On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported May biodiesel production of 149 million gallons, 9 million gallon above April and up...
Articles
Trump Administration’s Farm Aid Package Could Create Gluts
The Trump administration’s announcement last week of a $12 billion-aid package for struggling farmers impacted by Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up Slightly but Relatively Stable With the summer maintenance period beginning to wind down, China’s estimated soymeal inv...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices firmed overnight as the leading weather models indicated the return of above-normal temperatures and dry conditions to portions of the...
Soybean Exports and the U.S. Economy
Last Friday the Department of Commerce released its initial gross domestic product (GDP) report for Q2 2018, which showed estimated growth of 4.1 percent...
Naha Tug-of-Trade; Corporate Food Fascism; Unpronounceable but Safe; Pleasantly Low Hypoxia
Naha Tug-of-Trade U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi meet next week (9 August)...
Uncertain Times Ahead
We often say that uncertainty is the lifeblood of commodity futures markets. The greater its perceived level, the greater is the degree of price volatility...
Oilseed Highlights: Russia’s Soybean Situation; German Rapeseed; U.S.-China Discussions
Russia’s Growing Soybean Demand, Production and Imports For the past several years, Russia has been working aggressively to expand its domestic produ...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
You knew it had to happen again someday and that day was today. Soybean futures led the CBOT higher (higher!) after reports surfaced that the U.S. and Chin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Moroccan government says that crops for 2017/18 are “exceptional” with grain production...
Soybeans Rise on Rumors of Trade War Talks
November CBOT soybean futures are 21 cents (2.3 percent) higher as the market digests reports from Bloomberg (yet confirmed by WPI or other news sources) t...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
China Rebuts U.S.; Political Pickle; Risk of Piecemeal; G-20; Deal Skepticism and Market Mover
China Rebuts U.S. China’s ambassador to the WTO, Zhang Xiangchen, had clever reactions to the U.S. criticism of his nation’s economic system, b...
A Weather Market 30 Days Late?
Markets started this week on a very strong note. Last week’s rally was mostly the result of concerns about crop production in the EU and Black Sea re...
Diesel Supply Remains Tight
Despite the recent U.S. tariffs slowing two-way trade traffic, the otherwise booming economy has pushed diesel supplies down to their lowest level in 14 ye...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight. They were led again by wheat, which then exploded to gains of 15-20 cents at this morning’s openings. Corn and soybean...
Smile! Corn’s Heading Higher
Beyond acting as a price discovery and risk management tool, options on commodity futures have predictive power. The implied volatility (IV) of an option r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The world soybean markets are still dead, including Brazil’s. Chinse demand is covered for August and most of September, leaving potential d...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is on fire. The reported harvest yields are confirming expectations that they would be 15-20 percent lower than last yea...
The Future Transatlantic Trade War; Japan Bides its Time; Modern Farmers, Go Long
The Future Transatlantic Trade War Following the joint EU-U.S. statement solely asserting the “intention” to negotiate a future trade agreement...
E15 and Small Refinery Waivers Still Unsettled
In Iowa yesterday, President Trump said the administration is “very close” to granting a year-round waiver for E15 usage. This confirms what he...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight and today. Volume was very light for corn and soybeans but better than average for Chicago wheat. The markets actually t...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It’s been an interesting week with the following highlights: - USDA’s $12 billion farm rescue plan (income redistribution) didn’t find ma...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Glut Supply of Milk Prompts GOI to Offer Export Incentive When the state government of Maharashtra reduced the the cooperatives’ purchase price of mi...
Market Commentary
News that the U.S. and the EU pulled back from a potentially escalating trade war gave financial markets a boost late yesterday, and the agreements between...
Ugly Insights on Trump-Juncker Deal
Beans and Gas The EU agreed to buy more soybeans and liquified natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. Nothing reflects the EU better playing Trump for a fool than...
Beef and Trade
Trade isn’t Cattlemen’s Only Beef We’ve covered in detail the administration’s $12 billion plan to stabilize commodity market...
Oilseed Highlights: Europe’s Promise; Brazilian Request; China’s Soymeal Problem; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Europe’s Promise to Import More U.S. Soybeans a Nothingburger When EU President Juncker met with President Trump yesterday to seek a way to avo...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Wheat Price Forecast
"Volatility" was the word of the day at the CBOT with wheat futures initially pushing higher before crashing, corn and soybeans moving higher, and the live...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Ag Review - July 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
The World of Wheat in 2018/19
For countries that supply renewable agricultural commodities to world buyers, a more perfect world occurs during a year when global demand for a particular...
Detailed Devil
The agreement between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and U.S. President Donald Trump may be like the earlier Kim Jong-un/Donald Trump agreemen...
Market Commentary
The sharp jump in world wheat prices on the back of wheat production losses in Russia, the EU, Australia and elsewhere along with the government’s $1...
Juncker-Trump Tête-à-Tête; Less Bricks in the Wall; Keep the Wall of Bricks; World Trade Status
Juncker-Trump Tête-à-Tête U.S. President Donald Trump opened his meeting with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker today by sayin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 July 2018 The domestic grain market was dominated by new crop production. Although harvesting in many regions was interrupted...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Hard times in the European wheat crop sent wheat markets into a buying frenzy that pulled corn higher as well. EU wheat futures closed 2.8 percent higher y...
Crop Ratings Could Drive Soybean Prices
In the most recent NASS Crop Progress report, soybean crop condition ratings rose slightly during the week ending 22 July. Those in the reporting states ra...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Declines Again as Crush Rate Falls With summer in full swing, many soybean crushers have suspended operations for routine season...
Market Commentary
The promised program to aid farmers hurt by the trade conflict with China and others will be $12 billion, according to USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue at a pre...
Spinning Trade Mitigation Funds; Trade War Angles; Sorghum Help
Spinning Trade Mitigation Funds USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue originally said he would decide on a trade war bailout package around Labor Day (3 September),...
