WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall After Bullish USDA Reports; Panic Not Finished in Cattle Markets
The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports for soybeans. Further, they saw little reason to keep buying corn and wheat amid large on-farm stocks and amply supplied global balance she...
Duck Data
The USDA attache’s office in New Delhi reports that India issued revised import rules last month for premium duck meat. The tariff was reduced from 30 percent to 5 percent, and standards were announced for selling the meat to at least three-star hotels and restaurants approved by the gove...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
Targeting India’s Rice Subsidies
At the behest of the domestic rice industry, U.S. House Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) asked the U.S. International Trade Commission to conduct Section 332 fact-finding investigation of global competitiveness in rice, which the industry claims is skewed by unfair trade prac...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
Eyes Open on India
USDA is leading a trade mission to India, noting that it is 1.4 billion people or 18 percent of the global population but accounts for less than one percent of U.S. agricultural exports. Average tariff rates tend to be higher in developing countries and lower in developed countries. But India&r...
India’s Rice Squeeze
The New Delhi playbook for staple crops is to offer farmers a generous Minimum Support Price (MSP), donate the extra output to the nation’s poor, and then dump on the world market any surpluses that would otherwise depress domestic prices. India’s rice surplus was around a quarter o...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks, up 25 million on higher yields, to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price was reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cen...
White Commodities Focus
White commodities is an American euphemism for three crops, cotton, rise, and sugar, that are all white in color and each have statutory programs considered complex or unique. They are generally produced in the U.S. south, and their traits include: Cotton: A chemically intensive crop with the l...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA kept their estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels for U.S. soybean ending stocks. The estimate for U.S. production was reduced 42 million on lower yields, but beginning stocks were increased and soybean exports reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion (due to increased competition fro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
India’s Day in the Sun; Rapporteur Inflation
India’s Day in the Sun The G20 meeting occurs this coming weekend in the New Delhi convention center and India is making the most of its central role in the event. Although Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be skipping the event, they may not be missing...
Bent, Not Broken
The recent BRICS+ meeting in South Africa highlighted some of the animosity toward a world order long dominated by countries comprising just a minority of the world’s population. However, the Western model is difficult to undo for many reasons. From the standpoint of its architects, it pr...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to global GDP than the G7 (30.7 percent). They also comprise 26.7 percent of the world's land surface and 41.5 percent of the global population...
Feast or Famine
The COVID supply chain meltdown created anxiety over the availability of agricultural inputs. This compelled many operators to look forward and lock in their needs for 2023, often at elevated prices. This buy-high insurance marker has been met with ammonia prices that have now fallen by 50 perc...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
India's Prolific Agriculture
India is the world’s ninth largest agricultural exporter. The Biden Administration wants to negotiate with India on agricultural trade access, but New Delhi has a good thing going. Its agricultural trade surplus with the world has been growing, and more than a third of the reason is trade...
New Era for Sweet
The world’s two largest sugar producing and exporting nations, Brazil and India, also use part of their output to make ethanol. Brazil has a long history of doing so but it has not changed the relative share of sugar that is exported. By contrast, and as predicted, India’s share of...
Exporting Food Insecurity
New Delhi is always one of the first capitals to raise the issue of food insecurity in international fora. It concurrently argues that agricultural subsidies by rich countries worsen global food insecurity while its own policies and subsidies are designed to lessen the problem. But rich countri...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA reduced their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, 50 million lower than last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $375.00...
Fungibility for Food Security
There is speculation that rice prices will increase due a smaller crop in India, the world’s largest exporter, and the impacts of El Niño. That is not currently reflected in futures prices, which have fallen 18 percent from their high at the beginning of the year. India’s ric...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
Driver of Oilseeds
The biofuels industry gets a lot of attention for influencing vegetable oil prices but growing human consumption has its role as well. The largest importer for vegetable oils as food is India and its population is reaching par with that of China. In addition to population growth, India is...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projection for U.S. soybeans is for 2023/24 ending stocks of 350 million bushels, up 15 million from 2022/23. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 123.3 million with higher stocks for the United States, Brazil, and the EU being partly offset by lower stock...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
Oilseed Highlights – Downward Slope
The Market It was a tough week for soybeans, which must have seen a dead cat bounce last week because this week peeled back the July contract by 46.5 cents and sent it back below $14 for the first time in a long while. There was even more ignominy for soyoil, with the July contract marking a ne...
Challenging India Subsidies
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen are asking USTR Katherine Tai and the Biden Administration to mount a WTO challenge to India’s use of agricultural subsidies for wheat and rice. Washington has issued multiple counter-notifications to the WTO that highlight how much India is understa...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts is unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean meal prices are also unchanged. The soybean oil price is projected at 64.0 cents per pound, down 2 cents. Global 2022/23 soybean production is reduc...
Large Wheat Importers
Pakistan is finally joining Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria as a wheat importer. The basis has long existed but has taken time to fully develop. Like the other nations in this cohort, there is a large, growing, and youthful population running headlong into a limited agricultural base. Consum...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
India’s Rise; Critic versus Constructionist
India’s Rise The world’s largest democracy has refused to criticize or disengage from Russia’s autocratic regime. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is playing his country’s power card between Russia and the U.S. The Biden Administration will pour on a full-court press this ye...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Spinning the WTO Wheels
India this week blocked a perfunctory motion at the WTO to move surplus WTO funds from 2021 into 2023. All other WTO members agreed that the funds could be used to cover the organization’s “mandatory and unavoidable expenses.” Reportedly, other WTO members characterized India&...
WASDE Soybeans
Domestics U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month. USDA explained that due to their review of EPA's recent proposed rule for renewable fuel targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022/23 is reduced 200 million pounds to 11.6 billion. Soyb...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil price is also unchanged at 69 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is f...
Blame the Rice Boogey Man
Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. soybean production to 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. Due to lower exports offseting by increased crush, ending sto...
Policy Conflicts and Solutions; India Highlighted
Policy Conflicts and Solutions Policymakers are realizing that the three big issues of climate change, sustainability and food security are conflicting. The Cairns Group is comprised of highly competitive agricultural exporting countries and so their frustration with the conflicts at the WTO is...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for the domestic soybean crop in 2022/23 is reduced in the September WASDE. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushe...
Best Trade Bargain
Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal says that India would be “happy and willing” to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. American farmers should be pummeling the White House to pursue such a deal. India runs a large trade surplus with the U.S. and benefits from s...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA forecast U.S. soybean production for 2022/23 at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million - higher yields more than offset lower harvested area; Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bus...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s June 2022 estimate for the seasonal average price of U.S. soyoil in 2022/23 is unchanged at 70 cents per pound. ...
Dominance in Rice
India is the world’s largest exporter of rice and Refinitiv points out that India’s export rice prices have been consistently lower than that of Thailand and Vietnam for the past two years. India is exporting roughly twice the amount of rice as Thailand and Vietnam combined. India h...
Market Commentary: Wheat Scores New Highs; Soybeans Rally on China Buying Rumors; Cattle Fall on Weak Cash Trade
The CBOT traded a generally bullish day with wheat futures forging a classic bullish day on the charts. Wheat futures opened higher, traded sharply lower to test support in yesterday’s chart gap, then settled higher after forging new contract highs. World wheat risks abound, and the only...
Market Commentary: Wheat Limit-Up on India’s Export Ban; Corn Rallies on Brazilian Drought/Frost Risk
Over the weekend, India announced a ban on wheat exports following the massive heat waves that have severely hurt the country’s yields. Before the ban, India was expected to be a marginal but significant – especially this year – exporter of about 10 MMT. USDA’s May WASDE...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Pre-WASDE Trade; Wheat Rallies on Too Dry/Too Wet Forecast; Inflation Drives Fund Buying
The CBOT was higher the day before the May WASDE with traders turning more bullish amid persistently challenging weather forecasts for the world’s major crop producers. Moreover, U.S. economic data sent funds looking for assets in which to hedge inflation risks, which meant an inflow of s...
Market Commentary: India Suggests, Then Denies, Wheat Export Limits; Exports Rally Soyoil; OK Wheat Yields Not OK
CBOT futures ended the day mostly higher with wheat leading the way amid rumors of an export ban from India and poor Oklahoma HRW yields. The wheat strength helped pull corn higher, along with rumors of Chinese buying interest this morning. The recent pullback in corn and soybean futures has, r...
Wheat Predator to Protectionist
Back in January, U.S. wheat growers were demanding that USTR file a WTO case against India for exceeding its de minimis limit of subsidies capped at 10 percent of the value of wheat production. The demand was presaged by a U.S. government counternotification to the WTO that New Delhi had substa...
U.S. – China Rift; India’s Manipulations; Then and Now
U.S. – China Rift There is a split within Washington policy circles over the continuation of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Backing the Senate position, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for reducing the tariffs and White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased exports and lower ending stocks. Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales have been stronger than expected through March. The soybean oil price is projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased U.S. exports and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to WASDE-623-3 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Seed use is raised in line with recor...
War on Words; Defense Kills Permanence; War Changes Market – But How?
War on Words Autocratic regimes can be dystopian and filled with censorship. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has ordered information sources to not call his assault on Ukraine an “attack,” an “invasion,” or a “war.” Instead, it is to be called a special operati...
NBT Beats GMO; CBAM Cost
NBT Beats GMO As in Europe, genetically modified crops have been controversial in India where only Bt cotton is approved for cultivation. However, scientists apparently convinced the Modi government that new breeding techniques SDN1 (small RNA degrading nuclease 1) and SDN2 (small RNA degrading...
White Commodities
The U.S. rice industry motivated its politicians to attack USTR Katherine Tai last week as she made the rounds on Capitol Hill. The main point of their ire is India, which they claim uses subsidies far more than WTO rules allow. Indeed, India has subsidized agriculture to the point that its ric...
USTR Sleeps Too Much; Weird Trade Obligations; War Profiteering
USTR Sleeps Too Much With hearings before House and Senate trade panels over the next two days, USTR Katherine Tai suddenly says she has “serious concerns” about Mexico’s energy policies. She reportedly did not arrive at those “concerns” until pushed by members of...
WASDE Soyoil - March 2022
Soybean oil: price is raised 2 cents to 68.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soyoil: Feb 2022
Soyoil: Soybean oil price forecast is raised 1 cent to 66.0 cents per pound...
Hot Vegetable Oil
The global oilseeds situation remained on track this past week with supplies tight and prices rising. March soybeans likely added over 50 cents this week, but nothing is hotter than the global vegetable oil situation. First a look at the overall soybean production situation. South American Soyb...
Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass
Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they should collapse. Afghanistan receives aid despite control by the Taliban, which banned women from governing positions and abolished the Min...
Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup
Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...
Trade Announcement on India and Pork Highlights What is Not Happening
Trade negotiations are a long, slow process, marked in many cases by small steps on the way to broader market access and more robust trade. A good reminder of that was the joint announcement by USDA and USTR yesterday that India has opened its market to U.S. pork. According to a sta...
Oilseed Situation Update
As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...
How Sweet it Isn’t
In the past three years, India has switched from being the number four exporter of sugar in the world to number two. Over the past dozen years, its domestic production has grown by 56 percent, but its exports have exploded by 229 percent. It turns out there is a reason. In a WTO challenge by Au...
WASDE Soyoil
Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average on-farm soybean price is u...
Inflation Blame-Shifting; India’s Un-Reform
Inflation Blame-Shifting President Joe Biden has asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the major oil companies for raising the cost of the fuel they sell. Now the Washington Post reports that attacking private companies for inflation may be a broader strategy. A large majority of Am...
GM Advantage
Eggplant (Brinjal) is one of the more important vegetables consumed in South Asia. It is low in nutrients but provides bulk and fiber while also being highly absorbent of flavorings. It is also subject to attack by the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, which reduces yields on a large share of the...
WASDE Soyoil
The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs
USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/21, it again raised its estimates for stocks in 2021/22 with its 12 October WASDE crop production report. By increasing its forecast for the...
Land Rents Smooth Sector
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There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landlords reaping the benefits of government subsidies. Researchers at the IMF, Princeton, and the University of Toronto studied the farmland ren...
India’s Opportunity; Mexico’s Loss; Meat of the Issue
India’s Opportunity Sometime next year India will promulgate its next five-year Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). Based on the past five years, India has been operating an anti-trade policy. Average tariffs on industrial goods have risen from an average 13.3 percent to 17.6 percent, and in agri...
MFN Hurdle; Sovereign Losers; Trade Policy Movement
MFN Hurdle German Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner is urging the European Commission to ensure that third countries with a trade agreement with Europe have the same sustainability standards. Basically, imports must be held to the same standards as internal EU production methods. The pro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Soy Stocks; Argentina Soy Crush; India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 16 September indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had reasonably good success selling soybeans and soymeal for export during the week. However, as expected export sales and exports of soy...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in...
Getting Competitive; Big to Rescue India
Getting Competitive President Joe Biden rationalized the withdrawal from Afghanistan yesterday by first saying it was “no longer in our national interest,” and then adding that we need to “shore up the nation’s competitiveness to meet the challenges of China and Russia.&...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Soymeal; Canadian Canola; Renewable Diesel
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights The week ending 19 August was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans for shipment in 2021/22, but not so much for exporters of soymeal and soyoil. Net export sales of soybeans for shipment in 2020/21 totaled only 75,100 MT while sales for shipment in 20...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Sales; Argentine Corn versus Soybeans; Soybean Crop Damage in India
Soy Export Sales, Large Soybean Sales to China and Elsewhere The last two weeks have seen very large sales of U.S. soybeans to China and other destinations for export in MY 2021/22. This is the time of the year U.S. exporters normally report large new-crop soybean export sales, so the sales are...
WASDE Soyoil
2021/22 global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Parana River; India Soy; LA Renewable Diesel
U.S. Old-Crop Soybean Export Sales Declined Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated old-crop soybean export sales declined last week, but sales for the next marketing year increased. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also were poor. Net U.S. soybean export sales for shipment in 202...
Security Trumps Economics
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week but do not expect any help for U.S. farmers. The two plan to talk about China, bilateral defense ties, regional peace, and other geopolitical matters. There is no indication that the Biden Administration...
Hunger at Home, Food Abroad
Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India believes that 2021 will be worse because now savings have been depleted. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports have increased by over...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month. ...
Meat and Health
Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, this should be evidenced statistically. India by far has the highest percentage of population on a vegetarian diet (38 – 45 percent) yet...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian Canola; U.S. Soymeal; Indian Monsoon; China ASF; Soy Stocks
Canadian Canola Crop is in Big Trouble. While most of the attention in the U.S. has been focused on the drought in the upper Midwest the drought in the Canadian prairie provinces appears to be even worse. And that is a big problem for the canola crop in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; India Soybeans; Brazil and Argentine Soymeal; Weather
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS weekly export sales report continued to show low U.S. soy export sales and also a slowing down of exports because of the great increase in exports out of South America. However, there are signs demand for U.S. soy will begin to pick up in late...
Popular India Soy and Maize
The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However, the largest annual increases in the market support price (MSP) are going to soybeans and then maize. As previously noted, India’s so...
India’s Soy Outpaces
The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India is the world’s largest consumer of vegetable oil and exported three times as much soymeal a decade ago until domestic demand started...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from...
Punish the People; Chump Trade Policy; Careful with Farmers
Punish the People Like consumers elsewhere in the world, Indians are now paying about double for vegetable oil what they paid a year ago. This is a bargain when one considers that Chicago July soyoil futures are up 150 percent from last year. India is the world’s largest importer of veget...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil Tariffs; Argentine Beef and Soy; Brazil Land; China Soy Stocks
India Considering Proposal to Lower Vegoil Import Tariff Rates The government of India yesterday indicated it is considering reducing tariff rates for imports of vegoils. The initiative is aimed at reducing vegoil prices to consumers since vegoil prices have more than doubled this year. Vegoils...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; China Soy Crush; More Containers, India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters made moderate export sales of U.S. soybeans and soymeal in the week ending 20 May but made almost no sales or exports of soyoil. Exports of soybeans and soymeal were seasonally positive. Net sales of...
Reliability versus Value in Beef
Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. However, Russia has proven that wheat importing countries care more about value (quality and price) than they do about reliability of specific su...
Not Just Food
The tightening global stocks situation is not just impacting food crops but fiber as well. Global production of cotton is down 7.4 percent at the same time consumption has increased 14.6 percent. The result is that ending stocks have fallen 5 percent and the average price is 14 percent higher...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Renewable Diesel Deals; China Feed; India Meal
Soy Export Sales Highlights USDA's export sales report for the week ending 15 April indicated U.S. export sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 continue to be slow, but sales were positive for 2021/22. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were almost totally limited to nearby markets. Net soybea...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates
U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use projections are mostly unchanged. Ending stocks remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 million from last year’s record. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.15 per bushel, unchanged from last month.&n...
WASDE Soymeal
Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $400.00 per ton. ...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 41.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent from last month. ...
Inflation Focus; New WTO Skunk
Inflation Focus As the U.S. Senate debates a $1.9 trillion COVID economic recovery effort, the issue of its potential for stoking inflation has been forced into the debate by a frisky bond market. Indeed, equity markets fell today despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying that easy...
Folly of Anti-Big; Meating the Hurdles
Folly of Anti-Big A Washington Insider report states that a study by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) reveals that the Trump administration ‘aimed its “bailouts” increasingly to the nation's biggest farms.’ It correctly claims that 1 percent of farms received 23 per...
Stale Result; Mixed Messages on China; Transatlantic Carrot and Stick
Stale Result India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has called for a “fresh package” trade agreement with the U.S. that is more ambitious than the effort with the Trump Administration. He denigrated the Trump effort as “nitpicking on every small issue.&rd...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Organic Products; Argentine Export Taxes
Another Week of Good U.S. Soybean Export Sales Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exports had a good week selling U.S. soybeans in the week ending 4 February. Sales of soymeal also were good, but there was a net reduction in soyoil export sales. Net soybean export sales...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 1.5 cents to 40.0 cents per pound...
Market Commentary: Corn Pauses After Contract High as Wheat, Soybean Chop Sideways
Corn followed through on last week’s upside breakout and overnight fund buying sent the market to a fresh contract high. Buying interest was limited in wheat and soybeans, however, with funds using rallies in both as selling opportunities. That created choppy, sideways trade for most CBOT...
India Substitutes Cess for Duty
The WTO just completed its trade policy review of India and it affirmed what is already known by that nation’s trading partners…India continues to rely on tariffs, minimum import prices, import restrictions, and licensing… with frequent changes that create uncertainties for...
Get What You Beget; Economic Weapons; Marketing Plan?
Get What You Beget It started with geographic indicators, then it moved on to country of origin labeling even for products made within the EU’s “single” market, next came calls for food sovereignty, though that is aimed at stopping food imports from third country suppliers. No...
