4.1 MMT an...
Market Commentary
General Comments Today’s Halloween market action cannot be described as being very scary, although Chicago and KC winter wheat contracts did fall to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Tuesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Tax Reform is Coming
Late last week, the House of Representatives voted to accept the budget resolution passed by the U.S. Senate, which provides for tax reform and would allow...
Production Standards Astray; Winnowing Support; Profit and Taxes
Production Standards Astray EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström reportedly agreed at an animal welfare conference last week that imported meat pro...
The Wonderful World of Wheat
It’s difficult to write about wheat when we are still reading the world is “awash” in it, and weekly U.S. export sales continue to be rat...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continued to stay about unchanged last week. Russian exports will reach close to 15 MMT for the first four months of the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market resumed activity last week as Chinese demand returned. There were some trades on the spot for November at $1.58-1.60X...
Market Commentary
General Comments The Sunday night markets were mixed with soybeans strong early, corn steady and wheat slightly weaker. Trading volume last night was prett...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Nonsensical Analysis
There are too many people, groups and companies, etc. trying to create analytical grain and oilseed market news. The years of the U.S. biofuels revolution...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were slightly easier in quiet trade again last night. Soybeans were trading 3-4 cents higher today, but corn and wheat mostly trad...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Next Week
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Politics and Biofuel Policy
Newton’s Third Law of Physics states that for every action, there is a reaction. That law also seemingly applies to renewable energy politics. As pre...
No is Not a Policy; Fame and Combat; Dazed and Confused
No is Not a Policy The U.S. announced in Geneva that there will not be a ministerial declaration in Buenos Aires later this year. This would be the first t...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports
Disappointing U.S. Soymeal Export Sales Last Week Yesterday’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated good sales for U.S. soybeans and soyoil last...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
MSPs for Key Crops Increased Before Sowing Season Begins The government of India (GOI) has raised the 2017/18 Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for rabi crops...
Friday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Too Much Malarkey; Competing against Treasuries
Too Much Malarkey Negotiations continue on a WTO agreement for the December ministerial in Buenos Aires, and some of the positions being asserted are absur...
Beef Outlook; Dietary Guideline Process Overhaul
Cattle and Beef Outlook According to USDA, the average dressed weights of slaughtered cattle for both steers and heifers increased in September vers...
Brexit and Market Regulation
If there is one thing that was proven during the 2008/09 financial meltdown, it is that such crises do not recognize national borders in this era of global...
Market Commentary
General Comments For grain and soy futures markets, it was another day of more of the same low trading volume, narrow price ranges and not much interest in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Thursday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Secondary Benefits; Don’t Be Fooled; Killing the Golden Goose
Secondary Benefits There are secondary benefits to legislation recently introduced in the U.S. Congress and backed by major farm organizations. The bill wo...
Oilseed Highlights: Biodiesel Duties; New Fungicide in Brazil; China’s Soybean Prices
Preliminary Duties Set on Argentine and Indonesian Biodiesel On Monday the Commerce Department announced preliminary antidumping duties on biodiesel import...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 October 2017 Market Trends Wheat prices fluctuated insignificantly. GEOGRAPHICALLY 3rd grade soft milling wheat prices f...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Drops Nearly 9 Percent on Strong Demand As demand for soymeal continued to surge following the holiday week, China’s estim...
Market Commentary
General Comments In the current environment, there does not seem to be much reason to trade the grain markets. Speculative money put into markets for stock...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Short-Lived Sugar Taxes
Many food and ag regulations/policies start off as state and/or local initiatives before spreading elsewhere. Animal welfare began with a referendum on swi...
Bye-Bye Science; Blockade after Doud; Sweet Substitution
Bye-Bye Science The European Parliament routinely votes against GMOs, and it did so again this week against three pending soybean events. Members complaine...
South American Weather is Key
The U.S. soybean harvest has progressed rapidly and the corn harvest more slowly. Meanwhile, winter wheat planting is plugging away at near the average pac...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Switzerland-based, Russian-owned Grainbow AG has launched a lawsuit against Egypt’s GASC, which i...
Market Commentary
General Comments The overnight trade in grain and soy futures showed signs of a “Turnaround Tuesday” as prices slipped slightly below Monday&rs...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was again about unchanged last week. Russian 12.5 pro wheat remains the cheapest origin for that quality for the main de...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Logistics are driving Argentina’s old crop corn market, and exporters are selling at negative margins. Meanwhile, new crop offers are increasing on a...
Oilseeds Redux; Live Test; Parties Reverse
Oilseeds Dispute Redux EU officials agreed to technical changes to the Common Agricultural Policy that, at least on the surface, appear to create more prob...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report this past Friday, and many of the pre-report industry estimates were accurate (see Ag Perspectives, 1...