A Little Corn Export History
USDA raised its estimate of U.S. corn exports in 2017/18 to 2.4 billion bushels in the July WASDE. This increase was based on the large volume of open unsh...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Trading was mixed at the CBOT with soybeans jumping higher on Presidential news of financial aid for farmers and corn declining on excellent conditions rat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has announced that Dubai-based AOS has been removed from the list of wheat sellers on government...
Trade Mitigation Funds
This afternoon USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue had a press briefing about the administration’s package of market stabilization actions intended to addres...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Crusher Woes; Pakistan’s Soy Imports; India’s Vegoil Situation…
Chinese Soy Crusher Files for Bankruptcy The Chinese firm Shandong Sunrise Group, a soybean importer and processor as well as an independent petroleum refi...
We Have the Markets Right Where We Want Them
The chatter surrounding the markets today was interesting. The bullish stories discussed the shrinking wheat and feed grain crops in the EU, and that inclu...
Trade Policy This Week; Barriers to Innovation; Building Migratory Pressures
Trade Policy This Week Capitol Hill: Congressional hearings this week on U.S. trade policy under President Trump will offer insights on relative political...
Market Commentary
It was a very quiet Sunday night session across soybeans, wheat and corn. The markets finished with corn up 1 cent, beans steady, Chicago wheat 3 cents hig...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Global soybean markets have been quiet these past few weeks with trading houses very cautious since any agreement between the U.S. and China could...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is very firm. Demand for Russian wheat is increasing every day, and we hear rumors that even Germany will import some du...
Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory
The cattle on feed inventory set a new record for the month of July at 11.3 million head. The 1 July total was down 300,00 head from the 1 June inventory b...
Subsidiarity Economic Cost; One-Sided Study; War Timeline and Result
Subsidiarity Economic Cost The effort to harmonize rules across the EU helped spawn separatist political movements, including the largest one, Brexit. Now...
Tariffs and Treasury Bonds
Treasury securities are one of the safest investments in times of economic chaos. Proof of that in the havoc over the present trade disputes may be the cur...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight, but the wheat markets took off higher again this morning. KC and Chicago traded gains of 10-15 cents most...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent. This is the highest July 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.15 million...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian...
Wheat Fundamentals Are Getting Stronger
U.S. wheat fundamentals have been improving quickly over the past several months, although this wouldn’t be apparent by looking at prices. Some of th...
Cattle on Feed; Animal Rights Revival
Cattle on Feed Tomorrow USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed...
Market Commentary
The quietude of yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets continued in the overnight trading session. Volume and price movement were limited with not...
China Hit Worst; IMF Backs Trade Distortions; Realigned Politics; Nut Melk
China Hit Worst Like the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) assessment on a global basis, the Asian Development Bank this week kept its curr...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Corn and soybeans continued their quiet rallies while wheat futures popped higher in a bullish, Russian-weather-fueled trading day. Cattle futures were cau...
Export Sales and Other Matters
In today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ended 12 July, there were a few interesting items deserving of some comment. Among them were the...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; South Asian and Brazilian Biodiesel; Russia and Soybeans
Higher Week for U.S. Soy Exports Today’s USDA export sales report indicated higher sales last week for U.S. soybeans and soymeal, particularly for th...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
After featuring active trade and higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, grain and soybean markets paused to catch their breath today. Volume was restrained,...
Trading Barbs; Got Milk?
Trading Barbs WTO: There is a special Agriculture Committee meeting at the WTO next week, and the disparate views of its members are being previewed ahead...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 July 2018 The domestic grain market was influenced by different trends as new crop production started being traded along with t...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains traded a quiet, mixed session while cattle futures moved sharply higher ahead of this week’s fundamental reports. Hog futures, of course, put...
Crush Margins and Soybean Prices Hinge on Soymeal Demand
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported on Monday that members crushed 159.2 million bushels of soybeans during June, a record for the...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Declines as Crushers Dial Back Activity With the tariff on U.S. soybeans becoming effective on 6 July, feed demand has remained...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices firmed overnight, in part because USDA dropped weekly condition ratings for corn and soybeans further than the trade expected. Another...
War Nears End; Neat Meat Thoughts
War Nears End Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said today that if President Trump continues with his “misguided and reckless re...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The fundamentals are kicking in and pulling CBOT products higher. Spotty growing conditions across the Midwest, including reports of both drought and drown...
Corn Crop Questions
It has been a tumultuous three months for grain and soy markets, which have been roiled by the Trump administration’s aggressive “take no priso...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s government is said to be disappointed in the country’s wheat production as it repor...
Further Analysis of the WASDE Forecasts for the Soybean Sector
Last week’s WASDE report made several major changes in USDA’s forecasts for the soybean sector. The most important ones were related to the 25...
Record U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields?
There has been a great deal of conversation over the past several weeks about the possibility that U.S. corn and soybean yields might be much better than c...
Trade War Language and Economic Impacts; Global Realignment; GIs; Africa
Trade War Language Us versus them, me (America First) and we. Donald Trump called the EU a foe this past weekend. He says he meant it in terms of competito...
Market Commentary
Markets traded most of the Sunday night session slightly lower before finishing steady in corn and soybeans but down 2-4 cents in wheat. However, corn and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The first week of the official U.S.-China trade war was very calm. With crush margins currently poor (using Brazilian soybeans), t...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker during most of last week due to harvest pressure. However, the downtrend was reversed on Thursday after publi...
Cultured Meat
Food definitions are an emerging policy topic. The dairy industry doesn’t like the term soymilk, and the rice industry is concerned about the marketi...
Doing Good to be Bad; Domestic Political Implications of Trade War
Doing Good to Be Bad Four large food companies (Danone, Mars, Nestle and Unilever) have formed the Sustainable Food Policy Alliance, which will focus on pr...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Today is Friday the 13th, and the week ended accordingly. Soybeans were down again overnight and continued lower today. Corn joined soybeans, while wheat w...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Policy Changes May Not Ease Pressure on Sugar Sector Immediately Changes in ethanol prices, including that of B-Heavy molasses as an input for maki...
