Recent Biofuels Analysis
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
E15’s Rube Goldberg Regulations
Last Friday, 19 April, the EPA issued an emergency waiver for E15 to be sold through the summer driving season. The topline takeaway of that action is positive for the ethanol sector, but the practicality of implementing the new rule is more complex. Indeed, the structure of the Cle...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Biofuel Round-Up
E15: It is 9 April; by 1 May terminals that blend gasoline with ethanol need to be in compliance with summer-grade gasoline specifications that are effective on 1 June. The ethanol industry has pressed EPA for another emergency waiver for year-round E15 use in the summer of 2024. EPA did approv...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was unsurprising in that managed money funds were net sellers through Tuesday’s data reporting period, which obviously coincided with the new contract lows in the grain markets. Funds were aggressive net sellers in corn, SRW wheat, and soyoil but were more cautious...
A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels
At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the SRW wheat contract. Equally unsurprising was the net buying by managed money traders in soymeal and soyoil as they’ve largely whittled...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Rhetoric Meets Reality; Miscalculating Renewables; TTC and AI
Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne liked that angle and similarly blamed his country’s retailers for food inflation. Major retailer Carrefour then blamed suppli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Small Refinery Exemptions Under the RFS Back in the Spotlight
A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A court decision in the 5th District Circuit Court brought that topic back to the forefront, and will add more complexity, volatility, and unce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Renewable Diesel as “Regional Diesel”
In 2022, renewable diesel (RD) utilization (based on product supplied) surpassed biodiesel (BD) use. For Q1 of 2023, RD has extended the gap. This is not surprising given the rapid expansion of RD capacity in the past couple of years. What also was expected, but perhaps still slightly surprisi...
EPA Effectively Clears the Board of Pending SREs, Projects Not Approving Future Petitions
The EPA announced on Friday that it denied 26 requests for “small refinery exemptions” (SREs) over the periods of 2016-2018 and 2021-2023. There are still two SRE petitions pending for the 2018 compliance year. SRE’s have been a contentious issue for several years. SREs...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Will EPA Flip Off the Switch for Electric Vehicles Under the RFS?
EPA is facing a 14 June deadline to finish the 2023-2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The date was set by consent decree with the courts. Recall, the proposed RVOs released in November 2022 included electric vehicles (EVs) as part of the overall vo...
EPA’s E15 Waiver for 2023 in Effect Today
On 28 April, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted a waiver for the use of E15 during the 2023 summer driving season, which is 1 June - 15 September. This is under the same regulatory authority as was used in 2022 to address an emergency fuel situation. The Clean Air Ac...
Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight
The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feature more favorable planting conditions for most of the Midwest and Northern Plains in the next few weeks, which helped pressure corn, soybea...
Long Term Energy Outlook: Exporting Ethanol, Importing Biomass Based Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023 – that report is the Department of Energy’s equivalent to USDA’s long term baseline projection. The USDA’s report forecasts out to 2032, while the AEO forecasts to...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA issued a one-year emergency waiver to allow year-round E15 in part to reduce retail gasoline prices in response to supply chain disruptions, t...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages long, and away from the top line summary, there are a few other bits of information worth taking a second look at and putting into context w...
Proposed RVOs: Canola Oil and Electric Vehicles are the Winners
The EPA released the proposed required volume obligations for 2023 through 2025 yesterday. Below is a summary of the proposed volumes by category. The top takeaways: In a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewable die...
American Petroleum Institute Backs Year-Round E15
The American Petroleum Institute (AP), the association of oil drilling, refining, and natural gas producing companies, joined this week in signing a letter to Congress backing a move to grant year-round use of E15. Other signatories to the letter included the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), G...
2023 Biofuel RVOs Delayed from Tomorrow Release
The EPA’s proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for 2023 will not be released tomorrow as was previously expected under the terms of a consent decree, which originally set a date of 16 September. That was later agreed by both parties to be extended to 16 November. Those parties inclu...
King and Queen Pillage the Village
King corn is losing a battle with Queen soybeans, and this has activated the politicians for another round of support. Renewable diesel is projected to increase five-fold from 1 billion to 5 billion gallons by 2026. Almost $2.6 billion is being invested in increased soybean crush capacity to me...
Future of the RFS 2023 and Beyond
2023 marks a major shift in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). From the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act until this year, the annual required volume obligations (RVOs) under the RFS were set by statute; that changes in 2023, and so could the mix of renewable fuels – or at least t...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decree from EPA with the biofuels association Growth Energy who filed a complaint in April over EPA’s failure to promulgate a rule establi...
60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch
In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007 with the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) which expanded those categories. The bottom line is that renewable fuels were schedule...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
EPA’s Final RVO Rule
As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels blending levels for 2021 (retroactively) and 2022 (six months late, and five months into the compliance year). Following is the br...
No 1970’s Analog
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish a so-called soft-landing of the economy back down to a low inflation, modest growth, low unemployment scenario. An increasing number of voices are signaling their skepticism that this can be accomplished. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even concedes...
Dwindling Diesel Stocks, Increasing Demand
Add diesel fuel supplies to market anxieties over shortages and high prices. Diesel hit all-time record prices this week. Both gasoline and diesel rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but in the last two weeks, diesel prices spiked again. And the medium-term outlook remains bu...
Eight State Plan for E15 Equivalent to Adding One Large Ethanol Mill
In April, the Biden Administration’s EPA announced that it would provide a temporary waiver for year-round E15 (see WPI’s article about the immediate market reaction here, and a breakdown of the actual impact here). In the end, the waiver adds about 107 days of more demand for E15 i...
Ethanol Sobriety Check
Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act’s requirements. Ethanol makes sense as an octane booster but less so as a gasoline substitute. Blending at the E15 level is already allow...
Ag Policy Options Being Consider Regarding Russia/Ukraine Situation
As is typical when there is a crisis – from foreign policy issues, to the China trade situation, to animal disease, to COVID, and more – the market gets bombarded with rumors, leaks and speculation about potential emergency policy actions which may – or may not – be take...
Trade Policy Confusion; Energy Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion In its annual report to Congress yesterday on trade relations with China, USTR asserted that, “China has a poor record when it comes to complying with WTO rules” and suggested the Biden Administration is looking for a new strategy to address the Middle Kingdom...
E15 versus EVs
As we wrote just over one year ago, on 1 February 2021, … the general trend of fuel policy is clearly shifting the struggle from how much of the tank is filled with gasoline versus biofuel to a struggle between liquid fuel and alternatives. … Whether the petroleum and biofuels ind...
RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook
Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...
EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade
On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December. The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes. EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...
Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines
Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (RVOs) from EPA. We noted that Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, informed EPA via a 2 November letter of its intent to file suit if...
SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish
President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be in the form of a 32-million-barrel exchange solicitation to be open for bids tomorrow and the accelerating of 18 million-barrel to be sold w...
Where’s the RVO?
The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rural America.” Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, mentioned in her testimony that “We are also a...
October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA
Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after months of rallies and needed to “cool off”. December Paris milling wheat futures were down €3/MT today and pulled back fro...
Bullish Ethanol Production
USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2020, starting the marketing year off in the right direction. Moreover, ethanol production for the week ending 22 October hit 1.106 million b...
Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion
Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that this spending category has been relatively flat for many years. This ignores that fact that private spending on agricultural R&D has bee...
Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO
Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 meeting begins at the end of October in Glasgow. Leaders gathered there will likely review the UN Environment Program’s released Product...
High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs. First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...
Ongoing Biofuel Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels only varies based on assumptions about economic growth and petroleum prices. This projection does...
Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil
After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the August exports were still down about 17 percent from last year and from the previous five-year average for the month. Year-to-date exports (th...
Ag Review - September 2021
For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economics and clients’ needs, this will be our last edition. We will continue to include historical analysis with our successful daily Ag Per...
Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”
There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the attention of industry supporters on Capitol Hill, especially Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). There have been rumors for months that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $12.85/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?
The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and the “potential for a fully zero-carbon aviation sector by 2050.” That would be 3 billion gallons annual use by 2030, and potent...
Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?
The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Friday, the proposal was sent from EPA for review last Thursday. What is in the proposal is still a mystery, however. That differs from last yea...
RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020
We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question was when? We now know the answer: yesterday. There has been...
Biofuel Falters
U.S. biofuel makers are disappointed that U.S. EPA is not more aggressively pushing fuel blending, but their plight is consistent with the pandemic related faltering in global biofuel production. The International Energy Agency (EIA) says that 10 percent annual increases are needed in global bi...
Ball of Confusion: Waiting on RFS Volumes
The EPA will be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question is: when? As of this morning, there is no record of the proposal being sent to OMB for f...
PM Post - Bears Own the Day
THE OPEN Nov beans: 18 lower Dec meal: 4.00 lower Dec soyoil: 96 pts lower Dec corn: 9 lower Dec wheat: 12 lower The markets opened as expected but weaker outside markets, bearish Pro Farmer Crop tour comments, and rains forecasted for the weekend took a toll on th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...
Short Term Energy Outlook: Bullish Biodiesel
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO); the report projects biodiesel production for 2021 to remain at the same level as 2020, which unlike ethanol, was up from 2019. For 2022, biodiesel production is forecast to increase 15 percent over...
GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?
GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...
Long Term Ethanol Question: Electric Vehicles – Fact or Fantasy?
Last week, President Biden issued an executive order as part of his “Build Back Better” initiative that calls for targeting all vehicle sales to reach 50 percent electric vehicles by 2030. Specifically, setting the goal of “half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions...
Ag Review - July 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, competition in the oilseeds market, the outlook of the meat industry, policies surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standards under the Biden Admin...
E15 Legislation Proposed
As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales, and we noted that “biofuels groups have said that “every legal, regulatory and legislative option&...
Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15
The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EPA decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales. This comes on the heels of the Supreme Court ruling on the extension of SRE waivers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; DC Court Rules Against E15; Wheat Decouples from Corn
Note: The CBOT/CME markets are closed Monday, 5 July 2021 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. CBOT trade was expectedly quiet heading into the long U.S. holiday weekend and ended mixed for the day. Corn settled lower with profit taking and more renewable fuels policy drama while soybea...
Ag Review - June 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...
Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps
As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA’s granting of small refinery exemptions (SREs) to meet the renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes. Recall that in January 2020, the 10...
Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending
The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcoming. As of today, however, OMB does not have the proposal listed on its dashboard of regulations under review. The Administration...
RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?
On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. But Friday was also the day that the Administration released its regulatory agenda, which included the following regarding the RFS and biofuel...
RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers
When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political base constituencies, environmentalists and labor. The groups are different than they were for the Trump Administration - agriculture and petrol...
Ag Review - May 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding market demand for ethanol, pork, and poultry, as well as future issues impacting the agriculture sector and the politics surrounding them. You’ll a...
2021 and 2022 RVOs Could be Kept at 2020 Levels
The EPA is floating a trial balloon of maintaining the 2020 RVOs for 2021 and 2022. In April, a group of Senators urged EPA to add 500 million gallons to the ethanol RVO to amend for the 2016 court case that ruled the EPA improperly waived that amount, and to “increase biodiesel, advanced...
Ethanol Price Impact
The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in recovery mode as transportation fuel demand recovers from COVID restrictions that had sent ethanol values last year to a 10-year record low of...
Ethanol Ripple Effects
Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation fuel may force more Brazilian sugar into ethanol production rather than food. The sugar market is very tight on reduced output. U.S. ethano...
Colonial Pipeline Cyber Attack and Biofuels
On Friday, the Colonial Pipeline, which is the largest refined product pipeline in the U.S., running 5,500 miles from Texas to New Jersey, was attacked by ransomware, assumed to be launched by hackers in Russia. The pipeline was forced to close. The company is slowly reopening lateral pipelines...
Ethanol Exports and Domestic Production Rebound
Ethanol exports in March were 133 million gallons and more than a third of that went to China. The 48.3 million gallons exported to China is the second highest monthly total on record, just 8,278 gallons below April 2016. Recall that in 2016, China was the fastest growing market for U.S...
Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics
Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...
RFS Waivers and RINs Prices
On 22 February, we noted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear a challenge to the 10th District Court’s ruling on small refinery exemptions (SREs). In January, the Department of Justice, acting as counsel for the EPA, had requested that the Supreme Court not hear the case and instead...
New EPA Administrator Resetting the RFS Clock
The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to be Administrator of the U.S. EPA this week by a vote of 66-34. Since 2017, Regan has been Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and previously he worked at EPA in the air office. That experience will come in handy as he has to...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; South America Soy; Renewable Diesel
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated there was a rebound in soybean export sales in the week ending 25 February. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also increased last week compared to the previous week. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 334,000 MT for...
Ethanol Corn Use and Outlook
USDA released the January Grain Crushings report yesterday; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 11 percent from January 2020, and down 6 percent from January 2019. Dry mill production of DDGS was 1.7534 MMT during January 2021, 90 percent of last year and 98 percent of December. On the ye...
Ag Review - February 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at policy possibilities in the year ahead, the impact of government spending, world grain stocks, pork demand, climate change, international market analysis and much more. ...
EPA Adopting 10th District Ruling on SREs
The U.S. EPA announced a major change in the agency’s perspective on granting small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the renewable fuel standard. In short, EPA will apply the ruling of the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on granting SREs. Recall that in January...
Electric Vehicles, Political Distrust and Ethanol Demand
Last week, General Motors announced that in an effort to lower its emissions its goal will be to produce 40 percent of its car and light duty vehicles as electric powered. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFS) commented through a statement from CEO Geoff Cooper. I would encourage people to take...
