The U.S. has set a hard deadline on the U.S.-Mexico sugar trade talks, backed up by a possible re-imposition of duties on Mexican sugar. Will that be the d...
Articles
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Iraq’s Kurdish wheat farmers are very upset that the government only intends to buy 500,000 MT of their 1.8 MMT production. The government says that it doe...
Flawed; Sour; Wrong; Double-Dealing; Implications
Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso had earlier warned that the U.S. might not get as good a deal bilaterally with Japan than it would by simply rejoin...
Oilseed Highlights: EPA Approves Nematicide; Chinese Biotech Concerns; Brazil Soy Exports
Soybean processors and soyoil refiners in China are facing growing consumer resistance to purchasing soyoil from biotech soybeans, which could also have ra...
A Few Random Thoughts
As the new month begins, there are a number of concerns and issues related to agricultural production and/or trade.We begin the Merry Month of May, as the...
Congress Strikes Deal on Government Funding Package
Congress has struck a deal on a funding bill to keep the government open through the end of FY 2017, and it also addresses many ag policy issues that WPI h...
Ignorance and Contradictions
Newly-minted USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue needs to tell his Commerce Department counterpart Wilbur Ross to mind his own portfolio. Meanwhile, former USDA Se...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Spain was quiet last week with local old crop barley being the cheapest available feed grain. The feed wheat there is competitive versus corn...
A New Month, A New Market
Funds increased all their short positions last week in the face of what looked like a bullish weather outlook over the weekend. While it will be several we...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Farmer selling of corn in Argentina is still very slow and centered on nearby delivery months as well as expensive versus FOB prices. Exporters are paying...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
The funds started this week with a record-large short position in wheat, a big short in corn and moderate-to-small short positions in soybeans and soymeal...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Markets were mostly steady overnight with KC wheat higher. Soybeans traded with 1-2 cent losses much of the day and made a run at unchanged in the last few...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There are a number of issues, many weather-related, currently affecting crops in the U.S. and around the world.The Kansas wheat crop quality tour will take...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The federal government has issued recommendations for replacement of the old Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) Act. The aim is to remove the mid...
Volatility and Growth; Money, Money, Money; Crops and NAFTA
The future of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations remains uncertain given the ample number of distractions in both Washingto...
The U.S. Economy in March
How will the economy’s performance in March impact domestic food demand?Economic data for March has been compiled, and it shows a solid performance. That s...
CFTC-SEC Merger Proposal Rises Again
This merger concept tends to materialize in the wake of real or perceived financial crises, and it is being heard once more following the election of a hig...
Ag Review: Can Exports Save the Dairy Industry?
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s ex...
Trump’s Flip-Flop on NAFTA Withdrawal
A look at what is at stake for the meat, livestock, poultry and dairy sector with regard to NAFTA as well as if/how it might be renegotiated.As Gary Blumen...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Biodiesel Bill Introduced; Export Sales; Fishmeal Threatens Penguins
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
G-33 Miscalculates; Winners and Losers; Right and Wrong
The Group of 33 developing countries complained in Geneva that the Uruguay Round imposed “inequities and imbalances” between rich and poor countries. ...
Market Commentary
Trading was notably quieter overnight and today than has been the case during much of this week. While obviously nervous, markets are not quite sure what t...
Market Commentary
The day session saw trading volume fade some as the market tried to hang onto yesterday’s gains. There was more fund short covering in wheat, and those mar...
NAFTA Threat; Digitized Future
Withdrawing from NAFTA could lead to a trade war that will harm agriculture, and former Farm Bureau President Bob Stallman today emphasized a focus on impr...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s average domestic corn price rose RMB 14/MT ($2.03/MT) to RMB 1,632/ MT ($237.20/MT) last week, driven by tight supplies of new corn and sever...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic crude sunflower oil prices remained stable last week with current offers within $820-832/MT EXW. However, they are likely to start falli...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
All the potential weather adversity has seemed to finally awaken fund managers holding huge short futures positions in Chicago wheat and corn as well as a...
Confirmation Bias; Jousting Northward; Corn Irony
The Trump administration imposed punitive duties on softwood lumber imports from Canada, and some see it as an opening offensive ahead of NAFTA renegotiati...
Ag Weighs in on Tax Reform
Congress and the administration are preparing tax reform proposals to be considered this year. In that regard, the House Agriculture Committee convened a h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The MENA region has been the major destination for Black Sea wheat, but more of it is expected to flow elsewhere because of one development. Meanwhile, rep...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian, Argentine and Indian Soybean Plantings; Brazil’s Biotech Crop
Although most expect that the current disparity in Argentina's export taxes will be enough to cause farmers there to continue decreasing their soybean plan...
Increasing Market Volatility
The signs of budding potential weather scares are already beginning to show, and it seems quite likely that this will be another year when futures price vo...
Market Commentary
One would typically assume a slow planting pace coupled with what appears to be a very wet forecast would be supportive to corn and negative to soybeans. H...
A Few Surprises in Canada’s Acreage Estimates
Stats Canada released its first planting intentions estimates for 2017 last Friday, and there will be some enormous acreage swings in the U.S. neighbor thi...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Exchanging Youth; Wishy-Washy Standards; Circumstance Informs
The recent U.S. National Organic Standards Board meeting reportedly ended in confusion, revealing how the use of subjective standards gives rise to philoso...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean market was very active last week as four cargoes were traded, two CNF and two FOB. One full May shipment was traded at $0.98N CNF and...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record-High Placements for March
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While GOI is continuing to procure local wheat for the MY 2017/18 program, imports are still feasible despite the 10 percent duty with one particular origi...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight and in good volume. One development then continued to pressure corn today as wheat tried to mount a brief...
Overstated and Misunderstood; Self-Defeating Ag Policy
As if he’d never paid a second of attention to bilateral trade issues before running for president, Donald Trump suddenly realizes that Canada operates a s...
A Look at U.S., Canadian and World Barley Supplies
The 31 March USDA planting intentions reports indicated notable changes ahead for U.S. barley acreage, and there are several reasons why.Barley acres in th...
Federal Funding Deadline for Government Shutdown Nears
With the deadline to pass a federal funding bill in the offing, Congress is revisiting a strategy employed in 2014 that kept the government open.A week fro...
Market Commentary
In overnight trade, soybeans were helped by firmer Asian markets with corn and wheat prices also slightly higher. Daytime selling then pushed prices into t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Nationalism; TTIP; VAT Benefit
Donald Trump’s effort to initiate a “Buy American; Hire American” obligation is economic nationalism at its rawest, but it is hardly unique. Nationalism Ab...
Red Meat Recap and Margin Outlook; Cattle on Feed
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Oilseed Highlights: Road Problem in Brazil; Export Sales; The EU Protein Balance Sheet
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Two Sides to Every Story
There can be no denying that today’s supply/demand fundamentals tell a very bearish story, but there are factors, both real and potential, that just might...
