Mexico Ignores Science Question In response to U.S. Agricultural Trade Ambassador Doug McKalip’s throwing down the gauntlet and demanding by today th...
Articles
Inflation Up – and Down – Depending on the Benchmark
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Lab...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.86/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Coming Beef Crisis
Global cattle production has basically been running steady. Fluctuating based on climate, health, supply and demand, and the gestation cycle. The U.S. is t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Punjab province is reportedly stopping permanently the w...
Market Commentary: Bullish Start for the Week
The CBOT largely continued Friday’s Russia-induced rally with help from another weekend of terrible weather for crops in Argentina. Soybeans and soym...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.85/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.92/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Tee Up Warnings; Takes One to Know One; Nutrition and Meat
Tee Up Warnings Learning that some Progressives in Congress want to amend crop insurance and increase conservation requirements, Ranking Member on the Sena...
Show Me the Farm Bill Money
On Wednesday of this week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will release its “score” of the farm bill baseline. That is the cost projectio...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The renewal of the Ukraine export corridor deal is seen as increasingly in jeopardy as rhetoric and military resource offers from Weste...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Many early-crop corn fields have been heavily impacted by drought and yields will be very low. Other fields have been burned or chopped early for anim...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global surplus sugar stocks are at their lowest since 2010/11 and futures prices are at their highest level in six years. Yet global import demand continue...
Market Commentary: Russian Missiles Spook CBOT; Wheat Posts Bullish Day
On Friday, Russia did what the February WASDE could not, excite the grain markets. Early Friday, a Russian missile(s) headed towards Romania (a NATO countr...
Valentine Kiss; Farm Bill Implications; Trade as a Weapon
Valentines Kiss USTR Chief Agriculture Negotiator Doug McKalip gave his counterparts until 14 February to respond to the U.S. demand for answers to its que...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.805/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.86/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Ending on a High Note
The Market The trading week started a little down in the dumps, but the finish ensured gains across the soybean complex. There was a lot of support: ...
Eggs: Bring Back the Breakers
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has had a major impact on the price of eggs. The first detection in a commercial laying flock was in February 2022...
Market Commentary: Post-WASDE Drip
There was higher volume trading corn, soybeans, and soymeal, but resulting in just a half penny change in soybeans. There was low volume trading in Februar...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Decline, Fears of New Variants Wane One particular positive as China’s lengthy New Year’s and Lantern F...
Biden’s Error in Commodity Strategy; Chasing Sri Lanka
Biden’s Error in Commodity Strategy The U.S. is the world’s largest oil and gas producing nation. Russia is a close number two. But note the fo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7075/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5725/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Ups Its Forecast Record 2023 Cattle Price
Yesterday’s WASDE increased its beef production forecast slightly over January’s estimate based on Q1 slaughter, but for Q2 the slaughter rate...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 27 – February 2, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 131,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 4...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA projects lower soybean crush and higher ending stocks. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15...
WASDE Corn
USDA projected lower U.S. corn use for ethanol and larger ending stocks. U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-aver...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made minor revisions to domestic wheat use and ending stocks. Wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million tons with offsetting by-class changes.&...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading, Commercial Buying; WASDE Cuts World Corn, Soybean Stocks
The CBOT was mostly waiting for the WASDE report early on Wednesday with the major ag markets seeing little directional influence. The exception was the wh...
War on Big Ag; Gene Editing Regulation
War on Big Ag At a conference hosted by anti-Big Ag activist group Farm Action, vegan and anti-Big Ag U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) called for a...
Africa Rising
A new report by USDA’s Economic Research Service entitled Market Opportunities Expanding for Agricultural Trade and Investment in Africa cites severa...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.785/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6475/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 January - 3 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable. The only commodity which slightly recovere...
Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates in pre-WASDE Trade; WPI Issues 2023/24 Grain Forecasts
The CBOT was mixed in mostly consolidative trade on Tuesday heading into the February WASDE. The market saw some quiet weakness in corn and CBOT wheat whil...
SOTU Preview on Issues Related to Agriculture
Tonight, President Biden will deliver the State of the Union (SOTU) address. There are always prognostications on what the President will, or won’t s...