COVID Impact on Ethanol Triggered Thinking on Long Term Ethanol Demand
The current renewable fuel standard (RFS) went into place in 2008 after the legislation was passed in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA); that bill raised the biofuel obligations from the original 2005 Energy Policy Act’s initial RFS. Of course, COVID in 2020 had a major...
Ag Review - December 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at global food supplies, the direction of the diesel market, Russia’s crop production, the future of agribusiness under the new Biden Administration, an analysis of market...
Heads Up: 2021 RVO for Biofuels is Coming
We previously reported that the Trump Administration EPA would likely “punt” on issuing the 2021 required volume obligations (RVOs) rule and leave it to the incoming Biden EPA. Specifically, we speculated that “a retroactive 2021 RVO would be issued next spring/summer” b...
Diesel Market Slowly Returning to Balance
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, at the end of November, U.S. distillate inventories fell to 145.8 million barrels, which was back within the previous five-year (2015–19) range for the first time since 8 May. Diesel demand dropped to its low the most in June and fu...
Ag Review - November 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at the global and local impacts of the recent U.S. election, President-Elect Biden’s trade agenda, fiscal policy and the U.S. federal budget, the challenges of long-term f...
Thanksgiving Week Fuel Demand and Budget Negotiations
Thanksgiving week is typically the biggest travel week of the year, but recent COVID lockdowns following a new spike in cases lowered travel this year. Although air travel was up more than expected last weekend, auto travel was down. Last week was the lowest price for gasoline the week before T...
Biden EPA Could Inherit an Obama-Biden Era RFS Court Ruling
With controversy over small refinery exemptions (SREs), election year political strategies, and COVID, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) never issued the required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 as required under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The statutory deadline is one week fr...
COVID Spike and Ethanol Outlook
The final required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 biofuel blending mandates is due in 17 days; that is a statutory requirement (although missed more than met since 2007 when it was implemented). However, not only has it not been issued, but the proposed rule has also yet to be published by...
Thinking About the Coming Supply of Brazilian DDGS
Back in 2013, under the U.S. sugar program, sugar refiners and processors were headed toward forfeiting more than 350,000 MT of sugar under loan, which triggered the Feedstock Flexibility Program (FFP). That program, created in the 2008 farm bill, requires USDA to purchase surplus sugar (techni...
Gasoline and Ethanol Use Forecast Down for 2021
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cutting ethanol, biodiesel, and gasoline use projections for 2021. EIA’s forecast of actual ethanol blending for 2021 is about 13.92 billion gallons, which is 11 percent of the forecast 126...
Ag Review - September 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue reviews notable changes in agriculture trade, the impact of the 2020 U.S. election on agriculture legislation, China’s potential influence on the election, Brazil's ethanol policy an...
New Gasoline Octane Standard Proposed for Higher Ethanol Blends
Last week, Representative Cheri Bustos (D-Illinois) introduced the Next Generation Fuels Act. The legislation would establish a new 98 octane standard for gasoline and would require that octane sources in motor fuel result in at least a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions com...
Biodiesel, Soyoil Holding up to COVID Better Than to EU Tariffs
The EU has extended its countervailing duties (CVDs) on U.S. biodiesel which was set to expire this month. The duties were put in place in 2009, renewed in 2011, and again in 2015. But earlier this month, the European Biodiesel Board petitioned for an extension citing … sufficient eviden...
EPA Moving Down Biofuels’ Policy Checklist
After last week’s EPA announcement on gap year SREs, the agency updated its actions on the SRE waivers, denying more than 50 petitions. There are still 17 left, but those are the petitions that as of July had not been reviewed by the Department of Energy (DOE). All the retroactive petitio...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured soybeans in early trade. Corn benefited from unwinding of prior long soybeans/short corn spreads and additional export sales announcements...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments
As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance to agricultural processing plants in the event of a public health emergency in order to assure the continuation of markets for agricultural...
Market Commentary
It was a technical runup today that will correct lower but there is a Chinese curveball in play. The fundamentals remain weak – look at today’s Export Sales report. And Tuesday’s WASDE will reinforce this viewpoint. But now China is an interesting side play. The Middle Kingdom...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was slow and mixed for most of Tuesday, with a slight uptick in commercial pricing interest supporting corn, soybean, and SRW wheat values. Funds are thought to have been modest net buyers of corn and soybeans. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report highlighted the raw efficiency wit...
Market Commentary
One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on display this afternoon as the CBOT finished lower despite early morning gains. Demand has thinned in recent days amid the modest CBOT rally, a...
Policy Fallout from COVID-19
The Senate will return to session on Monday. Though the House will not return, debate on a fourth COVID-19 relief package will begin. This likely will be the most contentious bill; all of the basics – unemployment, business lending, food and nutrition programs, and farm payments have all...
Corn Market Challenge
We have commented before about the broad negative impact that the worldwide coronavirus pandemic is having on demand for raw materials ranging from copper and energy to renewable commodity crops such as grain, oilseeds and cotton. This situation, along with the strange decision by the Saudis an...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.145/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Ag Review - April 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the economic downturn and its impact on agriculture demand, what happens as a result of the meat packing plant closures from COVID-19, the shipping problems in Latin America from th...
Lower Fuel Use Reignites RFS Fight
As of last week, according to the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), 73 of the nation’s 200 ethanol plants are idled and 70 percent are operating at reduced capacity. This would imply that 57 are still operating at normal output levels. Those plants have seen their gross margins bounce on...
Similar Transatlantic COVID-19 Impacts
According to the latest Short-term Outlook from the European Commission, the agrifood sector on the Continent has been impacted by the economic shock, lockdown measures and uncertainty in similar ways to its American counterpart. Both have suffered less than other sectors of the economy. Mainte...
Details on the New Coronavirus Food Assistance Program
On Friday as part of the daily White House COVID19 briefing, Secretary Perdue announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP). It will come in two parts; the first will be direct payments to producers totaling $19 billion. The second will be a $3 billion commodity purchase progra...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Food security continues to be the primary market driver for Europe and most other regions around the world. Efforts to increase (at least perceived) food security include export restrictions, sales from government stockpiles, and requests for approval of imports from non-tradition...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher with some mild, continued short covering that eventually gave way to more bearish pressure. Position squaring heading into the April WASDE and the three-day weekend was dominant. Corn received a bearish jolt from the weekly EIA ethanol production report while wheat ended...
Drinking the Kool-Aid
U.S. ethanol production is plunging, and producers are demanding a fix. Some sources say that this week was the lowest ethanol output and highest stocks on record going back to 2010. Ethanol advocate and powerful Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is suggesting USDA/CCC funds could be used to stoc...
EIA Foreshadows WASDE on Ethanol
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today. April is the month that includes a forecast of the peak demand summer driving season fuel use, which runs from April through September. Total gasoline use is forecast to be down b...
Plant Closures – Pork, Beef and Ethanol
Tyson announced today that it has suspended operations at its Columbus Junction, IA pork plant. The closure is COVID-19 related for worker health protection after several contracted the virus. The plant has a capacity of about 10,000 head per day. Last week, total slaughter was 2.56...
Crude Oil and Feedlot Rations
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, efforts are afoot to put a safety net under global crude oil prices. President Trump is communicating with Saudi Arabia and Russia to coordinate a détente in their price and production war, and the so-called OPEC-Plus group, which includes OPEC memb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called mixed/lower to start today and it did just that. Corn and the soy complex were subject to fund selling and broke key technical support points while the wheat market strengthened on news of a Russian export quota. The livestock markets are in complete disarray and swung from...
COVID Domino Effect on Feed Rations and More
The COVID19 outbreak is like a pinball bouncing from sector to sector of the economy. In agriculture, for example, with shutdowns in place, transportation energy use is down, which has reduced ethanol demand, which in turn has reduced the production of DDGS, which in turn is creating a new puzz...
Upcoming RVO as Messy as SRE Issue
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $20.09/gallon, its lowest level since February 2002, and actually dipped below $20.00/gallon during trading. This makes a mess for blending economics for biofuel use. But there is a bigger problem – or two. First, the bearish oil p...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened mixed today with corn and soyoil posting new contract lows amid continued short selling. Commercial demand for wheat pulled that commodity higher and brought in buy wheat/sell corn spread trade. Commercial pricing in corn and the soy complex was notable today as bargain buying c...
Less Bad Situation
As pointed out by WPI contributor Jody Lefcourt, this is only the third time since the year 2000 that corn has been below $3.30/bushel. But agricultural commodity prices have thus far only fallen modestly relative to the scale of the current global disease and economic crisis. Moreover, overall...
Liquid Fuels Relief Request
The Renewable Fuels Association yesterday requested “equitable” relief for the “liquid fuel industries” given the coronavirus and the Russian/Saudi crude oil price war. In a statement, RFA noted: While the policy response to turbulence in the energy markets has so...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; Argentine Soy Exports; Crude Oil Collapse; U.S. PNW Soy
Forecast for Brazil’s Soybean Crop Increased Brazil’s crop supply agency (CONAB) this week increased its forecast for the 2020 Brazilian soybean crop. Its latest forecast is for a crop of 124.205 MMT (4.563 million bushels), up from its February forecast of 123.25 MMT (4.528 billion...
Market Commentary
“Pandemic” is the word of the day. The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus COVID19 outbreak an official pandemic today, which brought no comfort to global markets. The disease is keeping markets extremely volatile and the potential for governments to make economically...
Biofuels Waiting on EPA’s Decision on SREs
Last Thursday at a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the EPA Administrator said that a decision on how EPA would review and grant small refinery exemptions (SREs) would come within “days, not weeks.” The clock is ticking. The review is being driven by a decision of...
Biofuels: SREs and Renewable Diesel Trends
The RINs market reacted to a news story that EPA was planning on being stingy with future small refinery exemptions (SREs). That speculation was addressed by Administrator Wheeler at a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing yesterday. Wheeler said no decisions have been made about the SRE...
China's Tariff Reductions
China announced this morning a list of 696 U.S. products for which importers may apply for a tariff exemption. Importers must apply for the exemption by 2 March, with a particular volume of imports specified in the application. Import volumes above the applied for amount will be subject to the...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a strong note and moved higher for most of the day with the markets posting a mini rally following yesterday’s day of depressed trading. Wheat futures moved higher in a test of old support levels, which helped put a bid under corn as well. Outside markets were higher as...
Oilseed Highlights: NBB Biodiesel Goal; Mato Grosso Soybeans; Argentine Soy Crush
Biodiesel Board Establishes Overly Ambitious Goal This week the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) held its annual meeting. As part of that meeting the organization established a goal of producing 6 billion gallons of biodiesel in the U.S. by 2030 and 15 billion gallons by 2050. Any industry...
Quest for E15
Now that the EPA has promised that at least 15 billion gallons of ethanol will be blended into a total gasoline pool of about 142.4 billion gallons, the trick is how to expand sales of higher blends of ethanol. EIA is forecasting total gasoline consumption in 2020 to increase about...
China Scales Back Ethanol Use Goals
Just as hopes were high for resuming ethanol exports to China under the Phase One deal to be signed this week, China is suspending its national E10 ethanol blending plan which was to be in effect in 2020. While the E10 goal was never realistic – USDA’s FAS post in China estimated mi...
New Year Prediction: More RFS Changes Coming
Two weeks ago, EPA increased the blending requirement for ethanol and biodiesel under its supplemental small refinery exemption (SRE) proposal. More changes, and potentially additional volumes of biofuels, are likely in the new year. EPA has pulled its proposed RFS re-set proposal from OMB, whi...
Ag Review - December 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the trade war impacts, oil and ethanol developments, a potential next cattle ranching frontier, farm proposals and more. ...
Change Ahead For Agriculture
The current political turbulence in Washington dominates the wire service headlines and the attention of op-ed writers. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment against President Trump over the Ukraine affair and a charge of obstruction of Congress. This i...
RVO Countdown
Friday of this week could be EPA’s release date for the final rule on the 2020 required volume obligations (RVO). That rule would include the small refinery offset language proposed by EPA in October. The rule was sent from EPA to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on 6 December; O...
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in recent years illegal. Apparently, the American Petroleum Institute (API) agrees. In comments filedlate last week on EPA’s proposed...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil was down about $3.00 per barrel, gasoline down more than $0.08 per gallon and diesel about $0.07 per gallon. Ethanol followed, with the Janu...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). According to RFA’s survey of manufacturers’ owners’ manuals for automakers responsible for 95 percent of...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’s dictate on how they farm, and the Trump Administration is challenging the state on at least two fronts: the imposition of its own stiffer...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption, a review of the Department of Commerce’s international trade report and what it might tell us about the U.S. economy, an overview of...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret Waivers” about the small refinery exemption (SRE) process. Specifically, the hearing focused on a legislative proposal sponsored by Hou...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplement to the 2020 required volume obligations (RVOs). Both industries have reacted negatively and RINs prices have dropped, but the plan is un...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry and seafood, pushed up food inflation in September to its highest level since October 2011. Back in 2011, China was going through a maj...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the amount of SRE’s exempted in a program year by using as a reference the past three years’ volumes recommended by the Department of...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however, as we reported on Tuesday of this week, it is more likely that EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out...
Market Commentary
Trading started out on a firmer note before bulls backed off and let prices drift lower into the close. The trade is cautious of being too bullish about the October WASDE, having projected bullish statistics for almost every report this summer, only to have USDA release big crop/big stocks numb...
