FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 22 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 November 2024By Matt HerringtonThe major story behind dry bulk freight markets remains the same: slack demand causing additional weakness in rates. The downturn in rates is accelerating as markets head into the holiday season, which is usually a lull period for freig...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 4.6 months. This is a little lower than usual due to delays in wheat shipments from Russia.Iraq advises that is has sent 50 truckloads of aid to Syria, mainly wheat. The aid will be used to support...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Kenya’s Crop Choices
In yesterday’s WPI Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional analysis report, it was noted that Kenyan farmers are switching from growing maize to growing sweet potatoes. The latter being easier to grow than drought sensitive maize and netting three crops per year. But whether maize...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
More Food, and Fewer Children
Few philanthropists are as focused on hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa than Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent billions of dollars on the problem. Activists do not like his promotion of GMO’s as a solution, but they are not as focused as he is on human suffering...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Agricultural Trade with Africa
Africa’s population is on a trajectory that could double its size by 2050 to 2.5 billion, or a quarter of the global populace. The West (U.S., EU, Japan) are in a competition with the Axis (China, Russia) for influence over Africa. One way to influence is to actively trade, including in a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s trade deficit in June dropped by 5.1 percent to $2.87 billion – in dollar terms wheat imports were down by 21.5 percent while corn imports saw a reduction of 28.6 percent. Total for all imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s recent massive wheat tender did not generate the 3.8 MMT of buying that GASC had planned. Reports say that the long delivery period – to April 2025 – coupled with the requirement for 270...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s wheat production is estimated by the Iraq Wheat Board to be up by 21 percent to 6.3 MMT resulting in the second consecutive year of wheat self-sufficiency for the government. The Board adds that Iraq...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has increased its selling price of wheat, both local and imported, by about 20 percent. At the same time, the price of government wheat flour has increased by 35 percent. These pri...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s year end wheat stocks are expected to drop by 61 percent due to the wheat import ban. The ban is set to expand in October but wheat imports for the year are seen dropping by 3 MMT – a drop of...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT out of total grain production of 19.8 MMT, including rice. Iran’s total grain imports are seen as reaching 14.9 MMT. Iran’s govern...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to October in order to protect local wheat production has surprised and upset the wheat trade in Turkey and internationally. Turkey’s la...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGAO) while at the same time calling for the removal of South Africa and Nigeria from the agreement because...
El Niño Sparks Corn Demand
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead gotten worse. This year’s El Niño has helped make a bad situation worse. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Networ...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Russia is notably absent. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected with 90 percent of the vote and is now formi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized “baladi” bread for the first time in 30 years. The price will increase by 400 percent from $0.001 per piece to $0.004 per piece...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zimbabwe, Mexico, and Sweden as part of its plans to increase the number of sources for its yearly wheat requirements. According to news repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreement with the government that would guarantee the purchase of 650,000 MT of KRG wheat production. In 2023, Iraq bought 500,000 MT of KRG wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Meeting with the Cotton Hopeful
Although many small developing countries produce cotton, about five countries produce most of the fiber. China and India alone account for nearly half the global output of cotton. Four small African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali) formed the Cotton-4 or C-4 consortium many years...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received 1,000,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt may become a market for South African maize expo...
Egyptian Food Inflation
Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commodity are delayed departing for Egypt. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has a tight grip over the military and the government, but war on the b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone has re...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and wheat stocks could drop to the lowest level seen in 20 years. Severe weakness in the Egyptian pound and a lack of foreign exchange are seen as t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports that Suez Canal fees have dropped by 40 percent so far in 2024 as a result of the Red Sea difficulties near Yemen which is causing the rerouting of vessels. Actual vessel passages are down by 30 perc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Qatar has contributed $20 million to the “Grain from Ukraine” program. Egypt’s Prime Minister says that inflation will be down to 10 percent by 2025 due to the government’s economic r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Ethiopia in addition to existing members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Further expansion is expected i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at 239 percent, Turkey at 76 percent, Egypt at 74 percent, Ghana at 49 percent, and Iran at 39 percent. Egypt’s consumption of food stapl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 percent with food price inflation seen at 64.5 percent. However, inflation in expected to move higher in the coming weeks because of the Israel/...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces said to be from Yemen or Somalia. Attackers say that they are only attacking vessels with some relationship with Israel. Both Zim lines and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a recent FAO report. 2023/24 wheat imports are seen as 1.8 MMT, which is below import levels of the last two years, although the five -year ave...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,000 MT donation of wheat and grain. Bangladesh grain imports for 2023/24 are seen by the FAO as 6.1 MMT of wheat and 2.1 MMT of maize. Local p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel said that any ships damaged by the current conflict will be fully compensated by the government. There has been no reported damage of any vessel from missiles/rockets. Shipping lines have been advised to ho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of 1 MMT of wheat during 2023/24 – this in order to keep wheat reserve stock levels. Importation will be by the Trading Corporation o...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran has proposed to Russia that grain shipments can be made from Russia to third countries using “safe, alternative” Iran routes. Iranian officials say that this Russia/Iran route is yet to be used bu...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria’s wheat crop, according to the recent FAO report, will be down by 500,000 MT to 2.5 MMT due to drought which will see wheat imports increase to 9 MMT. Barley production will be the same as 2022 at 1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan reports outbreaks of Fall Armyworms on maize crops in some areas of the country. The government says that the crops are now too mature for normal pesticide sprays. Pakistan could face a shortage of up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U.S. corn. This will be the first sale of U.S. corn to Egypt in quite a few months. Egypt and Israel are the destinations for the first Ukrain...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel reportedly signed a wheat supply agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan that will guarantee continued supply for Israel. It is reported to be a “long-term” arrangement. Israel will provide bot...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and India are discussing a possible arrangement for the trade of Egyptian fertilizer for Indian wheat – an arrangement that could benefit both countries. Egypt is the world’s fifth largest export...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat harvest of 27.5 MMT this year is still about 2.6 MMT short of the country’s consumption. Some imports have been made but there is still concern that there will be wheat/wheat flour sho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC said it is ready to act as a re-export center for Russian grain if Russia establishes a logistics center in the Suez Canal region. A grain hub in the region would act as a distribution center fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s National Federation of Millers has advised that current wheat stocks will cover up to five months of cosumption and added that the current duty-free wheat imports through September will increase th...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reports it will allow the export of both corn and durum wheat this year due to the bumper crop for both grains. Exports licenses have already been issued for durum wheat with corn licenses pending. Accordin...
Farm Fuel Cost Outlook
Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term trend. From a regional perspective, Midwest distillate inventories for the week of 14 July were the highest recorded for the region s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Forafric Global has bought 90 percent of Societe Industrielle de Minoterie Du Sud which is a Moroccan soft wheat miller. This acquisition will add 300 MT per day of milling capacity to Forafric. Mo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures have increased electricity demand. Egypt does have sufficient electricity production but the reduction in fuel to the plants has caused gene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq is planning on building a rail link with Turkey. The proposed rail line would begin at FAW port in the south of Iraq, on the Persian Gulf, then run directly north to the eastern Turkish border. The line is expected to cost $1...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Agricultural Development Fund reportedly made major financing arrangements in the feed industry, animal production, and dairy sectors. Total financing is said to be $246 million. The fund auth...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel has the highest cost of living in the Middle East region, followed by Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi. Morocco has the highest cost of living in North Africa followed by Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egyp...
Weathering Drought
Moroccan grain production is highly volatile due to frequent droughts, a situation that may become more common elsewhere due to climate change. USDA/FAS reports that this will be a rebound year for Morocco as moisture conditions have improved. The government in Rabat is rolling out new assistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Eid-Al-Adha will be celebrated in Muslim countries from 27 June until 1 July. Businesses, banks, and the government will be closed for this period. Morocco will offer subsidies on up to 2.5 MMT of imported milling...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan will receive another 20,000 MT of wheat from India in a new donation to help overcome the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. India previously donated 40,000 MT of wheat. Wheat will be delivered throug...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisian President Kais Saied said that efforts must be made to insure the adequate supply of grain and feed to all areas of the country. He added that all imports of grain and fodder must be controlled by the gov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s current zero wheat import tax is expected to be extended until September rather than expiring on 31 May. Morocco’s drought driven wheat imports are up by almost 70 percent over 2021/22. The w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s President said that recent wheat shortages have been overcome but millers and bakers say they have not as yet seen wheat or flour supply improving. Imports of much needed wheat have also been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan is facing a severe infestation of Moroccan locusts in the expected biggest outbreak in 20 years. Up to 25 percent of the current wheat crop, as much as 1.2 MMT, is said to be at risk. The locusts are e...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Ministry of Agriculture said that 2023 cereals production should increase by 62 percent compared to the low drought affected crop of 2022. Total production is seen at 5.5 MMT up from 3.4 MMT. Soft...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan flour millers in Sindh Province are “alleging” that the government is not releasing wheat even after full payment has been made by millers. 500,000 bags of wheat were supposed to have been rel...
Overstating War Impacts
The Russians and the G-7 traded charges blaming each other for causing global food insecurity. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski finally framed the situation correctly by saying the war has caused market distortions. Global trade in wheat and soybeans has continued to expand. Cor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Arab world is celebrating the end of Ramadan holiday. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be closed. Egypt’s holidays are longer due to Sinai Liberation Day holiday. Egypt says it will spend $...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s grain harvest in 2023 is forecast to drop from 750,000 MT to only 250,000 MT because of drought and the restrictions put on water use. Only about 15 percent of the grain area is irrigated so rainfa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Abu Dhabi’s Al-Ain Mills has signed an agreement with the government of Sharjah to mill the countries local wheat production. The flour that will be produced is said to be of the “highest standard&rdqu...
OPEC Cuts Quotas to Match Actual Production and Establish Price Floor
On Sunday, OPEC + announced voluntary cuts in oil production that will amount to 1.657 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, and Kazakhstan are all planning on production cutbacks starting in May and are planned for the remainder of 20...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
Borrowing Food Production Capacity
There are many food insecure countries, According to the Economist’s Global Food Security Index most reside in Africa, but there are others around the world. Measures things like availability, affordability, quality and safety, Jordan scores 47th out of 113 countries ranked. The country m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, will begin on 23 March in the region. Businesses, banks, and governments will be working shorter hours during the month. Turkish representatives in Geneva say that Russia will...
Africa Maize Yield Outlook
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest average corn yield of any region in the world. Its corn yield is 77 percent lower than that achieved in North America. But the UN Food & Agriculture Organization predicts that SSA will experience a higher percentage increase in corn yields by 2031 of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s soybean import estimates have been dropped from 2.5 MMT to just 1.2 MMT due to the GMO ban. However, with rapidly increasing poultry prices there is some hope that the government will lift the GMO...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to have to devalue its currency again according to Societe Generale bank. It says that by the end of the next quarter about 10 percent will have to be devalued in order to meet foreign exchange p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Oman Flour Mills (OFM) is reportedly about to receive the first direct farmer shipment of wheat from Australia. OFM is a regular buyer of OZ wheat, normally buying from an international grain company, but this new...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Punjab province is reportedly stopping permanently the wheat quota for flour mills that are on strike. Punjab provides 26,000 MT of wheat daily for subsidized production and says that striking mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia received a 60,000 MT barley shipment from Australia financed by a joint arrangement between Salic Group and Mansour Al-Mosaid Company and the Saudi Agricultural Development Fund. This is being done un...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian government officials said the “dollar crisis” has now been corrected and that foreign payments are being made by banks and delayed goods are clearing customs. Extra efforts have been made to r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish authorities have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to ban the importation of any grain or coproduct containing GMO trait MON810 while allowing the importation if the trait is the stacked GMO trait of MON8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reduced its import duty on oilseeds, including soybeans, from 9 to 1 percent in order to control rising prices in Iran. Soybean imports are expected to be about 2.35 MMT for 2022/23. India expects that its 20...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Malta’s Kordin Grain Terminal, in Valetta port, had a minor silo fire this week that was said to be due to fermenting alfalfa causing internal combustion. Losses were limited to about 1,000 MT. Kordin has be...
Holes in Food Security
The population in Africa is projected to nearly double from 1.34 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050. By contrast, the rest of the world’s population over that same period is expected to increase by less than 10 percent. Over that period, Sub-Saharan Africa will go from 16.7 percent of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION On 31 December, Turkey’s official Gazette published details of the approval of MON810 maize for a new period of 10 years for importation for feed use. Turkey’s government had “reimposed” a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received a $3 billion 46-month loan from the IMF with extra support of $14 billion expected from other sources. The change to a flexible exchange rate system is expected to “preserve microeconomic...
Remodeling U.S.-Africa Relationship
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MENA region grain importers have been assured by Ukraine shippers that the recent attacks on power systems in Odessa will not affect port operations as grain facilities have alternate energy supplies. Turkey and I...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan recently received very good rainfalls which the Ag Ministry says brought long awaited relief to farmers. Pastures should also be much better this year, which will be very beneficial to the dairy industry. T...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka will benefit from a program by Thailand and the United Nations to supply quality maize seed to help with increasing food security – the maize will be used in the livestock industry when harvested...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s COP27 conference has set a new “123 Pledge” program that is directed at reducing food waste in production, handling, retail and consumer levels. Fourteen percent of food is said to be los...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA Region grain importers from the Black Sea are watching with interest the current meetings between the UN and Russia on the extension of the “grain corridor”. The current agreement expires 19 Novemb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran said it is willing to make land available in Bandar Abbas port for a Kazakh grain transshipment facility. The facility is expected to be built using private sector investments from Kazakhstan. Iran is expecte...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region grain importers are going to suffer greatly if the Russian action ending the Ukraine grain export corridor continues. Ukraine says that the end to the corridor will affect 218 ships --- 95 that are wait...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s planting of wheat may be delayed by at least a month in a large area of the country due to the slow recovery of farmlands from the recent flooding. Estimates say that the flooding could have cause...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
This is an abbreviated report due to analysts’ travel obligations. Regional Food Crisis A trifecta of problems including soaring interest rates, high commodity prices and a depreciating national currencies are threatening food security across the Middle East/Africa region. Many of the cou...
Future Iranian Opportunity
Iran is a major importer of grains and vegetable oil, but its estrangement is getting worse. Now the EU has joined the U.S. in imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The watershed was the death last month of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died in the custody of Tehran’s moralit...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish officials said they want the Ukraine/Russia grain corridor agreement to be extended when it expires in November and that they are in discussions with both Russia and Ukraine. Jordan’s government anno...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION African grain importers from Russia may find that business is easier as Russia is looking at the possibility of providing trade financing to buyers through EXIM BANK and the Russian export credit agency. While the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran and Pakistan are expected to benefit from Azerbaijan lifting its export ban on grains. Talks with both countries are planned for next week to discuss shipping logistics and additional export opportunities. Pa...
Rain More Important than Area
Iraq intends to expand the area planted to wheat by 20 percent, but production may not follow. But like much of the Middle East, wheat output is highly dependent on rainfall. Production in Iraq has been far more volatile than the area under sowing. Climate change may worsen crop output. W...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt announced that Suez Canal fees for bulk vessels will be increased by 10 percent on 1 January 2023. Other vessels, except tourist vessels, will be increased by 15 percent. Egypt’s GASC advised wheat sup...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s government increased the purchase price of local wheat, to the equivalent of $430 MT. The government says that more than 7 MMT of local wheat has been purchased from farmers. The Iran Ag Ministry says...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh semi-official reports say that a wheat import agreement for 500,000 MT is about to be signed with Russia, some reports say the agreement is for 350,000 MT. The government-to-government business is to be...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Libya imports about 90 percent of its grain needs every year with total imports for 2022/23 forecasted by the FAO to be at 3.2 MMT, about the same as last year. More than 50 percent of Libya’s imports of whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon officially rejected the first shipment of 26,000 MT of corn from the Ukraine on the M/V Razoni and further reports advise that the vessel will now discharge in Syria after a stop in Turkey. Ukraine will no...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region barley buyers are looking more to French barley as supplies from the Black Sea are not available. Saudi Arabia and Iran are major barley buyers in France as are Tunisia and several African nations. Most...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Middle Eastern and African buyers of Black Sea grains are looking with anticipation to the freeing up of grain/oilseed shipments from the Ukraine and Russia, as was agreed and signed last week. However, experts sa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s government will be selling 120,000 MT of wheat to the World Food Program (WFP) for the WFP’s Afghanistan relief program. The wheat supplied is expected to be imported wheat milled in Pakista...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Yemen is expected to be dependent on India for its wheat supply for 2022 due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. India is reported to have shipped 250,000 MT of wheat to Yemen since the invasion. Turkey is going...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey has been asked by the Ukraine to seize a vessel from Russia with 7,000 MT of Ukraine wheat that is going to a Turkish port. Reports are the vessel has been “detained” by Turkish authorities. The...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is hoping to increase the 2023 planted area by 1 million acres. In order to do this, it will have to reclaim desert lands and use existing underground water supplies. Egypt also plans to improve the seed sto...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy Products will be investing $107 million in its poultry operations for expansion of grandparent stock and in seafood processing. In 2021 the company said that it would be doubling...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reports that its cereals imports for 2022/23 will drop by 25 percent due to a nearly 5 MMT increase in local cereals production. Wheat production is expected to increase by 4 MMT to 130 MMT with wheat imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reportedly rejected a shipment of 57,000 MT of Indian durum wheat after failing to meet phytosanitary requirements. The wheat is being returned to India. Indian exporters and buyers of Indian wheat are now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian officials have requested exemption from India’s recent export ban on wheat. Talks at the “highest level” are said to be taking place. For its part, India has said that only exports again...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has begun to harvest trial plantings of GMO wheat that is expected to increase crop yields by 33 percent. The wheat is said to be drought resistant and able to be grown in areas with high saline levels in th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Much of the region is closed until 5 May due to post Ramadan Muslim holidays for Eid El Fitr. Iraq’s official projection for the wheat crop for 2022 is 2.5-3 MMT which the government says will cover all need...