Dicamba-Resistant Soybean Issue Might Not Be a Problem
WPI previously commented on the Dicamba chemical controversy (see Ag Perspectives, 7 August 2017). Dicamba-resistant soybeans, intended to replace the Roun...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week sharply steady in the Sunday evening session, and they then opened this morning basically steady with no evidence of any pent-up w...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Next Week
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
EPA Letter Bullish for Biofuels
The notice of data availability (NODA) recently released by the EPA (see Ag Perspectives, 26 September) was triggered by several issues, primarily the Comm...
Real WTO Reform
Back in 1998, WPI’s Carole Brookins first proposed what she called the “Golden Rule” before a WTO ministerial meeting in Geneva. She argu...
So Much Pain in Agriculture
There was an article making the rounds this week from Bloomberg, “There’s So Much Pain in Agriculture That Traders Are Leaving” (click he...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Up and Expected to Increase Further India’s oil year 2016/17 (November-October) ends soon with all vegetable oil imports in the...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were higher overnight with soybeans up 3 cents, corn one half-cent higher and wheat up 2-3 cents. Volume was much better than othe...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Friday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Trump Bends on Biofuel; Support Revamp; Protection Sought
Trump Bends on Biofuel President Trump can be self-contradictory at times. However, when reminded of his pledge all across Iowa last year that he would &ld...
GIPSA Rule Repealed; Cattle on Feed
GIPSA Rule Repealed Nine years of USDA rulemaking just went down the drain this week. On Tuesday, the Trump administration repealed the Grain Inspection, P...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indonesian Palm Oil; Chinese Soyoil Stocks; U.S. Corn and Soybean Plantings
Good U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report noted good success last week in the selling of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoi...
Export Sales Tidbits
One of the constants in terms of market inputs is the weekly export sales report compiled and released by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)...
Market Commentary
General Comments Today’s grain and soy futures markets can be described as very similar to what has been seen all week with narrow price ranges, mini...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Thursday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Missing Trade Policy Component; U.S.–Japan FTA; Trade Goal and Ag Sector Health
Missing Trade Policy Component WTO Director General Roberto Azevēdo is suggesting a plurilateral approach for at least some of the issues failing to reach...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 October 2017 Market Trends Wheat prices increased slightly as prices for other crops fluctuated insignificantly. GEOGRAP...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventories Fall Again Over Holiday Week There was a sharp slowdown in crushing activity during the lengthy holiday week that combined the...
Market Commentary
General Comments: If there is one word that describes the grain and soy futures market this week, our pick would be lethargic. Volume is very low with pric...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Farm or Be Taxed in Africa
A dead economist’s ideas are alive and well in ag policy debate. Many policy ideas, especially related to taxation, are attributed to “d...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Crop Impacts Prices; U.S. Senators and Biodiesel Blending Mandate; NOPA Crush Report
Larger China Soybean Crop Results in Lower Prices Last year China decided to boost its support to farmers growing soybeans while simultaneously reducing th...
Some Miscellaneous Thoughts
We have just returned from our annual autumn fishing trip. This year’s destination was the eastern part of Idaho, a state filled with beautiful scene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS: Morocco’s import duty on soft wheat will be reduced from the current 135 percent to 30 percent on 1 December 2017...
Market Commentary
General Comments: Lower and slower describes today’s grain and soy markets for the most part. Overnight trading saw barely more than 13,000 contracts...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Tuesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Trump Transition Still Ongoing
There’s been much attention this year on the slow pace of Secretary Sonny Perdue’s confirmation and the filling of subcabinet positions at USDA...
Judged Broken; Irrelevant Facts
Judged Broken EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström expressed understandable frustration with the continued blocking by Washington of new dispute se...
Is the U.S. Headed to Have Just Two Major Crops?
It is becoming clearer every year that U.S. farmers might be headed towards planting just two major crops: corn and soybeans. Consider the following: Wint...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Domestic prices in Russia continue to rise in the south (close to the ports) while d...
Mercosur In-Country Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Supply/Demand Update Brazil’s Conab just released its first estimates for the 2017/18 campaign, which reflect the general trend of su...
Market Commentary
General Comments: Corn, soybean and wheat markets were steady to just fractionally higher overnight in light volume. They then opened slightly higher today...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
CFTC Data & Charts
...
Next Week
Mon 10/16/2017 12:00 pm Cotton & Wool Outlook: October 2017 ERS 12:00 pm Oil Crops Outlook: October 2017 ERS 3:00 pm Feed Outlook: October 2017 ERS 3:0...
Problem Solved
The CME isn’t interested in proposing any more solutions that would be in search of a problem; that was the message from the organization’s man...
Conspiracy Theorist
Rene Ebersole writes in The Nation about Monsanto and how the glyphosate controversy could be the company’s “Big Tobacco” moment. However...
Farm Subsidy Reformists
The free-market think tank American Enterprise Institute has issued a paper calling for an end to U.S. farm bill crop subsidies and a shifting of those fun...