Codifying Gains; Saving Forests; From Importer to Exporter; Arctic Fruit
Codifying Gains American farmers are said to be politically conservative. After all, they tend to vote for Republicans in large numbers. But even Republicans are not the budget hawks they once were. Instead, politics has solely become who gets the largess, not whether it builds more debt...
Market Commentary: Even Bears are Bulls
If a wolf can be in sheep’s clothing, could a bear be in a bull’s hide? Or a bull in a bear’s coat? Whether a bull or a bear, it is about profit-taking, which means sometimes the bull makes a nod to the bear and the bear to the bull. Today was another day won by the bull but n...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Argentina Dryness; Indian Soymeal
A Good Week for U.S. Soy Exporters Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil had great success in the week ending 7 January. Sales of soybeans were high for this point in the marketing year and export sales of soymeal were a marketing y...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 38.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents...
Spud Consumption
Although Walmart sells more groceries, Kroger is the largest grocery chain in the U.S. and some things on its list of documented food trends in 2020 will concern health specialists. The effort to avoid contracting COVID by staying home included increased consumption of flavored potato chips. Al...
Biden Trade Policy; Slippery Slope; Selective Attention; Selective Interpretation
Biden Trade Policy Washington’s chattering class continue to speculate and opine on what President-Elect Joe Biden’s administration should do with trade policy. Some say to cut tariffs, others recommend ending bilateralism, there is even the hope that he will decide to rejoin the TP...
Plenty of Global Stocks
The markets are bullish and global food prices are rising but stocks of wheat, corn, and soybeans are ample. Over the past 40 years, the world’s population has increased by 70 percent. Over that same period, global ending stocks of corn are up 127 percent, surplus wheat is up 181 percent...
WASDE Soybeans
soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 175 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest since 2013/14. Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $10.55 per bushe...
Thoughtless Londoners; Weird Biden Buckets; Money Against Roundup; SPS Abuse
Thoughtless Londoners First Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came out in support of India’s protesting farmers and now thousands protest in London against India's farming reforms. London has a lot of residents with Indian heritage, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to get h...
Water Investment
The extremely dry conditions in Argentina illustrate the low level of irrigation in many countries around the world. In terms of number of irrigated hectares, China is number one, followed by India and then the U.S. However, on a percent share of total agricultural land, Japan is by far number...
India’s Vegoil Gap
India’s production of major oilseeds increased by around 6 percent over the past decade at the same time its population advanced by 9 percent. Although New Delhi restricts vegetable oil imports, particularly soyoil, to protect its domestic crushing industry, imports are significant and ha...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 34.5 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month. ...
India’s Gain is Competitors’ Losses
India’s monsoon season has been abundant and has boosted hopes for bumper crops that will boost incomes and exports. This contrasts with urban areas that have been hit hard by COVID. There is also hope in New Delhi that the Biden Administration will be more generous than President Trump,...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Buys U.S. Soyoil; Shortage of Containers
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was another good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soybean products. If the pace of sales and exports continue it could be a record export year for the U.S. soybean sector. Net export sales of soybeans in the week ending 29 October totaled 1,530,5...
WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent; EU Food Fun
WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent Bad: The U.S. Congressional Research Service has concluded that trade war payments and COVID relief payments to farmers have likely exceeded WTO limits on such cash transfers. U.S. officials retort that that they are legal. However, the real problem is that the U.S. has...
Pasta versus Bread
Wheat is the largest and possibly oldest consumed food grain in the world, but its future is slowing down. Known as the staff of life, about 50 percent more wheat is consumed than rice, though about 18 percent of wheat destruction is from feed use. Bread is a predominant use of wheat, though pa...
Oilseed Highlights: China Soybean Purchases; Renewable Diesel; NOPA Crush; India Soy
China Continues to Buy U.S. Soybeans Because of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday USDA will not issue its weekly export sales report until tomorrow. However, it is clear Chinese importers have continued to purchase and import U.S. soybeans. Yesterday and today USDA indicated exporters had repo...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced ending stocks of U.S. soybeans for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks: U.S. soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, down 96 million on lower production and beginning stocks. Despite reduced supplies, soybean exports are raise...
Markets are Scary
The government of Narendra Modi is pushing through reforms to make Indian agriculture more market-oriented, but it has become a huge political fight within the country. Since independence, agriculture in India has been largely about government control of supply and thus the price received by hu...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans – USDA reduced the estimated yield from 53.3 to 51.9 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks for the 2020/21 season were also reduced. Ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month. Lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Wants Biotech Oilseeds and Higher Oil Tariffs
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was both positive and somewhat disappointing. Sales of soybeans for the upcoming marketing year were large, but not for 2019/20. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were disappointing. However, exports of soybeans and soymeal last week...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Highlights of WASDE for Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales highlights confirmed the week ending 6 August was a fantastic one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and a good one for export sales of U.S. soymeal. The large sales and exports of soybeans of last week have been followed by additiona...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA forecasts U.S. soybean production at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre is raised 3.5 bushels from l...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Currency Manipulation; Phase One Intentions; India Recognizing Ag Policy Constraints
Currency Manipulation Goldman Sachs is warning that the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency is at risk. Threats include inflation, political uncertainty and debt/slow economic growth related to the coronavirus. The U.S. dollar has fallen over 10 percent in value since t...
Cattlemen Dinged on Leather
The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed demand for fashion generally and this has reverberated to the leather industry. The hide, which is the largest component of slaughter’s byproducts, only adds about 3 percent to a rancher’s income but has nonetheless been important. A glut of hides in...
Phase One Status; Small Beer
Phase One Status China’s Foreign Ministry yesterday said it remains committed to the Phase One trade deal it reached with the U.S. but warned it will respond to “bullying” from Washington. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) calculates that China has purch...
WASDE Soyoil
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. USDA reduced global oilseed production by 2.0 million tons to 604.2 million on lower rapeseed, cottonseed, and soybean production.&...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20. With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Market Commentary
Monday’s CBOT trade was quiet with corn leading to the downside as funds continue to be net sellers. Soybean futures traded a mixed day with early short covering in soymeal offering support. Wheat future are looking for a bottom and may have found one with the market rallying 3-4 cents th...
Challenging COVID Subsidies; Wheat’s Weapon
Challenging COVID Subsidies There has been an increase in the use of agricultural subsidies by several countries and that is especially true as governments this year have been fighting the adverse impacts of the coronavirus. Increased subsidies by China and India have been successfully challeng...
Dairy Everywhere
Milk producers express more angst over the economic situation than other commodity producers, yet their production is largely inline with consumption. For the three largest global milk makers, India has actually increased consumption to match production. The other two large producers are the EU...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA estimates that U.S. soyoil production and ending stocks will be higher in 2020/21. Total global oilseed supply and demand forecasts are for slightly higher production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. The price forecast is unchanged for U.S. soyoil...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA raised the 2019/20 soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting increased domestic soybean meal use. The price forecast is unchanged for U.S. soymeal...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates higher U.S. soybean crush will fully offset an increase in beginning stocks and cause a decline in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 395 million bushels for the 2020/21 crop year. Global 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 96.3 million. The p...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India’s c...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India’s Vegoil Imports; Chinese Uncertainty
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights This week has been an active one for U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destination. USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 570,000 MT since 29 May. Of that amount 306,000 MT are reported as sold for unknown destinations and 264,000 MT haven bee...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy; U.S.- China Friction; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; EU Rapeseed
Argentine Farmers Continue to Reduce Soybean Sales Argentina’s farmers continue to hold back on selling their new crop of soybeans and selling less of their old crop compared to a year ago. Instead of selling they are holding on to their crop in expectation of a devaluation of the Argenti...
Falling Out of Favor
The EU is the largest consumer of rapeseed, followed by China, Canada and India. Its use in number three Canada and number four India has been rising, but it has declined in the EU and China. China has of course taken up soybeans, where consumption has been expanding at 4.42 percent per year. T...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Estimates – U.S. soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents from 2019/20...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Estimates - U.S. soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $10.00 from 2019/20. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Difficult Time for Soy Processors; Sunoil Versus Soyoil
U.S. Soy Export Highlights The week ending 30 April was not a good one for U.S. soy exports. Sales of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil for shipment in 2019/20 were all down from the previous week. Net soybean exports sales last week for 2019/20 shipment totaled 653,100 MT. That was down by 39 perce...
India Hurts its Own Dairy Market
There is a global abundance of grain and oilseeds and while meat animals are being euthanized due to a lack of slaughter capacity and total production is declining, dairy production has not faltered in the same way. This means that corn, DDGs and soymeal should increasingly find a home in dairy...
Enforcing WTO Limits; Notifying the WTO
Enforcing WTO Limits In this extraordinary time of global market turbulence, governments are taking measures to protect industry sectors including agriculture. For example, India has invoked the “peace clause” on its MSP levels (minimum support prices), basically notifying the...
Market Commentary
CBOT grains and livestock markets were mostly higher today with short covering the dominant theme in corn. Wheat futures sold off early in the day but found short covering support as well as some long buying interest in HRW futures while the soy complex was weaker for most of the day with soyme...
Back to the 1980’s
Economic norms are being dramatically changed by the coronavirus. Nearly 70 countries now restrict the export of medical supplies. There is also now a stronger push for government intrusion into agricultural markets. Some in Europe are calling for a return to intervention stocks to prop up pric...
Supply Policies; Covid Impacts
Supply Policies India’s pursuit of public stockholding of food surpluses is an old answer to an even older question – what policy to use to manage supply/demand imbalances. Then there is the issue of the externalities resulting from any of the chosen approaches. Just three countries...
WADSE Soyoil
USDA reduced the average U.S. soybean oil prices by 2 cents to 31.5 cents per pound. A notable change is a 1-million-ton reduction for palm oil production, mainly in Malaysia and Colombia, leading to a 19 percent year-over-year decline in global vegetable oil stocks...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 are mostly unchanged in the March WASDE. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.70 per bushel, down 5 cents. With soybean crush and exports projected at 2.1 billion bushels and 1.8 billion bushels, respecti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates The COVID19 outbreak continues to be the dominating force in commodity and equity markets around the world. With the virus curtailing travel and causing crude oil prices to plummet, commodities tied to oil (like soyoil) are receiving commensurate selling pressure. More broadly,...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a day in the red as coronavirus anxiety continues to haunt investors. Fear of betting against calamity is understandable since a story of outright disaster is easy to imagine. Rabobank predicts another four months of supply chain disruptions except that both nearby and more distan...
COVID-19 Calculations; Trade Policy Shorts
COVID-19 Calculations Equities have now plunged two days in a row over the coronavirus, but commodities fought back today rather than overreact. The COVID-19 virus is said to have put Italy close to recession, though German businesses are said to still be positive. That is the problem with curr...
Tax Tech Divide; Low Leverage on India
Tech Tax Divide G-20 finance ministers failed to make headway on the issue of high-tech company taxation and the prognosis is not good. The Czech Republic is the latest European company to debate imposing a high levy on global internet companies and its officials apparently brushed aside the th...
Unilateral Everything; Not So Very Big; Ugly Bailout
Unilateral Everything U.S. President Trump gets blamed for “America First” unilateralism but in fact it is practiced equally by all countries. Agricultural protectionism has been a dominant factor for decades and many countries extend this to fisheries and forestry. However, i...
India Offer to U.S.; Coronavirus and Super Tuesday; Concrete AB
India Offer to U.S. New Delhi and Washington would both like to have a trade deal by the time President Trump visits India on 24-25 February and India is making offers. According to Reuters, India has offered to reduce its tariff on chicken legs from 100 percent to 25 percent and make other con...
WASDE Soybeans
Target Europe; India’s Special Pass
Target Europe The frustration with Europe in the Trump Administration is palpable. China has been viewed as unfair competition but out of design. It was a poorer country overly granted concessions that must now be clawed back. By contrast, Europe is viewed as manipulative, taking what should be...
Fair and Equitable; Contrasts in Productive Attitudes; Authoritatively Wrong
Fair and Equitable In order to secure votes for the USMCA from Florida and Georgia politicians representing perishable fruit and vegetable growers, USTR promised subsequent action to impose the kind of seasonal import protections that failed to make it into the agreement just negotiated with Me...
India Needs Fruit and Vegetable Imports
Unfavorable weather this past summer caused a shortfall in food production that is now reverberating through the Indian economy. Food comprises half of India’s consumer price index and the cost of vegetables in this global number one vegetarian market has reportedly skyrocketed 61 percent...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean oil prices is raised 3 cents to 34.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soymeal price is reduced $5.00 to $305.00 per short ton. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Western Europe faced wet conditions for much of the fall/early winter, but that trend may be changing. The 15-day precipitation anomaly shows a drying trend for Spain, France, Italy, and the UK. Parts of eastern Europe received above-average precipitation during the past two weeks...
Coming Decade of Asian Growth to “Energize” Global Trade
Since the post-World War II era and the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the WTO, there has been one general rule of thumb: economic growth in developing countries drives commodity demand, be it for energy, raw materials or agriculture and fo...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil and Argentine Weather, India Tariffs, Brazil Soy Exports, Pakistan
Parts of Brazil Soybean Area in Need of Rain Most the soybean growing areas of Brazil are apparently in good condition with adequate rainfall. However, in two areas – Northeast Brazil and Rio Grande do Sul - soybeans are suffering from dryness and need rainfall. In northeastern Braz...
WASDE Soybeans
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Soybean Estimates: Soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $8.85 per bushel, down 15 cents. Global 2019/20 oilseed production is f...
Ag Review - November 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the next farm bill, the future of ag technology from artificial meat to drones, potential shifts in production to different crops, the outlook for U.S. – Chinese rel...
Scale and Sustainability
Sustainability has become an important attribute for agricultural systems with many activists falsely asserting that extensive farming has a smaller environmental footprint. Now research by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (ICTA), an organization focused on making small farms i...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy
SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...
Oilseed Highlights: Increased Brazilian Soymeal Exports, U.S. Domestic Soymeal Demand
U.S. Soymeal Exports to Face More Competition from Brazil The U.S. has faced aggressive competition in exporting soymeal from Brazil and Argentina for at least two decades. However, it appears the competition will intensify if the government of Brazil moves ahead with its plan to boost biodiese...
Alternative Crops
U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Brazil, and restricted markets due to the U.S. - China trade war. Still, natural fibers remain a buoyant market and cotton was always a fallba...
USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts
USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the Mexicans are not doing enough meaningful labor reform. Organized labor in the U.S. has taken a strong line, demanding actions by Mexico tha...
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports; Labor Blocks USMCA
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports Agriculture is the first sector receiving retaliation in trade disputes and there is no end in sight for trade wars. The Trump Administration contention that the U.S. has fared badly over the past 25 years of the WTO is not unique, it is largely shared by ma...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil, U.S. Soy Sales, Egypt Vegoil Tender, Argentine Election
India’s Vegoil Imports to Increase by 1 MMT Per Year B.V. Mehta, the head of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), says India imports of vegoil are expected to grow by an additional 1 MMT per year over the next five years. India already is the world’s top importer of v...
Morality Trade
Trade and industry are not just distorted by tariffs a la Donald Trump, but increasingly by sanctions intended to protect a political or moral principle. • India says it will not buy Malaysian palm oil because Kuala Lumpur disagreed with New Delhi’s actions in Kashmir. &b...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reports: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 30.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Reports: U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 107.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.6 billion bushels, down 83 million, mainly on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 46.9 bushels per acre, down...
Impeachment Impacts; WPI and Impeachment; U.S. – India Negotiations
Impeachment Impacts President Trump has tried to characterize his House Democratic antagonists as ignoring the needs of the American people by instead focusing all their time on impeachment. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi responded by saying they will continue their work on the USMCA agreement. Ind...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Yield, Argentine Soy Crushers, Soy Export Sales, Indian Soy
The Case for an Average U.S. Soybean Yield Below USDA’s Forecast USDA’s most recent forecast for the average U.S. soybean yield in 2019 is 47.9 bushels per acre (3.22 MT/hectare). That is below the average of the last 3 years. However, is it still too high? A look at the most recent...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA soyoil estimates: The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound...
Aggressive New EU Leadership; USMCA Labor Solution; Indian Ally
Aggressive New EU Leadership Under John Claude Juncker, the EU seemed confused on how to deal with Donald Trump, never having previously experienced such antagonism from an American leader. There was even a nonsensical trade agreement letter that was supposed to reduce the transatlantic tension...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Crop Tour; Too Much Rain in India; China's Soyoil; Canadian Oilseeds
U.S. Soy Export sales Highlights Today USDA released the weekly export sales report for the week ending 15 August. It indicated net sales of soybeans totaled 25,900 MT for MY 2018/19 shipment. Sales to Germany (68,500 MT), Indonesia (56,000 MT), Bangladesh (53,100 MT), Portugal (35,000 MT), Ita...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...
A New Normal for U.S.-China Trade?
The modern U.S.-China trade relationship has always been strained. President George W. Bush addressed this challenge by bringing China into the WTO to force its compliance with global trading rules. However, that didn’t work. While two-way trade did grow significantly, so did China&r...
Focus on New Products/Markets
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...
EU-Mercosur Wreck; No Indian Epiphany
EU-Mercosur Wreck EU leaders proudly announced a trade agreement with the Mercosur group of countries last month, but that is now in political jeopardy. Environmentalists have joined with farmers in opposing the plan. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume says that his country will not p...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S.-China Trade Update; Monsoonal Effect on India’s Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Sales
Hope for Breakthrough in Next Week’s U.S.–China Negotiations It is now confirmed that USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will meet next Tuesday in Shanghai with top Chinese trade negotiators to continue discussions aimed at ending the ongoing trade dispute. According to...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue
Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging one for the U.S. soy complex. However, soybean exports last week were the highest since the week ending 21 March 2019. The report indicated ne...
Barriers and Ag’s Future; Plurilateral Future
Barriers and Ag’s Future The Greens and other liberal groups in Europe have aligned their sights on turning European agriculture into a chemical-free, non-intensive industry. Rather than just attack from the European Parliament’s largest committee, the Environment Committee, they ha...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Notes: Global oilseed exports for 2019/20 are projected at 175.0 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2019/20 are reduced 10.7 million tons to 119.5 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. Th...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Notes: Soybean production for 2019/20 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28 Acreage report and on lower projected yields. Harvested area, forecast at 79.3 million acres, is down 4.5 million from last month.&nb...
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost; Varied GMO Approaches
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost Junnosuke Kobara at Nikkei provides analysis showing that while Japanese farmers may be few in number, they have outsized influence when voting as a bloc. The analysis is important because there is an Upper House election in two weeks, and the Abe government is negotiat...
Taking Stock of the Political Risks Facing Agriculture
Markets, industries and companies are constantly exposed to political risk (i.e., the impact that changes in policies and regulations can have on profitability). Indeed, virtually every major company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) includes some comment or disc...
Legs of War; No Cigar
Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. ...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars...