China In-Country Analysis
China has set a goal of expanding its biofuel portfolio, not only to absorb the massive corn reserves but also to diversify its energy platform. However, i...
DEIP the Canucks; Trump PO’d at TPA
Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. David McNaughton may be correct that his country’s pricing policy on ultrafiltered milk may be WTO legal, but that doesn’t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkey's recently-introduced import duty on some agricultural products from Russia has reportedly already caused some damage in the sphere of its grain and...
Market Commentary
After trading an inside day, the soybean market managed to hold onto some of its small session gains with soyoil as the engine. Meanwhile, all three wheat...
Uneven Outlook for U.S. Wheat Classes
The 2017/18 crop cycle will be somewhat of an historic year for U.S. wheat in that the total area planted to all classes will be the smallest since 1919. M...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Smaller Birds, Bigger Demand
Broiler slaughter weights are below year-ago levels for the first time in three years, and demand is up ahead of the traditional seasonal growth trend.Acco...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA’s March Crush Volume; Canada’s Soybean and Canola Areas; Chinese Crush Margins and Soybean Prices
Leaders of Canada’s soybean industry expect the soybean plantings there will total 10 million acres by 2027. However, the sector has a notable problem with...
Market Commentary
Palm oil futures dropped another 1 percent overnight to a new eight-month low, which pulled soyoil futures down as well. Dalian corn and soy complex future...
Only American; State and Local; Reversals; Poor Luddites
Donald Trump’s recent reversals on foreign policy positions that he took during the campaign (NATO obsolete; Russia friend/China enemy; Syria unimportant)...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA-FAS indicates Turkey’s wheat stocks could drop to less than a two-week supply, the lowest level in more than 50 years. This is not totally attributabl...
Trump’s Twists; Mergers; Economy and Crops
This is a busy week with bilateral exploratory trade talks in Tokyo where American expectations are high and the Japanese are resistant as Prime Minister S...
Court Decision Makes Livestock Operations Report Air Emissions
The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals has reversed a Bush-era EPA rule that exempts livestock CAFOs from reporting air emissions, which could cost swine, poult...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
April and May corn basis have started to heat up in Argentina due to several factors. There are still some shorts in the market, and those with port logist...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Soybeans traded 5-6 cents higher early in the Sunday evening session, but those gains couldn’t be sustained either overnight or today. Corn followed the sh...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Wheat Market Still on Life Support
The primary reason for longer-term optimism in the wheat market is that U.S. planted wheat acreage will be the smallest since 1919, and there are two numbe...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU reported 231,000 MT of wheat were exported last week and once again corrected the previous week’s total. Now Turkey has been actively buying high pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China and U.S. Meat Exports; GIPSA Rule
China will increase its meat imports this year, potentially including U.S. beef. Meanwhile, USDA action this week has further delayed the livestock marketi...
Import Substitution; CAP War; Back to Bite; CRISPR’s Threat
Japan is proposing to remove food products from eligibility for duty-free entry under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). This is intended to addr...
Weather Scare Season
As the 2017/18 new crop cycle gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, it is inevitable that new weather scares will emerge to energize or torment market...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Indonesian Minister Says No Palm Oil to EU; Brazilian Corruption
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets ended this short trading week in fair fashion. Soybeans and corn closed higher, and wheat finished with the winter wheat cont...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Trump Manipulates Currency; Government Mishandles Data
U.S. government statistical agencies would like farmers to automatically share the data they collect via their electronic precision agriculture (PA) equipm...
China In-Country Analysis
China's monthly food inflation entered negative territory in February for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, prices for animal protein, including pork,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian oilseed prices continued to decline overall, but Ukraine's were mostly stable with just a few drops noted along with some increases. Its crude sunf...
Market Commentary
It was the day after the April WASDE, but the approaching long Easter weekend (CME grain markets are closed Friday) seemed to have had a greater impact on...
Senators’ Polling Numbers and the Farm Bill
Will political polling back home impact the Senate Agriculture Committee’s drafting of the farm bill?As former House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (D-Massac...
The April WASDE
USDA’s April WASDE unsurprisingly carried forward the theme of growing supplies of grains and soybeans in the U.S. and the entire world. While it is all to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Some of USDA’s fresh numbers released in today's April WASDE were tilted more bearishly than analysts predicted, but none were extreme enough to caus...
NAFTA Strategies; Self-Flagellation; Xenophobic Soda; Bombs for Beans
The government of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is still trying to figure out what to expect and how to position itself in the upcoming renegotiat...
Oilseed Highlights: Forecasts; South American Planting Intentions
Today’s USDA/WASDE report included several changes of pertinence to the oilseeds sector. Meanwhile, one particular development will challenge South America...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Grain experts in South Africa are saying that the very large increase in the maize crop there and drop in maize prices could push farmers into a money-losi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
U.S. Dairy Calls for Trade Action Against Canada
A new milk pricing regulation implemented in Canada on 1 April has the U.S. dairy industry calling for the Trump administration to take action against that...
100 Days’ High Risk; Le Pen Predictions; Automation
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping created a U.S.-China Comprehensive Dialogue that has 100 days to show progress or all hell breaks loose. Trump made a wise dipl...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU reported that 237,000 MT of soft wheat were exported last week as the total since the campaign started remains notably lower than a year ago. Meanwh...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market rebounded last Friday after nearly three weeks of steady declines, driven by the presence of one important variable. This week’s pr...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets were steady to a bit higher at the start of trading Sunday night. That trend continued through the night and into today’s o...
No Bullish News Tomorrow
USDA will release its April WASDE report with supply/demand revisions tomorrow, but it is almost impossible to make a case for why any of those numbers wil...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Following the landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, there is hope that the government will be able to move forward with p...
Ethanol Stocks at All-Time High
Ethanol stocks have hit a record high, while production is still exceeding 1 million barrels/day despite the seasonal slowdown.Ethanol production dropped s...
U.S. Corn Outlook
The 31 March USDA planting intentions report confirmed what most analysts expected. The big question is whether the acreage reduction will be enough to app...
Xi-Trump Summit; Missed Chance
The most notable outcome of the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is the lack of fireworks. Meanwhile, business groups developed a wish list...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets were unaffected by the events in the Middle East. Corn, wheat and soybeans all finished the night session within a penny of uncha...
Nominations; Government Shutdown
The U.S. Senate is now scheduled to vote on the nominations for USDA secretary and USTR after returning from the Easter recess. Notably, support for the la...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Open interest in corn, soybeans and wheat futures were all higher following yesterday’s activity, which suggests that noncommercials were adding to s...
