USDA estimates that U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 3 percent from a year ago on June 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.96 million head - 5...
Articles
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 9-15, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 109,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024, were offset by reductions for the Philippi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Updated Weather Forecast; Cattle on Feed Report Surprises
Weather remains the primary driver of the major CBOT markets and Friday’s shift in the forecasts to feature more Corn Belt rains in the next two week...
Cattle on Feed: Placements Higher than Consensus Expectation - Again
USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 June wa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.88/bushel, down $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.465/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights – Weather Roller Coaster
The Market It was a volatile week that started with price spikes on fears of a devastating drought but then sharply reversed on prospects for improved mois...
Day Late and a Dollar Short; Harder than it Appears; Spinning the Truth
Day Late and a Dollar Short House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Ranking Democrat Earl Blumenauer (Oregon) has introduced legislation reauthorizing th...
Market Commentary: Correction on a Glimmer of Hope
Generally, the higher they rise the harder they fall but today’s correction on a still murky weather report ended with some restraint from going comp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $6.2075/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $7.39/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...
Geopolitics Trumps Trade; Sinking into Oblivion
Geopolitics Trumps Trade President Joe Biden hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi today despite the latter’s dubious record on democracy and re...
Livestock Round Up: Chicken in Labs, Cattle on Feed
Move over Singapore, the U.S. has become the second country to allow cell cultured – or “lab grown” –chicken to hit the commercial...
Market Commentary: EPA Volumes Sink Soyoil; Grains Rally on Crop Conditions
Just one day after this analyst wrote that grain futures were likely to take a break from their rally amid overbought technical conditions, futures extende...
Sinking Ships
Russia says it expects the Black Sea grain corridor agreement to end on 18 July, though it is willing to keep talking. The Russian deputy foreign minister...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.3125 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, up $0.3875 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 June 2023 According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of 5 June, total acreage of spring grains and legum...
Market Commentary: A Pause Amid the Weather Market Storm
Last week’s CBOT trade rightly featured significant rallies as the U.S. weather forecast remains stubbornly hot and dry in both near- and long-term f...
Obrador Doubles Down; NGT’s Moving Forward; Tyranny of the Small Minded
Obrador Doubles Down President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is compelling Mexican tortilla makers to only use non-GMO white corn. He said he will impose tar...
Farm Bill Budget and Battles Ahead
Last week, WPI covered some proposals that are being put forth to be included in the farm bill (see here). This week, an overview of where the farm bill ti...
Avocado Dominance
Around one-half of global avocado exports are from Mexico and 86 percent of them are shipped to the U.S. The dominance of this trade is illustrated by Mexi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.4375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.9575/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan will receive another 20,000 MT of wheat from India in a new d...
Market Commentary: Shorts Get Crushed
For a second day in a row, large capital flows moved to stem exposure to a seriously bad weather forecast. Showers will decorate the Southern Plains and so...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed Monday, 19 June 2023 in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspec...
Farm Bill Placeholder Bills Put Forward
Some recent legislative developments on Capitol Hill are a good sign that the farm bill is still in the process of being baked; lawmakers are introducing a...
Oilseeds Highlights - Wicked Weekend
The Market The trade is spooked about the current weather pattern. This is especially true for corn but it is becoming a factor in oilseeds as well. This w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.88/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. J...
Failed Prop 12 Strategy; Shallow View of Trade; My AI Can Beat Your AI
Failed Prop 12 Strategy Some members of the U.S. Congress urged on by governors in 11 states are proposing legislation that would prevent state and local j...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period June 2-8, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 165,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024. Export shipments of 249,700 MT...
Market Commentary – Shades of 2012
Today’s Drought Monitor map (see below) reflects the worsening moisture conditions across the heart of the U.S. production belt. Worse, the he...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.2325/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.615/bushel, up $0.3125 from yesterday's close. ...
China Balancing Act; USMCA Loophole
China Balancing Act A diplomatic spat between Seoul and Beijing has relations between these two East Asian neighbors quickly souring. Meanwhile, Chinese Pr...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish and Dynamic
We’ve moved past Memorial Day, this weekend is Fathers’ Day, and it will soon by the 4th of July Independence Day holiday – all prime tim...