Planes, Trains and Automobiles; Death by Duties; Life with Meat
Planes, Trains and Automobiles Part of the focus on China pertains to the extent that the government controls the means of commerce. It is pervasive to be sure with more than a third of all business activity there estimated to be under such control. However, China is not alone. Western governme...
Future of Trump Trade Policy; Iced Coffee
Future of Trump Trade Policy The U.S. has lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers than most other countries. The theory of Trump trade policy has involved an eye for an eye – imposing tariffs to leverage more equitable treatment. It has not worked well. South Korea, Canada and Me...
Global Politics Weighs on Trade
Pundits are debating the impacts of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impressive reelection as well as the mood of his Bharatiya Janata Party. The question is whether the pre-election refusal to engage with the U.S. on stronger trade relations becomes a more permanent fixture. Even mo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market either dropped or remained stable in RUB expression but increased for some crops in USD expression due to the stronger ruble. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) and 2018 wheat grew to $184-187/MT FOB Bl...
China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling
China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his objectives elsewhere. Farmers, Republicans and the U.S. economy can only handle so much controversy at once. He was forced to end tariffs on steel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more significant. Quotes for 2019 12.5 percent protein wheat were within $182-186/MT FOB Black Sea, which makes the current average price for 2018 wheat...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Notes: The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19. The soybean crop is projected at 4,150 million bushels, down 394 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yie...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April-3 May 2019 There were only two working days during the week in review, but prices mostly followed a downward trend during that period. The average milling wheat export price fell to $210/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price declined to $187/MT CPT-Bla...
India’s Water; Politicized Trade; Trade Negotiation Outcomes
India’s Water India is still hoping to hold the Trump administration from removing it from eligibility for lower tariffs under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The latest message from New Delhi is that the government is looking at increasing imports from the U.S. to reduce its...
Oilseed Highlights: China-Canada Dispute; India’s Planting Intentions; Brazilian Truck Freight Rates
China Expanding Blockage of Imports from Canada It appears that China has raised the pressure on Canada to release the Huawei Technologies CFO. After she was arrested at the request of the U.S., the Chinese government began rejecting shipments of Canadian canola, ostensibly because of phytosani...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Low Argentine Soy Protein; Bearish Soybeans
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights U.S. export sales of soybeans and soymeal were up in the week ending 18 April, but soyoil sales and exports declined from the previous week. Net soybean export sales for 2018/19 shipment totaled 596,300 MT, mainly to unknown destinations (230,700 MT), China (212...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression due to the strengthening of the ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat sea export price fell to $222/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase price...
Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion
Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing country members of the WTO at a meeting next week in New Delhi to discuss how to boost their advantage in the organization. India and others co...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Palm Oil Tariffs; Canadian Canola; India’s Feed Sector
India’s Vegoil Refiners Push Lower Tariff Rates for Crude Palm Oil The Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India is pushing the government to lower the import tariff on crude palm oil to prevent further damaging of the domestic vegoil refining sector. The request is a result of surgin...
Can’t Walk the Talk; Limited Policy Options; On the Other Foot
Can’t Walk the Talk German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, and he is advising “all parties” to avoid any escalation in trade tensions. Herr Scholz is no doubt concerned that the Germ...
WASDE Soyoil
Soybean oil changes include increased imports and domestic disappearance for biodiesel and for food use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean oil price is projected at 28.0 to 30.0 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint...
WASDE Soybean
USDA estimates that U.S. soybean supply and use changes in the April WASDE include lower imports, higher seed use, and lower ending stocks. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, down 5 million. The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and d...
Policy Opportunities and Risks
Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...
Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts
Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes
Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...
WASDE Soybeans
According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report. With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. The season-average s...
WASDE Corn
According to USDA: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...
India Doubles Down; Too Green
India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its commitment on domestic supports. The case follows a similar challenge by the U.S. on other crops. The reaction from the Modi government is to a...
Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight
Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...
Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss
Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...
Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth
The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and other factors, however, that country is unlikely to be such a dominant factor in the global soy sector. As a result, other key markets must b...
Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions
Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...
E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances
There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In testimony before the House Ag Committee, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue suggested that EPA was unlikely to finish the waiver for year-round E15 use...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $236/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices fell to $207-209/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export price decreased to $221/MT F...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indo-American Trade War; Sino-American Impacts; Cars and Soybeans
Indo-American Trade War Unlike many other governments, New Delhi had been holding off on counterretaliation against the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The fear was that such a response would further inflame Washington’s threat of withdrawing Genera...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector
Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein
U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be shipped in the current marketing year. This brought total reported soybean sales to China since its delegation last visited Washington to 3.80...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January report (click here), the poultry sector’s margins continue to fall with the cost of production up at least 7.5 percent due to those price...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...
The Disruption Game
Trump administration officials meet with their Chinese counterparts the week of 7 January to begin trade negotiations. No one should expect a quick or easy agreement. As should now be transparent to all, Mr. Trump prefers total disruption as a negotiating style. In its ongoing effort to present...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week. Russia’s domestic prices were $2-6/MT higher in different regions. Meanwhile, it has exported approximately 23 MMT from the start of the campaign, and the range of estimates for the final total is 32-36.5 MMT. The export surplus rem...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s Corn Prices Too High; End Users Want Imports The Indian poultry, dairy, feed and starch sectors’s corn consumption has grown 1.1 MMT since 2014/15 to reach 19.63 MMT in 2017/18. The marketable surplus peaked in 2016/17 at 19.10 MMT, per the industry estimate. Erratic supplie...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA also reported additional sales yesterday and today of 1,403,000 MT to that country, bringing the two-week total to 2.964 MMT. Trade sources sug...
Ag Review - December 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. grain and soybean sectors, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...
Tale of the Tail; USMCA Strategy; Up in Smoke; Delhi Dirt
Tale of Trade Restrictions’ Tail China came into the U.S. market today for soybeans, but American farmers now realize they need to diversify their markets. Perhaps they’ve learned something from past trade wars. Consider the following: Soviet Grain Embargo 1) Before the Soviet Union...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA notes the following about soybeans: Soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 are unchanged from last month. With soybean exports and crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at a record 955 million bushels. The U.S. season- average soybean price for 2018/19 is forecast at...
Oilseed Highlights: China and U.S. Soybean Imports; WASDE and the Soy Sector
China Apparently Deciding How Many U.S. Soybean to Import At their meeting in Buenos Aires, President Trump was able to get a commitment from President Xi to import a substantial volume of U.S. soybeans and other commodities during the 90-day truce in the trade war. Hong Kong’s South Chin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA notes the following about wheat: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.0 billion with all the reduction in Hard Red Winter (HRW) on historically low exports for thi...
Immoderate Nutrition; Global Integration; Climate Recalculation
Immoderate Nutrition In 2010 the Obama administration sought to make the school lunch program comport with the government’s own nutrition guidelines – less fat, sugar and salt but more fresh fruits, vegetables and whole grains. School systems reacted by complaining the rules were in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India Oil Meal Exports Up Oil meal exports of 2.043 MMT for April-November were almost 10 percent higher versus 1.855 MMT for the same period last year. October 2018 was the start of the soymeal season, and nearly 0.367 MMT were exported in the two-month period since then, up 32.73 percen...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Prices Continue to Rise; Imports Required In the past 15 days, prices in the key corn production/consumption hubs have risen 6.7-9.6 percent and are 29 percent higher than last year. Two possible reasons for this are the higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP) announced by the government of In...
Cash-Settled Wheat Futures
As trading of agricultural crop futures contracts evolved in the 19th century at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), there were futures markets for wheat, corn, oats, rye and hay. In the 20th century, trading in the hay and rye markets diminished so much that the CBOT eventually dropped them. Ho...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sensitive Sugar Situation in India India has so far contracted to export approximately 1 MMT of sugar against the government’s fixed target of 5 MMT. Despite dropping 3.49 percent in the past month, however, the Indian sugar price is still 21.06 percent higher than the world price, which...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Prices Remain Higher, Curbing Export Potential The government of India (GOI) estimated the khariff (October harvest) corn production at 21.47 MMT on 26 September 2018, 1.23 MMT more than the final estimate for that season’s crop last year. The increase is despite the uneven distribut...
New Trade War Weapon
Only twice has a country filed a challenge in the WTO against another’s required notification of its domestic ag subsidies. The first was in May when the U.S. did so against India’s report on market support for wheat and rice during MY 2010/11-2013/14. The second time was yesterday...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s November estimate for 2018/19 is for South America to capture more of China’s soybean market while the United States is likely to capture more market share in the rest of the world, particularly in the second half of the marketing year when those imports typically trend highe...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s November estimate for 2018/19 protein consumption growth rate for China is reduced, which is reflected in the limited number of U.S. export sales this fall. Although sales to China are minimal, strong sales to other markets are expected to continue, which is likely to result...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s November estimate for 2018/19 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower production, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4,600 million bushels, down 90 million on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, d...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soy Subsidy; Soy Changes in WASDE; U.S. Soy Export Sales
China’s Heilongjiang Province Doubles Subsidy for Soybeans Heilongjiang Province, China’s top soybean and corn producer, has doubled its subsidy for growing soybeans to 320 yuan/mu ($330/acre or $815/hectare at the current exchange rate) as a way to boost production. To further enco...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Russia and Syria are reportedly about to cooperate on a wheat hub in the latter country for the Middle Eastern wheat import markets. This project will mean an expansion of ports there with added grain storage and transshipment facilities along...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Leveraging India; Defining the Transatlantic Problem; Super Stink
Leveraging India A U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum scheduled for this week has been postponed due to the lack of progress on bilateral trade negotiations. India has bureaucratic, economic and political constraints to granting improved market access for U.S. farm products and pharmaceuticals. Howe...
Demonopolization; Bogeyman Strikes Again; False Metrics
Demonopolization China steadfastly refuses to reduce the number of state-owned enterprises operating in its economy. This reflects its internal politics and patronage. However, it might want to look at similar demonopolization efforts in other countries. As part of its economic reform, Sa...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India’s Sugar Production Commences, Ethanol Tender Under Scrutiny The sugarcane crush season has started in India with a few mills beginning operations in Maharashtra last week. There are still some issues to be resolved before all mills are crushing, including the labor wages for harv...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Oilseeds; China and Indian Rapeseed Meal; U.S. Soy Inspections and Trial Yields
Dry Weather Reducing India’s Oilseed Production There were expectations earlier this year that India would produce a significantly larger oilseed crop. However, poor rainfall late in the growing season has made it clear that production of soybeans, peanuts and other crops will be lower th...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...
WASDE Soyoil
October estimate is U.S. soybean oil price unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound. Despite lower global oilseed production, increased beginning stocks, mainly in the United States, results in a 2.0 million-ton increase to global oilseed ending stocks to 123.8 million. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Processors’ Supply Issue; EU Soymeal; Indian Protein Meal; China and GMOs
Brazilian Processors Squeezed by China’s Soybean Purchases Despite a record soybean crop in 2018, Brazil’s processors are not having the banner year that might be expected. This is because 69.2 MMT were exported during February-September with a record amount, almost the entire volum...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soy Exports; U.S. Soy Yield Forecast; U.S. Soy Exports
India Raises Minimum Price for Rapeseed Faced with farmers protesting low commodity prices, the government of India (GOI) yesterday boosted the minimum prices of winter crops, and that of rapeseed was raised 5 percent to 42,000 rupees/MT. At the current exchange rate of 73.1 rupees per USD, tha...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Soymeal; Argentine Soybean Exports; U.S. Soy Export Sales
India’s Quest to Export More Soymeal Threatens Domestic Availability India’s government and soybean processing industry are pressing China to resume imports of Indian soymeal. The chairman of India’s Soybean Processors Association indicates this would allow the country&r...
Walk the Trade Talk; Monopoly Power
Walk the Trade Talk President Trump gave a buffoonish speech at the U.N. today, which makes it easier to mock his pronouncements. However, there is no shortage of hypocrisy from those critiquing his America First proclamations. French President Emmanuel Macron denounced the rise of nationalism...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Soy Imports; Soy Sales to Argentina; Indian Rapeseed Meal; Soy Export Sales
EU Soybean Imports Up, Soymeal Down The EU Commission today reported soybean imports totaled 2.8 MMT as of 16 September and from the beginning of the current marketing year (July-June), up 11 percent from 2.5 MMT at the same time a year ago. It also indicated EU soymeal imports totaled 3.6 MMT...
Taj Mahal Chicken Coups; Starving for Health; Climate and Trade Wars; E15 Push
Taj Mahal Chicken Coups California voters are once again set to roil agricultural producers elsewhere in the nation as they vote 6 November on Proposition 12. Pushed by animal rights advocates who are outspending opponents, it would mandate specific growing conditions such as enlarged spaces fo...
U.S.-India Trade Negotiations
According to President Trump, his take-no-prisoners trade strategy has spurred promising trade talks with India. He said while on the stump in South Dakota, “India called us the other day. They said they would like to start doing a trade deal, first time.” India’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS Afghanistan has received the first lot of Pakistan’s 40,000 MT wheat donation. The shipment of just under 400 MT was delivered at the same time the new Pakistani foreign minister was visiting the country. The Middle East/African region&rs...
Sino-American Trade War II; Undermining China; Most Challenging; More FDA Plaudits
Sino-American Trade War II U.S. President Donald Trump says he will impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China, perhaps this week. He is tempering his attack by cutting the tariffs from an earlier 25 percent to just 10 percent. The Chinese have responded by saying...
Trade Policy Mixer; Developing Country Risks; Farm Bill and Crisis
Trade Policy Mixer China: President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the Treasury Department to move forward with punitive duties on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China. No one is expecting the trade war to end anytime soon. Iran: The EU is creating a “special purpos...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; Argentina’s 2019 Soybean Crop; U.S. Export Sales
Plentiful Soybean Supplies USDA yesterday confirmed the U.S. will harvest a record soybean crop once again in 2018, forecasting the average national yield at 52.8 bushels/acre (3.55 MT/hectare) and a record production of 4.693 billion bushels (127.74 MMT). Even though it raised the estima...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates that soybean production is projected at a record 4,693 million bushels, up 107 million on a record yield forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are raised with higher production only partly offset by lower beginning stocks. The 2018/19 U.S. season-average...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are raised 4.7 million tons on a 3.4-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. The Russian crop is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest results to date in the winter wheat region and continued excellent weather in the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...
Half-NAFTA Not; SPS Highlights
Half-NAFTA Not The Trump White House believes it has Canada cornered, but deft lobbying of the U.S. Congress by Ottawa makes it unlikely that a solely U.S.-Mexico trade agreement would be approved on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump and his counterpart Justin Trudeau have carved out positions...
Trump’s NAFTA Problems; India Clean Up; European Insecurity; Venezuelan Holodomor
Trump’s NAFTA Problems There is a lengthy list of problems and hurdles related to the Trump Administration’s trade agreement with Mexico but here are a few to think about: Substance Puffery: When it comes to agriculture, the new agreement is weak beer. The Administration&rsquo...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
Outlook for Negotiation Week; Notable Global Policy Developments
Outlook for Negotiation Week China-U.S.: Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen meets with U.S. Treasury Under Secretary David Malpass in an effort to set a course for resolving the trade war. Treasury’s involvement may be related to the fact that the tariff war is causing macroec...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the 29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
Interstate Pig Rivalry; Not Sweet
Interstate Pig Rivalry Farmers receive some state-level protections from NIMBYism (not in my backyard) in that someone cannot generally move next to a farm and then complain about odors. However, what about a new pig farm opening next door to a pre-existing landowner? Federal courts have been r...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Costs; U.S. Soybean Forecast; Soymeal Market Access in India
Higher Costs and Lower Profits for Brazilian Soybean Farmers in 2019 An analyst at Brazil’s investing banking firm Itaú BBA, Guilherme Bellotti, is predicting that the country’s soybean farmers will see higher input costs and lower profits in the next growing season versus th...
Naha Tug-of-Trade; Corporate Food Fascism; Unpronounceable but Safe; Pleasantly Low Hypoxia
Naha Tug-of-Trade U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi meet next week (9 August) in Washington for the first time under the “free, fair and reciprocal” (FFR) trade talk framework established by their bosses. T...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It’s been an interesting week with the following highlights: - USDA’s $12 billion farm rescue plan (income redistribution) didn’t find many supporters. Details of how the cash will be spread around are still very sketchy. Even some of the major commodity groups continue to sug...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Glut Supply of Milk Prompts GOI to Offer Export Incentive When the state government of Maharashtra reduced the the cooperatives’ purchase price of milk from farmers to Rs.18/lit, a drop of over 21.73 percent from Rs.23/lit, private players lowered the prices offered to farmers outside of...
Ag Review - July 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Crusher Woes; Pakistan’s Soy Imports; India’s Vegoil Situation…
Chinese Soy Crusher Files for Bankruptcy The Chinese firm Shandong Sunrise Group, a soybean importer and processor as well as an independent petroleum refiner, filed for bankruptcy last Friday. It attributed this action to losses in crush margins. Crushers in Shandong Province are currently los...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Policy Changes May Not Ease Pressure on Sugar Sector Immediately Changes in ethanol prices, including that of B-Heavy molasses as an input for making the fuel, do not mean that India will become self-sufficient in supplies and fulfil the demand of the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP). Fur...
Oilseed Highlights: July WASDE; U.S. Soy Sales
Key Oilseed Highlights in USDA WASDE Report To say USDA made major changes to its supply and distribution forecasts for the soybean sector in today’s WASDE report is an understatement. Following are key highlights from the report: MY 2017/18 U.S. soybean exports were raised by 20 million...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...
Tariffs, but It’s NTBs; Measuring War; Other Distortions; Bye-Bye Pruitt
Tariffs, but It’s NTBs Additional retaliatory tariffs were applied by Mexico today, and another round of U.S. tariffs will be applied to China at the stroke of midnight. Soon there will be more retaliatory tariffs and, presumably, counter-retaliatory tariffs. Two-thirds of U.S. agricultur...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Higher MSP; Soy Updates for Brazil and China
India Raises Minimum Support Price for Oilseeds and Other Crops The government of India (GOI)yesterday announced new higher minimum support prices (MSPs) for soybeans and other crops. The increases averaged about 25 percent versus only 3-4 percent in past years. Because of upcoming elections in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Rupee and Higher Input Costs Make Agriculture a Tough Choice Two developments that the government of India (GOI) had not anticipated are higher crude oil prices and the rupee falling against the U.S. dollar. In discussions with the U.S. regarding market access, India moved to impose saf...
Fixing Farm Supports; Not Stumbling; Saving GMOs; De-Globalization
Fixing Farm Supports The best defense is an offense, and China and India are demanding that the rich countries reduce their farm support payments. The demand is rather rich given that producer support estimates (PSEs) have fallen in the rich countries at the same time they’ve skyrocketed...