Records for Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which showed the swine herd was still larger than a year ago despite a small drop during the December 201...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Parliament Says No Palm Oil for Biodiesel; More Rain in Argentina; Protest Blocks Brazilian Shipments; Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
U.S. Agriculture’s Stake in China
While U.S. relations with China are tense, due in no small part to President Trump’s harsh rhetoric and threats, U.S. grain and soybean producers have quit...
China In-Country Analysis
After closing out 2016 with a solid November and a record December, U.S. sorghum exports to China began 2017 by setting a new record for the month of Janua...
Slay Monetary Monster; Slay Agriculture Monster
Donald Trump will be tempted to raise the issue of currency manipulation when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but he would be barking up the wr...
Market Commentary
Aside from higher Asian futures levels and Chinese buyers’ rush to extend their coverage of Brazilian soybeans, a few troubling weather trends also brought...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's grain prices continued to fall due to domestic factors as well as Turkey’s introduction of an import duty, but Ukraine's grain prices remain...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Canada’s Fakery; Japanese Reality; Trump Jobs; TTIP Death
Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau warned New York business leaders at a World Economic Forum event against a proposed U.S. border adjustment tax. Mean...
Soybeans Move Further West and North
The westward movement of soybeans in the U.S. has been occurring for many years as hardier, shorter-season varieties have been developed. That is expected...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets struggled to find enough traction for a rally overnight and today. Corn, soybeans and wheat all traded above Monday’s closes at some...
The Battered Soybean Market
It is hard to recall when the soybean market has been so battered by an avalanche of bearish news and inputs over the course of a month’s time. However, th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey and Russia are expected to hold discussions soon regarding the rescinding of duty-free status for certain imports from the latter. The loss of those...
COOL a Priority for Both NAFTA and State Law
Just a year after country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) was repealed, beef and pork producers are seeing plans to revive it come from the Trump administration...
Federal Reserve Portfolio Management
The Federal Reserve has made clear that it recognizes the need to address its balance sheet. How it does this, though, remains the question.New York Federa...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures all started 2-3 cents higher Sunday evening and basically held at those levels for the balance of the night session. Chicag...
Trump Fumbles on China; Russia FDI; Other Trade
A pro-active liberalization agenda in Geneva by Russia would be out of character, and so its proposal on foreign investment is underwhelming, yet still uni...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Rains delayed soybean and corn harvest progress in South America last week, creating the possibility of significant market impacts later. The rally in CBOT...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
South Korea purchased 125,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for July/August shipment at an average price of $188.50/MT CNF, reflecting about $160/MT FOB...
The Soy Complex Must Fight Some Bearish Numbers
Last Friday’s USDA soybean quarterly stocks and planting intentions numbers were bearish, but there are several variables in the projections for next year...
Market Commentary
The morning trade reflected the expectations for today's USDA reports with corn and wheat continuing higher and soybeans lower. The amplitude of the market...
USDA Reports versus Expectations
The bearish acreage number for soybeans in today's USDA reports wasn't helped by the 1 March quarterly stocks estimate. Meanwhile, corn and wheat markets s...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Draft Outline for NAFTA Renegotiation
The Trump administration has prepared a draft letter notifying Congress of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, which spells out the objectives while pledging...
High Non-GMO Bar; Brexit and Trumpism
European Court of Justice Advocate General Michal Bobek had some difficult-to-swallow guidance for member states when it comes to GMOs – use science. High...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) addressed several trade matters as it issued decisions regarding import duties on wheat, pulses and sunflower seeds as well a...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Crackdowns May Drive Up Indian Soymeal Demand; Good Soy Exports
Crackdowns on unlicensed abattoirs (slaughterhouses) that had been slaughtering cattle have caused a widespread shortage of meat in several Indian states...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were lower overnight, receiving no help from Asian markets with Dalian meal and corn futures both weaker and Malaysian palm oil plungi...
Accounting for Hedges
The concept of establishing a futures position that was equal but opposite to a position in the cash commodity, first practiced by buyers and sellers of gr...
Cattle on Feed; McDonald’s Going to Fresh Beef
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
NAFTA Goals; Faulty WTO; Secession
A draft text of Trump administration negotiating objectives for modernizing NAFTA reflects an undramatic change from the Obama administration’s trade polic...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkey's introduction of import duties on certain goods from Russia has driven the latter to a nearby, alternate source for sunflower oil. Meanwhile, Ukrai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 March 2017Market TrendsPrices continued to fall due to domestic factors as well as Turkey’s introduction of import duties for...
Options Strategies for the Prospective Plantings Report
Given the market volatility that often follows the Prospective Plantings report, several options strategies exist to profit from extreme market movements...
Market Commentary
As might be expected with major USDA reports due mid-session Friday, trading was muted today with slow volume and small price changes. If there was a marke...
China In-Country Analysis
New shipment arrivals have helped restore the drop-off in imported soybean stocks that occurred through the first three weeks of March. As with soymeal inv...
Dairy Competition; Pest Friendly; No Brexit Trade; Unsweet
EU chief negotiator on Brexit Michel Barnier says there will be no trade deal with Britain if London decides to impose weaker regulations than the Continen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
It was a very dull day of trading in which commercials were largely hands off and funds were net buyers of minor quantities. Collectively, managed funds ha...
Oilseed Highlights: Biodiesel Antidumping Petition; Revised Soy Forecasts for Brazil; Argentine Soy Yields
The National Biodiesel Board (NBB) and U.S. biodiesel producers last week filed an antidumping petition with the Department of Commerce (DOC) and the U.S...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt has advised that the maximum allowable moisture level of 13.5 percent for imported wheat will be maintained until November 2017, at which time it wil...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
India Informs Trump; Kettle of Fish; Nominations/Economy
U.S. catfish farmers have spent years attacking the imported competition as being produced with harmful and illegal chemicals. Now a recent finding that ha...
Brazilian Meat Scandal in Perspective
While the effects of the Brazilian meat scandal are still unfolding, following are some perspectives on its impacts.While the effects of the Brazilian meat...
Influencing Grain and Soy Prices Ahead
This Friday’s USDA reports are an important influence on grain and soy price action for the next three months, but there are other factors looming that can...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Although Russian wheat prices continued to erode, the overall effects were tempered by a firmer ruble. Bulgarian farmers have started planting corn, but th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn has been the favorite of the South American market for the second week in a row with large volumes traded. The Argentine harvest advanced to 16 percen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
What Do We Do Now, Ollie?
Laurel & Hardy originally posed the question, “What do we do now, Ollie?” However, it remains relevant today for participants in the grain markets. Giv...
Market Commentary
The selling pressure continued across the wheat markets, and the soybean market was underwater all day today as the downtrend continues to gain some moment...