Biden SOTU versus EU Hopes; Child Labor Perversity
Biden SOTU versus EU Hopes President Joe Biden in his State of the Union address tonight will call for increased application of Buy America provisions in g...
Declining Population Impacts Consumption
According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4975/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia received a 60,000 MT barley shipment from Australia financed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.79/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5025/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's clos...
Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Hit New Highs; Hogs Fall Sharply
The CBOT saw mostly consolidative trade to start the week just two days ahead of the February WASDE report. KCBT wheat futures attempted to rally but were...
India’s Rise; Critic versus Constructionist
India’s Rise The world’s largest democracy has refused to criticize or disengage from Russia’s autocratic regime. Prime Minister Narendra...
What to Make of the January Jobs Report
Last Friday the Labor Department released a shocker of a jobs report: 517,000 new jobs created in January. The pre-report consensus was 188,000 jobs. Unemp...
Ignoring Food Advice
Americans are urged to eat whole wheat flour. Whole-grain flours are considered more nutritious because they contain more fiber, minerals, vitamins, and ot...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s government announced the expected grain export quota for the period 15 February through 30 June 2023 of 25 MMT. The quot...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn During January, most of Argentina’s agricultural region received an average of 100 mm of rain, which helped to partly reverse several months of...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Collapses on Weaker Crude; New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ended the week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans grinding lower while corn saw mild strength. The big movers for the day were soymeal, which...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5675/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&n...
New House Agriculture Committee Democrats Named
The new members of the Democrat minority of the House Agriculture Committee have been named. The Democrat side will decrease from 27 to 24 members moving t...
Oilseed Highlights – Lots of Data Points
The Market This week started strong, took a midweek dip, and then recovered, except for soyoil. Soybeans are in an uptrend and the March contract is tradin...
Jurisdictional Competence; S&DT Short-Sightedness; Non-Starter
Jurisdictional Competence This week agriculture ministers from 16 EU countries sent a letter complaining that too many legislative issues impacting agricul...
Market Commentary: Groundhog Sympathy
Punxsutawney Phil reportedly saw his shadow today at Gobbler’s Knob and there will supposedly be six more weeks of winter, though he is like a grain...
Livestock Roundup: When Will Herd Rebuilding Begin
There’s still more information to digest among the details of Tuesday’s January Cattle Report (see WPI’s coverage here). Catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7525/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.61/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Obesity Scapegoats; Russian Humor
Obesity Scapegoats It has been popular to blame the rise in obesity on the proliferation of cheap, calorically dense “junk” foods. Most analyst...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 20-26, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 136,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 73 percent from t...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Firm; Soy Complex, Energy Markets Fall; Fed Decision Boosts Late-Date Trade
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with pronounced weakness in energy markets and technical/fund selling driving the soy complex sharply lower. Corn fut...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.81/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5975/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Farm Bill Hearing Highlights; Rising U.S. Nationalism; Deglobalization Debunked
Farm Bill Hearing Highlights The Senate Agriculture Committee held a hearing today on the horticulture and trade sections of the Farm Bill with a focus on...
Rice not Nice
India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 -27 January 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable and slightly bearish. The feature of the week was fe...
Market Commentary: Technicals Dominate on Light Fundamentals
Ag futures saw another day of mixed trade with CBOT wheat taking a surprising lead and posting a technically bullish day while corn futures sank lower afte...
Drop in Feeder Cattle Supply
USDA released its Cattle Inventory report today. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January is 89.3 million head; that compares to 92.1 m...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7975/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6125/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...
New Trade Agenda; Walk the Meat Talk
New Trade Agenda Tomorrow will present the Senate Agriculture Committee’s first hearing in preparation for writing a new Farm Bill and the first two...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian government officials said the “dollar crisis” has no...
Parsing the Data
Brazil’s meat processors are expressing angst that their country’s boosted corn exports to China this year will drive up domestic feed costs to...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, Live Cattle Post New Contract Highs; Grains End Firmer
The CBOT was stronger to start the day with corn and wheat finding mild, continued strength from last week’s rallies. The winterkill threats to the H...
Philippines Agriculture; Future Trade Policy
Philippines Agriculture After remittances from overseas, agriculture and fisheries are the most important industries in the Philippines. A country of 114 m...