Ag Review - June 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. meat industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Trade Fight Dustup; Transshipping Adds Cost; Wetlands Reform
Trade Fight Dustup Constituencies impacted by retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries are starting to doubt the wisdom of Trump trade policy. The business community’s angst with Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach is palpable. The U.S. Senate Finance Committee will consider legis...
Ag Subsidies Reform; EPA Disappoints; Interstate Wreck
Ag Subsidies Reform China and India are asking the WTO to immediately reduce the Amber Box agricultural subsidies that have been historically utilized by the rich countries but not developing countries. They call for addressing the asymmetry between the developed and developing countries. The l...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Tariffs; Brazil’s Soy Area; U.S. Biodiesel, India’s Soybeans; Ukrainian Rapeseed
China Eliminates Animal Feed Tariffs for Five Countries The Chinese government announced today that it will eliminate tariffs on imports of soybeans, soymeal, rapeseed, and fishmeal from Bangladesh, India, Laos, South Korea and Sri Lanka on 1 July. It apparently believes that this will help mee...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Soymeal Prices May Move Up if Exports Continue Soybean and soymeal prices moved lower last week but had some upward movement near its end, and they are stable now due to slow poultry sector demand as well as international cues. However, world prices are still lower. The Indian soybean s...
Trade War Endgame; Laudable Reorg; Mixt
Trade War Endgame Starting the trade war was “easy” for Mr. Trump, sustaining it will become more difficult for domestic political reasons. That fact was revealed by this week’s Senate Finance Committee hearing during which its members expressed skepticism about the trade acti...
Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Prices; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Exports
Falling Palm Oil Prices Reach Two-Year Low Palm oil prices are declining because of anemic demand and the market turmoil caused by the U.S.-China trade dispute. Today the September palm oil futures price on the Malaysian futures exchange fell for the fourth consecutive day to the equivalent of...
Predictable Trade War; Owed Freebies; Jurisdictional Meat; Sweet Natural Duplicity
Predictable Trade War After the Shanghai Composite Index plunged in value, the headlines say that the Chinese were “caught off guard” by President Trump’s announcement of counter-retaliatory tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports. Wall Street was also supposedly surprised...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Tariff Impact on Upper Midwest; India’s Soyoil Tariff
Chinese Tariffs Impact on Upper Midwest Soybean Farmers Barring a settlement to the current trade dispute, China is expected to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans effective 6 July. It appears the situation may intensify after President Trump yesterday threatened to implement additional...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Sales; U.S. Soy; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; Brazil’s Strike Aftermath
China Sells Reserve Soybeans China’s National Grain Trade Center today announced the government sold 192,324 MT of reserve stock soybeans at auction. They were sold at 3,043 yuan/MT ($476/MT), only 1.4 percent above the minimum sales price of 3,000 yuan/MT. The volume sold was approximate...
U.S.-Canada Road Forward; Limits of Tariffs; Real Ag Problems
U.S.-Canada Road Forward Donald Trump initially thought that U.S. agriculture was a problem for him since the sector was so paranoid about trade retaliation that it cried out loudly for him to “do no harm.” Now he has come to realize that it presents some of the best examples of pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates this month that U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 will include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush for 2017/18. Higher global soybean production is partly offset by lower rapeseed an...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Exceeds Estimates; Open Market Prices Drop As of 4 June 2018, 34.724 MMT of wheat had been procured for 2018/19 by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies, 8.51 percent more than the government of India’s (GOI’s) fixed target of 32 MMT. For reference...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Tariffs; China’s Drought; Brazil’s Soybean Exports
India Expected to Raise Vegoil Tariff Rates Undisclosed sources in India’s government have told Reuters that officials are considering a hike in the tariff rates for some edible oils in the next few days. They apparently referenced soyoil, rapeseed and sunflower oil specifically. The curr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn and Soymeal Exports Could Keep Prices High Indian corn is competitive and finding markets in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Vietnam continues to import Indian corn in containers at $220-225/MT delivered. This price is compared to U.S. and South American corn at $230/MT delivered. Bangladesh impor...
Macron Solution; NAFTA Ultimatum; Regulated Market; Sweet it Ain’t
Macron Solution French President Emmanuel Macron correctly reacted to the U.S. imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum by calling for an overhaul of the WTO. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that “everyone agrees that the WTO needs to be reformed.” Neither, though, of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...
Ag Review - May 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Sugar Production Keeping Prices Low India’s sugar production could reach 31.5 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association (ISMA). The mills in Uttar Pradesh are still crushing sugarcane and may continue to do so until the end of the month. The higher-than-normal pr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 May 2018 Rising minimal prices on the domestic market, driven in part by high demand from processors and growing prices for processed products, caused average prices to increase. The average milling wheat export price fell $2/MT to $213/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s Vegetable Oil Demand and Imports Both Higher in 2017/18 India’s overall vegetable oil imports reached 15.573 MMT for 2017/18 (March-April), a 9.53 percent increase from 14.217 MMT the previous year. This included 15.181 MMT of edible oil and 0.392 MMT of nonedible oil, up fr...
First Ever CN; KL Opportunity
First Ever CN The Trump administration is showing that it plans to be aggressive on trade in unique ways. Previous administrations have imposed tariffs on imports (Obama on tires, G.W. Bush on steel), but this week the U.S. became the first country to use the WTO’s counter-notification (C...
WASDE Soy Highlights; Soy Export Sales
May WASDE Soy Highlights Today USDA released its May WASDE report, which includes its first forecasts for MY 2018/19. While almost certain to vary from what actually will occur, they do provide a better understanding of USDA analysts’ perspective. First, following are key changes in...
WASDE Soybeans
The 2018/19 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2017/18. The soybean crop is projected at 4,280 million bushels, down 112 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. With higher beginning...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soy Imports; Damaged Ship Berth; Argentine Rain
VAT Reduction Causes Chinese Soybean Imports to Decline in April Chinese soybean imports fell to only 6.9 MMT last month, down 13.7 percent from April 2017 and less than analysts’ projections of about 8.5 MMT. The main cause of the decline was a reduction in the value-added tax (VAT) on s...
Asynchrony and Hypocrisy; Amara’s Law
Asynchrony and Hypocrisy The WTO held a full membership meeting today at which Director General Roberto Azevêdo urged members to tackle systemic issues. Chief among his and a cadre of countries’ concerns was U.S. “protectionism” and Washington’s blockage of appoint...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the government for an intervention. The arrears owed to farmers had reached $2.98 billion at the end of March 2018, and the government of India (G...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Inspections; Canadian Plantings; Tighter Global Soyoil Stocks
Higher USDA Soybean Inspections Last Week USDA reported on Monday that 679,379 MT of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, up 44.3 percent from the previous week. Of that amount, 216,040 MT were destined to China. It was notable that 115,652 MT were out of the Gulf as relatively fe...
Import, Not Just Export; Missing Consumers; Attack on Scale; Miscellaneous Policy Shorts
Import, Not Just Export The Indian government is developing a new national agricultural trade policy that is intended to boost the country’s export of food and agricultural products. Exports have been variable since, under the Essential Commodities Act, the government imposes export restr...
Stats Canada Surprises!
Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola acreage is forecast to drop 7 percent from 2017, well below the trade’s pre-report guesses. This is likely the result of last year&rsqu...
Ag Review - April 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Wheat Procurement Could Be Problematic In the first three weeks of the wheat procurement drive, state and central agencies have acquired more than 20 MMT at the set price of Rs.17,350/MT ($262/MT), which is higher than last year. Procurement is up in Uttar Pradesh and Haryana against la...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; Indian Monsoon; Braziian Soy Production
NOPA’s March Soybean Crush a Record Monthly High Yesterday the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its monthly crush report for March. It indicated 171.858 million bushels (4.68 MMT) of soybeans were crushed, up 18.8 million bushels (10.9 percent) from March 2017 and t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
Senator Chamberlain; Catharsis and Anecdote; Go India!
Senator Chamberlain The Trump administration proposes to compensate American farmers for any adverse fallout from its efforts to secure greater trading rights abroad. With the courage of a multi-decade member of Congress, U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), chairman of the Senate Agriculture C...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report
Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. applies a similar tariff on imports from that country has caused soybean importers and exporters to quickly realign sales a...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - primarily due to Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway strikes in France that have created a logistics problem in moving grain. This has been further compounded by a sudden port worker strike in Rou...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Drip, Drip, Drop; Populist Modi
Drip, Drip, Drop USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue told his audience at Michigan State University this week that the Trump administration’s trade policy approach will not sabotage the agriculture sector and that it will not “be a pawn in this issue.” With China’s announcement...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Shows Deficit While the government of India (GOI) has forecast the 2017/18 soybean crop at 11.39 MMT, the trade and industry is projecting 7.2-7.5 MMT. Domestic crushers have procured 0.1 MMT from various African origins (mainly Ethiopia) in recent months as th...
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Tough and Crazy; Ethanol Rescue; Functional Congress; Export only Agriculture
Tough and Crazy The EU issued its 10 pages of proposed retaliation products in response to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and now U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström are discussing “mutually acceptable outcomes&rd...
China Differences; Might at WTO; Hiding Behind the Law
China Differences A hog slaughter plant was rejected in the U.S. farm state of Nebraska for not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) reasons, but scale production is viewed totally differently in China. Three companies there have formed a “strategic cooperation deal” to produce 4 million Landrace...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is adjusting its ration card system, raising the value from $1.17/month to $2.78/month due to increases in local prices. It is also going to issue the cards by population segment to avoid some of the current problems with misusage. Most...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have continued to fall. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) spot price is down and expected to move lower as harvest nears. Old sto...
Moral-Based Trade II; Data Dump; Conference Fever
Moral-Based Trade II The European Parliament (EP) has passed a resolution calling for the inclusion of gender equality goals in free trade agreements. As WPI has noted in the past, the addition of labor and environmental obligations in trade agreements highlighted the risk of a slippery slope i...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian and Chinese Soybean Imports
India Importing Record Volume of Soybeans High domestic soybean prices in India coupled with a smaller domestic crop in 2017 is causing processors in that country to import a record volume of soybeans this year. Reports indicate Indian firms have contracted to import up to 100,000 MT since Dece...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good recovery in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the sugar industry expects 2017/18 sugar production to reach 29.2 MMT, a record. That is...
Market Commentary
President Trump signed a proclamation this afternoon establishing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum over the objection of many Republicans in Congress and the U.S. business community, excluding steel companies. Canada, the largest exporter of steel to the U.S., and Mexico will be temporari...
Why Trump Wants Trade War; Beggar Farm Policy; Heavy Pruning for Finance
Why Trump Wants Trade War The U.S. media is emphasizing the impending harm from steel and aluminum tariffs to be imposed by President Donald Trump. These include Europe’s threat to retaliate with tariffs on Kentucky bourbon, Wisconsin motorcycles and Hollywood movies. Swedish Prime Minist...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Drought;, U.S. Soybean Sales to China; Indian Tariffs
No Relief for Argentine Crops Some meteorologists indicate this year’s summer growing season is turning out to be the driest in Argentine history. The only saving grace is that the soils were mostly very moist at planting time, and it will be a while before the drought’s impact is e...
Trump Ready for Trade War
During the 2016 presidential campaign, we noted that one key of the Trump Trade Doctrine was that trade policy must “strengthen the U.S. manufacturing base.” Also noted was that there was no mention of agricultural commodities or services, two of the largest export sectors in the U...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Second Advance Production Estimates Project Record Food Grain Production The government of India (GOI) released the Second Advanced Estimates for Agricultural Production on 27 February 2018, which projected the country’s total food grain production in 2017/18 at 277.49 MMT, 2.94 MMT more...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine and Brazilian Soy Crops; U.S. Export Sales; India’s Oilseeds
Forecast for Argentine Soybean Crop Reduced Again The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today lowered its forecast for the Argentine 2018 soybean crop from 47 MMT to 44 MMT because of the ongoing drought. It indicated conditions continue to worsen and seemed to suggest there could be a further reduct...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices Up, but DDGS Not Available as Alternative The Soybean Oil Processors Association (SOPA) has again trimmed its estimate for India’s 2017/18 soybean production (harvest in October-November 2017), reducing the previous forecast of 9.15 MMT to 8.35 MMT. The government of India...
Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation
Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...
Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious
Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar from 50 percent to 100 percent. The increase was a demand from the sugar industry as sugar prices were below the cost of production. Both carry...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Forecast Revisions; Brazil’s Weather Woes; Export Sales
USDA Cuts Forecast for U.S. Soybean Exports Again and Revises Other Estimates Today USDA unsurprisingly further reduced its forecast for U.S. soybean exports in 2017/18 by an additional 60 million bushels (1.633 MMT) to 2.1 billion bushels (57.16 MMT). With no other changes, the result was a 60...
WASDE Soybeans
2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. Wit...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy; South American Transport Problems; Ukrainian Soy; India Soymeal
Critical Week for Argentine Soybeans Weather forecasters are predicting substantial rains across Argentina’s driest areas on Friday and Saturday of this week with some showers at the end of the following week. However, the predicted rainfall is far from certain as are the amounts and area...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Corn Area; Prices Stable but High The 2017/18 rabi (summer crop) corn area, which will be harvested in March-April 2018, totaled 1.5739 million hectares as of 19 January. While that is marginally higher than the 1.535 million hectares of a year ago, it is slightly lower than the seaon...
Trade Policy Confusion; Meat Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi decried protectionism at the World Economic Forum today. In a speech widely perceived to be an attack on Donald’s Trump’s “America First” policy, Modi follows similar exhortations by Chinese President Xi Jinping...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s supply ministry has announced that the government’s wheat storage capacity will be expanded to 3.9 MMT by 2022. While first announced last fall, this now seems to be “officially” approved. Some of it seems to be...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Continue to Tumble Sugarcane processors (mills) should pay farmers for their stocks within two weeks of the harvest/purchase, and the government of India (GOI) had increased the prices in 2017 for sugar year 2017/18 (October-September). There is a lag period as the sugar is process...
Standard-Less Identity; Heritage Milk; On Ice; India Pipe Dream
Standard-Less Identity The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued a new strategic roadmap that indicates it will revisit the standards of identity for various food products. This could involve tough decisions about whether plant-based drinks can be called milk as well as the issue of clean...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The first shipment of 2,200 MT of Indian wheat has arrived in Kabul, Afghanistan via Iran’s Chabahar port. Another 60,000 MT are reported to be in Chabahar, the first lot of an estimated 1.1 MMT destined for various locations in Afghanis...
WASDE Soymeal
"Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate.... Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly of...
WASDE Soybeans
"Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly offset by lower production for Argentina and the United States. The Brazil soybean crop is inc...
WASDE Corn
"This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and greater stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million from last month as an increase in yield to a recor...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Bumper Wheat Crop Expected, but Imports Still Cheaper Available records indicate the area under wheat in 2017/18 totals 28.3 million hectares, down about 4.77 percent from last year and less than the 30.2 million hectares planted under normal circumstances. While the area is smaller in Uttar Pr...
WASDE Wheat
"Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Wheat feed and residual use f...
Government Skewing; BPA Reversal; Conceivably Paris/NAFTA; AgTech Invest
Government Skewing The Indian government proclaims food insecurity and demands the right to build a domestic food stockpiling mechanism. At the same time, the country consistently runs a large food trade surplus. Now New Delhi is planning a program to increase the production and export of high-...
Cooperative Evolution; Safety in Numbers; How Sweet?; CAP Cuts; Banning Competitors
Cooperative Evolution Farmer cooperatives in the U.S. were historically conflicted between serving their farmer members and operating as competitive business enterprises. The recent change in U.S. tax law favoring cooperatives comes at an odd time because industrialization in agriculture has fo...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Soy Updates; Minnesota Soybeans; Indian Soymeal
Rains Impacting South American Soy Crops Farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso are beginning to harvest early-maturing soybeans, but almost daily rainfall is preventing any progress. There have been several days of stoppage in some areas, while they are only able to harvest for a few ho...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Supplies Keeping Sugar Prices in Check India’s sugar production reached 10.3 MMT as of 31 December 2017, a 25.36 percent increase from the total 8.2 MMT on the same date in 2016. It totaled 3.8 MMT in Maharashtra, 3.33 MMT in Uttar Pradesh and 1.62 MMT in Karnataka. This boost corr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s government has announced that the official customs exchange rate will remain at the current level of 16 EGP against the USD for January 2018; the actual currency rate is now about 17.69 EGP to the USD. A steady rate certainly helps grain importer...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices on the Rise Demand for soymeal and soyoil is robust, but the soybean supply is limited and slow. The government of India’s (GOI’s) first advance estimates in September 2017 put soybean production at 12.217 MMT. However, the trade’s estimate was much lower...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Under Pressure as Production Rises India’s 2017/18 sugar production totaled 6.94 MMT as of 15 December 2017, up 5.346 MMT (29.81 percent) versus the same date last year. The sugar manufacturing/cane crushing was delayed in 2016, and it began this year on 1 October. With highe...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Issues; India’s Vegoil Imports
Argentina Apparently Seeks U.S. Deal Argentina’s decision to raise the export tax on biodiesel from zero to 8 percent (see Ag Perspectives, 14 December) is apparently an effort to get the U.S. to eliminate or reduce the countervailing and antidumping duties imposed on such shipments...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Cotton Production Expected; Prices Slowly Moving Up: The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB)’s estimate of India’s 2017/18 cotton production is 37.7 million bales (170 kg each), up 9.27 percent from 34.5 million bales in 2016/17.It is projected to be down in states that include Mahar...
UN-ification Drives Sectoralism
India coalesced the developing nations in 2001 and forced the rich countries to accept the “Development” part in the WTO’s Doha Development Round. Now that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has figured out that development as pushed by India means the rich countries...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Import Duty Helps Boost Oilseed Prices The increase in the import duty on vegetable oils, which the government of India (GOI) imposed in mid-November 2017 as farmers complained that oilseed prices were below the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), appears to be having the desired results. The...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy; Indian Soymeal, etc.
Brazilian Farmers Investing More in Soybeans, Less in Corn Because of low corn prices and the necessity to treat soybeans for Asian rust, farmers in Mato Grosso as well as other states have apparently decided that it is wiser to attempt to maximize soybean yields than use their limited capital...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Dryness; ITC Confirms Duties on Biodiesel; Indian Rapeseed
Argentina Dryness Currently the Soybean Trade’s Key Focus It is well known by observers of the global soybean market over the last decade that one of the key factors to watch is the weather situation in Argentina, which has a history of being quite variable from one year to next. Pe...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Sowing Slow; Higher Prices Remain Stable The rabi wheat sowing has reached 11.066 million hectares thus far, down 12.41 percent from 12.635 million hectares at the same time last year. The government of India (GOI) had doubled the wheat import duty in early November (near the start of the...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most populous country. They are likely suffering from what the great psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman called focusing illus...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall After Bullish USDA Reports; Panic Not Finished in Cattle Markets
The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports for soybeans. Further, they saw little reason to keep buying corn and wheat amid large on-farm stocks and amply supplied global balance she...