Energy Exports Overview
Not frequently discussed in the turmoil about trade sanctions is the energy sector. The three countries with which the U.S. is currently engaged in trade d...
Things to Watch Going Forward
This week’s USDA WASDE and production estimates were not quite as bearish as they might have been for the following reasons: The corn and soybean yi...
Market Commentary
While awaiting today’s WASDE, grains and soy markets traded a bit higher overnight as they tried to recover at least a small portion of yesterday&rsq...
Oilseed Highlights: July WASDE; U.S. Soy Sales
Key Oilseed Highlights in USDA WASDE Report To say USDA made major changes to its supply and distribution forecasts for the soybean sector in today’s...
Trade like NATO; Europe’s Miscalculations; Hidden Trump Benefits
Trade like NATO U.S. Agricultural Trade Ambassador Gregg Doud says there is a difference between countries willing to make commitments and those actually m...
The July WASDE
Thanks to USDA’s effort to project the effect of the Chinese tariffs on the U.S. soybean supply/demand for 2017/18 and 2018/19 as well as the expecte...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The July WASDE came out bullish corn and wheat while bearish U.S. soybeans. World wheat ending stocks are forecast 4.6 percent less than last year while co...
Mexico Looks to Brazil; Tariff Scorecard; WASDE
Mexico Looks to Brazil Last March Mexico suspended all imports of meat and poultry from Brazil in response to the Carne Fraca meat inspection scandal. This...
Export Sales
Weekly export sales materials are undated with USDA's latest annual estimates for The United States - published 12 July 2018: Those U.S. export estimates a...
WASDE Soyoil
Total global 2018/19 oilseed production is down 1.4 million tons to 592.6 million with a 4.3-million-ton increase for soybean production offset by lower ra...
WASDE Soymeal
Soybean crush for 2018/19 is raised 45 million bushels to 2.045 billion reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports...
WASDE Soybeans
This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 include lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks. Begin...
WASDE Corn
According to USDA, this month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and lower ending...
WASDE Wheat
Projected U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 74 million bushels on increased beginning stocks and higher production. Forecast 2018/19 U.S. wheat produc...
Market Commentary
The bell to start the next round of the escalating U.S. trade scuffle with China rang late last evening with news that the Trump administration is preparin...
Not “Impossible;” No Solution at Hand; Phase II; Rebuke, Relief, Retreat; Future of Tech
Not “Impossible” Following the Trump-driven upheaval at last month’s G-7 meeting, no one was surprised when he did the same at this week&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 July 2018 Following the usual seasonal trends, domestic grain prices decreased. However, they fell at a less dramatic rate than...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It was a day of red at the CBOT with corn and soybeans marking new contract lows and Chicago wheat breaking below key support. MGEX HRS wheat found support...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Palm Oil Falls Due to Large Stocks but Recovery Possible
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB’s) monthly report indicated that stocks rose in June following contra-seasonal decreases over the last fiv...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Higher Ahead of Tariffs Continuing the trend that began in the second week of June, China’s crushing companies stea...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading pushed corn and soybean prices mildly lower with more pronounced weakness in wheat. Good weather, high weekly crop condition ratings and...
Cash Distortions; War on Vocabulary; Economic Growth Factors
Cash Distortions The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled today that olive imports from Europe are injuring domestic producers. Antidumping/countervai...
The Economy and SNAP
The thorniest political problem yet in completing a farm bill conference between the House and Senate this summer is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
A Few Odds and Ends
Following are a few thought-provoking items: The corn, soybean and spring wheat crops are off to a great start despite weather that has not been ent...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grain and oilseed markets were mixed/lower today with wheat futures crumbling, corn posting new contract lows, and soybeans unable to establish market dire...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Hoboob, the Syrian grain agency, has reportedly bought 200,000 MT of soft wheat at $195/MT CNF. The sal...
Finding Alternate Export Markets for U.S. Soybeans
With the trade war officially underway, China is now assessing a 28 percent duty on imports of U.S. soybeans (the 25 percent retaliatory tariff plus the 3...
USDA Will Increase Ending Supplies Thursday
USDA will release its updated U.S. and world production estimates at 12 p.m. (EDT) Thursday. Those for U.S. corn and soybeans will be larger than in the pr...
Trade War Hyperbole; Merkel’s Marshall Mush
Trade War Hyperbole Equity markets around the world traded higher today even as pundits and newspaper headlines wailed about the trade war. Beijing will ge...
Market Commentary
The trade worries won’t go away. Even though markets ignored the imposition of tariffs last Friday, they were back to selling today in relatively lig...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Crop Program Issues in Farm Bill Conference
The House and Senate will appoint conferees to the farm bill conference committee this week and begin work on a compromise final version. Based on Congress...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans As has been widely reported, the U.S. imposed tariffs on specific Chinese imports on 6 July, and China reciprocated with retaliatory tariffs on so...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The price of Russian and Ukrainian wheat for July/August shipment remained about unchanged last week. Offers for deferred positions are diffi...
Policy Overview
As Congress returns from the 4th of July recess next week, the House will be in session for three weeks prior to the August break. However, the Senate is (...
War Update – Elites Panic, Others Don’t
U.S. agriculture dislikes being the tip of the spear in Donald Trump’s trade war fight, but the industry’s intermediaries in Washington are far...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
U.S. soybean, corn and wheat markets finished the night session up 1-2 cents despite the U.S./China trade war becoming a reality overnight. However, the so...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in lat...
Post-Tariff Support Floods Soybean Market
Buying support is flooding into the soybean market an hour before the closing bell on a day that saw the official start of the U.S.-China trade war. Novemb...
“D-Day” for Tariffs
Today is D-Day for the imposition of tariffs, and the U.S. implemented them on $34 billion worth of goods from China. That country then quickly followed su...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Market Commentary
Today’s post-holiday market was not the frenzied affair that sometimes follows the 4th of July. There was no overnight session (due to the holiday),...