Ethanol Increase: More Art than Science
EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out at 15 billion gallons; that is the latest word on the new biofuels package proposed by the Administration according to commentary from EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. The 2020 RVOs have been a political hot potato for...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the current political situation on key policy issues and the markets. First, the easier to grasp matters, are the recent data releases. Yesterday, USD...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic disagreement in what the problem is. The biofuels industry argues that the small refinery exemptions (SRE) have caused “demand destruct...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial drawing board, and rest assured it is overlaid with a giant electoral map. If the plan’s fate does come down to raw electoral...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybeans in Parana and states in the Center West. That, in turn, allowed for an early harvest and earlier plantings of corn in the dry season. Thi...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers elsewhere in the world since China’s huge corn stocks keep global prices depressed. However, now Wu Tianlong of the quasi-governmental...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here). After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat with the Trump administration while attempting to show strength in advance of the 70th anniversary recognizing the founding of the People&rsq...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration is promising to boost ethanol use, via a tweet from President Trump “The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue’s statement, but with the Trump administration actively looking to help farmers, there are few traders w...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progress/overall success/exit strategy with respect to the trade dispute with President Xi and China revealed just how boxed in the hardliners in...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for E15 that effectively prevented the market from taking advantage, and, of course, the small refinery waivers. But, another factor has...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb. ($1.35/lb.) as of 14 August, a weekly gain of RMB 1.71/kg ($0.24/kg) or RMB 0.78/lb. ($0.11/lb.) that was the largest so far in 2019. It pu...
Trade, Ethanol, and Politics
In gearing up for agriculture and ag policy, the 2020 election cycle is being looked at through the prism of politics. Typically, the farm vote is reliably Republican. Aimpoint Research, in collaboration with Agri-Pulse Communications and the American Farm Bureau Federation, conducted a poll du...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Ethanol’s Uphill Fight
U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is accustomed to attacks from environmentalists, but attacks by farmers over the agency’s small refinery exemptions (SREs) from the ethanol blend requirement has exposed the soft underbelly of the Trump administration. The number of waivers has increa...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astounding 9.1 percent last month versus July 2018. Monthly food costs have not risen at this pace since January 2012, when China’s economy...
Ethanol, Pesticides and Politics
The EPA announced late Friday that it had granted 31 small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2018, bringing the total number to 7.4 percent of the overall 19.29-billion-gallon required biofuel volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). By comparison, the 2017 SREs were 9.4 percent...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Focus on New Products/Markets
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Supply Bulls, Demand Bears
Current grain and soy futures markets remind us of two old market clichés. The first is, “bears make money, bulls make money, but hogs get slaughtered.” The second is, “you never go broke taking a profit.” It appears that some fund managers may have forgotten or i...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Ethanol Use up Slightly, But Not Enough
The EPA published the 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for ethanol and biodiesel in today’s Federal Register, an unusually long lag after publically releasing the pre-publication announcement on 5 July. It will hold a public stakeholder hearing this Wednesday on the RVOs in Ypsilan...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw notably firmer prices with corn up 4 ¼ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents ,and SRW wheat up 8 cents. Forecasts for another heatwave across Europe (just as the region’s corn enters pollination and its spring wheat continues developing) were concerning, prompti...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the retroactive extension of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The most likely time frame for action on either appears to be in the fourth quarter o...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs for Fifth Straight Week With feed demand continuing to soften as more previously unidentified African swine fever (ASF) cases come to light, soybean inventories rose again to reach 924,700 MT as of 5 July 2019. That was 29,700 MT (+3.3 percent) higher than the...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-based molasses has superior nutritional qualities and has historically earned a premium. USDA pricing from more than a decade ago shows a 50...
Ethanol Facing Structural Changes in Liquid Fuel Market
The old saying “can’t see the forest for the trees” may be apt for the ethanol outlook for the next few years. Indeed, there’s been a great deal of looking at such trees as year-round E15 usage, small refinery wavers, the 2020 required volumes, and the upcoming Renewable...
EPA Announces 2020 Biofuel Volumes
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler signed the agency’s proposed 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) today, which will be published next week in the Federal Register and be open for public comments. The EPA will also hold a public hearing on the pro...
Ethanol Margins Low, Politics High
USDA released its Grain Crushing and Co-Production report today; total ethanol use of corn in May was 460 million bushels, which stands at 104 percent of April but 98 percent from the same period last year. DDGS production was 1.94 million tons. Corn gluten feed production from wet...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Meat Imports Surge in May as Domestic Shortfall Increases Monthly data from China’s Customs Bureau shows that total meat and offal imports hit a record high of 556,276 MT in May, up 45 percent from 383,639 MT in May 2018.This was driven by the ongoing impact of African swine fev...
Biodiesel Tax Credit and RFS Volumes with Some Surprises
The House Ways and Means Committee completed action on a tax extender package last Thursday night. It includes a three-year extension of the $1/gallon tax credit for biodiesel blending that matches the language already introduced in the Senate, meaning this will probably move through a House-Se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Ethanol Margins Squeezed Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Ethanol production ended May at a pace of 1.044 million barrels per day (bpd), which was the lowest level in a month after the buildup for the summer driving season. However, it also left stocks at their second highest level on record for that month. Crude oil stocks increased early in May and...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises as Feed Prices Trend Upward Strong downstream demand for soymeal continued last week. Meanwhile, soybean crushers have gradually raised output to meet market needs. As a result, China’s nationwide soymeal inventory rose 28,100 MT (+4.6 percent) last week t...
Scaled-Back RIN Reforms and Conflicting EPA Outlook on E15 Impact
As expected, last Friday the EPA published its final rule to allow year-round E15 sales. That rule included a much scaled-down proposal regarding the trading and holding of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which the agency said is a way to increases transparency to deter price manipulat...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Ag Review - May 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soy complex and biofuels sectors, and an assessment of certain global trade policies. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Slightly as Feed Demand Holds Steady China’s soymeal market appears to have found a bottom at the start of May. Feed demand, driven by the poultry and aquaculture sectors, has pushed both cash and future prices gradually upward since the first week of this...
Key EPA Biofuel Regulatory Decision Timeline
The EPA’s proposed rule on year-round E15 use is presently at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The administration has promised to have it in place by 1 June, which is Saturday. Therefore, the market should expect the rule this week. As WPI has previously noted, the new rul...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Recovers Ground on Improved Feed Demand With feed demand from poultry and aquaculture continuing to expand on the backs of China’s beleaguered hog industry, soymeal sales have begun to rise again. As of 17 May 2019, China’s estimated soymeal inventory stoo...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset
The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is when it is restricted under current regulations. An agency spokeswoman confirmed on 15 May that “EPA will finalize the rule before the...
Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?
There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based diesel. The distinctions between the fuels are subtle but important. In fact, it’s important enough that the U.S. Energy Information...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
2020 Proposed RFS Volumes Up Slightly
Last week the EPA sent its proposed rule on 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for final review. The proposal provides for modest increases in biofuel volumes. Under the RFS, conventional ethanol is capped...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Ethanol Overview
The U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) today released the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which maintains its estimate of ethanol use in 2019 at 14.53 billion gallons but trims the forecast for 2020 about 0.4 percent to 14.55 billion gallons (949,000 barrels/day). On a marketing...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war with the U.S., China launched a series of stimulative measures at the end of 2018. After a tepid January and February, the country’s econ...
Ethanol Growth Faces Mixed Bag of RFS Regulations
According to data released late last week, the EPA has granted one additional small refinery exemption (SRE) for 2017 and received three more SRE requests for 2018 since the last reported update (see table below for current counts). The additional SRE for 2017 was from a very small refinery as...
Shrinking Future of the RFS
Sometime in the next six to eight weeks, the EPA will propose the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2020 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The statutory volumes will then be prescribed for only the two following years (2021 and 2022), and the EPA will thereafter have greater discret...
EIA Forecasts on Biofuels
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this week. The agency trimmed back both production and consumption projections for biodiesel. On the production side, EIA cut its forecast for 2019 by 7 percent and for 2020 by 9 percent versu...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course as Feed Demand Improves Modest improvements in feed demand last week coupled with a drop in imported soybean stocks resulted in China’s estimated soymeal inventory declining yet again to a total 608,400 MT as of 4 April 2019, down 23,800 MT (-3.8...
Wet Weather Impacting Ethanol
Ethanol producers were already dealing with building inventories, lower blending rates and cheaper crude oil (U.S. crude production was up 17 percent in 2018). Now the recent flooding has impacted 10-15 percent of ethanol production in Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota. The biggest impact has bee...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; EU to Face Retaliation; Maple Leaf Foods;, French Rapeseed
Relatively Few Significant Changes to Soy Sector in WASDE USDA made very few changes to its supply and distribution tables for the soy sector in the April WASDE, but among the few significant revisions to its estimates were the following: - Brazil’s 2018 soybean crop was raised from 120.0...
Politics of the Biodiesel Tax Credit
With the second quarter of 2019 underway, the House is moving toward a restoration of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC), which expired 31 December 2017. A bill, co-sponsored by a bipartisan group of legislators, was introduced in that chamber to implement the credit through 2019 and extend it retr...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Ag Review - March 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean crush and U.S. biofuels industry, and an assessment of certain global trade policies. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Average Live Pig Price Soared 12 Percent Through Mid-March With all the chaos surrounding African swine fever (ASF), the publishing of weekly price data from 500 farm markets across China by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) appears to be unnecessarily...
Flooding Gives Bump to Ethanol, but for How Long?
The weather markets have hit ethanol, providing some welcomed price relief. The flooding in the Corn Belt has interrupted shipping/delivery and given a bump to ethanol prices, especially on the West Coast. Right now, producer margins are improved, and blender margins are tighter. Gasoline price...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
China In-Country Analysis
Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now managed to update its reports regarding U.S. agricultural exports through the end of 2018. A look at the total figures reveal some surprising find...
Chinese Trade Soap Opera and Markets
Having commented so often about U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing negotiations, we fear we risk boring clients. However, the trade negotiations are reminiscent of the traditional “soap operas” on daytime television in that their stories never end. Every time one crisis is r...
More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted
The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the queue for that year as of 1 March from seven to two. This brings the total number of exemptions to 9.4 percent of the 19.28 billion gallons...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed; Annual Ethanol Use Down
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed The EPA released its proposed waiver for year-round E15 use today. As previously reported (click here), it will now be on a tight approval deadline before the summer driving season starts. Given the risk of regulatory uncertainty and needed infrastructure...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
E15; Biodiesel Duties; The Debt Limit
E15 and SREs Yesterday the EPA submitted its proposal for year-round E15 use to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for sign-off. As noted here on Friday, a quick timeline for approval could be 75 days, which is slightly less than the number of days before the 1 June start of the su...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances
There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In testimony before the House Ag Committee, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue suggested that EPA was unlikely to finish the waiver for year-round E15 use...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales, Sinograin Reserve Sales; Canada’s Soy Sales; French Biodiesel Strike
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s release of the USDA weekly export sales report for the week ending 21 February indicated unexpectedly large sales of U.S. soybeans, particularly to China. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were at the low end of analysts’ estimates, but soymeal exp...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...
EIA Aims to Improve Biofuel Data to Reflect the Current Market, Especially Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has proposed revamping its data collection surveys and reporting process on fuel supplies, production, distribution and inputs. It outlined those plans in a late December notice and closed the request-for-comments period yesterday. Given the evol...
Market Commentary
In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today’s trading with wheat posting solid gains. The markets remain supported/optimistic based on (apparently) improving trade relations betw...
Market Commentary
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson presented the 2019 projections for grains, oilseeds, planted area and farm income. USDA foresees net farm...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Lower Food Prices Push Inflation Down in January With China’s major holiday occurring just around the corner in February, the country typically experiences a run-up in consumer prices during January as a result of increased food expenditures. This is particularly true of fres...
Ethanol Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. Those projections offer a glimmer of hope that the industry can start to chip away at the growing stocks of fuel. The ethanol consumption forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were rais...
Oilseed Highlights: Indonesia’s Biodiesel; Michigan Soy Processor; China’s Aquaculture; Brazilian Soy
Indonesian President Promises to Move to B-100 if Reelected Indonesian President Joko Widodo said in a debate that if reelected, he wants to move from requiring the blending of 20 percent biodiesel made from palm oil with diesel to 100 percent. He said that doing so would create a market for ab...
Trade Winds Blowing
Despite being shortened by the Presidents Day holiday, this should be an interesting week with another “data dump” featured on 22 February. First, USDA/FAS will finally get current with its weekly export sales reports, including the balance of that data delayed by the government shu...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Finnish Supply Destruction; Slaying the Nonsense; “Other” Wins/Worst Idea
Finnish Supply Destruction Commodity supply and demand forecasts almost uniformly forecast too much of the former and not enough of the latter. A similar situation in the past gave birth to the biofuels policy that turns agricultural commodities into transportation fuel. Unfortunately, USDA als...
Market Commentary
Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Today, though, there was a generally optimistic feeling about both that helped push the soybean and corn markets higher. The next round of trade...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein
U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be shipped in the current marketing year. This brought total reported soybean sales to China since its delegation last visited Washington to 3.80...
Market Commentary
Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an example of his aggressive trade policies but did not mention its recent soybean purchases. He also asked Congress to approve the USMCA trade a...
Market Commentary
Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the February WASDE, are a month late has a great deal to do with it. The last WASDE before the government shutdown came out on 11 December, and mu...
Musings about Chinese Trade
This morning USDA announced a sale of 2.603 MMT of soybeans to China for 2018/19, part of the second tranche of 5 MMT that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu promised would be purchased as a negotiating “reward” when he and his group met with President Trump at the White House on 31 January...