Hunger by Policy
U.S. officials are headed to Kenya to resume free trade negotiations and while there they ought to talk about the source of Nairobi’s food insecurity this year – its ban on GMO maize. Sub-Saharan corn and wheat production have been generally outpacing the region’s growing popu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The end of Ramadan means that the Middle East and North Africa will be on holiday from 30 April until about 5 May with some variation in dates depending on the country. Egypt will be closed for Eid El Fitr, follow...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reportedly considering buying wheat directly from suppliers without international tenders. Offers directly from suppliers are expected to be consider for purchase and price negotiation by the...
Bipolar World; GMO Hobgoblins
Bipolar World Countries were already divided before Russia’s war on Ukraine, but the conflict has brought it into plain sight. The WTO has been unable to reach any new agreements for decades. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala acknowledged this week that the upcoming 12th ministerial co...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt soybean/soymeal forecasts by USDA FAS show an increase in soybean imports for local crushing. Much of the increase is due to increased demand for soyoil for the retail sector and higher soymeal demand from a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Israel, and South Africa are target countries in the region for India’s wheat export program in 2022. In 2021 the main region importers of Indian wheat were Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and UA...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s National Grain Co intends to build a new grain terminal in Yanbu port with a capacity of 96,000 MT of silo storage and 60,000 MT of flat storage. The terminal is to have 800 MT per hour discha...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has announced that Abu Dhabi Ports Group will build a multipurpose shipping terminal in Ain Sokhna Port on the west side of the Gulf of Suez. Ain Sokhna will shortly be connected by a rail network to the Med...
Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft; Energy Outlook; Africa Rising
Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft Russian aggression in eastern Europe has turned EU policy on its head and the latest evidence is German Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s suggestion over the weekend that Brussels and Washington should reinitiate negotiations over the Transatlantic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan is expected to begin on 2 April and end 1 May with the holiday of Eid Al Fitr beginning on 2 May. Egypt reports that 189,000 MT of wheat are enroute from the Black Sea with no delays – 63,000 MT each...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ukraine grain shipments may still be possible even with the main export ports closed as the Ukraine railway operator has said grain can be delivered by rail to the borders with Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Pola...
Egyptian Wheat Costs
The price of wheat went limit-up yet again today, which is problematic for poor countries importing the food stuff. It is particularly painful for Egypt since it is the largest wheat importer in the world, and the poorest at that level of importation. The cost of wheat is now 35 percent greater...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish officials have said that the Ukraine/Russia situation will not result in grain shortages in the country. Seventy-eight percent of Turkey’s grain imports come from Russia and Ukraine but both stocks a...
Oilseed Highlights: Disruptions, Records, Opportunities
War Disruption Focusing first on the Bear in the Ukrainian living room, palm and soyoil prices have hit record levels on concern that sunflower seed may lose availability. With Ukraine’s Black Sea port facilities shut down and one grain ship hit by a missile, there could be increased pres...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s soft wheat subsidies are expected to reach $410 million in 2022, more than triple normal levels. This is due to the very poor 2022, drought related, wheat crop and the high level of expensive impor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region grain importers are very concerned over shipments of grain/oilseeds from the Black Sea after press reports that export dry bulk shipment volume from the Black Sea has dropped by about 44 percent in Febr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt is very concerned that the problems between Russia and Ukraine will push up world wheat prices and limit availability. In 2021, 85 percent of Egypt’s 12.9 MMT of wheat imports came from Russia and the Ukraine. Egypt is ex...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Afghanistan’s agriculture will benefit from a $65 million donation by the Asian Development Bank to the United Nations FAO to raise Afghanistan’s local food production, including wheat cultivation, livestock feed producti...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million. The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA MEA region grain importers will face lower Russian export quotas in 2022 – 8 MMT of wheat and a total of 3 MMT for barley, corn, and rye. The initial quota period is from 15 February to 30 June and is a decrease over the origin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria is facing a water crisis in the northeast that it blames on Turkey. Dams on the Euphrates River in Turkey have reduced the river's flow while Turkish control on Syrian water stations is said to have limited water supplies for a...
Africa Already Green
Rarely Due to War
Syria’s wheat production collapsed this year, but it was not due to the nearly decade-long civil war. The FAO cites three causes: 1) drought; 2) high input costs; and 3) economic crisis. Indeed, despite massive destruction and poverty due to the war, Syria 2019 wheat crop was the largest...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Agricultural Bank is putting up EGP 4 billion (about U.S. $254 million) “to mitigate the negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic”. All accounts with debts and defaults up to EGP 100,000 (U.S. $6,400) in...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that current wheat reserves will cover consumption for 5.3 months. Egypt’s Alexandria port experienced severe weather this week which resulted in container losses overboard on at least one vessel and a number of d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan has agreed that the transportation of 50,000 MT wheat from India to Afghanistan, via Pakistan, can be done using Afghan trucks. India had wanted to use Indian trucks and refused to agree to Pakistan trucks. Hopefully Afghan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan and India are having difficulty in agreeing on the method to move Indian wheat to Afghanistan through Pakistan. While the shipment of 50,000 MT has been approved by Pakistan, it is insisting on the use of Pakistan trucks and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Bangladesh reports that the lowest offer under its 50,000 MT wheat tender is $409.77 MT CNF Liner Out with the other three offers ranging from $431.83 to 441.00. No purchase has been finalized yet. Iran is expected to leave the subsi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iraq says it intends to tender for 500,000 MT of wheat in December 2021 or early 2022. The tender will cover all wheat needs until the next harvest in May 2022. Pakistan may have given approval to the transport of Indian wheat, by ro...
Oilseed Highlights: China Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Yield; Egypt Tender; NOPA Crush
China’s Soybean Crush Increasing as Power Rationing Ends For the last several weeks many Chinese soybean processors were forced to shut down because of government decrees rationing electrical power. However, the power rationing has now ended, and the processors have been able to operate t...
No N, No GMO, No Food
Some environmentalists were aghast at the COP26 meeting when mega-billionaire and serial do-gooder Bill Gates described nitrogen fertilizer as “magical” and opined that, “to grow crops, you want tons of nitrogen.” They called nitrogen fertilizer a major cause of greenhou...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Bangladesh poultry industry leaders have asked the government to help their suffering industry by reducing the tax on animal feed manufacturers from 15 percent to 5 percent and they want to exempt the taxes on feed raw materials for...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Cyprus' government has set aside €9 million for the support of animal farmers who are suffering due to very high grain and feed prices. High prices are related to both high international prices and supply difficulties caused by...
Market Commentary: Defying the Calls
The market opened as called but the grains could not be held down for long. By mid-session corn and wheat were back held aloft by trusting bulls despite an underwhelming Export Sales report and several other factors urging caution. These include continued lack of Chinese demand, expectations of...
Volatility in Pistachios
The U.S. first displaced Iran as the world’s leading producer of pistachios in 2012 and for the past four years it has not even been a contest. Iran’s downfall was in part U.S. trade sanctions, but also its failure to manage water resources and disease problems properly. While the p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran is reported to be the largest buyer of grain from Russia in the first three months of MY 2021/22. Shipments to Iran are: 3.7 MMT – 3.1 MMT of wheat, 392,000 MT of barley and 215,000 MT of corn. Egypt’s grain cr...
Sorghum Dominance
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only a small fraction of globally traded milo. Production in the region has been relatively stable. By contrast, world trade in sorghum has been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhara Holdings announced plans to build five animal feed facilities in Eastern Europe (Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria). The company’s first venture is a 120,000 MT per year feed mill in Serbia with 20,000 MT...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The World Bank estimates that MENA region economies have been affected by about $200 billion in costs due to COVID-19. The region’s GDP shrunk by 3.8 percent in 2020. However, things have improved for 2021 with the MENA GDP now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran officials say 2021/22 wheat imports are expected to reach 8 MMT – three times last year’s level. Iran’s wheat consumption is about 12.5 MMT while local production is only 4.5 MMT. Russia is expected to be the m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan sees a wheat cargo of 59,700 MT arrive with another 58,000 MT to arrive this week. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) is “under directives” to import 2.3MMT of wheat this year and has imported 338,000 MT p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Morocco is forecast by USDA-FAS to be importing about 4.5 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 – down from 5.4 MMT in 2020/21. The drop is due to the greatly increased wheat production, up from last year’s drought affected production...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkey has stopped the import tax on wheat (45 percent), barley (35 percent), and corn (25 percent) until 31 December due to the lower local production this year. The import tax of 19.3 percent on sorghum was also stopped. Turkey&rsq...
Making Big Better; Papering Over/Jawboning; Policy; Powerfully Wrong
Making Big Better The Biden Administration claims that big is bad and that it wants to elevate competition, including by funneling cash to small meat processors. President Biden also wants to compel 80 million unvaccinated Americans to receive a jab and has ordered all companies with 100 or mor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan wheat prices are increasing, especially in the Punjab, which has caused the Pakistan Flour Mills Association to suggest that the government should release some “official” stocks to help control prices. Wheat supp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s government says it will have about 530,000 MT of certified wheat seeds available for CY 2021/22 - up from 513,000 MT last year. The government is also working to control the recent increases in fertilizer prices. The...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria’s government has decided to block the import of many products in order to conserve foreign currency reserves for the purchase of imported wheat. The import suspension list covers 20 items and is to be in place for six mon...
Taliban Challenge
Analysts are noting that Afghanistan is not the same country today that it was when the Taliban last ruled the nation during 1996 – 2001. Back then there was no electricity, let alone cell phones and televisions. This is even more true when it comes to some of the essentials of life such...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Afghanistan’s takeover by the Taliban could slow the development work on Iran’s Chabahar port which has been a cooperative project of Iran, India, and Afghanistan. Experts have commented that the Taliban would be more lik...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s bread price needs to increase according to President Sisi since the price has been fixed since 1977. The Ministry of Supply is going to analyse the situation and report to the cabinet. In years past, even the rumour of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA 4 August is the one-year anniversary of the fertilizer explosion in Beirut port that killed 217 people and injured at least 7,000 – the port was destroyed along with the grain silos. One year on, critics say not much has improv...
Citrus Dynamics
While the U.S. remains a major producer of citrus fruit, it is also a major consumer of the products and thus is increasingly dependent on imports. Over the past eight years, imports of citrus have increased 120 percent as a share of total consumption and now comprise nearly a fifth of all citr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid holidays have limited business activity in the past week in the MENA region – all will be back to normal this week. Pakistan’s wheat supply will be monitored by the Pakistan Flour Millers Association (PFMA) to insure...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedly been signed. The sale was announced in April 2021 but details that needed sorting out delayed the signing until last week. The total selli...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid Holidays Muslim countries in the region will be closed for the Eid Al Adha religious celebrations from 18-22 July in most countries. Egypt Project Funding Egypt has announced that it has received international financing in the am...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Moroccan Government has increased its estimate of the grain crops as a result of very good growing weather. It expects that the total wheat and barley crop will reach 9.8 MMT which is 26 percent higher than last year. Common whea...
Beans Make Meat
The USDA/FAS attaché in Lagos says that Nigerian soybean production and consumption is back on the rise. Soybean consumption will rise 38 percent in 2021/22 and production is up 43 percent compared to the estimate for 2020/21. Based on historical demand, this likely means that the countr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Algeria is expected to receive a shipment of 28,000 MT of Russian wheat – the first in at least four years. Bangladesh reportedly signed a government-to-government arrangement with Russia for the supply of 200,000 MT of wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee has approved the importation of 3 MMT of wheat for strategic stocks. Tenders will be issued by the Trading Corporation of Pakistan with importation by PASSCO, the government storage ag...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA According to recent reports, India will export about 400,000 MT of corn in June and July with some of the exports going to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and the rest to Asian destinations. For the first time in several years, Indian corn...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Tunisia’s government expects the grain crop this year will be 1.07 MMT of durum wheat, 0.16 MMT of soft wheat, and 0.40 MMT of barley. The overall total is up by 7 percent on last year. The U.S. Grains Council has been working...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Grain importers in the region were very interested in Russia’s announcement of its new export taxes. From 2 June, wheat will be taxed at $28.10 MT which is $32.59 MT less than the current tax. Barley exports will be taxed at $3...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The owners of the container ship that blocked the Suez Canal – Ever Given – are claiming that the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) is at fault for allowing the vessel to enter the canal during very bad weather and extremely hig...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Egypt, the Sues Canal Authority has announced plans to deepen and widen the southern stretch of the canal. The section between Suez City and Great Bitter Lake will be widened by 130 feet and deepened from 66 feet to 72 feet. Bang...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Muslin holy month of Ramadan ends this week and is followed by the Eid al Fitr celebrations (the celebration of breaking the fast) which will be for one to four days depending on the country. Very soon everyone will be back to no...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said it will begin selling its grain silos during 2021. SAGO has 3.3 MMT of grain storage but there has been no confirmation on how much may be offered for sale. Aswan Shipping of Qatar found that one...
GMO Battle Ahead; GMO Barrier to Trade
GMO Battle Ahead The future of farming, which is to say producing enough food under the duress of climate change and with less burden on the environment will require more rapid genetic changes to plants. This requires embracing new breeding techniques and that is well understood by some EU poli...
Not on My Turf
In 1968, the U.S. had 29 percent of the global market for wheat flour and Turkey had a 0.004 percent share. By 2019, The U.S. share was down to 3.4 percent and Turkey dominated the market with a 41.4 percent share. Turkey achieved this shift despite having a relatively uncompetitive wheat produ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria is reported to have covered most of its wheat needs into 2022 through arrangements with Russia. Shipments of wheat are expected to continue from Russia to Syria through the end of June. There was a comment in the Russian press that w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s government has increased the wheat demand estimates for 2021 by 2 MMT to 29.5 MMT/yr. If this revised estimate is correct, it will probably mean another wheat crisis for the country with wheat imports of as much as 3...
What Could Go Wrong?
The unclassified portion of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s latest “Global Trends” report is pollyannish next to what wargamers are theorizing. The report categorizes risks into four categories: demographics, the environment, economics, and technology. On agriculture,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Muslim month Ramadan, a period of fasting, prayer, reflection and family time, begins today and ends 12 May. Business in Muslim countries will be a little more difficult due to changes in government and office working hours durin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA After the problem with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the Egyptian government is said to be looking at the possibility of expanding the canal. There has also been some talk of a new canal from the Gulf of Aqaba, through Israel, to...
Face of Lobbying Changes; African Opportunity
Face of Lobbying Changes WTO members led by India and South Africa are pushing for a waiver from Intellectual Property (IP) protections for any goods related to COVID-19. Specifically, they want to freely replicate the vaccines that have been developed by private companies like Pfizer, Mo...
Ag Review - March 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue examines the oilseeds, produce and organic food markets, agriculture policy under the Biden Administration, as well as analysis from China, the Middle East, and Africa. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There hasn’t been this much news coverage of the Suez Canal since the crisis in 1956. Happily, the worst of the problem seems to be over with the grounded vessel now cleared and only the significant back-up of vessels to be dea...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Grain and feed ingredient importers in Turkey will find that import prices have increased considerably after a drop of about 14 percent in the value of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar. Some experts are saying that the drop co...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The latest FAO report on Yemen shows that the 2020 grain harvest is down by about 5 percent at 365,000 MT and only covers less than 20 percent of the country's grain needs. Imports for 2021 are expected to be at 4.3 MMT: 3.2 MMT of w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Afghanistan officials say the country may need to import as much as 3 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 due to expected very low rainfall levels. According to some reports the rainfall will be down by 30 percent which could reduce local wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Wheat farmers in parts of Pakistan are complaining that government set wheat prices are going to lead to greatly increased smuggling and shortages of wheat supplies in some areas. There is a lot of confusion about prices with areas l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Karachi port says that it has handled 2.5 MMT of imported wheat in the last four months. Wheat imports were mainly from Ukraine, Russia, and Germany. 200,000 MT of wheat has been discharged in February so far with another...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Regional buyers/importers of wheat continue to watch the Russia situation very closely. As can be seen by the Russia wheat export numbers further down in this report, Russia is a very significant wheat supplier to the Middle East and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Sri Lanka has decided to lease underutilized land to investors for one year in the expectation of producing 250,000 MT of additional maize for animal feed use. The land will only be made available to local investors. In 2020 Sri Lank...