Tariffs, but It’s NTBs; Measuring War; Other Distortions; Bye-Bye Pruitt
Tariffs, but It’s NTBs Additional retaliatory tariffs were applied by Mexico today, and another round of U.S. tariffs will be applied to China at the...
ESA Reform; Cattle Traceability
Endangered Species Act Reform On 2 July, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) introduced the Endangered S...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Commodity Prices and Demand
Today is T-Day minus one, which is another way of saying that tomorrow, 6 July, is when the U.S. will impose 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chi...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseed markets defied their traditional post-4th of July fireworks and simply did nothing today. Wheat was the exception, rising 20 cents, whil...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Higher MSP; Soy Updates for Brazil and China
India Raises Minimum Support Price for Oilseeds and Other Crops The government of India (GOI)yesterday announced new higher minimum support prices (MSPs) f...
Happy 4th of July
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow in observance of the 4th of July holiday in the United States. We will resume ou...
July WASDE Accounting for Tariffs
USDA will release its monthly WASDE report next week on 12 July. This will be the first to include the tariffs in effect on U.S. ag exports to Canada and M...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy markets closed early today for the U.S. holiday and will not reopen until 9:30 a.m. (EDT) Thursday. They are often quite volatile on the...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Trade Tops Weather
Aside from being the U.S. Independence Day holiday, the 4th of July is traditionally considered to be a key point in the development of spring-planted crop...
Agro-Energy Trade Remedy; Migration and Trade Solution; Strange Bedfellows; Cotton Subsidization
Agro-Energy Trade Remedy U.S. agriculture is being hurt by retaliation from other countries that have been targeted by the Trump administration’s tra...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soybean Imports; PNW Soy Exports; EU Feed Production
Is China Preparing to Reduce Total Soybean Imports? USDA is currently forecasting China’s 2018/19 soybean imports at 103 MMT, up from 97 MMT in 2017/...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS It is reported in Egypt that 45,000 MT of Russian wheat were seized from local storage due to infestati...
Carter in 1980 and Trump in 2018?
In January 1980, President Carter decided to punish Russia for invading Afghanistan. That action left U.S. grain companies holding sales on the books to Ru...
Some Worldview Components
NAFTA: Mexico elected leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador as president. He promises to make his country more self-sufficient in food, but his...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher in the Sunday night session, but that steady pattern disappeared when the markets opened this morning with steep los...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil After a few quiet weeks, demand from China moved again. Much improved gross crushing margins there (above $25/MT) prompted crushers to buy...
Farm Bill: Next Stop is Conference Committee
The Senate passed the farm bill late last Thursday night by a vote of 86-11 with bipartisan support. In fact, more Democrats than Republicans voted for it...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week after several consecutive weeks of declining prices. The Russian crop is estimated to...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Transatlantic Paeans; Soya-Surprise
EU leaders made great strides yesterday in their efforts to deal with a multitude of challenges, although few of the outcomes appear to be a panacea. Refug...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday, confirming herd expansion and containing a number of records. The total inventory of hogs and p...
Market Commentary
Markets traded just slightly better overnight and found additional buying ahead of the USDA reports this morning. Wheat markets led the pre-report rally, t...
Some USDA Surprises
USDA released its revised acreage and 1 June quarterly stocks estimates at 12 p.m.(EDT) today. The acreage numbers for corn and spring wheat were slightly...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Rupee and Higher Input Costs Make Agriculture a Tough Choice Two developments that the government of India (GOI) had not anticipated are higher cru...
Market Commentary
It is the last full trading day before the sometimes-eventful June planting and quarterly stocks report. Based on the average trade estimates of acreage an...
Fixing Farm Supports; Not Stumbling; Saving GMOs; De-Globalization
Fixing Farm Supports The best defense is an offense, and China and India are demanding that the rich countries reduce their farm support payments. The dema...
Trump Promises Aid, But How?
6 July is the date when the U.S. will impose its first round of tariffs on imports from China and that country will retaliate with its own 25 percent tarif...
Oilseed Highlights: High-Protein Soy; China’s Soyoil Auction, EU and Chinese Soy Imports...
Biotech Company to Develop High-Protein Soybeans and Other Crops Amfora, a San Francisco-based biotech company, today announced it is going to employ a pat...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains traded quietly today with few traders willing to take, or build upon, positions ahead of Friday’s reports. Livestock futures were higher on sh...
Ag Review - June 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. meat industry, the global outlook for f...
Pending Hogs and Pigs Report; China Impact
Hogs and Pigs Report Coming USDA will release its quarterly hogs and pigs inventory report after trading closes today. The inventory as of 1 June is...
Market Commentary
After having announced them earlier, the Trump administration late Tuesday apparently decided not to impose special restrictions on Chinese investments in/...
Trade Fight Dustup; Transshipping Adds Cost; Wetlands Reform
Trade Fight Dustup Constituencies impacted by retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries are starting to doubt the wisdom of Trump trade policy. The bu...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 June 2018 Domestic prices were influenced by the first offers of 2018 grain entering the market, mainly winter barley. However...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
CBOT products bounced higher today as the Trump Administration confirmed it is backing away from new restrictions in investment and intellectual property p...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventories Surge Significantly Across China Soymeal stocks rose significantly countrywide except for a drop of 6,900 MT (-8.36 percent) t...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a quiet, low volume affair with only limited price changes for grains and the soy complex. As the day session progressed, however, wh...
Biofuel Standards and the Farm Bill Move Forward Today
It has been a busy policy day for agriculture with the EPA’s release of the proposed biofuel volumes for 2019 and the Senate taking up the farm bill...
Ag Subsidies Reform; EPA Disappoints; Interstate Wreck
Ag Subsidies Reform China and India are asking the WTO to immediately reduce the Amber Box agricultural subsidies that have been historically utilized by t...
