WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
WASDE Wheat Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price of wheat is reduced by $0.05 per bushel to $5.55.World trade is 1.7 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Coercion Beholder; Down Under’s Demands
Coercion Beholder U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart famously said in a 1964 case that he could not define hard core pornography “But I know it when I see it.” The G-7 called for an end to boycotts of purchasing Japanese farm products, calling it a form of coercion. Meanwhile...
Market Commentary: End of Week Reshuffle
The only certainty of the past week is that soymeal is going stratospheric. But corn, soybeans, and wheat took a breather today. For the week: December corn gained 0.456 percent December soymeal rose 8.69 percent November soybeans gained 1.71 percent December soyoil lost 1.82...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Volatile Wheat Suppliers
The FAS attache in Canberra expects Australia’s wheat production to fall by 25 percent in 2023/24. This follows three years of record sized crops. Lower prices and drier conditions are the cause. Of the six major wheat exporters, Australia has the highest variation in its production and e...
Australian Barley Rebound
Australia announced that an agreement had been reached with China that will end the latter’s punitive tariffs on barley from Down Under. For its part, China said it is willing to work with Australia to normalize relations. In May 2020, China imposed tariffs of 80.5 percent on Australian b...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA
Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreign policy. However, China has created a bit of an ANZ split. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited China on the 50th anniversary of...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Prices Continue Bullish
Live cattle negotiated prices in the south hit $155/cwt this week, while in the north they reached $157, and still some sellers held out for more. Negotiated dressed prices averaged $245/cwt. Slaughter last week was down due to the Thanksgiving holiday but was still higher than the...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat
Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...
China Tensions and Trade
Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called “friendly” countries. Starting in 2020 when Australia called for an investigation into COVID’s origin, Beijing began an effort...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected sea...
Market Commentary: Definitively Lower
The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...
Market Commentary: Weak Energies Weigh on Soy Complex; Wheat Ignores Bearish Technicals
Continued declines in energy markets pressured the CBOT on Friday and reduced fund buying interest. Soyoil futures fell lower and to near trading range support on weaker energy markets and pulled soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures were higher as traders pointed to strong demand as reason to...
WASDE Wheat
The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...
Beef: Where East Meets West
Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...
Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline
The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the day, but that effort was met with stiff selling pressure and more cash selling from farmers. Harvest activity has increased across the east...
Beer Pressures
Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor, and transportation. Already elevated malt prices started rising more in mid-summer when the impact of North American drought conditions be...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boosted yield potential. Consequently, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its crop estimate from 19.2 to 19.8 MMT for MY 2021/22. Almost...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies to End Strong Week; Hogs Rally while Cattle Fall
Corn and wheat futures were higher again on Friday, but volume was waning as funds slowed their buying pace. The soy complex saw continued but mild strength as exports remain a headwind for soybeans and meal. This week’s market action saw surprising strength due to demand-side factors (no...
Notable TFP Changes
U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for the Future of Agriculture & Farm Europe. Mr. Vilsack has taken the position that increasing productivity is the pathway to sustainability...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress” harvesting 2021 summer crops and planting 2022 winter crops. The Commission increased its forecast of summer crop yields, with the 2021...
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led by wheat. Minneapolis wheat trades into contract highs, and oats have traded into all-time record highs. Matif wheat made n...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missing from the report was any mention of the TRIPS agreement hindering vaccinations against disease. The reason for its absence is the mounting...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
Future Industry Impacts; Minimum Wage and Farm Labor
Future Industry Impacts The push toward shorter supply chains and plant-based food products will have perverse impacts on the food marketing industry. For example, eating local runs directly counter to the use of geographic indicators, which seeks to protect and promote the sale of food in non-...
Value versus Value-added in Grapes
The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quantity is a relative recent phenomenon. Meanwhile, the EU’s wine production has been dropping. India is the second largest producer of g...
Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns
While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farms in the world. However, consolidation reached a peak in 2010 and the consolidation curve has flattened or even slightly declined. Lik...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively w...
Update on Cyber Attack on Meat
This morning we posted an alert on the cyber-attack on JBS IT infrastructure in North America and Australia. The attack happened over the weekend and the company reported the incident to the White House and USDA. The U.S. government is operating under the assumption that this was similar to the...
Cyber Security: New Commodity Market Risk?
Just three weeks after the Colonial Pipeline that supplies about 45 percent of the gasoline to the U.S. East Coast was hit by cyber hackers, the largest meat packer in the world was hit by a cyber-attack over the weekend. Coincidence? Or have hackers gained an appreciation for the chaos that ca...
AM Outlook - Soy Complex Gains on Grains
NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published on May 28, 2021. Good morning - Prices traded higher overnight led by soyoil, which stabilized bean trade. Soybean bull spreads are working again, finding support after Monday's selloff. Morning trends feature beans gai...
Uncertain Values
British farmers are upset that their government may give access to the UK market to beef from Australia. They argue that they are not competitive against their Aussie peers. The relative competitiveness is difficult to understand based on public data. Based on dated numbers from the FAO, Brazil...
Reliability versus Value in Beef
Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. However, Russia has proven that wheat importing countries care more about value (quality and price) than they do about reliability of specific su...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports. All wheat production is proj...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook
It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame
Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection for nascent Chinese winemakers but political punishment imposed on Canberra. However, it is concurrently punishment imposed on Chinese consum...
Risk of Precaution; Challenging Poor Governance
Risk of Precaution Several European countries stopped vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s product out of an abundance of caution that it was causing blood clots in some recipients. The EU’s medicines regulator now says there is little risk (EMA data shows a 0.0006% rate of blood clots f...
More to Burn, Less Trade
As the border carbon tax idea picks up steam it leads to all kinds of possibilities for expanding use of border measures to extract policy changes. One target being discussed is the treatment of women, but they could be expanded to policy measures that distort trade, such as labor laws, tax pol...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Au...
Wheat Volatility
ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...
Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges
Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...
Beef with Beef Prices
The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...
WASDE Wheat
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stoc...
All/Any Trade Agreements; He’s Back!; Helping Hurts
All/Any Trade Agreements University of Sydney sociologist and foreign policy columnist Salvatore Babones calls the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), “a China-style trade agreement: platitudinous and ineffective.” Aussies do not have a lot of warm fe...
WASDE Wheat
November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20. This increase is based m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains
The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields
Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Looking at his campaign promises potentially impacting agriculture there is a lot of repetition from the past, a past that was mostly different...
CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments
CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...
Friday Intrigue
Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks: U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...
European Market Analysis
Regional News More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT. Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...
Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples
Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...
Thoughts from the August WASDE
Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report. Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary
Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...
The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand
The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...
The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes
The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about. Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...
Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters
Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India’s c...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Changes in USDA WASDE Report; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Takeover of Vicentin
Today’s USDA WASDE report did not include any major unexpected changes in the supply and demand situation for the soy sector. U.S. soybean exports in 2019/20 were reduced, but U.S. soybean crush was increased as were U.S. soyoil exports. Overall, the report was relatively neutral to sligh...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower on Tuesday as good crop conditions across the U.S. and surprisingly large Brazilian crop forecasts pressured the markets. Cattle futures defied the bearish trend and close higher. Funds started selling grains at the open, triggering sell-stops in soybeans and soymeal...
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Market Commentary
The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the play with substantial volume trying to get in even as there was substantial volume working against soybeans. With a three-day holiday weekend...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks. The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage. The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with short covering that lifted corn and soybeans higher early in the day. Firmer crude oil prices were supportive initially. Row crops ended up trading both sides of unchanged but finished slightly higher ahead of First Notice day tomorrow. Wheat was the bigger story of the day...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...
Comfortable and Safe; Adjusting Risk-Benefit; Miscellany
Comfortable and Safe Food processors are reporting brisk sales of their processed products. Nestlé’s Hot Pockets are selling lot hot cakes; Nielsen reports that canned soup sales are up 37 percent, canned meat rose 60 percent and frozen pizza is up 51 percent. Products that were mo...
Market Commentary
The biggest news of the day is the fact that May crude oil futures traded to negative prices, posting a daily low of negative $40.34 (-$40.32) before settling slightly higher. U.S. crude oil storage capacity is basically nonexistent right now, helping create the price weakness and today’s...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s wheat outlook – is for lower U.S. exports, reduced domestic use, and increased ending stocks. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, implied less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters than previously estimated. U.S. wheat e...
Market Commentary
There were several reasons to be bearish today and not much countering the mood. USDA’s Outlook released this morning framed the year ahead as fundamentally stable and an improvement over 2019. It will be for wheat with prices forecast to increase 8 percent and soybeans with a 1 percent r...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 February at 102.4 percent of last year. If accurate, at about 11.85 million head, that would be the largest Feb...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Market Commentary
Overnight news that Australia’s 2019/20 wheat crop will be smaller than expected set the stage for a sharp rally in the CBOT wheat markets. Morning calls were for wheat to open higher and pull corn along with it, which is exactly what happened. Few, if any, analysts, however, expected whe...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports that the only change for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low. ...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets finished the week mostly higher with short covering in corn and soymeal spilling over to other markets. Vice President Pence noted today that China is committed to making its utmost effort to fulfill its Phase One agreements, a fact which brought comfort to the ag markets. End user...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with a weaker tone and kept that mentality through the day. Soyoil firmed against soymeal and soybeans while corn and soybeans traded mostly lower in tandem. Wheat and livestock futures fell back as well amid uncertainty about China’s commodity “shopping list”...
Livestock Round-Up
Cattle Market to Tighten in 2020 Going into 2020, the beef cattle inventory is likely to be down. The cattle inventory data will be released by USDA on 31 January, but based on 2019 trends, it is likely to be down from the herd as of January 2019, which, at 94.8 million head was slightly larger...
Last Laugh; Mediation over Arbitration
Last Laugh The actual language of the announced phase one agreement between the U.S. and China remains unknown but a reported commitment to boosting imports of American farm products could (speculatively) have notable side effects on infrastructure. The first involves grain handling capacity, t...
WASDE Wheat
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Wheat estimates: U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million. Hard Red Winter and Durum exports are each raised 10 million bushels, and HRS is raised 5 million. With reduced supplies and higher use, 2019/20 ending stocks are...
Livestock Round Up
Considering China Situation Impact Hog producers are awaiting a breakthrough in prices while packers’ margins remain high. The promise of increased exports has not made its way to the hog market – at least not yet. So, what is the outlook? The situation is the reverse from bac...
Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance
The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously, ASF has had a demonstrably larger impact on China than did BSE on Europe, and yet EU beef production and consumption have never fully recov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. According to Australian information, about 13 percent of all farmland is foreign owned. One problem that has come to light is that there seems t...
Market Commentary
The CBOT featured early firming in the grains complex with nothing but lower prices for the soy complex. Early buy corn/sell soybeans spread trade set the course for lower soy products trade while wheat spent the day drifting lower. The weekly Export Inspections report showed the influenc...
USMCA Reckoning; Make My Brown Eyes Green; Not Such Free Traders
USMCA Reckoning USTR Robert Lighthizer and his Canadian and Mexican counterparts are meeting today to discuss the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Lighthizer will likely give a brief on the final demands by Democrats before allowing Congressional consideration of the trade pact. Key will be the la...
WIC to SNAP Lessons; Cheese Mountains; Spillover Subsidies
WIC to SNAP Lessons According to data published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report, obesity amongst 2-4-year old’s dropped significantly following USDA changes in the types of food and beverages subsidized under the Suppleme...
China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s
China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates: U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...
Wheat Over-Supported
Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reports: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30. Projected imports are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year (MY). Global wheat prices are expected to be restrained for the rest of the MY. The global outlook for wheat this month is for lower suppli...
Drought Shifting Consumption
Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific region says it is part of a longer-term meteorological trend. The change is most adversely impacting rice production and will likely benefit whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production. Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Production; Trade Breakthrough
Record Meat Production Red meat production hit a record high for April at 4.522 billion pounds, split almost evenly between beef at 2.262 billion pounds and pork at 2.692 billion pounds. It has reached 17.859 billion pounds so far in 2019, which is 102 percent of the same period in 2018. Broile...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. 2019 planting season is grim, and there is little or no relief in sight based on the latest weather forecasts. The Corn Belt and northern Plains will stay wet and cool for the foreseeable future. Most of the market chatter has been about the potential reduction in U.S. corn planted acr...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
USDA Report Bearish Corn, Wheat and Soybeans
Today’s USDA supply and demand estimates increased old crop ending stocks of U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans. No adjustments were made to the 2019 corn and soybean planted acres numbers, and the yield estimates for those crops are very close to record-high levels. The biggest surprise in U...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey says it will be a “key player in global grain” with plans to greatly expand storage/handling facilities and a long-term goal of becoming a hub for grain shipments out of the Black Sea region. It has been a major wheat flour...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As of 15 April, Egypt had bought approximately 365,000 MT of local wheat against its purchase target of 3.6 MMT. Wheat buyers from Morocco and Tunisia were in the U.S. last week to closely examine its wheat infrastructure. The group visi...
Hog Wild Pork Markets
After a few weeks out of the market, China purchased 77,700 MT of U.S. pork last week. That makes it the number three destination (behind Mexico and Korea) for pork exports in 2019. Export sales totaled 90,700 MT, including to Korea (3,600 MT), Chile (2,900 MT), Japan (2,200 MT), Australia (1,8...
Policy Opportunities and Risks
Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...
Funds Slam the Markets
Last week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report confirmed that funds (i.e., managed money) continued to expand their short positions in corn, soybeans, soymeal and wheat to either record-large levels or very nearly so. They had very little opposition to pressing the short side before last...
WASDE Wheat
According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports. Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...
No Help for the Bulls
The February and March USDA WASDE (supply and demand) estimates rarely make any significant changes as they come during a dead spot in world markets and growing seasons. The only time they might be bullish is when their release occurs amid a severe weather problem in Brazil and Argentina. That...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat export tender of last week has reportedly received a poor response. It was said that 12 traders participated, and their offered prices were below what had been anticipated with the highest bid at $219/MT for 25,000 MT an...
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China; U.S. Meat Exports to Japan; Data Catch-Up; Farm Income and Expenses
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China Cases of classical swine fever (CSF), also known as hog cholrea, have been detected in five prefectures in Japan, most recently in the centrally-located Aichi Prefecture. So far, about 15,000 pigs are in the process of being culled. (Correction: It wa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Last Thursday Egypt reopened the five ports that had been closed the previous Sunday because of weather conditions. Meanwhile, Egypt has closed several poultry farms due to their failure to provide samples for analysis in the effort to control...
Plurilaterals for NTBs; Leaky Law; Big State Power
Plurilateral for NTBs Australia has launched an effort to address the nontariff trade barriers (NTBs) its exporters face. The Aussie beef industry says NTBs cost it A$3.4 billion per year and the nation’s grain growers curated a list of 54 such barriers across 15 markets. But there is no...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA also reported additional sales yesterday and today of 1,403,000 MT to that country, bringing the two-week total to 2.964 MMT. Trade sources sug...
Market Commentary
Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...
U.S. Export Prospects Improving
USDA trimmed the U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels (680,000 MT) in the December WASDE (supply & demand), but that wasn’t a surprise given the 9 percent lag in sales against a year ago. Its revised export goal is an 11 percent increase over last year. Export sales of har...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...
Oilseed Highlights: China and U.S. Soybean Imports; WASDE and the Soy Sector
China Apparently Deciding How Many U.S. Soybean to Import At their meeting in Buenos Aires, President Trump was able to get a commitment from President Xi to import a substantial volume of U.S. soybeans and other commodities during the 90-day truce in the trade war. Hong Kong’s South Chin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA notes the following about wheat: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.0 billion with all the reduction in Hard Red Winter (HRW) on historically low exports for thi...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government will be closed 5 December to honor the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States. Release of the government’ s various reports for the remainder of the week will be delayed by one business day as a result. Whatever excitement was created by last we...
Strong Holiday Season Start; Japan Trade
Holiday Season Starts Strong With a pipeline full of protein, seasonal holiday demand started strong with Thanksgiving. As of 31 October, cold storage stocks of turkey were lower than year-ago levels after the second consecutive month of drawdowns. The total pounds in freezers were 96 percent o...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The government of Pakistan is expected to announce the approval of wheat exports this week, which will be subject to a $100/MT subsidy. Experts say that this step is needed to both free u...
When All Else Fails, Talk About Weather
This is Thanksgiving week in the U.S., and the markets will be closed that day. However, this holiday has other implications such as the following: It is one of the busiest holiday travel periods of the year. It can be severely complicated by adverse weather because of winter conditions across...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower overnight following yesterday’s negative response to the somewhat bullish U.S. corn and wheat WASDE numbers. Both the U.S. and world soybean ending supply estimates were clearly bearish. Today’s session, however, saw the soybean market turn hi...
Where Did All That Corn Come From?
That is the question for this month’s WASDE. USDA accepted China’s massive adjustment in corn stocks plus a relatively small upward one in its wheat stocks. Both USDA and China also increased the latter’s corn carry-in by 143 MMT from the October estimate. In addition, USDA bo...
Market Commentary
Upon detecting the sharp increases in WASDE estimates of world corn and wheat production/stocks, computer trading programs launched sell orders that quickly sent futures prices tumbling (also noted in today’s separate analysis). Wheat futures prices fell 8-10 cents, soybean prices dropped...
The November WASDE
USDA/NASS cut the U.S. corn and yield estimates by 1.8 bushel/acre (BPA) and 1.0 BPA, respectively. Those reductions were well below the average minor changes expected by the trade. This resulted in production estimates that were also well below the average guesses reported by wire services. Cl...
Market Commentary
The midterm election has come and gone with the results about as predicted – a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. This will give the chattering classes (and President Trump) plenty to talk about, but the reaction of financial markets today belies a doom-and-gloom outlook. Grain and...
A Few Odds and Ends
It is midterm Election Day in the U.S., and the antipathy between Trump supporters and haters is generating more than the usual interest. Whatever the results may be, the campaign has emphasized the wide chasm that exists between the two sides. Current polling suggests that the Democrats will r...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. corn and soybean yields are so good that they will more than offset the lower harvest price calculations for the crop revenue insurance products. Remember that the (per acre) revenue guarantee calculation takes the actual 2018 yield times the percent of coverage times the price calculation...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday night session steady to just slightly higher, but wheat and corn closed this morning down a penny with soybeans 3-4 cents lower. Then during most of today’s session, corn was steady to slightly higher with wheat and soybeans lower. The following two major events...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. Chicago wheat traded as much as a dime higher with corn and soybeans up 3-4 cents and 6-8 cents, respectively. Overnight volume was nothing special, and none of the buying surfaced in today’s session. In fact, those same futures all t...