Equilibrium
The 12 October USDA reports might have created a state of equilibrium in wheat, corn and soybean markets for the following reasons: Any significant change...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Cotton Production Could Bring Prices Down The land planted to cotton in India has increased 18.62 percent to 12.1 million hectares in 2017/18 versus...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were quietly steady to higher overnight following yesterday’s strong closes in soybeans that pulled corn higher as wel...
Closing Futures Prices
The October WASDE sparked a strong rally in soybean futures which pulled corn along higher. Wheat futures initially traded higher but ended the day lower...
Friday
Fri 10/13/2017 8:30 am Weekly Export Sales FAS 9:00 am Feed Grains Database ERS 12:00 pm Meat Price Spreads ERS 3:00 pm Dairy Data (Dairy Monthly Tables) E...
Scapegoat Wine
Copa-Cogeca’s Wine Working Party has warned that climate change and extreme weather have caused a “historically low” wine harvest. French...
Mob versus Science
Activists in Europe delivered more than the 1 million signatures required under the European Citizens’ Initiative to compel action on their demand to...
Livestock Roundup: Bearish WASDE
The WASDE was bearish for the meat and livestock market, but it could have been much worse without one factor. WASDE USDA released its WASDE report today...
Oilseed Highlights: Dow Enlist E3 Soybeans; USDA Reports’ Soybean Highlights
Dow to Team with ADM to Sell Soybean Seed Not Approved in Europe and China Dow AgroSciences will partner with ADM to sell its Enlist E3 soybeans in t...
A Friendly USDA Report
Today’s crop production and supply/demand estimates were considered slightly bullish for soybeans but neutral corn and wheat. Soybean futures traded...
Market Commentary
The October WASDE was surprisingly bullish soybeans, which jumped 26.75 cents higher, and neutral/bearish corn. Wheat of course received another bearish re...
Silver Bullet Misses; Eggsactly Wrong
Silver Bullet Misses In mythology, bullets cast from silver can stop werewolves and witches. In actual ballistic studies comparing bullets made of silver v...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Poor weather is creating corn harvest delays in Ukraine and is pushing prices higher. Russian wheat prices were stable this week while corn prices continue...
Closing Futures Prices
Poor weather is creating corn harvest delays in Ukraine and is pushing prices higher. Russian wheat prices were stable this week while corn prices continue...
Market Commentary
General Comments: The overnight session featured prices drifting lower on lack of any buying interest. December corn finished down 1 ½ cents while N...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s corn prices remain on the defensive and it is likely any governmental support policies will shift towards processor incentives in the long ru...
Market Commentary
General Comments: As wildfires engulfed parts southern California today, it seems fitting to use a firefighting adage to describe the grain markets...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Low asking prices for PNW soybeans are crowding out U.S. Gulf, Brazilian, and Argentinian exporters, with the latter needing to lower prices 20 cents to be...
Expansion of North American Marine Aquaculture Jeopardized by Salmon Escape
The U.S. soybean sector has placed a high priority on promoting the use of soymeal and soy protein in aquaculture feeds in the U.S. and around the world. M...
Market Commentary
General Comments: There are two major factors that will affect grain and oilseed prices this week: WASDE: It is USDA report week (again). Revised corn and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures' technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for gra...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Traders should be sleeping well with the general lack of things to keep you up at night. However, danger is lurking below the surface of several markets.Th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian government is likely to implement an import tax of 20 percent on wheat, making it more cost effective to transport wheat across India than impor...
WPI's New Website
The world is changing fast and World Perspectives is changing with it. Later this month, we will launch a completely updated website that will... The worl...
Labor’s Poor Math; North Korea; Trade Priorities
Corporate profits are (incorrectly) attributed solely to greed – but not if it’s a technology company. Elsewhere, few people believe the U.S. and North Kor...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Regulations and The RIN Price Roller Coaster
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding biofuel regulatory policy currently, much of which has whipsawed RINs prices.There’s a lot of uncertainty surround...
Market Commentary
HRS wheat led the wheat complex higher today and reports of poorer-than-expected soybean yields ushered in some buying in that contract. No spillover buyin...
Common Thread
Corn and soybean futures have been lackluster in recent weeks but several factors are pointing to a more interesting future. COMMON THREAD: Bits and Pieces...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
The Scientific Skinny on Fat
The last dietary guidelines issued by the federal government called for a 50 to 60 percent reduction in meat consumption; one Congressman wants to reform t...
Bits and Pieces
Corn and soybean futures have been lackluster in recent weeks but several factors are pointing to a more interesting future.USDA’s 29 September small grain...
Fake Standards; FDA Flunks; Aussie Prostration; Nuke Leverage
The Environmental Working Group confuses exposure with actual risk; “Love” is no longer a granola ingredient; Australia believes it can negotiation better...