Market Factors Ahead
As always, grain and soy markets along with those who trade in those commodities are looking ahead at several factors with the potential to move prices. Cu...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains markets were mostly steady/weaker today with soybeans and wheat falling once again and corn posting small gains. There is growing harvest pressure i...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS At least 10 shipments of wheat (totaling 170,000 MT) have been delivered to Syria over the past 10 mont...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Tariffs; Brazil’s Soy Area; U.S. Biodiesel, India’s Soybeans; Ukrainian Rapeseed
China Eliminates Animal Feed Tariffs for Five Countries The Chinese government announced today that it will eliminate tariffs on imports of soybeans, soyme...
Disparate Adjustments; Hug a Farmer; Losers and the Outlook
Disparate Adjustments Trade uncertainty is hitting everyone. China will reportedly flush its state-owned enterprises with cash, which may not improve their...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
USDA’s July estimate of U.S. hard red winter wheat production will likely be lower. We (and others) assume the Kansas harvested acreage number will b...
Market Commentary
Markets were all lower overnight, and that pattern accelerated throughout today’s session with wheat, corn and soybeans all suffering big losses at t...
Cattle on Feed
The 1 June cattle on feed (COF) inventory set a new June record at 11.6 million head. That was down slightly from the previous month, which was the second-...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was quiet last week compared with after the U.S.-China trade war announcement when buyers became nervous and...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week due to the approaching harvest and pressure on the futures markets in the EU and U.S. The weather i...
Battlefront Reporting; Technical Limits; Poopy Water; Migrant Pressures
Battlefront Reporting Another day and more news on the trade war front. On the first day of new retaliatory tariffs by the EU on U.S. goods, German automak...
Market Commentary
It was a peaceful night session with corn and wheat showing very little change. Meanwhile, soybeans were 7-8 cents higher with meal up $2.00-3.00. Markets...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed on June 1, 2018 was up 4 percent above year ago. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter in U.S. feedlots with capac...
RVOs and Reallocation
This could be the day the EPA issues the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) proposal for ethanol use in 2019 and biodiesel use in 2020. It would be subject...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Soymeal Prices May Move Up if Exports Continue Soybean and soymeal prices moved lower last week but had some upward movement near its end, and they...
No NAFTA Yet Either
Markets have been obsessed with the failure of the U.S. and China to reach any sort of agreement regarding their trade dispute. In fact, it’s not eve...
Market Commentary
Welcome to summer! Led by soybeans, which eased about 6 cents lower, trading during the overnight session found prices with a lower bias. The grains were m...
Trade War Endgame; Laudable Reorg; Mixt
Trade War Endgame Starting the trade war was “easy” for Mr. Trump, sustaining it will become more difficult for domestic political reasons. Tha...
Cattle on Feed; Compact Comeback?
Cattle on Feed Industry pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s Cattle on Feed report from USDA peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 June...
Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Prices; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Exports
Falling Palm Oil Prices Reach Two-Year Low Palm oil prices are declining because of anemic demand and the market turmoil caused by the U.S.-China trade dis...
Does Corn Have a Story to Tell?
Grain and soy markets are almost totally consumed by trade disruption and the latest trade war threats voiced in Washington and Beijing. They note retaliat...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Markets paused today to reassess the probable outcomes of the U.S.-China trade war. Corn and wheat found some buying support while soybeans remained on the...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
After trade war fears sank grain and soy futures yesterday, the overnight session opened cautiously. Prices edged a bit higher, but trading was tentative a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 June 2018 Domestic grain prices were influenced by the near beginning of the new season. Although the formation of new prices...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The Closing Bell Wrap-Up has finally returned from traveling the past few weeks. And what an exciting few weeks it has been. Trump and China started playin...
Predictable Trade War; Owed Freebies; Jurisdictional Meat; Sweet Natural Duplicity
Predictable Trade War After the Shanghai Composite Index plunged in value, the headlines say that the Chinese were “caught off guard” by Presid...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments Will China Ultimately Retaliate? Coming on the heels of President Trump’s announcement last week confirming that his administrati...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, so...
Looking Ahead at the China Trade Dispute
Yesterday President Trump asked the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percen...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Trade War Havoc
Trade wars invariably involve government actions intended to impede, punish or prevent imports and exports of goods between two or more countries. The most...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Tariff Impact on Upper Midwest; India’s Soyoil Tariff
Chinese Tariffs Impact on Upper Midwest Soybean Farmers Barring a settlement to the current trade dispute, China is expected to impose a 25 percent tariff...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As part of its budget control measures, Egypt has announced price increases of 35-40 percent for gasoli...
Illogical War; Illogical Reparations; Precaution or Hysteria?; Relations and Wars
Illogical War One can imagine more sophisticated approaches to rebalancing trade concessions than the one undertaken by the Trump administration. The presi...
China Tariffs and U.S. Exports
The imposition of trade tariffs on imports from China and that country’s corresponding retaliation against imports from the U.S. have had a profoundl...
Fed Gets Less Dovish
As expected, the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate last week by another 25 basis points to a target range...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War Trading was slow in Brazil last week with an old-crop basis rally due to lack of farmer selling and news on the...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how th...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market had a weaker tone last week with the new crop harvest approaching and as export commitments for the first quarter of the...
Trade War Chapters Three and Four; NAFTA Dairy Confusion; Tech Solution
Trade War Chapters Three and Four President Trump’s “easy to win” trade war is heating up, and U.S. farm groups are beginning to push bac...
The Farm Bill’s Path Forward
As clients will recall, the House farm bill was sunk in May on a vote of 198-213. No Democrats voted for it due to the work requirement reforms pertaining...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that rega...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expec...
What USDA Didn’t Say
This week’s WASDE report from USDA was considered slightly bullish for prices, although that certainly wasn’t apparent by the market’s ac...
Market Commentary
The rout continues. Grains and soy complex futures prices fell again overnight, and they continued to drop throughout the day session. Interestingly, corn...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Roadblock Italy; Lemon to a Knife Fight
Roadblock Italy The new Italian government says it will not ratify the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada. It is a...