Perdue Confirmation Hearing Recap
Sonny Perdue’s confirmation hearing focused on budgets, crop insurance and trade, but it may still be some time before he’s finally confirmed and longer st...
Japan’s Leverage; Local Food Hoax
U.S. agriculture and industry hope to claw back the market access that they had come close to gaining in Japan with the TPP by negotiating the same terms i...
Soybean & Corn Export Forecasts Are Too Low
With enough corn and soybeans committed for export thus far in the marketing year to account for 98.5 and 83 percent of USDA’s projections, respectively, U...
Usitc Petitioned To Look At Biodiesel Dumping In U.S.
The biodiesel industry filed an antidumping and countervailing duty petition against Argentina and Indonesia, just as the EU did in 2013, and is now recons...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is facing a possible tight sugar supply situation with lower-than-expected production and higher-than-expected demand. India is considering import du...
No Honor; Regulators Trusted
Reducing greenhouse gas emission while concurrently growing economically is difficult, thus encouraging cheating or changing the rules. Elsewhere, green gr...
Market Commentary
Corn and soy complex markets were weaker to finish the week as fund selling continued. Chicago wheat gained on fund buying relating to improving export pro...
DDGS Outlook
Despite a prolonged struggle to gain higher prices, DDGS merchandisers are reporting significant buying interest when FOB prices near $150/MT. WPI’s econom...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Job Challenges; Agribusiness Structure
Different policy impacts of different cabinet appointments create outsized contrasts to confirmation hearings. Elsewhere, the KC Fed focuses on agribusines...
World Wheat Trade Risks
Whether the search for a suitable risk management tool for Black Sea wheat will ever exist is unclear, though the competition to create such an instrument...
Brazilian Meat Scandal, Growth in U.S. Red Meat Consumption
A meat inspection bribery scandal has taken one of the world’s largest meat exporters out of the global market – the same exporter who gained when the U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
In spite of bullish Export Sales report numbers for corn and soybeans, lack of commercial support left grains and oilseeds market drifting lower. Today’s r...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Golden Goose; Notable Studies
Mexico is threatening to retaliate against adverse trade measures adopted by the Trump administration, and U.S. agriculture is justifiably concerned. Mexic...
Market Commentary
Technical support helped soybean futures prices bounce off of session lows by 4-5 cents as they traded both sides before closing. Meanwhile, wheat futures...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s estimated soymeal inventory totaled 773,300 MT as of 10 March, a significant drop from the previous week and even more so from a year ago. Lo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While most Ukrainian feed grain prices remained stable, feed barley and corn prices moved in different directions. However, Russian grain prices continued...
The Market’s Waiting Game
The period between the March WASDE and 31 March stock/acreage reports often finds markets struggling to find anything approaching excitement. One might rea...
Oilseed Highlights: Fewer Indian Soy Plantings; Paraguay’s Big Soy Crop; Indonesian Biodiesel; Slow China Biotech Approvals
The American Chamber of Commerce in China complained this week about the government’s slow approval process regarding new biotech crops, which most notably...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey's imports of Russian wheat are no longer considered to be duty-free, according to some sources, which could lead to a 130 percent tariff. Meanwhile,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China NME and VAT; Acting, Nominated and PAS
The U.S. and the EU argued in Geneva that they should not be required to treat China as a market economy despite a commitment to do so back when it initial...
Market Commentary
Soybeans traded slightly lower overnight as did corn and wheat. After trading resumed in the day session, commercial buying of soyoil futures sparked a ral...
Ag Review: 2017 Cow/Calf Profitabitiy Outlook
WPI Agribusiness Subsector OutlookWPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future...
Reading the Fed’s Notes
The Federal Open Market Committee moved to raise the federal funds rate at its most recent meeting, but everything else remained status quo.Following up on...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat prices were lower last week on farmer selling and lack of export demand. Soyoil is now priced at a discount to sunflower oil, ending an ext...
Market Commentary
Hot, dry weekend weather drove the wheat market higher in the overnight session, though more moderate weather forecasts issued today pulled the market back...
Go Status Quo; Supply Restrictions
There is no such thing as free trade but Germany and Japan are calling for a concerted effort to defend it. Elsewhere, the U.S. considers joining the EU, Z...
Meeting Season is Over
Despite bearish prices and long-term weather forecasts for U.S. crops, farmers’ attitudes are not bad. Re-energized with a focus on basic farm management a...
Ethanol Exports Facing Potential Problems in 2017
Ethanol exports are starting the year strong, but there is some uncertainty in major markets.The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASD...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s corn market was active this week and the advancing harvest pressured FOB prices where premiums for 15-March fell to $0.46K. The soybean harvest...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's wheat prices dropped at the start of this year's harvest, gradually increased and then stabilized at about Rs.17,000/MT ($250/MT) at the spot marke...
Accounting for the Trump Budget
The Trump budget plan for USDA is long on cuts and short on specifics.The Trump administration sent a partial budget proposal to Capitol Hill yesterday, wh...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly lower overnight in light trading volume, and that pattern didn’t change much during today’s session. Soybeans were 3-4 cent...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
G-20 Language Knot; Conservation Sacrifice; Unsafe Language
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made clear at the G-20 meeting that the Trump administration does not want a trade war and merely seeks fairness in...
The “Dead” Zone and Market Issues
Markets are now in the midst of a two-three week “dead” zone as there is simply very little to inspire trade movement in either direction. There are, thoug...
Budget to Trim Statistical Capabilities of USDA; More HPAI Discovered
The president’s budget and the HPAI situation both have good news and bad news for the industry. Budget to Trim Statistical Capabilities of USDA The White...
Oilseed Highlights: Mixed USDA Export Sales Report; NOPA’s Surprise Crush; Brazil’s Farm Subsidies
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices traded a bit higher overnight in sort of a delayed reaction to the U.S. dollar’s weakness surrounding the Fed’s announcement Wednesday...
Mis-Prophets of Agriculture; Worse to Come; Cabinet Schedule
Europe’s anti-chemical warriors are aghast that the European Chemicals Agency gave glyphosate a clean bill of health – it is not carcinogenic to consumers...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Reflation Trade and Reality
Pursuit of now-President Trump’s policy agenda seemed to promise that the rate of inflation, essentially stagnant since 2009, would very likely begin to ri...
Market Commentary
Grain and soybeans traded slightly higher overnight for the most part, and trading volume was modest. Those trends carried over into the day session as the...
China In-Country Analysis
A combination of low commodity prices and an early Chinese New Year helped U.S. agricultural exports to China reach new heights in January. Meanwhile, Chin...
Loss Leader; No Threat
U.S. farmers were happy this week with word that China had bought significant quantities of their corn. However, it involves a slight bit of substitution...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Under the influence of world market trends, Ukraine's soybean prices showed a significant change last week. Meanwhile, the proximity of the next planting s...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Trump Budget Coming to Capitol Hill
President Trump will send his proposed budget to Capitol Hill on Thursday of this week, setting the stage for a potential government shutdown in April.The...