Market Commentary
Soybeans put on the most impressive show today with non-commercial buying while corn managed to climb as much as three cents higher today. Wheat, on the ot...
Oilseed Highlights: New Hurricane May Damage Soybeans, U.S. Soy Exports, EU Soy
The new Hurricane Nate will likely damage Mid-South soybeans and the market is pricing in a risk premium for this event. U.S. soybean exports remain robust...
China In-Country Analysis
Trading in agricultural products has been light due to China’s Mid-Autumn Festival. Year to date, U.S. exports to China have reached their third high...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Weak cash basis is a drag on corn futures and ethanol is that market’s only bright spot. Soybean futures firmed today on poor weather in Brazil while wheat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices continued to fall last week while Ukrainian prices increased. Ukraine has been granted additional grain export quotas from the EU, whi...
Moral Based Trade; Marginal Change Required
Tying climate change requirements to trade agreements may seem wise, but doing so holds dangerous moral implications. Elsewhere, negotiation means everybod...
Farm Bill Catches a Break in Senate Budget
The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to pass its FY2018 budget plan tomorrow; and the House may take up its budget blueprint this week too. What does t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya is facing a maize shortage while Zambia faces oversupply with the inability to export. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking for a new customs union arrangeme...
Ending Labor; Proven versus Suspected
The world’s first autonomously produced crop has important implications for U.S. immigration policy while activists remain confused on the difference betwe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures defied their downtrend and moved higher on news of rising Russian prices. Corn futures are a nickel away from their contract low while soybea...
U.S. Wheat's Mixed Bag
WPI forecasts 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports will be 5% above USDA’s latest projection. Russia’s record production will not be able to overcome...Among the lit...
WPI's New Website
The world is changing fast and World Perspectives is changing with it. Later this month, we will launch a completely updated website that will... The worl...
Oilseed Highlights: Plenish Soybeans, Brazil Soy Exports, U.S. Soybean Yields
Plenish® soyoil is found to reduce obesity but cause liver dysfunction. Elsewhere, Brazil exports lage soymeal and soyoil volumes while U.S. farmers pick u...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Algeria bought 480,000 MT of wheat last week for December delivery, paying $211-212/MT CNF. The sales were certainly based on French wheat because of an is...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Derivative Choices; Policy Choices; Loss of Hydrogen
India is allowing commodity derivatives trading while the European Parliament wants to increase regulation on futures markets, time will tell which policy...
Comment Period on WOTUS Rule Closed
Though way behind schedule, agriculture’s top regulatory priority is one step closer to being completed, and will likely be so by early next year, but will...
Disappointment in Wheat Country
Both winter and spring wheat area is likely to decrease again from last year’s record low. The reasons are many and include...Last Friday’s USDA reports ag...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets came under pressure from harvest hedge selling while last week’s bearish reports continue to rock the wheat market. General Commen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean markets are quiet and fighting for competitiveness against the U.S. PNW. Argentine corn markets have a large carry from October-Nove...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is expected to have a robust sugarcane harvest with production at 25.1 MMT in sugar year 2017/18, and there has been considerable discussion about en...
Market Commentary
USDA's larger-than-expected spring wheat production estimate caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, corn tagged along with the strong soybean market. Ge...
Conference Critical of Farm Policy to Be Convened in DC
It is easy to tell that the farm bill is right around the corner because all the anti-farm program think tanks are suddenly engaging in the policy debate.N...
USDA Reports Bearish Wheat, Positive Corn and Soybeans
There were two primary considerations in the USDA 1 September quarterly stocks estimates and annual small grains summary reports that were released this mo...
Drugless and Cureless; Seasonal Trap; Economics versus War
Florida produce growers who are tired of competing with Mexico have reportedly prompted the Trump administration into a policy for reducing trade and consu...
Ag Review: Meat Exports and Macroeconomic Opportunities
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Troubled Horizon; Big versus Small
The EU is strengthening its food safety and inspection measures against fraud, contamination and duality. Looking down the road, however, there is a more t...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released the Hogs and Pigs report today, confirming a record swine herd for the third quarter in a row. Another factor, though, has kept prices from p...
Oilseed Highlights: Corn versus Soybeans in Argentina; Subsidy Complaint against Argentine Biodiesel; Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
The Jones Act – Again
Aid to hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico can only be delivered by air or ocean vessel. However, the effort to bring relief has been further hampered by t...
Market Commentary
Today’s futures trade was quiet with low volume, just as one might expect on the day prior to an important report from USDA. In fact, nearly all of today’s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's crude sunflower oil prices stopped growing and remained at $866-869/MT EXW. Although forecasts for 2017/18 production are lower than the 20...