EPA Focus on RFS Rules
With the federal government now fully reopened (at least until 15 February) and the EPA likely to soon have a full-time administrator (the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee confirmation hearing on Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler is 5 February), there are two important rulemaking...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; China Soy Imports; Argentine Biodiesel; Russia-Brazil Soy Trade; South American Soy Crops
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights – Finally Today USDA issued its first export sales report in over a month, but only the week ending 20 December was covered (all data discussed below pertains to that week). As noted in yesterday’s Market Commentary, the normal publication schedule w...
Market Commentary
The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingly competitive. Some growth in export sales volumes was likely during that period, and traders have been anxious for the reports to resume. H...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybean Demand; EU Approves U.S. Soy; Global Feed; U.S. Soy Inspections
Brazil’s Soybean Demand in CY 2018 Last week Oil World published soybean usage data for Brazil in CY 2018, which showed it consumed or exported more than it produced that year. This suggests either that crop was larger than estimated, or the country had more available stocks on 1 January...
Ethanol Outlook
For the first three weeks of 2019, ethanol production dropped to 1.027 million barrels/day from 1.046 million barrels/day for Q4 2018 and was well below year-ago levels. For reference, the current pace of production would result in a total 15.75 billion gallons for the year, down from more than...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy futures struggled to find volume and price direction amid the continued lack of inputs from USDA and with little else to lead them. Trading volume today can best be described as awful. Prices moved slightly lower, mostly as a result of neglect, and remained range-bound during...
Federal Reserve Report on Economic Conditions in the Regional Ag Sectors
The Federal Reserve Banks issued the first Beige Book for 2019 on 16 January. The report is published eight times per year (the previous release was on 5 December 2018, and the next will be in March). Each bank gathers anecdotal information on the current economic conditions in its district by...
U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller
As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Oilseed Highlights: Malaysian Biodiesel; Soymeal and DDGS; Argentine Soy Crushers; Pakistan and Cargill
Malaysia to Double Use of Palm-Based Biodiesel The glut and low prices of palm oil have caused the government of Malaysia to double the blending requirement for biodiesel with diesel from the current 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020, according to Minister of Primary Industries Teresa Kok. Oil W...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
EPA Administrator Confirmation Hearing and Biofuel Outlook
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) will hold a confirmation hearing tomorrow for Andrew Wheeler, nominated last week by President Trump to be the EPA administrator. He has been the acting in that position since July and is the former deputy administrator. Wheeler was...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Flying Blind
As the partial U.S. government shutdown has moved into its third week with no end in sight, the nation’s press is increasingly focused on the ripple affect it is having on various sectors of the U.S. economy. An example is a recent article in the Washington Post that discussed how the lac...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.185/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, down $0.6 fr...
Market Commentary
Today’s CME closing grain market board was very unusual in the array of tiny price changes compared with that of yesterday. MGEX wheat had the biggest gains, finishing up 2.5-3 cents. Every other change was 1 cent or less except for a 1.25 cent gain for corn and Chicago wheat. While this...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Ag Review - December 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. grain and soybean sectors, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mixed overnight, having traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. As the early morning trading recess approached, wheat prices edged lower. However, soybean prices staying around the prior close in expectation that new large sales to China would be reported by US...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Middle East/North Africa (MENA) buyers of Ukraine’s wheat and corn are very concerned about the situation that has developed between that country and Russia in the Kerch Strait that abuts Crimea. While Russia says that the strait is oper...
Farm Bill and Ethanol in Congress’s Closing Stretch
The final draft of the 2018 Farm Bill conference agreement is likely to be released tomorrow, and a final vote could take place as soon as Wednesday (12 December). Focus will be centered on the following key items and whether the final text delivers the anticipated changes: Margin Protection P...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India Oil Meal Exports Up Oil meal exports of 2.043 MMT for April-November were almost 10 percent higher versus 1.855 MMT for the same period last year. October 2018 was the start of the soymeal season, and nearly 0.367 MMT were exported in the two-month period since then, up 32.73 percen...
A Look at the U.S.-Chinese “Agreement”
In terms of publicity, the biggest news coming out of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires late last week had nothing to do with that gathering. Instead, it concerned the dinner meeting between President Trump, President Xi and groups of advisors that resulted in the announcement of a temporary truc...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. China-Trade Truce Impact Unclear; Brazil’s Huge Soy Crop; Duties on Argentine Biodiesel Imports
U.S.-China Trade Truce’s Impact on Soybeans Far from Clear Now that there is a 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and South American soybean sectors along with Chinese soybean importers are all trying to determine how they will be affected. President Trump has indicat...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
High Octane Legislative Proposal
A pair of Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives used the day before Thanksgiving to release a new proposal for Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) reform that would replace the annual mandated volumes with a new standard for high octane finished motor fuel. Those two are Representative...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Odds and Ends
With the corn/soybean harvests in their final stage and the normal slowdown of a holiday week, the current markets may not generate much that deserves analysis. There is some history of significant short-term price action on the Friday following the Thanksgiving Day market closure. For whatever...
Ethanol Exports Can’t Draw Down Stocks
Ethanol exports are on track to set a record in 2018 and will likely top 1.6 billion gallons, approximately 10 percent of all production. However, robust sales have not been able to hold off the building of stocks due to the pace of production. Those stocks reached 23,514 barrels for the week e...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soybean Exports; U.S. Soybean Inspections; Argentine Biodiesel
European Rapeseed Plantings Down Sharply The head of the French Federation of Oilseed and Protein Crop Producers (FOP) indicated last week that the country’s winter rapeseed plantings will likely decrease 30-35 percent from last year due to the lack of rain this fall. While that suggests...
2019 Biofuel Volumes Being Finalized
The final 2019 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The statute requires that the volumes be published by 30 November. The EPA submitted its draft of the final rule to OMB on 31 October and pu...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Blockage; Brazil and Biodiesel; U.S. Export Sales and Soy Crush
China Blocking Discharge of U.S. Soybean Cargoes When China imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans on 6 July, it was assumed that they could still be imported if the duty was paid. However, that appears to not be the case as reports indicate China has prevented the discharge o...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Ethanol: Slow Bureaucracy and Growing Stocks
The EPA has revealed its rule-making timeline regarding a waiver for year-round consumption of E15, and the proposed rule is targeted for February. After comments are received and reviewed, the planned deadline for the final rule is May. The ethanol industry has expressed frustration with this...
Fundamentally Fair Values
Futures markets are all about anticipating the direction that prices for the underlying instrument will take at certain specific points of time in the future, and each has spawned its own cottage industry of analysts who perform that task. Price forecasting can be for periods as near as 30-60 d...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume seemed slightly higher than has been usual recently, but price action for grain and soy futures markets was muted nevertheless. Corn prices held around unchanged, and wheat was fractionally lower. Most of the action occurred in the soy complex as overnight selling pushe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade volume was limited as the market awaited release of USDA’s October WASDE. Corn and wheat were a penny or so lower with soybeans down 4-5 cents, which all tracked with expectations of a bearish report. When the report came out at noon (EDT) today, the immediate conclusion w...
Ethanol Fundamentals and E15 Policy Process
Ethanol stocks, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), are at their highest level since March, and they are also up 8.8 percent versus the same time last year and 3.6 percent above the previous week’s total.. Despite the stock build, weekly ethanol production is do...
Market Commentary
Tuesday’s rumors had the Russian government taking steps to slow the frantic pace of wheat exports. Today it became clear that it did act but not in a way that was expected. The government apparently has closed about 30 interior grain elevators in Rostov and Krasnodar for three months. Th...
E15 Announcement and Perhaps More Next Week
President Trump is scheduled to be in Council Bluffs, Iowa next week (9 October), and he has hinted that he’ll unveil the administration’s plans to approve year-round sales of E15 at that time. This is not the first time that expectations on the issue have been set, evidenced by the...
Political and Strategic Analysis; Manufactured Food Poisoning; Biofuel Bargain
Political and Strategic Analysis Prime Minister Shinzō Abe successfully rebuffed President Donald Trump on bilateral trade negotiations for two years, but the threat of auto tariffs forced his hand. He may still be able to drag out the final outcome of what was agreed to in New York this week,...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures featured higher prices and modest volume. Soybeans were the leader with the November contract up about 7.5 cents. The grains were higher but more timidly so. Chicago wheat was up about 4 cents, and corn’s gains were limited to fractions. Trading vo...
Friday’s USDA Reports
USDA will release its annual end-of-September batch of reports on Friday, 28 September. Included will be U.S. quarterly stocks as of 1 September, final production estimates for U.S. spring wheat, durum, barley and oats, and also the agency’s first estimate of winter wheat planted acreage...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The Closing Bell Wrap-Up is back after covering for WPI’s Bob Kohlmeyer last week. And what a week it was. The WASDE created a bearish selling party while the cattle and hog markets headed the opposite direction in a hurricane-fueled rally. Wall Street is higher as of this writing w...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s...
It’s E15 Season Again
Yesterday was 16 September, which means that retailers can sell E15 again. Because of the evaporative volatility, it is not sold during the period of 1 June-15 September. However, the Trump administration is looking at granting a waiver for year-round sales, which could come prior to the Novemb...
RFS Issues Ahead
The EPA is busy with renewable fuel issues. It is reviewing comments on the proposed volume obligations for 2019, which will be finalized by 30 November, and considering a year-round waiver for E15 that it is expected to propose, perhaps before the 2018 elections. The agency is also dealing wit...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Looking at RFS Waiver Reallocation
One of the most controversial EPA actions over the past year has been the granting of hardship waivers for small refiners. Biofuel groups have complained that the waivers have been a de facto reduction in the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), which is accurate, and they pressed hard prior to...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade continued to be light in volume and devoid of excitement overnight with limited price movement. This dull pattern carried over to the day session as well. Wheat futures moved lower during the day, a response to ongoing fund liquidation, the lack of export demand, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Truck Rates; Global Biodiesel Output; U.S. Soy Yield Forecast
Brazilian Farmers Squeezed by Higher Truck Freight Rates Farmers in Brazil’s Cerrados region have long been burdened by the high cost of shipping their soybeans to ports, mostly on trucks. However, they ae now being squeezed by new mandatory and much higher truck freight rates, which the...
Labor Day: Good News, Bad News for Ethanol Demand
A snapshot of the fuel market shows what could be the classic “good news, bad news” scenario for ethanol demand. The good news is that it’s Labor Day weekend and increased driving ratchets up motor fuel demand. Gasoline prices are higher as well, which increases blending margi...
Market Commentary
In recent years, the last week of August and/or the first week of September have been the best bets for the timing of seasonal lows for CME grain and soy futures prices. The reason for this is that for the last several years, prospects for very large harvests of corn and soybeans about to get u...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
Market Commentary
USDA’s aid package for farmers, whose income prospects have been impacted by the administration’s use of higher tariffs as trade policy, is reportedly now being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and it should be ready for unveiling on 24 August. Unconfirmed repo...
Comments Submitted to the EPA on the RFS
The comment period for the 2019 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume obligations closed on 17 August. There were more than 290,000 comments filed. Some highlights from major stakeholders included the following: The American Petroleum Institute (API) called for Congress to sunset the RFS progra...
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Ethanol More Expensive to Blenders, but Fuel Demand a Record
Things are bearish for ethanol producers despite a strong gasoline market. Ethanol margins are being squeezed to their lowest point in about six months, mostly on the decrease in ethanol prices. However, corn prices ranging above last year are contributing to the pressure. Renewable Identificat...
WASDE Ethanol Margin Forecast and EIA Projections
Ethanol production nameplate capacity has exceeded 16 billion gallons, growing more than 700 million gallons or 5 percent from 2017 to 2018. The increase in the U.S. Energy Information Administration‘s (EIA’s) official capacity estimate has been due to expansions in plant capacity a...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidation of presumably profitable long positions. New short positions just ahead of Friday’s WASDE would require that the sellers have stron...
EPA Report Five Years Late, Implications Moving Forward
On 29 June, the EPA’s Office of Research and Development issued the Second Triennial Report to Congress on Biofuels and the Environment. The report reviews existing peer reviews science on the environmental impact of biofuels. The first report was issued in 2011 and included data through...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big soybean rally was sponsored by a press report indicating the possibility that the U.S. and China might resume a formal discussion on the current trade conflict. Overnight price action suggested that the rally was overdone as soybean futures gave back more than one-third of...
Short- and Long-Term Trends in Soyoil and Biodiesel
On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported May biodiesel production of 149 million gallons, 9 million gallon above April and up 13 million gallons versus May 2017. The January-May 2018 total of 686 million gallons was 120 million gallons higher than the first five mon...
E15 and Small Refinery Waivers Still Unsettled
In Iowa yesterday, President Trump said the administration is “very close” to granting a year-round waiver for E15 usage. This confirms what he said in early April when asked about ethanol from the White House press pool. He had responded, “We're going to raise it up to 15 per...
Ag Review - July 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...
Market Commentary
After featuring active trade and higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, grain and soybean markets paused to catch their breath today. Volume was restrained, and limited price action kept values near Tuesday’s closes. Following those rare occasions during the past few months when markets ral...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Policy Changes May Not Ease Pressure on Sugar Sector Immediately Changes in ethanol prices, including that of B-Heavy molasses as an input for making the fuel, do not mean that India will become self-sufficient in supplies and fulfil the demand of the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP). Fur...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
E15’s Rube Goldberg Regulations
Last Friday, 19 April, the EPA issued an emergency waiver for E15 to be sold through the summer driving season. The topline takeaway of that action is positive for the ethanol sector, but the practicality of implementing the new rule is more complex. Indeed, the structure of the Cle...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Biofuel Round-Up
E15: It is 9 April; by 1 May terminals that blend gasoline with ethanol need to be in compliance with summer-grade gasoline specifications that are effective on 1 June. The ethanol industry has pressed EPA for another emergency waiver for year-round E15 use in the summer of 2024. EPA did approv...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was unsurprising in that managed money funds were net sellers through Tuesday’s data reporting period, which obviously coincided with the new contract lows in the grain markets. Funds were aggressive net sellers in corn, SRW wheat, and soyoil but were more cautious...