Farm Bill Provisions; Red Meat Price Spreads
Farm Bill Livestock Provisions The Senate Agriculture Committee made short work of the 2018 Farm Bill markup yesterday. A total of 66 amendments (slightly...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Sales; U.S. Soy; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; Brazil’s Strike Aftermath
China Sells Reserve Soybeans China’s National Grain Trade Center today announced the government sold 192,324 MT of reserve stock soybeans at auction...
Decision Time on Chinese Trade
These days it may seem as though grain markets have little else to consider beyond the U.S./Chinese trade dispute and its potential ramifications. We proba...
Export Sales
Wheat export sales data begins the new 2018/19 marketing year. Corn net sales of 936,400 MT for 2017/2018 were up 12 percent from the previous week and 2 p...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 June 2018 Domestic grain prices on the Russian market mostly grew. Meanwhile, export prices mainly dropped as 2018 production st...
FB: Boring Bipartisanship; Triangulating Trade Arrangement; Farm Policy Purpose
FB: Boring Bipartisanship The Senate Agriculture Committee approved its farm bill proposal by a vote of 20-1. Only Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley v...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures started out firmer on follow-through from yesterday’s post-report rally. However, that did not last long. The market’s at...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Sets Stage for Sourcing New Feedstuffs When China’s central government closed out May with a public declaration in support...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to de...
Trends Underlying Biofuel Use
With the Senate Agriculture Committee’s markup of the farm bill tomorrow morning, a number of amendments are being prepared. This includes one from S...
WASDE Soyoil
The 2018/19 season-average price for soybean oil prices is projected at 29.5 to 33.5 cents per pound. The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and demand forecast...
WASDE Soymeal
Higher soybean meal domestic disappearance reflects stronger-than-expected use for the marketing year through April. Soybean meal exports are raised based...
U.S.-Canada Road Forward; Limits of Tariffs; Real Ag Problems
U.S.-Canada Road Forward Donald Trump initially thought that U.S. agriculture was a problem for him since the sector was so paranoid about trade retaliatio...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates this month that U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 will include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower en...
USDA’s June WASDE
June WASDEs typically provide few surprises and little market movement. Taken individually, not one of USDA’s new estimates and projections is very s...
WASDE Corn
USDA noted that export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that World 2018/19 wheat supplies decrease this month by 1.2 million tons. Production declines in Russia, the EU, and Mexico did not fully o...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Oilseed Sector; EU Rapeseed
Brazil’s Conab Raises Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today raised its estimate for that country’s 2018 soybean...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria and Russia are said to be developing a shipping route between Tartus, Syria and Sebastopol, Crime...
Ethanol Snapshot
One month ago today, the EPA sent its proposed rule for the 2019 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuel use to the Office of Management and Budget...
G6 Decision; Leveling the Playing Field; Peronist Pope; G7 Reaction; Leveraging Argentina
G6 Decision The G7 meeting did not go well - at least from everyone’s perspective except Donald Trump’s. It went exactly as he expected and int...
Any USDA Surprises Tomorrow?
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply/demand) report tomorrow. Will there be any substantive surprises in tomorrow’s numbers? That is doubtful. It...
Market Commentary
Markets were relatively quiet Sunday night, but corn and soybeans turned decidedly weaker today to finish with big losses. Funds started this week long eve...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market was slow last week. As it has been all year, the real was one of the big factors. The currency has been showing a huge...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The focus is on the new crop conditions in Russia and Ukraine. The drought is persis...
Protectionist in Chief?
Calling their bluff, President Donald Trump challenged his G7 partners to a trade agreement amongst the industrialist elite that would result in “no...
Fauxfundity; Worst DC Job
Fauxfundity EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today contained oversight, invention and contradiction. S...
Senate Farm Bill
Senate Ag Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) and Ranking Minority Member Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) briefed commodity groups and various other int...
Market Commentary
Profit taking, good weather and zero technical support left the CBOT to trade lower today with only corn managing to close a few cents higher. With the ong...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Exceeds Estimates; Open Market Prices Drop As of 4 June 2018, 34.724 MMT of wheat had been procured for 2018/19 by the Food Corporation o...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There has been market chatter this week that yields in parts of Oklahoma were better than expected, and that could mean USDA will increase hard red winter...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trading found prices around unchanged or slightly firmer except for wheat futures, which marched off to double-digit gains. There is more...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Auctions; U.S. Soy Exports; EU Soy Imports; German Rapeseed
China to Begin Auctions of Soybeans from State Reserves China’s National Grain Trade Center today announced the government will begin its auctions of...
Meeting Like No Other; Smorgasbord; Farm Policy Revolution; TKO
Meeting Like No Other There will be a G-7 meeting this weekend in Charlevoix, Canada that will be like no other. Donald Trump will square off against six o...
A World of Problems for Pigs
On 31 May, one day prior to implementation of the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, the Economy Secretariat of Mexico announced that until those are resc...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Exports versus Trade Policy
It is hard to discuss grain and soy markets without referencing the Trump administration’s actions and pronouncements about trade. Exports, after all...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Continued fund selling beat-down row crop futures today while wheat managed modest gains. The weather is increasingly bearish U.S. corn and soybeans while...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Dissecting the Trade War; Squashing Losers
Dissecting the Trade War Wrong Goal: During this past weekend’s bilateral negotiations, China offered to buy $70 billion worth of American farm, ener...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 May-1 June 2018 Domestic grain prices mainly grew as the volumes of stocks offered on the market were limited. Thus, despite the...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
Futures were higher overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that China had agreed to purchase $70 billion of U.S. energy and agriculture products...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Trends China Announces Tariff Reductions on Imported Consumer Goods On 31 May, China’s State Council announced a new round of tariff reduction...
Market Commentary
In a follow-up to Monday’s beating, grain and soy prices were slightly lower in early overnight trade. However, they managed to recover and were a bi...
Gulf of the Atlantic; Rice Where Needed; Weird, and Trading Terms
Gulf of the Atlantic The EU’s differences with Washington extend beyond trade policy and into fundamental political philosophy. Brussels is trying to...