Sustainability Standards Setting; Addressing China
Sustainability Standards Setting There has been concern that addressing climate change and pursuing sustainability becomes a conduit for protectionism. Already, proponents for Africa are asking for recognition of the realities of agriculture on the Continent and requesting policy space. Others...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Cosco Shipping Ports bought a 40 percent interest in privately owned Red Sea Gateway Terminal that operates its own container terminal in Saudi’s Jeddah Port. The terminal handles...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy has seen its last quarter of 2020 sales drop by 46 percent but profits for the period were up by 7 percent. Profit growth was due mainly to increased margin on export business to Egypt, Jordan and o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that the revenues from the Suez Canal are down by about 3 percent in 2020 to $5.61 billion. The government feels that 2021 revenues will be about the same level unless there are further COVID-19 related shipping problem...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Reports in Nigeria say that the backlog for vessel discharge can be as long as one month and that the cost of moving a container from the port into Nigeria can be as high as $4,000 per container. Dozens of ships are waiting for disch...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iraq has devalued its currency by 20 percent, scrapping their old “official” exchange rate. Iraq’s financial situation has become very difficult due to the drop in prices for crude oil and oil products. Iraq does im...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Bangladesh, the “advanced income tax” on wheat imports has been lifted due to importers declaring much of their wheat as “duty-free” durum wheat. The tax had been 5 percent on ordinary wheat but nothing on...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Agriculture Ministry says that about 3.63 million acres (3.5 million feddans) will be planted in wheat in 2020 – planting began in mid-November with the harvest starting in April. This forecast by the Ministry is...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA An electrical fire at the main grain silo in Tartous Syria has meant that 35,000 MT of wheat had to be moved to other storage. The wheat was not damaged by the fire but there was some damage to the silos – total damage to the s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA It is reported in Egypt that the government cabinet supports a plan to grant tariff exemption to grain importers for the 14 percent freight VAT charge. The freight VAT, based on estimated freight costs, has created serious cost premiums for export fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Update MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s state owned ADQ (formerly Abu Dhabi Development Holdings) has purchased a 45 percent stake in Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC). The actual purchase price has not been disclosed. LDC has 18,000 employees and 2019 turnover...
Perpetuating Dependence; 2021 Agenda
Perpetuating Dependence Members of the African Union want the EU to subsidize Africa’s capacity for producing value-added goods, and then they want Europe to import the resulting products. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is saying that Europe could concede better preferential access for g...
Sudan Overweight in Livestock
Sudanese officials have reportedly spoken to U.S. officials about Khartoum’s aspirations to both join the WTO, and export agricultural products to America like livestock products. The World Bank is also pushing Sudan to emphasize its food and livestock exports in the wake of collapsed pet...
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Lebanon officials have said that the Beirut port silos will be demolished due to the extensive damage caused by the recent explosion in the port. The silos contained about 45,000 MT of grain at the time of the explosion and none of t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkey has protested to the WTO about the Philippines extending its antidumping duties on Turkish flour. The Philippines intends to extend the duty by three years. It is interesting to note that, even with the antidumping duty, Turke...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA An atlas of Global Surface Water has just been published which shows the changes in surface water supply in the last 35 years – more than 4 million satellite images were analyzed along with data from the Google Earth platform...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Reports in Nigeria say that some imported maize has arrived but that the moisture content is too high for immediate use in poultry feed. A total of 262,000 MT of maize was allowed to be imported and has arrived. Syria’s Economy Minis...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Consumer Price Index for “urban consumers” is said to have increased 3.8 percent in August with the year to date increase at 107.5 percent. In the past month meat and poultry prices have moved lower while cereals...
Wheat-Rice Substitution
In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. This is true, but it can also be said that traditional wheat consumers eat more rice when given access to it. Southeast Asian countries l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Jordan reports wheat stocks on hand of 1.35 MMT – enough, they say, to cover all requirements for 17 months. Annual consumption of wheat in Jordan is about 880,000 MT but Jordan only produces about 25,000 MT of wheat per year...
When Price is a Poor Indicator
Few markets are as distorted as those involving agriculture. Governments typically impose higher tariffs on food to support domestic production even when it is at the expense of consumer welfare. Some governments will even starve their own people during wars or due to geopolitical objectives. A...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There is a great deal of concern in North Africa about the effect that the second wave of COVID-19 will have on the still limited tourist business. Tourist travel had started to recover when lockdowns were lifted and tourist places i...
Wine Sovereignty; Pick Your Poison
Wine Sovereignty In a three-page joint declaration, fifteen states want flexibility to expand their production and self-sufficiency in wine, beer, and cheese through coupled support programs. They urged that there should be no restrictions and want “flexibilities… [and] not be requ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Algeria’s change in wheat specifications for bug damage should allow Black Sea exporters to apply to be certified suppliers to Algeria. The change in bug damage – up from 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent only affects 12.5 perce...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will trade wheat, vegetable oils, rice, and sugar. Invested capital will be close to $6 million. Delivery points will be set at specific governmen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan reports that the second 65,000 MT shipment of wheat has arrived from the Ukraine and another shipment of 69,000 MT is expected this week. These wheat imports are for the private sector. Inspection and clearance has been give...
Poor Advice for the Poor; Communism Kills COVID
Poor Advice for the Poor Former South African trade minister Rob Davies had some advice for developing countries that reflects the WTO’s leaderless, rudderless future. While correctly attacking the nativist policy of the Trump Administration, Davies doubled down on the nativist trade poli...
Notable Changes in U.S. Agricultural Trade
In the year of COVID, it is difficult to assign precise reasons for changes in trade flows but following are some observations about U.S. agricultural trade in the year to date: U.S. exports to India have taken the largest fall, but Bangladesh next door has seen the largest increase.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Competition Committee (CCP) has said that the government should reduce its role in the wheat sector and abandon its minimum support price fixing regime – this action should lead to an “increase in agricul...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The seventh cargo of wheat from India to Afghanistan has arrived in Iran’s Chabahar port for onward transport to Afghanistan – 8,800 MT were received in 352 containers. To date about 43,000 MT of the 75,000 MT of wheat donated...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA A group of Pakistan flour mills reportedly booked 60,000 MT of Black Sea wheat for September shipment at $227 MT CNF. Areas of Pakistan that have been under attack from desert locusts are now said to be seeing outbreaks of fall armyw...
Trade Finance Hole; Trade Policy Shift
Trade Finance Hole The U.S. Export-Import Bank votes to authorize up to $450 million in coverage to include agricultural commodities sold to Iraq. The official financing support may have become more critical as Reuters reports that commodity trade financing by banks is “drying up at a rat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA News from the Middle East and North Africa is limited this week due to the Eid al Adha holidays in the area – the holiday is normally four or five days, depending on the country. The World Bank is providing $202 million for the...
Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage
Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats. The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...
Ag Review - July 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers such topics as the recovery in cattle prices, a new strategy in the corn market, a surge in the Chinese Dalian exchange, the role of soymeal in aquaculture, the importance of China...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The recent USDA-FAS report on Saudi Arabia’s barley trade says Arasco Saudi is marketing complete feed – Wafi brand – at a price about 20 percent lower than the price of imported barley. The report adds that this low pric...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran’s government has purchased 6 MMT of local wheat on its way to a total of 11 MMT. The wheat is being bought at a government set price to help control domestic wheat prices and to build wheat safety reserves. According to the late...
Cocoa Canary
Given their inelasticity, staple agricultural commodities are a poor indicator of economic health. However, luxury food items like cocoa may be a better indicator of the world’s recovery from the coronavirus. The December contract was up about 2 percent in today’s trading but remain...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s SAGO has sold parts of two of the four flour milling operations covered by their milling privatization program. The First Milling Company was sold to Raha Al Safi consortium for $540 million and the Third Milling...
China is Officially a Presidential Campaign Issue
Both President Trump and Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden have set their rhetorical sights on China policy as the 2020 Presidential campaign heats up. The Biden campaign unveiled its latest economic blueprint, a plan to “Ensure the Future is Made in all of America by All...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt and Pakistan are working on the possibility of Egypt importing meat and dairy products. Reports say that work is being done on revising health certificates and developing veterinary protocols to make this possible. The poultry...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Pakistan, it appears likely that the government will import as much as 1.4 MMT of wheat. International wheat prices to Pakistan are expected to be as much as 25 percent higher than the current price for local wheat. The government says...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA According to the June EU MARS report, there are variable weather conditions for the cereal campaign in North Africa with the only area of concern being drought in the western and central Maghreb. For the second year in a row, Morocco...
After the Virus, Clouds of Locusts
So far 2020 has been difficult, to put it mildly. It started out on a high note with an apparent truce between the U.S. and China when the Phase One trade agreement was signed in mid-January. But it has been downhill from there. The big issue, of course, is the global coronavirus pandemic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan has lifted the ban on the interprovincial transport of wheat and has also removed the import duty on wheat. Wheat and wheat flour shortages have developed in some parts of the country and these government actions are expecte...
Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters
Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that 3.1 MMT of local wheat have been purchased by the government. The targeted purchase level of 3.6 MMT is expected to be reached. Pakistan has removed the ban on the transportation of wheat between provinces and has tempor...
Trade War Threatens WTO
Beijing is backing Amina Mohamed to become the next director-general of the WTO. China has invested heavily in Kenya and knows that an African would be more sympathetic to China retaining its “developing” country status while blocking some liberalization rules. By contrast, Washingt...
Parting Ways – The Strategy
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, west of Karachi, has received its first vessel of wheat and fertilizer that is being transshipped by truck to Afghanistan. Gwadar is a deep draft port that can handle large vessels and offers a shorter r...
Ag Review - May 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the COVID-19 impact on workers in the food sector, the interrelationship between supply/demand and exchange rates, developments in the Middle East, North Africa and China, details...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Gemcorp Commodities is reportedly supplying 200,000 MT of Russian wheat to Ethiopia with the results of a recent tender. Shipment will be of 11.5 percent protein wheat. Gemcorp supplied Ukraine and Argentina wheat to Ethiopia in 2019...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...
Faux Pas; Naturally Wrong
Faux Pas Technical level EU trade officials were meeting today to discuss how to put transatlantic trade relations back on a better course. The success of such an initiative was already in doubt but now French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has sunk the idea before it could even get past first...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Morocco has announced that the suspension of duty on common wheat will be extended beyond 15 June until the end of December 2020. With the local wheat harvest forecast to be much below normal the government wants to ensure that wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that local wheat purchases by the government are now at 1 MMT well on the way to the target of 3.6 MMT. However, local press says that purchases are actually closer to 600,000 MT. Coronavirus restrictions in Egypt do no...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Heavy rains that fell across a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural area last week slowed the arrival of trucks to export ports. The number of trucks arriving daily fell from 2,400 in the prior week week to 1,400 last week. The number of truck arrivals at southern ports was stil...
Sights on Africa; Worse than the Virus; Watershed Protection; Can’t Beat 'em, Join 'em
Sights on Africa Minxin Pei, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund says China gets blamed for practicing economic colonialism in Africa, but there have been large pitfalls for the Middle Kingdom. For one, the value of the assets in Africa that collateralized China’s loans have plung...
Oil and Food
The price of petroleum has plummeted, putting countries that are highly dependent on its export earnings into deep fiscal trouble. This should hinder their amount of foreign exchange and thus food imports beyond basic necessity. However, looking at the recent history of U.S. food exports to the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s SAGO purchased 60,000 MT of Ukraine wheat from SALIC (Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company). This is a direct purchase from a Saudi investment company overseas rather than an international tender...
Biblical Proportions
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins 24 April. Business is always more difficult during Ramadan due to shorter working hours, but this year will be even more difficult due to COVID-19 related lockdowns in many countries...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Despite the fact that farmers are still primarily focused on the soybean harvest, the corn harvest advanced 6 percent last week. The progress was larger than expected and put the total harvest at 32 percent complete. The faster harvest pace combined with clarity about movement restrictions...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Corn and wheat imports in the region could find sourcing more difficult with Romania banning exports of both for the next couple of months. Turkey is normally a buyer of Romanian corn as are most other eastern Mediterranean countries...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA: The Master of the M/V Tomini Destiny has refused to allow discharge of a bulk cargo in Bangladesh due to concerns over the added risk of COVID-19 from local stevedores. This is probably the first reported problem of this type, but it will...
Bulk Freight Rates Fall
Egypt is reportedly switching from purchasing grain FOB and then managing its own freight risks to buying C&F so that suppliers bear any higher costs in volatile markets. Freight rates have been falling and should continue to do so as the global economy goes into recession. Bulk shipping ch...
Threats to the Food System; Aid to Africa; Jumping the Shark
Threats to Food System A risk assessment of the impact of COVID19 on the U.S. food system includes the following: Only a small handful of countries have announced export bans on things like wheat and flour, items not needed in the U.S. Foods that are imported by Americans include high value p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA: Morocco has removed the import duty on soft wheat and durum wheat until 15 June. The Morocco Ag Ministry reports that soft wheat stocks will cover three months normal consumption but a sudden jump in demand related to COVID-19 will reduce...
Ag Review - March 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This month we look at the impact of the coronavirus, the remaking of our food systems, technology in agriculture, insights from China and South America and more. We also remember WPI founder Carole B...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates It might be a good idea for all people in the grain business, with an eye to COVID-19, to read section 21 of GAFTA contract #27: “Prevention of Shipment”. This section, which is included in most GAFTA contracts, helps to clarify buyer/seller situation in the case of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt has seen very unseasonal rains recently and there is concern that the local wheat crop may be damaged due to flooding in many areas. The complaints and worries about rain are not country wide as some agricultural products, like alfal...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...
Drought in Morocco
Drought in Morocco has become more frequent and the Casablanca-Settat region is experiencing a 78 percent rainfall deficit this year. Meteorologists says that drought in Morocco occurred once every ten years in the 20th century but over the past two decades it has been at five times that freque...
WASDE Wheat
USDA leaves U.S. wheat supply and demand 2019/20 in the March WASDE. The global outlook for wheat is for higher production, increased consumption and exports, and lower ending stocks. Higher production forecasts in India and Argentina more than offsetting reductions in Turkey...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo Poultry has reported a 20.7 percent drop in profits for 2019. Total sales of Cairo Poultry also dropped by about 3.8 percent. The Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile in Ethiopia is a major source of disagre...
Potential SRE Challenge Amid Oil Market Bust
Energy markets are being buffeted by a number of global events and collapsing oil prices are putting ethanol under pressure. The nearby ethanol futures contract dropped this morning below $1.20/gal, which is the record low close set in November 2018. The contract closed at $1.2229/gal. Of cours...
Oil and Agriculture
An oil war has begun between Saudi Arabia and Russia and its impacts are important for agriculture. Energy products are key inputs, affecting field work costs, fertilizer prices and ultimately marketing. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) had predicted an average oil price in 2020 of arou...
Locust in East Africa
While most of the world is narrowly focused on COVID-19, East Africa faces the same prospects for that human disease while also battling the fall army worm and the desert locust. The locust outbreak alone is said to be the worst in 25 years for East Africa and the worst in 70 years for Kenya sp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has said that wheat production for 2020 should reach about 9.5 MMT with between 3.0 and 3.5 MMT being purchased by the government. According to U.S. export inspection information, Egypt’s purchase of U.S. soybeans doub...
Competition in Africa Heats-up
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt reports holding strategic wheat reserves covering 4.7 months consumption. Officials in the Ukraine say they intend to “build a closer relationship with Egypt” for grain logistics and investments. Grain shipments...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has announced that the population of the country has just reached 100 million people. Egypt will set up its first commodity exchange by January 2021 – wheat, corn, rice and sugar are the initial commodities that will b...
African Century
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports that the only change for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates The coronavirus has hit the grain business with the Global Grain Asia conference in Singapore being postponed for at least three months. The conference is expected to be held in late June rather than early March 2020. MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has ex...
U.S. – Kenya Have Little Ag Trade
The U.S. and Kenya announced yesterday the initiation of bilateral free trade talks under the rules of the Trade Promotion Authority law. The U.S. wants it to be the first of several with African countries. Per the Legatum Institute, the African continent is the most prosperous it has ever been...
Phase One Breakdown; EU/UK Breakdown; Plant Protection Addiction; U.S. – Africa Approach
Phase One Breakdown Ukraine just sold 15 cargoes of soybeans to China and officials in Kiev say they do not expect the coronavirus to impact their grain exports to the Middle Kingdom. Yet, China has forewarned that the coronavirus may cause it to reduce ag purchases from the U.S. Further dampen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Pakistan has declared a national emergency due to the spread of desert locusts in the eastern part of the country. They say that it is the worst infestation in 20 years – one that could decimate local grain crops. The locust...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Iran remains the largest regional buyer of Indian soymeal (soybean extract). A total of 130,000 MT was shipped to MENA in the April/December 2019 crop period with just over 87,000 MT going to Iran. However, Iran’s imports ar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS The government of Pakistan has announced that 400,000 MT of wheat will be imported, duty free, to cover the existing wheat shortage and to get wheat flour prices back to a more normal level. The importation will be allowed up unti...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt says that it will establish a commodities exchange for the trading of items that will include wheat, sugar, corn and rice – both locally produced and imported. They say that it will be in place in the next 36 to 48 weeks. Several q...
Evolving Persian Diet
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have a long history, being particularly intense since 1979. Although food has not been a formal part of the sanctions imposed by Washington, their adverse impact on Iran’s economy have nonetheless impacted dietary consumption. Once a major wh...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The ports of Alexandria and Dekheila on the Mediterranean in Egypt have reopened after being closed for two days due to bad weather. Ships at berth were allowed to continue loading or discharging but no vessels were allowed to enter or leave t...
Perspectives on Oil Markets After the U.S. Airstrike
The U.S. drone strike on Major General Qassem Soleimani marked a change in U.S. policy toward Iran. For the past year or more, the Trump Administration has positioned its Iranian policy as a de-escalation of military conflict and an increase in economic sanctions, having pulled out of the Iran...
Coming Decade of Asian Growth to “Energize” Global Trade
Since the post-World War II era and the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the WTO, there has been one general rule of thumb: economic growth in developing countries drives commodity demand, be it for energy, raw materials or agriculture and fo...