WTO Sideshows; USTR Breakdown; Virtual Politics; Macron’s Vision
The WTO’s annual Public Forum is being held this week, and the theme is how to create an open and inclusive trading system for all. However, it is more soc...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s landed price for imported soybeans fell $3/MT to $420/MT as China’s yuan lost ground to the U.S. dollar for the second straight wee...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Corn futures prices managed to move in a 6-cent range today as an increasing number of early yield reports are hinting that NASS may not be as far off with...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw volume fade and prices wobble before finishing near Monday’s closes, but more of a price pattern developed during the day session...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Zimbabwe’s acting president has said that the government’s program of buying maize at $390/MT from farmers and selling it to maize millers at $250 /MT is “...
The EPA Seeks Ways to Reduce the RFS
The EPA issued another short-term opportunity to comment on its proposed biofuel volumes, especially how to reduce the biodiesel mandate.EPA Administrator...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Soybean Yields; Global Rapeseed Output; New Soy Crush Plant
Global rapeseed production in 2017/18 has been forecast to closely match that of the previous year. While crop sizes are expected to change among sev...
Anticipating Quarterly Stocks
It has been a few years since markets were whipsawed by a series of inexplicable quarterly stocks surprises from USDA. Even if those numbers to be released...
Threat to Ethanol; Herbicide Politics; Waste Politics; Two-Way Benefits
California’s legislature voted to move its 2020 presidential primary up from June to March to give itself more relevance in the outcome. However, some worr...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine FOB market for soybeans is quiet to start this week. Sellers are quoting $0.60X for October and November shipments (protein 34/33), but anoth...
Market Commentary
There were likely three issues that pushed all three wheat markets to gains today despite the weakness in soybeans and flat corn market. General Comments S...
Risks to the Export Boom
U.S. ag exports have benefited from strong global demand and also dovish monetary policy at home. The latter is about to change, though, and could impact t...
Where Did All That Corn Come From?
The market for corn is far more complex on the import side than it is for soybeans with many significant players. The export side, however, is basically li...
U.S.-India Bilateral; Buy Mexican
Nestlé’s subsidiary in Mexico, Grupo Nestlé Mexico, has made a commitment that is one more example of trade policy moving in the wrong direction.. U.S.-Ind...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The corn harvest is about 30 percent completed in Romania and Bulgaria, and the yields are exceeding farmers’ expectations in many regions. Those origins a...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
Active Month for Soybean Sales
There have been soybean export sales announced every day except for one during the past two-week period, and the outlook for future sales is all about one...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
Hermit Surprise; Geneva Mystery; Fart Measurement; Pollster
WTO Director General Roberto Azevédo is asking key countries to decide what are doable and undoable issues at the organization’s upcoming ministerial in Bu...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Market Commentary
Most of the market talk today was about upcoming harvest pressure (or perhaps the lack thereof) in corn and soybeans. KC and Chicago wheat futures couldn’t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India and the U.S. have continued to build their relationship, but the issue is the trade deficit that favors the former. The U.S. could impose restriction...
Cattle on Feed; Red Meat Record; Growth in Organic
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Green Eye Blinders
The European Environmental Bureau (EEB) issued its recommendations for revising the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and now U.S. environmental groups are...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Export Sales; Iranian Soy Imports
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
There is No Escaping Weather
Clearly, there are a number of weather-related situations with the potential to become important market factors in the months ahead.Weather is a topic for...
Market Commentary
With harvest beginning to pick up along with USDA’s quarterly stocks report and final small grain summary due out on 29 September, there is little incentiv...
Competition; UNanswers; CETA Fears
At least one Trump administration nominee is suggesting the goal should be demands for more market access, and the argument is that it is good for everyone...
Market Commentary
An initial spurt of buying that followed the very large export sales announcements from USDA/FAS put soybean prices up nearly 9 cents. Wheat futures, thoug...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices during 11-15 September followed the previous week's trend as they were again influenced by the same factor. Meanwhile, those prices in...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week's domestic corn price ticked up as demand has been strong in Shandong Province, helped considerably by steady gains in one particular sector's op...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Poison, Profits and Arrogance
NFL star quarterback Tom Brady goes after the food industry in his new self-help book and replicates the celebrity model of making broad disparaging charac...
Peering Over the Horizon
The current limited price action of both the corn and soybean markets is reflecting the lack of fresh market-moving inputs. Looking ahead at the next three...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
What in the Fed is Going On?
With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting today and tomorrow, Fed watchers will be looking for news on interest rates and the Fed’s balance shee...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crops; EU Duties and Argentine Biodiesel; NOPA Crush; Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Experts in Kenya are saying that the government will not be able to terminate the duty-free importation of white maize at the end of September as planned b...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded on both sides of Monday’s closes overnight and were not far from unchanged at the early morning recess. However, that soon cha...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The 12.5 pro Russian wheat has moved up about $3 in the past two weeks, but it remains the cheapest origin by far for this quality. As a result, buyers fro...
Market Commentary
Markets were all slightly higher during the first half of the Sunday evening session and then faded as the sun began rising to finish lower. Soybeans and s...