Duck Data
The USDA attache’s office in New Delhi reports that India issued revised import rules last month for premium duck meat. The tariff was reduced from 30 percent to 5 percent, and standards were announced for selling the meat to at least three-star hotels and restaurants approved by the gove...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
Targeting India’s Rice Subsidies
At the behest of the domestic rice industry, U.S. House Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) asked the U.S. International Trade Commission to conduct Section 332 fact-finding investigation of global competitiveness in rice, which the industry claims is skewed by unfair trade prac...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
Eyes Open on India
USDA is leading a trade mission to India, noting that it is 1.4 billion people or 18 percent of the global population but accounts for less than one percent of U.S. agricultural exports. Average tariff rates tend to be higher in developing countries and lower in developed countries. But India&r...
India’s Rice Squeeze
The New Delhi playbook for staple crops is to offer farmers a generous Minimum Support Price (MSP), donate the extra output to the nation’s poor, and then dump on the world market any surpluses that would otherwise depress domestic prices. India’s rice surplus was around a quarter o...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks, up 25 million on higher yields, to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price was reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cen...
White Commodities Focus
White commodities is an American euphemism for three crops, cotton, rise, and sugar, that are all white in color and each have statutory programs considered complex or unique. They are generally produced in the U.S. south, and their traits include: Cotton: A chemically intensive crop with the l...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA kept their estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels for U.S. soybean ending stocks. The estimate for U.S. production was reduced 42 million on lower yields, but beginning stocks were increased and soybean exports reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion (due to increased competition fro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
India’s Day in the Sun; Rapporteur Inflation
India’s Day in the Sun The G20 meeting occurs this coming weekend in the New Delhi convention center and India is making the most of its central role in the event. Although Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be skipping the event, they may not be missing...
Bent, Not Broken
The recent BRICS+ meeting in South Africa highlighted some of the animosity toward a world order long dominated by countries comprising just a minority of the world’s population. However, the Western model is difficult to undo for many reasons. From the standpoint of its architects, it pr...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to global GDP than the G7 (30.7 percent). They also comprise 26.7 percent of the world's land surface and 41.5 percent of the global population...
Feast or Famine
The COVID supply chain meltdown created anxiety over the availability of agricultural inputs. This compelled many operators to look forward and lock in their needs for 2023, often at elevated prices. This buy-high insurance marker has been met with ammonia prices that have now fallen by 50 perc...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
India's Prolific Agriculture
India is the world’s ninth largest agricultural exporter. The Biden Administration wants to negotiate with India on agricultural trade access, but New Delhi has a good thing going. Its agricultural trade surplus with the world has been growing, and more than a third of the reason is trade...
New Era for Sweet
The world’s two largest sugar producing and exporting nations, Brazil and India, also use part of their output to make ethanol. Brazil has a long history of doing so but it has not changed the relative share of sugar that is exported. By contrast, and as predicted, India’s share of...
Exporting Food Insecurity
New Delhi is always one of the first capitals to raise the issue of food insecurity in international fora. It concurrently argues that agricultural subsidies by rich countries worsen global food insecurity while its own policies and subsidies are designed to lessen the problem. But rich countri...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA reduced their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, 50 million lower than last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $375.00...
Fungibility for Food Security
There is speculation that rice prices will increase due a smaller crop in India, the world’s largest exporter, and the impacts of El Niño. That is not currently reflected in futures prices, which have fallen 18 percent from their high at the beginning of the year. India’s ric...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
Driver of Oilseeds
The biofuels industry gets a lot of attention for influencing vegetable oil prices but growing human consumption has its role as well. The largest importer for vegetable oils as food is India and its population is reaching par with that of China. In addition to population growth, India is...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projection for U.S. soybeans is for 2023/24 ending stocks of 350 million bushels, up 15 million from 2022/23. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 123.3 million with higher stocks for the United States, Brazil, and the EU being partly offset by lower stock...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
Oilseed Highlights – Downward Slope
The Market It was a tough week for soybeans, which must have seen a dead cat bounce last week because this week peeled back the July contract by 46.5 cents and sent it back below $14 for the first time in a long while. There was even more ignominy for soyoil, with the July contract marking a ne...
Challenging India Subsidies
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen are asking USTR Katherine Tai and the Biden Administration to mount a WTO challenge to India’s use of agricultural subsidies for wheat and rice. Washington has issued multiple counter-notifications to the WTO that highlight how much India is understa...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts is unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean meal prices are also unchanged. The soybean oil price is projected at 64.0 cents per pound, down 2 cents. Global 2022/23 soybean production is reduc...
Large Wheat Importers
Pakistan is finally joining Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria as a wheat importer. The basis has long existed but has taken time to fully develop. Like the other nations in this cohort, there is a large, growing, and youthful population running headlong into a limited agricultural base. Consum...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
India’s Rise; Critic versus Constructionist
India’s Rise The world’s largest democracy has refused to criticize or disengage from Russia’s autocratic regime. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is playing his country’s power card between Russia and the U.S. The Biden Administration will pour on a full-court press this ye...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Spinning the WTO Wheels
India this week blocked a perfunctory motion at the WTO to move surplus WTO funds from 2021 into 2023. All other WTO members agreed that the funds could be used to cover the organization’s “mandatory and unavoidable expenses.” Reportedly, other WTO members characterized India&...
WASDE Soybeans
Domestics U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month. USDA explained that due to their review of EPA's recent proposed rule for renewable fuel targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022/23 is reduced 200 million pounds to 11.6 billion. Soyb...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil price is also unchanged at 69 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is f...
Blame the Rice Boogey Man
Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. soybean production to 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. Due to lower exports offseting by increased crush, ending sto...
Policy Conflicts and Solutions; India Highlighted
Policy Conflicts and Solutions Policymakers are realizing that the three big issues of climate change, sustainability and food security are conflicting. The Cairns Group is comprised of highly competitive agricultural exporting countries and so their frustration with the conflicts at the WTO is...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for the domestic soybean crop in 2022/23 is reduced in the September WASDE. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushe...
Best Trade Bargain
Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal says that India would be “happy and willing” to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. American farmers should be pummeling the White House to pursue such a deal. India runs a large trade surplus with the U.S. and benefits from s...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA forecast U.S. soybean production for 2022/23 at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million - higher yields more than offset lower harvested area; Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bus...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s June 2022 estimate for the seasonal average price of U.S. soyoil in 2022/23 is unchanged at 70 cents per pound. ...
Dominance in Rice
India is the world’s largest exporter of rice and Refinitiv points out that India’s export rice prices have been consistently lower than that of Thailand and Vietnam for the past two years. India is exporting roughly twice the amount of rice as Thailand and Vietnam combined. India h...
Market Commentary: Wheat Scores New Highs; Soybeans Rally on China Buying Rumors; Cattle Fall on Weak Cash Trade
The CBOT traded a generally bullish day with wheat futures forging a classic bullish day on the charts. Wheat futures opened higher, traded sharply lower to test support in yesterday’s chart gap, then settled higher after forging new contract highs. World wheat risks abound, and the only...
Market Commentary: Wheat Limit-Up on India’s Export Ban; Corn Rallies on Brazilian Drought/Frost Risk
Over the weekend, India announced a ban on wheat exports following the massive heat waves that have severely hurt the country’s yields. Before the ban, India was expected to be a marginal but significant – especially this year – exporter of about 10 MMT. USDA’s May WASDE...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Pre-WASDE Trade; Wheat Rallies on Too Dry/Too Wet Forecast; Inflation Drives Fund Buying
The CBOT was higher the day before the May WASDE with traders turning more bullish amid persistently challenging weather forecasts for the world’s major crop producers. Moreover, U.S. economic data sent funds looking for assets in which to hedge inflation risks, which meant an inflow of s...
Market Commentary: India Suggests, Then Denies, Wheat Export Limits; Exports Rally Soyoil; OK Wheat Yields Not OK
CBOT futures ended the day mostly higher with wheat leading the way amid rumors of an export ban from India and poor Oklahoma HRW yields. The wheat strength helped pull corn higher, along with rumors of Chinese buying interest this morning. The recent pullback in corn and soybean futures has, r...
Wheat Predator to Protectionist
Back in January, U.S. wheat growers were demanding that USTR file a WTO case against India for exceeding its de minimis limit of subsidies capped at 10 percent of the value of wheat production. The demand was presaged by a U.S. government counternotification to the WTO that New Delhi had substa...
U.S. – China Rift; India’s Manipulations; Then and Now
U.S. – China Rift There is a split within Washington policy circles over the continuation of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Backing the Senate position, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for reducing the tariffs and White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased exports and lower ending stocks. Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales have been stronger than expected through March. The soybean oil price is projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased U.S. exports and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to WASDE-623-3 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Seed use is raised in line with recor...
War on Words; Defense Kills Permanence; War Changes Market – But How?
War on Words Autocratic regimes can be dystopian and filled with censorship. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has ordered information sources to not call his assault on Ukraine an “attack,” an “invasion,” or a “war.” Instead, it is to be called a special operati...
NBT Beats GMO; CBAM Cost
NBT Beats GMO As in Europe, genetically modified crops have been controversial in India where only Bt cotton is approved for cultivation. However, scientists apparently convinced the Modi government that new breeding techniques SDN1 (small RNA degrading nuclease 1) and SDN2 (small RNA degrading...
White Commodities
The U.S. rice industry motivated its politicians to attack USTR Katherine Tai last week as she made the rounds on Capitol Hill. The main point of their ire is India, which they claim uses subsidies far more than WTO rules allow. Indeed, India has subsidized agriculture to the point that its ric...
USTR Sleeps Too Much; Weird Trade Obligations; War Profiteering
USTR Sleeps Too Much With hearings before House and Senate trade panels over the next two days, USTR Katherine Tai suddenly says she has “serious concerns” about Mexico’s energy policies. She reportedly did not arrive at those “concerns” until pushed by members of...
WASDE Soyoil - March 2022
Soybean oil: price is raised 2 cents to 68.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soyoil: Feb 2022
Soyoil: Soybean oil price forecast is raised 1 cent to 66.0 cents per pound...
Hot Vegetable Oil
The global oilseeds situation remained on track this past week with supplies tight and prices rising. March soybeans likely added over 50 cents this week, but nothing is hotter than the global vegetable oil situation. First a look at the overall soybean production situation. South American Soyb...
Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass
Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they should collapse. Afghanistan receives aid despite control by the Taliban, which banned women from governing positions and abolished the Min...
Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup
Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...
Trade Announcement on India and Pork Highlights What is Not Happening
Trade negotiations are a long, slow process, marked in many cases by small steps on the way to broader market access and more robust trade. A good reminder of that was the joint announcement by USDA and USTR yesterday that India has opened its market to U.S. pork. According to a sta...
Oilseed Situation Update
As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...
How Sweet it Isn’t
In the past three years, India has switched from being the number four exporter of sugar in the world to number two. Over the past dozen years, its domestic production has grown by 56 percent, but its exports have exploded by 229 percent. It turns out there is a reason. In a WTO challenge by Au...
WASDE Soyoil
Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average on-farm soybean price is u...
Inflation Blame-Shifting; India’s Un-Reform
Inflation Blame-Shifting President Joe Biden has asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the major oil companies for raising the cost of the fuel they sell. Now the Washington Post reports that attacking private companies for inflation may be a broader strategy. A large majority of Am...
GM Advantage
Eggplant (Brinjal) is one of the more important vegetables consumed in South Asia. It is low in nutrients but provides bulk and fiber while also being highly absorbent of flavorings. It is also subject to attack by the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, which reduces yields on a large share of the...
WASDE Soyoil
The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday. The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs
USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/21, it again raised its estimates for stocks in 2021/22 with its 12 October WASDE crop production report. By increasing its forecast for the...
Land Rents Smooth Sector
There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landlords reaping the benefits of government subsidies. Researchers at the IMF, Princeton, and the University of Toronto studied the farmland ren...
India’s Opportunity; Mexico’s Loss; Meat of the Issue
India’s Opportunity Sometime next year India will promulgate its next five-year Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). Based on the past five years, India has been operating an anti-trade policy. Average tariffs on industrial goods have risen from an average 13.3 percent to 17.6 percent, and in agri...
MFN Hurdle; Sovereign Losers; Trade Policy Movement
MFN Hurdle German Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner is urging the European Commission to ensure that third countries with a trade agreement with Europe have the same sustainability standards. Basically, imports must be held to the same standards as internal EU production methods. The pro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Soy Stocks; Argentina Soy Crush; India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 16 September indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had reasonably good success selling soybeans and soymeal for export during the week. However, as expected export sales and exports of soy...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in...
Getting Competitive; Big to Rescue India
Getting Competitive President Joe Biden rationalized the withdrawal from Afghanistan yesterday by first saying it was “no longer in our national interest,” and then adding that we need to “shore up the nation’s competitiveness to meet the challenges of China and Russia.&...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Soymeal; Canadian Canola; Renewable Diesel
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights The week ending 19 August was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans for shipment in 2021/22, but not so much for exporters of soymeal and soyoil. Net export sales of soybeans for shipment in 2020/21 totaled only 75,100 MT while sales for shipment in 20...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Sales; Argentine Corn versus Soybeans; Soybean Crop Damage in India
Soy Export Sales, Large Soybean Sales to China and Elsewhere The last two weeks have seen very large sales of U.S. soybeans to China and other destinations for export in MY 2021/22. This is the time of the year U.S. exporters normally report large new-crop soybean export sales, so the sales are...
WASDE Soyoil
2021/22 global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Parana River; India Soy; LA Renewable Diesel
U.S. Old-Crop Soybean Export Sales Declined Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated old-crop soybean export sales declined last week, but sales for the next marketing year increased. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also were poor. Net U.S. soybean export sales for shipment in 202...
Security Trumps Economics
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week but do not expect any help for U.S. farmers. The two plan to talk about China, bilateral defense ties, regional peace, and other geopolitical matters. There is no indication that the Biden Administration...
Hunger at Home, Food Abroad
Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India believes that 2021 will be worse because now savings have been depleted. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports have increased by over...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month. ...
Meat and Health
Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, this should be evidenced statistically. India by far has the highest percentage of population on a vegetarian diet (38 – 45 percent) yet...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian Canola; U.S. Soymeal; Indian Monsoon; China ASF; Soy Stocks
Canadian Canola Crop is in Big Trouble. While most of the attention in the U.S. has been focused on the drought in the upper Midwest the drought in the Canadian prairie provinces appears to be even worse. And that is a big problem for the canola crop in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; India Soybeans; Brazil and Argentine Soymeal; Weather
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS weekly export sales report continued to show low U.S. soy export sales and also a slowing down of exports because of the great increase in exports out of South America. However, there are signs demand for U.S. soy will begin to pick up in late...
Popular India Soy and Maize
The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However, the largest annual increases in the market support price (MSP) are going to soybeans and then maize. As previously noted, India’s so...
India’s Soy Outpaces
The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India is the world’s largest consumer of vegetable oil and exported three times as much soymeal a decade ago until domestic demand started...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from...
Punish the People; Chump Trade Policy; Careful with Farmers
Punish the People Like consumers elsewhere in the world, Indians are now paying about double for vegetable oil what they paid a year ago. This is a bargain when one considers that Chicago July soyoil futures are up 150 percent from last year. India is the world’s largest importer of veget...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil Tariffs; Argentine Beef and Soy; Brazil Land; China Soy Stocks
India Considering Proposal to Lower Vegoil Import Tariff Rates The government of India yesterday indicated it is considering reducing tariff rates for imports of vegoils. The initiative is aimed at reducing vegoil prices to consumers since vegoil prices have more than doubled this year. Vegoils...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; China Soy Crush; More Containers, India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters made moderate export sales of U.S. soybeans and soymeal in the week ending 20 May but made almost no sales or exports of soyoil. Exports of soybeans and soymeal were seasonally positive. Net sales of...
Reliability versus Value in Beef
Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. However, Russia has proven that wheat importing countries care more about value (quality and price) than they do about reliability of specific su...
Not Just Food
The tightening global stocks situation is not just impacting food crops but fiber as well. Global production of cotton is down 7.4 percent at the same time consumption has increased 14.6 percent. The result is that ending stocks have fallen 5 percent and the average price is 14 percent higher...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Renewable Diesel Deals; China Feed; India Meal
Soy Export Sales Highlights USDA's export sales report for the week ending 15 April indicated U.S. export sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 continue to be slow, but sales were positive for 2021/22. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were almost totally limited to nearby markets. Net soybea...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates
U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use projections are mostly unchanged. Ending stocks remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 million from last year’s record. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.15 per bushel, unchanged from last month.&n...
WASDE Soymeal
Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $400.00 per ton. ...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 41.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent from last month. ...
Inflation Focus; New WTO Skunk
Inflation Focus As the U.S. Senate debates a $1.9 trillion COVID economic recovery effort, the issue of its potential for stoking inflation has been forced into the debate by a frisky bond market. Indeed, equity markets fell today despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying that easy...
Folly of Anti-Big; Meating the Hurdles
Folly of Anti-Big A Washington Insider report states that a study by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) reveals that the Trump administration ‘aimed its “bailouts” increasingly to the nation's biggest farms.’ It correctly claims that 1 percent of farms received 23 per...
Stale Result; Mixed Messages on China; Transatlantic Carrot and Stick
Stale Result India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has called for a “fresh package” trade agreement with the U.S. that is more ambitious than the effort with the Trump Administration. He denigrated the Trump effort as “nitpicking on every small issue.&rd...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Organic Products; Argentine Export Taxes
Another Week of Good U.S. Soybean Export Sales Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exports had a good week selling U.S. soybeans in the week ending 4 February. Sales of soymeal also were good, but there was a net reduction in soyoil export sales. Net soybean export sales...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 1.5 cents to 40.0 cents per pound...
Market Commentary: Corn Pauses After Contract High as Wheat, Soybean Chop Sideways
Corn followed through on last week’s upside breakout and overnight fund buying sent the market to a fresh contract high. Buying interest was limited in wheat and soybeans, however, with funds using rallies in both as selling opportunities. That created choppy, sideways trade for most CBOT...
India Substitutes Cess for Duty
The WTO just completed its trade policy review of India and it affirmed what is already known by that nation’s trading partners…India continues to rely on tariffs, minimum import prices, import restrictions, and licensing… with frequent changes that create uncertainties for...
Get What You Beget; Economic Weapons; Marketing Plan?
Get What You Beget It started with geographic indicators, then it moved on to country of origin labeling even for products made within the EU’s “single” market, next came calls for food sovereignty, though that is aimed at stopping food imports from third country suppliers. No...
Codifying Gains; Saving Forests; From Importer to Exporter; Arctic Fruit
Codifying Gains American farmers are said to be politically conservative. After all, they tend to vote for Republicans in large numbers. But even Republicans are not the budget hawks they once were. Instead, politics has solely become who gets the largess, not whether it builds more debt...