A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels
At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the SRW wheat contract. Equally unsurprising was the net buying by managed money traders in soymeal and soyoil as they’ve largely whittled...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Rhetoric Meets Reality; Miscalculating Renewables; TTC and AI
Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne liked that angle and similarly blamed his country’s retailers for food inflation. Major retailer Carrefour then blamed suppli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Small Refinery Exemptions Under the RFS Back in the Spotlight
A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A court decision in the 5th District Circuit Court brought that topic back to the forefront, and will add more complexity, volatility, and unce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Renewable Diesel as “Regional Diesel”
In 2022, renewable diesel (RD) utilization (based on product supplied) surpassed biodiesel (BD) use. For Q1 of 2023, RD has extended the gap. This is not surprising given the rapid expansion of RD capacity in the past couple of years. What also was expected, but perhaps still slightly surprisi...
EPA Effectively Clears the Board of Pending SREs, Projects Not Approving Future Petitions
The EPA announced on Friday that it denied 26 requests for “small refinery exemptions” (SREs) over the periods of 2016-2018 and 2021-2023. There are still two SRE petitions pending for the 2018 compliance year. SRE’s have been a contentious issue for several years. SREs...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Will EPA Flip Off the Switch for Electric Vehicles Under the RFS?
EPA is facing a 14 June deadline to finish the 2023-2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The date was set by consent decree with the courts. Recall, the proposed RVOs released in November 2022 included electric vehicles (EVs) as part of the overall vo...
EPA’s E15 Waiver for 2023 in Effect Today
On 28 April, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted a waiver for the use of E15 during the 2023 summer driving season, which is 1 June - 15 September. This is under the same regulatory authority as was used in 2022 to address an emergency fuel situation. The Clean Air Ac...
Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight
The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feature more favorable planting conditions for most of the Midwest and Northern Plains in the next few weeks, which helped pressure corn, soybea...
Long Term Energy Outlook: Exporting Ethanol, Importing Biomass Based Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023 – that report is the Department of Energy’s equivalent to USDA’s long term baseline projection. The USDA’s report forecasts out to 2032, while the AEO forecasts to...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA issued a one-year emergency waiver to allow year-round E15 in part to reduce retail gasoline prices in response to supply chain disruptions, t...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages long, and away from the top line summary, there are a few other bits of information worth taking a second look at and putting into context w...
Proposed RVOs: Canola Oil and Electric Vehicles are the Winners
The EPA released the proposed required volume obligations for 2023 through 2025 yesterday. Below is a summary of the proposed volumes by category. The top takeaways: In a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewable die...
American Petroleum Institute Backs Year-Round E15
The American Petroleum Institute (AP), the association of oil drilling, refining, and natural gas producing companies, joined this week in signing a letter to Congress backing a move to grant year-round use of E15. Other signatories to the letter included the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), G...
2023 Biofuel RVOs Delayed from Tomorrow Release
The EPA’s proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for 2023 will not be released tomorrow as was previously expected under the terms of a consent decree, which originally set a date of 16 September. That was later agreed by both parties to be extended to 16 November. Those parties inclu...
King and Queen Pillage the Village
King corn is losing a battle with Queen soybeans, and this has activated the politicians for another round of support. Renewable diesel is projected to increase five-fold from 1 billion to 5 billion gallons by 2026. Almost $2.6 billion is being invested in increased soybean crush capacity to me...
Future of the RFS 2023 and Beyond
2023 marks a major shift in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). From the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act until this year, the annual required volume obligations (RVOs) under the RFS were set by statute; that changes in 2023, and so could the mix of renewable fuels – or at least t...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decree from EPA with the biofuels association Growth Energy who filed a complaint in April over EPA’s failure to promulgate a rule establi...
60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch
In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007 with the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) which expanded those categories. The bottom line is that renewable fuels were schedule...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
EPA’s Final RVO Rule
As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels blending levels for 2021 (retroactively) and 2022 (six months late, and five months into the compliance year). Following is the br...
No 1970’s Analog
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish a so-called soft-landing of the economy back down to a low inflation, modest growth, low unemployment scenario. An increasing number of voices are signaling their skepticism that this can be accomplished. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even concedes...
Dwindling Diesel Stocks, Increasing Demand
Add diesel fuel supplies to market anxieties over shortages and high prices. Diesel hit all-time record prices this week. Both gasoline and diesel rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but in the last two weeks, diesel prices spiked again. And the medium-term outlook remains bu...
Eight State Plan for E15 Equivalent to Adding One Large Ethanol Mill
In April, the Biden Administration’s EPA announced that it would provide a temporary waiver for year-round E15 (see WPI’s article about the immediate market reaction here, and a breakdown of the actual impact here). In the end, the waiver adds about 107 days of more demand for E15 i...
Ethanol Sobriety Check
Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act’s requirements. Ethanol makes sense as an octane booster but less so as a gasoline substitute. Blending at the E15 level is already allow...
Ag Policy Options Being Consider Regarding Russia/Ukraine Situation
As is typical when there is a crisis – from foreign policy issues, to the China trade situation, to animal disease, to COVID, and more – the market gets bombarded with rumors, leaks and speculation about potential emergency policy actions which may – or may not – be take...
Trade Policy Confusion; Energy Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion In its annual report to Congress yesterday on trade relations with China, USTR asserted that, “China has a poor record when it comes to complying with WTO rules” and suggested the Biden Administration is looking for a new strategy to address the Middle Kingdom...
E15 versus EVs
As we wrote just over one year ago, on 1 February 2021, … the general trend of fuel policy is clearly shifting the struggle from how much of the tank is filled with gasoline versus biofuel to a struggle between liquid fuel and alternatives. … Whether the petroleum and biofuels ind...
RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook
Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...
EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade
On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December. The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes. EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...
Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines
Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (RVOs) from EPA. We noted that Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, informed EPA via a 2 November letter of its intent to file suit if...
SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish
President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be in the form of a 32-million-barrel exchange solicitation to be open for bids tomorrow and the accelerating of 18 million-barrel to be sold w...
Where’s the RVO?
The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rural America.” Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, mentioned in her testimony that “We are also a...
October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA
Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after months of rallies and needed to “cool off”. December Paris milling wheat futures were down €3/MT today and pulled back fro...
Bullish Ethanol Production
USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2020, starting the marketing year off in the right direction. Moreover, ethanol production for the week ending 22 October hit 1.106 million b...
Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion
Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that this spending category has been relatively flat for many years. This ignores that fact that private spending on agricultural R&D has bee...
Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO
Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 meeting begins at the end of October in Glasgow. Leaders gathered there will likely review the UN Environment Program’s released Product...
High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs. First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...
Ongoing Biofuel Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels only varies based on assumptions about economic growth and petroleum prices. This projection does...
Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil
After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the August exports were still down about 17 percent from last year and from the previous five-year average for the month. Year-to-date exports (th...
Ag Review - September 2021
For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economics and clients’ needs, this will be our last edition. We will continue to include historical analysis with our successful daily Ag Per...
Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”
There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the attention of industry supporters on Capitol Hill, especially Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). There have been rumors for months that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $12.85/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?
The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and the “potential for a fully zero-carbon aviation sector by 2050.” That would be 3 billion gallons annual use by 2030, and potent...
Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?
The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Friday, the proposal was sent from EPA for review last Thursday. What is in the proposal is still a mystery, however. That differs from last yea...
RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020
We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question was when? We now know the answer: yesterday. There has been...
Biofuel Falters
U.S. biofuel makers are disappointed that U.S. EPA is not more aggressively pushing fuel blending, but their plight is consistent with the pandemic related faltering in global biofuel production. The International Energy Agency (EIA) says that 10 percent annual increases are needed in global bi...
Ball of Confusion: Waiting on RFS Volumes
The EPA will be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question is: when? As of this morning, there is no record of the proposal being sent to OMB for f...
PM Post - Bears Own the Day
THE OPEN Nov beans: 18 lower Dec meal: 4.00 lower Dec soyoil: 96 pts lower Dec corn: 9 lower Dec wheat: 12 lower The markets opened as expected but weaker outside markets, bearish Pro Farmer Crop tour comments, and rains forecasted for the weekend took a toll on th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...
Short Term Energy Outlook: Bullish Biodiesel
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO); the report projects biodiesel production for 2021 to remain at the same level as 2020, which unlike ethanol, was up from 2019. For 2022, biodiesel production is forecast to increase 15 percent over...
GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?
GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...
Long Term Ethanol Question: Electric Vehicles – Fact or Fantasy?
Last week, President Biden issued an executive order as part of his “Build Back Better” initiative that calls for targeting all vehicle sales to reach 50 percent electric vehicles by 2030. Specifically, setting the goal of “half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions...
Ag Review - July 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, competition in the oilseeds market, the outlook of the meat industry, policies surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standards under the Biden Admin...
E15 Legislation Proposed
As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales, and we noted that “biofuels groups have said that “every legal, regulatory and legislative option&...
Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15
The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EPA decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales. This comes on the heels of the Supreme Court ruling on the extension of SRE waivers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; DC Court Rules Against E15; Wheat Decouples from Corn
Note: The CBOT/CME markets are closed Monday, 5 July 2021 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. CBOT trade was expectedly quiet heading into the long U.S. holiday weekend and ended mixed for the day. Corn settled lower with profit taking and more renewable fuels policy drama while soybea...
Ag Review - June 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...
Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps
As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA’s granting of small refinery exemptions (SREs) to meet the renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes. Recall that in January 2020, the 10...
Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending
The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcoming. As of today, however, OMB does not have the proposal listed on its dashboard of regulations under review. The Administration...
RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?
On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. But Friday was also the day that the Administration released its regulatory agenda, which included the following regarding the RFS and biofuel...
RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers
When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political base constituencies, environmentalists and labor. The groups are different than they were for the Trump Administration - agriculture and petrol...
Ag Review - May 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding market demand for ethanol, pork, and poultry, as well as future issues impacting the agriculture sector and the politics surrounding them. You’ll a...
2021 and 2022 RVOs Could be Kept at 2020 Levels
The EPA is floating a trial balloon of maintaining the 2020 RVOs for 2021 and 2022. In April, a group of Senators urged EPA to add 500 million gallons to the ethanol RVO to amend for the 2016 court case that ruled the EPA improperly waived that amount, and to “increase biodiesel, advanced...
Ethanol Price Impact
The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in recovery mode as transportation fuel demand recovers from COVID restrictions that had sent ethanol values last year to a 10-year record low of...
Ethanol Ripple Effects
Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation fuel may force more Brazilian sugar into ethanol production rather than food. The sugar market is very tight on reduced output. U.S. ethano...
Colonial Pipeline Cyber Attack and Biofuels
On Friday, the Colonial Pipeline, which is the largest refined product pipeline in the U.S., running 5,500 miles from Texas to New Jersey, was attacked by ransomware, assumed to be launched by hackers in Russia. The pipeline was forced to close. The company is slowly reopening lateral pipelines...
Ethanol Exports and Domestic Production Rebound
Ethanol exports in March were 133 million gallons and more than a third of that went to China. The 48.3 million gallons exported to China is the second highest monthly total on record, just 8,278 gallons below April 2016. Recall that in 2016, China was the fastest growing market for U.S...
Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics
Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...
RFS Waivers and RINs Prices
On 22 February, we noted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear a challenge to the 10th District Court’s ruling on small refinery exemptions (SREs). In January, the Department of Justice, acting as counsel for the EPA, had requested that the Supreme Court not hear the case and instead...
New EPA Administrator Resetting the RFS Clock
The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to be Administrator of the U.S. EPA this week by a vote of 66-34. Since 2017, Regan has been Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and previously he worked at EPA in the air office. That experience will come in handy as he has to...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; South America Soy; Renewable Diesel
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated there was a rebound in soybean export sales in the week ending 25 February. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also increased last week compared to the previous week. Net soybean export sales last week totaled 334,000 MT for...
Ethanol Corn Use and Outlook
USDA released the January Grain Crushings report yesterday; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 11 percent from January 2020, and down 6 percent from January 2019. Dry mill production of DDGS was 1.7534 MMT during January 2021, 90 percent of last year and 98 percent of December. On the ye...
Ag Review - February 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at policy possibilities in the year ahead, the impact of government spending, world grain stocks, pork demand, climate change, international market analysis and much more. ...
EPA Adopting 10th District Ruling on SREs
The U.S. EPA announced a major change in the agency’s perspective on granting small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the renewable fuel standard. In short, EPA will apply the ruling of the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on granting SREs. Recall that in January...
Electric Vehicles, Political Distrust and Ethanol Demand
Last week, General Motors announced that in an effort to lower its emissions its goal will be to produce 40 percent of its car and light duty vehicles as electric powered. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFS) commented through a statement from CEO Geoff Cooper. I would encourage people to take...
COVID Impact on Ethanol Triggered Thinking on Long Term Ethanol Demand
The current renewable fuel standard (RFS) went into place in 2008 after the legislation was passed in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA); that bill raised the biofuel obligations from the original 2005 Energy Policy Act’s initial RFS. Of course, COVID in 2020 had a major...