Ephemeral Market Reaction
Markets reportedly reacted today to the U.S. killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani by falling in values and the price of oil rising. However, it is a classic example of a knee-jerk reaction. Middle East tensions run through the region’s history with the larger events in recent dec...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Morocco has announced that the duty on durum and soft wheat imports will be suspended from 1 January - 30 April 2020. This is being done to “ensure a regular supply of wheat and to maintain price stability”. Trade experts say that...
Ag Review - December 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the trade war impacts, oil and ethanol developments, a potential next cattle ranching frontier, farm proposals and more. ...
Oilseed Highlights - Containers; Biodiesel; China Imports
Record High Soybean Container Exports Monday’s export inspections report indicated that USDA personnel inspected 1,083,866 MT of soybeans during the week ending December 19. Included in that amount was 113,271 MT of soybeans to be exported in containers. That was an unusually large...
Awkward Trade Policy; Socialism’s Decline; Africa’s Emergence
Awkward Trade Policy President Trump’s trade war has been highly damaging to U.S. agriculture but the fruition of agreements with Japan, Mexico and Canada and especially China have undermined the criticisms by his Democratic opponents for the presidency. However, it has not prevented thei...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Iran is reported to have bought as much as 1 MMT of wheat recently with quite a bit from Russia, but also significant purchases said to be from Germany. Iran’s total wheat imports for 12 months are expected to reach about 3 MMT. Reports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Importers in the region of Argentina grains, oilseeds and derivatives should expect higher prices in coming days as the new Argentina government has increased export taxes. The tax has been changed from a flat rate per U.S. dollar value to a p...
SSA Commodity Opportunity
Europe has traditionally taken a stronger interest in its former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with China becoming aggressively involved in recent years. The U.S. has limited its view to that of foreign aid assistance, despite the fact that its own population includes the largest number of ed...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The FAO has announced a three-year program on the “Global Action for Fall Armyworm Control”. Its plan is to raise $500 million to support this program through the establishment of a Global Action Fund which is looking for internati...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. According to Australian information, about 13 percent of all farmland is foreign owned. One problem that has come to light is that there seems t...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Drought Doesn't Discriminate
Drought Doesn’t Discriminate Despite the frequent battle with drought faced by its farmers, South Africa has rejected adoption of a drought-tolerant maize claiming it is no better than conventional seed. However, there are several pertinent factors that require attention in any such analy...
Ag Review - November 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the next farm bill, the future of ag technology from artificial meat to drones, potential shifts in production to different crops, the outlook for U.S. – Chinese rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un has received a Euro 6 million loan jointly from the Industrial Bank of Turkey (TSKB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). This loan is part of a Euro 100 million loan program by the tw...
Oilseed Highlights: Egypt's Soybean Production, DDGS Exports to Australia and New Zealand
Egypt Wants to Double Soybean Production The government of Egypt has announced its plan to more than double its production of soybeans to reduce its dependence on vegoil imports. The government says the country produced 59,000 MT of soybeans in 2018/19 from 14,800 hectares. Its goal is to plant...
A Faint Light from Golden Rice
As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS It looks to be good news for grain importers as most experts in the ocean freight business are expecting dry-bulk freight rates to be steady to lower over the next year. The long expected rally in prices due to new low-sulfur requirement level...
Sorghum’s Row
Sorghum was once the darling crop to grow because it was cheaper to produce than corn and environmentally friendly since it required less water. U.S. farmers nearly tripled the amount of sorghum they grew between 2011 and 2015, but since then production of the crop has fallen by 40 percent. Lik...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS: As had been rumored in recent weeks, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan have now signed an official “memorandum of understanding” for the import of Russian and Kazakh wheat. However, according to the deputy Ag Minister the agreement will...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Wheat buyers in the MENA region will have to get used to higher prices for Russian wheat as farmers are holding back on selling wheat and Russian export prices have moved about 12 percent higher in the past few weeks. Reports in Russia say tha...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Depending on which news source you choose to believe, Iran could import 3 - 6 MMT of wheat in 2019/20. Iran is suffering from a bad year for wheat with floods in some areas and drought in others. The amount of wheat to be imported is probably...
Underconsumption Areas
Building demand becomes a central focus during times of abundant resource surpluses. Asia is the easiest due to its demographics and GDP growth but there is a renewed look at Africa. Countries like Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Tanzania and Ghana all have economies growing at 6...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil, U.S. Soy Sales, Egypt Vegoil Tender, Argentine Election
India’s Vegoil Imports to Increase by 1 MMT Per Year B.V. Mehta, the head of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), says India imports of vegoil are expected to grow by an additional 1 MMT per year over the next five years. India already is the world’s top importer of v...
Food Demand Present and Future
In recent years, a number of agricultural futurists have expressed concern about the ability of the world to increase the food supply enough to feed the world’s population in 2050. The world population currently is about 7.3 billion people, and although the rate at which population is gro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Iran has announced plans to increase the area for wheat planting by 500,000 hectares to 2.25 million hectares. The increased planting may allow the wheat crop to reach 5.2 million MT, assuming good rainfall. Iran is still expected to have to i...
Growing African Food Market
Long considered a basket case, scarred by colonialism and on permanent aid dependency, Sub-Saharan Africa is receiving more attention these days for its potential as a growth market. The World Bank predicts the region will grow faster this year than last, and so will imports of key agricultural...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The World Bank expects the Egyptian economy will grow by 5.8 percent this fiscal year which began 1 July 2019. Growth is expected to be much the same for 2020/21. Experts are very happy with the progress that Egypt has made with falling inflation, balanced bud...
S&DT Hypocrisy
The WTO operates as a democracy and it is said that democracies fail when the citizens ask for more than it can deliver. The Trump Administration goes to war with a majority of the WTO members at the next General Council meeting on 15 October. It will press its case that countries cannot concur...
Trade Policy Pickle; Africa Unshackles Science
Trade Policy Pickle The Chinese lowered expectations for any outcome from this week’s bilateral negotiations with the U.S. by taking off the table President Trump’s key demand of extracting the government’s heavy role in the economy. Some analysts are arguing that the 2020 Tru...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that the delay in discharging vessels in Khomeini Port is related to very heavy port volume. As much as 1 MMT of grain is reportedly waiting to be discharged from 20 bulk grain vessels and will be delayed for several weeks. Iran’s i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Lebanese millers have again protested strongly against the “official” rate of the U.S. dollar in the country. The rate has not changed in about 20 years with the Lebanese pound pegged at 1,507 to the U.S. dollar. With the shortage of dollars from L...
Impeachment’s Implications; Zimbabwe’s Crisis
Impeachment’s Implications U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) says that her Party now has “the facts” to initiate impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump. It is a turn of events, but it may change less than would typically be expected. The most recent example...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS As had been expected, Morocco is dropping its soft wheat import duty from 135 percent to 35 percent effective 1 October. Morocco’s harvest dropped 49 percent this year due to poor rainfall. Wheat imports will be used to rebuild the national reserves and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced that they will provide more wheat to Sudan – a total of 540,000 MT of wheat has been pledged with more than 200,000 MT shipped to date. Both countries have set up an aid package of about $3 billion for the economic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The latest FAO report on Syria forecasts an increase in the 2019 wheat crop by more than 80 percent to 2.2 MMT while barley does even better, increasing by 400 percent to 2.0 MMT. The planted area for grains was greatly increased in 2019 becau...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS After last week’s wheat tender Egypt’s GASC has booked 2.13 MMT of wheat this buying year – 935,000 MT from Russia, 660,000 MT from Romania, 475,000 MT from Ukraine and 60,000 MT from France. Egypt has announced that customs will no longer us...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt may face serious problems as climate change is raising the water level of the Mediterranean and allowing saltwater to run back into the Nile River and Delta which is making some farming areas unusable. While the effect is very serious in...
Tax on U.S. Consumers; Subsidizing China
Tax on U.S. Consumers Under the threat of even larger antidumping duties, Mexico agreed to the demand from Washington that its tomato shipments northward be priced higher and face inspections. U.S. tomato imports from Mexico will be subject to floor prices of $0.31-0.59/pound. American consumer...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the Eid Al Adha period in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region. Banks and government offices closed for several days, and news of grain matters has been very limited. With Saudi Arabia changing its standards for w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before and dropping in those that started quoting for 2019 production. Meanwhile, there was little change in other regions. The fact that harvesting...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is adjusting its wheat import requirements for implementation as of the next tender. Traders expect that a change in the bug damage limitation will allow Russia to take a large share of the Saudi wheat business, particularly since...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July-2 August 2019 Domestic price development was atypical for this time of year with increases in the European part of Russia that usually don’t occur in August. The reason for this was high demand from processors. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat (12.5 perc...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Power of Agriculture; China Unforced Error; African Hope
Power of Agriculture In the 2016 presidential campaign, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won a plurality but not a majority of Iowa Republican votes after saying he opposed the ethanol mandate or Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton said she supported “advanced bi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS A feed protein production facility is going to be established in Saudi Arabia. It is reportedly intended to produce as much as 50,000 MT of animal feed protein annually through the processing of methane gas. Construction is expected to begin i...
Reshaping Markets
The renminbi fell below 7 to the U.S. dollar this past Friday, and that raises the risk of at least two possible developments: 1) the exodus of money out of China; and 2) a declaration by Washington that Beijing is a currency manipulator. The situation adds one more variable to an already tense...
Oilseed Highlights: China Inspects Argentine Soy Crush Plants; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Egypt’s Vegoil Tender
China to Inspect Argentine Soy Crush Plants The Argentine agriculture secretary’s chief of staff has indicated a Chinese delegation will begin a visit to Argentina on 18 August. The objective of the trip, which is scheduled to last two weeks, is to inspect the soybean processing plants of...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 July 2019 Domestic prices decreased more slowly in regions where there was movement from old crop to new harvest grain and grew in areas that had already made the transition. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat (12.5 percent protein) export price dropped $1/MT to $...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s SAGO has advised that the pre-qualified flour mill bidders will finish their due diligence and present their completed offers for the government flour mills this week. It has not announced who the qualified bidders are, bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The latest USDA-FAS report on Turkey says that very dry weather could reduce the wheat and barley production in the country. Wheat production could be as much as 3.0 MMT lower to 17.8 MMT with barley production down by 600,000 MT to 7.9 MMT --...
Freight Ignores Geopolitics
Iran is seizing foreign-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is shooting down drones in the region. Analysts say that Tehran is intentionally driving up oil prices to obtain global pushback against the American sanctions that are crippling the Iranian economy. They also warn th...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Race to Fix Labor
U.S. agriculture utilized a quarter-million temporary migrant workers last year under the H-2A agricultural guest worker program, and it was still far from enough labor. The problem, say farmers, is that the program is slow and too complex. Even though most applications for H-2A labor are filed...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has advised that fuel prices will be reviewed every three months after recent increases of up to 30 percent. The subsidized fuel prices there will be based on world fuel prices as well as the value of the Egyptian pound against the USD...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices are mixed across Europe and the Black Sea today as the market continues to react to the WASDE report. French prices are slightly higher after the agency reduced its EU ending stocks forecast and remain above other regional offers, which will likely curtail export pote...
Economic Chemistry Power; Plan B; Role of Government
Economic Chemistry Power The major powers (Europe, Russia, U.S. and China) have long used their dominant economic influence to coerce other nations into compliant policies. The U.S. has added labor and environment positions to its trade pacts ever since NAFTA in 1994. In its most recent trade a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS According to the EU’s latest Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) report, drought conditions in eastern Morocco and western Algeria have adversely impacted cereal crops, but eastern Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have all had a go...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions; Deference to Israel
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions China’s position is that if a bilateral trade agreement is reached with the U.S., both sides must remove the punitive tariffs that each imposed on the other over the past year. Conversely, President Trump insists that the 25 percent duties he placed on s...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw prices mostly lower as wheat futures came under pressure from the advancing HRW harvest. Trading volume was moderate overnight as funds continue to liquidate long positions. Open interest is growing for corn and wheat, likely indicating that end users are extending coverag...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt is talking to France about 35 million Euros for the funding of small and medium agriculture organizations. The discussions were announced by the French ambassador in a speech last week. It is expected that much of the funding could go to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 June 2019 Domestic prices quoted in the South, Volga Valley and Black Soil were mainly for 2019 production, which is why they dropped dramatically. As harvesting progresses, such sharp decreases will spread to other regions. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt reports that the government has purchased 3.66 MMT of local wheat. The total is expected to increase as it will buy wheat until the end of June. The Romanian wheat cargo that had been rejected in Egypt will now be allowed to enter the co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...
Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri
Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s military capacity. His admonitions have been backed by NATO’s secretary general and major media organizations like the Financial Times. I...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
End of GMO Panic; Contrasts and Irony
End of GMO Panic When genetically modified wheat was curiously found in an Oregon field in 2013, some importers cancelled their shipments, others stepped up inspection of American wheat, and there were of course lawsuits. There were headlines in 2016 when GM wheat was found in in a field in Was...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the post-Ramadan Eid al Fitr period of religious holidays in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and all Muslim businesses were closed either for a number of days or the entire time. As a result, the amount of grai...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week as the hot, dry weather over parts of Russia did not scare it. Weather maps are showing ample soil and subsoil moisture accumulated during April and May in the southern region. High temperatures in June are common there, and the wheat is t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Aswan area is said to have the country’s first outbreak of fall armyworms, and the government is reportedly taking immediate action against this threat. The latest FAO report on Tunisia shows wheat and barley production for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few weeks. However, basis dropped slightly last week as China was not active in Argentina. A cargo was traded at 72N for July early in the week...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Reports from Syria indicate that thousands of acres of wheat have been destroyed by fire, attributed to arson by most accounts, and the crop losses are said to be valued at about $6 million. ISIS is said to have taken credit for those fires as...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of 3.6 MMT. Pakistani officials indicate that the local wheat crop will total about 24.3 MMT, down from 25.6 MMT last year, and the stocks are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The U.S. trade war has been leading the soybean market for several months, but the latest developments (for the worse) have certainly enhanced the market’s focus on it. The Chinese decided to move on Brazilian soybeans last week and secured some Argentine origin a...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Update MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that wheat crops in some areas are up 30 percent. Production is expected to total about 14 MMT in 2019, which will enable the country to remain self-sufficient into 2020. As recently as 2014, it had to import up to 35 perc...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week due to the absence of export demand for old crop as well as the bearish outlook of last Friday’s USDA reports. The USDA estimate for the Russian crop of 77 MMT is probably conservative as most Russian analysts’ numbers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria will pay about $359/MT for the wheat it purchases from farmers, up nearly $20/MT versus last year’s price. The last crop there was the smallest in 30 years, and it is expected that the country will have to import 1.5 MMT of wheat t...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Last week Argentina posted a few offers in the local market, although volume was small with the labor strike on Tuesday and Labor Day holiday on Wednesday. Farmers are willing sellers at higher prices. Harvest progress reached 59.3 percent last week, per the Buenos Aires Grai...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week due to the absence of fresh demand for old crop wheat as well as the favorable weather prospects for the first half of May. Buyers/consumers in the main destinations seem to be covered for the next two months since they are on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 April 2019 Domestic grain prices declined or remained stable in RUB expression except for milling rye prices, which rose slightly. However, they all decreased in USD expression due to weakening of the ruble. The average milling wheat export price fell to $219/MT FOB...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey says it will be a “key player in global grain” with plans to greatly expand storage/handling facilities and a long-term goal of becoming a hub for grain shipments out of the Black Sea region. It has been a major wheat flour...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week in sympathy with the EU and U.S. markets. With its export surplus almost entirely gone, Russian wheat is not competing with French or U.S. origins to the major destinations. Weather conditions in southern Russia and Ukraine co...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression due to the strengthening of the ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat sea export price fell to $222/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As of 15 April, Egypt had bought approximately 365,000 MT of local wheat against its purchase target of 3.6 MMT. Wheat buyers from Morocco and Tunisia were in the U.S. last week to closely examine its wheat infrastructure. The group visi...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market was very slow last week as it was shortened by the Easter-related holiday. It was even slower today as Monday is also a holiday in Europe with most of the freight departments, which are mainly based there, not working. A few cargoes were traded last w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 April 2019 Domestic prices fluctuated in the South and Volga Valley but mostly decreased in other regions. The average milling wheat sea export price fell to $224/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropped to $196-200/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt had rejected a cargo of French wheat due to high ergot levels, but the 63,000 MT were found to be within required standards upon retesting. As a result, the wheat will be discharged and released from Safaga port. The FAO reports that Ira...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market once again remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic prices are reportedly around $3-4/MT higher. It has exported approximately 32.5 MMT so far, which is close to the total at this date last year. The export pace is expected to slow significa...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables
USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 April 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated in RUB expression but decreased in USD expression due to the weaker ruble. The average milling wheat sea export price was unchanged at $226/MT FOB Black Sea, but purchase prices grew in RUB expression and decreased in USD ex...