Reaping Commitments; Reorg Hurdles; Oversimplification
Fearing Trump-induced trade wars and being sacrificed in favor of factory jobs, U.S. agriculture groups primed Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Ro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures prices weakened again under pressure from the harvesting of a record Brazilian crop and clear evidence that buyers are focusing on that ori...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent report in South Africa indicated that the poultry industry needs expanded production of feed maize and soybeans in order to help control prices. W...
Oilseed Highlights: Growing Soymeal Demand; More Planting Forecasts
Despite all the turmoil in the MENA region over the past two decades, soymeal consumption there has continued to rise. This is largely attributable to one...
Wheat Market Puzzles
If U.S. wheat futures prices and cash values are higher during the forthcoming wheat year because of the small domestic crop, will world wheat traders and...
Searching for Clues From the Federal Reserve
A rate hike resulting from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting is almost a foregone conclusion, but there is more to look for from the Fed’s actions.It wil...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Activity in Argentina's FOB corn market is totally focused on nearby shipments (March, April and May). Prices for April shipment heated up as many of those...
U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Still in Trouble
U.S. winter wheat acres will be the smallest in 107 years, and conditions in two key states suggest no reason to expect improvement in production numbers a...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
After three months of constantly rising prices, the Black Sea milling wheat market has finally turned lower for several reasons. Meanwhile, Bulgarian feed...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Schedule Negotiation; CAP Simplification; Chemical Attacks
The renegotiation of NAFTA is going well. Mexican Minister of the Economy Ildefonso Guardardo Villarreal says all three countries will be ready to sit down...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower to start this week and seem firmly entrenched in last week’s pattern. Prices were slightly down overnight, but wheat turned sharply lowe...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The revival in Indian protein meal exports has had a positive impact on the domestuc soymeal price. It was $342/MT on 9 March 2017, a 29.77 percent drop fr...
Market Commentary
Markets were easier overnight and today following Thursday’s slightly bearish USDA report, good South American harvest weather and a poor technical outlook...
Ag Japan Mumm; Navarro’s Mirage; Vote on TPP
In economic-speak, National Trade Council Advisor Peter Navarro is genuinely paranoid. The view he expressed to a group in Washington is analogous to the p...
Farm Bill Tidbits
Farm bill proposals are emerging from producer groups and legislators alike, but there are questions. Will USDA put forth a farm bill plan? Will acreage id...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Although the market can now put the South American soybean crop in the rearview mirror, one potential problem remains. Meanwhile, the U.S. southern Plains...
Dairy Margin Protection Program Reforms for Feed Costs
House Ag Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) outlined the key areas for the next farm bill at the recent Commodity Classic and indicated the indus...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Report’s Oilseed-Related Changes; Revised Brazilian Soybean Crop Forecasts
USDA made relatively few major changes in its supply and distribution estimates for oilseeds today, but a couple were quite significant. Meanwhile, two oth...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
The March WASDE
The trade expected a more-or-less bearish tone from USDA’s March WASDE, and that is what it got. However, the overall tone is probably louder than most ant...
Dissecting Japan and Europe; Subsidizing Competitors; Lowly in Rome
Eastern European members complaining that food companies sell inferior products in their part of the EU should be informed by the American experience. Diss...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were lower overnight in lackluster, low volume trade. Then today’s USDA WASDE with its larger Brazilian and Argentine production, lar...
Chinese Chuckles; U.N. Dupe; G-20 Fake News
North Korea is ignoring Beijing by firing off missiles and holding Malaysians hostage after being caught red-handed in an assassination in their country. T...
Market Commentary
From the limited price action, it is clear that the market is not expecting big changes from tomorrow’s March WASDE. There is some sentiment that USDA migh...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices started falling, more noticeably when expressed in USD due to weakening of the ruble. Meanwhile, Ukraine's grain market saw prices mos...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s corn market showed some signs of recovery last week as the average domestic price rose RMB 18/MT ($2.61/MT) to RMB 1,505/MT ($218.43/MT). It...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt advises that a new project to establish a database of all poultry production in the country, covering as many as 250 million birds, is intended to ai...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Crop Estimates Revised; More Indian Soymeal Exports; Russia Soymeal Shortage
It has been reported that Russia is experiencing a shortage of soymeal that is likely to worsen in the future. This is a result of certain government...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Energy Trade Under NAFTA
While there has been much focus on manufactured goods and agriculture, there is one sector of North American trade that has been largely overlooked in term...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices eased back into the red during the early morning hours. Those weaker prices then carried over to the day session when the market’s att...
Transatlantic Thrashings; China Bashing; Counterintuitive
Activist groups in Europe are upset about new reports that reveal high levels of acrylamides in biscuits and French fries. Fortunately, there is a solution...
A Conflicted Soybean Market
Despite the large fund investment in the soybean market, soybean futures prices have stayed in a trading range during the past two months that reflects the...
More Competition for the Dakotas’ Soybeans
While soybean production continues to expand rapidly in the Dakotas, the only processing plant located in either state is in Volga, South Dakota. However,...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The trade is interested in buying Bulgarian/Romanian feed wheat for July/August at €157/MT ($167/MT) FOB. While Ukrainian origin might be available at the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Activity in Brazil’s soybean market remains concentrated in the spot, but the Chinese are placing bids on March, April and, eventually, part of May positio...
SWAT Event; CAP Reform; Process Labeling
There is plenty of division as EU agriculture ministers began debate today on the post-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. Farmers want simplification and no...
HPAI Outbreak Confirmed in Tennessee
In a rare Sunday public statement, USDA’s APHIS yesterday announced the discovery of a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on a commercial b...
Market Commentary
Wheat actually led the grains complex higher as soybeans and corn turned lower. The KC-Chicago wheat spread remains strong with higher values likely given...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Corn traded mostly steady today with light volume. PNW corn export basis was up 15 cents overnight with most of that likely the result of logistics issues...
Top Seven Reasons Why RFS Reform Will Happen in the 115th Congress
RFS reform is gaining congressional attention, if not momentum.As Gary Blumenthal wrote this week (see Ag Perspectives, 1 March), Representative John Shimk...
Reversals: Fortunes; Perspective and Production
This week agricultural trade specialists gathered in Washington to lament the current atmosphere created by the Trump presidency and its risk to the sector...
Big Insurance Guarantee for Soybeans
A comparison of today’s calculations with those of 2011 provides insight into one of the driving forces behind the rapid escalation in land values du...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat prices have softened quite a bit in the past five weeks as imports have been good. While there has been no official announcement yet, it is being spe...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Oilseed Highlights: Pace of U.S. Soy Sales; Revised Forecasts for Brazilian Soy Crop and EU Rapeseed Crop
With Brazil now aggressively exporting new crop soybeans, yesterday’s USDA report indicated U.S. export sales of soy continued at the expected pace. Meanwh...