Market Commentary
Markets firmed up overnight with wheat trading 5-6 cents higher following yesterday’s big sell-off. Wheat then took off sharply higher in the first hour of trading this morning. The strength was attributed to a report that U.S. wheat was among the cheapest offers to Egypt. Corn followed w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of establishing a wheat hedging program to better protect against the volatility of international wheat prices. The finance ministry is said to be taking a very close look at how such a system cou...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Wheat Update; Bullish World Corn Numbers
Last Friday we updated our view of the tightening world wheat situation and how that will eventually force the wheat market to rally. It was noted in different market commentaries this morning that wheat prices in Australia have been steadily separating themselves from world prices. The result...
All the Ingredients - But No Dough
U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below). Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to r...
USDA’s October WASDE
After two months of bearish reports, there was a general feeling that USDA’s October WASDE, released today at noon (EDT), would add to that trend with even higher yields and production for U.S. corn and soybeans than the already huge September estimates. Moreover, USDA had to factor in th...
WASDE Wheat
The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat in October is larger supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat production is raised 7 million bushels to 1,884 million from the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 28. Projected imports increased 5 milli...
Census Bureau Exports
As noted before, it is the U.S. Census Bureau rather than USDA that keeps the official count of grain, soybean and soy product exports. USDA’s FGIS keeps a tab on the volume of grain and soybeans inspected for export each week, and its FAS operates its export sales reporting system. The l...
Markets Slogging Along
Wheat, corn and soybean markets are behaving like the corn and soybean harvests, continuing to slog along as if stuck in the mud. Perhaps that is the way it should be at this point in the marketing year. The U.S. still has 70 percent or so of what appears to be record corn and soybean crops sti...
Market Commentary
Tuesday’s rumors had the Russian government taking steps to slow the frantic pace of wheat exports. Today it became clear that it did act but not in a way that was expected. The government apparently has closed about 30 interior grain elevators in Rostov and Krasnodar for three months. Th...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Crop; Brazilian Biodiesel; EU and Australian Rapeseed
Higher Forecast for U.S. Soybean Crop INTL FCStone yesterday boosted its forecast for the U.S. soybean crop from 4.782 billion bushels (130.16 MMT) to 4.796 billion bushels (130.54 MMT), a revision based on the firm’s increased estimate for the average yield from 53.8 bushels/acre to 54 b...
Weather Markets in October?
World crop production has struggled in 2018 after five consecutive years of record output. The Northern Hemisphere growing season is basically now finished, and things didn’t go so well. World wheat and corn production were significantly affected by drought this past summer. That problem...
Market Commentary
This was an interesting start to October and the new quarter. Markets were quiet overnight with little price movement. However, that changed significantly at today’s openings with corn and soybeans turning sharply higher. Meanwhile, wheat futures continued to hover around unchanged. There...
Market Commentary
There was much for the markets to deal with today. It was the last day of September and the last day of the quarter; the drama over the Supreme Court nomination continues to play out in Washington; and there is still uncertainty over any possible shift to E15 from E10 that would increase ethano...
Trade Updates; Food Inflation and the Fed
China, Japan and Canada Trade Developments – or Not During an interview at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event in New York this week, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer said that since China joined the WTO 17 years ago, the bilateral trade relationsip has worked out for that...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures were all lower through most of the Sunday evening session. However, wheat futures turned slightly higher early this morning and continued that trading pattern when the day session opened, closing with gains of up to 5.25 cents. Soybeans continue to bear the brun...
Bullish News/Bearish Markets
It was an interesting week for market news versus market action. There were actually numerous, somewhat bullish news stories that generated little in the way of bullish market reaction, including the following: Wheat markets continue to absorb news of further declines in volume and quality by...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were lower overnight with corn trading fractionally higher. The big question today was whether yesterday’s strength in corn and soybean futures was anything more than a technical bounce off of recent lows or instead a reaction to bullish news. Corn maintained som...
Market Commentary
The overnight trade was quiet and uneventful with only small price changes. Soybeans traded up 2 cents, Chicago wheat was up about 3 cents, and corn hung around unchanged. That session did not prepare the markets for what was to come during the day when soybean and corn prices moved sharply hig...
Stepping Back, Looking Ahead
Perhaps there should be a rule that anyone whose business is analyzing any kind of market economics must be forced to take some time off and be totally removed from any contact with markets or the forces that move them. Aside from the other benefits derived from such vacations, time away from t...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Market Commentary
Pre-WASDE positioning sent the grains complex lower today, while livestock futures were under pressure from profit taking and lackluster cash markets. Fund managers are worried tomorrow’s report will be a repeat of the August WASDE and are paring back any long positions. It’s tough...
Here Come the USDA Reports
There are several things to watch for in USDA’s September production estimates and WASDE (supply/demand) revisions that will be released on 12 September at noon (EDT). Corn USDA caught the trade by surprise with its record U.S. corn yield estimate in August. No one seems to expect...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet overnight in very light trading volume. Everything started the Sunday evening session slightly lower, but wheat moved to small gains early this morning when French wheat futures opened higher. Among the factors impacting the markets this week will be USDA’s release of i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower again in the Sunday night session as well as throughout today. Corn and soybeans were still suffering a hangover from the Pro Farmer tour’s big estimates. Funds remain long Chicago wheat futures and have gotten crushed, and they continued to exit long positions today. U...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets traded a bit better overnight with wheat markets again lower. China’s “low-level” trade delegation went home with no evidence that any progress had been made in the trade talks. The Trump administration still says it is days (maybe hours) from announci...
Market Commentary
Wheat and corn were lower overnight, and the soy complex was firm. The weakness in wheat was caused by a bigger-than-expected fund long position coupled with a chance for rain in eastern Australia. Soybeans were firm on continued trade optimism. Corn was confused over whether to follow wheat or...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight and again today. The night session ended with wheat up 9-11 cents, corn steady to a half-cent higher and soybeans down 5 cents. There was none of yesterday’s excitement in the soy complex today. It seems the trade settled back to thinking it might still take a...
This Could Be the Start of Something Big
It’s been another interesting week in the grain and soy markets, and following are some of the reasons why: The Trump administration announced some level of trade talks with China will get underway before the end of the month, and that news sent soybean futures sharply higher Thursd...
Aussie Feeder Cattle Boom; Korea Offsetting China as Pork Destination
Aussie Feeder Cattle Boom The inventory of Australian cattle in feedlots is at a record high despite bullish grain prices Down Under. The drivers have been drought and a lack of suitable grazing pasture. The total at the end of June (via quarterly inventory reports) was 1.12 million head,...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...
Another Side of the Wheat Market
U.S. wheat futures have rallied and exceeded their most recent highs set in June 2017. Chicago December wheat is back pushing against the $6.00 level today as the long-term chart shows below: The ongoing late season drought in the EU carved a much bigger hole in EU crop production than anyone...
Market Commentary
Soybeans were lower overnight with wheat and corn slightly higher. That was also today’s pattern, except that wheat found good buying soon after today’s session opened and traded 12 to 16 cents higher in all three wheat markets for most of the day. It was more talk about how bad the...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big soybean rally was sponsored by a press report indicating the possibility that the U.S. and China might resume a formal discussion on the current trade conflict. Overnight price action suggested that the rally was overdone as soybean futures gave back more than one-third of...
Uncertain Times Ahead
We often say that uncertainty is the lifeblood of commodity futures markets. The greater its perceived level, the greater is the degree of price volatility. Any economic sector that heavily depends on weather (e.g., the production of agricultural commodities) is guaranteed a relatively high deg...
The World of Wheat in 2018/19
For countries that supply renewable agricultural commodities to world buyers, a more perfect world occurs during a year when global demand for a particular one of those is growing while its production in most other competitors declines. In a sense, that is what is happening in the world wheat m...
Market Commentary
The sharp jump in world wheat prices on the back of wheat production losses in Russia, the EU, Australia and elsewhere along with the government’s $12 billion aid package for farmers harmed by retaliation against President Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs are the topics of the d...
Wheat Fundamentals Are Getting Stronger
U.S. wheat fundamentals have been improving quickly over the past several months, although this wouldn’t be apparent by looking at prices. Some of the key changes in the wheat market involve the outlook for crops in key wheat-producing countries. Russia’s wheat crop will be at least...
Market Commentary
The quietude of yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets continued in the overnight trading session. Volume and price movement were limited with nothing significant to inject trading interest or volume into the markets, and prices stayed close to Wednesday’s closes. At this morning...
Things to Watch Going Forward
This week’s USDA WASDE and production estimates were not quite as bearish as they might have been for the following reasons: The corn and soybean yield estimates were not changed, but they could be revised in August based on the current excellent crop ratings coupled with a very good-loo...
The July WASDE
Thanks to USDA’s effort to project the effect of the Chinese tariffs on the U.S. soybean supply/demand for 2017/18 and 2018/19 as well as the expected weather-related production changes for various export competitors, this was easily the most anticipated July WASDE in many years. The trad...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading pushed corn and soybean prices mildly lower with more pronounced weakness in wheat. Good weather, high weekly crop condition ratings and expectations that USDA’s July WASDE (to be released Thursday) will be bearish discouraged buyers and kept pressure on futures prices...
USDA Will Increase Ending Supplies Thursday
USDA will release its updated U.S. and world production estimates at 12 p.m. (EDT) Thursday. Those for U.S. corn and soybeans will be larger than in the previous month’s report if for no other reason than USDA will increase planted acreage numbers to match the June planting estimates. Her...
Market Commentary
U.S. soybean, corn and wheat markets finished the night session up 1-2 cents despite the U.S./China trade war becoming a reality overnight. However, the soybean and soymeal markets opened strong today and moved to big gains by midmorning, putting the trade issues behind for at least today. Corn...
“D-Day” for Tariffs
Today is D-Day for the imposition of tariffs, and the U.S. implemented them on $34 billion worth of goods from China. That country then quickly followed suit. There has been enough talk about this impending trade war, and everyone in the world is probably tired of chatting and reading about it...
Market Commentary
Today’s post-holiday market was not the frenzied affair that sometimes follows the 4th of July. There was no overnight session (due to the holiday), and trading seemed relatively subdued when it began this morning. It remained quiet even though wheat and soybeans closed with notable price...
Market Factors Ahead
As always, grain and soy markets along with those who trade in those commodities are looking ahead at several factors with the potential to move prices. Currently among those are the following: - USDA will release this month’s estimates of U.S. planted acreage for major crops on 29 June...
Market Commentary
Markets were all lower overnight, and that pattern accelerated throughout today’s session with wheat, corn and soybeans all suffering big losses at the close. The two primary factors in today’s markets are the following: Corn Belt weather looks wet for the first half of this week...
Market Commentary
It was a peaceful night session with corn and wheat showing very little change. Meanwhile, soybeans were 7-8 cents higher with meal up $2.00-3.00. Markets will probably be in idle mode until there are more developments on trade issues either with China or NAFTA. They seem to have factored in th...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
What USDA Didn’t Say
This week’s WASDE report from USDA was considered slightly bullish for prices, although that certainly wasn’t apparent by the market’s action during the past few trading sessions. U.S. corn and soybean ending supplies were reduced. World demand remains very strong, but crop pr...
Any USDA Surprises Tomorrow?
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply/demand) report tomorrow. Will there be any substantive surprises in tomorrow’s numbers? That is doubtful. It is more likely that markets will continue to worry more about all the various trade issues and the North Korean talks than changes in suppl...
Market Commentary
Markets were relatively quiet Sunday night, but corn and soybeans turned decidedly weaker today to finish with big losses. Funds started this week long everything except soyoil. They’ve had these positions for quite some time and evidently decided that today was the time to either get out...
Market Commentary
Futures were higher overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that China had agreed to purchase $70 billion of U.S. energy and agriculture products. Once again, this amounted to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation, and corn and soybean futures turned lower this afterno...
Trump Trade Trumps Weather
Markets continued their collapse today, following a lack of progress in the weekend trade talked between China and the U.S. The hardline Trump trade talk has trumped the continuation of less-than-ideal weather around the world that will eventually push markets higher. Our opinion remains that c...
All in Just Four Trading Days?
A week ago, WPI wrote about how farmers are optimistic about better markets for 2018 based on several at least somewhat positive factors. We should have waited a week. The markets changed a lot in this holiday-shortened trading week after starting the Monday evening session strong after t...
Market Commentary
Markets had an interesting finish to a mostly bearish holiday-shortened trading week. Prices were steady to firm overnight and started today’s session with small gains. Those gains didn’t last long, and the result was significant price swings throughout the session. The U.S. t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 May 2018 The average milling wheat export price remained stable at $212/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports were also steady at $200-204/MT CPT-Black Sea port. Meanwhile, 2018 wheat prices averaged $205/MT FOB. The average feed barley export price fell...
Market Commentary
Profit taking and surprisingly good crop condition ratings sparked a sell-off at the CBOT today. The overnight session featured losses of 3 cents for corn, 5.75 cents for soybeans and 8 cents for SRW wheat. The day session featured more of the same with bears testing key technical points for gr...
Unknowns and Uncertainties
The Memorial Day weekend at the end of May is widely considered to be the beginning of summer even though that season’s solstice does not occur for at least another three weeks. As farmers, traders, processors, exporters and everyone else with vested interest in the production of major U...
Market Commentary
Markets opened the Thursday evening session marginally softer after yesterday’s weakness. Corn and wheat pushing to new highs yesterday morning and then selling off when little fresh buying showed up provided a very weak-looking technical pattern. Markets finished the night session with s...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...
Wheat’s Story
We often talk about the stories that are told to grain and soy futures markets (and those who trade in them) by the underlying crop that each represents. Essentially, these stories are simply the conclusions drawn from current and prospective supply/demand fundamentals regarding how they might...
Market Commentary
Markets opened strong last night, and the soybean market extended that strength into big gains today. The story was the unexpectedly good news that the U.S. and China have declared a truce in the potential trade war with all potential duties and tariffs suspended. U.S. soybean exports to China...
Market Commentary
News overnight that China had dropped the import tariffs on U.S. sorghum ignited a nice rally in the corn market, which carried over to this morning and held together throughout today. Dry weather across some of the world’s major wheat-exporting regions, including the northern U.S. Plains...
Weather Check!
The National Weather Service issues its updated long-term weather forecasts once each month. Obviously, the May and June updates are important because they provide at least a glimpse of what weather conditions might be during the gut slot of the North American growing season. The maps below, re...
Market Commentary
Markets were all running for cover last night and today following what was considered a disappointing response to yesterday’s USDA reports. They actually contained a few bullish surprises, and the markets did try to respond by trading higher immediately after their release. However, they...
WASDE Wheat
The 2018/19 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,821 million bushels, up 5 percent from the prior year. The year-over-year increase is due to greater harvested area and slightly higher yield. Reduced beginning stocks and imports bring total supplies down 49 million bushels from the previous year...
U.S. and World Wheat Production Growing Smaller
We’ve been updating our ideas on U.S. wheat production over each of the past few months, and the primary reason for doing this so early in the season is that a severe drought has encased the southern Plains since early last fall. It has not abated and instead worsened. Despite the obvious...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Thursday night session mixed and traded that way until news the U.S. trade delegation to China was headed home without any positive announcements. Remember the markets closed better yesterday on rumors the trade discussions were going well with possibly favorable news today...
Cultured Meat; Animal Rights
The Strange Culture that Led to Cultured Meat For 40 years or more, a debate has been waged about the impact that the animal rights movement has had on the livestock and meat industry. It would have been almost unthinkable back in 1980, the year People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA...
Market Commentary
Much of the world has been enjoying the May Day holiday, which probably limited overnight trading volumes. Overnight futures prices found soybeans and wheat trading a bit lower, while corn hung around unchanged. Trading during the day came under the influence of diverse weather conditions and f...
2018 Crop Production May Not Be So Perfect
After noting in last Monday’s analysis (see Ag Perspectives, 23 April) that markets will be on cruise control for a month or so until crops get planted and growing season weather can be more fully assessed, it seems they have decided the 2018 growing season around the world will not be as...
Market Commentary
Markets were stronger overnight, led by (of all things) wheat. There were several reasons for that strength last night and today, including the following: Weather across the U.S. southern Plains remains warm to hot, dry and windy. Yields and the percentage of harvested acres are both going dow...
Market Commentary
Follow-through from Tuesday’s rally sent grain and soybean prices higher overnight in moderate volume. Word late Tuesday that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, possibly accompanied by U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, would go to Beijing to discuss economic and trade issues was taken a...
Markets in Neutral
Market are shifting more into neutral now that weather across the Corn Belt and northern Plains is finally starting to turn spring-like and even summerish after one of the coldest spring seasons on record. The problem this year is that these conditions didn’t arrive until this last week o...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers
UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...
Barley Supplies Will Be Smallest in Over 25 Years
Market commentaries rarely discuss any crops other than corn, wheat or soybeans. This is because they have futures markets, and that means speculators. Another reason is that the production volumes of the minor crops are very small relative to the “big three.” These crops include ba...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - primarily due to Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stoc...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
China Proposing Tariffs on U.S. Beef; NAFTA Deal Coming?; Record Red Meat; Changes in Beef Imports
China Proposing Tariffs on U.S. Beef China’s tariffs for U.S. pork products (see Ag Perspectives, 2 April 2018), which are in addition to existing duties, are probably one of its more strategic retaliatory strikes in the current trade dispute. Domestic hog and pork prices there are down m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
News Updates Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Oman Food Investment Holding Company (OFIC) is planning to invest $100 million in a facility that can produce 750,000 MT of soymeal and 175,000 MT of soyoil annually, which should be sufficient to cover 100 percent of Oman&rsq...
WTO Makeover; Taxing Success; Ring-Fence Skepticism
WTO Makeover There is reasonable concern that the Trump administration is blocking the appointment of appellant judges at the WTO as part of a goal to implode the current binding dispute settlement process. It would be Trumpian to believe that the U.S. would fare better by returning to the nego...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action saw grain and soy prices continue the firmer trend set by the rebound from earlier losses late in Monday’s day session that was enough to maintain positive technical support. Soybeans and winter wheat were a few cents higher, and corn gained a fraction of a cent ove...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat exports for 2017/18 are reduced 25 million bushels to 925 million, while ending stocks are raised by the same amount. Exports are lowered on reduced price competitiveness in some international markets. Hard red winter wheat and hard red spring wheat exports are reduced 15...
Planned Excess
Contrary to President Trump’s latest boast, trade wars are not good and not easy to win. U.S. agriculture now feels threatened by the effort to protect the American steel and aluminum sector. What is notable, though, is the similarity between food and steel. Production of both is deemed i...
Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought
Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be back on trend to match a more normal five-year average. All five of Australia’s top markets imported more beef in January than a year...
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...
WASDE Wheat
Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased. Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Fl...
TPP Reality?; U.S.-China Trade War
TPP Reality? Aggies are trying to decipher the degree of seriousness behind President Trump’s announcement in Davos that he would reconsider joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On the one hand, most things that go into a presidential speech are well vetted and discussed. Treasury...
Hints of Changing Dynamics
Simplistic economics suggest that the value of any freely-traded commodity is ultimately determined by the balance between its supplies and demand. That is especially true for renewable crops such as grains and oilseeds that have their supplies replenished annually or semi-annually if productio...