RIN Trading and RFS Reallocation
With the Trump administration’s plan to reduce RIN prices expected to be released at any moment, it was timely that the Intercontinental Exchange (IC...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Tariffs; China’s Drought; Brazil’s Soybean Exports
India Expected to Raise Vegoil Tariff Rates Undisclosed sources in India’s government have told Reuters that officials are considering a hike in the...
What Does the Corn Market Offer?
Agricultural futures traders are aware that futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans and soy products tend to go down at a much faster rate than they rise...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Tunisia’s grain harvest for this year is...
All in Trade War; Ag is Front and Center; Energy as Trade Proxy
All in Trade War The lack of a China-U.S. agreement on trade this past weekend in Beijing means that things will get worse before they get better. Each sid...
Deal Coming on Biofuels: Export RINs For E15
A number of lawmakers had been seeking an immediate waiver for E15 this summer, but the deadline for that has passed. E15 cannot be sold from 1 June...
Trump Trade Trumps Weather
Markets continued their collapse today, following a lack of progress in the weekend trade talked between China and the U.S. The hardline Trump trade talk h...
Market Commentary
The news from the weekend trade talks with China wasn’t good, which prompted a continuation of last week’s sell-off in wheat, corn, and soybean...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes Argentina’s difficult economic situation forced the Argentine peso to devaluate from 21 to 25.5 pesos/dollar in May. The Argentine gover...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was lower last week as the old-crop/new-crop inverse is eroding. The new-crop harvest is expected to start in 2 weeks in...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Senate Farm Bill In The Next Two Weeks
Details are emerging from the Senate about that Chamber’s deliberations over the 2018 farm bill. Though still described as a “moving target,&rd...
Battle Stations; Ag to the Fore; Contrasting Reactions
Battle Stations Whether it is a trade war or merely a trade dispute or trade discussion, there’s firing going on in both directions. The Trump Admini...
All in Just Four Trading Days?
A week ago, WPI wrote about how farmers are optimistic about better markets for 2018 based on several at least somewhat positive factors. We should have wa...
Market Commentary
Markets had an interesting finish to a mostly bearish holiday-shortened trading week. Prices were steady to firm overnight and started today’s sessio...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn and Soymeal Exports Could Keep Prices High Indian corn is competitive and finding markets in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Vietnam continues to import India...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Market Commentary
Today’s news was dominated by trade matters that potentially could be important for grain and soy markets. President Trump declared that beginning to...
Macron Solution; NAFTA Ultimatum; Regulated Market; Sweet it Ain’t
Macron Solution French President Emmanuel Macron correctly reacted to the U.S. imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum by calling for an overhaul of th...
Livestock Slaughter Trends
Livestock slaughter weights have been diverging this year with cattle trending down and hogs trending up. The heavier slaughter weights for hogs likely st...
Oilseed Highlights: Stalled Brazilian Exports...
Brazilian Exports Still Stalled After Trucker Strike Ends Some truckloads of soybeans and other commodities have begun to arrive at Brazilian processing pl...
Refining the Volcker Rule
If there is a common thread tying together the vast jungle of complex banking regulations that emerged from the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial market reform leg...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Light trading volume gave way to slightly higher wheat prices, afternoon weakness in corn and lower closes in soybeans. The trade is reevaluating market fu...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Errors of Approach; Name and Disparagement Marketing
Errors of Approach The Trump negotiating modus operandi is chaos, which worked in real estate transactions where he was the lone voice on his side of the t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 May 2018 The average milling wheat export price remained stable at $212/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports were...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Profit taking and surprisingly good crop condition ratings sparked a sell-off at the CBOT today. The overnight session featured losses of 3 cents for corn,...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Holds Steady The feed market found new footing in the past week as demand from hog producers began picking up steam. Soymeal sal...
Market Commentary
The overnight session that started Monday evening was the first opportunity to trade CME grain and soy futures since Friday. Wheat futures traded higher, b...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report last Friday. The total number of cattle in feedlots with capacity of more than 1,000 as of 1 May was...
Policy Turbulence; Market Turbulence
Policy Turbulence Markets reacted today to the political uncertainty in Italy, but there are plenty of economic policy threats to go around. Some say that...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Trucker Strike; Argentine and Indonesian Biodiesel...
Brazil Trucker Strike Hits Agriculture Hard By all accounts, the trucker strike in Brazil that lasted for eight days is now ending after the government off...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Early morning gains gave way to afternoon losses in the CBOT markets while livestock futures were steady/higher. The weather remains moderately bullish row...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Syrian government expects that it will only be able to purchase about 1 MMT of local wheat in 2018...
Unknowns and Uncertainties
The Memorial Day weekend at the end of May is widely considered to be the beginning of summer even though that season’s solstice does not occur for a...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on Feed Up 5 percent to totaled 11.6 million head on May 1, 2018. This is the second highest May 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placeme...
Memorial Day
Monday, 28 May is a U.S. holiday, and the markets are closed that day. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on 29 May. ...
Politicians Politicizing; Whining about Wine; WTO Nonstarter
Politicians Politicizing U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has her state’s fishermen to protect from more innovative competitors, and so she is...
Ethanol Production Strong Despite Demand Worries
Another meeting was held at the White House yesterday regarding year-round approval for E15 as well as other reforms to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Markets opened the Thursday evening session marginally softer after yesterday’s weakness. Corn and wheat pushing to new highs yesterday morning and t...
Summer Is Here
The North American summer growing season can be considered “officially” underway with the long Memorial Day weekend. The northern half of the c...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a...
Reading Trump, Again; Economic Focus; Market Signals; Iran and China Impacts
Reading Trump, Again The Trump administration’s announcement of a Section 232 investigation into automobile imports as a national security threat onl...
Market Commentary
The general grain and soy rally surged ahead overnight with soybeans and wheat reaching double-digit gains, while more timid corn futures managed to climb...