Market Commentary
Prices continued to slide lower during the day session. Fund buying largely subsided, and some of the light-footed funds were selling back limited amounts...
The Tale of Three Crops
With market attention soon shifting to prospects for the new crop year, it is worth noting some of the “big picture” fundamental similarities and differenc...
Hyperbolic; 15 March; Aid; Conflict; Naked Farming
Newly-installed Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has indicated that Congress will be officially notified on 15 March that a renegotiation of NAFTA is being s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Pork and Chicken Surprises; Chicken Price Index Dropped
Year-to date-pork production is down from expectations, and chicken production is off to a fast start. Where’s the Pork? Pork packer margins have dropped p...
China In-Country Analysis
Despite a decline in the landed price of imported soybeans to $425/MT last week from $435/MT the previous week, the crush margin remained under significant...
Market Commentary
Funds were active buyers again today. The ethanol situation grabbed the headlines, but there were a few other bullish straws in the wind to help support th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachov has forecast the country’s MY 2016/17 grain exports at about 37 MMT, a drop from the ministry’s previo...
RFS Rewrite; Paid Diversion; USA Void
Donald Trump is pulling the U.S. back from its international commitments, and the result is that it is strengthening the roles of other countries and regio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Jonesing; WTO Failure; Ethanol; WOTUS; Cuts; Infrastucture
The U.S. maritime industry needs to start supporting national defense and stop hiding behind it while the WTO needs to educate its poorer members – and Don...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
The 2017/18 U.S. Corn Outlook
WPI releases its first forecast for the 2017/18 U.S. corn crop with planted area and yield above USDA estimates. Ending stocks are forecast...In conjunctio...
Market Commentary
Markets raged higher on rumors of biofuels regulation reform from the White House, while large deliveries were noted against many grain futures contracts...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent Rabobank report says the poultry industry will grow more than 60 percent over the next 20 years, but the expansion will be far greater percentage-...
Ag Review: Farm Equipment Outlook 2017
2016 Agribusiness Performance Recap and 2017 OutlookWPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expec...
Oilseed Highlights: Muddy Roads Delay Brazilian Soy Shipments; EU Compound Feed Production
The European Feed Manufacturers Association (FEFAC) indicates compound feed production in the EU-28 declined 1 percent in 2016 to 153.4 MMT, largely becaus...
Future Biofuels Policy Clear as Mud
Erroneous news leaks regarding biofuels policies sent commodity markets on a wild ride and prompted a rebuttal from the American Petroleum Institute. Amid...
A Big One Falls
One of North Dakota’s largest farmers filed a Chapter 7 bankruptcy petition recently. Most will blame the collapse on the downturn in commodity prices. Whi...
Wars: Food; Labor; Science
The U.S. farm sector is nervous about Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal laborers. Those workers may account for half the labor in sectors such as dairy...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting corn in a few weeks. They will probably reduce that acreage after suffering from low yields during the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
After the corn harvest delays of last year, most Argentine exporters cut their programs for March shipment in order to reduce high demurrage rates should t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Tomorrow is first notice for delivery against the March futures contracts, and markets are expecting heavy deliveries in Chicago wheat and soyoil. It is al...
China Plans High-Value, Improved Quality, Large-Scale Agriculture
China's so-called Number 1 Document has been released, which is focused on agriculture and rural policy. While reaffirming some key policies already in pla...
Do Smaller U.S. Ending Supplies Signal a Price Shift?
The market was particularly interested in USDA's 2017/18 U.S. supply and demand estimates of today, which have to be considered at least somewhat price pos...
Advantage or Threat; Warring Ministers; Regionalism
A WTO appellate panel unsurprisingly ruled against Russia and its total prohibition of EU pork and pigs due to localized outbreaks of swine fever. The juri...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight with corn and wheat slightly lower and soybeans slightly higher. That trend continued today, but the losses in one market acce...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
OPEC Production Impact on U.S. Crude Supply
OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia and Iraq, actually increased production in advance of the 1 January 2017 implementation of their agreement to r...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's production of milk, egg and poultry meat continues to grow, but most of that is consumed by a simultaneously expanding population. However, its buf...
Market Commentary
Trading overnight saw grain and soy prices drift lower with expectations of bearish projections from USDA. The day session produced more of the same, which...
U.S. Soybean Industry to Focus on Sustainability and Higher Value
The United Soybean Board, the national soybean checkoff organization, has approved a new five-year strategic plan aimed at increasing the value and competi...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Cattle on Feed Report with a New Format
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Outlook Acreage Projections
USDA always holds its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in late February. Among other things, there has been great interest in learning its latest views on...
Surprise China Plan; Alamo Stance on Corn; EU’s Trumps
U.S. Ambassador to China nominee and Iowa Governor Terry Branstad was not expected to say anything about China when he made a keynote address today at USDA...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices kept rising due to active demand from traders and exporters as well as limited offer of tradable lots from producers. Meanwh...
Farm Bill Stress; BAT Attack; SNAP Judgement
So-called experts and analysts are fighting with contradictory analyses over a proposed border adjustment tax (BAT) in the U.S., and how currency exchange...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
A combination of certain factors continued to push down China's wholesale hog prices in February. Other developments are having an impact on the structure...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volumes in grain and soy were lower than recent evening sessions. One reason for the diminished volume likely stemmed from less active an...
Market Commentary
Trading volume last evening was good, especially for soybeans as the complex responded to higher soymeal prices traded at China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Playing Around with Managed Funds
Without a pipeline into the thinking of fund managers who have decided to re-enter the long side of the agricultural futures market in a major way, even af...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian and Australian Canola Crop Forecasts; More Biodiesel in Brazil; Mexico’s Soybean and Corn Imports
While several recent articles have cited officials in Mexico arguing that the country should shift away from the U.S. as its main supplier of soybeans and...
Non-Reorganization; Trade Disputes; Notable Research
India is seeking a WTO dispute settlement panel to rule against subsidy and local content requirements for renewable energy in some American states. The U...
Farm Balance Sheet Impact on Planting and the Farm Bill
What will continued low crop prices and debt accumulation mean for production and policy?Macroeconomic factors in 2016 (i.e., uneven global economic growth...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Maize and sorghum prices in eastern Africa are at record levels due to last year’s severe drought. Meanwhile, one organization has warned of an infestation...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI released the second Agricultural Production Advance Estimates this week, which indicated an approximate 8.11 percent increase in farm output versus las...