Market Commentary – Correction and Profit-taking
Volume was generally lighter (except for HRS) as a technically over-bought market took advantage of a correction for profit-taking. Right now it is all abo...
Black Sea Situation
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 June 2023 The second week of June remained bearish with the fundamental factors remaining the same: lower e...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
We regret to inform subscribers that WPI's analyst in China is currently ill and thus there is no report this week. ...
Market Commentary: More Weather Premium
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. New crop futures traded higher again today as there is still no impro...
TPP Re-enactment Society; Exporting Emissions; Pott versus Kettle
TPP Re-enactment Society USTR says the next and fourth round of negotiations on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will be held in Busan, South Kor...
Factors of Inflation
The monthly CPI for May was up 4 percent over 12 months; that is down from the April to April annual increase of 4.9 percent and slightly below the pre-rep...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.125/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisian President Kais Saied said that efforts must be made to insure th...
Market Commentary: Lack of Rain Driving Out Shorts
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. Agricultural commodity futures continue to be driven by the El Nino a...
Growing Pains for Indoor Vertical Agriculture
The leading indoor vertical agriculture (also known as controlled environment agriculture) AeroFarms has filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11&n...
Policy Shorts for Mid-June
USTR: Two years ago, it would have been deemed implausible but USTR Katherine Tai is now being criticized by Congressional Democrats for a lack of consulta...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.1725/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Trade activity was more quiet last week in Brazil. China made purchases for July and August positions but the number of vessels involved was limit...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projection for U.S. soybeans is for 2023/24 ending stocks of 350 million bushels, up 15 million from 2022/23. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s projection for U.S. corn is for increases to both beginning and ending stocks: U.S. exports are lowered 50 million bushels and ending stocks a...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production lev...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Beats WASDE Story
Before the June report was issued, corn and wheat were trading lower and soybeans were up by around 18 cents. Overall, the report was bearish both corn and...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Soars to 1 Percent in May After seeing food prices rise by just .4 percent in April, May saw a sharp rebound driven by the co...
Oilseed Highlights – Dizzying Soyoil Situation
It was another losing week for soymeal but soyoil will likely be at the top of the financial market’s percentage gainers. According to the CFT...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.0425/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
WASDE Bullish Cattle, Uncertain for Hogs
Most eyes on today’s WASDE were looking at the crop side since this is the first look at the 2023-24 supply and demand numbers. The livestock project...
Market Commentary: Betting Against the Weatherman
Corn, wheat, and soybean futures all rose today, despite some forecasts for an improving weather pattern. There may also be some pre-WASDE positioning wher...
Trade Policy Knocking
Except for an overstated IPEF, President Biden has put trade policy up on a shelf but there is knocking from all directions to put its policymaking back on...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.1025/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2625/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up: Ireland Considering a Climate Herd Buyout
The 1985 farm bill created the whole herd buyout program in response to falling milk prices. In Ireland, a potential buyout program is being considered to...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 26-June 1, 2023 Wheat: The new 2023/2024 marketing year began June 1. A total of 877,400 MT in sales were ca...
Market Commentary: Weather Everywhere
Today’s trading brought corn and wheat back down to earth based on possible improved rains next week. Emphasis on possible since nothing is assured...
Greenest Exporters; Slow to Go Green
Greenest Exporters Transatlantic duties on steel and aluminum were suspended in 2001 after the U.S. and EU agreed to pursue a Global Arrangement on Sustain...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.0425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 May – 2 June 2023 Russian farmers are in the final stage of spring planting. Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported...
Market Commentary: Stirred but Unshaken
There was a lot of input coming at the market today, but the only significant movements came in corn and soyoil. First up was news that the Kakhovka...
Brazil Helps Brussels; Transatlantic Double Vision
Brazil Helps Brussels EU foreign policy has designated Latin America as the region of the world deserving closer relations. Most of the countries in the re...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s current zero wheat import tax is expected to be extended...
Market Commentary: Mixed Bag
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. It was a modest volume day with trading initially unclear about what...
Proposition 12 Clarity and Summer Pork Demand
Last week, the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) issued a “Q&A” fact sheet on Prop 12. The primary question answered was...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.975/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Forever Poor
Dhaka’s The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh seeks to avoid the increased trade disciplines that comes with the country’s elevation above lea...