Farm Bill Could Change PLC Reference Prices
Topics for consideration in the farm bill are starting to take shape. According to reports from Capitol Hill, one likely change in the 2023 farm bill will...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains that have fallen so far in 2023 indicate a possible change in the South American weather pattern. They have been good in terms of quantity and r...
Pricier White Liquor
The three major global suppliers of sorghum are the U.S., Argentina, and Australia. China has been a critical market for U.S. sorghum in recent years but i...
Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts
The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
House Ag Committee Reorganizing After Its Organization Announcement
On 17 January, we reported the list of new Republican majority members of the House Agriculture Committee. At the time, the Republican side increased from...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. M...
USTR Downgraded; Lightweight Committee
USTR Downgraded The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative sits inside the Executive Office of the President. No different than other offices situated und...
Oilseed Highlights: Volatile Mood
The Market The trading week got started with the weather premium getting chopped down due to rains in Argentina. Those rains turned out to be good but not...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleas...
Dirty Deal; Standards Battle
Dirty Deal During the early days of negotiating the Uruguay Round, industry leaders fretted that trade liberalization aspirations would be thwarted by prot...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 13-19, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous wee...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook
Preliminary December broiler production was 3.8 billion pounds, which would bring 2022 annual production to 46.2 billion pounds. That is 103 percent of 202...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finally Finds a Bid; Cold Storage Report Bearish Livestock
The CBOT saw another day of strength in wheat as funds continue to pare back their short positions in that market while commercial buying interest picked u...
Foreign Desk at State; IRA Confusion; Grain is Value-added Water
Foreign Desk at State Under Secretary Jose Fernandez has proved that an American desk is needed at the State Department. Speaking at the Center for Strateg...
Battle for Acres
S&P Global is the first private firm to issue an acreage planted forecast following USDA’s prediction for the upcoming campaign, but it will not...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Cultural The Year of the Rabbit Arrives The Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations began on Saturday with festive New Year’s Eve gatherings. Sunday mark...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further
Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and s...
China Dairy Hope
Global dairy trade, which had been growing at a compound annual rate of 4.7 percent has slowed over the past couple of years. A primary reason has been Chi...
Policy Shorts
Mexico Shrug U.S. trade officials meeting with their Mexican counterparts raised "grave concerns" over AMLO’s agricultural biotechnology policies and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.77/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. ...
Anticipating GDP Release
GDP for Q4 2022 will come out on Thursday of this week; the consensus expectations is for 2.5 percent growth. But the question is what lies ahead for 2023?...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish authorities have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to ban the im...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Create CBOT Selling Flood
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but this week it’s falling on Argentina and causing a flood of CBOT sell orders. Corn, wheat, and the so...
“Friend” Shoring; Better Grain Corridor; Food versus Fuel Germany
“Friend” Shoring WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned countries against the fallacy of friend shoring. She posed the questions: who...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.2/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. ...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to C...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Recent swings in temperatures across the EU could leave winter crops weakened and more vulnerable to damage. EU winter crops have escap...
Debt Ceiling Showdown in Congress This Week
As Congress returns this week, negotiating over the debt limit will be at the top of the to-do list. Coupling spending cuts with a debt limit increase was...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat continues to be scarce in general across Latin America, but especially in Argentina. It is strange to see Argentina’s export volumes prac...
Cattle on Feed
Jan 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed down 3 percent from 2022 Dec Placements in feedlots totaled 1.80 million head, 8 percent below 2021 Dec Marketings of fed c...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Lower on Technical Follow-Through; KC Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note with wheat futures strengthening amid commercial buying and bull spreading while soymeal futures traded sharply low...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cattle on Feed: Contraction
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 January...
Lake Geneva; Farm Bill/China
Lake Geneva Switzerland officially notified the WTO today that it will formally agree to the agreement on fisheries subsidies. WTO Director General Ngozi O...
Oilseed Highlights – Soft Side of the Market
The market movers this week included primarily the chances for moderate to abundant rainfall in Argentina, macro concerns about economic growth, and the im...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Jan. 6-12, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 473,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the pre...