Market Commentary
General CommentsMarkets were all slightly higher during the first half of the Sunday evening session and then faded as the sun began rising to finish lower...
Weak Markets, No Selling Interest
On the doorstep of corn and soybean harvests, farmer selling across the country remains very limited. There are several reasons why.On the doorstep of corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
House Passes FY 2018 Spending Bill
For the first time in 12 years, the House has finished all regular appropriations bills prior to the beginning of the next fiscal year. However, expected s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Rain in Argentina is threatening the wheat and barley crops, while the country’s corn market remains well supplied and low priced. Meanwhile, interesting m...
Expect Action; WTO Reversals; Foie Gras Faux Pas; Tech Like Food
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer responded to critics today by noting that the erosion in American support for free trade was not rooted in igno...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With India's planted corn area down and production expected to be impacted by the effects of flooding and drought, several factors could limit any imports...
NAFTA: The Ham and Tomatoes Round
A look at two politically-sensitive products under NAFTA.The second round of NAFTA negotiations finished last week, which could have been called the “ham a...
Market Commentary
Today's soybean export sales announcement didn’t change the market’s weaker start. Meanwhile, Minneapolis wheat futures came under more selling pressure af...
Outdated Embargo Protection; Transatlantic Troubles
Some aggies are concerned that the Trump administration will impose a trade embargo against China if Beijing does not do more to stop North Korea’s nuclear...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments this week that were of interest to both the markets and producers. Soybean export sales activity has been increasing rapid...
Oilseed Highlights: Late-Season U.S. Soybean Export Surge; Conflicting Forecasts for Chinese Soy Imports; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Lower Palm Oil Price Predicted
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Attacking Agencies; Delayed Justice; Crashing MC XI
Agriculture has historically been a cooperative sector where differences are negotiated. However, just as the food sector has become more complex, the agen...
CETA to Squeeze EU Beef Market; Aussie Grain-Fed Beef; EU Net Beef Exporter
The drought in Australia during 2015 and the end of dairy production quotas in the EU are both having an impact on the global beef market. CETA to Squeeze...
What Is Ahead For Soybeans?
The recovery by soybean futures prices from their immediate post-WASDE loss this week and the subsequent move higher seem to hint that something is going o...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume was not as impressive as the ability of the market to shrug off Tuesday’s bigger production numbers and move higher. After being a...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
The fortunes of domestic soybean processors have steadily improved as the average crush margin grew RMB 4/MT ($0.62/MT) to RMB 103/MT ($15.84/MT) last week...
Trade Policy Conundrum; Bipartisan Tax Time; Target India
A meeting of U.S. aggies to discuss the renegotiation of NAFTA involved much focus on the net benefits of trade agreements and what is disliked about the c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports to Asian countries hit a record in August versus the same month a year ago. Meanwhile, there has been a change in Syria...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Prices of corn, soybeans and wheat traded both sides of Tuesday’s closes before winding up with small gains by the early morning recess. The day session fo...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Soy Data; Flooding in Argentina
There were some significant changes in today's WASDE estimates for the soybean sector, and flooding in a key province of Argentina will likely impact plant...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA's updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with changes to China's and Southeast Asia's import forecast, hold i...
WASDE Soymeal
Updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with USDA's changes to China's and Southeast Asia's import forecast, hold i...
The September WASDE
For the second month in a row, the 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the great majority of private analysts an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA's latest figures. The agency's updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets offer impor...
WASDE Soybeans
China's soybean demand, combined with the U.S. and South American supply situation, offer insights into the coming supply/demand dynamics. USDA's updates t...
WASDE Corn
USDA's latest supply/demand estimates for the world's most prevalent feed grain are analyzed and the most pertinent results shown in graphical form. Histor...
Harvey Leads to Higher Gas Prices and Policy Waivers
The Trump administration has reacted to the disruption of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma with a temporary waiver of a statute long opposed by the ag sector and...
Low Hope on Food to China; Price ≈ Quality
China has the largest trade surplus against the U.S. of any country, and it feeds into American animosity toward the Middle Kingdom. Low Hope on Food to Ch...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA and other international agencies are working in Pakistan to address an issue with the wheat crop there. Meanwhile, a recent study indicates maize-prod...
Market Commentary
If there is a surprising market reaction to the September WASDE, it can be found in Chicago and KC wheat futures that mostly closed around 7 cents higher d...
USDA Report Preview
Many in the trade are still skeptical that the corn and soybean yields can be as big as the August estimates and pre-report estimates for the September rep...
Amendment to Clip Crop Insurance Introduced in Senate
Crop insurance is under fire after making up for the losses of a few years ago - just in time for a record hurricane season to hit.As last reported (see Ag...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is notably quiet as farmers prefer to keep the rest of their production in hope of higher prices later. Ho...