From TPP to CPTPP; Year-End Meat and Poultry Production
From TPP to CPTPP What started under the Obama administration as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), comprised of the U.S. and 11 other countries, will end as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on 8 March. This is when the pact will be signed in C...
WASDE Wheat
"Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Wheat feed and residual use f...
Straws in the Wind
In 2017, U.S. corn and soybean growers experienced unexpectedly large yields, but the benefits of that were largely offset by very low crop prices. Winter wheat farmers had the worst of both – quite a small crop and very low prices. While spring wheat production was also small (thanks to...
Do We Dare Be Bullish?
For many months, the CME grain and soy markets have been stuck in a fundamentally, technically and emotionally bearish pattern. Typically, trading volumes and volatility levels decline during bearish market cycles, which has certainly been the case this time around. Underlying all of the bearis...
The December WASDE
USDA’s December WASDE, released at midday, fits right into the history of previous issues for this month. They very seldom contain surprises but are always interesting, especially since they come along at a time of year when markets must search hard to find anything that is compelling. Th...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA’s latest figures. The agency’s updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets offer important implications for the U.S. market and prices. Commodity Analytics distills the essential information from this latest update...
No Excitement Expected in the December USDA Reports
USDA will release its December WASDE report tomorrow at noon (EST), and it has been impossible to find anyone who thinks it will include any numbers that are unexpected or will change the flow of the markets. It is important to remember that there will be no adjustments to the U.S. corn or soyb...
Things Worth Mentioning
As we move deeper into December, the energies and anxieties of the approaching holiday season become more noticeable. Whether that is good or bad depends on one’s point of view, but there is no denying that the collective level of stress seems to click a few notches higher at this time of...
Increasing La Nina Talk and Rising Soybean Prices
Soybean futures gapped upward in the Sunday evening session, trading 10-12 cents higher most of the night. The March contract traded right to $10.20, which is considered major technical resistance. The driver is weather across southern Brazil and Argentina. It continues to be dry there with lit...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started the month of December higher. Soybeans were the leader on slightly drier forecasts for southern Brazil and Argentina. Wheat was also strong, led by the Minneapolis December contract, which closed up 9.25 cents after seeing double-digit gains. KC and Chicago wer...
Ag Review - November 2017
This month's look at the markets around the world. We have seen a lot of activity this month and things are looking up internationally. Check out this month's issue for more detail...
Aussie Livestock in China; U.S. Live Cattle Trade
Aussie Livestock in China In the past few years, China has transitioned from being a non-market to an open market and then a closed market for U.S. ethanol and DDGS. At one point, its demand drove DDGS prices to more than 130 percent of the price of corn. In addition, China became the largest m...
Trump Bends on Biofuel; Support Revamp; Protection Sought
Trump Bends on Biofuel President Trump can be self-contradictory at times. However, when reminded of his pledge all across Iowa last year that he would “save” ethanol, this week he ordered EPA chief, Scott Pruitt, to reverse plans that would have reduced the biodiesel mandate and al...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were quietly steady to higher overnight following yesterday’s strong closes in soybeans that pulled corn higher as well. Soybean futures continued to lead the markets higher today after yesterday’s positive USDA numbers. Weekly export sales were releas...
A Friendly USDA Report
Today’s crop production and supply/demand estimates were considered slightly bullish for soybeans but neutral corn and wheat. Soybean futures traded more than 30 cents higher immediately after the report was released, and that pulled corn futures 6-7 cents higher as well with wheat initia...
Fake Standards; FDA Flunks; Aussie Prostration; Nuke Leverage
The Environmental Working Group confuses exposure with actual risk; “Love” is no longer a granola ingredient; Australia believes it can negotiation better trade deals on its own. Fake Standards The Environmental Working Group (EWG) issued a study charging that high nitrate levels in rural drink...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn sales, combined with the U.S.' current share of global exports, points to an interesting road ahead. Moreover, U.S. wheat, soybean, and soy...
U.S. Wheat's Mixed Bag
WPI forecasts 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports will be 5% above USDA’s latest projection. Russia’s record production will not be able to overcome...Among the little surprises in last Friday’s reports from USDA NASS was the increase in estimated hard red spring (HRS) wheat production. Private observer...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is expected to have a robust sugarcane harvest with production at 25.1 MMT in sugar year 2017/18, and there has been considerable discussion about enhancing the mills’ ethanol production capabilities. Sugar or Ethanol India is expected to have a robust sugarcane harvest with production at...
Ag Review: Meat Exports and Macroeconomic Opportunities
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Gr...
Market Commentary
Today’s futures trade was quiet with low volume, just as one might expect on the day prior to an important report from USDA. In fact, nearly all of today’s price movement occurred during the first hour of trading. General Comments Today’s futures trade was quiet with low volume, just as one mig...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Soybean Yields; Global Rapeseed Output; New Soy Crush Plant
Global rapeseed production in 2017/18 has been forecast to closely match that of the previous year. While crop sizes are expected to change among several countries, the estimate for Canada's output is surprising. Farmers Generally Pleased with Early Soybean Yields Yesterday’s USDA crop pr...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw volume fade and prices wobble before finishing near Monday’s closes, but more of a price pattern developed during the day session. Some of this was due to unwinding of long soybeans/short corn and/or wheat spreads. General Comments The overnight session saw volume fade...
Market Commentary
There were likely three issues that pushed all three wheat markets to gains today despite the weakness in soybeans and flat corn market. General Comments Soybeans led the markets lower overnight. However, wheat turned higher this morning, led by Minneapolis.A hint of rain is in the extended wea...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine FOB market for soybeans is quiet to start this week. Sellers are quoting $0.60X for October and November shipments (protein 34/33), but another factor is making this origin uncompetitive against others. Soybeans International Market Dynamics The soybean market has been very slow t...
Market Commentary
Most of the market talk today was about upcoming harvest pressure (or perhaps the lack thereof) in corn and soybeans. KC and Chicago wheat futures couldn’t hold any gains as a result of some strength in those markets. General Comments Markets were firm overnight, and the highlight was soybean f...
There is No Escaping Weather
Clearly, there are a number of weather-related situations with the potential to become important market factors in the months ahead.Weather is a topic for never-ending discussion, especially in the late summer of 2017 with Mexico, the Caribbean Islands, Texas Gulf Coast, Florida and Georgia sla...
Market Commentary
An initial spurt of buying that followed the very large export sales announcements from USDA/FAS put soybean prices up nearly 9 cents. Wheat futures, though, held onto the biggest gains today. General Comments The Fed ended its September meeting with the expected decisions to leave its key fed...
Peering Over the Horizon
The current limited price action of both the corn and soybean markets is reflecting the lack of fresh market-moving inputs. Looking ahead at the next three months, however, there should be no shortage.Grain and soy futures market performance during the first 19 days of September and on the cusp...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The 12.5 pro Russian wheat has moved up about $3 in the past two weeks, but it remains the cheapest origin by far for this quality. As a result, buyers from one specfic region are switching from a different origin. Milling Wheat The 12.5 pro Russian wheat has moved up about $3 in the past two w...
CETA to Squeeze EU Beef Market; Aussie Grain-Fed Beef; EU Net Beef Exporter
The drought in Australia during 2015 and the end of dairy production quotas in the EU are both having an impact on the global beef market. CETA to Squeeze EU Beef Market The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which becomes effective 21 September, will squeeze U.S. and...
Market Commentary
If there is a surprising market reaction to the September WASDE, it can be found in Chicago and KC wheat futures that mostly closed around 7 cents higher despite the unchanged U.S. wheat numbers. General Comments Markets have been waiting for the September WASDE since about an hour after USDA r...
The September WASDE
For the second month in a row, the 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the great majority of private analysts and crop scouts.For the second month in a row, the higher 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the g...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA's latest figures. The agency's updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets offer important implications for the U.S. market and prices. Commodity Analytics distills the essential information from this latest update and present...
USDA Report Preview
Many in the trade are still skeptical that the corn and soybean yields can be as big as the August estimates and pre-report estimates for the September report, and there are two primary reasons why.The key numbers in the USDA reports to be released at 12 P.M. (EDT) on 12 September will of cours...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started mostly steady Sunday evening, but wheat prices weakened throughout the night and continued that trend this morning. Trade today was in "anticipation" mode for tomorrow's USDA reports. General Comments Hurricane Irma has now been downgraded to a tropical storm a...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded slightly higher much of the day, but there was zero excitement with relatively light volume. All three wheat markets were also higher much of last night and today, although only one could hold any gains at the close. General Comments Markets were quiet overnight in very ligh...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments and stories in the news this week that could have future market implications. Stats Canada released its initial production estimates yesterday morning, which were generally a bit smaller than the trade was expecting. Among the Canadian crop projections were the...
Market Commentary
Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of grain and soy prices across the board with one exception. Overnight trade was slow with low volume, offering no sign of the day session excitement to come. General Comments Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of gr...
Leaving Never Good; Non-Price Factors; Taxing Imports
Donald Trump has threatened three times this week to pull the U.S. out of NAFTA, but the Mexicans have a rebuttal. Separately, there are now undesired consequences for at least one U.S. industry because of his withdrawal from the TPP. Leaving Never a Good Idea Donald Trump has threatened three...
More Misinformed; Fueled Problems
Mark Twain famously said, “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.” Spin forward to today, and the disseminators of false information as well as the people who believe them are much more numerous. More Misinformed Mark Twain famously sa...
Will Wheat Market Blues Ever End?
If smaller U.S. supplies and a smaller carryout cannot stop the long-term U.S. wheat markets’ bearishness, it is fair to ask what can. Some potentially important signs of change are actually beginning to show.We have occasionally noted that wheat futures markets seem to have no friends. It seem...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A Saudi consortium is said to be investing as much as $500 million in the redevelopment of 25,000 acres in one country along with what is said will be the largest poultry farming project in the Middle East and North Africa. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Contrary to the rep...
Market Commentary
Hurricane Harvey is creating export challenges, but robust yield estimates keep pressuring grain and oilseed futures. The cattle and hog markets took diverging paths with cattle earning triple-digit gains and hogs suffering triple-digit losses. General Comments Grain futures were mixed in moder...
The State of U.S. Wheat’s Competitiveness
It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in world markets, and there are many reasons why. However, that may be starting to change.It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Egyptian Company for Agriculture and Rural Development (ECARD), a government agency, will restart its contract growing program with the main focus on one particular crop. It is hoped that this effort will help substantially reduce the need for imported stocks. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/M...
Bulls Take Cover
Corn, soybean and wheat futures markets continued in full retreat today to start the fourth consecutive week of lower prices. All of this bearishness has left farmers in the lurch, but the next remaining hope for a bullish reversal would seem to be related to an event that started today.Corn, s...
Market Commentary
December corn futures got within a nickel of last August’s (2016) low. Some technical traders see that as the final downside objective. Meanwhile, the market will look at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report heading into next week’s trade. General Comments Markets were quietly mixed in overni...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) has announced that field trials for GM maize and cotton will start in October 2017, which is contrary to the efforts of one government ministry. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS A new finance program with Saudi Arabia will allow the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As the GM food debate in India continues, the supply and demand gap, especially of vegetable oil, is widening, and farmers are losing money due to pest attacks while using more pesticides and herbicides. Possible Sugar Imports Could Alleviate Shortages in a Few States Sugar prices have moved u...
Market Commentary
The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s bearish USDA reports and subsequent price collapse. The Minneapolis wheat market then again bore the brunt of the selling today. General Comments The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s beari...
WASDE; Japan Says No
Today’s WASDE report shows overall animal protein production revised upward for the year, and Japan imposes safeguard tariffs on frozen beef for the first time since 1996. WASDE USDA released its August WASDE report today, forecasting red meat and poultry production to be higher than previously...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at the highest level since before the 2011 Arab Spring, reaching $36.0 billion, and that the trade deficit has fallen 46 percent. Much of it is attributed to two developments. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egyp...
Speculating About the August WASDE
It has been largely overlooked amidst all the focus on the U.S. corn and soybean crop prospects, but the August WASDE is likely to also contain some other interesting changes affecting various supply/demand balances.The August WASDE is always one of the most intently anticipated of USDA’s month...
Market Commentary
Markets started Sunday evening with small gains, and that’s the way they traded the entire night session in light volume. Wheat was then a reluctant follower of the rallies in corn and soybeans today until those set new daily highs in the last 30 minutes. General Comments Markets started Sunday...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybeans losing nearly 50 cents, corn a dime and wheat 10-20 cents. Both corn and the soy complex had small trading ranges. General Comment Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybean...
Why 2017/18 Will Be Different
A number of developing factors over the past several weeks suggest that the 2017/18 crop cycle will be different across the globe.Major common threads for world agricultural production, trade and crop prices during the last four crop cycles were growing production and building global stocks. Th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenyan farmers are saying that the extended duty-free maize import period will make large volumes of those low-cost stocks available when the local crop is harvested in September. They are also unhappy about the impact of a Kenya Food Reserve Agency decision. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITE...
Ag Review: Geopolitics and the Black Sea
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Gr...
Market Commentary
The market still isn’t ready to decide whether the general dryness over the western Corn Belt and northern Plains is enough to reduce corn yields to more bullish levels. Meanwhile, Minneapolis wheat futures took over the lead again today, although KC and Chicago were not lagging far behind. Ge...
A Different Year Ahead
The global abundance of agricultural crops during the past four years is unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable. Change is inevitable, and it now clearly seems to be coming with the 2017/18 crop cycle.The safest truism in the world of agricultural commodities is that nothing ever stays the...
Fundamental Food Economics; Australia/New Zealand Frustrations
Australia and New Zealand do not practice perfect market economics, but their agricultural policies can be better than many others. Fundamental Food Economics EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker kowtowed to the demands of Eastern European member states to ensure that they received the s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is reported to be the destination for about 95 percent of all Ukrainian wheat bran exports in the first 11 months of MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, there are two factors driving its corn imports higher in 2017/18. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has...
Market Commentary
The corn and soybean markets were both bearish today on the overnight rains that were better than expected. Spring wheat futures were again soft, and some of this is the unwinding of long Minneapolis against short Chicago and KC positions. General Comments Rain trumps everything in a weather ma...
Market Commentary
More hot, dry weather emboldened bulls at the CBOT today. WPI’s future-implied crop yield models hold different outlooks for corn versus soybeans. General Comments Unless you were a wheat trader, it was good to be long in the overnight session. December corn and November soybeans added 5 and 7...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s rather placid grain and soy futures trade was replaced by a return of the weather market overnight. Most prices for corn, wheat and soybeans quickly leapt to double-digit gains, and higher prices carried over into the day session, at least until midday. General Comments Yesterday’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While South Africa has its biggest maize crop in about forty years and will once again be an exporter, it will have difficulty shipping to some maize-starved East African countries due to certain import restrictions. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt reports that flour...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybean basis moved sharply higher this week as Chinese buyers suddenly wanted to purchase August soybeans, both FOB and CNF. The basis CNF reaction then provided a window of opportunity to another origin, which sold four cargoes for August to China. Soybeans Brazil Brazilian so...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean and wheat futures finished the evening session about unchanged. Minneapolis wheat futures were then firmer this morning, soybeans turned higher, and corn managed to occasionally trade slightly higher, but they did not all close that way. General Comments Based on weekend temperatu...
Takeaways from the July WASDE
The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for crops in the western Corn Belt invested yesterday’s July WADSE with perhaps a bit more significance than might normally be the case.The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for c...
U.S. Meat Exports Losing Leverage in Japan
The EU has negotiated a trade deal with Japan following on the Japan-Australia agreement of 2015. With the U.S. pulled out of the TPP, U.S. red meat exporters are now at a disadvantage with two of their biggest competitors.When President Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a...
Many Questions, Few Answers
USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. However, circumstances have changed the intensity of interest as this year's edition comes out, and there are many questions.USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. [This year’s edition will be rel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Two factors drove basis higher, especially in the CNF market where the most liquid position has been August. Soybeans The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Lack of farmer selling and trading houses’ short positions drove...
Market Commentary
The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining to constrain trading in grain and soy futures. The general quiet trend continued during today's session in much the same fashion as it did Tuesday. General Comments The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s landed price of imported soybeans dropped $14/MT to $387/MT even as the yuan fell slightly against the U.S. dollar. That lower cost, however, was offset by a development that brought down wholesale prices. Oilseeds Soymeal Inventories Finally Retreat As expected, sever...
2017/18 U.S. Wheat Outlook
A great abundance of wheat supplies in the U.S. and a record-large volume in the world were the dominant features in 2016/17 that resulted in relatively low wheat prices. However, there will be major changes in the U.S. 2017/18 wheat supply/demand balance.Grain futures markets have been relativ...
Status of Barley and Oat Crops
The focus on the northern Plains drought has been on its potential impact on hard red spring wheat production, and that is important for several reasons. However, there has been little talk about how it might affect yield potential for barley and oats.The focus on the northern Plains drought ha...
Wheat Keeps Getting More Interesting
As spring crop ratings plunged again last week and hard red winter wheat protein levels continue to be a concern, issues with wheat production outside of North America are also worsening. As noted in the most recent crop progress report (see Ag Perspectives, 19 June), spring wheat crop ratings...
Market Commentary
It is tough to have a corn or soybean rally in June when temperatures are below normal and there is at least some precipitation in the forecast. Wheat, led by the Minneapolis spring wheat contract, has been the only game in town for the bulls. General Comments It is tough to have a corn or soyb...
Market Commentary
Corn and soy complex futures traded rather quietly overnight with minimal price changes. However, wheat prices moved higher again. During the day session, wheat futures markets then seized on the deteriorating U.S. crop along with a few other developments. General Comments Corn and soy complex...
Market Commentary
It was interesting that corn’s losses were being blamed on a better weather outlook, but that same forecast didn’t push soybeans lower. The soy complex was trading on the positive side almost the entire session, but a development at the close caused soybean and soyoil futures to finish down. Ge...
Is U.S. Weather the Only Game in Town?
Markets have been concentrating on the start to the U.S. growing season, and that will continue to be the dominant market factor for the next 30-60 days. However, there are several other issues that might start to attract more of their attention.Markets have been concentrating on the start to t...
Market Commentary
Minneapolis wheat futures took the lead again in overnight trade, and that pattern followed through at the day session opening. The uncertainty today was that there are some good chances for widely scattered rain events and cooler temperatures in the short-term forecasts. Bulls and bears could...
It’s Weather Time
It is now past the prime reproductive period for small grains (spring wheat, durum, barley, oats, etc.), and the critical weather period for corn and soybean crops is getting very close. How the latter and several other elements develop over the next 30 days will affect markets. It is now past...
Details of U.S.-China Beef Deal Reached
The beef industry is still reviewing the new regulations for resuming shipments to China, and that analysis will lead to assumptions about export volumes next year.Yesterday USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) announced that the details of a protocol for U.S. import access to China were...