Market Commentary: Risk Off
This was not so much a day of trade based on commitment but on ambivalence. Volume was modest at best, except in Feeder Cattle. Corn, soybeans, and wheat t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Industrial Policy is Back; Interest Rate Impacts
Industrial Policy is Back At Davos, USTR Kathrine Tai pitched her “worker-centric” trade policy while other American representatives defended n...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 January at 96.8 p...
Market Commentary: Rains in Argentina’s Forecast Pressure CBOT
The CBOT started the day on a strong note and tried to capitalize on Tuesday’s strength but faltered and ended lower after updated weather models sho...
Sucker Punch Instead of a Gut Blow
Former WTO spokesperson Keith Rockwell criticizes the Biden Administration for pursuing partnerships that lack the key word “trade.” President...
Killing the Golden Goose II
Big Ag continues to be the focus of attacks by populists who nostalgically, though without substantiation, insist that food from small and local is environ...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Up Nearly 5 Percent In December For the ninth straight month, the average cost of food across various categories climbed. It was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.425/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 - 13 January 2023 The Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) has adjusted preliminary crop size numbers for the 2022 cro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off Early Weakness to Post a Bullish Day
The CBOT started Tuesday with bearish pressure that impacted corn, soybeans, and wheat alike. The day’s trade didn’t end there, however, and th...
Transatlantic Farm Arguments; Trade as Leverage; AMLO/Dalio Visions
Transatlantic Farm Arguments Germany’s Greens are protesting this coming weekend over the lack of commitment to reducing farm inputs and want farming...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...
New House Agriculture Committee Republicans Named
The new members of the Republican majority of the House Agriculture Committee have been named; the Democrat members have not yet been assigned. The Republi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reduced its import duty on oilseeds, including soybeans, from 9 to 1...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 16 January 2023 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends WASDE Week on Quiet Strength; All Eyes on Argentine Weather
The CBOT saw somewhat volatile trade following the January WASDE but strength was noted in soybeans, corn, and KCBT wheat. The futures market did not post...
Dairy’s Remarkable Growth Forecast to Continue
The year 2022 set a record for milk prices at $25.50/cwt, beating the 2014 record of $24.00/cwt. High prices will keep cows in production – and eatin...
Market Access to the Fore
The Biden Administration has thus far resisted demands by industry and agriculture to include market access in its trade policy vehicles such as the Indo-P...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.75/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4375/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Oilseed Highlights – Big Reports Week
The Market The most influential event of the week was USDA’s release of its January WASDE, plus stocks reports. The soy complex was trading in the gr...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA reduced U.S. soybean production by 69 million bushels to 4.276 billion bushels. Reductions were in Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Kansas.&...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA reduced U.S. corn production to 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Dec 30, 2022 – Jan 5, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 90,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 93 perc...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.71/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4275/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Surprise Information Bonanza!
USDA unloaded a gigabyte of data today and a bunch of it was not as expected. The pre-report temperature was bearish. Corn, winter wheats, and livestock we...
Policy Shorts
Trade Programs Renewal: Trade promoting Republicans want to use their new majority in the U.S. House to push through renewal of the Generalized Systems of...
Livestock Roundup: 2022 Meat Prices and 2023 Livestock Prices
USDA released its monthly meat price spreads today, which show the producer, packer and retailer share of the retail value of beef and pork. As expected, b...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Prices Depressed as Market Still in Oversupply Market survey data from the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) and other gover...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.56/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Steady/Higher Ahead of WASDE; Hog Selloff Intensifies
Wednesday’s CBOT trade was almost entirely focused on positioning for the January WASDE that will be released at noon Thursday. For corn and soybeans...
Nudging Consumption; USMCA as Model; With Us or Against Us
Nudging Consumption Some in Europe are pushing to waive the VAT tax on fruits and vegetables to improve their consumption. There is also talk of increased...
Less Traded Category
The news headline says that the Filipino government will import 21,060 MT of onions to fill a supply shortfall until the next domestic harvest in February...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 January 2023 With a historic grain crop and the upcoming Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays, traders seem to hav...
Market Commentary: Volatile Trade for Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Falls on European Weakness
Trading at the CBOT was active on Tuesday with most major markets scoring wide ranges but ending well away from the day’s extremes. Wheat futures plu...