Market Commentary: Even Bears are Bulls
If a wolf can be in sheep’s clothing, could a bear be in a bull’s hide? Or a bull in a bear’s coat? Whether a bull or a bear, it is about profit-taking, which means sometimes the bull makes a nod to the bear and the bear to the bull. Today was another day won by the bull but n...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Argentina Dryness; Indian Soymeal
A Good Week for U.S. Soy Exporters Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil had great success in the week ending 7 January. Sales of soybeans were high for this point in the marketing year and export sales of soymeal were a marketing y...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 38.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents...
Spud Consumption
Although Walmart sells more groceries, Kroger is the largest grocery chain in the U.S. and some things on its list of documented food trends in 2020 will concern health specialists. The effort to avoid contracting COVID by staying home included increased consumption of flavored potato chips. Al...
Biden Trade Policy; Slippery Slope; Selective Attention; Selective Interpretation
Biden Trade Policy Washington’s chattering class continue to speculate and opine on what President-Elect Joe Biden’s administration should do with trade policy. Some say to cut tariffs, others recommend ending bilateralism, there is even the hope that he will decide to rejoin the TP...
Plenty of Global Stocks
The markets are bullish and global food prices are rising but stocks of wheat, corn, and soybeans are ample. Over the past 40 years, the world’s population has increased by 70 percent. Over that same period, global ending stocks of corn are up 127 percent, surplus wheat is up 181 percent...
WASDE Soybeans
soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 175 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest since 2013/14. Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $10.55 per bushe...
Thoughtless Londoners; Weird Biden Buckets; Money Against Roundup; SPS Abuse
Thoughtless Londoners First Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came out in support of India’s protesting farmers and now thousands protest in London against India's farming reforms. London has a lot of residents with Indian heritage, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to get h...
Water Investment
The extremely dry conditions in Argentina illustrate the low level of irrigation in many countries around the world. In terms of number of irrigated hectares, China is number one, followed by India and then the U.S. However, on a percent share of total agricultural land, Japan is by far number...
India’s Vegoil Gap
India’s production of major oilseeds increased by around 6 percent over the past decade at the same time its population advanced by 9 percent. Although New Delhi restricts vegetable oil imports, particularly soyoil, to protect its domestic crushing industry, imports are significant and ha...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 34.5 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month. ...
India’s Gain is Competitors’ Losses
India’s monsoon season has been abundant and has boosted hopes for bumper crops that will boost incomes and exports. This contrasts with urban areas that have been hit hard by COVID. There is also hope in New Delhi that the Biden Administration will be more generous than President Trump,...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Buys U.S. Soyoil; Shortage of Containers
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was another good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soybean products. If the pace of sales and exports continue it could be a record export year for the U.S. soybean sector. Net export sales of soybeans in the week ending 29 October totaled 1,530,5...
WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent; EU Food Fun
WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent Bad: The U.S. Congressional Research Service has concluded that trade war payments and COVID relief payments to farmers have likely exceeded WTO limits on such cash transfers. U.S. officials retort that that they are legal. However, the real problem is that the U.S. has...
Pasta versus Bread
Wheat is the largest and possibly oldest consumed food grain in the world, but its future is slowing down. Known as the staff of life, about 50 percent more wheat is consumed than rice, though about 18 percent of wheat destruction is from feed use. Bread is a predominant use of wheat, though pa...
Oilseed Highlights: China Soybean Purchases; Renewable Diesel; NOPA Crush; India Soy
China Continues to Buy U.S. Soybeans Because of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday USDA will not issue its weekly export sales report until tomorrow. However, it is clear Chinese importers have continued to purchase and import U.S. soybeans. Yesterday and today USDA indicated exporters had repo...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced ending stocks of U.S. soybeans for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks: U.S. soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, down 96 million on lower production and beginning stocks. Despite reduced supplies, soybean exports are raise...
Markets are Scary
The government of Narendra Modi is pushing through reforms to make Indian agriculture more market-oriented, but it has become a huge political fight within the country. Since independence, agriculture in India has been largely about government control of supply and thus the price received by hu...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans – USDA reduced the estimated yield from 53.3 to 51.9 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks for the 2020/21 season were also reduced. Ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month. Lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Wants Biotech Oilseeds and Higher Oil Tariffs
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was both positive and somewhat disappointing. Sales of soybeans for the upcoming marketing year were large, but not for 2019/20. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were disappointing. However, exports of soybeans and soymeal last week...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Highlights of WASDE for Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales highlights confirmed the week ending 6 August was a fantastic one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and a good one for export sales of U.S. soymeal. The large sales and exports of soybeans of last week have been followed by additiona...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price is forecast at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA forecasts U.S. soybean production at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre is raised 3.5 bushels from l...
Exporting Water
The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...
Currency Manipulation; Phase One Intentions; India Recognizing Ag Policy Constraints
Currency Manipulation Goldman Sachs is warning that the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency is at risk. Threats include inflation, political uncertainty and debt/slow economic growth related to the coronavirus. The U.S. dollar has fallen over 10 percent in value since t...
Cattlemen Dinged on Leather
The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed demand for fashion generally and this has reverberated to the leather industry. The hide, which is the largest component of slaughter’s byproducts, only adds about 3 percent to a rancher’s income but has nonetheless been important. A glut of hides in...
Phase One Status; Small Beer
Phase One Status China’s Foreign Ministry yesterday said it remains committed to the Phase One trade deal it reached with the U.S. but warned it will respond to “bullying” from Washington. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) calculates that China has purch...
WASDE Soyoil
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. USDA reduced global oilseed production by 2.0 million tons to 604.2 million on lower rapeseed, cottonseed, and soybean production.&...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20. With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Market Commentary
Monday’s CBOT trade was quiet with corn leading to the downside as funds continue to be net sellers. Soybean futures traded a mixed day with early short covering in soymeal offering support. Wheat future are looking for a bottom and may have found one with the market rallying 3-4 cents th...
Challenging COVID Subsidies; Wheat’s Weapon
Challenging COVID Subsidies There has been an increase in the use of agricultural subsidies by several countries and that is especially true as governments this year have been fighting the adverse impacts of the coronavirus. Increased subsidies by China and India have been successfully challeng...
Dairy Everywhere
Milk producers express more angst over the economic situation than other commodity producers, yet their production is largely inline with consumption. For the three largest global milk makers, India has actually increased consumption to match production. The other two large producers are the EU...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA estimates that U.S. soyoil production and ending stocks will be higher in 2020/21. Total global oilseed supply and demand forecasts are for slightly higher production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. The price forecast is unchanged for U.S. soyoil...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA raised the 2019/20 soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting increased domestic soybean meal use. The price forecast is unchanged for U.S. soymeal...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates higher U.S. soybean crush will fully offset an increase in beginning stocks and cause a decline in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 395 million bushels for the 2020/21 crop year. Global 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 96.3 million. The p...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India’s c...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India’s Vegoil Imports; Chinese Uncertainty
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights This week has been an active one for U.S. soybean export sales to China and unknown destination. USDA reported soybean export sales totaling 570,000 MT since 29 May. Of that amount 306,000 MT are reported as sold for unknown destinations and 264,000 MT haven bee...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy; U.S.- China Friction; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; EU Rapeseed
Argentine Farmers Continue to Reduce Soybean Sales Argentina’s farmers continue to hold back on selling their new crop of soybeans and selling less of their old crop compared to a year ago. Instead of selling they are holding on to their crop in expectation of a devaluation of the Argenti...
Falling Out of Favor
The EU is the largest consumer of rapeseed, followed by China, Canada and India. Its use in number three Canada and number four India has been rising, but it has declined in the EU and China. China has of course taken up soybeans, where consumption has been expanding at 4.42 percent per year. T...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Estimates – U.S. soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents from 2019/20...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Estimates - U.S. soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $10.00 from 2019/20. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Difficult Time for Soy Processors; Sunoil Versus Soyoil
U.S. Soy Export Highlights The week ending 30 April was not a good one for U.S. soy exports. Sales of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil for shipment in 2019/20 were all down from the previous week. Net soybean exports sales last week for 2019/20 shipment totaled 653,100 MT. That was down by 39 perce...
India Hurts its Own Dairy Market
There is a global abundance of grain and oilseeds and while meat animals are being euthanized due to a lack of slaughter capacity and total production is declining, dairy production has not faltered in the same way. This means that corn, DDGs and soymeal should increasingly find a home in dairy...
Enforcing WTO Limits; Notifying the WTO
Enforcing WTO Limits In this extraordinary time of global market turbulence, governments are taking measures to protect industry sectors including agriculture. For example, India has invoked the “peace clause” on its MSP levels (minimum support prices), basically notifying the...
Market Commentary
CBOT grains and livestock markets were mostly higher today with short covering the dominant theme in corn. Wheat futures sold off early in the day but found short covering support as well as some long buying interest in HRW futures while the soy complex was weaker for most of the day with soyme...
Back to the 1980’s
Economic norms are being dramatically changed by the coronavirus. Nearly 70 countries now restrict the export of medical supplies. There is also now a stronger push for government intrusion into agricultural markets. Some in Europe are calling for a return to intervention stocks to prop up pric...
Supply Policies; Covid Impacts
Supply Policies India’s pursuit of public stockholding of food surpluses is an old answer to an even older question – what policy to use to manage supply/demand imbalances. Then there is the issue of the externalities resulting from any of the chosen approaches. Just three countries...
WADSE Soyoil
USDA reduced the average U.S. soybean oil prices by 2 cents to 31.5 cents per pound. A notable change is a 1-million-ton reduction for palm oil production, mainly in Malaysia and Colombia, leading to a 19 percent year-over-year decline in global vegetable oil stocks...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 are mostly unchanged in the March WASDE. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.70 per bushel, down 5 cents. With soybean crush and exports projected at 2.1 billion bushels and 1.8 billion bushels, respecti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates The COVID19 outbreak continues to be the dominating force in commodity and equity markets around the world. With the virus curtailing travel and causing crude oil prices to plummet, commodities tied to oil (like soyoil) are receiving commensurate selling pressure. More broadly,...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a day in the red as coronavirus anxiety continues to haunt investors. Fear of betting against calamity is understandable since a story of outright disaster is easy to imagine. Rabobank predicts another four months of supply chain disruptions except that both nearby and more distan...
COVID-19 Calculations; Trade Policy Shorts
COVID-19 Calculations Equities have now plunged two days in a row over the coronavirus, but commodities fought back today rather than overreact. The COVID-19 virus is said to have put Italy close to recession, though German businesses are said to still be positive. That is the problem with curr...
Tax Tech Divide; Low Leverage on India
Tech Tax Divide G-20 finance ministers failed to make headway on the issue of high-tech company taxation and the prognosis is not good. The Czech Republic is the latest European company to debate imposing a high levy on global internet companies and its officials apparently brushed aside the th...
Unilateral Everything; Not So Very Big; Ugly Bailout
Unilateral Everything U.S. President Trump gets blamed for “America First” unilateralism but in fact it is practiced equally by all countries. Agricultural protectionism has been a dominant factor for decades and many countries extend this to fisheries and forestry. However, i...
India Offer to U.S.; Coronavirus and Super Tuesday; Concrete AB
India Offer to U.S. New Delhi and Washington would both like to have a trade deal by the time President Trump visits India on 24-25 February and India is making offers. According to Reuters, India has offered to reduce its tariff on chicken legs from 100 percent to 25 percent and make other con...
WASDE Soybeans
Target Europe; India’s Special Pass
Target Europe The frustration with Europe in the Trump Administration is palpable. China has been viewed as unfair competition but out of design. It was a poorer country overly granted concessions that must now be clawed back. By contrast, Europe is viewed as manipulative, taking what should be...
Fair and Equitable; Contrasts in Productive Attitudes; Authoritatively Wrong
Fair and Equitable In order to secure votes for the USMCA from Florida and Georgia politicians representing perishable fruit and vegetable growers, USTR promised subsequent action to impose the kind of seasonal import protections that failed to make it into the agreement just negotiated with Me...
India Needs Fruit and Vegetable Imports
Unfavorable weather this past summer caused a shortfall in food production that is now reverberating through the Indian economy. Food comprises half of India’s consumer price index and the cost of vegetables in this global number one vegetarian market has reportedly skyrocketed 61 percent...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean oil prices is raised 3 cents to 34.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soymeal price is reduced $5.00 to $305.00 per short ton. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Western Europe faced wet conditions for much of the fall/early winter, but that trend may be changing. The 15-day precipitation anomaly shows a drying trend for Spain, France, Italy, and the UK. Parts of eastern Europe received above-average precipitation during the past two weeks...
Coming Decade of Asian Growth to “Energize” Global Trade
Since the post-World War II era and the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the WTO, there has been one general rule of thumb: economic growth in developing countries drives commodity demand, be it for energy, raw materials or agriculture and fo...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil and Argentine Weather, India Tariffs, Brazil Soy Exports, Pakistan
Parts of Brazil Soybean Area in Need of Rain Most the soybean growing areas of Brazil are apparently in good condition with adequate rainfall. However, in two areas – Northeast Brazil and Rio Grande do Sul - soybeans are suffering from dryness and need rainfall. In northeastern Braz...
WASDE Soybeans
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Soybean Estimates: Soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $8.85 per bushel, down 15 cents. Global 2019/20 oilseed production is f...
Ag Review - November 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the next farm bill, the future of ag technology from artificial meat to drones, potential shifts in production to different crops, the outlook for U.S. – Chinese rel...
Scale and Sustainability
Sustainability has become an important attribute for agricultural systems with many activists falsely asserting that extensive farming has a smaller environmental footprint. Now research by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (ICTA), an organization focused on making small farms i...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy
SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that nation’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has released guidelines for reform. But the Commission is looking...
Oilseed Highlights: Increased Brazilian Soymeal Exports, U.S. Domestic Soymeal Demand
U.S. Soymeal Exports to Face More Competition from Brazil The U.S. has faced aggressive competition in exporting soymeal from Brazil and Argentina for at least two decades. However, it appears the competition will intensify if the government of Brazil moves ahead with its plan to boost biodiese...
Alternative Crops
U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Brazil, and restricted markets due to the U.S. - China trade war. Still, natural fibers remain a buoyant market and cotton was always a fallba...
USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts
USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the Mexicans are not doing enough meaningful labor reform. Organized labor in the U.S. has taken a strong line, demanding actions by Mexico tha...
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports; Labor Blocks USMCA
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports Agriculture is the first sector receiving retaliation in trade disputes and there is no end in sight for trade wars. The Trump Administration contention that the U.S. has fared badly over the past 25 years of the WTO is not unique, it is largely shared by ma...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil, U.S. Soy Sales, Egypt Vegoil Tender, Argentine Election
India’s Vegoil Imports to Increase by 1 MMT Per Year B.V. Mehta, the head of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), says India imports of vegoil are expected to grow by an additional 1 MMT per year over the next five years. India already is the world’s top importer of v...
Morality Trade
Trade and industry are not just distorted by tariffs a la Donald Trump, but increasingly by sanctions intended to protect a political or moral principle. • India says it will not buy Malaysian palm oil because Kuala Lumpur disagreed with New Delhi’s actions in Kashmir. &b...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reports: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 30.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Reports: U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 107.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.6 billion bushels, down 83 million, mainly on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 46.9 bushels per acre, down...
Impeachment Impacts; WPI and Impeachment; U.S. – India Negotiations
Impeachment Impacts President Trump has tried to characterize his House Democratic antagonists as ignoring the needs of the American people by instead focusing all their time on impeachment. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi responded by saying they will continue their work on the USMCA agreement. Ind...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Yield, Argentine Soy Crushers, Soy Export Sales, Indian Soy
The Case for an Average U.S. Soybean Yield Below USDA’s Forecast USDA’s most recent forecast for the average U.S. soybean yield in 2019 is 47.9 bushels per acre (3.22 MT/hectare). That is below the average of the last 3 years. However, is it still too high? A look at the most recent...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA soyoil estimates: The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound...
Aggressive New EU Leadership; USMCA Labor Solution; Indian Ally
Aggressive New EU Leadership Under John Claude Juncker, the EU seemed confused on how to deal with Donald Trump, never having previously experienced such antagonism from an American leader. There was even a nonsensical trade agreement letter that was supposed to reduce the transatlantic tension...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Crop Tour; Too Much Rain in India; China's Soyoil; Canadian Oilseeds
U.S. Soy Export sales Highlights Today USDA released the weekly export sales report for the week ending 15 August. It indicated net sales of soybeans totaled 25,900 MT for MY 2018/19 shipment. Sales to Germany (68,500 MT), Indonesia (56,000 MT), Bangladesh (53,100 MT), Portugal (35,000 MT), Ita...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...
A New Normal for U.S.-China Trade?
The modern U.S.-China trade relationship has always been strained. President George W. Bush addressed this challenge by bringing China into the WTO to force its compliance with global trading rules. However, that didn’t work. While two-way trade did grow significantly, so did China&r...
Focus on New Products/Markets
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...
EU-Mercosur Wreck; No Indian Epiphany
EU-Mercosur Wreck EU leaders proudly announced a trade agreement with the Mercosur group of countries last month, but that is now in political jeopardy. Environmentalists have joined with farmers in opposing the plan. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume says that his country will not p...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S.-China Trade Update; Monsoonal Effect on India’s Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Sales
Hope for Breakthrough in Next Week’s U.S.–China Negotiations It is now confirmed that USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will meet next Tuesday in Shanghai with top Chinese trade negotiators to continue discussions aimed at ending the ongoing trade dispute. According to...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue
Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging one for the U.S. soy complex. However, soybean exports last week were the highest since the week ending 21 March 2019. The report indicated ne...
Barriers and Ag’s Future; Plurilateral Future
Barriers and Ag’s Future The Greens and other liberal groups in Europe have aligned their sights on turning European agriculture into a chemical-free, non-intensive industry. Rather than just attack from the European Parliament’s largest committee, the Environment Committee, they ha...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Notes: Global oilseed exports for 2019/20 are projected at 175.0 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2019/20 are reduced 10.7 million tons to 119.5 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. Th...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Notes: Soybean production for 2019/20 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28 Acreage report and on lower projected yields. Harvested area, forecast at 79.3 million acres, is down 4.5 million from last month.&nb...
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost; Varied GMO Approaches
U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost Junnosuke Kobara at Nikkei provides analysis showing that while Japanese farmers may be few in number, they have outsized influence when voting as a bloc. The analysis is important because there is an Upper House election in two weeks, and the Abe government is negotiat...
Taking Stock of the Political Risks Facing Agriculture
Markets, industries and companies are constantly exposed to political risk (i.e., the impact that changes in policies and regulations can have on profitability). Indeed, virtually every major company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) includes some comment or disc...