Weather Market Vagaries
Markets were down rather hard today. They started lower in the Sunday evening session, and those losses accelerated once today’s trading session got underway. It appears that minor changes in some of the weather forecasts led to today’s sell-off.Markets were down rather hard today. They started...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Egyptian GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Russian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin over the weekend, paying $204.02-206.40/MT CNF for 10-20 July shipment. The prices were about $3 higher than in the previous week’s tender, most likely because of one particular factor. Milling Wheat The h...
Record Choice Select Spread; U.S.-Canada Dairy Spat Goes Beyond NAFTA
The demand for higher grade beef has been driving up cattle prices. Meanwhile, more countries are joining the U.S. regarding its concern about Canada’s new dairy policy. Record Choice Select Spread Cattle futures prices have mostly stabilized this week as cash prices trend bullish. Last year ca...
Wheat on the March
Old habits are often hard to break, but bearish fund managers are undoubtedly becoming nervous about their short wheat positions and probably with good reason.To the extent that markets can develop habits, being bearish on the price of wheat is an example. This goes back to 2013 as the world be...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet much of the Thursday night session, but they gained a little steam early this morning and closed higher. USDA's announcement of a sale to Spain then perked up the soybean market today, while corn received some negative news. General Comments Markets were quiet much of the Thu...
Record Cattle on Feed; Holy Cow: Indian Cattle Ban
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover ratios show that cattle feeders are remaining relatively current on marketings. However, placement data suggests the current supply/demand...
Barley Now A Specialty Crop
Barley acres have taken a significant brunt of the corn and oilseed acreage expansion in the U.S. and Canada, and there are a number of reasons why.The U.S. northern Plains have become solidly part of the Corn Belt. Corn and soybean acres continue to squeeze out those of the traditional crops o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC has raised the minimum protein requirements on its wheat tenders, and some indicate this may be a problem for one particular origin. Meanwhile, there has been a reported shortage of imported wheat for blending with domestic stocks to raise the overall milling quality. MIDDLE EAST/...
The Complexities of Wheat
Wheat has been the whipping boy of the market for the past several years and the short leg of every spread. Unlike corn and soybeans, which are the same around the world no matter the origin, wheat is more complex.The world has produced four consecutive wheat crops, and “awash in wheat” has lon...
Chinese Chicken; Cheese Please
One lawmaker’s concerns over chicken imports may be a hurdle for U.S. beef access to China. Meanwhile, its growth in exports shows cheese is a new trend in global protein trade. Chinese Chicken as Hurdle for U.S. Beef Access to China Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) has a long histor...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were under some selling pressure in the Sunday night session with soybeans slightly higher on very light trading volume. Selling then accelerated in wheat at today’s opening on more fund selling as soybeans traded as much as 9-10 cents higher. General Comments Corn and wh...
China Opens to U.S. Beef – for Real This Time
The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, which includes U.S. beef access to the Chinese market for the first time in almost 14 years. What can be expected?President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met in Florida in early April to discuss a number of bilateral trade issues and mutual...
Money and Hypocrites; Shrinking Yield Folly; Nanny NaNa; Rigged
Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and lingering animosity over WWII atrocities, the finance ministers for China, Japan and South Korea managed to reach agreement on language opposing protectionism. Money and Hypocrites Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Iraq’s Kurdish wheat farmers are very upset that the government only intends to buy 500,000 MT of their 1.8 MMT production. The government says that it does not have the funds available to buy any more than that, but the Kurds disagree and cite a different reason. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/M...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There are a number of issues, many weather-related, currently affecting crops in the U.S. and around the world.The Kansas wheat crop quality tour will take place next week. This one could prove to be interesting because a number of those who have been looking around this week don’t believe the...
Ag Review: Can Exports Save the Dairy Industry?
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Grain Industry Industry focus on divesting non-core business units will stabilize b...
A Look at U.S., Canadian and World Barley Supplies
The 31 March USDA planting intentions reports indicated notable changes ahead for U.S. barley acreage, and there are several reasons why.Barley acres in the U.S. have followed the pattern of wheat over the last few decades with planted area now forecast to drop 17 percent from 2016. 70 percent...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
April and May corn basis have started to heat up in Argentina due to several factors. There are still some shorts in the market, and those with port logistics will sell only at an attractive basis quote. Meanwhile, demand for deferred shipments (July onward) is still absent following release of...
China and U.S. Meat Exports; GIPSA Rule
China will increase its meat imports this year, potentially including U.S. beef. Meanwhile, USDA action this week has further delayed the livestock marketing rule called for in the 2008 Farm Bill. Trump/Xi Meeting Results in Movement on U.S. Beef Ban President Trump reported on his recent meeti...
Weather Scare Season
As the 2017/18 new crop cycle gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, it is inevitable that new weather scares will emerge to energize or torment market traders, and there are several real or potential candidates.In grain market parlance, a weather scare occurs when current or forecast condit...
China In-Country Analysis
After closing out 2016 with a solid November and a record December, U.S. sorghum exports to China began 2017 by setting a new record for the month of January. While the outlook is somewhat opaque due to local factors there, they are on pace to have the third-best first quarter ever. Oil...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) addressed several trade matters as it issued decisions regarding import duties on wheat, pulses and sunflower seeds as well as the use of methyl bromide fumigation at the country's ports. Duty Imposed on Wheat and Pulses Imports The government of India (GOI) has de...
Draft Outline for NAFTA Renegotiation
The Trump administration has prepared a draft letter notifying Congress of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, which spells out the objectives while pledging to work cooperatively with the legislative body on the process.The Trump administration has prepared a draft letter notifying Congress of it...
Cattle on Feed; McDonald’s Going to Fresh Beef
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings show the industry is remaining current on inventories. Analysis of the fed cattle supply situation offers insight into trading strategies t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is facing a possible tight sugar supply situation with lower-than-expected production and higher-than-expected demand. India is considering import duties on sugar, wheat, and pulses to help... Duty on wheat and pulses imports possible In order to protect the Indian wheat growers, the gove...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat prices were lower last week on farmer selling and lack of export demand. Soyoil is now priced at a discount to sunflower oil, ending an extended period of... Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week due to increased farmer selling and lack of fresh export demand i...
Go Status Quo; Supply Restrictions
There is no such thing as free trade but Germany and Japan are calling for a concerted effort to defend it. Elsewhere, the U.S. considers joining the EU, Zambia, and Nigeria in adopting supply-restricting policies. Status Quo is Good for Me There is no such thing as free trade, but according to...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
After three months of constantly rising prices, the Black Sea milling wheat market has finally turned lower for several reasons. Meanwhile, Bulgarian feed wheat for July/August is the cheapest for Spain as it has an advantage over Ukrainian origin. Milling Wheat After three months of constantly...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Although the market can now put the South American soybean crop in the rearview mirror, one potential problem remains. Meanwhile, the U.S. southern Plains hard red winter wheat crop, well ahead of normal in terms of development, is getting deeper into trouble every day. Another USDA WASDE (sup...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were lower overnight in lackluster, low volume trade. Then today’s USDA WASDE with its larger Brazilian and Argentine production, larger world production and larger ending world stocks added slightly more pressure on already weaker prices. General Comments Grain and soy fu...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The trade is interested in buying Bulgarian/Romanian feed wheat for July/August at €157/MT ($167/MT) FOB. While Ukrainian origin might be available at the same price, one factor rmakes it much less attractive. Milling Wheat The FOB market in the Black Sea remains firm despite the weaker domesti...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat prices have softened quite a bit in the past five weeks as imports have been good. While there has been no official announcement yet, it is being speculated that the government of India (GOI) might impose a 25 percent tariff on wheat imports as of 1 April for two reasons. Wheat Prices Sof...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent Rabobank report says the poultry industry will grow more than 60 percent over the next 20 years, but the expansion will be far greater percentage-wise in Sub-Sahara Africa than globally. While that sector has not previously attracted much investment there, the report indicates a reason...
Ag Review: Farm Equipment Outlook 2017
2016 Agribusiness Performance Recap and 2017 OutlookWPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Grains Industry Now, perhaps more than ever, the U.S. grain industry’s success i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's production of milk, egg and poultry meat continues to grow, but most of that is consumed by a simultaneously expanding population. However, its buffalo meat is in high export demand for several reasons. India’s Sugar Production Continues to Trail as Prices Rise Sugar prices continue to...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian and Australian Canola Crop Forecasts; More Biodiesel in Brazil; Mexico’s Soybean and Corn Imports
While several recent articles have cited officials in Mexico arguing that the country should shift away from the U.S. as its main supplier of soybeans and corn because of President Trump's criticism of its trade surplus, there are reasons to believe that this will not occur. Canada May Have Rec...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Maize and sorghum prices in eastern Africa are at record levels due to last year’s severe drought. Meanwhile, one organization has warned of an infestation in southern Africa this year that could be a more significant threat to crops than the current outbreak of fall armyworms. Regional Updates...
Market Commentary
CME prices started to drift a bit lower overnight in slowing volume as concerns about the growing avian flu problem in China caused Dalian prices for corn and soymeal to continue this week’s slide. Grain and soy futures prices were then soft to begin day trading, but a return of fund buying rev...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While too early to know whether India’s oil meal exports are rebounding, domestic demand is growing, especially for de-oiled rice bran (DORB).That open market price has risen to $167/MT, impacting the biggest user and pricing of two major products. Oil Meal Exports Higher but Slowing Soymeal pr...
U.S. Beef, Pork and Poultry Exports in 2016; Trump-Abe Meeting
USDA data confirmed last year’s beef, pork and poultry exports all increased over 2015, and one category showed exceptional growth. Meanwhile, U.S. producers hope the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will lead to more exports in the future. Record Pork Expo...
Fear-Driven Exports; Skewed Trade Sought
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) needs another big economy within the trade pact since the U.S. dropped out, and the Australians solicited the Chinese to fill the role. Fear-Driven Exports New Zealand scientists have developed a genetically-engineered grass that is heat tolerant, produces a...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures continued to show strength as they ended overnight trade about 8 cents higher. That rally persisted during the day session while the grains traded lower early on. General Comments Soybean futures continued to show strength as they ended overnight trade about 8 cents higher. Desp...
An Unhappy Outlook for U.S. Wheat
It would not be fair or accurate to call wheat a minor U.S. crop, but it seems headed in that direction due to wheat prices that have been low enough to defy profitability in recent years as well as another factor.The array of reports from USDA on 12 January included its initial estimate of the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent British report on the maize-damaging fall armyworm in Africa states that the entire continent could suffer from outbreaks within a very few years. Thus far, 10 countries there have been afflicted by this particular type of armyworm that is not native to Africa. Regional Updates MIDDLE...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Offers of feed wheat are very difficult to find in Ukraine, and none are available in Romania and Bulgaria. The only available origin in the Black Sea is Russian, but one trait is limiting its potential destinations. Milling Wheat The Black Sea market stayed supported last week due to slow farm...
Oilseed Highlights: Large U.S. Soymeal Sales; Caterpillar Emergency in Brazil, Soyoil-Based Graphene
Today’s USDA export sales report brought some good news to the U.S. soy sector in the form of larger-than-expected soymeal export sales last week. Meanwhile, researchers in Australia have discovered how to make graphene from soyoil. Large U.S. Soymeal Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export...
U.S. Export Competitiveness in Five Charts
Drivers of U.S. soybean, corn, wheat, soymeal and sorghum export opportunities are discussed with a view toward the long run.While large export volumes surprised the market early this year, they have occurred regularly since then and are factored into models. Understanding why U.S. exporters ha...
Oilseed Highlights: Limited Biodiesel Feedstocks; Philippines’ Higher Soymeal Imports; Tight Rapeseed Supplies in Europe
The National Biodiesel Board believes reinstatement of the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit and issuing payments to producers instead of blenders will allow it to greatly boost production while eliminating most of the biodiesel that is now imported. Where Will U.S. Biodiesel Industry Get Feedstoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has forecast that maize plantings will increase 31 percent in 2017 with those of white maize up by 53.5 percent and yellow maize by 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, there is a debate in the country regarding usage of Roundup weed killer. Regional Up...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The market chatter for much of this week concerned the many guesses coming out of Argentina on lost acres and possible final production. Meanwhile, two factors make it difficult to assess the accuracy of Brazilian crop forecasts. It’s Over Inauguration Day has come and gone, and Donald Trump is...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Chickpeas are a popular source of protein in India. However, prices of the whole chickpea and the split dal (pulse) are on the rise. As a result, many consumers have shifted to one alternative. High Chickpea Prices Shift Demand to Yellow Peas Chickpeas are a popular source of protein in India...
Trump Trade Policy Emerges; Risk-Based GMOs
After three days of congressional hearings and other public musings, the actual trade policy approach of the incoming Trump administration is becoming clearer. Trump Trade Policy Emerges After three days of congressional hearings and other public musings, the actual trade policy approach of the...
Oilseed Highlights: Size of Brazilian Soybean Crop; Big Aussie Canola Crop; More Soybeans than Corn in 2017
If recent forecasts are to be believed, Brazil’s 2017 soybean crop will apparently not only be a record, it will be huge. As optimistic as those projections are, however, there is some evidence to suggest it will be smaller. Is Brazil’s Soybean Crop as Large as Many Forecast? If the forecasts i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
After being stable until the third week of December 2016, sugar prices are moving up faster than expected in this current sugar season as there is higher demand from institutions. However, there are also a few other factors that are having an impact. Higher Per Capita Income and Lower GDP Growt...
U.S. Retaliates on EU Beef Ban; Cold Storage Report
The decades-old U.S./EU beef trade dispute is back on the front burner as the U.S. decides to retaliate. Meanwhile, a USDA report, which showed meat and poultry in cold storage down from last year, included a particularly notable surprise. U.S .Retaliates on Beef Trade with the EU The decades-o...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet, low volume overnight session, and perhaps the most telling feature of today was the very narrow daily trading ranges across the board. Outside markets provided little or no inspiration for grains or the soy complex either. General Comments It was a quiet, low volume overnight se...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Strong grain demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is overwhelming Russia’s port facilities, pushing the government there to expand and modernize them. Two factors have made these Russian stocks very price competitive in the region. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN...
The Attack of the U.S. Dollar
With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a hawkish approach to monetary policy over the next two-three years, the U.S. dollar is on a tear. However, its extreme strength holds ramifications for commodity markets, including grains and oilseeds.With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a h...
Market Commentary
Sunday markets started firm with early soybean futures trading as much as 10-11 cents higher, but that buying dissipated with all markets slightly lower to start today’s session. Some analysts believe the sell-off that occurred was triggered by the potential impact of a political position...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was lethargic early today, but it improved significantly in the last hour of the session when prices started to rally. Accelerated buying into the close brought soybean futures back to their highs for the day, which was mirrored by one of the other markets. General Comments Marke...
USDA Report and a Few Random Thoughts
While today's USDA December WASDE did not contain any significant changes to the bottom line of U.S. ending supplies, there were some adjustments to the world production estimates. Meanwhile, there have been a few other ongoing developments.USDA released its December WASDE (supply/demand) estim...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As GOI has now decided to completely remove the import duty on wheat, prices have dropped slightly after moving up prior to the announcement.. With Ukrainian and/or Australian currently at $210/MT delivered Indian port versus much higher domestic prices, imports are likely to continue over the...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices pulled back in overnight trade. There were negative influences from declines for Dalian futures prices and Malaysian palm oil. Meanwhile, the day session saw wheat enjoy a rare development. General Comments Overnight trade saw an uptick of trading volume with mixed re...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain prices were little changed in overnight trading even though Dalian meal and soyoil futures continued their upward trek. Trading was also more subdued with narrower ranges and more modest volumes during the day session as markets seemed to consolidate. General Comments The late...
Creating a Trend; Trade and Tax Policy
With low prices now burdening growers, researchers are calculating what tweaks can be made to extract something additional from the market. However, there are several reasons why some investors contend that it is better to create a trend than to chase one. Creating a Trend It was tough to get f...
Market Commentary
In overnight trading, soybeans continued to build on Monday’s gains with fuel provided by higher prices for Dalian’s soymeal and oil as well as another stout rally in Malaysian palm oil, which was up 43 ringgits to another four-year high. The rally of soy complex futures prices then continued i...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn is offered at $165/MT FOB for December-February, which is roughly in line with U.S. stocks on a CNF basis to the main destinations in the Mediterranean. However, a different origin becomes the cheapest from March onward for all major destinations in Africa and Asia. Milling...
Market Commentary
Expanding concerns about hot, dry weather across parts of Argentina gave the soy complex new life Sunday evening after last week’s losses, and then a developement this morning provided another shot of adrenelin. Meanwhile, corn started to surge higher on fund short covering around mid-mor...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea milling wheat market was again firm last week on slow farmer selling and exporters’ short covering. The pace of exports from Russia remains too slow to meet the projected total. At current prices, that country is losing its competitiveness to several specific origins. Milling Whea...
China; More China; Food Fallacies; Inequality
Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) told Agri-Pulse to “Show me a nation that cannot feed itself, and I'll show you a nation in chaos. I've said it before and I'll surely say it again.” And he would be wrong each time he said it. China No Substitute Some are saying that...
Ag Review: Agribusiness Margins in the Face of Uncertainty
WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Grain Industry Low prices are leading farmers to pursue cost-cutting decisions. In turn, this will pressure margins at all levels of the farm economy,...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Presidential election and the November WASDE proved to be a vicious combination that sent markets – from corn to oil to equities – into a tailspin. Having once recovered from the political shockwaves, grain markets were pounded again by a bearish WASDE report. General Comments The most...
Non-Election Topics
Americans are growing weary of political discussions and are looking forward to non-election topics. Fortunately, U.S. grain exports, La Nina weather, and the new CFTC rule provide some thought relief.Last night a local TV reporter asked a random person on the street if she could name one good...
Another USDA Report, No Surprises Likely
The November WASDE report may be overshadowed by the election results but important international production revisions are possible. Dry weather in South America and Europe...Wednesday’s USDA reports will be mostly obscured by tomorrow’s presidential election results, but the reports will be re...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The market yard price of corn in Nizamabad has dropped 11.06 percent from the start of the season to $201/MT, and the NCDEX spot price there also decreased 26.20 percent over a five-week period to $214/MT. However, prices are still not as low as they should be at peak arrivals, which is partial...
Market Commentary
Every market has been very tentative this week, and today was no exception. Trading volume was average ahead of the weekend and the U.S. presidential election next Tuesday. Corn was lower overnight in light volume and followed the soybean move higher around mid-morning today. General Comments E...
Market Commentary
The latent bullish trends that the soybean and corn markets were working to establish got blown apart today, and the technical momentum is now pointed down. January soybeans and December corn have been struggling to break through technical upside resistance levels for more than a week, and they...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
WASDE Wheat Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price of wheat is reduced by $0.05 per bushel to $5.55.World trade is 1.7 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Coercion Beholder; Down Under’s Demands
Coercion Beholder U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart famously said in a 1964 case that he could not define hard core pornography “But I know it when I see it.” The G-7 called for an end to boycotts of purchasing Japanese farm products, calling it a form of coercion. Meanwhile...