Money for Nothing; Change in Argentina; Pakistan on the Brink; Trade in Perspective
Money for Nothing Indonesian President Joko Widodo (and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim) promised to fight environmental “discrimination&rdquo...
Setting Some Farm Bill Issues
We’re nearing the middle of January which means all the farm and commodity groups will be holding their annual meetings, and in a farm bill year that...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.55/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.31/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
Reshuffling the Wheat Suppliers
One of the larger shifts in global grain markets in recent years has been the result of the ascendency of the Black Sea region. However, there has also bee...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Malta’s Kordin Grain Terminal, in Valetta port, had a minor silo fi...
Market Commentary: Grains Lower in pre-WASDE Trade; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with funds remaining in a defensive mood heading into the January WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. The USDA will...
Farm Bill Trouble; Aggie Gets Ways & Means
Farm Bill Trouble The conservative Freedom Caucus flexed its muscle in holding up the election of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) in becoming Speaker of...
No Inflation Hedge
Former trader and now academic Ivo Sarjanovic has a new book entitled, “Commodities as an Asset Class.” He was inspired to write on the topic o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&n...
The House of Representatives Has a Speaker but Not a Farm Bill Budget
It took a record 15 rounds of votes on the House floor to elect Representative Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House after mid-night on Friday. One impact...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina has ended with an estimated production of 11.5-12.5 MMT. This is no surprise to the market and compares with a 22 MMT...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Germany’s winter wheat area is estimated at 2.8 Mha for 2023/24, down 1.9 percent. Winter barley was seeded across 1.3 Mha this y...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Fuel Soy Rally; Livestock Markets Move Lower
The CBOT was mixed to end a week that featured mostly bearishness with a surprise decline in Argentina’s soybean crop ratings sparking a rally in soy...
Red Meat Exports: Gains for Pork, Headwinds for Beef
Yesterday’s export report showed big sales for 2023 delivery totaling 73,600 MT. Mexico continued as the top market with sales of 31,000 MT (42...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.435/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – New Year, Same Arguments
The Market The March soybean contract ended 2022 at $15.24/bushel, the fourth yearly rise in soybean values. As this first week of trading in 2023 comes to...
Bullish Market but Farm Bill?
In response to WPI's last home page survey asking the state of agricultural commodity markets in 2023, there was very little debate. An overwhelming majori...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Dec 23-29, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 47,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for China (65,000 MT s...
Market Commentary: Mixed and Confused
Today was another mixed but generally bearish trading day in the New Year. Nothing has changed from the fundamentals of December when values generally move...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4675/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Beef and Cattle Prices Starting Year Strong
Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a weekend this year, and a deep freeze fell on much of the country over the holidays, all of it impacting the sl...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Rising COVID-19 Related Death Toll Dampens New Year’s Outlook Although official figures appear to understate the reality of COVID on th...
Mexico Already Won; Pakistan Pays the Price; Hollow Funding
Mexico Already Won Opponents of Big Ag are arguing that Mexico’s proposed delay of a GMO corn ban, plus its focus on corn for food use and not feed m...
Market Commentary: Recession Forecasts, Fund Selling Sink Ag Futures
Except for cattle futures, the CBOT and CME ag markets were all lower on Wednesday as bearishness remains the prevailing sentiment. Commodity markets recei...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.455/bushel, down $0.3 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China Strike First; Bad Boy of Africa; Made in Failure
China Strikes First The Biden Administration’s light-handed approach to trade is starting to reveal its cost. Ecuador has just announced completing a...
Holes in Food Security
The population in Africa is projected to nearly double from 1.34 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050. By contrast, the rest of the world’s populat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 - 23 December 2022 Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced a record year-end grain production of 159.5 MMT in bunk...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sags to Start New Year; Late-2022 Rallies Fade
The CBOT and CME markets were almost unanimously lower to start 2023 with demand – either from exports or domestic consumption – being a primar...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Trade Hope Springs Eternal
The Biden Administration’s “trade lite” agenda will pick up steam in 2023 as it seeks to bring to fruition rules-based changes via its In...
New Final WOTUS Rule May Not be Final
In November 2021, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Army Corps of Engineers announced they’d come up with a proposed revision fo...