Energy Fallout; Farm Support Fallout; Reap What You Sow
The prospects for a WTO agreement on further capping domestic agricultural supports at this December’s ministerial meeting are quite slim. Meanwhile, the p...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started mostly steady Sunday evening, but wheat prices weakened throughout the night and continued that trend this morning. Trade...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
For corn, Argentina still needs to put on program for October and December, but demand is not ready to buy at the current premiums. If this continues, it c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Markets in Neutral
Neutral is an interesting word that means nothing’s happening, which aptly describes this week's futures market action. Next Tuesday’s USDA reports could i...
Calling the Kettle Black; Beyond Belief; Harvey to Working with Dems
U.S. ethanol groups are hugely upset that Brazil has imposed import safeguards against their products and that China has gotten into large-scale production...
Congress Passes Major Fiscal Package
The House followed the Senate in passing a bill that funded the government, provided hurricane relief and addressed the debt limit. However, this is only a...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Market/trade reports indicate India's soybean crop this year could be 10 percent less because of the smaller planted area as well as the water damage...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded slightly higher much of the day, but there was zero excitement with relatively light volume. All three wheat markets were also higher m...
Oilseed Highlights: Vietnam and U.S. DDGS; Brazil Soybean Export Forecast; Canadian Canola Stocks; The EU and Argentine Biodiesel
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office indicates the government of Vietnam has addressed the issue of U.S. DDGS imports, and the EU is taking action on the...
Socially Amok; GI Amok; Regionalization; BRICS’ Challenge
Those consternated over the EU’s Greenpeace-driven GMO policy should note the current slippery slope experience in Brussels over biofuel policy. Socially A...
The Waiting Game
For now, it is a waiting game for the fall harvests. However, there can be (and are) plenty of differing opinions concerning the status of crops in the U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw firmer prices in the soy complex as short covering continued. Grain prices stayed close to unchanged. Early in the day session, buyin...
July Export Data; Pork Slaughter Capacity; From Harvey to Irma
Pork slaughter capacity grew this week more than in any previous single year as the pace of pork exports is trending differently than in 2016. Meanwhile, t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture confirmed its conservative grain production forecast as the harvest in some regions may be impacted by certain conditio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Prices across the board retreated a modest 1-3 cents overnight from yesterday’s higher closes, and trading seemed equally subdued after it resumed in the d...
China In-Country Analysis
The nationwide domestic corn price rose just RMB 1/MT ($0.15/MT) to RMB 1,664/MT ($252.47/MT) last week. Meanwhile, the estimated average utilization rate...
Self-Imposed Work; Stacking the Table; Acute Famine; Wait, There’s More
There are complaints that Canada’s increasing demands in the NAFTA renegotiations will drag the talks into 2018, an election year in both the U.S. and Mexi...
Market Commentary
Trading in grain and soy complex futures resumed Monday evening, and prices began to firm after a hesitant start. More of the same prevailed during the day...
A Mix of Bullish Influences
Aside from seasonal considerations, there are plenty of other outside influences in play that can move grain and soy futures prices, mainly higher in the s...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Bolivian Soybeans to China; EU Oilseed Production; Thai Soy Imports; Indian Vegoil Imports
The government of Bolivia has reached an agreement with China that is aimed at boosting its exports to that country. However, it faces one certain challeng...
It’s Baaaaaack!
Congress is back after recess and facing a daunting schedule through December, which could even include the 2018 Farm Bill.After the traditional August rec...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt has released an announcement regarding the allowance of 13.5 percent moisture in wheat instead of 13 percent that had been put in place to allow Fren...
Korean Crisis; RCEP Reality; Markup Opportunity; USDA Picks
The U.S. agriculture sector was in crisis mode over the Labor Day holiday weekend after Donald Trump said he would decide quickly on his inclination to wit...
Unbeatable Combination; 800-Pound Gorilla; Hopeful; About Harvey
Some members of the European Parliament are expressing concern that the adoption of precision agriculture and other new technologies will widen the divide...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
According to a recent report, India’s broiler industry is on a growth path in 2017/18. However, it is also under immense pressure from various sources as n...
Big Changes since the 5 July RFS Proposal
The comment period is closed for the 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, and the EPA must consider the results of a trade case against biodiesel im...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments and stories in the news this week that could have future market implications. Stats Canada released its initial production...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Corn struggled to hold even minor gains overnight and today, and it was under the most pressure, probably due to the release of two private crop estimates...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Macron Goes Political; Ag Power at EPA; Fruit & Vegetable Value?
In contrast to the French goal of being leader on environmental matters, U.S. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt made a short genuflection to the agriculture s...
Market Commentary
Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of grain and soy prices across the board with one exception. Overnight trade was slow with low vol...
More Tales from Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Possible Argentine-U.S. Deal to Avert Biodiesel Countervailing Duties?
Now would appear to be a good time for the Trump administration to consider offering Argentina a deal to avert imposition of the CVDs by agreeing to take a...