Market Commentary: End of Week Reshuffle
The only certainty of the past week is that soymeal is going stratospheric. But corn, soybeans, and wheat took a breather today. For the week: December corn gained 0.456 percent December soymeal rose 8.69 percent November soybeans gained 1.71 percent December soyoil lost 1.82...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Volatile Wheat Suppliers
The FAS attache in Canberra expects Australia’s wheat production to fall by 25 percent in 2023/24. This follows three years of record sized crops. Lower prices and drier conditions are the cause. Of the six major wheat exporters, Australia has the highest variation in its production and e...
Australian Barley Rebound
Australia announced that an agreement had been reached with China that will end the latter’s punitive tariffs on barley from Down Under. For its part, China said it is willing to work with Australia to normalize relations. In May 2020, China imposed tariffs of 80.5 percent on Australian b...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA
Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreign policy. However, China has created a bit of an ANZ split. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited China on the 50th anniversary of...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Prices Continue Bullish
Live cattle negotiated prices in the south hit $155/cwt this week, while in the north they reached $157, and still some sellers held out for more. Negotiated dressed prices averaged $245/cwt. Slaughter last week was down due to the Thanksgiving holiday but was still higher than the...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat
Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...
China Tensions and Trade
Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called “friendly” countries. Starting in 2020 when Australia called for an investigation into COVID’s origin, Beijing began an effort...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected sea...
Market Commentary: Definitively Lower
The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...
Market Commentary: Weak Energies Weigh on Soy Complex; Wheat Ignores Bearish Technicals
Continued declines in energy markets pressured the CBOT on Friday and reduced fund buying interest. Soyoil futures fell lower and to near trading range support on weaker energy markets and pulled soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures were higher as traders pointed to strong demand as reason to...
WASDE Wheat
The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...
Beef: Where East Meets West
Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...
Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline
The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the day, but that effort was met with stiff selling pressure and more cash selling from farmers. Harvest activity has increased across the east...
Beer Pressures
Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor, and transportation. Already elevated malt prices started rising more in mid-summer when the impact of North American drought conditions be...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boosted yield potential. Consequently, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its crop estimate from 19.2 to 19.8 MMT for MY 2021/22. Almost...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies to End Strong Week; Hogs Rally while Cattle Fall
Corn and wheat futures were higher again on Friday, but volume was waning as funds slowed their buying pace. The soy complex saw continued but mild strength as exports remain a headwind for soybeans and meal. This week’s market action saw surprising strength due to demand-side factors (no...
Notable TFP Changes
U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for the Future of Agriculture & Farm Europe. Mr. Vilsack has taken the position that increasing productivity is the pathway to sustainability...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress” harvesting 2021 summer crops and planting 2022 winter crops. The Commission increased its forecast of summer crop yields, with the 2021...
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led by wheat. Minneapolis wheat trades into contract highs, and oats have traded into all-time record highs. Matif wheat made n...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missing from the report was any mention of the TRIPS agreement hindering vaccinations against disease. The reason for its absence is the mounting...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
Future Industry Impacts; Minimum Wage and Farm Labor
Future Industry Impacts The push toward shorter supply chains and plant-based food products will have perverse impacts on the food marketing industry. For example, eating local runs directly counter to the use of geographic indicators, which seeks to protect and promote the sale of food in non-...
Value versus Value-added in Grapes
The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quantity is a relative recent phenomenon. Meanwhile, the EU’s wine production has been dropping. India is the second largest producer of g...
Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns
While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farms in the world. However, consolidation reached a peak in 2010 and the consolidation curve has flattened or even slightly declined. Lik...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively w...
Update on Cyber Attack on Meat
This morning we posted an alert on the cyber-attack on JBS IT infrastructure in North America and Australia. The attack happened over the weekend and the company reported the incident to the White House and USDA. The U.S. government is operating under the assumption that this was similar to the...
Cyber Security: New Commodity Market Risk?
Just three weeks after the Colonial Pipeline that supplies about 45 percent of the gasoline to the U.S. East Coast was hit by cyber hackers, the largest meat packer in the world was hit by a cyber-attack over the weekend. Coincidence? Or have hackers gained an appreciation for the chaos that ca...
AM Outlook - Soy Complex Gains on Grains
NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published on May 28, 2021. Good morning - Prices traded higher overnight led by soyoil, which stabilized bean trade. Soybean bull spreads are working again, finding support after Monday's selloff. Morning trends feature beans gai...
Uncertain Values
British farmers are upset that their government may give access to the UK market to beef from Australia. They argue that they are not competitive against their Aussie peers. The relative competitiveness is difficult to understand based on public data. Based on dated numbers from the FAO, Brazil...
Reliability versus Value in Beef
Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. However, Russia has proven that wheat importing countries care more about value (quality and price) than they do about reliability of specific su...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports. All wheat production is proj...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook
It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame
Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection for nascent Chinese winemakers but political punishment imposed on Canberra. However, it is concurrently punishment imposed on Chinese consum...
Risk of Precaution; Challenging Poor Governance
Risk of Precaution Several European countries stopped vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s product out of an abundance of caution that it was causing blood clots in some recipients. The EU’s medicines regulator now says there is little risk (EMA data shows a 0.0006% rate of blood clots f...
More to Burn, Less Trade
As the border carbon tax idea picks up steam it leads to all kinds of possibilities for expanding use of border measures to extract policy changes. One target being discussed is the treatment of women, but they could be expanded to policy measures that distort trade, such as labor laws, tax pol...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Au...
Wheat Volatility
ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...
Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges
Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...
Beef with Beef Prices
The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...
WASDE Wheat
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stoc...
All/Any Trade Agreements; He’s Back!; Helping Hurts
All/Any Trade Agreements University of Sydney sociologist and foreign policy columnist Salvatore Babones calls the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), “a China-style trade agreement: platitudinous and ineffective.” Aussies do not have a lot of warm fe...
WASDE Wheat
November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20. This increase is based m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains
The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields
Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Looking at his campaign promises potentially impacting agriculture there is a lot of repetition from the past, a past that was mostly different...
CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments
CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...
Friday Intrigue
Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks: U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...
European Market Analysis
Regional News More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT. Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...
Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples
Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...
Thoughts from the August WASDE
Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report. Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary
Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...
The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand
The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...
The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes
The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about. Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...
Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters
Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India’s c...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Changes in USDA WASDE Report; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Takeover of Vicentin
Today’s USDA WASDE report did not include any major unexpected changes in the supply and demand situation for the soy sector. U.S. soybean exports in 2019/20 were reduced, but U.S. soybean crush was increased as were U.S. soyoil exports. Overall, the report was relatively neutral to sligh...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower on Tuesday as good crop conditions across the U.S. and surprisingly large Brazilian crop forecasts pressured the markets. Cattle futures defied the bearish trend and close higher. Funds started selling grains at the open, triggering sell-stops in soybeans and soymeal...
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Market Commentary
The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the play with substantial volume trying to get in even as there was substantial volume working against soybeans. With a three-day holiday weekend...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks. The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage. The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with short covering that lifted corn and soybeans higher early in the day. Firmer crude oil prices were supportive initially. Row crops ended up trading both sides of unchanged but finished slightly higher ahead of First Notice day tomorrow. Wheat was the bigger story of the day...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...
Comfortable and Safe; Adjusting Risk-Benefit; Miscellany
Comfortable and Safe Food processors are reporting brisk sales of their processed products. Nestlé’s Hot Pockets are selling lot hot cakes; Nielsen reports that canned soup sales are up 37 percent, canned meat rose 60 percent and frozen pizza is up 51 percent. Products that were mo...
Market Commentary
The biggest news of the day is the fact that May crude oil futures traded to negative prices, posting a daily low of negative $40.34 (-$40.32) before settling slightly higher. U.S. crude oil storage capacity is basically nonexistent right now, helping create the price weakness and today’s...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s wheat outlook – is for lower U.S. exports, reduced domestic use, and increased ending stocks. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, implied less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters than previously estimated. U.S. wheat e...
Market Commentary
There were several reasons to be bearish today and not much countering the mood. USDA’s Outlook released this morning framed the year ahead as fundamentally stable and an improvement over 2019. It will be for wheat with prices forecast to increase 8 percent and soybeans with a 1 percent r...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 February at 102.4 percent of last year. If accurate, at about 11.85 million head, that would be the largest Feb...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Market Commentary
Overnight news that Australia’s 2019/20 wheat crop will be smaller than expected set the stage for a sharp rally in the CBOT wheat markets. Morning calls were for wheat to open higher and pull corn along with it, which is exactly what happened. Few, if any, analysts, however, expected whe...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports that the only change for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low. ...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets finished the week mostly higher with short covering in corn and soymeal spilling over to other markets. Vice President Pence noted today that China is committed to making its utmost effort to fulfill its Phase One agreements, a fact which brought comfort to the ag markets. End user...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with a weaker tone and kept that mentality through the day. Soyoil firmed against soymeal and soybeans while corn and soybeans traded mostly lower in tandem. Wheat and livestock futures fell back as well amid uncertainty about China’s commodity “shopping list”...
Livestock Round-Up
Cattle Market to Tighten in 2020 Going into 2020, the beef cattle inventory is likely to be down. The cattle inventory data will be released by USDA on 31 January, but based on 2019 trends, it is likely to be down from the herd as of January 2019, which, at 94.8 million head was slightly larger...
Last Laugh; Mediation over Arbitration
Last Laugh The actual language of the announced phase one agreement between the U.S. and China remains unknown but a reported commitment to boosting imports of American farm products could (speculatively) have notable side effects on infrastructure. The first involves grain handling capacity, t...
WASDE Wheat
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Wheat estimates: U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million. Hard Red Winter and Durum exports are each raised 10 million bushels, and HRS is raised 5 million. With reduced supplies and higher use, 2019/20 ending stocks are...
Livestock Round Up
Considering China Situation Impact Hog producers are awaiting a breakthrough in prices while packers’ margins remain high. The promise of increased exports has not made its way to the hog market – at least not yet. So, what is the outlook? The situation is the reverse from bac...
Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance
The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously, ASF has had a demonstrably larger impact on China than did BSE on Europe, and yet EU beef production and consumption have never fully recov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. According to Australian information, about 13 percent of all farmland is foreign owned. One problem that has come to light is that there seems t...
Market Commentary
The CBOT featured early firming in the grains complex with nothing but lower prices for the soy complex. Early buy corn/sell soybeans spread trade set the course for lower soy products trade while wheat spent the day drifting lower. The weekly Export Inspections report showed the influenc...
USMCA Reckoning; Make My Brown Eyes Green; Not Such Free Traders
USMCA Reckoning USTR Robert Lighthizer and his Canadian and Mexican counterparts are meeting today to discuss the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Lighthizer will likely give a brief on the final demands by Democrats before allowing Congressional consideration of the trade pact. Key will be the la...
WIC to SNAP Lessons; Cheese Mountains; Spillover Subsidies
WIC to SNAP Lessons According to data published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report, obesity amongst 2-4-year old’s dropped significantly following USDA changes in the types of food and beverages subsidized under the Suppleme...
China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s
China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates: U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...
Wheat Over-Supported
Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reports: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30. Projected imports are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year (MY). Global wheat prices are expected to be restrained for the rest of the MY. The global outlook for wheat this month is for lower suppli...
Drought Shifting Consumption
Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific region says it is part of a longer-term meteorological trend. The change is most adversely impacting rice production and will likely benefit whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production. Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Production; Trade Breakthrough
Record Meat Production Red meat production hit a record high for April at 4.522 billion pounds, split almost evenly between beef at 2.262 billion pounds and pork at 2.692 billion pounds. It has reached 17.859 billion pounds so far in 2019, which is 102 percent of the same period in 2018. Broile...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. 2019 planting season is grim, and there is little or no relief in sight based on the latest weather forecasts. The Corn Belt and northern Plains will stay wet and cool for the foreseeable future. Most of the market chatter has been about the potential reduction in U.S. corn planted acr...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
USDA Report Bearish Corn, Wheat and Soybeans
Today’s USDA supply and demand estimates increased old crop ending stocks of U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans. No adjustments were made to the 2019 corn and soybean planted acres numbers, and the yield estimates for those crops are very close to record-high levels. The biggest surprise in U...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey says it will be a “key player in global grain” with plans to greatly expand storage/handling facilities and a long-term goal of becoming a hub for grain shipments out of the Black Sea region. It has been a major wheat flour...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As of 15 April, Egypt had bought approximately 365,000 MT of local wheat against its purchase target of 3.6 MMT. Wheat buyers from Morocco and Tunisia were in the U.S. last week to closely examine its wheat infrastructure. The group visi...
Hog Wild Pork Markets
After a few weeks out of the market, China purchased 77,700 MT of U.S. pork last week. That makes it the number three destination (behind Mexico and Korea) for pork exports in 2019. Export sales totaled 90,700 MT, including to Korea (3,600 MT), Chile (2,900 MT), Japan (2,200 MT), Australia (1,8...
Policy Opportunities and Risks
Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...
Funds Slam the Markets
Last week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report confirmed that funds (i.e., managed money) continued to expand their short positions in corn, soybeans, soymeal and wheat to either record-large levels or very nearly so. They had very little opposition to pressing the short side before last...
WASDE Wheat
According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports. Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...
No Help for the Bulls
The February and March USDA WASDE (supply and demand) estimates rarely make any significant changes as they come during a dead spot in world markets and growing seasons. The only time they might be bullish is when their release occurs amid a severe weather problem in Brazil and Argentina. That...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat export tender of last week has reportedly received a poor response. It was said that 12 traders participated, and their offered prices were below what had been anticipated with the highest bid at $219/MT for 25,000 MT an...
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China; U.S. Meat Exports to Japan; Data Catch-Up; Farm Income and Expenses
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China Cases of classical swine fever (CSF), also known as hog cholrea, have been detected in five prefectures in Japan, most recently in the centrally-located Aichi Prefecture. So far, about 15,000 pigs are in the process of being culled. (Correction: It wa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Last Thursday Egypt reopened the five ports that had been closed the previous Sunday because of weather conditions. Meanwhile, Egypt has closed several poultry farms due to their failure to provide samples for analysis in the effort to control...
Plurilaterals for NTBs; Leaky Law; Big State Power
Plurilateral for NTBs Australia has launched an effort to address the nontariff trade barriers (NTBs) its exporters face. The Aussie beef industry says NTBs cost it A$3.4 billion per year and the nation’s grain growers curated a list of 54 such barriers across 15 markets. But there is no...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA also reported additional sales yesterday and today of 1,403,000 MT to that country, bringing the two-week total to 2.964 MMT. Trade sources sug...
Market Commentary
Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...
U.S. Export Prospects Improving
USDA trimmed the U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels (680,000 MT) in the December WASDE (supply & demand), but that wasn’t a surprise given the 9 percent lag in sales against a year ago. Its revised export goal is an 11 percent increase over last year. Export sales of har...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...
Oilseed Highlights: China and U.S. Soybean Imports; WASDE and the Soy Sector
China Apparently Deciding How Many U.S. Soybean to Import At their meeting in Buenos Aires, President Trump was able to get a commitment from President Xi to import a substantial volume of U.S. soybeans and other commodities during the 90-day truce in the trade war. Hong Kong’s South Chin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA notes the following about wheat: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.0 billion with all the reduction in Hard Red Winter (HRW) on historically low exports for thi...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government will be closed 5 December to honor the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States. Release of the government’ s various reports for the remainder of the week will be delayed by one business day as a result. Whatever excitement was created by last we...
Strong Holiday Season Start; Japan Trade
Holiday Season Starts Strong With a pipeline full of protein, seasonal holiday demand started strong with Thanksgiving. As of 31 October, cold storage stocks of turkey were lower than year-ago levels after the second consecutive month of drawdowns. The total pounds in freezers were 96 percent o...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The government of Pakistan is expected to announce the approval of wheat exports this week, which will be subject to a $100/MT subsidy. Experts say that this step is needed to both free u...
When All Else Fails, Talk About Weather
This is Thanksgiving week in the U.S., and the markets will be closed that day. However, this holiday has other implications such as the following: It is one of the busiest holiday travel periods of the year. It can be severely complicated by adverse weather because of winter conditions across...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower overnight following yesterday’s negative response to the somewhat bullish U.S. corn and wheat WASDE numbers. Both the U.S. and world soybean ending supply estimates were clearly bearish. Today’s session, however, saw the soybean market turn hi...
Where Did All That Corn Come From?
That is the question for this month’s WASDE. USDA accepted China’s massive adjustment in corn stocks plus a relatively small upward one in its wheat stocks. Both USDA and China also increased the latter’s corn carry-in by 143 MMT from the October estimate. In addition, USDA bo...
Market Commentary
Upon detecting the sharp increases in WASDE estimates of world corn and wheat production/stocks, computer trading programs launched sell orders that quickly sent futures prices tumbling (also noted in today’s separate analysis). Wheat futures prices fell 8-10 cents, soybean prices dropped...
The November WASDE
USDA/NASS cut the U.S. corn and yield estimates by 1.8 bushel/acre (BPA) and 1.0 BPA, respectively. Those reductions were well below the average minor changes expected by the trade. This resulted in production estimates that were also well below the average guesses reported by wire services. Cl...
Market Commentary
The midterm election has come and gone with the results about as predicted – a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. This will give the chattering classes (and President Trump) plenty to talk about, but the reaction of financial markets today belies a doom-and-gloom outlook. Grain and...
A Few Odds and Ends
It is midterm Election Day in the U.S., and the antipathy between Trump supporters and haters is generating more than the usual interest. Whatever the results may be, the campaign has emphasized the wide chasm that exists between the two sides. Current polling suggests that the Democrats will r...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. corn and soybean yields are so good that they will more than offset the lower harvest price calculations for the crop revenue insurance products. Remember that the (per acre) revenue guarantee calculation takes the actual 2018 yield times the percent of coverage times the price calculation...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday night session steady to just slightly higher, but wheat and corn closed this morning down a penny with soybeans 3-4 cents lower. Then during most of today’s session, corn was steady to slightly higher with wheat and soybeans lower. The following two major events...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. Chicago wheat traded as much as a dime higher with corn and soybeans up 3-4 cents and 6-8 cents, respectively. Overnight volume was nothing special, and none of the buying surfaced in today’s session. In fact, those same futures all t...
Market Commentary
Markets firmed up overnight with wheat trading 5-6 cents higher following yesterday’s big sell-off. Wheat then took off sharply higher in the first hour of trading this morning. The strength was attributed to a report that U.S. wheat was among the cheapest offers to Egypt. Corn followed w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of establishing a wheat hedging program to better protect against the volatility of international wheat prices. The finance ministry is said to be taking a very close look at how such a system cou...