More Straws in the Wind
- Today is WASDE day with USDA’s release of this month’s edition. The April WASDE is normally uneventful with South American crop production levels largely narrowed down to within a couple of MMT of the final numbers. Domestic and world demand trends have been established, and with...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 22 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 November 2024By Matt HerringtonThe major story behind dry bulk freight markets remains the same: slack demand causing additional weakness in rates. The downturn in rates is accelerating as markets head into the holiday season, which is usually a lull period for freig...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 4.6 months. This is a little lower than usual due to delays in wheat shipments from Russia.Iraq advises that is has sent 50 truckloads of aid to Syria, mainly wheat. The aid will be used to support...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Kenya’s Crop Choices
In yesterday’s WPI Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional analysis report, it was noted that Kenyan farmers are switching from growing maize to growing sweet potatoes. The latter being easier to grow than drought sensitive maize and netting three crops per year. But whether maize...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
More Food, and Fewer Children
Few philanthropists are as focused on hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa than Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent billions of dollars on the problem. Activists do not like his promotion of GMO’s as a solution, but they are not as focused as he is on human suffering...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Agricultural Trade with Africa
Africa’s population is on a trajectory that could double its size by 2050 to 2.5 billion, or a quarter of the global populace. The West (U.S., EU, Japan) are in a competition with the Axis (China, Russia) for influence over Africa. One way to influence is to actively trade, including in a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s trade deficit in June dropped by 5.1 percent to $2.87 billion – in dollar terms wheat imports were down by 21.5 percent while corn imports saw a reduction of 28.6 percent. Total for all imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s recent massive wheat tender did not generate the 3.8 MMT of buying that GASC had planned. Reports say that the long delivery period – to April 2025 – coupled with the requirement for 270...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s wheat production is estimated by the Iraq Wheat Board to be up by 21 percent to 6.3 MMT resulting in the second consecutive year of wheat self-sufficiency for the government. The Board adds that Iraq...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has increased its selling price of wheat, both local and imported, by about 20 percent. At the same time, the price of government wheat flour has increased by 35 percent. These pri...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s year end wheat stocks are expected to drop by 61 percent due to the wheat import ban. The ban is set to expand in October but wheat imports for the year are seen dropping by 3 MMT – a drop of...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT out of total grain production of 19.8 MMT, including rice. Iran’s total grain imports are seen as reaching 14.9 MMT. Iran’s govern...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to October in order to protect local wheat production has surprised and upset the wheat trade in Turkey and internationally. Turkey’s la...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGAO) while at the same time calling for the removal of South Africa and Nigeria from the agreement because...
El Niño Sparks Corn Demand
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead gotten worse. This year’s El Niño has helped make a bad situation worse. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Networ...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Russia is notably absent. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected with 90 percent of the vote and is now formi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized “baladi” bread for the first time in 30 years. The price will increase by 400 percent from $0.001 per piece to $0.004 per piece...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zimbabwe, Mexico, and Sweden as part of its plans to increase the number of sources for its yearly wheat requirements. According to news repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreement with the government that would guarantee the purchase of 650,000 MT of KRG wheat production. In 2023, Iraq bought 500,000 MT of KRG wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Meeting with the Cotton Hopeful
Although many small developing countries produce cotton, about five countries produce most of the fiber. China and India alone account for nearly half the global output of cotton. Four small African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali) formed the Cotton-4 or C-4 consortium many years...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received 1,000,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt may become a market for South African maize expo...
Egyptian Food Inflation
Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commodity are delayed departing for Egypt. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has a tight grip over the military and the government, but war on the b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone has re...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and wheat stocks could drop to the lowest level seen in 20 years. Severe weakness in the Egyptian pound and a lack of foreign exchange are seen as t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports that Suez Canal fees have dropped by 40 percent so far in 2024 as a result of the Red Sea difficulties near Yemen which is causing the rerouting of vessels. Actual vessel passages are down by 30 perc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Qatar has contributed $20 million to the “Grain from Ukraine” program. Egypt’s Prime Minister says that inflation will be down to 10 percent by 2025 due to the government’s economic r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Ethiopia in addition to existing members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Further expansion is expected i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at 239 percent, Turkey at 76 percent, Egypt at 74 percent, Ghana at 49 percent, and Iran at 39 percent. Egypt’s consumption of food stapl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 percent with food price inflation seen at 64.5 percent. However, inflation in expected to move higher in the coming weeks because of the Israel/...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces said to be from Yemen or Somalia. Attackers say that they are only attacking vessels with some relationship with Israel. Both Zim lines and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a recent FAO report. 2023/24 wheat imports are seen as 1.8 MMT, which is below import levels of the last two years, although the five -year ave...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,000 MT donation of wheat and grain. Bangladesh grain imports for 2023/24 are seen by the FAO as 6.1 MMT of wheat and 2.1 MMT of maize. Local p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel said that any ships damaged by the current conflict will be fully compensated by the government. There has been no reported damage of any vessel from missiles/rockets. Shipping lines have been advised to ho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of 1 MMT of wheat during 2023/24 – this in order to keep wheat reserve stock levels. Importation will be by the Trading Corporation o...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran has proposed to Russia that grain shipments can be made from Russia to third countries using “safe, alternative” Iran routes. Iranian officials say that this Russia/Iran route is yet to be used bu...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria’s wheat crop, according to the recent FAO report, will be down by 500,000 MT to 2.5 MMT due to drought which will see wheat imports increase to 9 MMT. Barley production will be the same as 2022 at 1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan reports outbreaks of Fall Armyworms on maize crops in some areas of the country. The government says that the crops are now too mature for normal pesticide sprays. Pakistan could face a shortage of up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U.S. corn. This will be the first sale of U.S. corn to Egypt in quite a few months. Egypt and Israel are the destinations for the first Ukrain...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel reportedly signed a wheat supply agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan that will guarantee continued supply for Israel. It is reported to be a “long-term” arrangement. Israel will provide bot...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and India are discussing a possible arrangement for the trade of Egyptian fertilizer for Indian wheat – an arrangement that could benefit both countries. Egypt is the world’s fifth largest export...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat harvest of 27.5 MMT this year is still about 2.6 MMT short of the country’s consumption. Some imports have been made but there is still concern that there will be wheat/wheat flour sho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC said it is ready to act as a re-export center for Russian grain if Russia establishes a logistics center in the Suez Canal region. A grain hub in the region would act as a distribution center fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s National Federation of Millers has advised that current wheat stocks will cover up to five months of cosumption and added that the current duty-free wheat imports through September will increase th...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reports it will allow the export of both corn and durum wheat this year due to the bumper crop for both grains. Exports licenses have already been issued for durum wheat with corn licenses pending. Accordin...
Farm Fuel Cost Outlook
Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term trend. From a regional perspective, Midwest distillate inventories for the week of 14 July were the highest recorded for the region s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Forafric Global has bought 90 percent of Societe Industrielle de Minoterie Du Sud which is a Moroccan soft wheat miller. This acquisition will add 300 MT per day of milling capacity to Forafric. Mo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures have increased electricity demand. Egypt does have sufficient electricity production but the reduction in fuel to the plants has caused gene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq is planning on building a rail link with Turkey. The proposed rail line would begin at FAW port in the south of Iraq, on the Persian Gulf, then run directly north to the eastern Turkish border. The line is expected to cost $1...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Agricultural Development Fund reportedly made major financing arrangements in the feed industry, animal production, and dairy sectors. Total financing is said to be $246 million. The fund auth...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel has the highest cost of living in the Middle East region, followed by Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi. Morocco has the highest cost of living in North Africa followed by Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egyp...
Weathering Drought
Moroccan grain production is highly volatile due to frequent droughts, a situation that may become more common elsewhere due to climate change. USDA/FAS reports that this will be a rebound year for Morocco as moisture conditions have improved. The government in Rabat is rolling out new assistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Eid-Al-Adha will be celebrated in Muslim countries from 27 June until 1 July. Businesses, banks, and the government will be closed for this period. Morocco will offer subsidies on up to 2.5 MMT of imported milling...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan will receive another 20,000 MT of wheat from India in a new donation to help overcome the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. India previously donated 40,000 MT of wheat. Wheat will be delivered throug...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisian President Kais Saied said that efforts must be made to insure the adequate supply of grain and feed to all areas of the country. He added that all imports of grain and fodder must be controlled by the gov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s current zero wheat import tax is expected to be extended until September rather than expiring on 31 May. Morocco’s drought driven wheat imports are up by almost 70 percent over 2021/22. The w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s President said that recent wheat shortages have been overcome but millers and bakers say they have not as yet seen wheat or flour supply improving. Imports of much needed wheat have also been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan is facing a severe infestation of Moroccan locusts in the expected biggest outbreak in 20 years. Up to 25 percent of the current wheat crop, as much as 1.2 MMT, is said to be at risk. The locusts are e...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Ministry of Agriculture said that 2023 cereals production should increase by 62 percent compared to the low drought affected crop of 2022. Total production is seen at 5.5 MMT up from 3.4 MMT. Soft...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan flour millers in Sindh Province are “alleging” that the government is not releasing wheat even after full payment has been made by millers. 500,000 bags of wheat were supposed to have been rel...
Overstating War Impacts
The Russians and the G-7 traded charges blaming each other for causing global food insecurity. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski finally framed the situation correctly by saying the war has caused market distortions. Global trade in wheat and soybeans has continued to expand. Cor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Arab world is celebrating the end of Ramadan holiday. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be closed. Egypt’s holidays are longer due to Sinai Liberation Day holiday. Egypt says it will spend $...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s grain harvest in 2023 is forecast to drop from 750,000 MT to only 250,000 MT because of drought and the restrictions put on water use. Only about 15 percent of the grain area is irrigated so rainfa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Abu Dhabi’s Al-Ain Mills has signed an agreement with the government of Sharjah to mill the countries local wheat production. The flour that will be produced is said to be of the “highest standard&rdqu...
OPEC Cuts Quotas to Match Actual Production and Establish Price Floor
On Sunday, OPEC + announced voluntary cuts in oil production that will amount to 1.657 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, and Kazakhstan are all planning on production cutbacks starting in May and are planned for the remainder of 20...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
Borrowing Food Production Capacity
There are many food insecure countries, According to the Economist’s Global Food Security Index most reside in Africa, but there are others around the world. Measures things like availability, affordability, quality and safety, Jordan scores 47th out of 113 countries ranked. The country m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, will begin on 23 March in the region. Businesses, banks, and governments will be working shorter hours during the month. Turkish representatives in Geneva say that Russia will...
Africa Maize Yield Outlook
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest average corn yield of any region in the world. Its corn yield is 77 percent lower than that achieved in North America. But the UN Food & Agriculture Organization predicts that SSA will experience a higher percentage increase in corn yields by 2031 of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s soybean import estimates have been dropped from 2.5 MMT to just 1.2 MMT due to the GMO ban. However, with rapidly increasing poultry prices there is some hope that the government will lift the GMO...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to have to devalue its currency again according to Societe Generale bank. It says that by the end of the next quarter about 10 percent will have to be devalued in order to meet foreign exchange p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Oman Flour Mills (OFM) is reportedly about to receive the first direct farmer shipment of wheat from Australia. OFM is a regular buyer of OZ wheat, normally buying from an international grain company, but this new...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Punjab province is reportedly stopping permanently the wheat quota for flour mills that are on strike. Punjab provides 26,000 MT of wheat daily for subsidized production and says that striking mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia received a 60,000 MT barley shipment from Australia financed by a joint arrangement between Salic Group and Mansour Al-Mosaid Company and the Saudi Agricultural Development Fund. This is being done un...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian government officials said the “dollar crisis” has now been corrected and that foreign payments are being made by banks and delayed goods are clearing customs. Extra efforts have been made to r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish authorities have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to ban the importation of any grain or coproduct containing GMO trait MON810 while allowing the importation if the trait is the stacked GMO trait of MON8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reduced its import duty on oilseeds, including soybeans, from 9 to 1 percent in order to control rising prices in Iran. Soybean imports are expected to be about 2.35 MMT for 2022/23. India expects that its 20...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Malta’s Kordin Grain Terminal, in Valetta port, had a minor silo fire this week that was said to be due to fermenting alfalfa causing internal combustion. Losses were limited to about 1,000 MT. Kordin has be...
Holes in Food Security
The population in Africa is projected to nearly double from 1.34 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050. By contrast, the rest of the world’s population over that same period is expected to increase by less than 10 percent. Over that period, Sub-Saharan Africa will go from 16.7 percent of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION On 31 December, Turkey’s official Gazette published details of the approval of MON810 maize for a new period of 10 years for importation for feed use. Turkey’s government had “reimposed” a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received a $3 billion 46-month loan from the IMF with extra support of $14 billion expected from other sources. The change to a flexible exchange rate system is expected to “preserve microeconomic...
Remodeling U.S.-Africa Relationship
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MENA region grain importers have been assured by Ukraine shippers that the recent attacks on power systems in Odessa will not affect port operations as grain facilities have alternate energy supplies. Turkey and I...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan recently received very good rainfalls which the Ag Ministry says brought long awaited relief to farmers. Pastures should also be much better this year, which will be very beneficial to the dairy industry. T...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka will benefit from a program by Thailand and the United Nations to supply quality maize seed to help with increasing food security – the maize will be used in the livestock industry when harvested...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s COP27 conference has set a new “123 Pledge” program that is directed at reducing food waste in production, handling, retail and consumer levels. Fourteen percent of food is said to be los...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA Region grain importers from the Black Sea are watching with interest the current meetings between the UN and Russia on the extension of the “grain corridor”. The current agreement expires 19 Novemb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran said it is willing to make land available in Bandar Abbas port for a Kazakh grain transshipment facility. The facility is expected to be built using private sector investments from Kazakhstan. Iran is expecte...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region grain importers are going to suffer greatly if the Russian action ending the Ukraine grain export corridor continues. Ukraine says that the end to the corridor will affect 218 ships --- 95 that are wait...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s planting of wheat may be delayed by at least a month in a large area of the country due to the slow recovery of farmlands from the recent flooding. Estimates say that the flooding could have cause...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
This is an abbreviated report due to analysts’ travel obligations. Regional Food Crisis A trifecta of problems including soaring interest rates, high commodity prices and a depreciating national currencies are threatening food security across the Middle East/Africa region. Many of the cou...
Future Iranian Opportunity
Iran is a major importer of grains and vegetable oil, but its estrangement is getting worse. Now the EU has joined the U.S. in imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The watershed was the death last month of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died in the custody of Tehran’s moralit...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish officials said they want the Ukraine/Russia grain corridor agreement to be extended when it expires in November and that they are in discussions with both Russia and Ukraine. Jordan’s government anno...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION African grain importers from Russia may find that business is easier as Russia is looking at the possibility of providing trade financing to buyers through EXIM BANK and the Russian export credit agency. While the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran and Pakistan are expected to benefit from Azerbaijan lifting its export ban on grains. Talks with both countries are planned for next week to discuss shipping logistics and additional export opportunities. Pa...
Rain More Important than Area
Iraq intends to expand the area planted to wheat by 20 percent, but production may not follow. But like much of the Middle East, wheat output is highly dependent on rainfall. Production in Iraq has been far more volatile than the area under sowing. Climate change may worsen crop output. W...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt announced that Suez Canal fees for bulk vessels will be increased by 10 percent on 1 January 2023. Other vessels, except tourist vessels, will be increased by 15 percent. Egypt’s GASC advised wheat sup...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s government increased the purchase price of local wheat, to the equivalent of $430 MT. The government says that more than 7 MMT of local wheat has been purchased from farmers. The Iran Ag Ministry says...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh semi-official reports say that a wheat import agreement for 500,000 MT is about to be signed with Russia, some reports say the agreement is for 350,000 MT. The government-to-government business is to be...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Libya imports about 90 percent of its grain needs every year with total imports for 2022/23 forecasted by the FAO to be at 3.2 MMT, about the same as last year. More than 50 percent of Libya’s imports of whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon officially rejected the first shipment of 26,000 MT of corn from the Ukraine on the M/V Razoni and further reports advise that the vessel will now discharge in Syria after a stop in Turkey. Ukraine will no...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region barley buyers are looking more to French barley as supplies from the Black Sea are not available. Saudi Arabia and Iran are major barley buyers in France as are Tunisia and several African nations. Most...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Middle Eastern and African buyers of Black Sea grains are looking with anticipation to the freeing up of grain/oilseed shipments from the Ukraine and Russia, as was agreed and signed last week. However, experts sa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s government will be selling 120,000 MT of wheat to the World Food Program (WFP) for the WFP’s Afghanistan relief program. The wheat supplied is expected to be imported wheat milled in Pakista...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Yemen is expected to be dependent on India for its wheat supply for 2022 due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. India is reported to have shipped 250,000 MT of wheat to Yemen since the invasion. Turkey is going...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey has been asked by the Ukraine to seize a vessel from Russia with 7,000 MT of Ukraine wheat that is going to a Turkish port. Reports are the vessel has been “detained” by Turkish authorities. The...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is hoping to increase the 2023 planted area by 1 million acres. In order to do this, it will have to reclaim desert lands and use existing underground water supplies. Egypt also plans to improve the seed sto...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy Products will be investing $107 million in its poultry operations for expansion of grandparent stock and in seafood processing. In 2021 the company said that it would be doubling...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reports that its cereals imports for 2022/23 will drop by 25 percent due to a nearly 5 MMT increase in local cereals production. Wheat production is expected to increase by 4 MMT to 130 MMT with wheat imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reportedly rejected a shipment of 57,000 MT of Indian durum wheat after failing to meet phytosanitary requirements. The wheat is being returned to India. Indian exporters and buyers of Indian wheat are now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian officials have requested exemption from India’s recent export ban on wheat. Talks at the “highest level” are said to be taking place. For its part, India has said that only exports again...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has begun to harvest trial plantings of GMO wheat that is expected to increase crop yields by 33 percent. The wheat is said to be drought resistant and able to be grown in areas with high saline levels in th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Much of the region is closed until 5 May due to post Ramadan Muslim holidays for Eid El Fitr. Iraq’s official projection for the wheat crop for 2022 is 2.5-3 MMT which the government says will cover all need...