Ag Review - December 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at global food supplies, the direction of the diesel market, Russia’s crop production, the future of agribusiness under the new Biden Administration, an analysis of market...
Heads Up: 2021 RVO for Biofuels is Coming
We previously reported that the Trump Administration EPA would likely “punt” on issuing the 2021 required volume obligations (RVOs) rule and leave it to the incoming Biden EPA. Specifically, we speculated that “a retroactive 2021 RVO would be issued next spring/summer” b...
Diesel Market Slowly Returning to Balance
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, at the end of November, U.S. distillate inventories fell to 145.8 million barrels, which was back within the previous five-year (2015–19) range for the first time since 8 May. Diesel demand dropped to its low the most in June and fu...
Ag Review - November 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at the global and local impacts of the recent U.S. election, President-Elect Biden’s trade agenda, fiscal policy and the U.S. federal budget, the challenges of long-term f...
Thanksgiving Week Fuel Demand and Budget Negotiations
Thanksgiving week is typically the biggest travel week of the year, but recent COVID lockdowns following a new spike in cases lowered travel this year. Although air travel was up more than expected last weekend, auto travel was down. Last week was the lowest price for gasoline the week before T...
Biden EPA Could Inherit an Obama-Biden Era RFS Court Ruling
With controversy over small refinery exemptions (SREs), election year political strategies, and COVID, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) never issued the required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 as required under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The statutory deadline is one week fr...
COVID Spike and Ethanol Outlook
The final required volume obligations (RVOs) for 2021 biofuel blending mandates is due in 17 days; that is a statutory requirement (although missed more than met since 2007 when it was implemented). However, not only has it not been issued, but the proposed rule has also yet to be published by...
Thinking About the Coming Supply of Brazilian DDGS
Back in 2013, under the U.S. sugar program, sugar refiners and processors were headed toward forfeiting more than 350,000 MT of sugar under loan, which triggered the Feedstock Flexibility Program (FFP). That program, created in the 2008 farm bill, requires USDA to purchase surplus sugar (techni...
Gasoline and Ethanol Use Forecast Down for 2021
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cutting ethanol, biodiesel, and gasoline use projections for 2021. EIA’s forecast of actual ethanol blending for 2021 is about 13.92 billion gallons, which is 11 percent of the forecast 126...
Ag Review - September 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue reviews notable changes in agriculture trade, the impact of the 2020 U.S. election on agriculture legislation, China’s potential influence on the election, Brazil's ethanol policy an...
New Gasoline Octane Standard Proposed for Higher Ethanol Blends
Last week, Representative Cheri Bustos (D-Illinois) introduced the Next Generation Fuels Act. The legislation would establish a new 98 octane standard for gasoline and would require that octane sources in motor fuel result in at least a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions com...
Biodiesel, Soyoil Holding up to COVID Better Than to EU Tariffs
The EU has extended its countervailing duties (CVDs) on U.S. biodiesel which was set to expire this month. The duties were put in place in 2009, renewed in 2011, and again in 2015. But earlier this month, the European Biodiesel Board petitioned for an extension citing … sufficient eviden...
EPA Moving Down Biofuels’ Policy Checklist
After last week’s EPA announcement on gap year SREs, the agency updated its actions on the SRE waivers, denying more than 50 petitions. There are still 17 left, but those are the petitions that as of July had not been reviewed by the Department of Energy (DOE). All the retroactive petitio...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured soybeans in early trade. Corn benefited from unwinding of prior long soybeans/short corn spreads and additional export sales announcements...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments
As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance to agricultural processing plants in the event of a public health emergency in order to assure the continuation of markets for agricultural...
Market Commentary
It was a technical runup today that will correct lower but there is a Chinese curveball in play. The fundamentals remain weak – look at today’s Export Sales report. And Tuesday’s WASDE will reinforce this viewpoint. But now China is an interesting side play. The Middle Kingdom...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was slow and mixed for most of Tuesday, with a slight uptick in commercial pricing interest supporting corn, soybean, and SRW wheat values. Funds are thought to have been modest net buyers of corn and soybeans. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report highlighted the raw efficiency wit...
Market Commentary
One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on display this afternoon as the CBOT finished lower despite early morning gains. Demand has thinned in recent days amid the modest CBOT rally, a...
Policy Fallout from COVID-19
The Senate will return to session on Monday. Though the House will not return, debate on a fourth COVID-19 relief package will begin. This likely will be the most contentious bill; all of the basics – unemployment, business lending, food and nutrition programs, and farm payments have all...
Corn Market Challenge
We have commented before about the broad negative impact that the worldwide coronavirus pandemic is having on demand for raw materials ranging from copper and energy to renewable commodity crops such as grain, oilseeds and cotton. This situation, along with the strange decision by the Saudis an...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.145/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Ag Review - April 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the economic downturn and its impact on agriculture demand, what happens as a result of the meat packing plant closures from COVID-19, the shipping problems in Latin America from th...
Lower Fuel Use Reignites RFS Fight
As of last week, according to the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), 73 of the nation’s 200 ethanol plants are idled and 70 percent are operating at reduced capacity. This would imply that 57 are still operating at normal output levels. Those plants have seen their gross margins bounce on...
Similar Transatlantic COVID-19 Impacts
According to the latest Short-term Outlook from the European Commission, the agrifood sector on the Continent has been impacted by the economic shock, lockdown measures and uncertainty in similar ways to its American counterpart. Both have suffered less than other sectors of the economy. Mainte...
Details on the New Coronavirus Food Assistance Program
On Friday as part of the daily White House COVID19 briefing, Secretary Perdue announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP). It will come in two parts; the first will be direct payments to producers totaling $19 billion. The second will be a $3 billion commodity purchase progra...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Food security continues to be the primary market driver for Europe and most other regions around the world. Efforts to increase (at least perceived) food security include export restrictions, sales from government stockpiles, and requests for approval of imports from non-tradition...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher with some mild, continued short covering that eventually gave way to more bearish pressure. Position squaring heading into the April WASDE and the three-day weekend was dominant. Corn received a bearish jolt from the weekly EIA ethanol production report while wheat ended...
Drinking the Kool-Aid
U.S. ethanol production is plunging, and producers are demanding a fix. Some sources say that this week was the lowest ethanol output and highest stocks on record going back to 2010. Ethanol advocate and powerful Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is suggesting USDA/CCC funds could be used to stoc...
EIA Foreshadows WASDE on Ethanol
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today. April is the month that includes a forecast of the peak demand summer driving season fuel use, which runs from April through September. Total gasoline use is forecast to be down b...
Plant Closures – Pork, Beef and Ethanol
Tyson announced today that it has suspended operations at its Columbus Junction, IA pork plant. The closure is COVID-19 related for worker health protection after several contracted the virus. The plant has a capacity of about 10,000 head per day. Last week, total slaughter was 2.56...
Crude Oil and Feedlot Rations
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, efforts are afoot to put a safety net under global crude oil prices. President Trump is communicating with Saudi Arabia and Russia to coordinate a détente in their price and production war, and the so-called OPEC-Plus group, which includes OPEC memb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called mixed/lower to start today and it did just that. Corn and the soy complex were subject to fund selling and broke key technical support points while the wheat market strengthened on news of a Russian export quota. The livestock markets are in complete disarray and swung from...
COVID Domino Effect on Feed Rations and More
The COVID19 outbreak is like a pinball bouncing from sector to sector of the economy. In agriculture, for example, with shutdowns in place, transportation energy use is down, which has reduced ethanol demand, which in turn has reduced the production of DDGS, which in turn is creating a new puzz...
Upcoming RVO as Messy as SRE Issue
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $20.09/gallon, its lowest level since February 2002, and actually dipped below $20.00/gallon during trading. This makes a mess for blending economics for biofuel use. But there is a bigger problem – or two. First, the bearish oil p...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened mixed today with corn and soyoil posting new contract lows amid continued short selling. Commercial demand for wheat pulled that commodity higher and brought in buy wheat/sell corn spread trade. Commercial pricing in corn and the soy complex was notable today as bargain buying c...
Less Bad Situation
As pointed out by WPI contributor Jody Lefcourt, this is only the third time since the year 2000 that corn has been below $3.30/bushel. But agricultural commodity prices have thus far only fallen modestly relative to the scale of the current global disease and economic crisis. Moreover, overall...
Liquid Fuels Relief Request
The Renewable Fuels Association yesterday requested “equitable” relief for the “liquid fuel industries” given the coronavirus and the Russian/Saudi crude oil price war. In a statement, RFA noted: While the policy response to turbulence in the energy markets has so...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; Argentine Soy Exports; Crude Oil Collapse; U.S. PNW Soy
Forecast for Brazil’s Soybean Crop Increased Brazil’s crop supply agency (CONAB) this week increased its forecast for the 2020 Brazilian soybean crop. Its latest forecast is for a crop of 124.205 MMT (4.563 million bushels), up from its February forecast of 123.25 MMT (4.528 billion...
Market Commentary
“Pandemic” is the word of the day. The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus COVID19 outbreak an official pandemic today, which brought no comfort to global markets. The disease is keeping markets extremely volatile and the potential for governments to make economically...
Biofuels Waiting on EPA’s Decision on SREs
Last Thursday at a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the EPA Administrator said that a decision on how EPA would review and grant small refinery exemptions (SREs) would come within “days, not weeks.” The clock is ticking. The review is being driven by a decision of...
Biofuels: SREs and Renewable Diesel Trends
The RINs market reacted to a news story that EPA was planning on being stingy with future small refinery exemptions (SREs). That speculation was addressed by Administrator Wheeler at a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing yesterday. Wheeler said no decisions have been made about the SRE...
China's Tariff Reductions
China announced this morning a list of 696 U.S. products for which importers may apply for a tariff exemption. Importers must apply for the exemption by 2 March, with a particular volume of imports specified in the application. Import volumes above the applied for amount will be subject to the...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened on a strong note and moved higher for most of the day with the markets posting a mini rally following yesterday’s day of depressed trading. Wheat futures moved higher in a test of old support levels, which helped put a bid under corn as well. Outside markets were higher as...
Oilseed Highlights: NBB Biodiesel Goal; Mato Grosso Soybeans; Argentine Soy Crush
Biodiesel Board Establishes Overly Ambitious Goal This week the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) held its annual meeting. As part of that meeting the organization established a goal of producing 6 billion gallons of biodiesel in the U.S. by 2030 and 15 billion gallons by 2050. Any industry...
Quest for E15
Now that the EPA has promised that at least 15 billion gallons of ethanol will be blended into a total gasoline pool of about 142.4 billion gallons, the trick is how to expand sales of higher blends of ethanol. EIA is forecasting total gasoline consumption in 2020 to increase about...
China Scales Back Ethanol Use Goals
Just as hopes were high for resuming ethanol exports to China under the Phase One deal to be signed this week, China is suspending its national E10 ethanol blending plan which was to be in effect in 2020. While the E10 goal was never realistic – USDA’s FAS post in China estimated mi...
New Year Prediction: More RFS Changes Coming
Two weeks ago, EPA increased the blending requirement for ethanol and biodiesel under its supplemental small refinery exemption (SRE) proposal. More changes, and potentially additional volumes of biofuels, are likely in the new year. EPA has pulled its proposed RFS re-set proposal from OMB, whi...
Ag Review - December 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the trade war impacts, oil and ethanol developments, a potential next cattle ranching frontier, farm proposals and more. ...
Change Ahead For Agriculture
The current political turbulence in Washington dominates the wire service headlines and the attention of op-ed writers. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment against President Trump over the Ukraine affair and a charge of obstruction of Congress. This i...
RVO Countdown
Friday of this week could be EPA’s release date for the final rule on the 2020 required volume obligations (RVO). That rule would include the small refinery offset language proposed by EPA in October. The rule was sent from EPA to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on 6 December; O...
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in recent years illegal. Apparently, the American Petroleum Institute (API) agrees. In comments filedlate last week on EPA’s proposed...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil was down about $3.00 per barrel, gasoline down more than $0.08 per gallon and diesel about $0.07 per gallon. Ethanol followed, with the Janu...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). According to RFA’s survey of manufacturers’ owners’ manuals for automakers responsible for 95 percent of...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’s dictate on how they farm, and the Trump Administration is challenging the state on at least two fronts: the imposition of its own stiffer...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption, a review of the Department of Commerce’s international trade report and what it might tell us about the U.S. economy, an overview of...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret Waivers” about the small refinery exemption (SRE) process. Specifically, the hearing focused on a legislative proposal sponsored by Hou...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplement to the 2020 required volume obligations (RVOs). Both industries have reacted negatively and RINs prices have dropped, but the plan is un...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry and seafood, pushed up food inflation in September to its highest level since October 2011. Back in 2011, China was going through a maj...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the amount of SRE’s exempted in a program year by using as a reference the past three years’ volumes recommended by the Department of...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however, as we reported on Tuesday of this week, it is more likely that EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out...
Market Commentary
Trading started out on a firmer note before bulls backed off and let prices drift lower into the close. The trade is cautious of being too bullish about the October WASDE, having projected bullish statistics for almost every report this summer, only to have USDA release big crop/big stocks numb...