The Global Productivity Gap
The Global Harvest Initiative is a non-profit organization founded in 2009 by DuPont, ADM, Monsanto and John Deere. Its purpose is to advance policies, research and agricultural practices that will increase world agricultural productivity through collaborative efforts by private organizations w...
Wheat Update; Bullish World Corn Numbers
Last Friday we updated our view of the tightening world wheat situation and how that will eventually force the wheat market to rally. It was noted in different market commentaries this morning that wheat prices in Australia have been steadily separating themselves from world prices. The result...
All the Ingredients - But No Dough
U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below). Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to r...
USDA’s October WASDE
After two months of bearish reports, there was a general feeling that USDA’s October WASDE, released today at noon (EDT), would add to that trend with even higher yields and production for U.S. corn and soybeans than the already huge September estimates. Moreover, USDA had to factor in th...
WASDE Wheat
The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat in October is larger supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat production is raised 7 million bushels to 1,884 million from the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 28. Projected imports increased 5 milli...
Census Bureau Exports
As noted before, it is the U.S. Census Bureau rather than USDA that keeps the official count of grain, soybean and soy product exports. USDA’s FGIS keeps a tab on the volume of grain and soybeans inspected for export each week, and its FAS operates its export sales reporting system. The l...
Markets Slogging Along
Wheat, corn and soybean markets are behaving like the corn and soybean harvests, continuing to slog along as if stuck in the mud. Perhaps that is the way it should be at this point in the marketing year. The U.S. still has 70 percent or so of what appears to be record corn and soybean crops sti...
Market Commentary
Tuesday’s rumors had the Russian government taking steps to slow the frantic pace of wheat exports. Today it became clear that it did act but not in a way that was expected. The government apparently has closed about 30 interior grain elevators in Rostov and Krasnodar for three months. Th...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Crop; Brazilian Biodiesel; EU and Australian Rapeseed
Higher Forecast for U.S. Soybean Crop INTL FCStone yesterday boosted its forecast for the U.S. soybean crop from 4.782 billion bushels (130.16 MMT) to 4.796 billion bushels (130.54 MMT), a revision based on the firm’s increased estimate for the average yield from 53.8 bushels/acre to 54 b...
Weather Markets in October?
World crop production has struggled in 2018 after five consecutive years of record output. The Northern Hemisphere growing season is basically now finished, and things didn’t go so well. World wheat and corn production were significantly affected by drought this past summer. That problem...
Market Commentary
This was an interesting start to October and the new quarter. Markets were quiet overnight with little price movement. However, that changed significantly at today’s openings with corn and soybeans turning sharply higher. Meanwhile, wheat futures continued to hover around unchanged. There...
Market Commentary
There was much for the markets to deal with today. It was the last day of September and the last day of the quarter; the drama over the Supreme Court nomination continues to play out in Washington; and there is still uncertainty over any possible shift to E15 from E10 that would increase ethano...
Trade Updates; Food Inflation and the Fed
China, Japan and Canada Trade Developments – or Not During an interview at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event in New York this week, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer said that since China joined the WTO 17 years ago, the bilateral trade relationsip has worked out for that...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures were all lower through most of the Sunday evening session. However, wheat futures turned slightly higher early this morning and continued that trading pattern when the day session opened, closing with gains of up to 5.25 cents. Soybeans continue to bear the brun...
Bullish News/Bearish Markets
It was an interesting week for market news versus market action. There were actually numerous, somewhat bullish news stories that generated little in the way of bullish market reaction, including the following: Wheat markets continue to absorb news of further declines in volume and quality by...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were lower overnight with corn trading fractionally higher. The big question today was whether yesterday’s strength in corn and soybean futures was anything more than a technical bounce off of recent lows or instead a reaction to bullish news. Corn maintained som...
Market Commentary
The overnight trade was quiet and uneventful with only small price changes. Soybeans traded up 2 cents, Chicago wheat was up about 3 cents, and corn hung around unchanged. That session did not prepare the markets for what was to come during the day when soybean and corn prices moved sharply hig...
Stepping Back, Looking Ahead
Perhaps there should be a rule that anyone whose business is analyzing any kind of market economics must be forced to take some time off and be totally removed from any contact with markets or the forces that move them. Aside from the other benefits derived from such vacations, time away from t...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Market Commentary
Pre-WASDE positioning sent the grains complex lower today, while livestock futures were under pressure from profit taking and lackluster cash markets. Fund managers are worried tomorrow’s report will be a repeat of the August WASDE and are paring back any long positions. It’s tough...
Here Come the USDA Reports
There are several things to watch for in USDA’s September production estimates and WASDE (supply/demand) revisions that will be released on 12 September at noon (EDT). Corn USDA caught the trade by surprise with its record U.S. corn yield estimate in August. No one seems to expect...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet overnight in very light trading volume. Everything started the Sunday evening session slightly lower, but wheat moved to small gains early this morning when French wheat futures opened higher. Among the factors impacting the markets this week will be USDA’s release of i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower again in the Sunday night session as well as throughout today. Corn and soybeans were still suffering a hangover from the Pro Farmer tour’s big estimates. Funds remain long Chicago wheat futures and have gotten crushed, and they continued to exit long positions today. U...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets traded a bit better overnight with wheat markets again lower. China’s “low-level” trade delegation went home with no evidence that any progress had been made in the trade talks. The Trump administration still says it is days (maybe hours) from announci...
Market Commentary
Wheat and corn were lower overnight, and the soy complex was firm. The weakness in wheat was caused by a bigger-than-expected fund long position coupled with a chance for rain in eastern Australia. Soybeans were firm on continued trade optimism. Corn was confused over whether to follow wheat or...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight and again today. The night session ended with wheat up 9-11 cents, corn steady to a half-cent higher and soybeans down 5 cents. There was none of yesterday’s excitement in the soy complex today. It seems the trade settled back to thinking it might still take a...
This Could Be the Start of Something Big
It’s been another interesting week in the grain and soy markets, and following are some of the reasons why: The Trump administration announced some level of trade talks with China will get underway before the end of the month, and that news sent soybean futures sharply higher Thursd...
Aussie Feeder Cattle Boom; Korea Offsetting China as Pork Destination
Aussie Feeder Cattle Boom The inventory of Australian cattle in feedlots is at a record high despite bullish grain prices Down Under. The drivers have been drought and a lack of suitable grazing pasture. The total at the end of June (via quarterly inventory reports) was 1.12 million head,...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...
Debates Over Yields
The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...
The Bear is Back
USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected...
Another Side of the Wheat Market
U.S. wheat futures have rallied and exceeded their most recent highs set in June 2017. Chicago December wheat is back pushing against the $6.00 level today as the long-term chart shows below: The ongoing late season drought in the EU carved a much bigger hole in EU crop production than anyone...
Market Commentary
Soybeans were lower overnight with wheat and corn slightly higher. That was also today’s pattern, except that wheat found good buying soon after today’s session opened and traded 12 to 16 cents higher in all three wheat markets for most of the day. It was more talk about how bad the...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big soybean rally was sponsored by a press report indicating the possibility that the U.S. and China might resume a formal discussion on the current trade conflict. Overnight price action suggested that the rally was overdone as soybean futures gave back more than one-third of...
Uncertain Times Ahead
We often say that uncertainty is the lifeblood of commodity futures markets. The greater its perceived level, the greater is the degree of price volatility. Any economic sector that heavily depends on weather (e.g., the production of agricultural commodities) is guaranteed a relatively high deg...
The World of Wheat in 2018/19
For countries that supply renewable agricultural commodities to world buyers, a more perfect world occurs during a year when global demand for a particular one of those is growing while its production in most other competitors declines. In a sense, that is what is happening in the world wheat m...
Market Commentary
The sharp jump in world wheat prices on the back of wheat production losses in Russia, the EU, Australia and elsewhere along with the government’s $12 billion aid package for farmers harmed by retaliation against President Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs are the topics of the d...
Wheat Fundamentals Are Getting Stronger
U.S. wheat fundamentals have been improving quickly over the past several months, although this wouldn’t be apparent by looking at prices. Some of the key changes in the wheat market involve the outlook for crops in key wheat-producing countries. Russia’s wheat crop will be at least...
Market Commentary
The quietude of yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets continued in the overnight trading session. Volume and price movement were limited with nothing significant to inject trading interest or volume into the markets, and prices stayed close to Wednesday’s closes. At this morning...
Things to Watch Going Forward
This week’s USDA WASDE and production estimates were not quite as bearish as they might have been for the following reasons: The corn and soybean yield estimates were not changed, but they could be revised in August based on the current excellent crop ratings coupled with a very good-loo...
The July WASDE
Thanks to USDA’s effort to project the effect of the Chinese tariffs on the U.S. soybean supply/demand for 2017/18 and 2018/19 as well as the expected weather-related production changes for various export competitors, this was easily the most anticipated July WASDE in many years. The trad...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading pushed corn and soybean prices mildly lower with more pronounced weakness in wheat. Good weather, high weekly crop condition ratings and expectations that USDA’s July WASDE (to be released Thursday) will be bearish discouraged buyers and kept pressure on futures prices...
USDA Will Increase Ending Supplies Thursday
USDA will release its updated U.S. and world production estimates at 12 p.m. (EDT) Thursday. Those for U.S. corn and soybeans will be larger than in the previous month’s report if for no other reason than USDA will increase planted acreage numbers to match the June planting estimates. Her...
Market Commentary
U.S. soybean, corn and wheat markets finished the night session up 1-2 cents despite the U.S./China trade war becoming a reality overnight. However, the soybean and soymeal markets opened strong today and moved to big gains by midmorning, putting the trade issues behind for at least today. Corn...
“D-Day” for Tariffs
Today is D-Day for the imposition of tariffs, and the U.S. implemented them on $34 billion worth of goods from China. That country then quickly followed suit. There has been enough talk about this impending trade war, and everyone in the world is probably tired of chatting and reading about it...
Market Commentary
Today’s post-holiday market was not the frenzied affair that sometimes follows the 4th of July. There was no overnight session (due to the holiday), and trading seemed relatively subdued when it began this morning. It remained quiet even though wheat and soybeans closed with notable price...
Market Factors Ahead
As always, grain and soy markets along with those who trade in those commodities are looking ahead at several factors with the potential to move prices. Currently among those are the following: - USDA will release this month’s estimates of U.S. planted acreage for major crops on 29 June...
Market Commentary
Markets were all lower overnight, and that pattern accelerated throughout today’s session with wheat, corn and soybeans all suffering big losses at the close. The two primary factors in today’s markets are the following: Corn Belt weather looks wet for the first half of this week...
Market Commentary
It was a peaceful night session with corn and wheat showing very little change. Meanwhile, soybeans were 7-8 cents higher with meal up $2.00-3.00. Markets will probably be in idle mode until there are more developments on trade issues either with China or NAFTA. They seem to have factored in th...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
What USDA Didn’t Say
This week’s WASDE report from USDA was considered slightly bullish for prices, although that certainly wasn’t apparent by the market’s action during the past few trading sessions. U.S. corn and soybean ending supplies were reduced. World demand remains very strong, but crop pr...
Any USDA Surprises Tomorrow?
USDA will release its June WASDE (supply/demand) report tomorrow. Will there be any substantive surprises in tomorrow’s numbers? That is doubtful. It is more likely that markets will continue to worry more about all the various trade issues and the North Korean talks than changes in suppl...
Market Commentary
Markets were relatively quiet Sunday night, but corn and soybeans turned decidedly weaker today to finish with big losses. Funds started this week long everything except soyoil. They’ve had these positions for quite some time and evidently decided that today was the time to either get out...
Market Commentary
Futures were higher overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that China had agreed to purchase $70 billion of U.S. energy and agriculture products. Once again, this amounted to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation, and corn and soybean futures turned lower this afterno...
Trump Trade Trumps Weather
Markets continued their collapse today, following a lack of progress in the weekend trade talked between China and the U.S. The hardline Trump trade talk has trumped the continuation of less-than-ideal weather around the world that will eventually push markets higher. Our opinion remains that c...
All in Just Four Trading Days?
A week ago, WPI wrote about how farmers are optimistic about better markets for 2018 based on several at least somewhat positive factors. We should have waited a week. The markets changed a lot in this holiday-shortened trading week after starting the Monday evening session strong after t...
Market Commentary
Markets had an interesting finish to a mostly bearish holiday-shortened trading week. Prices were steady to firm overnight and started today’s session with small gains. Those gains didn’t last long, and the result was significant price swings throughout the session. The U.S. t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 May 2018 The average milling wheat export price remained stable at $212/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports were also steady at $200-204/MT CPT-Black Sea port. Meanwhile, 2018 wheat prices averaged $205/MT FOB. The average feed barley export price fell...
Market Commentary
Profit taking and surprisingly good crop condition ratings sparked a sell-off at the CBOT today. The overnight session featured losses of 3 cents for corn, 5.75 cents for soybeans and 8 cents for SRW wheat. The day session featured more of the same with bears testing key technical points for gr...
Unknowns and Uncertainties
The Memorial Day weekend at the end of May is widely considered to be the beginning of summer even though that season’s solstice does not occur for at least another three weeks. As farmers, traders, processors, exporters and everyone else with vested interest in the production of major U...
Market Commentary
Markets opened the Thursday evening session marginally softer after yesterday’s weakness. Corn and wheat pushing to new highs yesterday morning and then selling off when little fresh buying showed up provided a very weak-looking technical pattern. Markets finished the night session with s...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...
Wheat’s Story
We often talk about the stories that are told to grain and soy futures markets (and those who trade in them) by the underlying crop that each represents. Essentially, these stories are simply the conclusions drawn from current and prospective supply/demand fundamentals regarding how they might...
Market Commentary
Markets opened strong last night, and the soybean market extended that strength into big gains today. The story was the unexpectedly good news that the U.S. and China have declared a truce in the potential trade war with all potential duties and tariffs suspended. U.S. soybean exports to China...
Market Commentary
News overnight that China had dropped the import tariffs on U.S. sorghum ignited a nice rally in the corn market, which carried over to this morning and held together throughout today. Dry weather across some of the world’s major wheat-exporting regions, including the northern U.S. Plains...
Weather Check!
The National Weather Service issues its updated long-term weather forecasts once each month. Obviously, the May and June updates are important because they provide at least a glimpse of what weather conditions might be during the gut slot of the North American growing season. The maps below, re...
Market Commentary
Markets were all running for cover last night and today following what was considered a disappointing response to yesterday’s USDA reports. They actually contained a few bullish surprises, and the markets did try to respond by trading higher immediately after their release. However, they...
WASDE Wheat
The 2018/19 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,821 million bushels, up 5 percent from the prior year. The year-over-year increase is due to greater harvested area and slightly higher yield. Reduced beginning stocks and imports bring total supplies down 49 million bushels from the previous year...
U.S. and World Wheat Production Growing Smaller
We’ve been updating our ideas on U.S. wheat production over each of the past few months, and the primary reason for doing this so early in the season is that a severe drought has encased the southern Plains since early last fall. It has not abated and instead worsened. Despite the obvious...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Thursday night session mixed and traded that way until news the U.S. trade delegation to China was headed home without any positive announcements. Remember the markets closed better yesterday on rumors the trade discussions were going well with possibly favorable news today...
Cultured Meat; Animal Rights
The Strange Culture that Led to Cultured Meat For 40 years or more, a debate has been waged about the impact that the animal rights movement has had on the livestock and meat industry. It would have been almost unthinkable back in 1980, the year People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA...
Market Commentary
Much of the world has been enjoying the May Day holiday, which probably limited overnight trading volumes. Overnight futures prices found soybeans and wheat trading a bit lower, while corn hung around unchanged. Trading during the day came under the influence of diverse weather conditions and f...
2018 Crop Production May Not Be So Perfect
After noting in last Monday’s analysis (see Ag Perspectives, 23 April) that markets will be on cruise control for a month or so until crops get planted and growing season weather can be more fully assessed, it seems they have decided the 2018 growing season around the world will not be as...
Market Commentary
Markets were stronger overnight, led by (of all things) wheat. There were several reasons for that strength last night and today, including the following: Weather across the U.S. southern Plains remains warm to hot, dry and windy. Yields and the percentage of harvested acres are both going dow...
Market Commentary
Follow-through from Tuesday’s rally sent grain and soybean prices higher overnight in moderate volume. Word late Tuesday that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, possibly accompanied by U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, would go to Beijing to discuss economic and trade issues was taken a...
Markets in Neutral
Market are shifting more into neutral now that weather across the Corn Belt and northern Plains is finally starting to turn spring-like and even summerish after one of the coldest spring seasons on record. The problem this year is that these conditions didn’t arrive until this last week o...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers
UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...
Barley Supplies Will Be Smallest in Over 25 Years
Market commentaries rarely discuss any crops other than corn, wheat or soybeans. This is because they have futures markets, and that means speculators. Another reason is that the production volumes of the minor crops are very small relative to the “big three.” These crops include ba...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - primarily due to Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stoc...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
China Proposing Tariffs on U.S. Beef; NAFTA Deal Coming?; Record Red Meat; Changes in Beef Imports
China Proposing Tariffs on U.S. Beef China’s tariffs for U.S. pork products (see Ag Perspectives, 2 April 2018), which are in addition to existing duties, are probably one of its more strategic retaliatory strikes in the current trade dispute. Domestic hog and pork prices there are down m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
News Updates Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Oman Food Investment Holding Company (OFIC) is planning to invest $100 million in a facility that can produce 750,000 MT of soymeal and 175,000 MT of soyoil annually, which should be sufficient to cover 100 percent of Oman&rsq...
WTO Makeover; Taxing Success; Ring-Fence Skepticism
WTO Makeover There is reasonable concern that the Trump administration is blocking the appointment of appellant judges at the WTO as part of a goal to implode the current binding dispute settlement process. It would be Trumpian to believe that the U.S. would fare better by returning to the nego...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action saw grain and soy prices continue the firmer trend set by the rebound from earlier losses late in Monday’s day session that was enough to maintain positive technical support. Soybeans and winter wheat were a few cents higher, and corn gained a fraction of a cent ove...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat exports for 2017/18 are reduced 25 million bushels to 925 million, while ending stocks are raised by the same amount. Exports are lowered on reduced price competitiveness in some international markets. Hard red winter wheat and hard red spring wheat exports are reduced 15...
Planned Excess
Contrary to President Trump’s latest boast, trade wars are not good and not easy to win. U.S. agriculture now feels threatened by the effort to protect the American steel and aluminum sector. What is notable, though, is the similarity between food and steel. Production of both is deemed i...
Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought
Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be back on trend to match a more normal five-year average. All five of Australia’s top markets imported more beef in January than a year...
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...
WASDE Wheat
Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased. Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Fl...
TPP Reality?; U.S.-China Trade War
TPP Reality? Aggies are trying to decipher the degree of seriousness behind President Trump’s announcement in Davos that he would reconsider joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On the one hand, most things that go into a presidential speech are well vetted and discussed. Treasury...