Hunger by Policy
U.S. officials are headed to Kenya to resume free trade negotiations and while there they ought to talk about the source of Nairobi’s food insecurity this year – its ban on GMO maize. Sub-Saharan corn and wheat production have been generally outpacing the region’s growing popu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The end of Ramadan means that the Middle East and North Africa will be on holiday from 30 April until about 5 May with some variation in dates depending on the country. Egypt will be closed for Eid El Fitr, follow...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reportedly considering buying wheat directly from suppliers without international tenders. Offers directly from suppliers are expected to be consider for purchase and price negotiation by the...
Bipolar World; GMO Hobgoblins
Bipolar World Countries were already divided before Russia’s war on Ukraine, but the conflict has brought it into plain sight. The WTO has been unable to reach any new agreements for decades. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala acknowledged this week that the upcoming 12th ministerial co...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt soybean/soymeal forecasts by USDA FAS show an increase in soybean imports for local crushing. Much of the increase is due to increased demand for soyoil for the retail sector and higher soymeal demand from a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Israel, and South Africa are target countries in the region for India’s wheat export program in 2022. In 2021 the main region importers of Indian wheat were Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and UA...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s National Grain Co intends to build a new grain terminal in Yanbu port with a capacity of 96,000 MT of silo storage and 60,000 MT of flat storage. The terminal is to have 800 MT per hour discha...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has announced that Abu Dhabi Ports Group will build a multipurpose shipping terminal in Ain Sokhna Port on the west side of the Gulf of Suez. Ain Sokhna will shortly be connected by a rail network to the Med...
Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft; Energy Outlook; Africa Rising
Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft Russian aggression in eastern Europe has turned EU policy on its head and the latest evidence is German Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s suggestion over the weekend that Brussels and Washington should reinitiate negotiations over the Transatlantic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan is expected to begin on 2 April and end 1 May with the holiday of Eid Al Fitr beginning on 2 May. Egypt reports that 189,000 MT of wheat are enroute from the Black Sea with no delays – 63,000 MT each...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ukraine grain shipments may still be possible even with the main export ports closed as the Ukraine railway operator has said grain can be delivered by rail to the borders with Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Pola...
Egyptian Wheat Costs
The price of wheat went limit-up yet again today, which is problematic for poor countries importing the food stuff. It is particularly painful for Egypt since it is the largest wheat importer in the world, and the poorest at that level of importation. The cost of wheat is now 35 percent greater...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish officials have said that the Ukraine/Russia situation will not result in grain shortages in the country. Seventy-eight percent of Turkey’s grain imports come from Russia and Ukraine but both stocks a...
Oilseed Highlights: Disruptions, Records, Opportunities
War Disruption Focusing first on the Bear in the Ukrainian living room, palm and soyoil prices have hit record levels on concern that sunflower seed may lose availability. With Ukraine’s Black Sea port facilities shut down and one grain ship hit by a missile, there could be increased pres...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s soft wheat subsidies are expected to reach $410 million in 2022, more than triple normal levels. This is due to the very poor 2022, drought related, wheat crop and the high level of expensive impor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region grain importers are very concerned over shipments of grain/oilseeds from the Black Sea after press reports that export dry bulk shipment volume from the Black Sea has dropped by about 44 percent in Febr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt is very concerned that the problems between Russia and Ukraine will push up world wheat prices and limit availability. In 2021, 85 percent of Egypt’s 12.9 MMT of wheat imports came from Russia and the Ukraine. Egypt is ex...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Afghanistan’s agriculture will benefit from a $65 million donation by the Asian Development Bank to the United Nations FAO to raise Afghanistan’s local food production, including wheat cultivation, livestock feed producti...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from Hollands FMQ development bank. Ulusoy is one of Turkey’s largest flour millers with its business split 50/50 between local flour busi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million. The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA MEA region grain importers will face lower Russian export quotas in 2022 – 8 MMT of wheat and a total of 3 MMT for barley, corn, and rye. The initial quota period is from 15 February to 30 June and is a decrease over the origin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria is facing a water crisis in the northeast that it blames on Turkey. Dams on the Euphrates River in Turkey have reduced the river's flow while Turkish control on Syrian water stations is said to have limited water supplies for a...
Africa Already Green
Rarely Due to War
Syria’s wheat production collapsed this year, but it was not due to the nearly decade-long civil war. The FAO cites three causes: 1) drought; 2) high input costs; and 3) economic crisis. Indeed, despite massive destruction and poverty due to the war, Syria 2019 wheat crop was the largest...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Agricultural Bank is putting up EGP 4 billion (about U.S. $254 million) “to mitigate the negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic”. All accounts with debts and defaults up to EGP 100,000 (U.S. $6,400) in...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that current wheat reserves will cover consumption for 5.3 months. Egypt’s Alexandria port experienced severe weather this week which resulted in container losses overboard on at least one vessel and a number of d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan has agreed that the transportation of 50,000 MT wheat from India to Afghanistan, via Pakistan, can be done using Afghan trucks. India had wanted to use Indian trucks and refused to agree to Pakistan trucks. Hopefully Afghan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan and India are having difficulty in agreeing on the method to move Indian wheat to Afghanistan through Pakistan. While the shipment of 50,000 MT has been approved by Pakistan, it is insisting on the use of Pakistan trucks and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Bangladesh reports that the lowest offer under its 50,000 MT wheat tender is $409.77 MT CNF Liner Out with the other three offers ranging from $431.83 to 441.00. No purchase has been finalized yet. Iran is expected to leave the subsi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iraq says it intends to tender for 500,000 MT of wheat in December 2021 or early 2022. The tender will cover all wheat needs until the next harvest in May 2022. Pakistan may have given approval to the transport of Indian wheat, by ro...
Oilseed Highlights: China Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Yield; Egypt Tender; NOPA Crush
China’s Soybean Crush Increasing as Power Rationing Ends For the last several weeks many Chinese soybean processors were forced to shut down because of government decrees rationing electrical power. However, the power rationing has now ended, and the processors have been able to operate t...
No N, No GMO, No Food
Some environmentalists were aghast at the COP26 meeting when mega-billionaire and serial do-gooder Bill Gates described nitrogen fertilizer as “magical” and opined that, “to grow crops, you want tons of nitrogen.” They called nitrogen fertilizer a major cause of greenhou...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Bangladesh poultry industry leaders have asked the government to help their suffering industry by reducing the tax on animal feed manufacturers from 15 percent to 5 percent and they want to exempt the taxes on feed raw materials for...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Cyprus' government has set aside €9 million for the support of animal farmers who are suffering due to very high grain and feed prices. High prices are related to both high international prices and supply difficulties caused by...
Market Commentary: Defying the Calls
The market opened as called but the grains could not be held down for long. By mid-session corn and wheat were back held aloft by trusting bulls despite an underwhelming Export Sales report and several other factors urging caution. These include continued lack of Chinese demand, expectations of...
Volatility in Pistachios
The U.S. first displaced Iran as the world’s leading producer of pistachios in 2012 and for the past four years it has not even been a contest. Iran’s downfall was in part U.S. trade sanctions, but also its failure to manage water resources and disease problems properly. While the p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran is reported to be the largest buyer of grain from Russia in the first three months of MY 2021/22. Shipments to Iran are: 3.7 MMT – 3.1 MMT of wheat, 392,000 MT of barley and 215,000 MT of corn. Egypt’s grain cr...
Sorghum Dominance
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only a small fraction of globally traded milo. Production in the region has been relatively stable. By contrast, world trade in sorghum has been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhara Holdings announced plans to build five animal feed facilities in Eastern Europe (Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria). The company’s first venture is a 120,000 MT per year feed mill in Serbia with 20,000 MT...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The World Bank estimates that MENA region economies have been affected by about $200 billion in costs due to COVID-19. The region’s GDP shrunk by 3.8 percent in 2020. However, things have improved for 2021 with the MENA GDP now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran officials say 2021/22 wheat imports are expected to reach 8 MMT – three times last year’s level. Iran’s wheat consumption is about 12.5 MMT while local production is only 4.5 MMT. Russia is expected to be the m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan sees a wheat cargo of 59,700 MT arrive with another 58,000 MT to arrive this week. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) is “under directives” to import 2.3MMT of wheat this year and has imported 338,000 MT p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Morocco is forecast by USDA-FAS to be importing about 4.5 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 – down from 5.4 MMT in 2020/21. The drop is due to the greatly increased wheat production, up from last year’s drought affected production...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkey has stopped the import tax on wheat (45 percent), barley (35 percent), and corn (25 percent) until 31 December due to the lower local production this year. The import tax of 19.3 percent on sorghum was also stopped. Turkey&rsq...
Making Big Better; Papering Over/Jawboning; Policy; Powerfully Wrong
Making Big Better The Biden Administration claims that big is bad and that it wants to elevate competition, including by funneling cash to small meat processors. President Biden also wants to compel 80 million unvaccinated Americans to receive a jab and has ordered all companies with 100 or mor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan wheat prices are increasing, especially in the Punjab, which has caused the Pakistan Flour Mills Association to suggest that the government should release some “official” stocks to help control prices. Wheat supp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s government says it will have about 530,000 MT of certified wheat seeds available for CY 2021/22 - up from 513,000 MT last year. The government is also working to control the recent increases in fertilizer prices. The...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria’s government has decided to block the import of many products in order to conserve foreign currency reserves for the purchase of imported wheat. The import suspension list covers 20 items and is to be in place for six mon...
Taliban Challenge
Analysts are noting that Afghanistan is not the same country today that it was when the Taliban last ruled the nation during 1996 – 2001. Back then there was no electricity, let alone cell phones and televisions. This is even more true when it comes to some of the essentials of life such...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Afghanistan’s takeover by the Taliban could slow the development work on Iran’s Chabahar port which has been a cooperative project of Iran, India, and Afghanistan. Experts have commented that the Taliban would be more lik...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s bread price needs to increase according to President Sisi since the price has been fixed since 1977. The Ministry of Supply is going to analyse the situation and report to the cabinet. In years past, even the rumour of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA 4 August is the one-year anniversary of the fertilizer explosion in Beirut port that killed 217 people and injured at least 7,000 – the port was destroyed along with the grain silos. One year on, critics say not much has improv...
Citrus Dynamics
While the U.S. remains a major producer of citrus fruit, it is also a major consumer of the products and thus is increasingly dependent on imports. Over the past eight years, imports of citrus have increased 120 percent as a share of total consumption and now comprise nearly a fifth of all citr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid holidays have limited business activity in the past week in the MENA region – all will be back to normal this week. Pakistan’s wheat supply will be monitored by the Pakistan Flour Millers Association (PFMA) to insure...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedly been signed. The sale was announced in April 2021 but details that needed sorting out delayed the signing until last week. The total selli...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid Holidays Muslim countries in the region will be closed for the Eid Al Adha religious celebrations from 18-22 July in most countries. Egypt Project Funding Egypt has announced that it has received international financing in the am...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Moroccan Government has increased its estimate of the grain crops as a result of very good growing weather. It expects that the total wheat and barley crop will reach 9.8 MMT which is 26 percent higher than last year. Common whea...
Beans Make Meat
The USDA/FAS attaché in Lagos says that Nigerian soybean production and consumption is back on the rise. Soybean consumption will rise 38 percent in 2021/22 and production is up 43 percent compared to the estimate for 2020/21. Based on historical demand, this likely means that the countr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Algeria is expected to receive a shipment of 28,000 MT of Russian wheat – the first in at least four years. Bangladesh reportedly signed a government-to-government arrangement with Russia for the supply of 200,000 MT of wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee has approved the importation of 3 MMT of wheat for strategic stocks. Tenders will be issued by the Trading Corporation of Pakistan with importation by PASSCO, the government storage ag...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA According to recent reports, India will export about 400,000 MT of corn in June and July with some of the exports going to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and the rest to Asian destinations. For the first time in several years, Indian corn...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Tunisia’s government expects the grain crop this year will be 1.07 MMT of durum wheat, 0.16 MMT of soft wheat, and 0.40 MMT of barley. The overall total is up by 7 percent on last year. The U.S. Grains Council has been working...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Grain importers in the region were very interested in Russia’s announcement of its new export taxes. From 2 June, wheat will be taxed at $28.10 MT which is $32.59 MT less than the current tax. Barley exports will be taxed at $3...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The owners of the container ship that blocked the Suez Canal – Ever Given – are claiming that the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) is at fault for allowing the vessel to enter the canal during very bad weather and extremely hig...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Egypt, the Sues Canal Authority has announced plans to deepen and widen the southern stretch of the canal. The section between Suez City and Great Bitter Lake will be widened by 130 feet and deepened from 66 feet to 72 feet. Bang...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Muslin holy month of Ramadan ends this week and is followed by the Eid al Fitr celebrations (the celebration of breaking the fast) which will be for one to four days depending on the country. Very soon everyone will be back to no...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said it will begin selling its grain silos during 2021. SAGO has 3.3 MMT of grain storage but there has been no confirmation on how much may be offered for sale. Aswan Shipping of Qatar found that one...
GMO Battle Ahead; GMO Barrier to Trade
GMO Battle Ahead The future of farming, which is to say producing enough food under the duress of climate change and with less burden on the environment will require more rapid genetic changes to plants. This requires embracing new breeding techniques and that is well understood by some EU poli...
Not on My Turf
In 1968, the U.S. had 29 percent of the global market for wheat flour and Turkey had a 0.004 percent share. By 2019, The U.S. share was down to 3.4 percent and Turkey dominated the market with a 41.4 percent share. Turkey achieved this shift despite having a relatively uncompetitive wheat produ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria is reported to have covered most of its wheat needs into 2022 through arrangements with Russia. Shipments of wheat are expected to continue from Russia to Syria through the end of June. There was a comment in the Russian press that w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s government has increased the wheat demand estimates for 2021 by 2 MMT to 29.5 MMT/yr. If this revised estimate is correct, it will probably mean another wheat crisis for the country with wheat imports of as much as 3...
What Could Go Wrong?
The unclassified portion of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s latest “Global Trends” report is pollyannish next to what wargamers are theorizing. The report categorizes risks into four categories: demographics, the environment, economics, and technology. On agriculture,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Muslim month Ramadan, a period of fasting, prayer, reflection and family time, begins today and ends 12 May. Business in Muslim countries will be a little more difficult due to changes in government and office working hours durin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA After the problem with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the Egyptian government is said to be looking at the possibility of expanding the canal. There has also been some talk of a new canal from the Gulf of Aqaba, through Israel, to...
Face of Lobbying Changes; African Opportunity
Face of Lobbying Changes WTO members led by India and South Africa are pushing for a waiver from Intellectual Property (IP) protections for any goods related to COVID-19. Specifically, they want to freely replicate the vaccines that have been developed by private companies like Pfizer, Mo...
Ag Review - March 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue examines the oilseeds, produce and organic food markets, agriculture policy under the Biden Administration, as well as analysis from China, the Middle East, and Africa. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There hasn’t been this much news coverage of the Suez Canal since the crisis in 1956. Happily, the worst of the problem seems to be over with the grounded vessel now cleared and only the significant back-up of vessels to be dea...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Grain and feed ingredient importers in Turkey will find that import prices have increased considerably after a drop of about 14 percent in the value of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar. Some experts are saying that the drop co...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The latest FAO report on Yemen shows that the 2020 grain harvest is down by about 5 percent at 365,000 MT and only covers less than 20 percent of the country's grain needs. Imports for 2021 are expected to be at 4.3 MMT: 3.2 MMT of w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Afghanistan officials say the country may need to import as much as 3 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 due to expected very low rainfall levels. According to some reports the rainfall will be down by 30 percent which could reduce local wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Wheat farmers in parts of Pakistan are complaining that government set wheat prices are going to lead to greatly increased smuggling and shortages of wheat supplies in some areas. There is a lot of confusion about prices with areas l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Karachi port says that it has handled 2.5 MMT of imported wheat in the last four months. Wheat imports were mainly from Ukraine, Russia, and Germany. 200,000 MT of wheat has been discharged in February so far with another...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Regional buyers/importers of wheat continue to watch the Russia situation very closely. As can be seen by the Russia wheat export numbers further down in this report, Russia is a very significant wheat supplier to the Middle East and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Sri Lanka has decided to lease underutilized land to investors for one year in the expectation of producing 250,000 MT of additional maize for animal feed use. The land will only be made available to local investors. In 2020 Sri Lank...