Ethanol Increase: More Art than Science
EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out at 15 billion gallons; that is the latest word on the new biofuels package proposed by the Administration according to commentary from EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. The 2020 RVOs have been a political hot potato for...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the current political situation on key policy issues and the markets. First, the easier to grasp matters, are the recent data releases. Yesterday, USD...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic disagreement in what the problem is. The biofuels industry argues that the small refinery exemptions (SRE) have caused “demand destruct...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial drawing board, and rest assured it is overlaid with a giant electoral map. If the plan’s fate does come down to raw electoral...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybeans in Parana and states in the Center West. That, in turn, allowed for an early harvest and earlier plantings of corn in the dry season. Thi...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers elsewhere in the world since China’s huge corn stocks keep global prices depressed. However, now Wu Tianlong of the quasi-governmental...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy” (click here). After a White House meeting yesterday with USDA and EPA, that plan may be announced next week with the President u...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically it will if it lasts a long time, but “damage” is a relative term. The U.S. grows a lot of soybeans (plus wheat and corn) because...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat with the Trump administration while attempting to show strength in advance of the 70th anniversary recognizing the founding of the People&rsq...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration is promising to boost ethanol use, via a tweet from President Trump “The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue’s statement, but with the Trump administration actively looking to help farmers, there are few traders w...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progress/overall success/exit strategy with respect to the trade dispute with President Xi and China revealed just how boxed in the hardliners in...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for E15 that effectively prevented the market from taking advantage, and, of course, the small refinery waivers. But, another factor has...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb. ($1.35/lb.) as of 14 August, a weekly gain of RMB 1.71/kg ($0.24/kg) or RMB 0.78/lb. ($0.11/lb.) that was the largest so far in 2019. It pu...
Trade, Ethanol, and Politics
In gearing up for agriculture and ag policy, the 2020 election cycle is being looked at through the prism of politics. Typically, the farm vote is reliably Republican. Aimpoint Research, in collaboration with Agri-Pulse Communications and the American Farm Bureau Federation, conducted a poll du...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Ethanol’s Uphill Fight
U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is accustomed to attacks from environmentalists, but attacks by farmers over the agency’s small refinery exemptions (SREs) from the ethanol blend requirement has exposed the soft underbelly of the Trump administration. The number of waivers has increa...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs, and President Xi Jinping obviously senses it as a point of weakness to exploit. This was evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to concede any...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astounding 9.1 percent last month versus July 2018. Monthly food costs have not risen at this pace since January 2012, when China’s economy...
Ethanol, Pesticides and Politics
The EPA announced late Friday that it had granted 31 small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2018, bringing the total number to 7.4 percent of the overall 19.29-billion-gallon required biofuel volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). By comparison, the 2017 SREs were 9.4 percent...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Focus on New Products/Markets
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Supply Bulls, Demand Bears
Current grain and soy futures markets remind us of two old market clichés. The first is, “bears make money, bulls make money, but hogs get slaughtered.” The second is, “you never go broke taking a profit.” It appears that some fund managers may have forgotten or i...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Ethanol Use up Slightly, But Not Enough
The EPA published the 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for ethanol and biodiesel in today’s Federal Register, an unusually long lag after publically releasing the pre-publication announcement on 5 July. It will hold a public stakeholder hearing this Wednesday on the RVOs in Ypsilan...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw notably firmer prices with corn up 4 ¼ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents ,and SRW wheat up 8 cents. Forecasts for another heatwave across Europe (just as the region’s corn enters pollination and its spring wheat continues developing) were concerning, prompti...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the retroactive extension of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The most likely time frame for action on either appears to be in the fourth quarter o...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs for Fifth Straight Week With feed demand continuing to soften as more previously unidentified African swine fever (ASF) cases come to light, soybean inventories rose again to reach 924,700 MT as of 5 July 2019. That was 29,700 MT (+3.3 percent) higher than the...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-based molasses has superior nutritional qualities and has historically earned a premium. USDA pricing from more than a decade ago shows a 50...
Ethanol Facing Structural Changes in Liquid Fuel Market
The old saying “can’t see the forest for the trees” may be apt for the ethanol outlook for the next few years. Indeed, there’s been a great deal of looking at such trees as year-round E15 usage, small refinery wavers, the 2020 required volumes, and the upcoming Renewable...
EPA Announces 2020 Biofuel Volumes
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler signed the agency’s proposed 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) today, which will be published next week in the Federal Register and be open for public comments. The EPA will also hold a public hearing on the pro...
Ethanol Margins Low, Politics High
USDA released its Grain Crushing and Co-Production report today; total ethanol use of corn in May was 460 million bushels, which stands at 104 percent of April but 98 percent from the same period last year. DDGS production was 1.94 million tons. Corn gluten feed production from wet...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Meat Imports Surge in May as Domestic Shortfall Increases Monthly data from China’s Customs Bureau shows that total meat and offal imports hit a record high of 556,276 MT in May, up 45 percent from 383,639 MT in May 2018.This was driven by the ongoing impact of African swine fev...
Biodiesel Tax Credit and RFS Volumes with Some Surprises
The House Ways and Means Committee completed action on a tax extender package last Thursday night. It includes a three-year extension of the $1/gallon tax credit for biodiesel blending that matches the language already introduced in the Senate, meaning this will probably move through a House-Se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Ethanol Margins Squeezed Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Ethanol production ended May at a pace of 1.044 million barrels per day (bpd), which was the lowest level in a month after the buildup for the summer driving season. However, it also left stocks at their second highest level on record for that month. Crude oil stocks increased early in May and...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises as Feed Prices Trend Upward Strong downstream demand for soymeal continued last week. Meanwhile, soybean crushers have gradually raised output to meet market needs. As a result, China’s nationwide soymeal inventory rose 28,100 MT (+4.6 percent) last week t...
Scaled-Back RIN Reforms and Conflicting EPA Outlook on E15 Impact
As expected, last Friday the EPA published its final rule to allow year-round E15 sales. That rule included a much scaled-down proposal regarding the trading and holding of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which the agency said is a way to increases transparency to deter price manipulat...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Ag Review - May 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soy complex and biofuels sectors, and an assessment of certain global trade policies. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Slightly as Feed Demand Holds Steady China’s soymeal market appears to have found a bottom at the start of May. Feed demand, driven by the poultry and aquaculture sectors, has pushed both cash and future prices gradually upward since the first week of this...
Key EPA Biofuel Regulatory Decision Timeline
The EPA’s proposed rule on year-round E15 use is presently at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The administration has promised to have it in place by 1 June, which is Saturday. Therefore, the market should expect the rule this week. As WPI has previously noted, the new rul...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Recovers Ground on Improved Feed Demand With feed demand from poultry and aquaculture continuing to expand on the backs of China’s beleaguered hog industry, soymeal sales have begun to rise again. As of 17 May 2019, China’s estimated soymeal inventory stoo...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset
The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is when it is restricted under current regulations. An agency spokeswoman confirmed on 15 May that “EPA will finalize the rule before the...
Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?
There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based diesel. The distinctions between the fuels are subtle but important. In fact, it’s important enough that the U.S. Energy Information...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
2020 Proposed RFS Volumes Up Slightly
Last week the EPA sent its proposed rule on 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for final review. The proposal provides for modest increases in biofuel volumes. Under the RFS, conventional ethanol is capped...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Ethanol Overview
The U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) today released the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which maintains its estimate of ethanol use in 2019 at 14.53 billion gallons but trims the forecast for 2020 about 0.4 percent to 14.55 billion gallons (949,000 barrels/day). On a marketing...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war with the U.S., China launched a series of stimulative measures at the end of 2018. After a tepid January and February, the country’s econ...
Ethanol Growth Faces Mixed Bag of RFS Regulations
According to data released late last week, the EPA has granted one additional small refinery exemption (SRE) for 2017 and received three more SRE requests for 2018 since the last reported update (see table below for current counts). The additional SRE for 2017 was from a very small refinery as...
Shrinking Future of the RFS
Sometime in the next six to eight weeks, the EPA will propose the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2020 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The statutory volumes will then be prescribed for only the two following years (2021 and 2022), and the EPA will thereafter have greater discret...
EIA Forecasts on Biofuels
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this week. The agency trimmed back both production and consumption projections for biodiesel. On the production side, EIA cut its forecast for 2019 by 7 percent and for 2020 by 9 percent versu...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course as Feed Demand Improves Modest improvements in feed demand last week coupled with a drop in imported soybean stocks resulted in China’s estimated soymeal inventory declining yet again to a total 608,400 MT as of 4 April 2019, down 23,800 MT (-3.8...
Wet Weather Impacting Ethanol
Ethanol producers were already dealing with building inventories, lower blending rates and cheaper crude oil (U.S. crude production was up 17 percent in 2018). Now the recent flooding has impacted 10-15 percent of ethanol production in Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota. The biggest impact has bee...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; EU to Face Retaliation; Maple Leaf Foods;, French Rapeseed
Relatively Few Significant Changes to Soy Sector in WASDE USDA made very few changes to its supply and distribution tables for the soy sector in the April WASDE, but among the few significant revisions to its estimates were the following: - Brazil’s 2018 soybean crop was raised from 120.0...
Politics of the Biodiesel Tax Credit
With the second quarter of 2019 underway, the House is moving toward a restoration of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC), which expired 31 December 2017. A bill, co-sponsored by a bipartisan group of legislators, was introduced in that chamber to implement the credit through 2019 and extend it retr...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Ag Review - March 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean crush and U.S. biofuels industry, and an assessment of certain global trade policies. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Average Live Pig Price Soared 12 Percent Through Mid-March With all the chaos surrounding African swine fever (ASF), the publishing of weekly price data from 500 farm markets across China by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) appears to be unnecessarily...
Flooding Gives Bump to Ethanol, but for How Long?
The weather markets have hit ethanol, providing some welcomed price relief. The flooding in the Corn Belt has interrupted shipping/delivery and given a bump to ethanol prices, especially on the West Coast. Right now, producer margins are improved, and blender margins are tighter. Gasoline price...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
China In-Country Analysis
Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now managed to update its reports regarding U.S. agricultural exports through the end of 2018. A look at the total figures reveal some surprising find...
Chinese Trade Soap Opera and Markets
Having commented so often about U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing negotiations, we fear we risk boring clients. However, the trade negotiations are reminiscent of the traditional “soap operas” on daytime television in that their stories never end. Every time one crisis is r...
More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted
The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the queue for that year as of 1 March from seven to two. This brings the total number of exemptions to 9.4 percent of the 19.28 billion gallons...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed; Annual Ethanol Use Down
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed The EPA released its proposed waiver for year-round E15 use today. As previously reported (click here), it will now be on a tight approval deadline before the summer driving season starts. Given the risk of regulatory uncertainty and needed infrastructure...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
E15; Biodiesel Duties; The Debt Limit
E15 and SREs Yesterday the EPA submitted its proposal for year-round E15 use to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for sign-off. As noted here on Friday, a quick timeline for approval could be 75 days, which is slightly less than the number of days before the 1 June start of the su...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances
There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In testimony before the House Ag Committee, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue suggested that EPA was unlikely to finish the waiver for year-round E15 use...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales, Sinograin Reserve Sales; Canada’s Soy Sales; French Biodiesel Strike
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s release of the USDA weekly export sales report for the week ending 21 February indicated unexpectedly large sales of U.S. soybeans, particularly to China. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were at the low end of analysts’ estimates, but soymeal exp...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...
EIA Aims to Improve Biofuel Data to Reflect the Current Market, Especially Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has proposed revamping its data collection surveys and reporting process on fuel supplies, production, distribution and inputs. It outlined those plans in a late December notice and closed the request-for-comments period yesterday. Given the evol...
Market Commentary
In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today’s trading with wheat posting solid gains. The markets remain supported/optimistic based on (apparently) improving trade relations betw...
Market Commentary
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson presented the 2019 projections for grains, oilseeds, planted area and farm income. USDA foresees net farm...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Lower Food Prices Push Inflation Down in January With China’s major holiday occurring just around the corner in February, the country typically experiences a run-up in consumer prices during January as a result of increased food expenditures. This is particularly true of fres...
Ethanol Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. Those projections offer a glimmer of hope that the industry can start to chip away at the growing stocks of fuel. The ethanol consumption forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were rais...
Oilseed Highlights: Indonesia’s Biodiesel; Michigan Soy Processor; China’s Aquaculture; Brazilian Soy
Indonesian President Promises to Move to B-100 if Reelected Indonesian President Joko Widodo said in a debate that if reelected, he wants to move from requiring the blending of 20 percent biodiesel made from palm oil with diesel to 100 percent. He said that doing so would create a market for ab...
Trade Winds Blowing
Despite being shortened by the Presidents Day holiday, this should be an interesting week with another “data dump” featured on 22 February. First, USDA/FAS will finally get current with its weekly export sales reports, including the balance of that data delayed by the government shu...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Finnish Supply Destruction; Slaying the Nonsense; “Other” Wins/Worst Idea
Finnish Supply Destruction Commodity supply and demand forecasts almost uniformly forecast too much of the former and not enough of the latter. A similar situation in the past gave birth to the biofuels policy that turns agricultural commodities into transportation fuel. Unfortunately, USDA als...
Market Commentary
Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Today, though, there was a generally optimistic feeling about both that helped push the soybean and corn markets higher. The next round of trade...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein
U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be shipped in the current marketing year. This brought total reported soybean sales to China since its delegation last visited Washington to 3.80...
Market Commentary
Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an example of his aggressive trade policies but did not mention its recent soybean purchases. He also asked Congress to approve the USMCA trade a...
Market Commentary
Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the February WASDE, are a month late has a great deal to do with it. The last WASDE before the government shutdown came out on 11 December, and mu...