Hints of Changing Dynamics
Simplistic economics suggest that the value of any freely-traded commodity is ultimately determined by the balance between its supplies and demand. That is especially true for renewable crops such as grains and oilseeds that have their supplies replenished annually or semi-annually if productio...
From TPP to CPTPP; Year-End Meat and Poultry Production
From TPP to CPTPP What started under the Obama administration as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), comprised of the U.S. and 11 other countries, will end as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on 8 March. This is when the pact will be signed in C...
WASDE Wheat
"Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Wheat feed and residual use f...
Straws in the Wind
In 2017, U.S. corn and soybean growers experienced unexpectedly large yields, but the benefits of that were largely offset by very low crop prices. Winter wheat farmers had the worst of both – quite a small crop and very low prices. While spring wheat production was also small (thanks to...
Do We Dare Be Bullish?
For many months, the CME grain and soy markets have been stuck in a fundamentally, technically and emotionally bearish pattern. Typically, trading volumes and volatility levels decline during bearish market cycles, which has certainly been the case this time around. Underlying all of the bearis...
The December WASDE
USDA’s December WASDE, released at midday, fits right into the history of previous issues for this month. They very seldom contain surprises but are always interesting, especially since they come along at a time of year when markets must search hard to find anything that is compelling. Th...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA’s latest figures. The agency’s updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets offer important implications for the U.S. market and prices. Commodity Analytics distills the essential information from this latest update...
No Excitement Expected in the December USDA Reports
USDA will release its December WASDE report tomorrow at noon (EST), and it has been impossible to find anyone who thinks it will include any numbers that are unexpected or will change the flow of the markets. It is important to remember that there will be no adjustments to the U.S. corn or soyb...
Things Worth Mentioning
As we move deeper into December, the energies and anxieties of the approaching holiday season become more noticeable. Whether that is good or bad depends on one’s point of view, but there is no denying that the collective level of stress seems to click a few notches higher at this time of...
Increasing La Nina Talk and Rising Soybean Prices
Soybean futures gapped upward in the Sunday evening session, trading 10-12 cents higher most of the night. The March contract traded right to $10.20, which is considered major technical resistance. The driver is weather across southern Brazil and Argentina. It continues to be dry there with lit...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started the month of December higher. Soybeans were the leader on slightly drier forecasts for southern Brazil and Argentina. Wheat was also strong, led by the Minneapolis December contract, which closed up 9.25 cents after seeing double-digit gains. KC and Chicago wer...
Ag Review - November 2017
This month's look at the markets around the world. We have seen a lot of activity this month and things are looking up internationally. Check out this month's issue for more detail...
Aussie Livestock in China; U.S. Live Cattle Trade
Aussie Livestock in China In the past few years, China has transitioned from being a non-market to an open market and then a closed market for U.S. ethanol and DDGS. At one point, its demand drove DDGS prices to more than 130 percent of the price of corn. In addition, China became the largest m...
Trump Bends on Biofuel; Support Revamp; Protection Sought
Trump Bends on Biofuel President Trump can be self-contradictory at times. However, when reminded of his pledge all across Iowa last year that he would “save” ethanol, this week he ordered EPA chief, Scott Pruitt, to reverse plans that would have reduced the biodiesel mandate and al...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were quietly steady to higher overnight following yesterday’s strong closes in soybeans that pulled corn higher as well. Soybean futures continued to lead the markets higher today after yesterday’s positive USDA numbers. Weekly export sales were releas...
A Friendly USDA Report
Today’s crop production and supply/demand estimates were considered slightly bullish for soybeans but neutral corn and wheat. Soybean futures traded more than 30 cents higher immediately after the report was released, and that pulled corn futures 6-7 cents higher as well with wheat initia...
Fake Standards; FDA Flunks; Aussie Prostration; Nuke Leverage
The Environmental Working Group confuses exposure with actual risk; “Love” is no longer a granola ingredient; Australia believes it can negotiation better trade deals on its own. Fake Standards The Environmental Working Group (EWG) issued a study charging that high nitrate levels in rural drink...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn sales, combined with the U.S.' current share of global exports, points to an interesting road ahead. Moreover, U.S. wheat, soybean, and soy...
U.S. Wheat's Mixed Bag
WPI forecasts 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports will be 5% above USDA’s latest projection. Russia’s record production will not be able to overcome...Among the little surprises in last Friday’s reports from USDA NASS was the increase in estimated hard red spring (HRS) wheat production. Private observer...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is expected to have a robust sugarcane harvest with production at 25.1 MMT in sugar year 2017/18, and there has been considerable discussion about enhancing the mills’ ethanol production capabilities. Sugar or Ethanol India is expected to have a robust sugarcane harvest with production at...
Ag Review: Meat Exports and Macroeconomic Opportunities
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Gr...
Market Commentary
Today’s futures trade was quiet with low volume, just as one might expect on the day prior to an important report from USDA. In fact, nearly all of today’s price movement occurred during the first hour of trading. General Comments Today’s futures trade was quiet with low volume, just as one mig...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Soybean Yields; Global Rapeseed Output; New Soy Crush Plant
Global rapeseed production in 2017/18 has been forecast to closely match that of the previous year. While crop sizes are expected to change among several countries, the estimate for Canada's output is surprising. Farmers Generally Pleased with Early Soybean Yields Yesterday’s USDA crop pr...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw volume fade and prices wobble before finishing near Monday’s closes, but more of a price pattern developed during the day session. Some of this was due to unwinding of long soybeans/short corn and/or wheat spreads. General Comments The overnight session saw volume fade...
Market Commentary
There were likely three issues that pushed all three wheat markets to gains today despite the weakness in soybeans and flat corn market. General Comments Soybeans led the markets lower overnight. However, wheat turned higher this morning, led by Minneapolis.A hint of rain is in the extended wea...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine FOB market for soybeans is quiet to start this week. Sellers are quoting $0.60X for October and November shipments (protein 34/33), but another factor is making this origin uncompetitive against others. Soybeans International Market Dynamics The soybean market has been very slow t...
Market Commentary
Most of the market talk today was about upcoming harvest pressure (or perhaps the lack thereof) in corn and soybeans. KC and Chicago wheat futures couldn’t hold any gains as a result of some strength in those markets. General Comments Markets were firm overnight, and the highlight was soybean f...
There is No Escaping Weather
Clearly, there are a number of weather-related situations with the potential to become important market factors in the months ahead.Weather is a topic for never-ending discussion, especially in the late summer of 2017 with Mexico, the Caribbean Islands, Texas Gulf Coast, Florida and Georgia sla...
Market Commentary
An initial spurt of buying that followed the very large export sales announcements from USDA/FAS put soybean prices up nearly 9 cents. Wheat futures, though, held onto the biggest gains today. General Comments The Fed ended its September meeting with the expected decisions to leave its key fed...
Peering Over the Horizon
The current limited price action of both the corn and soybean markets is reflecting the lack of fresh market-moving inputs. Looking ahead at the next three months, however, there should be no shortage.Grain and soy futures market performance during the first 19 days of September and on the cusp...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The 12.5 pro Russian wheat has moved up about $3 in the past two weeks, but it remains the cheapest origin by far for this quality. As a result, buyers from one specfic region are switching from a different origin. Milling Wheat The 12.5 pro Russian wheat has moved up about $3 in the past two w...
CETA to Squeeze EU Beef Market; Aussie Grain-Fed Beef; EU Net Beef Exporter
The drought in Australia during 2015 and the end of dairy production quotas in the EU are both having an impact on the global beef market. CETA to Squeeze EU Beef Market The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which becomes effective 21 September, will squeeze U.S. and...
Market Commentary
If there is a surprising market reaction to the September WASDE, it can be found in Chicago and KC wheat futures that mostly closed around 7 cents higher despite the unchanged U.S. wheat numbers. General Comments Markets have been waiting for the September WASDE since about an hour after USDA r...
The September WASDE
For the second month in a row, the 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the great majority of private analysts and crop scouts.For the second month in a row, the higher 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the g...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA's latest figures. The agency's updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets offer important implications for the U.S. market and prices. Commodity Analytics distills the essential information from this latest update and present...
USDA Report Preview
Many in the trade are still skeptical that the corn and soybean yields can be as big as the August estimates and pre-report estimates for the September report, and there are two primary reasons why.The key numbers in the USDA reports to be released at 12 P.M. (EDT) on 12 September will of cours...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started mostly steady Sunday evening, but wheat prices weakened throughout the night and continued that trend this morning. Trade today was in "anticipation" mode for tomorrow's USDA reports. General Comments Hurricane Irma has now been downgraded to a tropical storm a...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded slightly higher much of the day, but there was zero excitement with relatively light volume. All three wheat markets were also higher much of last night and today, although only one could hold any gains at the close. General Comments Markets were quiet overnight in very ligh...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments and stories in the news this week that could have future market implications. Stats Canada released its initial production estimates yesterday morning, which were generally a bit smaller than the trade was expecting. Among the Canadian crop projections were the...
Market Commentary
Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of grain and soy prices across the board with one exception. Overnight trade was slow with low volume, offering no sign of the day session excitement to come. General Comments Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of gr...
Leaving Never Good; Non-Price Factors; Taxing Imports
Donald Trump has threatened three times this week to pull the U.S. out of NAFTA, but the Mexicans have a rebuttal. Separately, there are now undesired consequences for at least one U.S. industry because of his withdrawal from the TPP. Leaving Never a Good Idea Donald Trump has threatened three...
More Misinformed; Fueled Problems
Mark Twain famously said, “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.” Spin forward to today, and the disseminators of false information as well as the people who believe them are much more numerous. More Misinformed Mark Twain famously sa...
Will Wheat Market Blues Ever End?
If smaller U.S. supplies and a smaller carryout cannot stop the long-term U.S. wheat markets’ bearishness, it is fair to ask what can. Some potentially important signs of change are actually beginning to show.We have occasionally noted that wheat futures markets seem to have no friends. It seem...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A Saudi consortium is said to be investing as much as $500 million in the redevelopment of 25,000 acres in one country along with what is said will be the largest poultry farming project in the Middle East and North Africa. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Contrary to the rep...
Market Commentary
Hurricane Harvey is creating export challenges, but robust yield estimates keep pressuring grain and oilseed futures. The cattle and hog markets took diverging paths with cattle earning triple-digit gains and hogs suffering triple-digit losses. General Comments Grain futures were mixed in moder...
The State of U.S. Wheat’s Competitiveness
It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in world markets, and there are many reasons why. However, that may be starting to change.It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Egyptian Company for Agriculture and Rural Development (ECARD), a government agency, will restart its contract growing program with the main focus on one particular crop. It is hoped that this effort will help substantially reduce the need for imported stocks. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/M...
Bulls Take Cover
Corn, soybean and wheat futures markets continued in full retreat today to start the fourth consecutive week of lower prices. All of this bearishness has left farmers in the lurch, but the next remaining hope for a bullish reversal would seem to be related to an event that started today.Corn, s...
Market Commentary
December corn futures got within a nickel of last August’s (2016) low. Some technical traders see that as the final downside objective. Meanwhile, the market will look at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report heading into next week’s trade. General Comments Markets were quietly mixed in overni...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) has announced that field trials for GM maize and cotton will start in October 2017, which is contrary to the efforts of one government ministry. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS A new finance program with Saudi Arabia will allow the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As the GM food debate in India continues, the supply and demand gap, especially of vegetable oil, is widening, and farmers are losing money due to pest attacks while using more pesticides and herbicides. Possible Sugar Imports Could Alleviate Shortages in a Few States Sugar prices have moved u...
Market Commentary
The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s bearish USDA reports and subsequent price collapse. The Minneapolis wheat market then again bore the brunt of the selling today. General Comments The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s beari...
WASDE; Japan Says No
Today’s WASDE report shows overall animal protein production revised upward for the year, and Japan imposes safeguard tariffs on frozen beef for the first time since 1996. WASDE USDA released its August WASDE report today, forecasting red meat and poultry production to be higher than previously...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at the highest level since before the 2011 Arab Spring, reaching $36.0 billion, and that the trade deficit has fallen 46 percent. Much of it is attributed to two developments. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egyp...
Speculating About the August WASDE
It has been largely overlooked amidst all the focus on the U.S. corn and soybean crop prospects, but the August WASDE is likely to also contain some other interesting changes affecting various supply/demand balances.The August WASDE is always one of the most intently anticipated of USDA’s month...
Market Commentary
Markets started Sunday evening with small gains, and that’s the way they traded the entire night session in light volume. Wheat was then a reluctant follower of the rallies in corn and soybeans today until those set new daily highs in the last 30 minutes. General Comments Markets started Sunday...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybeans losing nearly 50 cents, corn a dime and wheat 10-20 cents. Both corn and the soy complex had small trading ranges. General Comment Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybean...
Why 2017/18 Will Be Different
A number of developing factors over the past several weeks suggest that the 2017/18 crop cycle will be different across the globe.Major common threads for world agricultural production, trade and crop prices during the last four crop cycles were growing production and building global stocks. Th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenyan farmers are saying that the extended duty-free maize import period will make large volumes of those low-cost stocks available when the local crop is harvested in September. They are also unhappy about the impact of a Kenya Food Reserve Agency decision. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITE...
Ag Review: Geopolitics and the Black Sea
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Gr...
Market Commentary
The market still isn’t ready to decide whether the general dryness over the western Corn Belt and northern Plains is enough to reduce corn yields to more bullish levels. Meanwhile, Minneapolis wheat futures took over the lead again today, although KC and Chicago were not lagging far behind. Ge...
A Different Year Ahead
The global abundance of agricultural crops during the past four years is unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable. Change is inevitable, and it now clearly seems to be coming with the 2017/18 crop cycle.The safest truism in the world of agricultural commodities is that nothing ever stays the...
Fundamental Food Economics; Australia/New Zealand Frustrations
Australia and New Zealand do not practice perfect market economics, but their agricultural policies can be better than many others. Fundamental Food Economics EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker kowtowed to the demands of Eastern European member states to ensure that they received the s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is reported to be the destination for about 95 percent of all Ukrainian wheat bran exports in the first 11 months of MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, there are two factors driving its corn imports higher in 2017/18. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has...
Market Commentary
The corn and soybean markets were both bearish today on the overnight rains that were better than expected. Spring wheat futures were again soft, and some of this is the unwinding of long Minneapolis against short Chicago and KC positions. General Comments Rain trumps everything in a weather ma...
Market Commentary
More hot, dry weather emboldened bulls at the CBOT today. WPI’s future-implied crop yield models hold different outlooks for corn versus soybeans. General Comments Unless you were a wheat trader, it was good to be long in the overnight session. December corn and November soybeans added 5 and 7...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s rather placid grain and soy futures trade was replaced by a return of the weather market overnight. Most prices for corn, wheat and soybeans quickly leapt to double-digit gains, and higher prices carried over into the day session, at least until midday. General Comments Yesterday’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While South Africa has its biggest maize crop in about forty years and will once again be an exporter, it will have difficulty shipping to some maize-starved East African countries due to certain import restrictions. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt reports that flour...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybean basis moved sharply higher this week as Chinese buyers suddenly wanted to purchase August soybeans, both FOB and CNF. The basis CNF reaction then provided a window of opportunity to another origin, which sold four cargoes for August to China. Soybeans Brazil Brazilian so...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean and wheat futures finished the evening session about unchanged. Minneapolis wheat futures were then firmer this morning, soybeans turned higher, and corn managed to occasionally trade slightly higher, but they did not all close that way. General Comments Based on weekend temperatu...
Takeaways from the July WASDE
The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for crops in the western Corn Belt invested yesterday’s July WADSE with perhaps a bit more significance than might normally be the case.The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for c...
U.S. Meat Exports Losing Leverage in Japan
The EU has negotiated a trade deal with Japan following on the Japan-Australia agreement of 2015. With the U.S. pulled out of the TPP, U.S. red meat exporters are now at a disadvantage with two of their biggest competitors.When President Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a...
Many Questions, Few Answers
USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. However, circumstances have changed the intensity of interest as this year's edition comes out, and there are many questions.USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. [This year’s edition will be rel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Two factors drove basis higher, especially in the CNF market where the most liquid position has been August. Soybeans The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Lack of farmer selling and trading houses’ short positions drove...
Market Commentary
The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining to constrain trading in grain and soy futures. The general quiet trend continued during today's session in much the same fashion as it did Tuesday. General Comments The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s landed price of imported soybeans dropped $14/MT to $387/MT even as the yuan fell slightly against the U.S. dollar. That lower cost, however, was offset by a development that brought down wholesale prices. Oilseeds Soymeal Inventories Finally Retreat As expected, sever...
2017/18 U.S. Wheat Outlook
A great abundance of wheat supplies in the U.S. and a record-large volume in the world were the dominant features in 2016/17 that resulted in relatively low wheat prices. However, there will be major changes in the U.S. 2017/18 wheat supply/demand balance.Grain futures markets have been relativ...
Status of Barley and Oat Crops
The focus on the northern Plains drought has been on its potential impact on hard red spring wheat production, and that is important for several reasons. However, there has been little talk about how it might affect yield potential for barley and oats.The focus on the northern Plains drought ha...
Wheat Keeps Getting More Interesting
As spring crop ratings plunged again last week and hard red winter wheat protein levels continue to be a concern, issues with wheat production outside of North America are also worsening. As noted in the most recent crop progress report (see Ag Perspectives, 19 June), spring wheat crop ratings...
Market Commentary
It is tough to have a corn or soybean rally in June when temperatures are below normal and there is at least some precipitation in the forecast. Wheat, led by the Minneapolis spring wheat contract, has been the only game in town for the bulls. General Comments It is tough to have a corn or soyb...
Market Commentary
Corn and soy complex futures traded rather quietly overnight with minimal price changes. However, wheat prices moved higher again. During the day session, wheat futures markets then seized on the deteriorating U.S. crop along with a few other developments. General Comments Corn and soy complex...
Market Commentary
It was interesting that corn’s losses were being blamed on a better weather outlook, but that same forecast didn’t push soybeans lower. The soy complex was trading on the positive side almost the entire session, but a development at the close caused soybean and soyoil futures to finish down. Ge...
Is U.S. Weather the Only Game in Town?
Markets have been concentrating on the start to the U.S. growing season, and that will continue to be the dominant market factor for the next 30-60 days. However, there are several other issues that might start to attract more of their attention.Markets have been concentrating on the start to t...
Market Commentary
Minneapolis wheat futures took the lead again in overnight trade, and that pattern followed through at the day session opening. The uncertainty today was that there are some good chances for widely scattered rain events and cooler temperatures in the short-term forecasts. Bulls and bears could...
It’s Weather Time
It is now past the prime reproductive period for small grains (spring wheat, durum, barley, oats, etc.), and the critical weather period for corn and soybean crops is getting very close. How the latter and several other elements develop over the next 30 days will affect markets. It is now past...