Sustainability Standards Setting; Addressing China
Sustainability Standards Setting There has been concern that addressing climate change and pursuing sustainability becomes a conduit for protectionism. Already, proponents for Africa are asking for recognition of the realities of agriculture on the Continent and requesting policy space. Others...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Cosco Shipping Ports bought a 40 percent interest in privately owned Red Sea Gateway Terminal that operates its own container terminal in Saudi’s Jeddah Port. The terminal handles...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy has seen its last quarter of 2020 sales drop by 46 percent but profits for the period were up by 7 percent. Profit growth was due mainly to increased margin on export business to Egypt, Jordan and o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that the revenues from the Suez Canal are down by about 3 percent in 2020 to $5.61 billion. The government feels that 2021 revenues will be about the same level unless there are further COVID-19 related shipping problem...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Reports in Nigeria say that the backlog for vessel discharge can be as long as one month and that the cost of moving a container from the port into Nigeria can be as high as $4,000 per container. Dozens of ships are waiting for disch...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iraq has devalued its currency by 20 percent, scrapping their old “official” exchange rate. Iraq’s financial situation has become very difficult due to the drop in prices for crude oil and oil products. Iraq does im...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Bangladesh, the “advanced income tax” on wheat imports has been lifted due to importers declaring much of their wheat as “duty-free” durum wheat. The tax had been 5 percent on ordinary wheat but nothing on...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Agriculture Ministry says that about 3.63 million acres (3.5 million feddans) will be planted in wheat in 2020 – planting began in mid-November with the harvest starting in April. This forecast by the Ministry is...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA An electrical fire at the main grain silo in Tartous Syria has meant that 35,000 MT of wheat had to be moved to other storage. The wheat was not damaged by the fire but there was some damage to the silos – total damage to the s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA It is reported in Egypt that the government cabinet supports a plan to grant tariff exemption to grain importers for the 14 percent freight VAT charge. The freight VAT, based on estimated freight costs, has created serious cost premiums for export fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Update MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s state owned ADQ (formerly Abu Dhabi Development Holdings) has purchased a 45 percent stake in Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC). The actual purchase price has not been disclosed. LDC has 18,000 employees and 2019 turnover...
Perpetuating Dependence; 2021 Agenda
Perpetuating Dependence Members of the African Union want the EU to subsidize Africa’s capacity for producing value-added goods, and then they want Europe to import the resulting products. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is saying that Europe could concede better preferential access for g...
Sudan Overweight in Livestock
Sudanese officials have reportedly spoken to U.S. officials about Khartoum’s aspirations to both join the WTO, and export agricultural products to America like livestock products. The World Bank is also pushing Sudan to emphasize its food and livestock exports in the wake of collapsed pet...
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Lebanon officials have said that the Beirut port silos will be demolished due to the extensive damage caused by the recent explosion in the port. The silos contained about 45,000 MT of grain at the time of the explosion and none of t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkey has protested to the WTO about the Philippines extending its antidumping duties on Turkish flour. The Philippines intends to extend the duty by three years. It is interesting to note that, even with the antidumping duty, Turke...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA An atlas of Global Surface Water has just been published which shows the changes in surface water supply in the last 35 years – more than 4 million satellite images were analyzed along with data from the Google Earth platform...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Reports in Nigeria say that some imported maize has arrived but that the moisture content is too high for immediate use in poultry feed. A total of 262,000 MT of maize was allowed to be imported and has arrived. Syria’s Economy Minis...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Consumer Price Index for “urban consumers” is said to have increased 3.8 percent in August with the year to date increase at 107.5 percent. In the past month meat and poultry prices have moved lower while cereals...
Wheat-Rice Substitution
In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. This is true, but it can also be said that traditional wheat consumers eat more rice when given access to it. Southeast Asian countries l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Jordan reports wheat stocks on hand of 1.35 MMT – enough, they say, to cover all requirements for 17 months. Annual consumption of wheat in Jordan is about 880,000 MT but Jordan only produces about 25,000 MT of wheat per year...
When Price is a Poor Indicator
Few markets are as distorted as those involving agriculture. Governments typically impose higher tariffs on food to support domestic production even when it is at the expense of consumer welfare. Some governments will even starve their own people during wars or due to geopolitical objectives. A...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There is a great deal of concern in North Africa about the effect that the second wave of COVID-19 will have on the still limited tourist business. Tourist travel had started to recover when lockdowns were lifted and tourist places i...
Wine Sovereignty; Pick Your Poison
Wine Sovereignty In a three-page joint declaration, fifteen states want flexibility to expand their production and self-sufficiency in wine, beer, and cheese through coupled support programs. They urged that there should be no restrictions and want “flexibilities… [and] not be requ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Algeria’s change in wheat specifications for bug damage should allow Black Sea exporters to apply to be certified suppliers to Algeria. The change in bug damage – up from 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent only affects 12.5 perce...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will trade wheat, vegetable oils, rice, and sugar. Invested capital will be close to $6 million. Delivery points will be set at specific governmen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan reports that the second 65,000 MT shipment of wheat has arrived from the Ukraine and another shipment of 69,000 MT is expected this week. These wheat imports are for the private sector. Inspection and clearance has been give...
Poor Advice for the Poor; Communism Kills COVID
Poor Advice for the Poor Former South African trade minister Rob Davies had some advice for developing countries that reflects the WTO’s leaderless, rudderless future. While correctly attacking the nativist policy of the Trump Administration, Davies doubled down on the nativist trade poli...
Notable Changes in U.S. Agricultural Trade
In the year of COVID, it is difficult to assign precise reasons for changes in trade flows but following are some observations about U.S. agricultural trade in the year to date: U.S. exports to India have taken the largest fall, but Bangladesh next door has seen the largest increase.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Competition Committee (CCP) has said that the government should reduce its role in the wheat sector and abandon its minimum support price fixing regime – this action should lead to an “increase in agricul...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The seventh cargo of wheat from India to Afghanistan has arrived in Iran’s Chabahar port for onward transport to Afghanistan – 8,800 MT were received in 352 containers. To date about 43,000 MT of the 75,000 MT of wheat donated...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA A group of Pakistan flour mills reportedly booked 60,000 MT of Black Sea wheat for September shipment at $227 MT CNF. Areas of Pakistan that have been under attack from desert locusts are now said to be seeing outbreaks of fall armyw...
Trade Finance Hole; Trade Policy Shift
Trade Finance Hole The U.S. Export-Import Bank votes to authorize up to $450 million in coverage to include agricultural commodities sold to Iraq. The official financing support may have become more critical as Reuters reports that commodity trade financing by banks is “drying up at a rat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The government of Lebanon has said that while the Beirut grain silos were destroyed, there should be no shortage of grain as discharge of grain vessels will move to Tripoli port. The government adds that there is about 1.5 months whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA News from the Middle East and North Africa is limited this week due to the Eid al Adha holidays in the area – the holiday is normally four or five days, depending on the country. The World Bank is providing $202 million for the...
Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage
Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats. The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...
Ag Review - July 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers such topics as the recovery in cattle prices, a new strategy in the corn market, a surge in the Chinese Dalian exchange, the role of soymeal in aquaculture, the importance of China...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The recent USDA-FAS report on Saudi Arabia’s barley trade says Arasco Saudi is marketing complete feed – Wafi brand – at a price about 20 percent lower than the price of imported barley. The report adds that this low pric...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran’s government has purchased 6 MMT of local wheat on its way to a total of 11 MMT. The wheat is being bought at a government set price to help control domestic wheat prices and to build wheat safety reserves. According to the late...
Cocoa Canary
Given their inelasticity, staple agricultural commodities are a poor indicator of economic health. However, luxury food items like cocoa may be a better indicator of the world’s recovery from the coronavirus. The December contract was up about 2 percent in today’s trading but remain...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s SAGO has sold parts of two of the four flour milling operations covered by their milling privatization program. The First Milling Company was sold to Raha Al Safi consortium for $540 million and the Third Milling...
China is Officially a Presidential Campaign Issue
Both President Trump and Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden have set their rhetorical sights on China policy as the 2020 Presidential campaign heats up. The Biden campaign unveiled its latest economic blueprint, a plan to “Ensure the Future is Made in all of America by All...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt and Pakistan are working on the possibility of Egypt importing meat and dairy products. Reports say that work is being done on revising health certificates and developing veterinary protocols to make this possible. The poultry...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Pakistan, it appears likely that the government will import as much as 1.4 MMT of wheat. International wheat prices to Pakistan are expected to be as much as 25 percent higher than the current price for local wheat. The government says...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA According to the June EU MARS report, there are variable weather conditions for the cereal campaign in North Africa with the only area of concern being drought in the western and central Maghreb. For the second year in a row, Morocco...
After the Virus, Clouds of Locusts
So far 2020 has been difficult, to put it mildly. It started out on a high note with an apparent truce between the U.S. and China when the Phase One trade agreement was signed in mid-January. But it has been downhill from there. The big issue, of course, is the global coronavirus pandemic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan has lifted the ban on the interprovincial transport of wheat and has also removed the import duty on wheat. Wheat and wheat flour shortages have developed in some parts of the country and these government actions are expecte...
Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters
Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that 3.1 MMT of local wheat have been purchased by the government. The targeted purchase level of 3.6 MMT is expected to be reached. Pakistan has removed the ban on the transportation of wheat between provinces and has tempor...
Trade War Threatens WTO
Beijing is backing Amina Mohamed to become the next director-general of the WTO. China has invested heavily in Kenya and knows that an African would be more sympathetic to China retaining its “developing” country status while blocking some liberalization rules. By contrast, Washingt...
Parting Ways – The Strategy
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, west of Karachi, has received its first vessel of wheat and fertilizer that is being transshipped by truck to Afghanistan. Gwadar is a deep draft port that can handle large vessels and offers a shorter r...
Ag Review - May 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the COVID-19 impact on workers in the food sector, the interrelationship between supply/demand and exchange rates, developments in the Middle East, North Africa and China, details...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Gemcorp Commodities is reportedly supplying 200,000 MT of Russian wheat to Ethiopia with the results of a recent tender. Shipment will be of 11.5 percent protein wheat. Gemcorp supplied Ukraine and Argentina wheat to Ethiopia in 2019...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...
Faux Pas; Naturally Wrong
Faux Pas Technical level EU trade officials were meeting today to discuss how to put transatlantic trade relations back on a better course. The success of such an initiative was already in doubt but now French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has sunk the idea before it could even get past first...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Morocco has announced that the suspension of duty on common wheat will be extended beyond 15 June until the end of December 2020. With the local wheat harvest forecast to be much below normal the government wants to ensure that wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that local wheat purchases by the government are now at 1 MMT well on the way to the target of 3.6 MMT. However, local press says that purchases are actually closer to 600,000 MT. Coronavirus restrictions in Egypt do no...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Heavy rains that fell across a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural area last week slowed the arrival of trucks to export ports. The number of trucks arriving daily fell from 2,400 in the prior week week to 1,400 last week. The number of truck arrivals at southern ports was stil...
Sights on Africa; Worse than the Virus; Watershed Protection; Can’t Beat 'em, Join 'em
Sights on Africa Minxin Pei, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund says China gets blamed for practicing economic colonialism in Africa, but there have been large pitfalls for the Middle Kingdom. For one, the value of the assets in Africa that collateralized China’s loans have plung...
Oil and Food
The price of petroleum has plummeted, putting countries that are highly dependent on its export earnings into deep fiscal trouble. This should hinder their amount of foreign exchange and thus food imports beyond basic necessity. However, looking at the recent history of U.S. food exports to the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia’s SAGO purchased 60,000 MT of Ukraine wheat from SALIC (Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company). This is a direct purchase from a Saudi investment company overseas rather than an international tender...
Biblical Proportions
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins 24 April. Business is always more difficult during Ramadan due to shorter working hours, but this year will be even more difficult due to COVID-19 related lockdowns in many countries...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Despite the fact that farmers are still primarily focused on the soybean harvest, the corn harvest advanced 6 percent last week. The progress was larger than expected and put the total harvest at 32 percent complete. The faster harvest pace combined with clarity about movement restrictions...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Corn and wheat imports in the region could find sourcing more difficult with Romania banning exports of both for the next couple of months. Turkey is normally a buyer of Romanian corn as are most other eastern Mediterranean countries...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA: The Master of the M/V Tomini Destiny has refused to allow discharge of a bulk cargo in Bangladesh due to concerns over the added risk of COVID-19 from local stevedores. This is probably the first reported problem of this type, but it will...
Bulk Freight Rates Fall
Egypt is reportedly switching from purchasing grain FOB and then managing its own freight risks to buying C&F so that suppliers bear any higher costs in volatile markets. Freight rates have been falling and should continue to do so as the global economy goes into recession. Bulk shipping ch...
Threats to the Food System; Aid to Africa; Jumping the Shark
Threats to Food System A risk assessment of the impact of COVID19 on the U.S. food system includes the following: Only a small handful of countries have announced export bans on things like wheat and flour, items not needed in the U.S. Foods that are imported by Americans include high value p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA: Morocco has removed the import duty on soft wheat and durum wheat until 15 June. The Morocco Ag Ministry reports that soft wheat stocks will cover three months normal consumption but a sudden jump in demand related to COVID-19 will reduce...
Ag Review - March 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This month we look at the impact of the coronavirus, the remaking of our food systems, technology in agriculture, insights from China and South America and more. We also remember WPI founder Carole B...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates It might be a good idea for all people in the grain business, with an eye to COVID-19, to read section 21 of GAFTA contract #27: “Prevention of Shipment”. This section, which is included in most GAFTA contracts, helps to clarify buyer/seller situation in the case of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt has seen very unseasonal rains recently and there is concern that the local wheat crop may be damaged due to flooding in many areas. The complaints and worries about rain are not country wide as some agricultural products, like alfal...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...
Drought in Morocco
Drought in Morocco has become more frequent and the Casablanca-Settat region is experiencing a 78 percent rainfall deficit this year. Meteorologists says that drought in Morocco occurred once every ten years in the 20th century but over the past two decades it has been at five times that freque...
WASDE Wheat
USDA leaves U.S. wheat supply and demand 2019/20 in the March WASDE. The global outlook for wheat is for higher production, increased consumption and exports, and lower ending stocks. Higher production forecasts in India and Argentina more than offsetting reductions in Turkey...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo Poultry has reported a 20.7 percent drop in profits for 2019. Total sales of Cairo Poultry also dropped by about 3.8 percent. The Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile in Ethiopia is a major source of disagre...
Potential SRE Challenge Amid Oil Market Bust
Energy markets are being buffeted by a number of global events and collapsing oil prices are putting ethanol under pressure. The nearby ethanol futures contract dropped this morning below $1.20/gal, which is the record low close set in November 2018. The contract closed at $1.2229/gal. Of cours...
Oil and Agriculture
An oil war has begun between Saudi Arabia and Russia and its impacts are important for agriculture. Energy products are key inputs, affecting field work costs, fertilizer prices and ultimately marketing. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) had predicted an average oil price in 2020 of arou...
Locust in East Africa
While most of the world is narrowly focused on COVID-19, East Africa faces the same prospects for that human disease while also battling the fall army worm and the desert locust. The locust outbreak alone is said to be the worst in 25 years for East Africa and the worst in 70 years for Kenya sp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has said that wheat production for 2020 should reach about 9.5 MMT with between 3.0 and 3.5 MMT being purchased by the government. According to U.S. export inspection information, Egypt’s purchase of U.S. soybeans doub...
Competition in Africa Heats-up
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt reports holding strategic wheat reserves covering 4.7 months consumption. Officials in the Ukraine say they intend to “build a closer relationship with Egypt” for grain logistics and investments. Grain shipments...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has announced that the population of the country has just reached 100 million people. Egypt will set up its first commodity exchange by January 2021 – wheat, corn, rice and sugar are the initial commodities that will b...
African Century
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports that the only change for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates The coronavirus has hit the grain business with the Global Grain Asia conference in Singapore being postponed for at least three months. The conference is expected to be held in late June rather than early March 2020. MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Egypt has ex...
U.S. – Kenya Have Little Ag Trade
The U.S. and Kenya announced yesterday the initiation of bilateral free trade talks under the rules of the Trade Promotion Authority law. The U.S. wants it to be the first of several with African countries. Per the Legatum Institute, the African continent is the most prosperous it has ever been...
Phase One Breakdown; EU/UK Breakdown; Plant Protection Addiction; U.S. – Africa Approach
Phase One Breakdown Ukraine just sold 15 cargoes of soybeans to China and officials in Kiev say they do not expect the coronavirus to impact their grain exports to the Middle Kingdom. Yet, China has forewarned that the coronavirus may cause it to reduce ag purchases from the U.S. Further dampen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Pakistan has declared a national emergency due to the spread of desert locusts in the eastern part of the country. They say that it is the worst infestation in 20 years – one that could decimate local grain crops. The locust...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS Iran remains the largest regional buyer of Indian soymeal (soybean extract). A total of 130,000 MT was shipped to MENA in the April/December 2019 crop period with just over 87,000 MT going to Iran. However, Iran’s imports ar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA COMMENTS The government of Pakistan has announced that 400,000 MT of wheat will be imported, duty free, to cover the existing wheat shortage and to get wheat flour prices back to a more normal level. The importation will be allowed up unti...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt says that it will establish a commodities exchange for the trading of items that will include wheat, sugar, corn and rice – both locally produced and imported. They say that it will be in place in the next 36 to 48 weeks. Several q...
Evolving Persian Diet
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have a long history, being particularly intense since 1979. Although food has not been a formal part of the sanctions imposed by Washington, their adverse impact on Iran’s economy have nonetheless impacted dietary consumption. Once a major wh...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The ports of Alexandria and Dekheila on the Mediterranean in Egypt have reopened after being closed for two days due to bad weather. Ships at berth were allowed to continue loading or discharging but no vessels were allowed to enter or leave t...
Perspectives on Oil Markets After the U.S. Airstrike
The U.S. drone strike on Major General Qassem Soleimani marked a change in U.S. policy toward Iran. For the past year or more, the Trump Administration has positioned its Iranian policy as a de-escalation of military conflict and an increase in economic sanctions, having pulled out of the Iran...