Pork Decline
Europe has been a major producer, consumer, and exporter of pork but that is changing. Seven out of the top ten per capita consuming countries in the world...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans It seems that there were several traders who were long on positions and suddenly became nervous as the demand failed to materialize. Consequ...
Market Commentary: Major Markets Bullish for Different Reasons
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with each of the major markets rallying based on different sets of fundamental reasons. Corn was the decided u...
Diverging Data on Jobs
As WPI has reported many times over the past two years, conventional economic data is difficult to decipher because the impact of COVID and its aftermath w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.09/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. J...
Oilseed Highlights – Whether the Weather
The Market There were notable price movements the past few days despite it being a holiday abbreviated trading week. November soybeans gained 37.25 cents i...
Challenging Mexico GMO Policy; Inequitable Ethanol Policy; Ties to Taiwan
Challenging Mexico GMO Policy The U.S. formally requested USMCA dispute settlement consultations with Mexico over its proposed ban on GMO corn. The move co...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 12-18, 2023 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 45,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were...
Market Commentary: Weather Market
Thursday’s release of USDA’s weekly Drought Monitor report reinforced that new crops in the ground could begin to feel some stress. The report...
SNAP and Meat and Poultry Retail Demand
USDA released its updated food expenditure series this morning. Going into the farm bill and SNAP debate – and in light of the debt ceiling deal...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Deforestation Proxy; Perpetual Crisis; Perpetual Costs
Deforestation Proxy It was revealed this week that Brazil is exporting 120 KMT of soybeans to the U.S. and the State Department immediately announced that...
Market Commentary: Old Crop Futures Hit Decision Point
The CBOT traded a volatile day with overnight weakness leading to a selling spike as the day session started. That weakness, however, was quickly met with...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Financials Reports Show Major Hog Companies Awash in Debt On 30 May, Ao Nong Biotechnology Co., Ltd., the fifth largest hog farming company in Ch...
Siloing of U.S. Agriculture; TTC Happy Talk; I{EF Spotlight
Siloing of U.S. Agriculture California state legislators saw the Supreme Court’s green light on Prop 12’s Sacramento driven animal welfar...
Sorghum: Notable but Volatile
Sorghum is a minor crop, logging in just 5 percent of the global production of its close cousin corn. This is in large part due to its lower yield and more...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.94/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $5.9425/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22 – 26 May 2023 Russian farmers continue their spring planting campaign. The Minister of Agriculture reports that aroun...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trade Reflects Long Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a bearish note with expectations for strong planting progress across the U.S. and sluggish demand weighing on markets. Friday&...
IPEF Blah, TTC Heat; African Woes
IPEF Blah, TTC Heat USTR Katherine Tai achieved agreement over the weekend on language focused on supply chains in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for...
Healthier Diet Cost
Nutritionists advise eating more fruits and vegetables (F&V). On a calorie basis, F&V can be more expensive than a diet of carbs and fats so a tria...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.94/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. J...
Debt and Budget Deal Moves to a Vote Tomorrow
Over Memorial Day weekend, Congressional leaders and the White House announced an agreement on the debt limit and a budget plan that puts caps on discretio...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s President said that recent wheat shortages have been...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms Heading into Long Weekend on Dry Weather, Short Covering
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the three-day holiday weekend with dryness and drought concerns for the Corn Belt pushing corn futures higher and h...
Memorial Day Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday, 29 May and consequently there will be no Ag Perspectives report on that day. WPI's analysis reports will resum...
Meat Loaf Wisdom; Enemy of My Enemy
Meat Loaf Wisdom U.S. Trade Ambassador Katherine Tai concluded a U.S. led meeting of APEC trade ministers in Detroit today without an agreed joint statemen...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.04/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Week
The Market If traders were nervous headed into the three-day Memorial Day weekend, concerns appeared to be to the upside. The lack of demand had soybean pr...
SCOTUS Rules on WOTUS
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on the Sackett v EPA case yesterday regarding the definition of waters of the United States (WOTUS) u...
Market Commentary: Wishy Washy
Sometimes markets trade with momentum, an ongoing path in the same direction. Sometimes there are reversals. There is often a day trading open that initial...
Livestock Round Up: Pork and Pigs Under Pressure
It’s a tough time to be in the hog and pig business. California’s Proposition 12 was upheld by the Supreme Court, and with that decision, Massa...