Details of U.S.-China Beef Deal Reached
The beef industry is still reviewing the new regulations for resuming shipments to China, and that analysis will lead to assumptions about export volumes next year.Yesterday USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) announced that the details of a protocol for U.S. import access to China were...
Weather Market Vagaries
Markets were down rather hard today. They started lower in the Sunday evening session, and those losses accelerated once today’s trading session got underway. It appears that minor changes in some of the weather forecasts led to today’s sell-off.Markets were down rather hard today. They started...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Egyptian GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Russian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin over the weekend, paying $204.02-206.40/MT CNF for 10-20 July shipment. The prices were about $3 higher than in the previous week’s tender, most likely because of one particular factor. Milling Wheat The h...
Record Choice Select Spread; U.S.-Canada Dairy Spat Goes Beyond NAFTA
The demand for higher grade beef has been driving up cattle prices. Meanwhile, more countries are joining the U.S. regarding its concern about Canada’s new dairy policy. Record Choice Select Spread Cattle futures prices have mostly stabilized this week as cash prices trend bullish. Last year ca...
Wheat on the March
Old habits are often hard to break, but bearish fund managers are undoubtedly becoming nervous about their short wheat positions and probably with good reason.To the extent that markets can develop habits, being bearish on the price of wheat is an example. This goes back to 2013 as the world be...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet much of the Thursday night session, but they gained a little steam early this morning and closed higher. USDA's announcement of a sale to Spain then perked up the soybean market today, while corn received some negative news. General Comments Markets were quiet much of the Thu...
Record Cattle on Feed; Holy Cow: Indian Cattle Ban
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover ratios show that cattle feeders are remaining relatively current on marketings. However, placement data suggests the current supply/demand...
Barley Now A Specialty Crop
Barley acres have taken a significant brunt of the corn and oilseed acreage expansion in the U.S. and Canada, and there are a number of reasons why.The U.S. northern Plains have become solidly part of the Corn Belt. Corn and soybean acres continue to squeeze out those of the traditional crops o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC has raised the minimum protein requirements on its wheat tenders, and some indicate this may be a problem for one particular origin. Meanwhile, there has been a reported shortage of imported wheat for blending with domestic stocks to raise the overall milling quality. MIDDLE EAST/...
The Complexities of Wheat
Wheat has been the whipping boy of the market for the past several years and the short leg of every spread. Unlike corn and soybeans, which are the same around the world no matter the origin, wheat is more complex.The world has produced four consecutive wheat crops, and “awash in wheat” has lon...
Chinese Chicken; Cheese Please
One lawmaker’s concerns over chicken imports may be a hurdle for U.S. beef access to China. Meanwhile, its growth in exports shows cheese is a new trend in global protein trade. Chinese Chicken as Hurdle for U.S. Beef Access to China Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) has a long histor...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were under some selling pressure in the Sunday night session with soybeans slightly higher on very light trading volume. Selling then accelerated in wheat at today’s opening on more fund selling as soybeans traded as much as 9-10 cents higher. General Comments Corn and wh...
China Opens to U.S. Beef – for Real This Time
The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, which includes U.S. beef access to the Chinese market for the first time in almost 14 years. What can be expected?President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met in Florida in early April to discuss a number of bilateral trade issues and mutual...
Money and Hypocrites; Shrinking Yield Folly; Nanny NaNa; Rigged
Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and lingering animosity over WWII atrocities, the finance ministers for China, Japan and South Korea managed to reach agreement on language opposing protectionism. Money and Hypocrites Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Iraq’s Kurdish wheat farmers are very upset that the government only intends to buy 500,000 MT of their 1.8 MMT production. The government says that it does not have the funds available to buy any more than that, but the Kurds disagree and cite a different reason. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/M...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There are a number of issues, many weather-related, currently affecting crops in the U.S. and around the world.The Kansas wheat crop quality tour will take place next week. This one could prove to be interesting because a number of those who have been looking around this week don’t believe the...
Ag Review: Can Exports Save the Dairy Industry?
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Grain Industry Industry focus on divesting non-core business units will stabilize b...
A Look at U.S., Canadian and World Barley Supplies
The 31 March USDA planting intentions reports indicated notable changes ahead for U.S. barley acreage, and there are several reasons why.Barley acres in the U.S. have followed the pattern of wheat over the last few decades with planted area now forecast to drop 17 percent from 2016. 70 percent...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
April and May corn basis have started to heat up in Argentina due to several factors. There are still some shorts in the market, and those with port logistics will sell only at an attractive basis quote. Meanwhile, demand for deferred shipments (July onward) is still absent following release of...
China and U.S. Meat Exports; GIPSA Rule
China will increase its meat imports this year, potentially including U.S. beef. Meanwhile, USDA action this week has further delayed the livestock marketing rule called for in the 2008 Farm Bill. Trump/Xi Meeting Results in Movement on U.S. Beef Ban President Trump reported on his recent meeti...
Weather Scare Season
As the 2017/18 new crop cycle gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, it is inevitable that new weather scares will emerge to energize or torment market traders, and there are several real or potential candidates.In grain market parlance, a weather scare occurs when current or forecast condit...
China In-Country Analysis
After closing out 2016 with a solid November and a record December, U.S. sorghum exports to China began 2017 by setting a new record for the month of January. While the outlook is somewhat opaque due to local factors there, they are on pace to have the third-best first quarter ever. Oil...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) addressed several trade matters as it issued decisions regarding import duties on wheat, pulses and sunflower seeds as well as the use of methyl bromide fumigation at the country's ports. Duty Imposed on Wheat and Pulses Imports The government of India (GOI) has de...
Draft Outline for NAFTA Renegotiation
The Trump administration has prepared a draft letter notifying Congress of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, which spells out the objectives while pledging to work cooperatively with the legislative body on the process.The Trump administration has prepared a draft letter notifying Congress of it...
Cattle on Feed; McDonald’s Going to Fresh Beef
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings show the industry is remaining current on inventories. Analysis of the fed cattle supply situation offers insight into trading strategies t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is facing a possible tight sugar supply situation with lower-than-expected production and higher-than-expected demand. India is considering import duties on sugar, wheat, and pulses to help... Duty on wheat and pulses imports possible In order to protect the Indian wheat growers, the gove...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat prices were lower last week on farmer selling and lack of export demand. Soyoil is now priced at a discount to sunflower oil, ending an extended period of... Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week due to increased farmer selling and lack of fresh export demand i...
Go Status Quo; Supply Restrictions
There is no such thing as free trade but Germany and Japan are calling for a concerted effort to defend it. Elsewhere, the U.S. considers joining the EU, Zambia, and Nigeria in adopting supply-restricting policies. Status Quo is Good for Me There is no such thing as free trade, but according to...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
After three months of constantly rising prices, the Black Sea milling wheat market has finally turned lower for several reasons. Meanwhile, Bulgarian feed wheat for July/August is the cheapest for Spain as it has an advantage over Ukrainian origin. Milling Wheat After three months of constantly...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Although the market can now put the South American soybean crop in the rearview mirror, one potential problem remains. Meanwhile, the U.S. southern Plains hard red winter wheat crop, well ahead of normal in terms of development, is getting deeper into trouble every day. Another USDA WASDE (sup...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were lower overnight in lackluster, low volume trade. Then today’s USDA WASDE with its larger Brazilian and Argentine production, larger world production and larger ending world stocks added slightly more pressure on already weaker prices. General Comments Grain and soy fu...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The trade is interested in buying Bulgarian/Romanian feed wheat for July/August at €157/MT ($167/MT) FOB. While Ukrainian origin might be available at the same price, one factor rmakes it much less attractive. Milling Wheat The FOB market in the Black Sea remains firm despite the weaker domesti...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat prices have softened quite a bit in the past five weeks as imports have been good. While there has been no official announcement yet, it is being speculated that the government of India (GOI) might impose a 25 percent tariff on wheat imports as of 1 April for two reasons. Wheat Prices Sof...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent Rabobank report says the poultry industry will grow more than 60 percent over the next 20 years, but the expansion will be far greater percentage-wise in Sub-Sahara Africa than globally. While that sector has not previously attracted much investment there, the report indicates a reason...
Ag Review: Farm Equipment Outlook 2017
2016 Agribusiness Performance Recap and 2017 OutlookWPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The U.S. Grains Industry Now, perhaps more than ever, the U.S. grain industry’s success i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's production of milk, egg and poultry meat continues to grow, but most of that is consumed by a simultaneously expanding population. However, its buffalo meat is in high export demand for several reasons. India’s Sugar Production Continues to Trail as Prices Rise Sugar prices continue to...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian and Australian Canola Crop Forecasts; More Biodiesel in Brazil; Mexico’s Soybean and Corn Imports
While several recent articles have cited officials in Mexico arguing that the country should shift away from the U.S. as its main supplier of soybeans and corn because of President Trump's criticism of its trade surplus, there are reasons to believe that this will not occur. Canada May Have Rec...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Maize and sorghum prices in eastern Africa are at record levels due to last year’s severe drought. Meanwhile, one organization has warned of an infestation in southern Africa this year that could be a more significant threat to crops than the current outbreak of fall armyworms. Regional Updates...
Market Commentary
CME prices started to drift a bit lower overnight in slowing volume as concerns about the growing avian flu problem in China caused Dalian prices for corn and soymeal to continue this week’s slide. Grain and soy futures prices were then soft to begin day trading, but a return of fund buying rev...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While too early to know whether India’s oil meal exports are rebounding, domestic demand is growing, especially for de-oiled rice bran (DORB).That open market price has risen to $167/MT, impacting the biggest user and pricing of two major products. Oil Meal Exports Higher but Slowing Soymeal pr...
U.S. Beef, Pork and Poultry Exports in 2016; Trump-Abe Meeting
USDA data confirmed last year’s beef, pork and poultry exports all increased over 2015, and one category showed exceptional growth. Meanwhile, U.S. producers hope the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will lead to more exports in the future. Record Pork Expo...
Fear-Driven Exports; Skewed Trade Sought
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) needs another big economy within the trade pact since the U.S. dropped out, and the Australians solicited the Chinese to fill the role. Fear-Driven Exports New Zealand scientists have developed a genetically-engineered grass that is heat tolerant, produces a...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures continued to show strength as they ended overnight trade about 8 cents higher. That rally persisted during the day session while the grains traded lower early on. General Comments Soybean futures continued to show strength as they ended overnight trade about 8 cents higher. Desp...
An Unhappy Outlook for U.S. Wheat
It would not be fair or accurate to call wheat a minor U.S. crop, but it seems headed in that direction due to wheat prices that have been low enough to defy profitability in recent years as well as another factor.The array of reports from USDA on 12 January included its initial estimate of the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent British report on the maize-damaging fall armyworm in Africa states that the entire continent could suffer from outbreaks within a very few years. Thus far, 10 countries there have been afflicted by this particular type of armyworm that is not native to Africa. Regional Updates MIDDLE...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Offers of feed wheat are very difficult to find in Ukraine, and none are available in Romania and Bulgaria. The only available origin in the Black Sea is Russian, but one trait is limiting its potential destinations. Milling Wheat The Black Sea market stayed supported last week due to slow farm...
Oilseed Highlights: Large U.S. Soymeal Sales; Caterpillar Emergency in Brazil, Soyoil-Based Graphene
Today’s USDA export sales report brought some good news to the U.S. soy sector in the form of larger-than-expected soymeal export sales last week. Meanwhile, researchers in Australia have discovered how to make graphene from soyoil. Large U.S. Soymeal Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export...
U.S. Export Competitiveness in Five Charts
Drivers of U.S. soybean, corn, wheat, soymeal and sorghum export opportunities are discussed with a view toward the long run.While large export volumes surprised the market early this year, they have occurred regularly since then and are factored into models. Understanding why U.S. exporters ha...
Oilseed Highlights: Limited Biodiesel Feedstocks; Philippines’ Higher Soymeal Imports; Tight Rapeseed Supplies in Europe
The National Biodiesel Board believes reinstatement of the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit and issuing payments to producers instead of blenders will allow it to greatly boost production while eliminating most of the biodiesel that is now imported. Where Will U.S. Biodiesel Industry Get Feedstoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has forecast that maize plantings will increase 31 percent in 2017 with those of white maize up by 53.5 percent and yellow maize by 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, there is a debate in the country regarding usage of Roundup weed killer. Regional Up...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The market chatter for much of this week concerned the many guesses coming out of Argentina on lost acres and possible final production. Meanwhile, two factors make it difficult to assess the accuracy of Brazilian crop forecasts. It’s Over Inauguration Day has come and gone, and Donald Trump is...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Chickpeas are a popular source of protein in India. However, prices of the whole chickpea and the split dal (pulse) are on the rise. As a result, many consumers have shifted to one alternative. High Chickpea Prices Shift Demand to Yellow Peas Chickpeas are a popular source of protein in India...
Trump Trade Policy Emerges; Risk-Based GMOs
After three days of congressional hearings and other public musings, the actual trade policy approach of the incoming Trump administration is becoming clearer. Trump Trade Policy Emerges After three days of congressional hearings and other public musings, the actual trade policy approach of the...
Oilseed Highlights: Size of Brazilian Soybean Crop; Big Aussie Canola Crop; More Soybeans than Corn in 2017
If recent forecasts are to be believed, Brazil’s 2017 soybean crop will apparently not only be a record, it will be huge. As optimistic as those projections are, however, there is some evidence to suggest it will be smaller. Is Brazil’s Soybean Crop as Large as Many Forecast? If the forecasts i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
After being stable until the third week of December 2016, sugar prices are moving up faster than expected in this current sugar season as there is higher demand from institutions. However, there are also a few other factors that are having an impact. Higher Per Capita Income and Lower GDP Growt...
U.S. Retaliates on EU Beef Ban; Cold Storage Report
The decades-old U.S./EU beef trade dispute is back on the front burner as the U.S. decides to retaliate. Meanwhile, a USDA report, which showed meat and poultry in cold storage down from last year, included a particularly notable surprise. U.S .Retaliates on Beef Trade with the EU The decades-o...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet, low volume overnight session, and perhaps the most telling feature of today was the very narrow daily trading ranges across the board. Outside markets provided little or no inspiration for grains or the soy complex either. General Comments It was a quiet, low volume overnight se...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Strong grain demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is overwhelming Russia’s port facilities, pushing the government there to expand and modernize them. Two factors have made these Russian stocks very price competitive in the region. Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN...
The Attack of the U.S. Dollar
With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a hawkish approach to monetary policy over the next two-three years, the U.S. dollar is on a tear. However, its extreme strength holds ramifications for commodity markets, including grains and oilseeds.With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a h...
Market Commentary
Sunday markets started firm with early soybean futures trading as much as 10-11 cents higher, but that buying dissipated with all markets slightly lower to start today’s session. Some analysts believe the sell-off that occurred was triggered by the potential impact of a political position...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was lethargic early today, but it improved significantly in the last hour of the session when prices started to rally. Accelerated buying into the close brought soybean futures back to their highs for the day, which was mirrored by one of the other markets. General Comments Marke...
USDA Report and a Few Random Thoughts
While today's USDA December WASDE did not contain any significant changes to the bottom line of U.S. ending supplies, there were some adjustments to the world production estimates. Meanwhile, there have been a few other ongoing developments.USDA released its December WASDE (supply/demand) estim...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As GOI has now decided to completely remove the import duty on wheat, prices have dropped slightly after moving up prior to the announcement.. With Ukrainian and/or Australian currently at $210/MT delivered Indian port versus much higher domestic prices, imports are likely to continue over the...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices pulled back in overnight trade. There were negative influences from declines for Dalian futures prices and Malaysian palm oil. Meanwhile, the day session saw wheat enjoy a rare development. General Comments Overnight trade saw an uptick of trading volume with mixed re...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain prices were little changed in overnight trading even though Dalian meal and soyoil futures continued their upward trek. Trading was also more subdued with narrower ranges and more modest volumes during the day session as markets seemed to consolidate. General Comments The late...
Creating a Trend; Trade and Tax Policy
With low prices now burdening growers, researchers are calculating what tweaks can be made to extract something additional from the market. However, there are several reasons why some investors contend that it is better to create a trend than to chase one. Creating a Trend It was tough to get f...
Market Commentary
In overnight trading, soybeans continued to build on Monday’s gains with fuel provided by higher prices for Dalian’s soymeal and oil as well as another stout rally in Malaysian palm oil, which was up 43 ringgits to another four-year high. The rally of soy complex futures prices then continued i...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn is offered at $165/MT FOB for December-February, which is roughly in line with U.S. stocks on a CNF basis to the main destinations in the Mediterranean. However, a different origin becomes the cheapest from March onward for all major destinations in Africa and Asia. Milling...
Market Commentary
Expanding concerns about hot, dry weather across parts of Argentina gave the soy complex new life Sunday evening after last week’s losses, and then a developement this morning provided another shot of adrenelin. Meanwhile, corn started to surge higher on fund short covering around mid-mor...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea milling wheat market was again firm last week on slow farmer selling and exporters’ short covering. The pace of exports from Russia remains too slow to meet the projected total. At current prices, that country is losing its competitiveness to several specific origins. Milling Whea...
China; More China; Food Fallacies; Inequality
Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) told Agri-Pulse to “Show me a nation that cannot feed itself, and I'll show you a nation in chaos. I've said it before and I'll surely say it again.” And he would be wrong each time he said it. China No Substitute Some are saying that...
Ag Review: Agribusiness Margins in the Face of Uncertainty
WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Grain Industry Low prices are leading farmers to pursue cost-cutting decisions. In turn, this will pressure margins at all levels of the farm economy,...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Presidential election and the November WASDE proved to be a vicious combination that sent markets – from corn to oil to equities – into a tailspin. Having once recovered from the political shockwaves, grain markets were pounded again by a bearish WASDE report. General Comments The most...
Non-Election Topics
Americans are growing weary of political discussions and are looking forward to non-election topics. Fortunately, U.S. grain exports, La Nina weather, and the new CFTC rule provide some thought relief.Last night a local TV reporter asked a random person on the street if she could name one good...
Another USDA Report, No Surprises Likely
The November WASDE report may be overshadowed by the election results but important international production revisions are possible. Dry weather in South America and Europe...Wednesday’s USDA reports will be mostly obscured by tomorrow’s presidential election results, but the reports will be re...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The market yard price of corn in Nizamabad has dropped 11.06 percent from the start of the season to $201/MT, and the NCDEX spot price there also decreased 26.20 percent over a five-week period to $214/MT. However, prices are still not as low as they should be at peak arrivals, which is partial...
Market Commentary
Every market has been very tentative this week, and today was no exception. Trading volume was average ahead of the weekend and the U.S. presidential election next Tuesday. Corn was lower overnight in light volume and followed the soybean move higher around mid-morning today. General Comments E...
Market Commentary
The latent bullish trends that the soybean and corn markets were working to establish got blown apart today, and the technical momentum is now pointed down. January soybeans and December corn have been struggling to break through technical upside resistance levels for more than a week, and they...