Coming Decade of Asian Growth to “Energize” Global Trade
Since the post-World War II era and the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the WTO, there has been one general rule of thumb: economic growth in developing countries drives commodity demand, be it for energy, raw materials or agriculture and fo...
Ephemeral Market Reaction
Markets reportedly reacted today to the U.S. killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani by falling in values and the price of oil rising. However, it is a classic example of a knee-jerk reaction. Middle East tensions run through the region’s history with the larger events in recent dec...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Morocco has announced that the duty on durum and soft wheat imports will be suspended from 1 January - 30 April 2020. This is being done to “ensure a regular supply of wheat and to maintain price stability”. Trade experts say that...
Ag Review - December 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the trade war impacts, oil and ethanol developments, a potential next cattle ranching frontier, farm proposals and more. ...
Oilseed Highlights - Containers; Biodiesel; China Imports
Record High Soybean Container Exports Monday’s export inspections report indicated that USDA personnel inspected 1,083,866 MT of soybeans during the week ending December 19. Included in that amount was 113,271 MT of soybeans to be exported in containers. That was an unusually large...
Awkward Trade Policy; Socialism’s Decline; Africa’s Emergence
Awkward Trade Policy President Trump’s trade war has been highly damaging to U.S. agriculture but the fruition of agreements with Japan, Mexico and Canada and especially China have undermined the criticisms by his Democratic opponents for the presidency. However, it has not prevented thei...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Iran is reported to have bought as much as 1 MMT of wheat recently with quite a bit from Russia, but also significant purchases said to be from Germany. Iran’s total wheat imports for 12 months are expected to reach about 3 MMT. Reports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Importers in the region of Argentina grains, oilseeds and derivatives should expect higher prices in coming days as the new Argentina government has increased export taxes. The tax has been changed from a flat rate per U.S. dollar value to a p...
SSA Commodity Opportunity
Europe has traditionally taken a stronger interest in its former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with China becoming aggressively involved in recent years. The U.S. has limited its view to that of foreign aid assistance, despite the fact that its own population includes the largest number of ed...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The FAO has announced a three-year program on the “Global Action for Fall Armyworm Control”. Its plan is to raise $500 million to support this program through the establishment of a Global Action Fund which is looking for internati...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. According to Australian information, about 13 percent of all farmland is foreign owned. One problem that has come to light is that there seems t...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...
Drought Doesn't Discriminate
Drought Doesn’t Discriminate Despite the frequent battle with drought faced by its farmers, South Africa has rejected adoption of a drought-tolerant maize claiming it is no better than conventional seed. However, there are several pertinent factors that require attention in any such analy...
Ag Review - November 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the next farm bill, the future of ag technology from artificial meat to drones, potential shifts in production to different crops, the outlook for U.S. – Chinese rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un has received a Euro 6 million loan jointly from the Industrial Bank of Turkey (TSKB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). This loan is part of a Euro 100 million loan program by the tw...
Oilseed Highlights: Egypt's Soybean Production, DDGS Exports to Australia and New Zealand
Egypt Wants to Double Soybean Production The government of Egypt has announced its plan to more than double its production of soybeans to reduce its dependence on vegoil imports. The government says the country produced 59,000 MT of soybeans in 2018/19 from 14,800 hectares. Its goal is to plant...
A Faint Light from Golden Rice
As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS It looks to be good news for grain importers as most experts in the ocean freight business are expecting dry-bulk freight rates to be steady to lower over the next year. The long expected rally in prices due to new low-sulfur requirement level...
Sorghum’s Row
Sorghum was once the darling crop to grow because it was cheaper to produce than corn and environmentally friendly since it required less water. U.S. farmers nearly tripled the amount of sorghum they grew between 2011 and 2015, but since then production of the crop has fallen by 40 percent. Lik...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS: As had been rumored in recent weeks, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan have now signed an official “memorandum of understanding” for the import of Russian and Kazakh wheat. However, according to the deputy Ag Minister the agreement will...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Wheat buyers in the MENA region will have to get used to higher prices for Russian wheat as farmers are holding back on selling wheat and Russian export prices have moved about 12 percent higher in the past few weeks. Reports in Russia say tha...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Depending on which news source you choose to believe, Iran could import 3 - 6 MMT of wheat in 2019/20. Iran is suffering from a bad year for wheat with floods in some areas and drought in others. The amount of wheat to be imported is probably...
Underconsumption Areas
Building demand becomes a central focus during times of abundant resource surpluses. Asia is the easiest due to its demographics and GDP growth but there is a renewed look at Africa. Countries like Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Tanzania and Ghana all have economies growing at 6...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil, U.S. Soy Sales, Egypt Vegoil Tender, Argentine Election
India’s Vegoil Imports to Increase by 1 MMT Per Year B.V. Mehta, the head of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), says India imports of vegoil are expected to grow by an additional 1 MMT per year over the next five years. India already is the world’s top importer of v...
Food Demand Present and Future
In recent years, a number of agricultural futurists have expressed concern about the ability of the world to increase the food supply enough to feed the world’s population in 2050. The world population currently is about 7.3 billion people, and although the rate at which population is gro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Iran has announced plans to increase the area for wheat planting by 500,000 hectares to 2.25 million hectares. The increased planting may allow the wheat crop to reach 5.2 million MT, assuming good rainfall. Iran is still expected to have to i...
Growing African Food Market
Long considered a basket case, scarred by colonialism and on permanent aid dependency, Sub-Saharan Africa is receiving more attention these days for its potential as a growth market. The World Bank predicts the region will grow faster this year than last, and so will imports of key agricultural...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The World Bank expects the Egyptian economy will grow by 5.8 percent this fiscal year which began 1 July 2019. Growth is expected to be much the same for 2020/21. Experts are very happy with the progress that Egypt has made with falling inflation, balanced bud...
S&DT Hypocrisy
The WTO operates as a democracy and it is said that democracies fail when the citizens ask for more than it can deliver. The Trump Administration goes to war with a majority of the WTO members at the next General Council meeting on 15 October. It will press its case that countries cannot concur...
Trade Policy Pickle; Africa Unshackles Science
Trade Policy Pickle The Chinese lowered expectations for any outcome from this week’s bilateral negotiations with the U.S. by taking off the table President Trump’s key demand of extracting the government’s heavy role in the economy. Some analysts are arguing that the 2020 Tru...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that the delay in discharging vessels in Khomeini Port is related to very heavy port volume. As much as 1 MMT of grain is reportedly waiting to be discharged from 20 bulk grain vessels and will be delayed for several weeks. Iran’s i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Lebanese millers have again protested strongly against the “official” rate of the U.S. dollar in the country. The rate has not changed in about 20 years with the Lebanese pound pegged at 1,507 to the U.S. dollar. With the shortage of dollars from L...
Impeachment’s Implications; Zimbabwe’s Crisis
Impeachment’s Implications U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) says that her Party now has “the facts” to initiate impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump. It is a turn of events, but it may change less than would typically be expected. The most recent example...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS As had been expected, Morocco is dropping its soft wheat import duty from 135 percent to 35 percent effective 1 October. Morocco’s harvest dropped 49 percent this year due to poor rainfall. Wheat imports will be used to rebuild the national reserves and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced that they will provide more wheat to Sudan – a total of 540,000 MT of wheat has been pledged with more than 200,000 MT shipped to date. Both countries have set up an aid package of about $3 billion for the economic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The latest FAO report on Syria forecasts an increase in the 2019 wheat crop by more than 80 percent to 2.2 MMT while barley does even better, increasing by 400 percent to 2.0 MMT. The planted area for grains was greatly increased in 2019 becau...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS After last week’s wheat tender Egypt’s GASC has booked 2.13 MMT of wheat this buying year – 935,000 MT from Russia, 660,000 MT from Romania, 475,000 MT from Ukraine and 60,000 MT from France. Egypt has announced that customs will no longer us...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt may face serious problems as climate change is raising the water level of the Mediterranean and allowing saltwater to run back into the Nile River and Delta which is making some farming areas unusable. While the effect is very serious in...
Tax on U.S. Consumers; Subsidizing China
Tax on U.S. Consumers Under the threat of even larger antidumping duties, Mexico agreed to the demand from Washington that its tomato shipments northward be priced higher and face inspections. U.S. tomato imports from Mexico will be subject to floor prices of $0.31-0.59/pound. American consumer...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the Eid Al Adha period in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region. Banks and government offices closed for several days, and news of grain matters has been very limited. With Saudi Arabia changing its standards for w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what were their decisions regarding tough issues like protesters in Hong Kong and Donald Trump’s trade war? Given the Chinese troops that h...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before and dropping in those that started quoting for 2019 production. Meanwhile, there was little change in other regions. The fact that harvesting...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is adjusting its wheat import requirements for implementation as of the next tender. Traders expect that a change in the bug damage limitation will allow Russia to take a large share of the Saudi wheat business, particularly since...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July-2 August 2019 Domestic price development was atypical for this time of year with increases in the European part of Russia that usually don’t occur in August. The reason for this was high demand from processors. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat (12.5 perc...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Power of Agriculture; China Unforced Error; African Hope
Power of Agriculture In the 2016 presidential campaign, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won a plurality but not a majority of Iowa Republican votes after saying he opposed the ethanol mandate or Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton said she supported “advanced bi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS A feed protein production facility is going to be established in Saudi Arabia. It is reportedly intended to produce as much as 50,000 MT of animal feed protein annually through the processing of methane gas. Construction is expected to begin i...
Reshaping Markets
The renminbi fell below 7 to the U.S. dollar this past Friday, and that raises the risk of at least two possible developments: 1) the exodus of money out of China; and 2) a declaration by Washington that Beijing is a currency manipulator. The situation adds one more variable to an already tense...
Oilseed Highlights: China Inspects Argentine Soy Crush Plants; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Egypt’s Vegoil Tender
China to Inspect Argentine Soy Crush Plants The Argentine agriculture secretary’s chief of staff has indicated a Chinese delegation will begin a visit to Argentina on 18 August. The objective of the trip, which is scheduled to last two weeks, is to inspect the soybean processing plants of...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 July 2019 Domestic prices decreased more slowly in regions where there was movement from old crop to new harvest grain and grew in areas that had already made the transition. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat (12.5 percent protein) export price dropped $1/MT to $...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s SAGO has advised that the pre-qualified flour mill bidders will finish their due diligence and present their completed offers for the government flour mills this week. It has not announced who the qualified bidders are, bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The latest USDA-FAS report on Turkey says that very dry weather could reduce the wheat and barley production in the country. Wheat production could be as much as 3.0 MMT lower to 17.8 MMT with barley production down by 600,000 MT to 7.9 MMT --...
Freight Ignores Geopolitics
Iran is seizing foreign-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is shooting down drones in the region. Analysts say that Tehran is intentionally driving up oil prices to obtain global pushback against the American sanctions that are crippling the Iranian economy. They also warn th...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Race to Fix Labor
U.S. agriculture utilized a quarter-million temporary migrant workers last year under the H-2A agricultural guest worker program, and it was still far from enough labor. The problem, say farmers, is that the program is slow and too complex. Even though most applications for H-2A labor are filed...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has advised that fuel prices will be reviewed every three months after recent increases of up to 30 percent. The subsidized fuel prices there will be based on world fuel prices as well as the value of the Egyptian pound against the USD...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices are mixed across Europe and the Black Sea today as the market continues to react to the WASDE report. French prices are slightly higher after the agency reduced its EU ending stocks forecast and remain above other regional offers, which will likely curtail export pote...
Economic Chemistry Power; Plan B; Role of Government
Economic Chemistry Power The major powers (Europe, Russia, U.S. and China) have long used their dominant economic influence to coerce other nations into compliant policies. The U.S. has added labor and environment positions to its trade pacts ever since NAFTA in 1994. In its most recent trade a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS According to the EU’s latest Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) report, drought conditions in eastern Morocco and western Algeria have adversely impacted cereal crops, but eastern Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have all had a go...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions; Deference to Israel
Xi, Trump Should Reverse Positions China’s position is that if a bilateral trade agreement is reached with the U.S., both sides must remove the punitive tariffs that each imposed on the other over the past year. Conversely, President Trump insists that the 25 percent duties he placed on s...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw prices mostly lower as wheat futures came under pressure from the advancing HRW harvest. Trading volume was moderate overnight as funds continue to liquidate long positions. Open interest is growing for corn and wheat, likely indicating that end users are extending coverag...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt is talking to France about 35 million Euros for the funding of small and medium agriculture organizations. The discussions were announced by the French ambassador in a speech last week. It is expected that much of the funding could go to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 June 2019 Domestic prices quoted in the South, Volga Valley and Black Soil were mainly for 2019 production, which is why they dropped dramatically. As harvesting progresses, such sharp decreases will spread to other regions. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt reports that the government has purchased 3.66 MMT of local wheat. The total is expected to increase as it will buy wheat until the end of June. The Romanian wheat cargo that had been rejected in Egypt will now be allowed to enter the co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...
Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri
Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s military capacity. His admonitions have been backed by NATO’s secretary general and major media organizations like the Financial Times. I...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
End of GMO Panic; Contrasts and Irony
End of GMO Panic When genetically modified wheat was curiously found in an Oregon field in 2013, some importers cancelled their shipments, others stepped up inspection of American wheat, and there were of course lawsuits. There were headlines in 2016 when GM wheat was found in in a field in Was...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the post-Ramadan Eid al Fitr period of religious holidays in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and all Muslim businesses were closed either for a number of days or the entire time. As a result, the amount of grai...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week as the hot, dry weather over parts of Russia did not scare it. Weather maps are showing ample soil and subsoil moisture accumulated during April and May in the southern region. High temperatures in June are common there, and the wheat is t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Aswan area is said to have the country’s first outbreak of fall armyworms, and the government is reportedly taking immediate action against this threat. The latest FAO report on Tunisia shows wheat and barley production for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few weeks. However, basis dropped slightly last week as China was not active in Argentina. A cargo was traded at 72N for July early in the week...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Reports from Syria indicate that thousands of acres of wheat have been destroyed by fire, attributed to arson by most accounts, and the crop losses are said to be valued at about $6 million. ISIS is said to have taken credit for those fires as...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of 3.6 MMT. Pakistani officials indicate that the local wheat crop will total about 24.3 MMT, down from 25.6 MMT last year, and the stocks are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The U.S. trade war has been leading the soybean market for several months, but the latest developments (for the worse) have certainly enhanced the market’s focus on it. The Chinese decided to move on Brazilian soybeans last week and secured some Argentine origin a...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Update MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that wheat crops in some areas are up 30 percent. Production is expected to total about 14 MMT in 2019, which will enable the country to remain self-sufficient into 2020. As recently as 2014, it had to import up to 35 perc...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week due to the absence of export demand for old crop as well as the bearish outlook of last Friday’s USDA reports. The USDA estimate for the Russian crop of 77 MMT is probably conservative as most Russian analysts’ numbers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria will pay about $359/MT for the wheat it purchases from farmers, up nearly $20/MT versus last year’s price. The last crop there was the smallest in 30 years, and it is expected that the country will have to import 1.5 MMT of wheat t...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Last week Argentina posted a few offers in the local market, although volume was small with the labor strike on Tuesday and Labor Day holiday on Wednesday. Farmers are willing sellers at higher prices. Harvest progress reached 59.3 percent last week, per the Buenos Aires Grai...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week due to the absence of fresh demand for old crop wheat as well as the favorable weather prospects for the first half of May. Buyers/consumers in the main destinations seem to be covered for the next two months since they are on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 April 2019 Domestic grain prices declined or remained stable in RUB expression except for milling rye prices, which rose slightly. However, they all decreased in USD expression due to weakening of the ruble. The average milling wheat export price fell to $219/MT FOB...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey says it will be a “key player in global grain” with plans to greatly expand storage/handling facilities and a long-term goal of becoming a hub for grain shipments out of the Black Sea region. It has been a major wheat flour...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week in sympathy with the EU and U.S. markets. With its export surplus almost entirely gone, Russian wheat is not competing with French or U.S. origins to the major destinations. Weather conditions in southern Russia and Ukraine co...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression due to the strengthening of the ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat sea export price fell to $222/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As of 15 April, Egypt had bought approximately 365,000 MT of local wheat against its purchase target of 3.6 MMT. Wheat buyers from Morocco and Tunisia were in the U.S. last week to closely examine its wheat infrastructure. The group visi...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market was very slow last week as it was shortened by the Easter-related holiday. It was even slower today as Monday is also a holiday in Europe with most of the freight departments, which are mainly based there, not working. A few cargoes were traded last w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 April 2019 Domestic prices fluctuated in the South and Volga Valley but mostly decreased in other regions. The average milling wheat sea export price fell to $224/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropped to $196-200/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt had rejected a cargo of French wheat due to high ergot levels, but the 63,000 MT were found to be within required standards upon retesting. As a result, the wheat will be discharged and released from Safaga port. The FAO reports that Ira...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market once again remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic prices are reportedly around $3-4/MT higher. It has exported approximately 32.5 MMT so far, which is close to the total at this date last year. The export pace is expected to slow significa...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables
USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 April 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated in RUB expression but decreased in USD expression due to the weaker ruble. The average milling wheat sea export price was unchanged at $226/MT FOB Black Sea, but purchase prices grew in RUB expression and decreased in USD ex...
More Straws in the Wind
- Today is WASDE day with USDA’s release of this month’s edition. The April WASDE is normally uneventful with South American crop production levels largely narrowed down to within a couple of MMT of the final numbers. Domestic and world demand trends have been established, and with...