Market Commentary
Corn followed the soybean market lower with fund selling the primary ingredient. The market wasn’t willing to extend long bets ahead of this three-day week...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
China Controls World Food; Create Demand; Europe?
Noted China agriculture analyst Fred Gale observes that Beijing’s latest policy for the sector is to renationalize food and seek world domination, which is...
A Glimmer of Hope in the Wheat Market?
The wheat markets have been solidly bearish for what seems like an eternity. Although the world has produced four consecutive record wheat crops, that is s...
Yesterday Without Immigrants
A planned work boycott by immigrant employees had an impact on the meat-packing sector.Immigration policy has been a contentious issue for years, but agric...
Oilseed Highlight: Argentine Action on Soy Export Tax; Brazil’s Land Sales to Foreigners
The Brazilian finance minister indicated yesterday that the government will make an announcement in the next 30 days regarding changes to its laws governin...
Clear Trade Policy Agenda; Healthy Bias
U.S. Senate Finance Committee Democrats complain that after a meeting yesterday with White House Trade Council Director Peter Navarro, they still don’t kno...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
USDA’s 10-Year Baseline Assumptions
As it does each year in advance of its annual Outlook Forum in February, USDA today released a report that outlines the numerous assumptions used to constr...
Livestock Price Outlook
Both the beef and swine herds are in expansion mode, but cattle and hogs are looking at different price forecasts compared with last year.Cattle prices end...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw prices ease back from yesterday’s rally levels, but that session’s results did not prepare the market for today’s wave of long liquid...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that 23.088 MMT of grain had been exported as of 8 February and from the beginning of MY 2016/17, down slightl...
Market Commentary
CME prices started to drift a bit lower overnight in slowing volume as concerns about the growing avian flu problem in China caused Dalian prices for corn...
TEA Not BAT, Truth Slip; Food Police and Grandma
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe was out of the bromance embrace of Donald Trump when his finance minister, Taro Aso, let the truth slip about currency m...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
From mid-January through the end of the month, China’s estimated soymeal inventories fell sharply due to a combination of factors. Meanwhile, the ave...
What If NAFTA Renegotiations Trigger a Corn War?
President Trump has promised or threatened, depending on one’s perspective, to renegotiate NAFTA. However, most U.S. ag groups have communicated their rese...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: More Insect Meal and Oil Output Planned; Top Indian Soymeal Export Market; U.S. DDGS Exports Fall; Leading Province in Brazil’s Soy Production Growth
After a much-improved soybean crop in 2016, India has returned to being a significant soymeal exporter. USDA is forecasting it will export 1.8 MMT in 2016/...
Trump Ag Speaks; USAID Concerns; OECD Water
A Trump administration agriculture official addressed a meeting of private sector industry representatives today and made several notable points. Trump Ag...
Market Commentary
Markets had a softer tone overnight, but trading volume did remain quite heavy for the evening session. The big fund buying that has been present the past...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The annual inflation rate in Egypt jumped to 24.3 percent in December, the highest it has been in seven years and more than double the 2015 level. This was...
What Will Help Push Soybean Acres Higher?
The market has been assuming U.S. producers will boost soybean plantings by at least 4 million acres and perhaps as much as 5 or 6 million. While the reaso...
Trumplomacy; Comitology 3.0
While one expected things to go well between Trump and the UK’s Theresa May, his bromance this past weekend with Shinzō Abe remains a mystery to many tryin...
The Fundamental Truth
The fact that the notable reductions of world stocks estimates in the February WASDE are still not enough to prevent record-large levels seems to underline...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
FOB prices were steady this week, while corn became the commodity with movement as several trades were reported. Asian consumers and trading houses are ver...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Bulgaria and Romania is firm in sympathy with the MATIF rally. Both countries still have about 10 percent of the total surplus, and the cheap...
First Year of Macri Ag Policies Leads to Argentine Natural Gas Boom
President Mauricio Macri began his efforts to encourage innovation in agriculture, increase exports and boost rural economies upon assuming office in...
Market Commentary
The lower CME prices overnight ran counter to price trends at China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange. As day trading commenced, fund bids put a floor under pric...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While too early to know whether India’s oil meal exports are rebounding, domestic demand is growing, especially for de-oiled rice bran (DORB).That open mar...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The economic plight of farmers across the southern Plains simply doesn't exists throughout U.S. production agriculture. In fact, the sector’s overall finan...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly firmer in the night session with soybeans resuming the lead higher. The markets then opened at new highs when the day session got rol...
Trump Conundrum; Wheat Non-Compete
U.S. Wheat Associates and the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association ought to view each other as competitors and thus show little willingness to help t...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Trade Economics in the 1980s and Today
U.S. trade policy is being developed to reduce the national trade deficit, but there is one factor more important to consider than the trade balance.As dis...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soymeal and Soyoil Exports; Few WASDE Changes; Brazilian Soybean Problem
The large soymeal export sales of the past two weeks were made possible by lower prices that were partially caused by a glut of DDGS in the domestic market...
Naked Farming; Mexican Market; Farm Situation
A petition has been launched in Europe that would require the European Commission to consider a complete ban on the use of glyphosate as well as mandatory...
Market Commentary
Generally, traders expected a less-than-bullish February WASDE from USDA today. Perhaps that is why two unexpected changes seemed to generate an outsized r...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
U.S. Beef, Pork and Poultry Exports in 2016; Trump-Abe Meeting
USDA data confirmed last year’s beef, pork and poultry exports all increased over 2015, and one category showed exceptional growth. Meanwhile, U.S. produce...
The February WASDE
February WASDEs are seldom described as market-changing, and today’s release was no exception. However, it did contain a number of adjustments of interest...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. pork shipments to China in December helped push the total volume for all of 2016 to 363,121 MT at a total value near $715 million. Meanwhile, the outl...
Pre-WASDE Soybean Positions
Traders holding short soybean positions before tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report should not be overly concerned by today’s bullish price action.Comparing the fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Sunflower seed prices on Ukraine's domestic market kept growing because of several factors as FOB offers were stable. Meanwhile, Vietnam has recently becom...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures continued to show strength as they ended overnight trade about 8 cents higher. That rally persisted during the day session while the grains...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Fear-Driven Exports; Skewed Trade Sought
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) needs another big economy within the trade pact since the U.S. dropped out, and the Australians solicited the Chinese t...
An Unhappy Outlook for U.S. Wheat
It would not be fair or accurate to call wheat a minor U.S. crop, but it seems headed in that direction due to wheat prices that have been low enough to de...
Market Commentary
After uninspiring overnight trade, grain and soy prices did manage to climb higher soon after the day session began. Soybeans and meal were supported by fu...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Quick History of the Farm Bill and Federal Budget
There is federal budget pressure on the 2018 Farm Bill. Unlike with most past farm bills, though, it could be real this time.Since 1977 when the then-named...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent British report on the maize-damaging fall armyworm in Africa states that the entire continent could suffer from outbreaks within a very few years...