Hurricane Harvey and Cattle; China and U.S. Beef; USDA and the Dairy Program
It will take quite some time to determine the impact of Hurricane Harvey on cattle as well as that of U.S. beef exports to China. Meanwhile, USDA has chang...
Leaving Never Good; Non-Price Factors; Taxing Imports
Donald Trump has threatened three times this week to pull the U.S. out of NAFTA, but the Mexicans have a rebuttal. Separately, there are now undesired cons...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices for all crops on the Russian grain market plummeted with one exception. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat and feed grain prices followed global mar...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
One particular price development helped hold the crushing margin in China relatively steady last week as the average return came in at RMB 76/MT ($11.40/MT...
Market Commentary
Trading overnight and again during the day session were similar, while flooding from the heaviest storm-related rainfall ever to hit the continental U.S. h...
More Misinformed; Fueled Problems
Mark Twain famously said, “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.” Spin forward to today, and t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A Saudi consortium is said to be investing as much as $500 million in the redevelopment of 25,000 acres in one country along with what is said will be the...
Market Commentary
When summertime grain markets are weak due to perceptions of large crops and abundant supplies, they typically find seasonal lows during the last days of A...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Will Hurricane Harvey Lead to E15?
Could the policy response to the energy market disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey include E15, at least temporarily?Hurricane Harvey will be the first...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Flooding; Large U.S. Soy Inspections; Revised Forecasts for Brazil’s Soy Planted Area and India’s Soy Crop
Flooding once again threatens Argentine agriculture as it has slowed the harvesting and planting of two different crops, but another could also be af...
Will Wheat Market Blues Ever End?
If smaller U.S. supplies and a smaller carryout cannot stop the long-term U.S. wheat markets’ bearishness, it is fair to ask what can. Some potentially imp...
A Tough August for Corn Growers
Several factors were responsible for the corn market's August meltdown as funds were caught leaning the wrong way. Farmers and others who had been at least...
Overproduction Support; Canadian Walls
Donald Trump has made clear that he wants to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but today the U.S. and Mexican dairy industries decided that one need...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Hurricane Harvey is creating export challenges, but robust yield estimates keep pressuring grain and oilseed futures. The cattle and hog markets took diver...
Crop Insurance Under Fire
The federal crop insurance program is coming under fire as a new GAO study and a filed amendment for the pending ag appropriations bill both propose cuts t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean prices moved lower last week, prompting U.S. exporters to take steps to remain competitive. Meanwhile, Argentine corn exporters are...
Debt Limit Rhetoric in Context
There has been a great deal of news coverage as well as tweeting about the debt limit and what is at stake before the end of September when the situation w...
Market Commentary
This was somewhat of a strange trading day, much like one before a USDA report. The market wanted to see the Farm Journal (Pro Farmer) Crop Tour’s corn and...
The State of U.S. Wheat’s Competitiveness
It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in world markets, and there are many reasons why. Howe...
Pot Calls Kettle Black; Dangerous GMOs
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, speaking at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual policy meeting in Jackson Hole, gave warning against protection...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
In the past two years, India's poultry sector has had limited growth for reasons such as higher input prices (feed), low live chicken prices and overproduc...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Investors and Speculators
It may be appropriate and relatively easy to distinguish between investors and speculators in financial markets. However, no matter how the terms are defin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Biodiesel CVDs and U.S. Soy Crushers; Soy Export Sales; Crop Tour Update
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
Grain and soybean futures were slightly firmer in quiet and choppy overnight trading, and price action during the day session was mixed. The changes in ope...
Broken or Wrong; Dangerous or Effective; Wrong Worry
President Trump is peculiarly threatening a shutdown to extort funding out of Congress for his wall on the border with Mexico. However, that threat is flaw...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's rapeseed exports showed a notable change in MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat prices began to fall, mainly because of the revised USD...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Commerce Dept.'s announcement late yesterday of countervailing duties against biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia was the dominant news...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
With the new harvest quickly approaching, the market for previous years’ corn continues to experience downward pressure. However, there is also anoth...
Trump Bluster Bust; Countervailings; Underwhelming
Donald Trump proclaiming this week that he doubts a good NAFTA update can be negotiated and that he’ll “end up probably terminating” the agreement is a sha...
Food Fairness; Investigating is Legal; Ignominious Award
As the EU pursues a public comment period on the fairness of the food value chain, there are plenty of pitfalls ahead. Food Fairness As the EU pursues a pu...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crop Forecasts; Zimbabwean Soybeans; Peruvian Fish Meal; Canadian Canola
The drought that has substantially impacted the Dakotas and Montana this year has also been severe elsewhere. Now there is growing concern that output of a...
The Great Yield Debate of 2017
If there was one area of agreement for nearly all crop watchers, it would be that this year’s mixed-up and adverse weather made it very unlikely that 2017...