Wetting Down Party; DeGrowth for All
Wetting Down Party Farmers, real estate developers, and industry are celebrating a Supreme Court ruling that limits the government’s regulation of ce...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.9075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Downward Price Pressure to Remain Firm Through Q2 According to the latest official survey data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rur...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 12-18, 2023 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 45,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were up 7...
May Cold Storage Report
April 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from March and were 2.02 percent greater than April 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild stockpil...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Outlook; Wheat Falls on Yields, Rains; April Beef Stocks Fall Sharply
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week with diverging weather patterns pushing corn and wheat in different directions. For the central and eastern Corn Belt, the w...
Europe’s Bad Boy; Africa’s Bad Country
Europe’s Bad Boy Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not well liked in Brussels, nor in Kyiv. Not only does he rankle Western Europe’s dem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0625/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15 – 19 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish. Russia’s position during negotiations of the UN gr...
South Korean Beef Supply
South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical ca...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm as Wheat Posts Reversal; Soy Complex Plays Defense
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat firming with increased short covering and buying interest amid oversold technical conditions and recent s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.775/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. ...
Debt Ceiling Update and Ag Appropriations
The debt ceiling and budget agreement talks between Congress and the White House resumed yesterday, after a Sunday phone call between President Biden, as h...
USMCA Action and Future; Geopolitics Drives Trade Policy
USMCA Action and Future Washington invoked the USMCA’s rapid-response mechanism against Mexican worker rights violations for an eighth time. The Bide...
Grain is Out, Veggies are In
Some members of the U.S. Congress want more support going to fruits and vegetables. They note that the overwhelming majority of farm bill income support an...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Short Covering Rally Amid Long-Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with short covering on deeply oversold technical conditions and a dry 10-day weather forecast for the central and...
Follow the Money
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres attended the weekend’s G-7 summit in Hiroshima. At the meeting, he suggested the UN Security Council and the Br...
Atypical BSE Case in South Carolina; No Trade Implications Expected
A five-year-old cow in South Carolina was discovered to have a case of atypical BSE late last week. USDA’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (AP...
USA HRW Overpriced
Bloomberg cites UKRAgroConsult’s data showing that U.S. HRW wheat has been priced above competing sources (France, Russia, Ukraine, EU) for well more...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.71/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European weather is shifting more favorably for crop development over the next week with cooler-than-normal temperatures predicted...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There was a lot of anticipation regarding the rains that were forecast for this past weekend, and most of the Buenos Aires province received a good a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues Despite Tour Yields; Corn, Soybeans Score New Lows
The CBOT was, once again, mostly lower to end a week of strong selling as fund liquidation and speculative short selling continued. There was little fresh...
Cattle on Feed: Placements Higher than Consensus Expectation
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 May was...
Oilseed Highlights – In the Basement
The Market The floor fell out of the soybean market this week as the November contract lost 48.25 cents, closing below $12/bushel for the first time in two...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.545/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary – The Bear Trifecta
Good weather boosting crops in Brazil, the U.S. and elsewhere, an extension of the Black Sea grain corridor, and a rising dollar all conspire to extend the...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Price Pressures For Domestic Hogs and Chickens Continue In a recent interview, the chief pork industry analyst for the Ministry of Agriculture an...
Livestock Round Up: Livestock Hearing in Congress, COF Preview
The House Agriculture Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy and Poultry held a hearing yesterday, entitled "A Review of Animal Agriculture Stakeholder Prioritie...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.5525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1175/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...
Transatlantic Biofuel Split; Small Potatoes
Transatlantic Biofuel Split Brussels is ready to finalize its Renewable Energy Directive III (RED) with just one small glitch remaining. France and some ot...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 5-11, 2023. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 42,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Renewed; Fund Selling Hammers CBOT
The CBOT feature one-direction trade at mid-week – lower – with funds continuing to rapidly exit long positions in the grain markets and/or pil...
Toward a New U.S. Trade Policy
For many years U.S. agriculture was able to compete as a low-cost, bulk commodity supplier. Its farms were large and consolidated, enabling economies of sc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.22 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8 – 12 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish with the volume of trade miniscule because of traditional...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Plunge Lower; Corn Tests $5 Again; Wheat Mixed on Varied Outlook
Weak macroeconomic markets and good planting progress in Monday’s Crop Progress report sent the CBOT sharply lower on Tuesday. Corn and soybeans led...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8125/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close...