Oilseed Highlights: Russia Threatens Brazilian Soy Imports; Argentina and Brazil Eye Mexican Market
The well-publicized feud between U.S. President Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto over trade and immigration has received the attention of Arg...
Mending Transatlantic; Supply Management
Last week’s policy proclamations by the National Farmers Union in the U.S. proved that the organization is persistent and consistent in its decades-long ad...
Agriculture Refugees; New China Policy; Trade and Grain Priorities
European leaders are on edge over the prospect that Donald Trump’s intention to block refugees from certain countries will increase the numbers heading ins...
Farmland Values Stay High, Saving Farm Balance Sheets
While U.S. farmland values soared during the big bull market that lasted from 2006 through 2013, all good things must end. However, the overall declines ha...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Offers of feed wheat are very difficult to find in Ukraine, and none are available in Romania and Bulgaria. The only available origin in the Black Sea is R...
Executive Order: Get One New Federal Regulation, Lose Two Existing Ones
President Trump has issued an executive order that requires every agency adopting a new regulation to identify two existing ones to be eliminated. This cou...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures traded slightly lower last night, and that same pattern held true throughout today. Meanwhile, there were several reasons cited for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil has good soybean demand for deferred positions, partially driven by certain issues in the U.S. PNW. However, it is difficult to obtain offers. Some...
Washington, DC Political Chatter
Presenting a roundup of those political issues of interest to agriculture...Following is an end-of-the-week roundup of some of the politic issues of intere...
The Pulse Explosion
Pulses have been around for thousands of years and are the staple food in India. These crops have been grown in very small parts of the U.S. since the 1950...
Japan Rebuff; NAFTA and Farm Bill Rewrite
Donald Trump will reportedly push for a bilateral trade deal with Japan when he meets next week with Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, but the idea may not be war...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight. The soy complex then joined wheat and corn when this morning's session opened by trading lower. Although there again wasn't a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2017/18 budget was released early and includes several notable provisions that will help the agriculture sector. Left out, however, was any signifi...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Staring Into the Unknown
A new and different market environment will face grain futures market fundamentalists and technical traders alike as the Trump administration seems likely...
Implications of EU Policy; Overwrought; Rich off Ugly
The EU’s Agriculture Commission will reportedly present five options next week for revising the Common Agricultural Policy. Among them is a focus on...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Large U.S. Soymeal Sales; Caterpillar Emergency in Brazil, Soyoil-Based Graphene
Today’s USDA export sales report brought some good news to the U.S. soy sector in the form of larger-than-expected soymeal export sales last week. Meanwhil...
Market Commentary
It may have seemed that grain and soy futures markets took the day off. While prices veered very slightly lower overnight, they then traded both sides duri...
Cattle Expansion Impact on Beef Production; Pork Demand and Profitability
USDA released its annual Cattle Inventory report this week, which showed the cattle herd expanded enough in 2016 to impact beef production through 2018. Me...
Messy Trade Debate
Until the Trump era, the U.S. served as the world’s leader in promoting free trade. Now it is being treated like a pariah for suggesting the playing field...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wth 13.1 percent more grain stocks as of 1 January than a year ago, the forecast for Russia's MY 2016/17 grain exports has been increased again. Meanwhile,...
U.S. Export Competitiveness in Five Charts
Drivers of U.S. soybean, corn, wheat, soymeal and sorghum export opportunities are discussed with a view toward the long run.While large export volumes sur...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s corn overhang coupled with its removal of state support wreaked havoc on U.S. exports of both DDGS and sorghum throughout 2016. However, the...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade saw moderate volume and some modest weakening of grain and soy prices. The weaker prices prevailed at the resumption of trade this morning...
Oilseed Highlights: Limited Biodiesel Feedstocks; Philippines’ Higher Soymeal Imports; Tight Rapeseed Supplies in Europe
The National Biodiesel Board believes reinstatement of the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit and issuing payments to producers instead of blenders will allow...
Two Reasons Brent Crude Will Remain Under $60
The EIA’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent Crude oil prices will be steady through 2018 and unable to break the $60 ceiling.The U.S. Energ...
Market Commentary
The question going into last night’s trading session was whether the soy complex and grains could mount some sort of turnaround from yesterday’s sharp decl...
U.S. Corn Outlook
It is worth taking a fresh look at the fundamental U.S. supply/demand outlook for 2016/17 since what happens throughout the balance of this year will have...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has forecast that maize plantings will increase 31 percent in 2017 with those of white maize up by 53.5 perce...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
What Will Canada’s Farmers Plant in 2017?
Numerous sources north of the border suggest Canadian farmers’ 2017 planting intentions could involve a shift similar to what may occur in the U.S. Numerou...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
There are currently no signs of significant winterkill in Eastern Europe, and the soil moisture is adequate in most of the region. If there is no serious w...
More from Scott Pruitt on the RFS
Scott Pruitt, nominated to be EPA administrator, was pressed to provide more substantive answers regarding the RFS by senators who will eventually be votin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Despite Argentina's current corn prices ($150-155/MT) along with a record production (35-36 MMT) forecast and expectations that the exchange rate will not...
Democracy versus Science; Border Tax
The European Union’s commissioners will consider a change this Wednesday in the rules as to how GMOs are considered for approval; there is great frustratio...
Market Commentary
Markets opened lower Sunday evening, and soybean futures were down more than a dime overnight. The soy complex then suffered the brunt of today’s generally...
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policy: Buy High, Sell Low
The U.S. Department of Energy is beginning to award contracts for sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which will continue for th...
What About Minor Crops in 2017?
Soybeans clearly surpass every other cropping choice based on current new crop prices, but there are many so-called minor crops that will also be impacted...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The corn price for delivery to a starch plant in Gujarat is currently $226/MT, and availability is poor. While starch manufacturers could ensure receipt of...
Market Commentary
Fireworks may be the key feature of the Chinese New Year celebration, but they were not present at the CBOT today. Trading today was largely “low and slow,...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Exports Impact Economy; Argentine Soy Crop; Indonesian Palm Oil Export Tax
The level of U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2016 and first two months of the fourth quarter have been attributed to the level of the country'...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
While corn prices drifted lower amid fears that trade with Mexico might be disrupted by tariffs on Mexican imports to pay for the border wall President Tru...
More Evidence of Strong Pork Demand; Super Bowl Wing Consumption
The biggest drawdown of pork stocks in cold storage of any December has spurred producers to reiterate the importance of trade. Meanwhile, a forecast of U...
Agricultural Trade Anxiety
It seems clear that President Trump’s view of trade mostly involves manufactured products and the raw materials needed for manufacturing. Publicly, he has...