Musings about Chinese Trade
This morning USDA announced a sale of 2.603 MMT of soybeans to China for 2018/19, part of the second tranche of 5 MMT that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu promised would be purchased as a negotiating “reward” when he and his group met with President Trump at the White House on 31 January...
EPA Focus on RFS Rules
With the federal government now fully reopened (at least until 15 February) and the EPA likely to soon have a full-time administrator (the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee confirmation hearing on Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler is 5 February), there are two important rulemaking...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; China Soy Imports; Argentine Biodiesel; Russia-Brazil Soy Trade; South American Soy Crops
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights – Finally Today USDA issued its first export sales report in over a month, but only the week ending 20 December was covered (all data discussed below pertains to that week). As noted in yesterday’s Market Commentary, the normal publication schedule w...
Market Commentary
The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingly competitive. Some growth in export sales volumes was likely during that period, and traders have been anxious for the reports to resume. H...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybean Demand; EU Approves U.S. Soy; Global Feed; U.S. Soy Inspections
Brazil’s Soybean Demand in CY 2018 Last week Oil World published soybean usage data for Brazil in CY 2018, which showed it consumed or exported more than it produced that year. This suggests either that crop was larger than estimated, or the country had more available stocks on 1 January...
Ethanol Outlook
For the first three weeks of 2019, ethanol production dropped to 1.027 million barrels/day from 1.046 million barrels/day for Q4 2018 and was well below year-ago levels. For reference, the current pace of production would result in a total 15.75 billion gallons for the year, down from more than...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy futures struggled to find volume and price direction amid the continued lack of inputs from USDA and with little else to lead them. Trading volume today can best be described as awful. Prices moved slightly lower, mostly as a result of neglect, and remained range-bound during...
Federal Reserve Report on Economic Conditions in the Regional Ag Sectors
The Federal Reserve Banks issued the first Beige Book for 2019 on 16 January. The report is published eight times per year (the previous release was on 5 December 2018, and the next will be in March). Each bank gathers anecdotal information on the current economic conditions in its district by...
U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller
As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Oilseed Highlights: Malaysian Biodiesel; Soymeal and DDGS; Argentine Soy Crushers; Pakistan and Cargill
Malaysia to Double Use of Palm-Based Biodiesel The glut and low prices of palm oil have caused the government of Malaysia to double the blending requirement for biodiesel with diesel from the current 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020, according to Minister of Primary Industries Teresa Kok. Oil W...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
EPA Administrator Confirmation Hearing and Biofuel Outlook
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) will hold a confirmation hearing tomorrow for Andrew Wheeler, nominated last week by President Trump to be the EPA administrator. He has been the acting in that position since July and is the former deputy administrator. Wheeler was...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Flying Blind
As the partial U.S. government shutdown has moved into its third week with no end in sight, the nation’s press is increasingly focused on the ripple affect it is having on various sectors of the U.S. economy. An example is a recent article in the Washington Post that discussed how the lac...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.185/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, down $0.6 fr...
Market Commentary
Today’s CME closing grain market board was very unusual in the array of tiny price changes compared with that of yesterday. MGEX wheat had the biggest gains, finishing up 2.5-3 cents. Every other change was 1 cent or less except for a 1.25 cent gain for corn and Chicago wheat. While this...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Ag Review - December 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. grain and soybean sectors, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mixed overnight, having traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. As the early morning trading recess approached, wheat prices edged lower. However, soybean prices staying around the prior close in expectation that new large sales to China would be reported by US...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Middle East/North Africa (MENA) buyers of Ukraine’s wheat and corn are very concerned about the situation that has developed between that country and Russia in the Kerch Strait that abuts Crimea. While Russia says that the strait is oper...
Farm Bill and Ethanol in Congress’s Closing Stretch
The final draft of the 2018 Farm Bill conference agreement is likely to be released tomorrow, and a final vote could take place as soon as Wednesday (12 December). Focus will be centered on the following key items and whether the final text delivers the anticipated changes: Margin Protection P...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India Oil Meal Exports Up Oil meal exports of 2.043 MMT for April-November were almost 10 percent higher versus 1.855 MMT for the same period last year. October 2018 was the start of the soymeal season, and nearly 0.367 MMT were exported in the two-month period since then, up 32.73 percen...
A Look at the U.S.-Chinese “Agreement”
In terms of publicity, the biggest news coming out of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires late last week had nothing to do with that gathering. Instead, it concerned the dinner meeting between President Trump, President Xi and groups of advisors that resulted in the announcement of a temporary truc...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. China-Trade Truce Impact Unclear; Brazil’s Huge Soy Crop; Duties on Argentine Biodiesel Imports
U.S.-China Trade Truce’s Impact on Soybeans Far from Clear Now that there is a 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and South American soybean sectors along with Chinese soybean importers are all trying to determine how they will be affected. President Trump has indicat...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
High Octane Legislative Proposal
A pair of Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives used the day before Thanksgiving to release a new proposal for Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) reform that would replace the annual mandated volumes with a new standard for high octane finished motor fuel. Those two are Representative...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Odds and Ends
With the corn/soybean harvests in their final stage and the normal slowdown of a holiday week, the current markets may not generate much that deserves analysis. There is some history of significant short-term price action on the Friday following the Thanksgiving Day market closure. For whatever...
Ethanol Exports Can’t Draw Down Stocks
Ethanol exports are on track to set a record in 2018 and will likely top 1.6 billion gallons, approximately 10 percent of all production. However, robust sales have not been able to hold off the building of stocks due to the pace of production. Those stocks reached 23,514 barrels for the week e...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soybean Exports; U.S. Soybean Inspections; Argentine Biodiesel
European Rapeseed Plantings Down Sharply The head of the French Federation of Oilseed and Protein Crop Producers (FOP) indicated last week that the country’s winter rapeseed plantings will likely decrease 30-35 percent from last year due to the lack of rain this fall. While that suggests...
2019 Biofuel Volumes Being Finalized
The final 2019 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The statute requires that the volumes be published by 30 November. The EPA submitted its draft of the final rule to OMB on 31 October and pu...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Blockage; Brazil and Biodiesel; U.S. Export Sales and Soy Crush
China Blocking Discharge of U.S. Soybean Cargoes When China imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans on 6 July, it was assumed that they could still be imported if the duty was paid. However, that appears to not be the case as reports indicate China has prevented the discharge o...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Ethanol: Slow Bureaucracy and Growing Stocks
The EPA has revealed its rule-making timeline regarding a waiver for year-round consumption of E15, and the proposed rule is targeted for February. After comments are received and reviewed, the planned deadline for the final rule is May. The ethanol industry has expressed frustration with this...
Fundamentally Fair Values
Futures markets are all about anticipating the direction that prices for the underlying instrument will take at certain specific points of time in the future, and each has spawned its own cottage industry of analysts who perform that task. Price forecasting can be for periods as near as 30-60 d...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume seemed slightly higher than has been usual recently, but price action for grain and soy futures markets was muted nevertheless. Corn prices held around unchanged, and wheat was fractionally lower. Most of the action occurred in the soy complex as overnight selling pushe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade volume was limited as the market awaited release of USDA’s October WASDE. Corn and wheat were a penny or so lower with soybeans down 4-5 cents, which all tracked with expectations of a bearish report. When the report came out at noon (EDT) today, the immediate conclusion w...
Ethanol Fundamentals and E15 Policy Process
Ethanol stocks, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), are at their highest level since March, and they are also up 8.8 percent versus the same time last year and 3.6 percent above the previous week’s total.. Despite the stock build, weekly ethanol production is do...
Market Commentary
Tuesday’s rumors had the Russian government taking steps to slow the frantic pace of wheat exports. Today it became clear that it did act but not in a way that was expected. The government apparently has closed about 30 interior grain elevators in Rostov and Krasnodar for three months. Th...
E15 Announcement and Perhaps More Next Week
President Trump is scheduled to be in Council Bluffs, Iowa next week (9 October), and he has hinted that he’ll unveil the administration’s plans to approve year-round sales of E15 at that time. This is not the first time that expectations on the issue have been set, evidenced by the...
Political and Strategic Analysis; Manufactured Food Poisoning; Biofuel Bargain
Political and Strategic Analysis Prime Minister Shinzō Abe successfully rebuffed President Donald Trump on bilateral trade negotiations for two years, but the threat of auto tariffs forced his hand. He may still be able to drag out the final outcome of what was agreed to in New York this week,...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures featured higher prices and modest volume. Soybeans were the leader with the November contract up about 7.5 cents. The grains were higher but more timidly so. Chicago wheat was up about 4 cents, and corn’s gains were limited to fractions. Trading vo...
Friday’s USDA Reports
USDA will release its annual end-of-September batch of reports on Friday, 28 September. Included will be U.S. quarterly stocks as of 1 September, final production estimates for U.S. spring wheat, durum, barley and oats, and also the agency’s first estimate of winter wheat planted acreage...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The Closing Bell Wrap-Up is back after covering for WPI’s Bob Kohlmeyer last week. And what a week it was. The WASDE created a bearish selling party while the cattle and hog markets headed the opposite direction in a hurricane-fueled rally. Wall Street is higher as of this writing w...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s...
It’s E15 Season Again
Yesterday was 16 September, which means that retailers can sell E15 again. Because of the evaporative volatility, it is not sold during the period of 1 June-15 September. However, the Trump administration is looking at granting a waiver for year-round sales, which could come prior to the Novemb...
RFS Issues Ahead
The EPA is busy with renewable fuel issues. It is reviewing comments on the proposed volume obligations for 2019, which will be finalized by 30 November, and considering a year-round waiver for E15 that it is expected to propose, perhaps before the 2018 elections. The agency is also dealing wit...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Looking at RFS Waiver Reallocation
One of the most controversial EPA actions over the past year has been the granting of hardship waivers for small refiners. Biofuel groups have complained that the waivers have been a de facto reduction in the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), which is accurate, and they pressed hard prior to...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade continued to be light in volume and devoid of excitement overnight with limited price movement. This dull pattern carried over to the day session as well. Wheat futures moved lower during the day, a response to ongoing fund liquidation, the lack of export demand, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Truck Rates; Global Biodiesel Output; U.S. Soy Yield Forecast
Brazilian Farmers Squeezed by Higher Truck Freight Rates Farmers in Brazil’s Cerrados region have long been burdened by the high cost of shipping their soybeans to ports, mostly on trucks. However, they ae now being squeezed by new mandatory and much higher truck freight rates, which the...
Labor Day: Good News, Bad News for Ethanol Demand
A snapshot of the fuel market shows what could be the classic “good news, bad news” scenario for ethanol demand. The good news is that it’s Labor Day weekend and increased driving ratchets up motor fuel demand. Gasoline prices are higher as well, which increases blending margi...
Market Commentary
In recent years, the last week of August and/or the first week of September have been the best bets for the timing of seasonal lows for CME grain and soy futures prices. The reason for this is that for the last several years, prospects for very large harvests of corn and soybeans about to get u...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
Market Commentary
USDA’s aid package for farmers, whose income prospects have been impacted by the administration’s use of higher tariffs as trade policy, is reportedly now being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and it should be ready for unveiling on 24 August. Unconfirmed repo...
Comments Submitted to the EPA on the RFS
The comment period for the 2019 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume obligations closed on 17 August. There were more than 290,000 comments filed. Some highlights from major stakeholders included the following: The American Petroleum Institute (API) called for Congress to sunset the RFS progra...
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Ethanol More Expensive to Blenders, but Fuel Demand a Record
Things are bearish for ethanol producers despite a strong gasoline market. Ethanol margins are being squeezed to their lowest point in about six months, mostly on the decrease in ethanol prices. However, corn prices ranging above last year are contributing to the pressure. Renewable Identificat...
WASDE Ethanol Margin Forecast and EIA Projections
Ethanol production nameplate capacity has exceeded 16 billion gallons, growing more than 700 million gallons or 5 percent from 2017 to 2018. The increase in the U.S. Energy Information Administration‘s (EIA’s) official capacity estimate has been due to expansions in plant capacity a...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidation of presumably profitable long positions. New short positions just ahead of Friday’s WASDE would require that the sellers have stron...
EPA Report Five Years Late, Implications Moving Forward
On 29 June, the EPA’s Office of Research and Development issued the Second Triennial Report to Congress on Biofuels and the Environment. The report reviews existing peer reviews science on the environmental impact of biofuels. The first report was issued in 2011 and included data through...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big soybean rally was sponsored by a press report indicating the possibility that the U.S. and China might resume a formal discussion on the current trade conflict. Overnight price action suggested that the rally was overdone as soybean futures gave back more than one-third of...
Short- and Long-Term Trends in Soyoil and Biodiesel
On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported May biodiesel production of 149 million gallons, 9 million gallon above April and up 13 million gallons versus May 2017. The January-May 2018 total of 686 million gallons was 120 million gallons higher than the first five mon...
E15 and Small Refinery Waivers Still Unsettled
In Iowa yesterday, President Trump said the administration is “very close” to granting a year-round waiver for E15 usage. This confirms what he said in early April when asked about ethanol from the White House press pool. He had responded, “We're going to raise it up to 15 per...
Ag Review - July 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...
Market Commentary
After featuring active trade and higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, grain and soybean markets paused to catch their breath today. Volume was restrained, and limited price action kept values near Tuesday’s closes. Following those rare occasions during the past few months when markets ral...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Policy Changes May Not Ease Pressure on Sugar Sector Immediately Changes in ethanol prices, including that of B-Heavy molasses as an input for making the fuel, do not mean that India will become self-sufficient in supplies and fulfil the demand of the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP). Fur...