Debt Limit Spread; Agricultural Royalty
Debt Limit Spread President Biden says he will return early from his trip to the G-7 meeting in Japan due to the lack of agreement on raising the U.S. debt...
Perking up Supply
Although coffee futures are edging back up (Arabica hit a peak a month ago), prices are descending in longer dated contracts as Brazil is expected to suppl...
Proposed FMMO Reforms Submitted to USDA AMS
As we outlined back in March, reform to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FFMO) pricing formula is a good bet for the farm bill. Indeed, reform efforts are...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan is facing a severe infestation of Moroccan locusts in the exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Starts the Week with A Bullish Chorus
Friday’s WASDE was bearish corn and soybean futures, but you wouldn’t know that from Monday’s price action. Both markets turned higher wi...
Zero Sum Technology; Big is Better
Zero Sum Technology The center-right European People’s Party is undermining codification of the Green Deal’s goal of halving pesticide usage. O...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Olive Oil Shortage
The price of olive oil has hit over $6,000/MT on a combination of increased demand and a production shortfall in Spain caused by drought, or what some clai...
Farm Bill: Crop Insurance, Reference Prices, and CRP Reform
At President Biden’s invitation, the four bipartisan leaders of the House and Senate agriculture committees met with the President at the White House...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat prices continue to rise in Argentina’s local market, mainly due to millers’ participation as farmer sales remain low. While many mi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russian sources indicate the country plans to extend the Black Sea grain export corridor agreement for another 60 days starting 18 May...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybea...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn is for higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last yea...
Market Commentary: WASDE Helps Move Market Along
There were no major surprises in USDA’s May WASDE report, but there was enough to push up the volume in trading. Larger production and ending stocks...
Oilseed Highlights – Downward Slope
The Market It was a tough week for soybeans, which must have seen a dead cat bounce last week because this week peeled back the July contract by 46.5 cents...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8625/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.35/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. ...
WASDE Bullish Cattle, Bearish Hogs
Most eyes on today’s WASDE were looking at the crop side since this is the first look at the 2023-24 supply and demand numbers. The livestock project...
Friday Mix Up
Doth Protest Too Much: China criticized Japan for its decision to host a NATO liaison office in Tokyo. It accused Japan of dismantling trust and stability...
Market Commentary: A Story of Mixed Proportions
It might be called pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report, but it looked like more of the same. Corn and wheat took their dings, b...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Their Smallest Uptick in 13 Months While food prices this past April were up year-on-year for the 13th consecutive month, th...
Agriculture Exception; Sino Games
Agriculture Exception U.S. House Republicans are set to pass legislation today clamping down on border crossings but it required a last minute concession t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2725/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&...
Livestock Round Up: SCOTUS Upholds Prop 12
In a decision released today, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) upheld California’s Proposition 12 which imposed minimum space requirem...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 28 - May 4, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 26,300 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down 88 p...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sustains Neither Rallies nor Breaks Before WASDE
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with pre-WASDE position evening and consolidative trade being the primary feature. Funds tried to aggressively sell t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.94/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.4125/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Backdoor Farm Bill; Backdoor Grain Shipment
Backdoor Farm Bill President Biden has invited the top Democrat and Republican from both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees to meet tomorrow and d...
Wheaties
Decades ago, WPI’s staff was dominated by “Wheaties,” analysts who favored studying wheat. One analyst famously declared his “love&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 1–5 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remain bearish. Russia is struggling with low prices for grains fo...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress/Conditions Send Corn, Soy Lower and KCBT Wheat Higher; WPI 2023/24 Outlook Tables
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday as the strong planting progress reflected in Monday’s Crop Progress data eased many lingering concerns about the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8475/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.435/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&...
Defensive on Trade Policy
The Biden Administration is trying to shore up support for its trade policy ahead of next year’s election, but some are not buying it. National Secur...
Challenging India Subsidies
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen are asking USTR Katherine Tai and the Biden Administration to mount a WTO challenge to India’s use of agricult...
Debt Limit, Budget, and the Farm Bill
President Biden and the four top Congressional leaders - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California), Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies(D-New York), Senate...