Legs of War; No Cigar
Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. ...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars...
Planes, Trains and Automobiles; Death by Duties; Life with Meat
Planes, Trains and Automobiles Part of the focus on China pertains to the extent that the government controls the means of commerce. It is pervasive to be sure with more than a third of all business activity there estimated to be under such control. However, China is not alone. Western governme...
Future of Trump Trade Policy; Iced Coffee
Future of Trump Trade Policy The U.S. has lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers than most other countries. The theory of Trump trade policy has involved an eye for an eye – imposing tariffs to leverage more equitable treatment. It has not worked well. South Korea, Canada and Me...
Global Politics Weighs on Trade
Pundits are debating the impacts of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impressive reelection as well as the mood of his Bharatiya Janata Party. The question is whether the pre-election refusal to engage with the U.S. on stronger trade relations becomes a more permanent fixture. Even mo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market either dropped or remained stable in RUB expression but increased for some crops in USD expression due to the stronger ruble. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) and 2018 wheat grew to $184-187/MT FOB Bl...
China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling
China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his objectives elsewhere. Farmers, Republicans and the U.S. economy can only handle so much controversy at once. He was forced to end tariffs on steel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more significant. Quotes for 2019 12.5 percent protein wheat were within $182-186/MT FOB Black Sea, which makes the current average price for 2018 wheat...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Notes: The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19. The soybean crop is projected at 4,150 million bushels, down 394 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yie...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April-3 May 2019 There were only two working days during the week in review, but prices mostly followed a downward trend during that period. The average milling wheat export price fell to $210/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price declined to $187/MT CPT-Bla...
India’s Water; Politicized Trade; Trade Negotiation Outcomes
India’s Water India is still hoping to hold the Trump administration from removing it from eligibility for lower tariffs under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The latest message from New Delhi is that the government is looking at increasing imports from the U.S. to reduce its...
Oilseed Highlights: China-Canada Dispute; India’s Planting Intentions; Brazilian Truck Freight Rates
China Expanding Blockage of Imports from Canada It appears that China has raised the pressure on Canada to release the Huawei Technologies CFO. After she was arrested at the request of the U.S., the Chinese government began rejecting shipments of Canadian canola, ostensibly because of phytosani...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Low Argentine Soy Protein; Bearish Soybeans
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights U.S. export sales of soybeans and soymeal were up in the week ending 18 April, but soyoil sales and exports declined from the previous week. Net soybean export sales for 2018/19 shipment totaled 596,300 MT, mainly to unknown destinations (230,700 MT), China (212...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression due to the strengthening of the ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat sea export price fell to $222/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase price...
Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion
Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing country members of the WTO at a meeting next week in New Delhi to discuss how to boost their advantage in the organization. India and others co...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Palm Oil Tariffs; Canadian Canola; India’s Feed Sector
India’s Vegoil Refiners Push Lower Tariff Rates for Crude Palm Oil The Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India is pushing the government to lower the import tariff on crude palm oil to prevent further damaging of the domestic vegoil refining sector. The request is a result of surgin...
Can’t Walk the Talk; Limited Policy Options; On the Other Foot
Can’t Walk the Talk German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, and he is advising “all parties” to avoid any escalation in trade tensions. Herr Scholz is no doubt concerned that the Germ...
WASDE Soyoil
Soybean oil changes include increased imports and domestic disappearance for biodiesel and for food use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean oil price is projected at 28.0 to 30.0 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint...
WASDE Soybean
USDA estimates that U.S. soybean supply and use changes in the April WASDE include lower imports, higher seed use, and lower ending stocks. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, down 5 million. The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and d...
Policy Opportunities and Risks
Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...
Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts
Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes
Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...
WASDE Soybeans
According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report. With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. The season-average s...
WASDE Corn
According to USDA: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...
India Doubles Down; Too Green
India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its commitment on domestic supports. The case follows a similar challenge by the U.S. on other crops. The reaction from the Modi government is to a...
Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight
Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...
Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss
Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...
Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth
The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and other factors, however, that country is unlikely to be such a dominant factor in the global soy sector. As a result, other key markets must b...
Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions
Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...
E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances
There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In testimony before the House Ag Committee, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue suggested that EPA was unlikely to finish the waiver for year-round E15 use...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $236/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices fell to $207-209/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export price decreased to $221/MT F...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indo-American Trade War; Sino-American Impacts; Cars and Soybeans
Indo-American Trade War Unlike many other governments, New Delhi had been holding off on counterretaliation against the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The fear was that such a response would further inflame Washington’s threat of withdrawing Genera...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector
Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein
U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be shipped in the current marketing year. This brought total reported soybean sales to China since its delegation last visited Washington to 3.80...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January report (click here), the poultry sector’s margins continue to fall with the cost of production up at least 7.5 percent due to those price...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...
The Disruption Game
Trump administration officials meet with their Chinese counterparts the week of 7 January to begin trade negotiations. No one should expect a quick or easy agreement. As should now be transparent to all, Mr. Trump prefers total disruption as a negotiating style. In its ongoing effort to present...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week. Russia’s domestic prices were $2-6/MT higher in different regions. Meanwhile, it has exported approximately 23 MMT from the start of the campaign, and the range of estimates for the final total is 32-36.5 MMT. The export surplus rem...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s Corn Prices Too High; End Users Want Imports The Indian poultry, dairy, feed and starch sectors’s corn consumption has grown 1.1 MMT since 2014/15 to reach 19.63 MMT in 2017/18. The marketable surplus peaked in 2016/17 at 19.10 MMT, per the industry estimate. Erratic supplie...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA also reported additional sales yesterday and today of 1,403,000 MT to that country, bringing the two-week total to 2.964 MMT. Trade sources sug...
Ag Review - December 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. grain and soybean sectors, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...
Tale of the Tail; USMCA Strategy; Up in Smoke; Delhi Dirt
Tale of Trade Restrictions’ Tail China came into the U.S. market today for soybeans, but American farmers now realize they need to diversify their markets. Perhaps they’ve learned something from past trade wars. Consider the following: Soviet Grain Embargo 1) Before the Soviet Union...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA notes the following about soybeans: Soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 are unchanged from last month. With soybean exports and crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at a record 955 million bushels. The U.S. season- average soybean price for 2018/19 is forecast at...
Oilseed Highlights: China and U.S. Soybean Imports; WASDE and the Soy Sector
China Apparently Deciding How Many U.S. Soybean to Import At their meeting in Buenos Aires, President Trump was able to get a commitment from President Xi to import a substantial volume of U.S. soybeans and other commodities during the 90-day truce in the trade war. Hong Kong’s South Chin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA notes the following about wheat: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.0 billion with all the reduction in Hard Red Winter (HRW) on historically low exports for thi...
Immoderate Nutrition; Global Integration; Climate Recalculation
Immoderate Nutrition In 2010 the Obama administration sought to make the school lunch program comport with the government’s own nutrition guidelines – less fat, sugar and salt but more fresh fruits, vegetables and whole grains. School systems reacted by complaining the rules were in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India Oil Meal Exports Up Oil meal exports of 2.043 MMT for April-November were almost 10 percent higher versus 1.855 MMT for the same period last year. October 2018 was the start of the soymeal season, and nearly 0.367 MMT were exported in the two-month period since then, up 32.73 percen...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Prices Continue to Rise; Imports Required In the past 15 days, prices in the key corn production/consumption hubs have risen 6.7-9.6 percent and are 29 percent higher than last year. Two possible reasons for this are the higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP) announced by the government of In...
Cash-Settled Wheat Futures
As trading of agricultural crop futures contracts evolved in the 19th century at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), there were futures markets for wheat, corn, oats, rye and hay. In the 20th century, trading in the hay and rye markets diminished so much that the CBOT eventually dropped them. Ho...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sensitive Sugar Situation in India India has so far contracted to export approximately 1 MMT of sugar against the government’s fixed target of 5 MMT. Despite dropping 3.49 percent in the past month, however, the Indian sugar price is still 21.06 percent higher than the world price, which...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Prices Remain Higher, Curbing Export Potential The government of India (GOI) estimated the khariff (October harvest) corn production at 21.47 MMT on 26 September 2018, 1.23 MMT more than the final estimate for that season’s crop last year. The increase is despite the uneven distribut...
New Trade War Weapon
Only twice has a country filed a challenge in the WTO against another’s required notification of its domestic ag subsidies. The first was in May when the U.S. did so against India’s report on market support for wheat and rice during MY 2010/11-2013/14. The second time was yesterday...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s November estimate for 2018/19 is for South America to capture more of China’s soybean market while the United States is likely to capture more market share in the rest of the world, particularly in the second half of the marketing year when those imports typically trend highe...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s November estimate for 2018/19 protein consumption growth rate for China is reduced, which is reflected in the limited number of U.S. export sales this fall. Although sales to China are minimal, strong sales to other markets are expected to continue, which is likely to result...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s November estimate for 2018/19 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower production, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4,600 million bushels, down 90 million on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, d...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soy Subsidy; Soy Changes in WASDE; U.S. Soy Export Sales
China’s Heilongjiang Province Doubles Subsidy for Soybeans Heilongjiang Province, China’s top soybean and corn producer, has doubled its subsidy for growing soybeans to 320 yuan/mu ($330/acre or $815/hectare at the current exchange rate) as a way to boost production. To further enco...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Russia and Syria are reportedly about to cooperate on a wheat hub in the latter country for the Middle Eastern wheat import markets. This project will mean an expansion of ports there with added grain storage and transshipment facilities along...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Leveraging India; Defining the Transatlantic Problem; Super Stink
Leveraging India A U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum scheduled for this week has been postponed due to the lack of progress on bilateral trade negotiations. India has bureaucratic, economic and political constraints to granting improved market access for U.S. farm products and pharmaceuticals. Howe...
Demonopolization; Bogeyman Strikes Again; False Metrics
Demonopolization China steadfastly refuses to reduce the number of state-owned enterprises operating in its economy. This reflects its internal politics and patronage. However, it might want to look at similar demonopolization efforts in other countries. As part of its economic reform, Sa...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India’s Sugar Production Commences, Ethanol Tender Under Scrutiny The sugarcane crush season has started in India with a few mills beginning operations in Maharashtra last week. There are still some issues to be resolved before all mills are crushing, including the labor wages for harv...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Oilseeds; China and Indian Rapeseed Meal; U.S. Soy Inspections and Trial Yields
Dry Weather Reducing India’s Oilseed Production There were expectations earlier this year that India would produce a significantly larger oilseed crop. However, poor rainfall late in the growing season has made it clear that production of soybeans, peanuts and other crops will be lower th...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...
WASDE Soyoil
October estimate is U.S. soybean oil price unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound. Despite lower global oilseed production, increased beginning stocks, mainly in the United States, results in a 2.0 million-ton increase to global oilseed ending stocks to 123.8 million. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Processors’ Supply Issue; EU Soymeal; Indian Protein Meal; China and GMOs
Brazilian Processors Squeezed by China’s Soybean Purchases Despite a record soybean crop in 2018, Brazil’s processors are not having the banner year that might be expected. This is because 69.2 MMT were exported during February-September with a record amount, almost the entire volum...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soy Exports; U.S. Soy Yield Forecast; U.S. Soy Exports
India Raises Minimum Price for Rapeseed Faced with farmers protesting low commodity prices, the government of India (GOI) yesterday boosted the minimum prices of winter crops, and that of rapeseed was raised 5 percent to 42,000 rupees/MT. At the current exchange rate of 73.1 rupees per USD, tha...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Soymeal; Argentine Soybean Exports; U.S. Soy Export Sales
India’s Quest to Export More Soymeal Threatens Domestic Availability India’s government and soybean processing industry are pressing China to resume imports of Indian soymeal. The chairman of India’s Soybean Processors Association indicates this would allow the country&r...
Walk the Trade Talk; Monopoly Power
Walk the Trade Talk President Trump gave a buffoonish speech at the U.N. today, which makes it easier to mock his pronouncements. However, there is no shortage of hypocrisy from those critiquing his America First proclamations. French President Emmanuel Macron denounced the rise of nationalism...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Soy Imports; Soy Sales to Argentina; Indian Rapeseed Meal; Soy Export Sales
EU Soybean Imports Up, Soymeal Down The EU Commission today reported soybean imports totaled 2.8 MMT as of 16 September and from the beginning of the current marketing year (July-June), up 11 percent from 2.5 MMT at the same time a year ago. It also indicated EU soymeal imports totaled 3.6 MMT...
Taj Mahal Chicken Coups; Starving for Health; Climate and Trade Wars; E15 Push
Taj Mahal Chicken Coups California voters are once again set to roil agricultural producers elsewhere in the nation as they vote 6 November on Proposition 12. Pushed by animal rights advocates who are outspending opponents, it would mandate specific growing conditions such as enlarged spaces fo...
U.S.-India Trade Negotiations
According to President Trump, his take-no-prisoners trade strategy has spurred promising trade talks with India. He said while on the stump in South Dakota, “India called us the other day. They said they would like to start doing a trade deal, first time.” India’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS Afghanistan has received the first lot of Pakistan’s 40,000 MT wheat donation. The shipment of just under 400 MT was delivered at the same time the new Pakistani foreign minister was visiting the country. The Middle East/African region&rs...
Sino-American Trade War II; Undermining China; Most Challenging; More FDA Plaudits
Sino-American Trade War II U.S. President Donald Trump says he will impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China, perhaps this week. He is tempering his attack by cutting the tariffs from an earlier 25 percent to just 10 percent. The Chinese have responded by saying...
Trade Policy Mixer; Developing Country Risks; Farm Bill and Crisis
Trade Policy Mixer China: President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the Treasury Department to move forward with punitive duties on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China. No one is expecting the trade war to end anytime soon. Iran: The EU is creating a “special purpos...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; Argentina’s 2019 Soybean Crop; U.S. Export Sales
Plentiful Soybean Supplies USDA yesterday confirmed the U.S. will harvest a record soybean crop once again in 2018, forecasting the average national yield at 52.8 bushels/acre (3.55 MT/hectare) and a record production of 4.693 billion bushels (127.74 MMT). Even though it raised the estima...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates that soybean production is projected at a record 4,693 million bushels, up 107 million on a record yield forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are raised with higher production only partly offset by lower beginning stocks. The 2018/19 U.S. season-average...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are raised 4.7 million tons on a 3.4-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. The Russian crop is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest results to date in the winter wheat region and continued excellent weather in the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...
Half-NAFTA Not; SPS Highlights
Half-NAFTA Not The Trump White House believes it has Canada cornered, but deft lobbying of the U.S. Congress by Ottawa makes it unlikely that a solely U.S.-Mexico trade agreement would be approved on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump and his counterpart Justin Trudeau have carved out positions...
Trump’s NAFTA Problems; India Clean Up; European Insecurity; Venezuelan Holodomor
Trump’s NAFTA Problems There is a lengthy list of problems and hurdles related to the Trump Administration’s trade agreement with Mexico but here are a few to think about: Substance Puffery: When it comes to agriculture, the new agreement is weak beer. The Administration&rsquo...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
Outlook for Negotiation Week; Notable Global Policy Developments
Outlook for Negotiation Week China-U.S.: Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen meets with U.S. Treasury Under Secretary David Malpass in an effort to set a course for resolving the trade war. Treasury’s involvement may be related to the fact that the tariff war is causing macroec...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the 29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...
Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts
Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...
Interstate Pig Rivalry; Not Sweet
Interstate Pig Rivalry Farmers receive some state-level protections from NIMBYism (not in my backyard) in that someone cannot generally move next to a farm and then complain about odors. However, what about a new pig farm opening next door to a pre-existing landowner? Federal courts have been r...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Costs; U.S. Soybean Forecast; Soymeal Market Access in India
Higher Costs and Lower Profits for Brazilian Soybean Farmers in 2019 An analyst at Brazil’s investing banking firm Itaú BBA, Guilherme Bellotti, is predicting that the country’s soybean farmers will see higher input costs and lower profits in the next growing season versus th...
Naha Tug-of-Trade; Corporate Food Fascism; Unpronounceable but Safe; Pleasantly Low Hypoxia
Naha Tug-of-Trade U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi meet next week (9 August) in Washington for the first time under the “free, fair and reciprocal” (FFR) trade talk framework established by their bosses. T...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It’s been an interesting week with the following highlights: - USDA’s $12 billion farm rescue plan (income redistribution) didn’t find many supporters. Details of how the cash will be spread around are still very sketchy. Even some of the major commodity groups continue to sug...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Glut Supply of Milk Prompts GOI to Offer Export Incentive When the state government of Maharashtra reduced the the cooperatives’ purchase price of milk from farmers to Rs.18/lit, a drop of over 21.73 percent from Rs.23/lit, private players lowered the prices offered to farmers outside of...
Ag Review - July 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Crusher Woes; Pakistan’s Soy Imports; India’s Vegoil Situation…
Chinese Soy Crusher Files for Bankruptcy The Chinese firm Shandong Sunrise Group, a soybean importer and processor as well as an independent petroleum refiner, filed for bankruptcy last Friday. It attributed this action to losses in crush margins. Crushers in Shandong Province are currently los...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Policy Changes May Not Ease Pressure on Sugar Sector Immediately Changes in ethanol prices, including that of B-Heavy molasses as an input for making the fuel, do not mean that India will become self-sufficient in supplies and fulfil the demand of the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP). Fur...
Oilseed Highlights: July WASDE; U.S. Soy Sales
Key Oilseed Highlights in USDA WASDE Report To say USDA made major changes to its supply and distribution forecasts for the soybean sector in today’s WASDE report is an understatement. Following are key highlights from the report: MY 2017/18 U.S. soybean exports were raised by 20 million...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...
Tariffs, but It’s NTBs; Measuring War; Other Distortions; Bye-Bye Pruitt
Tariffs, but It’s NTBs Additional retaliatory tariffs were applied by Mexico today, and another round of U.S. tariffs will be applied to China at the stroke of midnight. Soon there will be more retaliatory tariffs and, presumably, counter-retaliatory tariffs. Two-thirds of U.S. agricultur...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Higher MSP; Soy Updates for Brazil and China
India Raises Minimum Support Price for Oilseeds and Other Crops The government of India (GOI)yesterday announced new higher minimum support prices (MSPs) for soybeans and other crops. The increases averaged about 25 percent versus only 3-4 percent in past years. Because of upcoming elections in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Rupee and Higher Input Costs Make Agriculture a Tough Choice Two developments that the government of India (GOI) had not anticipated are higher crude oil prices and the rupee falling against the U.S. dollar. In discussions with the U.S. regarding market access, India moved to impose saf...
Fixing Farm Supports; Not Stumbling; Saving GMOs; De-Globalization
Fixing Farm Supports The best defense is an offense, and China and India are demanding that the rich countries reduce their farm support payments. The demand is rather rich given that producer support estimates (PSEs) have fallen in the rich countries at the same time they’ve skyrocketed...