Cattle on Feed
USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May to...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Export Taxes; China’s Soy Purchases…
Argentina May Freeze Soy Export Tax Rates Argentine Finance Minister Nicolas Dujovne has proposed freezing export tax rates for soybeans and soymeal/soyoil...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds started the morning sharply higher on weather worries and the improved trade outlook. As the day progressed, however, President Trump&r...
Ag Review - May 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...
Ag Trade Crossroads
It can be argued that the most immediate impact on prices for major U.S. agricultural crops and products that the government can cause comes from actions a...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Clobbering Europe; Technology Downfall
Clobbering Europe EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malmström correctly expressed doubts that the latest offer to the Trump administration for avoiding its st...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded both narrowly and slightly lower overnight in diminished volume. A flurry of sometimes contradictory statements from administr...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 May 2018 Domestic grain prices on the Russian market mainly increased for last season’s production in all regions except...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It was a day of green at the CBOT/CME, with grains, oilseeds, and livestock contracts all rising. Trade resolutions (tentative though they may be) added to...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Again as Crushing Output Drops Because of declining downstream demand, domestic crushers cut utilization rates to below 50...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s active trade-driven session saw the huge unwinding of long soybean—short corn/wheat spreads, thanks to the agreement to suspend thr...
More Massive, Meaningful; NAFTA Reality; Farm Bill Deal
More Massive, Meaningful There are still problems interpreting the meaning of the China-U.S. trade truce announced this past weekend as well as questions o...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Oilseed Highlights: Global Soybean Demand Growth; South American and Ukrainian Crop Forecasts
Global Soybean Demand Continues to Outpace Demand for Other Major Crops USDA’s forecasts for global demand in 2018/19 indicate growth in that for soy...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Weather support and trade optimism boosted the grains markets today. The spread unwinding that hammered the wheat market yesterday was done, allowing the c...
Fed’s Next Move
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting again in June, and the markets are expecting a federal fund rate hike to 2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Ramadan, the month of fasting, started last week in the region’s Muslim countries. It continues u...
Wheat’s Story
We often talk about the stories that are told to grain and soy futures markets (and those who trade in them) by the underlying crop that each represents. E...
Immodest Measurements; Debtor Impacts; Confess the Data
Immodest Measurements The China-U.S. truce and concentrated effort at achieving a trade agreement has brought optimism, but it should be a limited amount...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian soybean market fell steadily last week as the depreciating Brazilian real pressured prices. The currency reached 3.8 reals/US...
The Importance of Sorghum
China removed the import duties on U.S. sorghum last week, and that gave the corn market a real lift. It has been importing U.S. sorghum since the flap ove...
Market Commentary
Markets opened strong last night, and the soybean market extended that strength into big gains today. The story was the unexpectedly good news that the U.S...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Senate Farm Bill Outlook
Now that the farm bill failed in a vote on the House floor, all eyes are on the Senate as a chance to regain some momentum. Senate Agriculture Committee Ch...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The cash market in the Black Sea remained about unchanged despite the U.S. and EU futures markets’ sharp rally. Crop conditions in Russ...
CBOT Gains on “Massive” Trade News
Good morning! CBOT ag products are sharply higher after President Trump’s morning tweet that China pledged to buy “massive amounts” of U...
2018 Farm Bill Falls for the First Time
The House leadership tried to power through final consideration of the farm bill today, but it failed due to a left-right coalition of all Democratic membe...
Farm Bill Hurdle; China-U.S. Trade Solutions; Stick a Fork in It
Farm Bill Hurdle As predicted by WPI early this week (see here), the farm bill was voted down in the House today (198 213). Despite its failure, surprises...
Market Commentary
News overnight that China had dropped the import tariffs on U.S. sorghum ignited a nice rally in the corn market, which carried over to this morning and he...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Sugar Production Keeping Prices Low India’s sugar production could reach 31.5 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association (IS...
Weather Check!
The National Weather Service issues its updated long-term weather forecasts once each month. Obviously, the May and June updates are important because they...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were firmer overnight with wheat the leader. Winter and spring wheat futures traders seemed inspired by wheat’s ability to avoi...
EU Companies on Firing Line; GSP Leveraging Thailand
EU Companies on Firing Line EU members agreed yesterday to stand up to Donald Trump by invoking a 1996 statute that would prevent European companies from a...
Farm Bill Livestock Amendments; Unsettled Trade Deals Hit Broilers
Yesterday (16 May) the House passed the rule governing the floor debate on the farm bill by a vote of 229-185. Also covered under this rule are the Protect...
U.S. Soybeans and China
Everyone involved in the production, marketing, processing, exporting and consumption of soybean products around the world is waiting for news about the U...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Dry weather across Australia and Canada continues to support wheat prices while uncertainty about NAFTA/U.S.-China trade terms pulled corn and soybeans low...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales and Shipments; Argentine Soy Quality
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed those sales for the week ending 10 May were lower for soybeans and soyoil but muc...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
The lack of any news from the U.S./Chinese trade meeting was disconcerting. Mostly as a result of this, soybeans were unable to build on Tuesday’s la...
Bombs Beat Beans; The Trump Package; Organic Subterfuge
Bombs Beat Beans During the 1980s as the Cold War raged on, the Defense Department opined in the interagency process that U.S. agriculture’s attacks...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 May 2018 Rising minimal prices on the domestic market, driven in part by high demand from processors and growing prices for pro...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Trade uncertainties continued to weigh on corn and soybeans while weak cash prices pull cattle futures lower. The news today is the lack of news from the o...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Declines Following Month-Long Surge After four consecutive weeks of steady increases, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory...
Market Commentary
It was an erratic and somewhat volatile day of trade for grain and soy futures. Financial markets also experienced an uptick in volatility, and this may ha...
Busy Week for Agriculture
This is a busy week for the agricultural policy world. The administration is engaged in trade negotiations with China as well as NAFTA partners Mexico and...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distill...
False: Equivalence; Economies; Hopes; Fears
False Equivalence In asserting its right to be treated like a market economy, China claimed in Geneva this week that its industrial subsidies are no differ...