Ag Review - June 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. meat industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Trade Fight Dustup; Transshipping Adds Cost; Wetlands Reform
Trade Fight Dustup Constituencies impacted by retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries are starting to doubt the wisdom of Trump trade policy. The business community’s angst with Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach is palpable. The U.S. Senate Finance Committee will consider legis...
Ag Subsidies Reform; EPA Disappoints; Interstate Wreck
Ag Subsidies Reform China and India are asking the WTO to immediately reduce the Amber Box agricultural subsidies that have been historically utilized by the rich countries but not developing countries. They call for addressing the asymmetry between the developed and developing countries. The l...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Tariffs; Brazil’s Soy Area; U.S. Biodiesel, India’s Soybeans; Ukrainian Rapeseed
China Eliminates Animal Feed Tariffs for Five Countries The Chinese government announced today that it will eliminate tariffs on imports of soybeans, soymeal, rapeseed, and fishmeal from Bangladesh, India, Laos, South Korea and Sri Lanka on 1 July. It apparently believes that this will help mee...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Falling Soymeal Prices May Move Up if Exports Continue Soybean and soymeal prices moved lower last week but had some upward movement near its end, and they are stable now due to slow poultry sector demand as well as international cues. However, world prices are still lower. The Indian soybean s...
Trade War Endgame; Laudable Reorg; Mixt
Trade War Endgame Starting the trade war was “easy” for Mr. Trump, sustaining it will become more difficult for domestic political reasons. That fact was revealed by this week’s Senate Finance Committee hearing during which its members expressed skepticism about the trade acti...
Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Prices; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Exports
Falling Palm Oil Prices Reach Two-Year Low Palm oil prices are declining because of anemic demand and the market turmoil caused by the U.S.-China trade dispute. Today the September palm oil futures price on the Malaysian futures exchange fell for the fourth consecutive day to the equivalent of...
Predictable Trade War; Owed Freebies; Jurisdictional Meat; Sweet Natural Duplicity
Predictable Trade War After the Shanghai Composite Index plunged in value, the headlines say that the Chinese were “caught off guard” by President Trump’s announcement of counter-retaliatory tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports. Wall Street was also supposedly surprised...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Tariff Impact on Upper Midwest; India’s Soyoil Tariff
Chinese Tariffs Impact on Upper Midwest Soybean Farmers Barring a settlement to the current trade dispute, China is expected to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans effective 6 July. It appears the situation may intensify after President Trump yesterday threatened to implement additional...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Sales; U.S. Soy; Indian Vegoil Tariffs; Brazil’s Strike Aftermath
China Sells Reserve Soybeans China’s National Grain Trade Center today announced the government sold 192,324 MT of reserve stock soybeans at auction. They were sold at 3,043 yuan/MT ($476/MT), only 1.4 percent above the minimum sales price of 3,000 yuan/MT. The volume sold was approximate...
U.S.-Canada Road Forward; Limits of Tariffs; Real Ag Problems
U.S.-Canada Road Forward Donald Trump initially thought that U.S. agriculture was a problem for him since the sector was so paranoid about trade retaliation that it cried out loudly for him to “do no harm.” Now he has come to realize that it presents some of the best examples of pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA estimates this month that U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 will include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush for 2017/18. Higher global soybean production is partly offset by lower rapeseed an...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Exceeds Estimates; Open Market Prices Drop As of 4 June 2018, 34.724 MMT of wheat had been procured for 2018/19 by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies, 8.51 percent more than the government of India’s (GOI’s) fixed target of 32 MMT. For reference...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Tariffs; China’s Drought; Brazil’s Soybean Exports
India Expected to Raise Vegoil Tariff Rates Undisclosed sources in India’s government have told Reuters that officials are considering a hike in the tariff rates for some edible oils in the next few days. They apparently referenced soyoil, rapeseed and sunflower oil specifically. The curr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn and Soymeal Exports Could Keep Prices High Indian corn is competitive and finding markets in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Vietnam continues to import Indian corn in containers at $220-225/MT delivered. This price is compared to U.S. and South American corn at $230/MT delivered. Bangladesh impor...
Macron Solution; NAFTA Ultimatum; Regulated Market; Sweet it Ain’t
Macron Solution French President Emmanuel Macron correctly reacted to the U.S. imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum by calling for an overhaul of the WTO. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that “everyone agrees that the WTO needs to be reformed.” Neither, though, of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...
Ag Review - May 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Sugar Production Keeping Prices Low India’s sugar production could reach 31.5 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association (ISMA). The mills in Uttar Pradesh are still crushing sugarcane and may continue to do so until the end of the month. The higher-than-normal pr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 May 2018 Rising minimal prices on the domestic market, driven in part by high demand from processors and growing prices for processed products, caused average prices to increase. The average milling wheat export price fell $2/MT to $213/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s Vegetable Oil Demand and Imports Both Higher in 2017/18 India’s overall vegetable oil imports reached 15.573 MMT for 2017/18 (March-April), a 9.53 percent increase from 14.217 MMT the previous year. This included 15.181 MMT of edible oil and 0.392 MMT of nonedible oil, up fr...
First Ever CN; KL Opportunity
First Ever CN The Trump administration is showing that it plans to be aggressive on trade in unique ways. Previous administrations have imposed tariffs on imports (Obama on tires, G.W. Bush on steel), but this week the U.S. became the first country to use the WTO’s counter-notification (C...
WASDE Soy Highlights; Soy Export Sales
May WASDE Soy Highlights Today USDA released its May WASDE report, which includes its first forecasts for MY 2018/19. While almost certain to vary from what actually will occur, they do provide a better understanding of USDA analysts’ perspective. First, following are key changes in...
WASDE Soybeans
The 2018/19 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2017/18. The soybean crop is projected at 4,280 million bushels, down 112 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. With higher beginning...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soy Imports; Damaged Ship Berth; Argentine Rain
VAT Reduction Causes Chinese Soybean Imports to Decline in April Chinese soybean imports fell to only 6.9 MMT last month, down 13.7 percent from April 2017 and less than analysts’ projections of about 8.5 MMT. The main cause of the decline was a reduction in the value-added tax (VAT) on s...
Asynchrony and Hypocrisy; Amara’s Law
Asynchrony and Hypocrisy The WTO held a full membership meeting today at which Director General Roberto Azevêdo urged members to tackle systemic issues. Chief among his and a cadre of countries’ concerns was U.S. “protectionism” and Washington’s blockage of appoint...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the government for an intervention. The arrears owed to farmers had reached $2.98 billion at the end of March 2018, and the government of India (G...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Inspections; Canadian Plantings; Tighter Global Soyoil Stocks
Higher USDA Soybean Inspections Last Week USDA reported on Monday that 679,379 MT of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, up 44.3 percent from the previous week. Of that amount, 216,040 MT were destined to China. It was notable that 115,652 MT were out of the Gulf as relatively fe...
Import, Not Just Export; Missing Consumers; Attack on Scale; Miscellaneous Policy Shorts
Import, Not Just Export The Indian government is developing a new national agricultural trade policy that is intended to boost the country’s export of food and agricultural products. Exports have been variable since, under the Essential Commodities Act, the government imposes export restr...
Stats Canada Surprises!
Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola acreage is forecast to drop 7 percent from 2017, well below the trade’s pre-report guesses. This is likely the result of last year&rsqu...
Ag Review - April 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Wheat Procurement Could Be Problematic In the first three weeks of the wheat procurement drive, state and central agencies have acquired more than 20 MMT at the set price of Rs.17,350/MT ($262/MT), which is higher than last year. Procurement is up in Uttar Pradesh and Haryana against la...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; Indian Monsoon; Braziian Soy Production
NOPA’s March Soybean Crush a Record Monthly High Yesterday the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its monthly crush report for March. It indicated 171.858 million bushels (4.68 MMT) of soybeans were crushed, up 18.8 million bushels (10.9 percent) from March 2017 and t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
Senator Chamberlain; Catharsis and Anecdote; Go India!
Senator Chamberlain The Trump administration proposes to compensate American farmers for any adverse fallout from its efforts to secure greater trading rights abroad. With the courage of a multi-decade member of Congress, U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), chairman of the Senate Agriculture C...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report
Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. applies a similar tariff on imports from that country has caused soybean importers and exporters to quickly realign sales a...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - primarily due to Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway strikes in France that have created a logistics problem in moving grain. This has been further compounded by a sudden port worker strike in Rou...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Drip, Drip, Drop; Populist Modi
Drip, Drip, Drop USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue told his audience at Michigan State University this week that the Trump administration’s trade policy approach will not sabotage the agriculture sector and that it will not “be a pawn in this issue.” With China’s announcement...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Shows Deficit While the government of India (GOI) has forecast the 2017/18 soybean crop at 11.39 MMT, the trade and industry is projecting 7.2-7.5 MMT. Domestic crushers have procured 0.1 MMT from various African origins (mainly Ethiopia) in recent months as th...
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Tough and Crazy; Ethanol Rescue; Functional Congress; Export only Agriculture
Tough and Crazy The EU issued its 10 pages of proposed retaliation products in response to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and now U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström are discussing “mutually acceptable outcomes&rd...
China Differences; Might at WTO; Hiding Behind the Law
China Differences A hog slaughter plant was rejected in the U.S. farm state of Nebraska for not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) reasons, but scale production is viewed totally differently in China. Three companies there have formed a “strategic cooperation deal” to produce 4 million Landrace...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is adjusting its ration card system, raising the value from $1.17/month to $2.78/month due to increases in local prices. It is also going to issue the cards by population segment to avoid some of the current problems with misusage. Most...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have continued to fall. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) spot price is down and expected to move lower as harvest nears. Old sto...
Moral-Based Trade II; Data Dump; Conference Fever
Moral-Based Trade II The European Parliament (EP) has passed a resolution calling for the inclusion of gender equality goals in free trade agreements. As WPI has noted in the past, the addition of labor and environmental obligations in trade agreements highlighted the risk of a slippery slope i...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian and Chinese Soybean Imports
India Importing Record Volume of Soybeans High domestic soybean prices in India coupled with a smaller domestic crop in 2017 is causing processors in that country to import a record volume of soybeans this year. Reports indicate Indian firms have contracted to import up to 100,000 MT since Dece...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good recovery in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the sugar industry expects 2017/18 sugar production to reach 29.2 MMT, a record. That is...
Market Commentary
President Trump signed a proclamation this afternoon establishing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum over the objection of many Republicans in Congress and the U.S. business community, excluding steel companies. Canada, the largest exporter of steel to the U.S., and Mexico will be temporari...
Why Trump Wants Trade War; Beggar Farm Policy; Heavy Pruning for Finance
Why Trump Wants Trade War The U.S. media is emphasizing the impending harm from steel and aluminum tariffs to be imposed by President Donald Trump. These include Europe’s threat to retaliate with tariffs on Kentucky bourbon, Wisconsin motorcycles and Hollywood movies. Swedish Prime Minist...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Drought;, U.S. Soybean Sales to China; Indian Tariffs
No Relief for Argentine Crops Some meteorologists indicate this year’s summer growing season is turning out to be the driest in Argentine history. The only saving grace is that the soils were mostly very moist at planting time, and it will be a while before the drought’s impact is e...
Trump Ready for Trade War
During the 2016 presidential campaign, we noted that one key of the Trump Trade Doctrine was that trade policy must “strengthen the U.S. manufacturing base.” Also noted was that there was no mention of agricultural commodities or services, two of the largest export sectors in the U...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Second Advance Production Estimates Project Record Food Grain Production The government of India (GOI) released the Second Advanced Estimates for Agricultural Production on 27 February 2018, which projected the country’s total food grain production in 2017/18 at 277.49 MMT, 2.94 MMT more...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine and Brazilian Soy Crops; U.S. Export Sales; India’s Oilseeds
Forecast for Argentine Soybean Crop Reduced Again The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today lowered its forecast for the Argentine 2018 soybean crop from 47 MMT to 44 MMT because of the ongoing drought. It indicated conditions continue to worsen and seemed to suggest there could be a further reduct...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices Up, but DDGS Not Available as Alternative The Soybean Oil Processors Association (SOPA) has again trimmed its estimate for India’s 2017/18 soybean production (harvest in October-November 2017), reducing the previous forecast of 9.15 MMT to 8.35 MMT. The government of India...
Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation
Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...
Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious
Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar from 50 percent to 100 percent. The increase was a demand from the sugar industry as sugar prices were below the cost of production. Both carry...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Forecast Revisions; Brazil’s Weather Woes; Export Sales
USDA Cuts Forecast for U.S. Soybean Exports Again and Revises Other Estimates Today USDA unsurprisingly further reduced its forecast for U.S. soybean exports in 2017/18 by an additional 60 million bushels (1.633 MMT) to 2.1 billion bushels (57.16 MMT). With no other changes, the result was a 60...
WASDE Soybeans
2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. Wit...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy; South American Transport Problems; Ukrainian Soy; India Soymeal
Critical Week for Argentine Soybeans Weather forecasters are predicting substantial rains across Argentina’s driest areas on Friday and Saturday of this week with some showers at the end of the following week. However, the predicted rainfall is far from certain as are the amounts and area...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Corn Area; Prices Stable but High The 2017/18 rabi (summer crop) corn area, which will be harvested in March-April 2018, totaled 1.5739 million hectares as of 19 January. While that is marginally higher than the 1.535 million hectares of a year ago, it is slightly lower than the seaon...
Trade Policy Confusion; Meat Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi decried protectionism at the World Economic Forum today. In a speech widely perceived to be an attack on Donald’s Trump’s “America First” policy, Modi follows similar exhortations by Chinese President Xi Jinping...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s supply ministry has announced that the government’s wheat storage capacity will be expanded to 3.9 MMT by 2022. While first announced last fall, this now seems to be “officially” approved. Some of it seems to be...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Continue to Tumble Sugarcane processors (mills) should pay farmers for their stocks within two weeks of the harvest/purchase, and the government of India (GOI) had increased the prices in 2017 for sugar year 2017/18 (October-September). There is a lag period as the sugar is process...
Standard-Less Identity; Heritage Milk; On Ice; India Pipe Dream
Standard-Less Identity The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued a new strategic roadmap that indicates it will revisit the standards of identity for various food products. This could involve tough decisions about whether plant-based drinks can be called milk as well as the issue of clean...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The first shipment of 2,200 MT of Indian wheat has arrived in Kabul, Afghanistan via Iran’s Chabahar port. Another 60,000 MT are reported to be in Chabahar, the first lot of an estimated 1.1 MMT destined for various locations in Afghanis...
WASDE Soymeal
"Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate.... Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly of...
WASDE Soybeans
"Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly offset by lower production for Argentina and the United States. The Brazil soybean crop is inc...
WASDE Corn
"This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and greater stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million from last month as an increase in yield to a recor...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Bumper Wheat Crop Expected, but Imports Still Cheaper Available records indicate the area under wheat in 2017/18 totals 28.3 million hectares, down about 4.77 percent from last year and less than the 30.2 million hectares planted under normal circumstances. While the area is smaller in Uttar Pr...
WASDE Wheat
"Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Wheat feed and residual use f...
Government Skewing; BPA Reversal; Conceivably Paris/NAFTA; AgTech Invest
Government Skewing The Indian government proclaims food insecurity and demands the right to build a domestic food stockpiling mechanism. At the same time, the country consistently runs a large food trade surplus. Now New Delhi is planning a program to increase the production and export of high-...
Cooperative Evolution; Safety in Numbers; How Sweet?; CAP Cuts; Banning Competitors
Cooperative Evolution Farmer cooperatives in the U.S. were historically conflicted between serving their farmer members and operating as competitive business enterprises. The recent change in U.S. tax law favoring cooperatives comes at an odd time because industrialization in agriculture has fo...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Soy Updates; Minnesota Soybeans; Indian Soymeal
Rains Impacting South American Soy Crops Farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso are beginning to harvest early-maturing soybeans, but almost daily rainfall is preventing any progress. There have been several days of stoppage in some areas, while they are only able to harvest for a few ho...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Supplies Keeping Sugar Prices in Check India’s sugar production reached 10.3 MMT as of 31 December 2017, a 25.36 percent increase from the total 8.2 MMT on the same date in 2016. It totaled 3.8 MMT in Maharashtra, 3.33 MMT in Uttar Pradesh and 1.62 MMT in Karnataka. This boost corr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s government has announced that the official customs exchange rate will remain at the current level of 16 EGP against the USD for January 2018; the actual currency rate is now about 17.69 EGP to the USD. A steady rate certainly helps grain importer...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices on the Rise Demand for soymeal and soyoil is robust, but the soybean supply is limited and slow. The government of India’s (GOI’s) first advance estimates in September 2017 put soybean production at 12.217 MMT. However, the trade’s estimate was much lower...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Under Pressure as Production Rises India’s 2017/18 sugar production totaled 6.94 MMT as of 15 December 2017, up 5.346 MMT (29.81 percent) versus the same date last year. The sugar manufacturing/cane crushing was delayed in 2016, and it began this year on 1 October. With highe...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Issues; India’s Vegoil Imports
Argentina Apparently Seeks U.S. Deal Argentina’s decision to raise the export tax on biodiesel from zero to 8 percent (see Ag Perspectives, 14 December) is apparently an effort to get the U.S. to eliminate or reduce the countervailing and antidumping duties imposed on such shipments...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Cotton Production Expected; Prices Slowly Moving Up: The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB)’s estimate of India’s 2017/18 cotton production is 37.7 million bales (170 kg each), up 9.27 percent from 34.5 million bales in 2016/17.It is projected to be down in states that include Mahar...
UN-ification Drives Sectoralism
India coalesced the developing nations in 2001 and forced the rich countries to accept the “Development” part in the WTO’s Doha Development Round. Now that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has figured out that development as pushed by India means the rich countries...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Import Duty Helps Boost Oilseed Prices The increase in the import duty on vegetable oils, which the government of India (GOI) imposed in mid-November 2017 as farmers complained that oilseed prices were below the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), appears to be having the desired results. The...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy; Indian Soymeal, etc.
Brazilian Farmers Investing More in Soybeans, Less in Corn Because of low corn prices and the necessity to treat soybeans for Asian rust, farmers in Mato Grosso as well as other states have apparently decided that it is wiser to attempt to maximize soybean yields than use their limited capital...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Dryness; ITC Confirms Duties on Biodiesel; Indian Rapeseed
Argentina Dryness Currently the Soybean Trade’s Key Focus It is well known by observers of the global soybean market over the last decade that one of the key factors to watch is the weather situation in Argentina, which has a history of being quite variable from one year to next. Pe...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Sowing Slow; Higher Prices Remain Stable The rabi wheat sowing has reached 11.066 million hectares thus far, down 12.41 percent from 12.635 million hectares at the same time last year. The government of India (GOI) had doubled the wheat import duty in early November (near the start of the...